CinemaCon Reveals Some TFF Potential / Leigh's Peterloo Will Be on the Trail / No Cannes Screening But New Stills: Quixote / Payne Talks Downsizing Challenges

Good Monday Film Fans...


CINEMACON REVEALS SOME TFF POTENTIAL

The annual Las Vegas Show and Tell known as CinemaCon has opened and closed.  The event ran from Apr. 23-26 at Caesar's Palace in Sin City.  The event which traditionally focused on showcasing films that are expected or hoped to be big summer releases has also edged into offering glimpses of fall prestige releases.

That was certainly the case this year as a number of films that are already being buzzed about as potential awards contenders were featured.  That means we TFF fans probably ought to pay some attention to what was teased and the reactions that those teases evoked.

Variety posted a handy-dandy and comprehensive listing of films that showed up last week ands rated their assessment of the reactions from CinemaCon attendees.

The "hottest" film according to Variety that has been on my Telluride-radar is Damian Chazelle's First Man starring Ryan Gosling as American hero Neil Armstrong.  Variety has it as its third "hottest" title of the films teased in Vegas.  I have a comment about the films that Variety had as the two hottest below.

Other TFF possibles and their relative "hotness" position according to Variety:

Boy Erased at #7
Mary Queen of Scots at #9
Beautiful Boy at #20


The Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody was listed at #2 and I still doubt that it's a likely Telluride fit but Bradley Cooper's A Star Is Born re-make with Lady Gaga  was listed at #1 and I think I am going to have to start seriously thinking about it as a possible TFF inclusion.  I've resisted that up until now largely because I was reluctant to believe that there would be much excitement about a film on its fourth time around.  The buzz was already strong, however,  leading up to the CinemaCon presentation and with the strong reaction there...I'm beginning to think that I can't just reject the possibility of a San Juan play out of hand.

Warners has the distribution rights and over the last few years with Argo (12), Prisoners and Gravity (13), Black Mass (15) and Sully (16) their presence has been felt.   SO...maybe A Star Is Born (#4)...

Here is a smattering of coverage from CinemaCon focused on possible TFF films:

Indiewire on Beautiful Boy

Indiewire on Widows

Indiewire on First Man



LEIGH'S PETERLOO WILL BE ON THE TRAIL

Many (including myself) thought Mike Leigh's Peterloo would be on the list of Palme d'Or competition films.  It was a bit of a surprise when that didn't happen.

Deadline reports this week, though, that the film "will be making a play at the fall film festivals".  Past that there are no specific details but considering Leigh's lengthy history with Telluride, you still have to think that a play at The SHOW is likely one of the"fall festivals: where the film could land.

The complete Deadline post is here.


 NO CANNES SCREENING BUT NEW STILLS: QUIXOTE

SlashFilm (/Film) posted a story this week that, again , lays out the latest legal bump in the road of a Cannes screening of Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote.  The story itself doesn't truly break any new ground or provide new legal details or nuance but it does include ten new photos from the film.

I've posted a couple of them here and you can take a look at all of them linked at /Film's story.

PAYNE TALKS DOWNSIZING CHALLENGES

Photo from Indiewire

It's no secret that Alexander Payne's Downsizing had a rocky release both commercially (IMDb says it was a $68 million budget and a $39 million global gross) and critically...his lowest Metacritic score of all of the seven feature films he has directed at a 63).

Payne, who has become a staple figure at Telluride since his inclusion as Guest Director in 2009, spoke recently to Dick Cavett at a presentation during the just concluded Tribeca Film Festival.  Michael Nordine of Indiewire covered the conversation.

You can peruse the Indiewire story here.

Payne was recently announced to direct The Burial.  The film is based on a true story about corporate corruption in the funeral industry from a script from Golden Globe and  nominated and Tony Award winning writer Doug Wright (Quills, I Am My Own Wife).

That's a wrap for this last Monday in April.  More to come on Thursday.

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Telluride Time Travel-The 11th Telluride Film Festival / Looking Back at Last Year's Oscar Predictions

Good Thursday...

