FAC Oscar Predix: Supporting / New Trailer for Downsizing / Future Telluride: Mike Leigh's Peterloo / Interviews: Gerwig, Oldman, Jolie and Cooper

Monday, Monday...Nov. 6, 2017


FAC OSCAR PREDIX: SUPPORTING

Today's post begins with an update of the FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Predictions for nominations for the Supporting Acting categories.

Telluride films are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Last posted prediction for this category was Oct. 16th and it looked like this:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing

Today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR

From Oct. 16:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Today's update:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water



NEW TRAILER FOR DOWNSIZING

Paramount released a new trailer this week for Alexander Payne's Downsizing.  The film is slated to hot theaters on Dec. 22.  Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

I have also linked some coverage of the trailer's release from Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net.  That is linked here.

FUTURE TELLURIDE

Back in the Sept. 25th post I included a segment on possible future Telluride films called "Looking Ahead".  The list consisted of ten films (out of 56) that I have been tracking that still could, eventually, be in a TFF lineup.  One of the films that was not on that list of ten but is in the long list is Mike Leigh's Peterloo.

I mention this because Peterloo popped up this week with a "first look" still from the film:

It appears the thinking is that Leigh will have the film ready for Cannes.  Should that be true, I'd think it was a very solid choice to be at the top of the TFF #45 speculation list.  Leigh has had a significant history with Telluride.  Additionally, the film will be distributed by Amazon Studios which also does not hurt its T-ride chances.

Peterloo is based on the 1819 massacre of protesters in Manchester, England.  60,000 protesters were gathered seeking voting reform.  15 were killed.

Leigh's previous films at Telluride include: Mr. Turner, Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Here are a couple of stories about the photo and the film from Indiewire and from The Film Stage.

INTERVIEWS: GERWIG, OLDMAN, JOLIE AND COOPER

I have included here the link to a new Indiewire interview with Lady Bird director and writer Greta Gerwig.  The interview is with Anne Thompson.

 Also, The Deadline Contender series of interviews was rolled out this week and includes interviews with Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) , Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father) and Scott Cooper (Hostiles).

The Oldman (with Joe Wright as well) interview is here conducted by Pete Hammond.

Jolie and her subject, Luong Ung are interviewed here.

Cooper (along with actors Wes Studi and Q'orianka Kilcher) is interviewed here.

That's your MTFB for Monday, Nov. 6th.  There will be more on Thursday.


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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Supporting Players Oscar Chances / Awards Daily's Latest Oscar Take / Weinstein Out of AMPAS

Welcome back from the weekend and to this Monday in October...


SUPPORTING PLAYERS OSCAR CHANCES

Since I got this year's FAC underway in last Thursday's post (with looks at the Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor categories), I thought I'd continue today with a review of where the Supporting Acting races look to stand at this point in mid-October.

Telluride #44 performances are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Adding the first two FACs of the season together, here's where TFF #44 films stand in terms of the six categories that get the most attention:

Darkest Hour- Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and also a possible shot at Supporting Actress.

The Shape of Water-Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actress and Supporting Actress.  The other possibility is Supporting Actor.

Lady Bird-One nomination and two potentials.  Nom: Supporting Actress.  Other possibilities are Best Picture and Actress.

Downsizing has a possible nomination for Supporting Actress.

Battle of the Sexes is possible for Best Actress.



AWARDS DAILY'S LATEST OSCAR TAKE

Sasha Stone's Awards Daily website (www.awardsdaily.com) posted its latest collection of Oscar predictions in her weekly "Predictions Friday" post.

TFF #44 films according to Stone grab nominations as follows:

Darkest Hour (10) Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

The Shape of Water (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

Lady Bird (3): Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Battle of the Sexes (2): Picture, Actress

Wonderstruck (1): Adapted Screenplay

The complete Predictions Friday from Awards Daily is here.


WEINSTEIN OUT OF AMPAS

It seemed like I should probably mention something about Harvey Weinstein in light of all of the furor of the past few days and his expulsion Saturday from The Academy of Motion Picture Hearts and Sciences.

