New York Announces...What's It Mean?/Inside Llewyn Music/Palo Alto Pics/A Look at The Fifth Estate/Reminders!

Good Tuesday All...things are moving and shaking as we get down under 10 days left until TFF #40.

NEW YORK ANNOUNCES...WHAT'S IT MEAN?

The New York Film Festival announced its lineup complete yesterday.  The NYFF organizers had previously announced their Opening -"Captain Phillips", Closing- "Her" and Special Gala-"The Secret Life of Walter Mitty".  Yesterday they added 32 films to the lineup.

The NYFF usually has a good deal of overlap with Telluride and I expect that this year that will be no different.

In 2010 the two fests shared: "Another Year", "Carlos", "Inside Job", "Le Quattro Volte", "Of Gods and Men"and "Poetry"(6).

In 2011: "The Descendants", "A Dangerous Method", "A Separation", Footnote", "George Harrison: Living in the Material World", "Goodbye First Love", "Le Havre", "Pina", "Shame", "The Artist", "The Kid with a Bike" and "The Turin Horse" (12).

In 2012: "Amour", "Barbara", ""Frances Ha", "The Gatekeepers", ""Ginger and Rosa", "Hyde Park on Hudson"and "No" (7).


So, as you can see, we could reasonably expect to see anywhere from 6-12 films in Telluride that are on the list that the NYFF announced yesterday.  Here's the lineup:

The complete list of main slate films announced on Monday for the New York Film Festival appears below:

ABOUT TIME
Director: Richard Curtis

ABUSE OF WEAKNESS (Abus de Faiblesse)
Director: Catherine Breillat

ALAN PARTRIDGE
Director: Declan Lowney

ALL IS LOST
Director: J. C. Chandor

AMERICAN PROMISE
Directors: Joe Brewster and Michèle Stephenson

AT BERKELEY
Director: Frederick Wiseman

BASTARDS (Les Salauds)
Director: Claire Denis

BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR (La Vie d’Adèle)
Director: Abdellatif Kechiche

BURNING BUSH (Hořicí Keř)
Director: Agnieszka Holland

CHILD OF GOD
Director: James Franco

GLORIA
Director: Sebastián Lelio

THE IMMIGRANT
Director: James Gray

INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
Directors: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen

THE INVISIBLE WOMAN
Director: Ralph Fiennes

JEALOUSY (La Jalousie)
Director: Philippe Garrel

JIMMY P: PSYCHOTHERAPY OF A PLAINS INDIAN
Director: Arnaud Desplechin

THE LAST OF THE UNJUST (Le Dernier des Injustes)
Director: Claude Lanzmann

LIKE FATHER, LIKE SON (Soshite Chichi ni Naru)
Director: Hirokazu Kore-eda

THE MISSING PICTURE (L’Image Manquante)
Director: Rithy Panh

MY NAME IS HMMM… (Je m’appelle Hmmm…)
Director: agnès B

NEBRASKA
Director: Alexander Payne

NOBODY’S DAUGHTER HAEWON (Nugu-ui ttal-do anin Haewon)
Director: Hong Sang-soo

NORTH, THE END OF HISTORY (Norte, Hangganan ng Kasaysayan)
Director: Lav Diaz

OMAR
Director: Hany Abu-Assad

ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE
Director: Jim Jarmusch

THE SQUARE
Director: Jehane Noujaim

STRANGER BY THE LAKE (L’Inconnu du Lac)
Director: Alain Guiraudie

STRAY DOGS (Jiao You)
Director: Tsai Ming-liang

A TOUCH OF SIN (Tian Zhu Ding)
Director: Jia Zhangke

LE WEEK-END
Director: Roger Michell

WHEN EVENING FALLS ON BUCHAREST OR METABOLISM (Când se Lasa Seara Peste Bucuresti sau Metabolism)
Director: Corneliu Porumboiu

THE WIND RISES (Kaze Tachinu)
Director: Hayao Miyazaki

From that list there are films that we're already pretty confident about appearing at TFF #40:

"All is Lost", "Blue is the Warmest Color", "The Immigrant", "Inside Llewyn Davis", "The Invisible Woman", "Nebraska".  So six in total that I'm pretty confident about.  If there were to be more than six, and I think there will be; what are the other most likely cross-overs between TFF and NYFF?

My best guesses would include:

"At Berkeley", "Burning Bush", "Gloria", "Like Father, Like Son", "Only Lovers Left Alive", "Stranger by the Lake", "Le Weekend" and "The Wind Rises".

If I was forced to, my guess is that this year would end up with about 10 crossovers, the six I'm pretty sure about plus 4 more from the secondary list.

Here are a series of links to massive coverage of the announcement from the New York Fest from

The Film Society of Lincoln Center (the NYFF people): http://www.filmlinc.com/daily/entry/nyff-new-york-film-festival-main-slate-announced

The New York Times: http://artsbeat.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/19/new-york-film-festival-announces-its-main-slate/

Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/official-new-york-film-festival-lineup/

HitFix/InContention: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/2013-new-york-film-festival-line-up-unveiled-inside-llewyn-davis-the-wind-rises-and-more

The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/new-york-film-festival-announces-
608936

Thompson on Hollywood: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/nyff-inside-llewyn-davis-coen-brothers

The Playlist: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-york-film-festival-inside-llewyn-davis-nebraska-the-immigrant-more-round-out-2013-slate-20130819

The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/coen-brothers-alexander-payne-james-gray-coming-new-york-film-fest-111636

Rope of Silicon: http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/complete-2013-new-york-film-festival-line-up/


INSIDE LLEWYN MUSIC

The Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis" is currently sitting at # 4 on my "Ten Bets" list.  I'm pretty sure we're going to have the opportunity to catch it at Telluride and I'm very, very excited.  Nevertheless, New York City gets a special "Llewyn" program on Sept. 29th.  That evening Town Hall in NYC will host "Another Day, Another Time" a concert centered on the folk music that is at the heart of "Llewyn Davis".  Artists such as Joan Baez, Jack White and Gillian Welch are on board as well as "Llewyn" cast members Carey Mulligan, Oscar Issac and John Goodman.

