Monday, October 16, 2017

Supporting Players Oscar Chances / Awards Daily's Latest Oscar Take / Weinstein Out of AMPAS

Welcome back from the weekend and to this Monday in October...


Since I got this year's FAC underway in last Thursday's post (with looks at the Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor categories), I thought I'd continue today with a review of where the Supporting Acting races look to stand at this point in mid-October.

Telluride #44 performances are in Bold.


1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World

Adding the first two FACs of the season together, here's where TFF #44 films stand in terms of the six categories that get the most attention:

Darkest Hour- Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and also a possible shot at Supporting Actress.

The Shape of Water-Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actress and Supporting Actress.  The other possibility is Supporting Actor.

Lady Bird-One nomination and two potentials.  Nom: Supporting Actress.  Other possibilities are Best Picture and Actress.

Downsizing has a possible nomination for Supporting Actress.

Battle of the Sexes is possible for Best Actress.


Sasha Stone's Awards Daily website ( posted its latest collection of Oscar predictions in her weekly "Predictions Friday" post.

TFF #44 films according to Stone grab nominations as follows:

Darkest Hour (10) Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

The Shape of Water (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

Lady Bird (3): Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Battle of the Sexes (2): Picture, Actress

Wonderstruck (1): Adapted Screenplay

The complete Predictions Friday from Awards Daily is here.


It seemed like I should probably mention something about Harvey Weinstein in light of all of the furor of the past few days and his expulsion Saturday from The Academy of Motion Picture Hearts and Sciences.

Just a couple of notes...

The Weinstein Company has certainly been a presence (and Miramax before TWC) in the years I have been attending TFF.  Since I started going to T-ride, I count 18 films from one or the other of the companies including Oscar Best Picture winners The King's Speech and The Artist.  Other notable films from TWC or Miramax at TFF the last 12 fests included: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I'm Not There, The Imitation Game and The Road.

There were other films from Weinstein at the fest before I started going such as Finding Neverland and Lost in Translation.

From my notes, TWC was last represented at Telluride in 2015 with Todd Haynes' Carol.

In the dozen fests I have attended I only actually saw Weinstein with my own eyes in 2014 when The Imitation Game was playing the fest.

I recall some behind-the-scene angst in 2013 when I thought that Philomena would play TFF and did not.  The rumor was that it was a last minute pull and that TWC replaced it with Salinger.

I can recall being more than a little surprised in 2012 as I was going into The Chuck to see The Sapphires and was stopped by name by a representative from TWC saying that she'd like to get my reaction to the film afterwards.  I was stunned that they had any idea who I was and had a nice conversation after the film which I had really enjoyed.


Weinstein is now gone from the membership of The Academy and is out at TWC.  I'm not sure where all of this will ultimately end up but I hope for some measure of justice for all the women that have come forward these past few days.

Here's Anne Thompson's Indiewire story from Sunday about Weinstein's ejection from AMPAS.

That'll do it for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.


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