Just a couple of notes...

The Weinstein Company has certainly been a presence (and Miramax before TWC) in the years I have been attending TFF.  Since I started going to T-ride, I count 18 films from one or the other of the companies including Oscar Best Picture winners The King's Speech and The Artist.  Other notable films from TWC or Miramax at TFF the last 12 fests included: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I'm Not There, The Imitation Game and The Road.

There were other films from Weinstein at the fest before I started going such as Finding Neverland and Lost in Translation.

From my notes, TWC was last represented at Telluride in 2015 with Todd Haynes' Carol.

In the dozen fests I have attended I only actually saw Weinstein with my own eyes in 2014 when The Imitation Game was playing the fest.

I recall some behind-the-scene angst in 2013 when I thought that Philomena would play TFF and did not.  The rumor was that it was a last minute pull and that TWC replaced it with Salinger.

I can recall being more than a little surprised in 2012 as I was going into The Chuck to see The Sapphires and was stopped by name by a representative from TWC saying that she'd like to get my reaction to the film afterwards.  I was stunned that they had any idea who I was and had a nice conversation after the film which I had really enjoyed.

So...

Weinstein is now gone from the membership of The Academy and is out at TWC.  I'm not sure where all of this will ultimately end up but I hope for some measure of justice for all the women that have come forward these past few days.

Here's Anne Thompson's Indiewire story from Sunday about Weinstein's ejection from AMPAS.


That'll do it for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.


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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The Distributors: The Weinstein Company / Annecy Audiences Loved Loving Vincent / Awards Circuit Takes a Stab

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope all fathers had a nice day yesterday.


THE DISTRIBUTORS: THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY

After having at least one film play at Telluride each year that I have been attending (since 2006) last year was the first in which there was no film on the playlist from The Weinstein Company.  One might have thought (and I did for awhile) that The Founder or Lion might have played but that did not happen.

Here's the recent history of TWC (and before that, Miramax) from 2006 to the present:

2015: Carol
2014: The Imitation Game, Escobar: Paradise Lost, Keep On Keepin'On
2013: The Unknown, Salinger, Tracks
2012: The Sapphires
2011: The Artist, Butter
2010: The King's Speech
2009: The Road
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2006: Venus, Indigenes

So the question becomes, "Will TWC return to TFF and if so, with what films?"

As I write this on Monday morning, TWC really seems to have on;y two films that are dated appropriately and with enough buzz to be serious Telluride (and for that matter, Venice, Toronto, New York, London) consideration.

The Current War and Mary Magdalene.  Let's breakdown each in terms of its TFF possibility.

The Current War stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse respectively and focuses on the battle between them to determine which form of electricity, Alternating Current or Direct Current, would dominate American electrical delivery.

The film is directed by Alonso Gomez-Rejon who has worked in the past for Alejandro Inarritu, Martin Scorsese and Ben Affleck.  Gomez-Rejon was a second unit director for Argo and for Babel.

I have heard via a back channel some scuttlebutt from a screening of the film that was less than stellar but, this far out, I don't think that necessarily removes The Current War from the TFF discussion.

Mary Magdalene stars Rooney Mara as Mary and Joaquin Phoenix as Jesus in a film that tells the story of the female follower of Christ.  Garth Davis (Lion) directs.  Additionally, one of the film's producers is Iain Canning who also produced The King's Speech, Shame and Hunger; all of which played Telluride.

My feeling is that it's more likely than not that TWC returns to Telluride in 2017 with one film (as you might note, the average for TWC is 1.6 films per year).  

My guesstimate at the moment is that The Current War has a slightly better chance than Mary Magdalene but that advantage is minuscule.

Chances: The Current War 51%, Mary Magdalene 49%.

Tomorrow, a look at Fox Searchlight.

ANNECY AUDIENCES LOVED LOVING VINCENT

The Annecy International Animated Film Festival concluded at the end of this past week with awards going primarily to Japanese film makers but the audience award went to Loving Vincent which I highlighted here last week.