Reportedly cast member Justin Timberlake will  not be making an appearance.  Timberlake is scheduled to perform that evening in London.

The concert will  be one of  a series associated with the film and is being done to raise funds for the National Recording Preservation Foundation.

Who's wrangling this?  None other than T. Bone Burnett who handled the music for The Coens' "O Brother Where Art Thou?"

Check the coverage of yesterday's announcement here:

HitFix: http://www.hitfix.com/news/jack-white-marcus-mumford-avett-bros-set-to-play-inside-llewyn-davis-concert

Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/another-day-another-time-celebrating-the-music-of-inside-llewyn-davis-sept-29-nyc/

The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/inside-llewyn-davis-team-announce-608986

The Wrap: http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/jack-white-perform-inside-llewyn-davis-concert-no-justin-timberlake-111711


PALO ALTO PICS

I wrote yesterday that James Franco as apparently let slip that Gia Coppola's "Palo Alto" has made the Telluride lineup via Twitter and Instagram yesterday.  Now, today, comes a serious look at stills from that film via The Playlist.  Take a look at the post which also includes stills from Franco's own directorial effort "Child of God":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-images-from-james-francos-child-of-god-adaptation-of-his-book-palo-alto-starring-emma-roberts-20130816

"Palo Alto" is described as a dark drama focused on the lives of a group of teens.

AND A LOOK AT THE FIFTH ESTATE

The Playlist and Rope of Silicon also put up stills from Bill Condon's "The Fifth Estate" the story of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange starring Benedict Cumberbatch, Daniel Bruhl and Laura Linney.  I still am holding my breath that this film is annonced as part of the TFF #40 lineup on Aug. 28th...or shows up as a "sneak" over the weekend.

The Playlist story is here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-images-from-james-francos-child-of-god-adaptation-of-his-book-palo-alto-starring-emma-roberts-20130816

Rope of Silicon:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/first-poster-for-wikileaks-thriller-the-fifth-estate-starring-benedict-cumberbatch-and-daniel-bruhl/

REMINDERS!

Don't forget your invitation to this year's "Guide to the Ride" featuring yours truly.  We're set up for 5:00 pm Thursday, Aug. 29th at The River Club, 550 Depot in Telluride.  I promise we'll be done to get to the Thursday night feed downtown or make a 6:00 o'clock film.

Also...don't forget to send me your film ratings.  0-5 with 0 being awful.  Email them, Tweet or DM me, Facebook... or just comment here on the blog.  You can do it as the fest goes along or all at once after it's all over.  It'll take me about a week to get that all collated.

Remember that I'm doing the same thing with a select group of industry watchers, Oscar experts and critics including:

Alex Billington/FirstShowing

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott Foundas/Variety

Eric Kohn/IndieWire

Eugene Novikov/Film Blather

Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

I'm still working for and hoping to add another two or three folks to this lineup.  You'll want to check their reactions from  the festival.

A third reminder: I'll be writing daily summaries this year fro Screencraft.org.  The plan is a quick overview of key films on Wednesday, Aug. 28th when the lineup is announced and then a summary of film news, scuttlebutt, reaction and buzz each evening of the fest.  Look for that at www.screencraft.org.

And finally...

I posted my "Wish List" of films on Friday.  What's on your Telluride "Wish List"?  Drop me a line or two in any way that's convenient for you.  Let me hear what you'd like to see.


Follow/Like Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

More on Wednesday...

Invitation/Iceman Will Thaw in T-ride/More from Toronto/Future Telluride

Good Wednesday to Everyone!


INVITATION

Another reminder to join me at The River Club on Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00PM for the Second Annual "Guide to the Ride; Flow of the SHOW". Last year was a lot of fun and we're going to try our level best to have a great time again this year. So, come, enjoy. We may have a special guest or two...we're trying anyway.


THE ICEMAN WILL THAW IN T-RIDE

It's one of those quirky rabbit hole trails that I went down on the internet yesterday and lo and behold, it looks to have paid off.  I can say with some level of confidence that Ariel Vromen's "The Iceman" will be playing at Telluride in 2 1/2 weeks.  "The Iceman" is a true crime/mob story featuring Michael Shannon, James Franco, Chris Evans, Winona Ryder and Ray Liotta.  Vromen directed and co-wrote with Morgan Land.

"The Iceman" was given up as a Telluride film in a post on...of all places...MafiaToday.com...I'm not kidding.  You can find the entirety of that post here:
http://mafiatoday.com/tag/richard-the-iceman-kuklinski/

That post correctly reports that "The Iceman" is programmed at Toronto and Venice which lends a good deal of credence to the Telluride claim.  Could it be that Mafia Today has broken Telluride's own "Omerta/Code of Silence"?  Looks like it.

