Trailers for Foreign Film Contenders from TFF #45 / Chazelle Talks First Man and More / Indiewire's List of 32

Welcome back form the first weekend of October.  Fall arrived here in Oklahoma over the weekend with temps in the 90's Friday and in the 60's Saturday.  Hello Autumn!

TRAILERS FOR FOREIGN FILM CONTENDERS FROM TFF #45

Both Hirokazu Kore-eda's Palme d'Or Cannes prize winning Shoplifters and Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War which won Best Director at Cannes figure to be serious contenders for Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nominations and could give Alfonso Cuaron's Roma a run for the money to win the award.  Both films had releases at the end of this past week of trailers to best their hype before their U.S. release.  Cold War is dated for a Dec. 21st release whereas Shoplifters is Nov. 23rd.  (By the way, it appears that Roma is likely to be released in some theaters on Dec. 14th prior to its streaming availability from Netflix , which produced the film per Indiewire).

Here is the trailer for Cold War from YouTube:

And also from YouTube, the trailer for Shoplifters:

I have linked stories of the trailers' releases.  For Cold War from Indiewire and for Shoplifters from The Playlist and Indiewire.

CHAZELLE TALKS FIRST MAN AND MORE

With the release of Damien Chazelle's First Man just days away (opening Oct. 12th, this Friday), it was not surprising to see Chazelle turn up at the end of last week as Kris Tapley's guest on Variety's Playback Podcast.

Chazelle talks, of course, about his upcoming film that tells the story of Neil Armstrong (Ryan Gosling) and the first moon landing.  He also talks about other topics including that famous Oscar moment from a year and a half ago.

Here's the link to the podcast.  Enjoy!

INDIEWIRE'S LIST OF 32

Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich and Kate Erbland at Indiewire have compiled a list of 32 independent films that they claim are the best 32 Indies of the year thus far.  

The list includes several films from TFF #44.  Why only one TFF #45 Indie's you ask?  Many have yet to be officially released.  I suspect the list will get larger and the crew at Indiewire says as much in the article.

Included on the list from TFF #44 are:

First Reformed

The Rider

Lean on Pete

Foxtrot 

A Fantastic Woman

The lone TFF #45 film so far is Free Solo which opened Sept. 28th.

Their top choice of all 32 films is Tamara Jenkins Private Life (First Reformed sits at #2).

The complete list from Indiewire is here.

That's your MTFB for this Monday.  I'll have more in my next regularly schedule post on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...


MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations.  Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%.  It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up  more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical.  "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie


ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post,  I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock


ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.  The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair.  Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances.  If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in.  Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP.  Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short


Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4


FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations


Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography,  Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations


Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.


Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12):  Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.


Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch


The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does.  It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from: 

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday.  I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

The FAC Predicts Foreign, Animated, Doc and Shorts / The Film Stage Looks Forward to 2018 / Hope for The Other Side the Wind

Good Thursday film friends and a big shout out to any and all of you Sundancers as that film fest launches today.  What will be this year's Get Out, Mudbound or Call Me By Your Name?


THE FAC PREDICTS FOREIGN, ANIMATED, DOC AND SHORTS

There are just a few days left before the live reveal of all 24 categories of nominations for the Oscars for this year.  That is set to happen early on Tuesday morning, Jan. 23rd.  In my last post I updated a bunch of major categories and included predictions on a number of feature "under the line" categories.  Today, I complete the circle with predictions for the remaining six categories not covered on Monday.

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Foxtrot
2) Loveless
3) A Fantastic Woman
4) The Square
5) In the Fade

Others: The Insult, The Wound and Felicite.

Comment: This could be the most Telluride-centric category of the bunch.  If The Insult could supplant The Square or In the Fade, TFF #44 films would be 4 of the 5 nominees.  Realistically, the only other category that might approach that is Best Supporting Actress and that assumes that Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water-possible) Hong Chau (Downsizing-possible) or Kristen Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour-unlikely) join all but certain nominees Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird).

