The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations

Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town

Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer

Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer

Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole

Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.

Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter

Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Hot: Zip

Not: Boyle

Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.

Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire

Hot: Rapace

Not: Zip

Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low

Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.

Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom

Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN

Hot: Steinfeld

Not: Zip

Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.

Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network

Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Damon

Not: Harris, Bill Murray

Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.

Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter

Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS

Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer

Not: Zip

Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.

The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):

Predicted Nominations:

6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter

5 nominations- The Social Network

4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS

2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR

Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:

7 combined- The Fighter

6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone

4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low

3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole

As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.

Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.

News from The Clearinghouse

AwardsDaily
The King’S Speech Gets a Poster http://bit.ly/cKpwew

The OC #3

Danny Boyle, Aron Ralston and James Franco of 127 HOURS

The Third Edition of The Oscar Clearinghouse...featuring some backlash and a charge or two.

Sources: Awards Daily, Film Misery, In Contention, David Poland/Gurus of Gold/Movie City News, Scott Feinberg, Awards Circuit, and Film Experience.

TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) [TIE] THE KING'S SPEECH and The Social Network, 3) True Grit, 4) Toy Story 3, 5) [TIE] 127 HOURS and Inception, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) BLACK SWAN, 10) The Fighter

Next Five: Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Fair Game, Hereafter, Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Secretariat

Hot: True Grit, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK

Not: Hereafter

Comment: True Grit continues its assault on the top ten list...despite having been seen by no one. I mentioned in the last post that this is showing us the power of a really good trailer...and I think that continues to be true. And despite its continued place atop the Best Picture list, The Social Network may be suffering from some backlash. That's showing itself more in the other races...But even in the Best Pix race, it's been caught by THE KING'S SPEECH in the last 2 weeks after enjoying a fairly substantial lead in the category. Big boosts to Winter's Bone and THE WAY BACK the last 2 weeks. And Hereafter is dropping like a stone.

Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 5) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Coen Brothers/True Grit, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Dropping Out: Doug Liman and David O. Russell

Hot: ARONOFSKY, WEIR and Granik

Not: LEIGH, Cholodenko

Comment: The Fighter's fortunes maybe on the wane as well as Russell's status would indicate. The Winter's Bone boom also shows up in this category with Granik on the list for the first time. And Mike Leigh takes a hit...which I think portends some bad future news for ANOTHER YEAR which is too bad because it's one of my favorite films of the year.

Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 5) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole

The Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids Are All Right, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Anne Hathawy/Love and Other Drugs, Diane Lane/Secretariat, Sally Hawkins/Made in Dagenham

Dropping Out: Naomi Watts

Hot: Diane Lane

Not: Watts

Comment: I saw some critical advocacy last week for the notion that I've held since I saw ANOTHER YEAR in Telluride... that Lesley Manville should be in the Supporting Category...so we'll see.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine

The Next Five: JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Jesse Eisenberg/Social Nework, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game

No one dropped out

Hot: No one

Not: Bridges and Eisenberg

Comment: The first inkiling we have that the bloom may be coming off The Social Network rose. Eisenberg drops from # 5 to #7...and, listen, I've seen The Social Network since the last OC...and I'm a moderate fan of Fincher's and a BIG FAN of Sorkin. But...it's NOT a great film and Eisenberg's performance is the same thing he always does. Seriously, I see no definable character difference between his Zuckerberg and the kid he plays in Zombieland! I know I'm speaking heresy here...but it's just an OK film with OK performances...

Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 4) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom

The Next Five: Miranda Richardson/Dagenham, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Kristin Scott Thomas/Nowhere Man, Amy Adams/The Fighter, Marion Cotillard/Inception

Dropping Out: Fanning, Hershey, Hall

Hot: Weaver, Spacek, Thomas, and Cotillard

Not: Richardson

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. At this point Weist and Carter seem likely locks (although I even wonder about Weist). It's a category up for grabs.

Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Sam Rockwell/Conviction, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

The Next Five: Andrew Garfield/Social Network, Justin Timberlake/Social Network, Josh Brolin/True Grit, Bill Murray/Get Low, Jeremy Renner/The Town

Dropping out: Damon, Cassel

Hot: Rockwell, Murray and Renner

Not: Garfield

Comment: Another category that seems to indicate that there's a backlash against Social Network. A month ago when we published the first OC for this year both Garfield and Timberlake were among the likely nominees. Now they're both in the "lurking" category...and Garfield, who has always been the more likely of the two to actually get a nomination slid a good piece in the last 2 weeks. BTW, I still think Colin Farrell deserves a nod for THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) 127 HOURS, 5) True Grit

The Next Five: Rabbit Hole, How to Train a Dragon, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Dropping Out: Miral

Hot: 127 HOURS, How to Train Your Dragon and The Town

Not: THE WAY BACK, Love and Other Drugs

Comment: A big charge from 127 HOURS the last two weeks. This category is one that DOESN'T show any real loss of ground for Social Network.

Original Screenplay: 1) THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Inception, 5) Blue Valentine

The Next Five: How Do You Know, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere

Hot: KING'S SPEECH, How Do You Know, and Blue Valentine

Not: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere

Comment: James Brook's new film (How Do You Know) makes its first appearance on the OC...it's a real joker in the deck...will we see it elsewhere in the next update? Rudd, Witherspoon, Nicholson???

And the numbers...if the above was correct...

Nominations in the Big 8 categories:

THE KING'S SPEECH-6

127 HOURS, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right-4

The Social Network, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, The Fighter-3

Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine-2

Combined "nominations" and "near nominations":

THE KING'S SPEECH, The Social Network, True Grit, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right-6

127 HOURS, Inception, ANOTHER YEAR, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, THE WAY BACK, Rabbit Hole-4

Get Low, Blue Valentine, Made in Dagenham-3

Fair Game, Love and Other Drugs, The Town, Toy Story 3-2

Telluride "nominations"- 17... "near nominations"- 6...

And, of course, the ritual reminder...there will be other nominations for Telluride films in technical categories, documentary categories and perhaps even animation...

Back around Thanksgiving!

The OC #2

Post-Toronto and half way through October, here is the updated Oscar Clearinghouse.

This issue uses the source material from: The Envelope, Awards Daily, In Contention, Gurus of Gold, Scott Feinberg, CinemaSight, The Film Experience and Film Misery

Telluride Pics in CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Toy Story 3 4, ) Inception, 5) True Grit, 6) 127 HOURS, 7) The Kids Are All Right, 8) ANOTHER YEAR, 9) The Fighter, 10) BLACK SWAN.

The Next Five: Hereafter, Fair Game, Winter's Bone, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole.

Dropping Out: Made in Dagenham, The Way Back

HOT: Toy Story 3, True Grit, Secretariat and Rabbit Hole

COLD: 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right

COMMENT: Man, what a good trailer can do. This list (and several others on the Clearinghouse this time around) shows that True Grit is Red Hot! And one assumes it's a result of the release of its teaser and theatrical trailers...and they are good. Rabbit Hole is finally getting some heat after its generally warm reception at Toronto. I'm going to say right now that the Best Picture race is between four films: Social Network, King's Speech, True Grit and Inception.

Best Director: 1) David Fincher/Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Christopher Nolan/Inception.

The Next Five: Coens/True Grit, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right, David O. Russell/The Fighter, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, Doug Liman/Fair Game

Dropping Out: John Cameron Mitchell/Rabbit Hole, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Coens

Cold: Russell

Comment: I think Boyle and Leigh are shaky in this category and that Fincher, Hooper and Nolan are probable locks even this far out. I'd almost bet money on the Coens getting a nomination if True Grit is half as good as I think it's going to be. So, either Leigh or Boyle would be the one's to suffer.

Best Actress: 1) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 2) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 3) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone

Next Five: Julianne Moore/Kids, Anne Hathaway/Love and Other Drugs, Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Naomi Watts/Fair Game, Sally Hawkins/Dagenham

Dropping Off: None

Hot: Julianne Moore

Cold: Hawkins

Comment: A real charge from Moore to snag a second best acting nom for Kids...

Best Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 3) JAMES FRANCO/127 HRS., 4) Robert Duvall/Get Low, 5) Jesse Eisenberg/Social Network.

Next Five: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Paul Giamatti/Barney's Version, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, Sean Penn/Fair Game.