"Iceman's" IMDb entry is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1491044/


MORE FROM TORONTO

The Toronto International Film Festival looks to have completed their lineup with another huge announcement of films yesterday including the word that their fest will close with "Song for Marion" which has been very high on my Telluride possibles list all summer long.  It's inclusion as the TIFF closer doesn't absolutely nuke it from Telluride consideration...but it also doesn't help.  I've had "Song" as a "Ten Bets" film for a good portion of the run up to T-ride but have let it slide off the list of late...maybe for good reason now.

HitFix has the complete lowdown on all the films added yesterday here:
http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/new-films-from-nick-cassavetes-ed-burns-and-peter-webber-join-toronto-film-festival-2012-lineup

Among the films added that are Telluride possibles (at least according to me):

"Song for Marion"  (still going to say that there is a chance)
"Love is All You Need"
"On the Road"
"Passion"
"Therese Desqueyroux"
"Yellow"
"In the Fog"


FUTURE TELLURIDE

Two developments yesterday that have a better than fair chance of impacting Telluride Film Fests in the future.  Director/writer Jason Reitman tweeted that he had wrapped his latest "Labor Day" starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin and accompanied that tweet with this pic:

And we found out from multiple sources that it appears that Robert Pattinson will work with Telluride regular Werner Herzog in "Queen of the Desert".  This from IMDb news:
http://www.imdb.com/news/ni34121933



More later...

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Cruise and The Master/Oz/World Cinema/Coming Attractions

Good Friday to Everyone!

CRUISE AND THE MASTER

The word has been around for some time now that Paul Thomas Anderson had shown Tom Cruise (reportedly they have remained friends after Cruise' performance in Anderson's "Magnolia in 1999).  Consequently, there have been a number of reports that Cruise, and by extension, Scientology,  wasn't pleased.

The NY Daily News explains:
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/tom-cruise-scientology-members-dislike-portrayal-a-cult-leader-new-film-master-article-1.1109376

Does this alter chances that "The Master" might be a Telluride film...well...who knows.  Cruise has been a supporter of TFF in the past, though I can't find him listed in a TFF program since 2008.  Interesting to ponder...


OZ

OK...this won't be at Telluride, but it does feature Telluride guest James Franco (127 Hours) and it looks kind of cool.  Above is the trailer for "Oz, the Great and Powerful" scheduled for release in Spring 2013.  Also, here's an accompanying story from Get The Big Picture:


http://www.getthebigpicture.net/blog/2012/6/21/first-look-at-james-franco-in-oz-the-great-and-powerful.html


WORLD CINEMA

I don't know if you've seen this or not, but it's kind of entertaining and I swear I have seen this scene play out (after a fashion) at the Telluride Film Festival...won't give anymore away...(thanks to Kris Tapley and Dave Poland)

COMING ATTRACTIONS

I'm tossing in a couple of updates on previous "coming attraction" films.  Darren Aronofsky tweeted a photo earlier this week for his "Noah" project:
The Playlist has the pic and a lengthy story:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/darren-aronofskys-building-an-ark-noah-to-feature-crazy-demon-angels-20120712

And Jeffrey Well at Hollywood Elsewhere tweeted and posted about Terrence Malick shooting on location in L.A. for "Knight of Cups".  The post also includes a brief summary of what the film is supposed to be about:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/07/sasquatch_on_lu.php

More later...

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The OC/How the Oscar Race Evolved

The Telluride Film Festival along with Toronto and Venice have become the unofficial start to the Oscar season each year. Consequently, the first serious attempts at Oscar prediction occur as those festivals come to an end in September.

In today's post we take a look back at what we thought would happen and contrast that with how it all came out when the nominations were announced last week. The Clearinghouse first was up on Sept. 26. And on that day, this is what we thought:

Best Picture: Already the field was pretty well established. 9 of the 10 of the eventual Best Pic nominees were on the list. Mike Leigh's "Another Year" was the film in the 7th position that eventually gave way to "Winter's Bone." "Bone"was lurking" as the 14th film on the list.

Best Director: Again, Mike Leigh and "Another Year" was on this list ( at #2) riding a wave of positive critical response that had begun with its presentation at Cannes. And Danny Boyle's "127 Hours" was at #3. But Leigh and Boyle were supplanted by The Coen Brothers for "True Grit" (who are also popularly believed to have supplanted "Inception's" Christopher Nolan at the last minute) and by Darren Aronofsky foe "Black Swan." Both The Coens and Aronofsky were lurking in the next five at #9 and #8 respectively.

Best Actress: 3 actual nominees were on the first attempt-Bening and Portman were 1-2 and Kidman was at #4. Also on that first list-Lesley Manville and Sally Hawkins. Manville and Hawkins were replaced by the actual nominations of Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. On that first pass at prediction Lawrence was at #6 and Williams was at #8.

Best Actor: 4 of the 5 eventual nominees were on the first stab at prognostication. Firth, Franco, Eisenberg, and Bridges. Robert Duvall and Mark Wahlburg (who was tied with Bridges for the #5 spot) ended up on the outside looking in. They were replaced by Javier Bardem for "Biutiful." Bardem is believed to have bumped Duvall out at the very end of the nominating process. Bardem began on 9/26 at the # 8 spot.

Best Supporting Actress: The original guess had 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Leo, Bonham Carter and Weaver. Also on that original list were Miranda Richardson for "Made in Dagenham" and Dianne Weist for Rabbit Hole. The other two actually nominated, of course, were Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams. Steinfeld was first set at the #6 spot while Adams began at #9.