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) Lego Batman
5) The Boss Baby

Others: Despicable Me 3, Cars 3, Ferdinand


BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) Jane
2) Faces Places
3) Strong Island
4) Icarus
5) Last Men in Aleppo

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Dekalb Elementary
2) Facing Mecca
3) Watu Wote
4) Witnesses
5) Lost Face

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, The Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Dear Basketball
2) Lou
3) Cradle
4) In a Heartbeat
5) Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale


DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Eddie and Edith
2) Heroin(e)
3) Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets
4) Alone-The New York Times
5) 116 Cameras

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop


Added to the predicted total from last Monday's post, if The FAC is 100% accurate (and it won't be), TFF #44 films will collectively earn 30 Oscar nominations on Tuesday.  The average for TFF #44 over the past several years is 27.

Last year, though was an all timer for TFF as TFF #43 films racked up a total of 42 nominations.


THE FILM STAGE LOOKS FORWARD TO 2018

The Film Stage published their list of 100 "Most Anticipated" films for 2018 last week and a number of titles that I believe have Telluride potential made their list.

For example:

#99-First Man
#95- Backseat (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney film starring Christian Bale)
#94- The Widow
#93- The Little Stranger
#79- Kursk
#77- At Eternity's Gate (does Julian Schnabel return to Telluride?)
#71-Mid-90's
#67- Where Is Anne Frank?
#61- The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#52- Private Life
#50-Boy Erased
#48- Cold War
#46- The Sisters Brothers (does Audiard return to Telluride?)
#34- Sunset
#30- The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#28- Peterloo
#27- The Women of Marwen
#26- Roma
#16- E-Book
#11- Everybody Knows (does Farhadi return to Telluride?)
#8- Widows (Steve McQueen...)
#4- Maya
#2- If Beale Street Could Talk

The complete Film Stage post is here.



HOPE FOR THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WIND

For months now, we have been anticipating the arrival of the restoration of Orson Welles unfinished final film The Other Side of the Wind.  We knew that the work to put it together had been continuing. 

The anticipation may finally have a payoff.  The Film Stage reports that a version of the film was screened this week.  The Film Stage tweeted that information last night (derived from a WellesNet.com tweet:

This increases the chances that we could see the film in eight months in the San Juans.  Fingers crossed.

Here's The Film Stage with additional information on the project.

That's your MTFB for today.  Come back on Monday for final Oscar nomination predictions!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Tapley Taps in / Variety's Anticipation / U.S. Trailer for Foxtrot / Jenkins On The Shape of Water

Hello to all on this last Thursday in December and 2017.


TAPLEY TAPS IN

Kristopher Tapley of Variety/In Contention has been a big presence in this space over the past several years as one of the best and best known Oscar prognosticators in the business.  Since I began the practice of following Telluride films through the awards season, Tapley's take on the Oscar scene is one that I have referenced religiously for many years.  But this year, Tapley has been quiet.

Variety has him running their podcast interviews and that seems to have become his central responsibility there.  At any rate and forever reasons, Tapley hasn't had any set of published predictions yet this season...until this week.

Tapley's InContention went up on Tuesday with a full set of predictions in all 24 Oscar categories.

In terms of films from TFF #44...here's what Mr. T predicts:

The Shape of Water gets 12 nominations: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins-yeah!), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour gets 5: Actor, Cinematography, Makeup. Score and Production Design

Lady Bird gets 4: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay

And one nomination each for:
Downsizing: Supporting Actress
Loving Vincent: Animated Feature
The Insult: Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman: Foreign Language Film
Loveless: Foreign Language Film
Faces/Places: Documentary Feature
Heroin(e): Documentary Short

A total of 28 nominations for TFF #44 films  if Kris is 100% accurate which is right at the Telluride Oscar average over the past several years.

Other films Tapley names for Best Picture and their predicted total nominations are: Dunkirk-7, Call Me By Your Name-5, The Florida Project-3, Get Out-3, The Post-6 and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-6.

Tapley's complete set of predictions is here.



VARIETY'S ANTICIPATION

Also this week, Variety's critics gazed into their collective crystal ball and published a list of 20 films they are most excited to see in 2018.  Their list gives us a chance to ponder possible TFF #45 titles.