TELLURIDE TIME TRAVEL- THE 11TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

I'm continuing my TFF history project in today's post includes a quick look back at the 11th Telluride Film Festival.  TFF #11 occurred on Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 1984.  Highlights:

Tribute Recipients were: Henry Hathaway, Janet Leigh and Andrzej Wajda.

SHOWS:

Act of Violence
Almonds and Raisins
America and Lewis Hine
Camila
Cheaters
Coup De Torchon
Everything for Sale
Full Moon in Paris
Go Masters
Go Tell It on the Mountain
The Holy Innocents
L'Hirondelle et la Mesange
The Last Campaign
Lonely Hearts
Love in Germany
Maidstone
Man of Flowers
Milky Way
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
My First Wife
Paris, Texas
Peter Ibbetson
A Poet in the Cinema: Andrey Tarkovsky
Providence
Raw Deal
Reign of Terror
Repo Man
Slightly Scarlett
Steaming
Stranger than Paradise
Sunday in the Country
The Times of Harvey Milk
To the Last Man
Where the Green Ants Dream
Wooden Crosses


Participants (partial list):

Ry Cooder
Athol Fugard
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Klaus Kinski
Jessica Lange
Norman Mailer
Sam Sheperd
Dean Stockwell
Bertrand Travernier
Harry Dean Stanton
Wim Wenders

TFF #11 became an important fest to remember this year with the death of Harry Dean Stanton.




LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Every year after the Oscar ceremony ends, there are some pundits who turn the page very quickly and predict possible players for the Oscar race a year out.  I scour those for clues about films that could become Telluride invitees.

I thought today, with Oscar 2018 less than a month away, it might be interesting to see what that looked like.  For example, in my Mar. 2, 2017 post I included a link to an Awards Circuit story that named 50 anticipated films.

From that list I named Downsizing, Battle of the Sexes and Wonderstruck as TFF possibilities (and they have zero nominations between them).  I also incorrectly guessed The Current War, Suburbicon and Molly's Game.

That MTFB post is here.

A more Oscar specific Awards Circuit article was referenced on Mar. 9th.

I culled that list of films and named possible TFF films which included: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Wonderstruck, Lean on Pete and The Shape of Water.

That post is here.

And Glenn Whipp took a stab for the L.A. Times which I evaluated and named Downsizing, Wonderstruck and hinted at Darkest Hour.

So as we move to the end of Oscar season, know this...there will be a new set of these type of articles soon and I will examine those for TFF #45 possibilities.

You can't stop what's coming.


My analysis of The L.A. Times article is here.

That's your MTFB for Thursday.  More Monday.

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MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

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The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES

With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR

As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Shape of Water

5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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The FAC Updated Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Telluride Time Tunnel-Re-visiting TFF #13 / RT's Top 100 Films of 2017

HAPPY NEW 2018!


Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC).

THE FAC UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Taking a look today at four categories to update them as we begin the new year.  Also a mention that the Golden Globe Awards are less than a week away.  They'll be announced on Sunday, Jan. 7th.

As always, the films/performers from TFF #44 films are indicated with Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Supporting races were last predicted in this space on Dec. 4th.  In that post the Supporting Actress race looked like this :

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Four weeks later, here's where we stand:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

Comment:  Blige has really seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.  The top spot is still very tight but Metcalf seems to have the edge at the moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

From a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


The updated predictions:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:  Nice surges for Jenkins and Harrelson.  Dafoe looks like the solid favorite to win at this point.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The screenplay categories are being updated for the first time since Nov. 9th...

Here's what was out front nearly two months back:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman

And today's update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

Comment:  A very stable category for the last two months.  The fifth spot is a toss up.  The top four seem to be in good shape.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

From Nov. 9th:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya

And the new FAC prediction says:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

Comment: Phantom Thread supplants Darkest Hour in the conversation for the last spot.

TELLURIDE TIME TUNNEL-RE-VISITING TFF #13

MTFB continues its months long review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. 

You may recall that I started this project back on April 13, 2017.  The goal here is to provide a place on the interwebs where someone could get a relatively complete look at what played at each Telluride Film Fest (in as far as feature films are concerned) since its inception.