Dropping Out: None

Hot: Jeff Bridges

Not: Mark Wahlberg

Comment: Bridges is a BIG beneficiary of the burgeoning True Grit surge.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Diane Weist/Rabbit Hole, 2) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/KING'S SPEECH, 3) Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, 4) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 5) Hailee Stienfeld/True Grit.

Next Five: Elle Fanning/Somewhere, Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom, Amy Adams/ The Fighter, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN, Rebecca Hall/The Town.

Dropping Out: Sissy Spacek

Hot: Diane Weist and Rebecca Hall

Not: Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver

Comment: Diane Weist has gone from barely in the nominee section all the way to the top of this category after the reception for Rabbit Hole following Toronto.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) GEOFFREY RUSH/KING'S SPEECH, 2) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network, 5) ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK.

Next Five: Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Justin Timberlake/The Social Network, James Brolin/True Grit, Matt Damon/True Grit, VINCENT CASSEL/BLACK SWAN.

Dropping Out: Bill Murray and Dustin Hoffman

Hot: Ed Harris and Matt Damon

Not: Well...Murray and Hoffman

Comment: I won't be surprised if both Brolin and Damon continue to move up the list if the True Grit groundswell continues. I also think Rush is the only lock at this point in this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) The Social Network, 2) Toy Story 3, 3) Winter's Bone, 4) Love and Other Drugs, 5) True Grit

Next Five: Rabbit Hole, THE WAY BACK, 127 HOURS, Miral, The Town.

Dropping Out: How to Train Your Dragon

Hot: True Grit

Not: Rabbit Hole

Comment: True Grit moving like gangbusters in this category too.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) ANOTHER YEAR, 2) The Kids Are All Right, 3) THE KING'S SPEECH, 4) Inception, 5) The Fighter

Next Five: BLACK SWAN, Somewhere, And 4 tied at the next spots: THE ILLUSIONIST, How Do You Know, Made in Dagenham, and Hereafter

Dropping Out: Blue Valentine

Hot: BLACK SWAN

Not: Nada

Comment: The only surprise to me here is that King's Speech isn't sitting at the #1 spot.

The Numbers: If the nominations were announced today and these picks were accurate...

Big Eight Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH 6,

The Social Network 5,

True Grit, Kids Are All Right, ANOTHER YEAR 4,

127 HOURS, Inception, The Fighter 3

Toy Story 3, BLACK SWAN, Winter's Bone, Rabbit Hole 2

Noms and Near Noms added together:

True Grit 7

KING'S SPEECH, Social Network, Kids Are All Right, The Fighter, BLACK SWAN 6

127 HOURS, Fair Game, ANOTHER YEAR, Rabbit Hole 4

Telluride Noms Total 16 plus another 8 near noms

One Week To Go

Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"

Anne Thompson at Indiewire (and on her way to the Venice Film Fest) essentially confirms "127 Hours," "Black Swan," Miral," "The King's Speech'" and "Never Let Me Go" on the list for TFF #37.

Those 5 would potentially make a great Telluride Film Festival all on their own.

Add to that the tantalizing hint this morning from Australia and our guess that we might see Peter Weir's "The Way Back"...could be phenomenal.

Another Day Closer...

Ben Affleck and Jeremy Renner in "The Town." Will that town be Telluride???

The 37th Telluride Film Festival is now only 16 days away and anticipation is building. Yesterday Jay A. Fernandez of The Hollywood Reporter had a big article with title guesses... Here's that link again:

http://tinyurl.com/2g6o29v

This afternoon, Kristopher Tapley at Incontention.com had a big post about Venice, Toronto, New York and (in the 5th paragraph, by extension) Telluride. That link is here:

http://tinyurl.com/2evdmbt

Putting the information together and doing some deductive reasoning you can come up with a possible Telluride list that would be potentially phenomenal. Two things stand out from the Tapley article. His comment that you can deduct the from the Toronto list and that Fernandez may have given away much of the lineup yesterday. So from that basis, what do you end up with??? Here are possibles that seem to be the logical extension of that information:

"Another Year" from Mike Leigh

"Biutiful" from Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu

"Black Swan" from Darren Aronofsky (that also relies on inferences from Anne Thompson at Indiewire)