So, here are the films from Variety's 2018 most anticipated that feel like they have some T-ride potential:

Boy Erased-directed by Joel Edgerton
Burning -director Lee Chang-dong's last film was Poetry in 2010 which played Telluride
Everybody Knows- could be the film that gets Asghar Farhadi back to TFF
First Man- director Damien Chazelle's follow up to La La Land
The Man Who Killed Don Quixote- does Terry Gilliam return to TFF?
Roma-Alfonso Cuaron has been working on this since Gravity
The Sisters Brothers-Another possible return to TFF from Jacques Audiard
Sunset-director Laszlo Nemes first feature since his stunning Son of Saul

The complete listing of 20 films with commentary from Variety is linked here.



U.S. TRAILER FOR FOXTROT

Sony Pictures Classics Foreign Language Film Oscar contender Foxtrot from director and writer Samuel Maoz has its U.S. trailer which was released this week.

You can access it here from FirstShowing.net.



JENKINS ON THE SHAPE OF WATER

And finally today a link to a new interview from Deadline's Pete Hammond with Best Supporting Actor contender Richard Jenkins from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  As many of you know, Jenkins has been  a favorite of mine for Oscar consideration for this role since seeing the film.

That interview is here.


That's your last MTFB for 2017 friends.  I'll have 2018's first post (of some sort) up on Monday, Jan. 1, 2018.  Happy New Year and thanks for spending some of your 2017 reading these ramblings...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

SPECIAL POST: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Here's  a special post to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and the associated Film Awards Clearinghouse:  a round-up of Golden Globe nomination predictions for tomorrow morning.

The HFPA is set to announce their nominees for 2017's awards at 8:30am EST/5:30am PST- Monday morning.

I'll be posting a bit later tomorrow morning with the complete rundown of the actual nominees with particular attention, as you might expect, to the films that played as a part of TFF #44 (or #43 in a couple of possible cases).

I am passing along the picks from some of the best in the business.  All four of them think the TFF #44 films collectively will land nearly 20 nominations but there are some disagreements about how those 30 nominations will be spread.  Here they are:

SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY:

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (3): Best Picture-Drama, Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn)

Downsizing (3): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actor-Musical Comedy (Damon), Supporting Actress Chau).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature.

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44-20

Stone does not include picks for Foreign Language Film or Song.

Her complete picks are here at Awards Daily.


KRISTOPHER TAPLEY/VARIETY-IN CONTENTION

The Shape of Water (7): Best Picture-Drama, Actress/Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (4): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical/Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Screenplay.

Hostiles (1): Actor/Drama (Bale)

Darkest Hour (1): Actor/Drama (Oldman)

Battle of the Sexes (1): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone)

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress (Chau)

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (4): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, The Insult, Loveless

TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

His complete picks are here from Variety.


ANNE THOMPSON/INDIEWIRE

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Director, Screenplay, Score.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Darkest Hour (2): Actor-Drama (Oldman), Supporting Actor (Mendelsohn).

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell)

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot


TOTAL NOMINATIONS FROM TFF #44- 20

Her complete predictions from Indiewire.



STEVE POND/THE WRAP

The Shape of Water (6): Best Picture-Drama, Actress-Drama (Hawkins), Supporting Actress (Spencer), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Director, Score.

Darkest Hour (1): Actor-Drama (Oldman)

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actress-Musical Comedy (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Director, Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes (2): Actress-Musical/Comedy (Stone), Actor-Musical/Comedy (Carell).

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1): Song.

Foreign Language Films (3): First They Killed My Father, Foxtrot, A Fantastic Woman.


His complete predictions are here from The Wrap.


Things I am hoping for in the morning (some more realistic than others);

Harry Dean Stanton gets nominated for the non-Telluride film Lucky.

Richard Jenkins is nominated for Supporting Actor for The Shape of Water.

Greta Gerwig is nominated for Best Director for Lady Bird.

Tracy Letts is nominated for Supporting Actor for Lady Bird.

All five Foreign Language nominees are from TFF #44: First They Killed My Father, A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, The Insult and Loveless.


CHECK BACK TOMORROW MORNING FOR HOW IT ALL ACTUALLY GOES DOWN.

New Red Band Trailer for The Shape of Water / Lady Bird In the Spotlight / The Early FAC for Foreign and Animated

It's Monday, Nov. 13th and November continues apace...