As I have written on a couple of occasions, the current official Telluride Film Festival website has links to the programs for fests from 2006 to last year's program.  Prior to 2006, I am unaware of any other collection of data for TFF online.  This is an attempt to provide that.

So, we pick up where we left off with a look at the films and personalities of TFF #13.  The 13th Telluride Film Festival took place  from Aug. 29-September 1, 1986.

Tributes: Alexander Mackendrick, Jiri Menzel and Isabelle Huppert.

Also of note, a retrospective of the films of Anthony Mann labeled Mann of the West that featured the one and only Jimmy Stewart in person.

SHOWS:

The Biscuit Eater
Blue Velvet
Cactus
Closely Watched Trains
The Decline of the American Empire
Devil in the Flesh
Document: Fanny and Alexander
Eat the Peach
Eraserhead
The Gay Desperado
The Interrogation
The Lacemaker
The Ladykillers
A Lonely Woman
Los Inundados
The Man form Laramie
Mother Teresa
My Little Village
No End
The River's Edge
The Sacrifice
Sacrificed Youth
Seize the Day
Smasher
The Sweet Smell of Success
Therese
Tire Die
Too Far to Go
We Are the Living
Winchester 73
The Witch
Working Girls


Guests:

Denys Arcand
Laura Dern
Crispin Glover
Agnieszka Holland
Chuck Jones
David Lynch
Kyle MacLachlan
Anne Meara
Jerry Stiller
James Stewart
Robin Williams


I'm trying to imagine a weekend where I might have seen James Stewart, Robin Williams and David Lynch around town and also have caught screenings of Blue Velvet, The River's Edge, Winchester 73 and The Sweet Smell of Success.


RT'S TOP 100 FILMS OF 2017

Rotten Tomatoes has released its list of the top 100 films rated on their site for 2017.  The list includes a number of titles from both TFF #44 as well as TFF #43.

Those from TFF #44 making the grade are:

#91-The Other Side of Hope
#68-Human Flow
#67-Battle of the Sexes
#26-Faces Places
#20-The Shape of Water
#5-Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out is rated as the top film by RT for 2017.

TFF #43 films that made the RT Top 100 are:

#97-Maudie
#81-Frantz
#64-I Called Him Morgan
#61-The B-Side:Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
#44-Graduation
#35-Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds

The complete RT Top 100 list is linked here.




That's your first MTFB for 2018.  There will probably be more. Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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MTFB Landmark-400,000 / The Oscar Landscape / The Critical Landscape

Good Monday to everyone and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the holiday.


MTFB LANDMARK-400,000

Over the weekend Michael's Telluride Film Blog recorded its 400,000th view.  Hard for me to believe.

As always, thanks to the dedicated readers and fans of the Telluride Film Festival as well as the Oscar race that take a peek at this space from time to time.  Truly unbelievable to me.


THE OSCAR LANDSCAPE

Taking a look at the Gurus of Gold charts reported this week...for Best Picture the new number one is Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird

Also in play are TFF #44 films The Shape of Water at #5 and Darkest Hour at #9.

For Best Actor the only TFF #44 Actor/Film in play is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour who remains at #1.

For Best Supporting Actor-The Shape of Water's Richard Jenkins sits at #4

and for Best Director-Guillermo Del Toro is at #1 for The Shape of Water while Lady Bird's Greta Gerwig is at #3.

Sasha Stone covers the Gurus with a post at her site linked here.

Meanwhile, Stone's own internal Awards Daily "Awards Squad" has TFF #44 films/performers listed as follows:

Best Picture: The Shape of Water at #1, Lady Bird at #4 and Darkest Hour at #9.
Best Direction: Del Toro/The Shape of Water at #2, Gerwig/Lady Bird #6
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird #1, Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water #3, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes #7
Best Actor: Oldman/Darkest Hour #1, Christian Bale/Hostiles #10
Best Supporting Actress:Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird #2, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water #3, Hong Chau/Downsizing #6
Best Supporting Actor: Jenkins/The Shape of Water #6, Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water #8, Tracy Letts/Lady Bird #9
Adapted Screenplay: Wonderstruck #5, First They Killed My Father #10
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird #2, The Shape of Water #4
Film Editing: The Shape of Water #2, Darkest Hour #9, Lady Bird #11
Cinematography: The Shape of Water #3, Wonderstruck #6, Darkest Hour #7

The complete rundown of the Awards Daily Oscar Squad is here.