Best Supporting Actor: Again a 3 of 5 category as the original prediction included actual nominees Bale, Rush and Ruffalo. Also included were Andrew Garfield and Justin Timberlake from "The Social Network." Actual nominees John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone') and Jeremy Renner ("The Town") were nowhere on the original list of ten possible nominees in what was the worst category for early prediction.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 for 5. The first guess got "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3, " and "Winter's Bone." "Rabbit Hole" and "Love and Other Drugs" which were on that first list failed to secure nominations. "127 Hours" (at #6 originally) and "True Grit" (at #9 originally) did.

Best Original Screenplay: 5 for 5. The first prediction had them all right..."Kids," King's," "Inception," "Another Year," and "The Fighter" were all listed as nominees on the very first chart.

For the Big 8 Categories the original Clearinghouse was 33 of 45 and of the 12 that were missing 10 were considered "possible." The only total whiffs were John Hawkes and Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Finally...the Oscar Finals Ballots went in the mail on Wednesday. The consensus at this moment would be the following:

Picture: "The King's Speech"

Director: Tom Hooper/King's (although there is still a chunk of support for the notion that Fincher could still win the thing)

Actress: Natalie Portman/Swan(still some feel for Annette Bening)

Actor: Colin Firth/TKS...not much doubt

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/Fighter is in the lead but Hailee Steinfeld is still regarded as having a chance.
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/Fighter...again, not much doubt

Adapted Screenplay: Sorkin/"The Social Network" a prohibitive favorite.

Original Screenplay: David Seidler/"The King's Speech" also a prohibitive favorite.

Oscar 83 and Telluride Film #37/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Telluride #37 with 32 Oscar nominations. The Clearinghouse gets 85 out 105 in 21 categories.

TFF #37 films with Oscar Noms:

THE KING'S SPEECH-12

127 HOURS-6

BLACK SWAN-5

BIUTIFUL-2

ANOTHER YEAR-1

THE WAY BACK-1

INSIDE JOB-1

INCENDIES-1

THE ILLUSIONIST-1

POSTER GIRL-1

GOD OF LOVE-1

THE KING'S SPEECH over-performed getting 12 nominations instead of the anticipated 9. True Grit hit its expected 10. BLACK SWAN (5 instead of the expected 7), 127 HOURS (6 instead of 7)and Inception (8 instead of 10) underperformed.

By category, here's how The Clearinghouse did.

Picture: Swan, Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS, 127, TSN, TS3, True and Winter's. Clearinghouse goes 10 for 10. One of 4 categories that we hit 100% .

Director: 4 of 5. Aronofsky, Russell, Hooper, Fincher and The Coens. Coens a small surprise. Nolan's exclusion a BIG SURPRISE. Though we had The Coens as the first likely suspects if one of the predicted five didn't make the cut. I just never thought it would be Nolan that got the short end.

Actress: 5 of 5. Bening, Kidman, Lawrence, Portman, Williams. No Manville, though...sad face.

Actor: 4 of 5. Bardem, Bridges, Eisenberg, Firth, and Franco. Bardem in and Duvall out...again, we had Bardem as a possible spoiler.

Supporting Actress: 4 0f 5. Adams, Bonham Carter, Leo, Steinfeld, Weaver. In the last spot-Weaver. We had it as a dead heat with Mila Kunis.

Supporting Actor: 4 of 5. Bale, Hawkes, Renner, Ruffalo, and Rush. Hawkes in for Garfield. Yes!

Adapted Screenplay: 5 of 5. 127, TSN, TS3, True, Winter's

Original Screenplay: 5 of 5. Another Year (yea!), Fighter, Inception, Kids, TKS. A notoriously difficult pair of categories and The Clearinghouse got all 10 writing nominees. A little smug.

Animated: 3 of 3. Dragon, TS3 and THE ILLUSIONIST. Again...smug.

Foreign: 4 of 5. Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies, Outside the Law. Law in and S. Africa's "Life, Above All" out.

Doc: 2 of 5. One of our two worst categories. Exit thru the Gift Shop, Gasland, INSIDE JOB, Resterpo, Waste Land. The Big stunner is the absence of "Waiting for Superman."

Art Direction: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Inception, TKS, True. Harry for "Shutter Island"..though not really a surprise.

Cinematography: 4 of 5. Swan, Inception, TKS, TSN, True. TKS for 127 Hours...yes, that's a surprise.

Costume: 4 of 5. Alice, I am Love, TKS, Tempest, True. I am Love in for Black Swan...yes, also a surprise. One of the biggest of the day.

Film Editing: 4 of 5. Swan, Fighter, TKS, 127, TSN. King's Speech in, Inception out. A stunner and one of four or five "signs" that The King's Speech is actually the favorite to win Best Picture now. More on the "signs" below.

Makeup: 1 of 3. Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman. Barney and way Back in Alice and True Grit out. The OC was not good here, but also not awful. We had Barney and The Way Back listed as possible spoilers.

Original Score: 4 of 5. Dragon, Inception, TKS, 127, TSN. 127 Hours in and Never Let Me Go out. We did have 127 Hours listed as a possible.

Original Song: 3 of 4. Country Strong, Tangled, 127, TS3. Weirdly only 4 nominees. Country Strong in and Burlesque and Superman out.

Sound Edit: 4 of 5. Inception, TS3, Tron, True, Unstoppable. Unstop in for 127. We had Unstop as a possible.