NEW TRAILER FOR THE SHAPE OF WATER


We have a new and final trailer for Guillermo Del Toro's "adult fairy take" The Shape of Water.  Fair warning, it is a Red Band trailer...

The Shape of Water stars Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Octavia Spencer and Michael Stuhlbarg.  It is set to open domestically on Dec. 8th.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of the trailers' release.



LADY BIRD IN THE SPOTLIGHT

The onslaught of publicity for Greta Gerwig's solo directing debut, Lady Bird, gained incredible momentum this week as a ton of film sources posted interviews and profiles with Gerwig and cast members including Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf.

Lady Bird continues to be a dark horse in as far as Oscar speculation goes.  Laurie Metcalf is generally agreed upon as a nearly certain nominee for Supporting Actress and possibly your winner (though Alison Janney is generally regarded as a co-front runner for her performance in I, Tonya).

Personally, I've been saying that Lady Bird could be a much more serious player for a couple of weeks now.  I'm thinking nominations for Metcalf, Ronan, Gerwig for Original Screenplay and Picture with Gerwig having an outside shot at Best Directing.

Just yesterday Sasha Stone of Awards Daily publically made the case I've been contemplating on her website.

Check out these posts from the past week:

Variety's Screening Series presented by Film Struck.

Indiewire's Kate Erbland with Saoirse Ronan.

The Hollywood Reporter's Mia Galuppo writing about Gerwig.

Indiewire's Jenna Marotta on Laurie Metcalf.

The Gold Derby talks with Gerwig and Ronan.


AN EARLY LOOK AT THE FAC FOR FOREIGN FILMS AND ANIMATED FEATURE

Here is the initial take of The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the Foreign Language Film  and Animated Feature categories.

As is my custom, TFF #44 films are Bold.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS

1) Loveless
2) First They Killed My Father
3) In the Fade
4) Foxtrot
5) A Fantastic Woman

Others: The Square, BPM, The Insult


ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) The Lego Batman Movie
5) Ferdinand

Others; The Bass Baby, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3


That's your wrap for this Monday.  More will appear here on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Reprising TFF #44 / Stone's Take on the Oscar Race / Shape of Water and Wonderstruck Views / Foreign Language Field Is Set

Welcome back from the weekend everyone...

REPRISING TFF #44

Was perusing Gary Meyer's Eat, Drink Films website over the weekend and discovered a fine wrap-up of this year's Telluride Film Festival from Risa Nye.  I have linked it here.

Risa hits many of the highlights of the weekend and specifically talks Downsizing, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Darkest Hour, Lean on Pete, Lady Bird, Jamaica Man, The Rider, Hostiles, Love Cecil, An Inconvenient Sequel, Wonderstruck, The Cotton Club Encore and Battle of the Sexes.


STONE'S TAKE ON THE OSCAR RACE

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone updates her Oscar prediction every Friday so I thought I'd take a look at last Friday's list and sort of get a feel for where this year's Telluride crop might be headed.  I t should be noted that Stone doesn't list all 24 categories as yet but does mention 14 of them.

Currently she has Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water leading the way with 10 nominations each.

She has Darkest Hour with:  Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.

The Shape of Water would have these nominations: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird would land three nominations: Picture, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Battle of the Sexes gets a nomination for Emma Stone for Best Actress.

Hostiles gets a nomination for Adapted Screenplay as does Wonderstruck.

Faces/Places gets nominated for Documentary Feature.

Loving Vincent gets a nom for Animated Feature.

She also lists "Contenders", films/performers that she doesn't currently list as nominees but which could get in. 

That potential exists for other nominations for:

The Shape of Water: Supporting Actor (Shannon)

Lady Bird: Direction, Actress

Battle of the Sexes: Picture, Direction

Hostiles: Picture

Wonderstruck: Picture, Direction

Downsizing: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool: Actress

The complete "Awards Daily Predictions Friday" post is here.
 

SHAPE OF WATER AND WONDERSTRUCK

We got a new "inside look" at Del Toro's The Shape of Water this weekend from SlashFilm.  The story and the video are both here.