THE CRITICAL LANDSCAPE

Last Thursday I included as a part of the post a link to Indiewire's collection from 200 critics of the best films of 2017.  That list was truncated but now Indiewire has posted the 50 Best Films according to that critical compilation.  From that list five TFF #44 films made the grade:

at #46-Battle of the Sexes
#41-Darkest Hour
#36-Hostiles
#6-The Shape of Water
#2 Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out was the top film according to the 200 critics that Indiewire surveyed.  The complete gallery of their top 50 is here.


And that'll be a wrap for the Dec. 25th edition of MTFB.


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SAG-Aftra Nominations and Ruminations / Lean on Pete Poster / A Closer Look at Loving Vincent / Focus on Loveless

Good Thursday everyone.


SAG-AFTRA NOMINATIONS AND RUMINATIONS

SAG-Aftra, the actors guild, named its 25 nominees for outstanding acting for 2017 on Tuesday.  Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri led the way with four nominations including one for Best Ensemble.

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was the TFF #44 front runner with three nominations: Best Ensemble, Lead Actress-Saoirse Ronan and Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf.

Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water gained two nominations: Lead Actress-Sally Hawkins and Supporting Actor-Richard Jenkins

Other TFF #44 films that earned a single nomination were Gary Oldman for Lead Actor in Darkest Hour, Steve Carell for Lead Actor in Battle of the Sexes and Hong Chau for Supporting Actress for Downsizing.

Other Ensemble nominees were: The Big Sick, Get Out and Mudbound.

Complete nominations and analysis are linked here:

Indiewire/Anne Thompson

Indiewire/Jenna Marotta

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg

Vulture/Kyle Buchanan

The winners will be announced on January 21st.


LEAN ON PETE POSTER

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy reports that Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete has anew poster:

Lean on Pete features an awards worthy performance from young actor Charlie Plummer and is set for release in the U.S. on Mar. 30th.

Here's the story from World of Reel.


A CLOSER LOOK AT LOVING VINCENT

Indiewire's Tom Bruggemann posted a story this week at Indiewire that details the process that brought animated feature Loving Vincent to Telluride and the big screen this week.

The film is considered to be a serious contender for an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature. 

The film details the life of artist Vincent Van Gogh and does so in a film in which all of the frames that make up the film have been hand painted in Van Gogh's style.

That story is here..


FOCUS ON LOVELESS

Screen International's Tom Grater penned a profile this week on Russian film maker Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless. The film is Zvyagintsev's follow up to his 2014 Oscar nominated Leviathan.  Loveless is expected to be on the Foreign Language Oscar short list that will be announced soon.

Here's the link to that profile.




That's the Thursday edition of MTFB...more to come on Monday.

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TFF #44 and The Critic's Choice / TFF #45 Anyone? / Deadline Talks To Lady Bird

Hello to everyone on this Thursday...


TFF #44 AND THE CRITIC'S CHOICE

The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominations for end of the year superlatives in both film and television on Tuesday and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water lead all films with 14 nominations.  Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was among a group of films with the second highest total of nominations with eight.

Here's the rundown of all 33 nominations received by films that played at Telluride in 2017:

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Actress-Sally Hawkins, Supporting Actress-Octavia Spencer, Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Score and Best SciFi/Horror Film.

Lady Bird (8): Best Picture, Actress-Saoirse Ronan, Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf, Ensemble, Direction, Actress in a Comedy-Ronan and Best Comedy Film

Darkest Hour (4): Best Picture, Actor-Gary Oldman, Makeup and Score

Battle of the Sexes (2) Best Actress in a Comedy(Emma Stone), Best Actor in a Comedy (Steve Carell)

Downsizing (1): Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)

Wonderstruck (1): Best Young Actor/Actress (Millicent Simmonds)

Loving Vincent (1): Best Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1): Best Foreign Language Film

First They Killed My Father (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Other films that snagged eight nominations were: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and The Post.  Blade Runner 2049 had seven nominations.