Sound Mix: 3 of 5. Inception, TKS, Salt, TSN, True. Salt and King's in for Swan and Tron. Salt is a stunner and another "sign" that TKS may be the frontrunner.

Visual FX: 4 of 5. Alice, Harry, Hereafter, Inception, Iron Man 2. Hereafter stuns Tron.

Signs that THE KING'S SPEECH might be your frontrunner...Most nominations, Nominated for Film Editing (almost always a necessity for a film to win Best Picture is an accompanying nomination in Editing), Cinematography and SOUND MIXING??? Really????

Conventional (quick) wisdom is that The King's Speech wins Best Picture and several others and The Social Network's Fincher wins director.

Coming soon to the OC...we handicap the field of nominees for your Oscar winners.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 Re-Post. Telluride Film and the 83rd Academy Awards

Because of some issues I have decided to re-post the Clearinghouse from this morning.

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.
If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.
If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.
If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.
If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.
If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.
If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.
If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."
Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):
10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)
9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)
8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)
7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)
4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:
10) The Fighter
9) THE ILLUSIONIST
8) THE WAY BACK
7) Shutter Island
6) 127 HOURS
5) ANOTHER YEAR
4) BLACK SWAN
3) Inception
2) THE KING'S SPEECH
1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

The Oscar Clearinghouse #7 (Telluride Film)- FINAL Pre-Nomination Edition

It's been four and a half months since the Telluride Film Festival concluded and after the long awards season march the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. Here is the latest compilation of Oscar prognosticator's wisdom with our focus on the films that played as a part of the Telluride Film Festival in 2010. Categories have been limited to the appropriate number of nominees and three possible spoilers. TFF #37 films listed in CAPS AND BOLD.

Information collated from: Rope of Silicon, Incontention.com, Scott Feinberg, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Film Misery, The Gurus of Gold from Movie City News, The Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

Best Picture: 8 films seem like locks: THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, The Social Network, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception and True Grit. 127 HOURS has actually solidified its chances in the last couple of weeks making it a probable nominee. It looks like that the last spot is between The Town and Winter's Bone with Bone having the inside track. The only other films with a prayer of cracking the Ten Nominees are Blue Valentine and ANOTHER YEAR, but it's the slimmest of chances.

If I had a ballot: See my top ten below. Suffice it to say (as I have been) that "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," and "The Kids Are All Right" are over-rated.

Best Director: David Fincher/The Social Network and David O. Russell/The Fighter appear to be locks with TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN and Christopher Nolan/Inception looking very much like the other three nominees. If there is a surprise it would be (In order of likelihood) The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS or MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR.

If I had a ballot: Coens in and Russell OR Fincher out.

Best Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN and Annette Bening/The Kids Are All Right have been locks for months. Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone appears to have moved into that status as of the last two weeks. The other two spots look to go Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole and Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine. Three women who could intrude (in order of their chances) are: LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR, Julianne Moore/The Kids Are All Right or a late charging Hilary Swank/Conviction.

If I had a ballot: Don't know that I'd do much different here...maybe move Manville to supporting, but that category is already filled with great work.

Best Actor: Locks: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS. Very Likely the other three are: Robert Duvall/Get Low, Jeff Bridges/True Grit and Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network. Realistically, if a surprise occurs it would be Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL or Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter.

If I had a ballot: Eisenberg out for Leonardo DiCaprio in "Shutter Island."

Supporting Actress: (Still the most intriguing category) Two locks are Melissa Leo/The Fighter and HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH. Near locks are Amy Adams/The Fighter and Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit (Steinfeld would be a lock, but she's getting shaded into the Best Actress category by a couple of Oscar predictors...Hmmmm). And the last spot is an arm wrestling match between Jacki Weaver/Animal Kingdom and MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN (my bet is on Kunis). Only two other women might have a shot at a nomination: Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham and Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole.

If I had a ballot: I'm OK here if Kunis gets in.

Supporting Actor: Three men seem to have nominations assured. They are Christian Bale/The Fighter, GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH and Mark Ruffalo/The Kids Are All Right. The last two spots look to be comfortably in the hands of Andrew Garfield/The Social Network and Jeremy Renner/The Town. Those that might sneak in are: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction or Matt Damon/True Grit.

If I had a ballot: Hawkes in for Renner, Ruffalo or Garfield. And I would add that I'd be voting for both Ed Harris and Colin Farrell from THE WAY BACK.

Adapted Screenplay: Locks: Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini/Winter's Bone. The other two nominees would appear to be Joel & Ethan Coen/True Grit and DANNY BOYLE & SIMON BEAUFOY/127 HOURS. The three most likely spoilers are: Ben Affleck, Peter Craig & Aaron Stockard/The Town. David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole and Roman Polanski & Robert Harris/The Ghost Writer.

If I had a ballot: Let this category stand.

Original Screenplay: Locks are: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, Christopher Nolan/Inception and Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg/The Kids Are All Right. Also likely nominees are: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson/The Fighter and MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR. Three which could surprise are: Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curits & Cami Delavigne/Blue Valentine, MARK HEYMAN, ANDRES HEINZ & JOHN J. MC LAUGHLIN/BLACK SWAN, or Chris Provenzano & C. Gaby Mitchell/Get Low. Personally, I think Black Swan gets in instead of The Fighter and if I had a ballot I would certainly vote it in over "The Kids Are All Right."