The film likely gets a boost from the win both for Oscar consideration as well as for a Telluride play.

Check here for Variety's complete report about the awards at the conclusion of the festival.

AWARDS CIRCUIT TAKES A STAB

Clayton Davis' Circuitbreaker podcast from Awards Circuit was up this past weekend with a number of topics covered in the 1:20 long program.  The last 20 minutes or so beginning at the 55:35 mark starts as a discussion about the selection of Richard Linklater's Last Flag Flying as the opening night film for the New York Film Festival.  That leads to a far ranging discussion about where Davis and his crew think a lot of films will land at fall festivals including Telluride.  Those four titles are electrifying,

The four films that are named as Telluride plays (in order that they're mentioned in the podcast) are:

Woody Allen's Wonder Wheel

Alexander Payne's Downsizing

Denis Villeneuve's Blade Runner 2049

Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The inclusion of Downsizing isn't a surprise but Wonder Wheel, Three Billboards and Blade Runner 2049 would all be surprises.

The complete Circuitbreaker podcast can be found here.

That's a wrap for this Monday.

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Who Gets a Tribute?/EW Looks at "99 Homes"/Alexander Payne in the News: "Nebraska" in Color and "Sideways" Tenth

Good Wednesday everyone...


WHO GETS A TRIBUTE?

I was noodling around the rising suspicion that Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman" will be screened in just over three weeks in Telluride and as I was doing that, it struck me that a TLJ tribute in coordination with that film.  I can see it pretty clearly.  Maybe co-star and two time Oscar winner Hilary Swank attends as well. Makes a lot of sense to me.

And that got me to thinking seriously about other tribute possibilities.

Pete Hammond suggested a couple of weeks ago that Telluride might be dangling the tribute carrot in front of Chris Nolan in a play to get "Interstellar" on board.  I've never thought it was a big likelihood and recent buzz is that no fest may have the film on its lineup.

I have suggested Nicole Kidman as a tribute possible in conjunction with the almost certain play of "Queen of the Desert".

I have also mentioned a Juliette Binoche tribute should Olivier Assasyas "Clouds of Sils Maria" be a T-ride selection.

Some weeks back, I mentioned a Michael Keaton tribute as a possibility with the screening of "Birdman", although that does seem a little far fetched.

How about Tim Burton if Telluride gets "Big Eyes"...yeah. that would make some sense.

Those seem the best bets to me for tributes, at least for the moment.  Got any ideas?  Comment and let me know.

EW LOOKS AT "99 HOMES"

"99 Homes" with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon via Entertainment Weekly

Entertainment Weekly was up yesterday with a first photo from Ramin Bahrani's "99 Homes" as you can see above.  The film is scheduled to play the Venice fest in competition and I think, given its premiere status vis-a-vis Toronto that it's very likely to play Telluride as well.  Bahrani was at T-ride in 2012 with "At Any Price" with star Dennis Quaid in attendance as well.  "at Any Price" didn't exactly set the world on fire scoring a 60 rating at Metacritic and earning a reported $379,000 domestically.

"99 Homes" focuses on the U.S. housing crisis as Garfield plays a man who gets in over his head and ends up working with Michael Shannon who plays an unscrupulous realtor.

Stories are included here from Entertainment Weekly and The Playlist:

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2014/08/05/andrew-garfield-michael-shannon-99-homes/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/venice-first-look-michael-shannon-andrew-garfield-in-ramin-bahranis-99-homes-20140805


Couple of stray thoughts: "Spiderman vs. General Zod".

And one wonders if Garfield, who attended the fest 2010 with "Never Let Me Go" might return and if he does, if it's possible that his current significant other, Ms. Emma Stone, might be there as well as she's co-starring in Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman".


ALEXANDER PAYNE IN THE NEWS: "NEBRASKA" IN COLOR

Past TFF Guest Director and frequent attendee, Alexander Payne popped up in  my Twitter feed a couple of times yesterday.  First came the news that his Oscar nominated "Nebraska", which was one of my favorite films at the 40th Telluride last year, will look a little different when it's aired on EpixHD TV.  They will air the color version which Payne shot for overseas screening but who was reportedly hopeful that U.S. audiences would never see it that way.