Additionally, we also got a new clip from Todd Haynes Wonderstruck that runs just over four minutes.  The new clip is below from YouTube:

The Shape of Water opens on Dec. 8 and Wonderstruck opens on Oct. 20.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILED OS SET

The deadline has passed for the submission of films for consideration for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.  The Playlist reports that a record 92 nations submitted films for consideration.  

Among them are five films that played as a part of the TFF #44 lineup:

First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)

A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Foxtrot (Israel)

The Insult (Lebanon)

Loveless (Russia)

The complete list and The Playlist story are here.

That's your MTFB for this Monday...more on Thursday.

 EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Foreign Language Field Grows / Views of Downsizing and First They Killed My Father / Lady Bird Flies a Little Earlier / More Harry Dean Stanton Goodness / Hostiles: Still No Distrib But a Trip to Rome

Good Thursday Film Fans...



FOREIGN LANGUAGE FIELD GROWS

Thus week Russia announced that its official entrant into Oscar's Best Foreign Language race will be Andrey Zvyaginstev's Loveless.  The choice is a, perhaps, a bit of a surprise because the film, as was Zyvaginstev's previous Oscar nominated Leviathan, offers a critique of modern day Russia.

The film had a great response at Cannes and Telluride did nothing to diminish that.  Loveless will screen at the London, Hampton and Mill Valley Film Fests soon.
 
Other TFF #44 films in announced for the FLF race:

Cambodia: First They Killed More Father
Chile: A Fantastic Woman
Israel: Foxtrot
Lebanon: The Insult

Other non-TFF #44 films of note announced:

Austria: Happy End
France: BPM
Poland: Spoor
Sweden: The Square


Details and a complete list can be found here from Awards Watch.


VIEWS OF DOWNSIZING AND FIRST THEY KILLED MY FATHER

This week we were treated to a new clip from Alexander Payne's Downsizing and a new trailer for Angelina Jolie's Oscar Foreign Language contender First They Killed My Father.

Downsizing is set to open in the U.S. on Dec. 22nd:

Meanwhile, First They Killed My Father has begun screening on Netflix on Sept. 15th.  The film was theatrically released as well:

Both videos are posted via YouTube.


LADY BIRD FLIES A WEEK EARLIER

A24 has announced that they are moving the initial limited release of Greta Gerwig's Telluride smash, Lady Bird up a week to Nov. 10th.  The film had been set for Nov. 17th and will go wider that weekend and even wider as Thanksgiving weekend.

Details and the story are here from Deadline.com.



MORE HARRY DEAN STANTON GOODNESS

The MTFB push to get Harry Dean Stanton into the awards conversation for his final film, Lucky continues today with a couple of articles from this week.  The film opens tomorrow in limited release in New York and Los Angeles.

First, The Hollywood Reporter had this story this week that focused on a gathering of a number of his close friends in Stanton's s favorite L.A. watering hole.

And Variety filed this report with the cast and crew of Lucky celebrating the L.A. premiere of the film.


HOSTILES: STILL NO DISTRIBUTOR BUT A TRIP TO ROME

As of my typing this on Thursday morning Scott Cooper's Hostiles is still without a distributor.  The name Netflix keeps buzzing about but there's nothing solid.  Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter says that the film will open the Rome Film Fest on Oct. 26th.

That report is here.


Last note for the day is that we are expecting a Darkest Hour trailer later today.  I'll be looking for that.


Until Monday, my friends...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride History Book: TFF #19 / More on Harry Dean Stanton / Cambodia Choses Jolie's Film, Israel Will Foxtrot / Trouble in Iran

Hello to all on this Thursday...


TELLURIDE HISTORY BOOK: TFF #19-1992

My retrospective of the history of Telluride Film Festival continues today as I resume after a six week hiatus with a look at the 19th TFF.  Now that TFF #44 has concluded, I'll get back to this project with the hope that I can conclude it episodically between now and the Oscar ceremony on Mar. 4th.