Animated Film: Locks: Toy Story 3 and How to Train Your Dragon. Probable: THE ILLUSIONIST. Possible spoilers: Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind. (Parenthetical comment: What a switch in the last 2 weeks as "The Illusionist" has surged ahead of "Tangled" to look like the third nominee. 14 days ago, "Tangled" looked like a cinch.)

Foreign Film: Locks: Nada. Probable: INCENDIES/CANADA, BIUTIFUL/MEXICO, In a Better World/Denmark, Life, Above All/South Africa and Dogtooth/Greece. Possible spoilers...any of the other 4 films still alive after the Academy cut the foreign list down to 9. (from Japan, Sweden, Spain and Algeria). The stunner was the exclusion of France's "OF GODS AND MEN."

Documentary: Only Lock: INSIDE JOB. Other probable nominees: Waiting for Superman, The Tillman Story, Resterpo and Client 9. Possible spoilers: The Waste Land, Exit Through the Gift Shop and The Lottery.

Film Editing: Locks: Inception, The Social Network, The Fighter. Likely: BLACK SWAN and 127 HOURS. Could Slide in: THE KING'S SPEECH, Shutter Island, True Grit.

Cinematography: Locks: Inception and True Grit. Likely: BLACK SWAN, The Social Network and 127 HOURS. Spoilers: Shutter Island, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE KING'S SPEECH.

Art Direction: Locks: Alice in Wonderland, Inception and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: Shutter Island and True Grit. Possible spoilers: Tron:Legacy and Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows or THE WAY BACK.

Original Score: Locks: Inception is the only lock in this category. Probable nominees are: The Social Network, How to Train Your Dragon, THE KING'S SPEECH and NEVER LET ME GO. Possible spoilers: 127 HOURS, The Ghost Writer and True Grit.

Original Song: Locks: "I See the Light"/Tangled, "Shine"/Waiting for Superman, "We Belong Together"/Toy Story 3, and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"/Burlesque. The other likely nominee is "IF I RISE"/127 HOURS. Possible spoilers: "Coming Home"/Country Strong, "Despicable Me"/Despicable Me or "CHASON ILLUSIONIST"/THE ILLUSIONIST.

Costuming: Locks: Alice in Wonderland and THE KING'S SPEECH. Probable nominees: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Tempest. Spoilers: Burlesque, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, Made in Dagenham.

Sound Editing: Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: 127 HOURS, Tron:Legacy, True Grit and Toy Story 3. Potential spoilers: How to Train Your Dragon, Iron Man 2 or Unstoppable.

Sound Mixing: Again, Inception is the only lock. Probable nominees are: BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Social Network and Tron:Legacy. Potential surprises: Unstoppable, Iron Man 2 or Toy Story 3.

Makeup (3 noms only): Locks: Alice in Wonderland and The Wolfman. Other likely nominee: True Grit. Spoilers: THE WAY BACK, Jonah Hex, Barney's Version.

Visual Effects: Locks: Inception and Tron:Legacy. Likely nominees: Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter/Deathly Hallows, and Iron Man 2. Potential spoilers: Scott Pilgrim or Hereafter.

And, of course, there will be nominations for short form live action, animation and documentary.

The Breakdown: If the Clearinghouse nails it Telluride #37 films earn 30 nominations with 11 more potentially in the mix as spoilers.

The most nominated film(s) will be (according to The Clearinghouse): True Grit and Inception with 10 each (Grit is in play in four other categories and so could end up being the most nominated on its own). The rest of the multiple nominees look like this (with additional possible nominations in parenthesis):

10 nominations: True Grit (4), Inception (0)

9 nominations: THE KING'S SPEECH (2), The Social Network (0)

8 nominations: BLACK SWAN (2)

7 nominations: 127 HOURS (2), The Fighter (1)

4 nominations: The Kids Are All Right (1), Toy Story 3 (1), Alice in Wonderland (0)

Other TFF #37 films earning nominations: ANOTHER YEAR-1, BIUTIFUL-1, INCENDIES-1, NEVER LET ME GO-1, THE ILLUSIONIST-1, INSIDE JOB-1.

And finally, my top ten films for 2010...if I was voting, this would be my Best Picture ballot:

10) The Fighter

9) THE ILLUSIONIST

8) THE WAY BACK

7) Shutter Island

6) 127 HOURS

5) ANOTHER YEAR

4) BLACK SWAN

3) Inception

2) THE KING'S SPEECH

1) True Grit

Back tomorrow with the breakdown and analysis of what the nominations have been....

Nominations are Coming! Telluride Film and The Oscar Clearinghouse

Will Geoffrey Rush (seen here outside the Chuck Jones Theater at 2010's Telluride Film Festival) wake up Tuesday morning to an Oscar nomination? The signs say...Yes!

Coming Monday on Michael's Telluride Film Blog...final Oscar nomination predictions from The Oscar Clearinghouse. Will TFF#37 films earn 30 or more noms? We find out Tuesday morning. The announcement is scheduled to take place at 8:30 am Eastern, 7:30 am Central...5:30 am on the west coast.