Guess some of us will now.

Thompson on Hollywood has the story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/color-version-of-nebraska-to-show-on-epix-that-alexander-payne-hoped-would-never-be-seen-20140805


PAYNE IN NEWS 2: "SIDEWAYS" TENTH

Payne and his star from "Sideways" Paul Giamatti celebrated the tenth anniversary of the film this past weekend.  "Sideways" was very close to having been a Telluride choice back in 2004 and that near miss is what ultimately led to Payne's stint as TFF Guest Director in 2009.  After that, Payne has been hooked.  I really expect that he'll be in town in three weeks in some capacity, perhaps just hanging with girlfriend Laura Dern...are they still a couple?   (I think so.)  Dern has a couple of films in which she appears that are probably on the Telluride Billl of Fare: "99 Homes" and "Wild"...

Anyway, Payne and Giamatti used the occasion of the Oscar winning film's anniversary to fund raise for a good cause and highlight the wine that was at the heart of the film.

Check the story from The Hollywood Reporter here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/sideways-10th-anniversary-celebrated-at-723322


More on Thursday...

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Invitation/Iceman Will Thaw in T-ride/More from Toronto/Future Telluride

Good Wednesday to Everyone!


INVITATION

Another reminder to join me at The River Club on Friday, Aug. 31 at 5:00PM for the Second Annual "Guide to the Ride; Flow of the SHOW". Last year was a lot of fun and we're going to try our level best to have a great time again this year. So, come, enjoy. We may have a special guest or two...we're trying anyway.


THE ICEMAN WILL THAW IN T-RIDE

It's one of those quirky rabbit hole trails that I went down on the internet yesterday and lo and behold, it looks to have paid off.  I can say with some level of confidence that Ariel Vromen's "The Iceman" will be playing at Telluride in 2 1/2 weeks.  "The Iceman" is a true crime/mob story featuring Michael Shannon, James Franco, Chris Evans, Winona Ryder and Ray Liotta.  Vromen directed and co-wrote with Morgan Land.

"The Iceman" was given up as a Telluride film in a post on...of all places...MafiaToday.com...I'm not kidding.  You can find the entirety of that post here:
http://mafiatoday.com/tag/richard-the-iceman-kuklinski/

That post correctly reports that "The Iceman" is programmed at Toronto and Venice which lends a good deal of credence to the Telluride claim.  Could it be that Mafia Today has broken Telluride's own "Omerta/Code of Silence"?  Looks like it.

"Iceman's" IMDb entry is here:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1491044/


MORE FROM TORONTO

The Toronto International Film Festival looks to have completed their lineup with another huge announcement of films yesterday including the word that their fest will close with "Song for Marion" which has been very high on my Telluride possibles list all summer long.  It's inclusion as the TIFF closer doesn't absolutely nuke it from Telluride consideration...but it also doesn't help.  I've had "Song" as a "Ten Bets" film for a good portion of the run up to T-ride but have let it slide off the list of late...maybe for good reason now.

HitFix has the complete lowdown on all the films added yesterday here:
http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/new-films-from-nick-cassavetes-ed-burns-and-peter-webber-join-toronto-film-festival-2012-lineup

Among the films added that are Telluride possibles (at least according to me):

"Song for Marion"  (still going to say that there is a chance)
"Love is All You Need"
"On the Road"
"Passion"
"Therese Desqueyroux"
"Yellow"
"In the Fog"


FUTURE TELLURIDE

Two developments yesterday that have a better than fair chance of impacting Telluride Film Fests in the future.  Director/writer Jason Reitman tweeted that he had wrapped his latest "Labor Day" starring Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin and accompanied that tweet with this pic:

And we found out from multiple sources that it appears that Robert Pattinson will work with Telluride regular Werner Herzog in "Queen of the Desert".  This from IMDb news:
http://www.imdb.com/news/ni34121933



More later...

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