Here's a look at TFF #19:

Guest Direct: C. Cabrera Infante

Tributes: Harvey Keitel, Elmer Bernstein, Cy Endfield

SHOWS:

Bad Lieutenant
The Chosen One
Close to Eden
The Cranes Are Flying
The Crying Game
The Donner Party
El Mariachi
Feed
The Firm
From Hollywood to Hanoi
The Godless Girl
Homeland
I Am Cuba
I Want to See Angels
La Virgen de la Caridad
Laughter
Leolo
Lessons of the Darkness
The Letter That Was Never Sent
Life in Shadows
The Long Day Closes
The Loveless
Made in Britain
The Magnificent Seven
Momento Mori
Nail in the Boot
The Oak
Olivier Olivier
Peter's Friends
Reservoir Dogs
Road
The Sound of Fury
Strictly Ballroom
Tous Les Matins Du Monde
Victim of Sin
Visions of Light


Guests:

Kathryn Bigelow
Werner Herzog
Chuck Jones
Michael Moore
Gary Oldman
Robert Rodriguez
Tim Roth

1992's lineup seems amazing to me as it included: Reservoir Dogs, The Crying Game, Bad Lieutenant, El Mariachi and Strictly Ballroom.  Mike Leigh also had his short film A Sense of History at the fest.


MORE ON HARRY DEAN STANTON

I wrote in Monday's post about the loss of the great Harry Dean Stanton.  Yes...I am the one man campaign for a Best Actor nomination for him this year for Lucky.

But I also pointed out that I wasn't certain that Stanton was in Telluride for the screening of Wim Wenders' Paris, Texas in 1984.  I couldn't confirm or deny based on the official program from that year.  I asked for further information from MTFB readers and my request was rewarded.

Long time Telluride Film Festival staffer Jim Bedford confirmed via email that Stanton was, in fact, in Telluride in 1984.  From Jim's email:

From 1973-1983 I ran the Sheridan Opera House for Bill Pence's small chain of Denver and ski town theatres. In the early years Bill would do the programming from Denver and give us three-month schedules with three films a week, two for three days each and an art film on Wed only. Anything that worked would be brought back (think THE KING OF HEARTS, CHINATOWN, MCCABE, etc.) for rep runs. Boy, did I see a bunch of great movies during those years.

In 1975 we showed RANCHO DELUXE which our Telluride audience fell in love with and my love of Harry Dean Stanton (which was reinforced by Stella Pence, who was also a fan) continued from that time on. My guess is that we showed RANCHO at least a half dozen times over those years and it never failed to draw a quite pleased audience. Our little town embraced this film's quirky ethic, great one-liners and indelible characters (including clearly HDS).

In 1981 when Bill, Stella, Tom Luddy and Bill Everson did the second year of the Santa Fe Film Festival as a tribute to the Western Film and I convinced Bill that RANCHO was a Modern Western, a perfect foil for the real end of the Old West (sort of an anti-THE WILD BUNCH). It was included in the program and I got to present it at the Lensic Theatre and give Santa Fe Festival sterling silver belt buckles to Tom McGuane and Harry Dean on stage (pictures are available).

Two years later at the TFF, HDS was certainly in town for PARIS, TEXAS. Bill had also scheduled a by-then out-of-circulation REPO MAN in 16mm in the Community Center (it had premiered  in Berlin earlier that winter and died after a short March release). (Meanwhile, the TFF early arrival staff had screened REPO MAN on 16mm on the TFF office wall two weeks before so we were all nuts about it already.)

It was my job to get Harry Dean from the New Sheridan Hotel to the CC for the screening so I picked him up and we walked up the hill while I think he smoked 2-3 cigs on the way. It was a packed show at the CC that included Roger Ebert. After the screening Roger talked to HDS and later that week gave REPO MAN (which he had not seen or reviewed yet) a 3.5 star review. Universal then gave the film another release and the rest is history; REPO MAN became one of the great Cult Films from then on.

(PARIS, TEXAS wasn't bad either. I got to watch its premiere sitting on the SOH floor and then watch Wim Wenders take the stage after the film joined by Kit Carson, Hunter Carson, Nastassja Kinski, Dean Stockwell [a surprise visitor up from Santa Fe], and of course, Harry Dean.) 

