Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.
TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD
Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town
Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer
Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer
Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole
Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.
Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter
Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right
Hot: Zip
Not: Boyle
Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.
Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR
Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire
Hot: Rapace
Not: Zip
Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.
Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low
Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island
Hot: Zip
Not: Zip
Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.
Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom
Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN
Hot: Steinfeld
Not: Zip
Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.
Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network
Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK
Hot: Damon
Not: Harris, Bill Murray
Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.
Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter
Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham
Hot: Zip
Not: Zip
Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.
Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS
Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK
Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer
Not: Zip
Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.
The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):
Predicted Nominations:
6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter
5 nominations- The Social Network
4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right
3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS
2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR
Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:
7 combined- The Fighter
6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right
5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone
4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low
3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole
As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.
Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.
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