Brits, Telluride Film #37 and The OC

The British version of the Academy (BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM AND TELEVISION ARTS or BAFTA) nominations were announced early this morning. TFF #37 was strongly represented. Here are their nominations with Telluride films in Bold and Large

(Thanks to Incontention.com)

Best Film: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “The Social Network” “True Grit”

Best British Film: “Another Year” “Four Lions” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “127 Hours”

Best Director: Darren Aronofsky, “Black Swan” Christopher Nolan, “Inception” Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech” Danny Boyle, “127 Hours” David Fincher, “The Social Network”

Best Actor: Javier Bardem, “Biutiful” Jeff Bridges, “True Grit” Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network” Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech” James Franco, “127 Hours”

Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right” Julianne Moore, “The Kids Are All Right” Natalie Portman, “Black Swan” Noomi Rapace, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Best Supporting Actor: Andrew Garfield, “The Social Network” Christian Bale, “The Fighter” Pete Postlethwaite, “The Town” Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech” Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter” Barbara Hershey, “Black Swan” Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech” Lesley Manville, “Another Year” Miranda Richardson, “Made In Dagenham”

Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “127 Hours” “The Social Network” “Toy Story 3″ “True Grit”

Best Original Screenplay: “Black Swan” “The Fighter” “Inception” “The Kids Are All Right” “The King’s Speech”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful” “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” “I Am Love” “Of Gods and Men” “The Secret In Their Eyes”

Best Animated Film: “Despicable Me” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Toy Story 3″

Best Cinematography: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Production Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “True Grit”

Best Costume Design: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham” “True Grit”

Best Editing: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “The Social Network”

Best Make Up & Hair: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “The King’s Speech” “Made In Dagenham”

Best Original Music: “Alice In Wonderland” “How To Train Your Dragon” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours”

Best Sound: “Black Swan” “Inception” “The King’s Speech” “127 Hours” “True Grit”

Best Special Visual Effects: “Alice In Wonderland” “Black Swan” “Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part 1″ “Inception” “Toy Story 3″

Rising Star Award: Gemma Arterton Andrew Garfield Tom Hardy Aaron Johnson Emma Stone

Carl Foreman Award: (best debut by a British writer, director or producer)Clio Barnard, “The Arbor” Banksy and Jaime D’Cruz, “Exit Through the Gift Shop” Chris Morris, “Four Lions” Gareth Edwards, “Monsters” Nick Whitfield, “Skeletons”

The Breakdown:

THE KING'S SPEECH-14

BLACK SWAN-12

Inception-9

127 HOURS and True Grit-8

The Social Network-6

Kids Are All Right and Made in Dagenham-4

The Fighter and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo-3

ANOTHER YEAR and BIUTIFUL-2

OF GODS AND MEN-1

Telluride rakes 39 BAFTA nominations.

Comment: Maybe I am an anglophile, because this seems a lot more accurate to me than the conventional wisdom here in the States concerning the likely dominance of The Social Network.

A couple of interesting notes...Lesley Manville (Another Year) is nominated in Supporting Actress...which is where she should be instead of lead, which is where Oscar prognosticators have been putting her. Similarly, Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) is nominated as a Lead rather than Supporting which is also opposite of where she's being listed here in the US of A.

Barbara Hershey gets a BAFTA Supporting nomination for "Black Swan" instead of Mila Kunis who has had the majority of Oscar buzz in this country.

"Tamara Drewe's" Gemma Arterton and "Never Let Me Go's" Andrew Garfield are nominated as "Rising Stars."

The BAFTA Awards will be revealed Feb. 13.

Telluride Film Festival #37/The OC and the BFCA

Best Acting hopeful Colin Firth at this year's Telluride Film Festival

The Broadcast Film Critics/Critics Choice Movie Awards last night continued to anoint "The Social Network" as the consensus film of the year. The results (from Incontention.com and Indie Wire.com) with TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD:

Picture: The Social Network

Director: David Fincher/The Social Network

Actress: NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN

Actor: COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH

Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo/The Fighter

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale/The Fighter

Young Actor/Actress: Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit

Ensemble: The Fighter

Original Screenplay: DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH

Adapted Screenplay:Aaron Sorkin/ The Social Network

Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

Best Action Movie: Inception

Best Comedy: Easy A

Foreign: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary: Waiting for Superman

Art Direction: Inception

Cinematography: Inception

Film Editing: Inception

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland

Makeup: Alice in Wonderland

Visual Effects: Inception

Sound: Inception

Best Song: IF I RISE/127 HOURS

Best Score: The Social Network

Multiple Winners: Inception-6, The Social Network-4, The Fighter-3, THE KING'S SPEECH-2, Alice in Wonderland-2

TFF #37-4 total awards. Now on to the Golden Globes tomorrow night.

The Oscar Clearinghouse #6- A Fortnight 'til Nominations

Two weeks until the Oscar nominations are announced and here is the state of the race via The Oscar Clearinghouse with data compiled from: Scott Feinberg, The Gold Derby, Awards Daily, Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly, Film Misery, InContention.com, Gurus of Gold from the LA Times, Awards Circuit and Film Experience.

TFF #37 films in CAPS AND BOLD

Best Picture: 1) The Social Network, 2) THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) The Fighter, 4) Inception, 5) BLACK SWAN, 6) True Grit, 7) Toy Story 3, 8) The Kids Are All Right, 9) 127 HOURS, 10) The Town

Others: Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR, Shutter Island, THE WAY BACK, The Ghost Writer

Hot: True Grit, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer

Not: Toy Story 3, Rabbit Hole

Thought: TSN actually opens up its lead by a minute fraction on TKS. Meanwhile, 127 Hours, The Town and Winter's Bone are in a dead heat for the last 2 nominations.