"The Illusionist" from Sylvan Chomet

"Inside Job" from Charles Ferguson

"The King's Speech" from Tom Hooper

"Miral" from Julian Schnabel (at Venice but could overlap and we've been saying it for months)

"Never Let Me Go" from Mark Romanek

"Tamara Drewe" from Stephen Frears

"The Town" from Ben Affleck (at Venice but could overlap)

"127 Hours" from Danny Boyle (you gotta think it plays TFF like Slumdog did)

"Casino Jack" from George Hickenlooper

"You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" from Woody Allen

Tapley's article does make it pretty clear that Eastwood's "Hereafter," Goldwyn's "Conviction," Madden's "The Debt," Joffe's "Brighton Rock," Redford's "The Conspirator," and Mitchell's "Rabbit Hole" will NOT play in Telluride. And, of course, we had already pretty much ruled out Coppola's "Somewhere," Taymor's "The Tempest," and Fincher's "The Social Network."

Not on anyone's list anywhere...The Coen's "True Grit" and Malick's "The Tree of Life."

But if the above list is anywhere close...WOW!

Finally, a bunch of internet traffic agog today over the trailer for Aronofsky's "Black Swan". Here's the youtube link to it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jaI1XOB-bs

16 days...

Four Weeks To Go!

WILL JAVIER BARDEM MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEED ON COLORADO AVENUE???








With less than four weeks until the Patron's Brunch starts the weekend off for me, I thought I'd take a moment to assess where we are in terms of speculation about the films that will be playing at TFF #37. I've tired to divide these into categories that seem to make the most sense (at least to me) with almost a month to go before films begin to unspool...









The following is based on what has been speculated in the media, past trends, the Toronto and Venice listed films, Cannes results and wishful thinking. Take it for what it's worth (which probably isn't all that much).









Films that are I think have the best chance of being at Telluride: "Black Swan," Another Year," "127 Hours," "Miral," "Biutiful," and "Love and Other Drugs"









Sony Classics Films that likely will show: "Inside Job, " "Tamara Drewe," Of Gods and Men," and "Life Above All."









Other Cannes Films that could appear: "Certified Copy," "Poetry," and "On Tour"









Some films that have had very flimsy hints that they could show up in Telluride: "The King's Speech," "The Town, " and "Meek's Cutoff."









You have to figure Werner Herzog will be represented by either "The Cave of Forgotten Dreams" or "Happy People: A Year in the Tiaga" or both.









The "It Seems There Is No Way They'll Be In Telluride" List: (for a variety of reasons) "The Tempest," "The Social Network," The Eagle," "The Descendents," and "The Fighter."









Films about which there has been no mention in terms of Telluride, but could sneak in: "Bagman" (formerly "Casino Jack"), "Conviction" (formerly "Betty Ann Waters"), "Never Let Me Go," "Brighton Rock," Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives"(Palme D'Or winner), "Fair Game," "Somewhere," and "Blue Valentine."









Another interesting thought...last year at TFF #36, one of the biggest buzz generators was the Red Riding Trilogy...maybe the best buzz of anything from last year's fest. Could the TFF planners try something like that again? Does anything fit the bill? Yes and Yes. The sprawling "Carlos" (300 plus minutes according to imdb) which showed at Cannes and was very well received would seem to fit if the Telluride programmers wanted to go in that direction again. It certainly worked very well last year.









And finally...don't expect to see:









"True Grit"...the Coen Brothers certainly don't need to show at Telluride.




"Hereafter" neither does Clint Eastwood.




and "The Tree of Life"...enough people have said that Malick isn't ready to make me a believer...but you had to hope.

More for Venice...Less for Telluride?

Natalie Portman in Darren Arnofsky's "Black Swan"

The Playlist has a big story today about "probable" Venice Fest films. Check it out at:

http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/darren-aronofskys-black-swan-looking-to.html

Among films listed in the article that we thought might be on the Telluride short list are:

Black Swan (Aronofsky's follow-up to "The Wrestler")

The Town (Ben Affleck's new film)

The King's Speech (starring Colin Firth)

Others mentioned that we previously reported as likely going to Venice are: Somewhere, The American, and Miral.

And, again, Tree of Life continues to be an on-going mystery...