The announcements were something of a bounce back for The Shape of Water which had not gotten much love in earlier key announcements from the National Board of Review or the New York or Los Angeles film critics organizations.

I was also personally thrilled to see Richard Jenkins name among the Supporting Actor nominees for The Shape of Water as I have been stumping for his inclusion since the lights came up after the film screened in Telluride back over Labor Day weekend.

Sad, though, that my other awards choice, Harry Dean Stanton in the non-Telluride film Lucky, didn't land a nod for Best Actor.

The next big awards splash happens later today with the announcement of accolades from The American Film Institute.  Then, next Tuesday, Golden Globe nominations will be revealed.

The complete list of Critic's Choice nominations is here.

The Critic's Choice Awards will be handed out on Jan. 11th at 8:00om EST on The CW network.


TFF #45 ANYONE?

The Playlist has dropped the annual 100 Most Anticipated Films list.  That was posted on Tuesday.

I have made it a habit over the last several years to use that list as a starting point for serious TFF speculation for the upcoming year.  Sure, we're nine months away from Labor Day weekend 2018 and a lot can change between now and then but, hey, "why not take a shot?" says I.

Last year when the list came out I named 20 films that might make the TFF #44 program.  Of those 20, nine made The SHOW: A Fantastic Woman, Battle of the Sexes, Lady Bird, The Other Side of Hope, Lean on Pete, Downsizing, Loveless, The Shape of Water and Wonderstruck.  An additional film that I didn't name also made The SHOW: Darkest Hour.

In 2016, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time).  The only film among them that I named: Neruda. 

In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.

In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.

So the averages suggest that the list below will contain 4-5 films that will actually make the TFF #45 lineup (unless I replicate the success I had for this year)  and the eight films total that are on the complete list of 100 films will make the T-ride program.

So...here are 20 films that appear on The Playlist's 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2018 that I think have the best shot at making it to the San Juans next Labor Day.

Initially, begin with five films that the post itself suggests could play Telluride:

#83-Mid-90's-Jonah Hill directs a coming of age comedy.  Key reason it plays: Distribution from A24.

#72-The Front Runner-The true story of the downfall of Presidential aspirant Gary Hart played by Hugh Jackman and directed Jason Reitman.  After running two hits through Telluride: Juno and Up in the Air, Reitman did not have Young Adult there and then did have the critical and commercial misfire Labor Day, Reitman is due for a return to his original form and consequently a return to T-ride.

#38-Untitled Noah Baumbach Project,  Baumbach had Margot at the Wedding at The SHOW in 2007 and the fantastic Frances Ha in 2012 (which may have helped lay the groundwork for Greta Gerwig's solo directing debut, Lady Bird) but hasn't been back since.  This might be the project that marks his return.

#25-First Man-The story of astronaut Neil Armstrong from director Damien Chazelle starring Ryan Gosling (two collaborators on last year's La La Land).  The high profile expected for this film plus the undeniable success of La La Land suggests that Chazelle would probably be up for a return to TFF.  The picture is from Universal, however, which hasn't exactly been a familiar player at the fest over the years.

#1- If Beale Street Could Talk-The Playlist's #1 most anticipated film is Barry Jenkins' followup to his Oscar winning and Telluride debuting Moonlight.  Just like The Playlist, I fully expect the film to bow at TFF #45.  The film is distributed by Annapurna which is getting into the portion of the business after having been a production firm until now.

In addition to these five films I have zeroed in on another 15 that could make an appearance at Telluride:

#76-Kursk
#75-Private Life
#71-Cold War
#52-E-Book
#40-Fahrenheit 451
#31-Peterloo
#22-The Other Side f the Wind
#21-The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#19-Sunset
#17-The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#13-Maya
#12-Everybody Knows
#11-The Sisters Brothers
#8-Widows
#3- Roma

 Let's see how many of these we actually do see when the TFF #45 schedule is unveiled on Aug. 30th.


DEADLINE TALKS TO LADY BIRD

As a part of their "Contender Series" videos, Deadline recently sat down with Greta Gerwig, Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf (all recognized with nominations from the BFCA this week) to talk about Lady Bird.  Here it is from YouTube:

That's it for today.  Come back for more on Monday.


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