Direction: 1) David Fincher/The Social Network, 2) TOM HOOPER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) DARREN ARONOFSKY/BLACK SWAN, 4) Christopher Nolan/Inception 5) David O. Russell/The Fighter

Others: The Coen Brothers/True Grit, DANNY BOYLE/127 HOURS, Debra Granik/Winter's Bone, MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, Linda Cholodenko/Kids Are All Right

Hot: Zip

Not: Boyle

Thought: Fincher has a perfect score. Coens for Russell would be my guess for how the actual nominations shake out at this point.

Actress: 1) NATALIE PORTMAN/BLACK SWAN, 2) Annette Bening/Kids Are All Right, 3) Jennifer Lawrence/Winter's Bone, 4) Nicole Kidman/Rabbit Hole, 5) LESLEY MANVILLE/ANOTHER YEAR

Others: Michelle Williams/Blue Valentine, Hilary Swank/Conviction, Julianne Moore/Kids, Halle Berry/Frankie & Alice, Tilda Swinton/I Am Love, Naoomi Rapace/Girl Who Played with Fire

Hot: Rapace

Not: Zip

Thought: Portman is one point off of a perfect score and has edged Bening to be the frontrunner for now. Inside the numbers, I think there's still a good possibility that Williams edges Manville for the 5th spot. Also, an interesting note, this was the first time this season that I saw one of the prognosticators put True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld in this race rather than Supporting Actress...hmmm.

Actor: 1) COLIN FIRTH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) JAMES FRANCO/127 HOURS, 3) Jesse Eisenberg/The Social Network, 4) Jeff Bridges/True Grit, 5) Robert Duvall/Get Low

Others: Ryan Gosling/Blue Valentine, Mark Wahlberg/The Fighter, JAVIER BARDEM/BIUTIFUL, Leonardo DiCaprio/Shutter Island

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: An incredibly stable category. Firth racks up a perfect score. He plus Franco and Eisenberg appear locks for nominations..then it's a free for all between Bridges, Duvall, Gosling and Wahlberg for the last two spots.

Supporting Actress: 1) Melissa Leo/The Fighter, 2) Hailee Steinfeld/True Grit, 3) Amy Adams/The Fighter, 4) HELENA BONHAM CARTER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 5) Jacki Weaver/Animal Knigdom

Others: MILA KUNIS/BLACK SWAN, Dianne Weist/Rabbit Hole, Sissy Spacek/Get Low, Miranda Richardson/Made in Dagenham, BARBARA HERSHEY/BLACK SWAN

Hot: Steinfeld

Not: Zip

Thought: 6 women for 5 spots...Inside the numbers, Kunis has been gaining ground. Weist has probably stopped being a realistic possibility.

Supporting Actor: 1) Christian Bale/The Fighter, 2) GEOFFREY RUSH/THE KING'S SPEECH, 3) Mark Ruffalo/Kids Are All Right, 4) Jeremy Renner/The Town, 5) Andrew Garfield/The Social Network

Others: John Hawkes/Winter's Bone, Sam Rockwell/Conviction, Matt Damon/True Grit, Michael Douglas/Wall Street, ED HARRIS/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Damon

Not: Harris, Bill Murray

Thought: Bale has a perfect score. Hawkes and Rockwell are still a part of the conversation, but Damon, Douglas and Harris don't really stand a chance of a nomination.

Original Screenplay: 1) DAVID SEIDLER/THE KING'S SPEECH, 2) Cholodenko & Blumberg/Kids Are All right, 3) Christopher Nolan/Inception, 4) MIKE LEIGH/ANOTHER YEAR, 5) Silver & Tamasy/The Fighter

Others: HEINZ/HEYMAN/BLACK SWAN, Cianfrance, Curtis & DeLavigne/Blue Valentine, Provenzano & Mitchell/Get Low, Sofia Coppola/Somewhere, William Ivory/Made in Dagenham

Hot: Zip

Not: Zip

Thought: King's is one point off a perfect score. King's and Kids are locks, I think...then...pick 'em. 3 spots for 5 scripts.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Aaron Sorkin/The Social Network, 2) Michael Arndt/Toy Story 3, 3) Granik & Rosselini/Winter's Bone, 4) The Coens/True Grit, 5) BOYLE & BEAUFOY/127 HOURS

Others: Criag, Affleck & Stoddard/The Town, Roman Polanski/The Ghost Writer, David Lindsay-Abaire/Rabbit Hole, Cowell & Davies/How to Train Your Dragon, PETER WEIR/THE WAY BACK

Hot: Polanski/Ghost Writer

Not: Zip

Thought: TSN has a perfect score. After that, maybe even more of a crapshoot than Original Screenplay with the next 6 scripts with a real shot at the 4 remaining spots.

The Breakdown (for the Big 8 categories):

Predicted Nominations:

6 nominations- THE KING'S SPEECH and The Fighter

5 nominations- The Social Network

4 nominations- True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

3 nominations- Inception, BLACK SWAN, 127 HOURS

2 nominations- Toy Story 3, The Town, Winter's Bone, ANOTHER YEAR

Collective Nominations and Possible Nominations:

7 combined- The Fighter

6 combined- THE KING'S SPEECH, BLACK SWAN, True Grit, The Kids Are All Right

5 combined- The Social Network, Winter's Bone

4 combined- 127 HOURS, ANOTHER YEAR, Get Low

3 combined- Inception, The Town, THE WAY BACK, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole

As of this post TFF #37 accounts for 14 nominations and 10 other possibles in the Big 8 categories.

Check out The Clearinghouse post from Jan. 7th to see where the race stand in the technical and foreign categories.