Jim also kindly included two photos.  A still of Stanton from Telluride as well as one from the ceremony at the 1981 Santa Fe Fest:

CAMBODIA CHOOSES JOLIE'S FILM, ISRAEL WILL FOXTROT

Since my last post on Monday there have been some moves from various nations to put forth their films for consideration for the Foreign Language Film Oscar.  Cambodia jolted the race and the calculations with regard to nominations by announcing that their choice is Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father.

Jolie holds citizenship in Cambodia.

The film ranked # 10 on MTFB's Composite Ratings of Telluride films with a decent 7.05 combined rating.

Coverage is here from:

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter and

Deadline

Meanwhile, Israel's Ophir Awards have determined that Foxtrot will be their entry in the FLF Oscar sweepstakes.  The Samuel Maoz directed film dominated the Israeli "Oscars" winning 8.

Coverage from Variety.


TROUBLE IN IRAN

Though it didn't receive enough ratings from wither the Pros or the People to establish a rating last week, Mohammad Rasoulof's A Man of Integrity seemed to be well received by the TFF patrons that I ran into and that had seen it.  The film also won the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes last May.

Rasoulof was detained by Iranian authorities this past week as he returned to Iran from Telluride.  The film maker had to surrender his passport and has been ordered to court.

Here's the story from The Hollywood Reporter. 


That's your MTFB filing for Thursday, Sept. 21st.  I'll have more on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Professionals Telluride / It's Time for the Switch / Guillermo Wins Venice / Rate the FIlms of TFF #44

Good Monday to all...


THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

Here's is your 2017 installment of The Professionals view of the films that played the 44th Telluride Film Festival.  Ten industry journalists participated this year by rating each film they saw on a 0-5 scale.  They were:

Peter DeBruge/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Stephen Galloway/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit
Eric Kohn/Indiewire
Tomris Laffly/Film Journal
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Anonymous


15 films earned enough votes to make this year's poll of The Professionals.  The top rated film:  Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water with a 4.5 average.  Here's the complete list with their averaged rating:

1) The Shape of Water (4.5)
2) (Tie) Faces Places (4.25)
2) (Tie) Loveless (4.25)
2) (Tie) The Rider (4.25)
5) Lady Bird (4.20)
6) First Reformed (4.0)
7) Battle of the Sexes (3.95)
8) Darkest Hour (3.85)
9) Hostiles (3.79)
10) First They Killed My Father (3.78)
11) Loving Vincent (3.63)
12) Lean on Pete (3.50)
13) Wonderstruck (3.25)
14) Downsizing (3.10)
15) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (2.60)

Last year The Pros had Moonlight on top with a 4.87 average followed by La La Land at 4.58.
In 2015, the top film was Son of Saul at 4.44 with Anomalisa second with a 4.42.
In 2014, number one was Birdman at 4.72 and second was Foxcatcher at 4.63.
2013: 12 Years a Slave 4.70 and Blue is the Warmest Color 4.40
2012: Central Park Five 4.7 and Argo 4.5


I'll have The People's Telluride up on Thursday and the Composite Ratings of both Pros and Peeps next Monday.  Speaking of which...



IT'S TIME FOR THE SHIFT

Today marks the annual transition back to MTFBs "normal" publication schedule.  The blog will post twice a week, with rare exceptions, on Mondays and Thursdays.  Today also marks the turn toward this space becoming what I used to refer as The Film Awards Clearinghouse,  From now until Oscar night, I'll be focused most of the time on the awards prospects for the films that played as a part of the TFF #44 program.  You can always check here for the latest news about Oscar, Golden Globes, Critics awards as well as other precursors as we move through the awards season.


GUILLERMO WINS IN VENICE

The Venice Film Fest drew to a close this weekend and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water was named the best film in the competition section winning The Golden Lion.  Other TFF films got into the awards act as well in Italy with Foxtrot winning The Silver Lion.  Kamel El Basha won Best Actor for The Insult and Lean on Pete's Charlie Plummer was named best young actor.

Complete results of the awards at Venice are here from Alex Billington/FirstShowing.net.


That's a wrap for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday including The People's Telluride film ratings.  What did YOU think of the films that played?  YOU CAN STILL BE COUNTED BY RATING BEFORE 5:00PM TOMORROW.

 Send ratings in any of the following methids:


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