Showing posts with label Laurie Metcalf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Laurie Metcalf. Show all posts

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Early Oscar Predictions for Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Variety Assesses Oscar's Best Picture Nominees / Indiewire Talks to Sebastian Lelio

Welcome to February and Michael's Telluride Film Blog.

THE EARLY MTFB/FAC PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS



As we get down to just a month-ish left before the 90th Academy Awards, here's a look at where I think these four major categories are  at the moment.  I have the competitors ranked from most likely winner to least likely.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
5) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Big Sick
5) The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) Logan
5) The Disaster Artist

VARIETY ASSESSES OSCAR'S BEST PICTURE NOMINEES




In my last post I linked to an Indiewire analysis of each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees and their various pathways to a Best Picture win.  Today I'm passing along a Jenelle Riley piece from Variety that examines those nominees in much the same way.  Riley looks at each of the nominees advantages and challenges that they face over the next month.

That piece is linked here.


INDIEWIRE TALKS TO SEBASTIAN LELIO




Recently Indiewire's Eric Kohn sat down and interviewed Sebastian Lelio, the writer/director of the Oscar nominated foreign language film from Chile, A Fantastic Woman.  A Fantastic Woman played TFF #44 last Labor Day and it was the second film of Lelio's career that was featured at Telluride.  In 2013, his Gloria also made the TFF lineup.

A Fantastic Women also won three prizes at last year's Berlin International Film Festival.

Here is that interview from Indiewire.


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Monday, January 29, 2018

Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.


TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12



The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS



All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff


THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced.  The cover photo:




The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.



THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY



The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.


That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018.  I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!


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Thursday, January 25, 2018

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE



After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.


  OSCAR STATS



In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE



Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 15, 2018

The FAC Updates Oscar's Major Categories / The FAC Predicts Under the Line Categories

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope you had a good one.


THE FAC UPDATES OSCAR'S MAJOR CATEGORIES



With less than ten days left before scar announces its nominees, here are updated predictions in each of the eight "major" categories.  If you don't think Golden Globe results don't alter the perception of the race...maybe re-think.  As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE



The last update was on Best Picture was on Dec. 18th and it looked like this:

1) Lady Bird
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) The Post
5) Dunkirk
6) The Shape of Water
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: Mudbound, Darkest Hour, The Big Sick

And today's update:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) The Shape of Water
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) The Post
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Florida Project

Others: The Big Sick, Darkest Hour, I Tonya


BEST DIRECTION

Last post:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Steven Spielberg/The Post
4) Jordan Peele/Get Out
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name, Dee Rees/Mudbound

Today's update:

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Get Out/Jordan Peele
4) Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
5) Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name


BEST ACTRESS

Last update was:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water

Others: Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes


And today's update:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Others: Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World


BEST ACTOR



As of the last update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
4) Daniel Day Lewis-Phantom Thread
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Tom Hanks/The Post, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq., Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


And today's update:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) James Franco/The Disaster Artist
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



From the Jan. 1st update:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing



Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.


And the newest FAC says:

1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Jan. 1st line:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


And today's updated line:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
4) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

From the last update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck


And today's update says:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



The last posted predictions were:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water



Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya


And today's updated list is:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Shape of Water
5) The Big Sick

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I Tonya




THE FAC PREDICTS "UNDER THE LINE" CATEGORIES

10 "under the line categories".

As always, TFF #44 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Blade Runner 2049
2) Dunkirk
3) The Shape of Water
4) Mudbound
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, Three Billboards, Call Me By Your Name

FILM EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Three Billboards
5) The Post

Others: Baby Driver, Lady Bird, I, Tonya


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUMES

1) Phantom Thread
2) Beauty and the Beast
3) The Shape of Water
4) Victoria and Abdul
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman


MAKEUP AND HAIR



1) Darkest Hour
2) Wonder
3) I, Tonya

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Dunkirk
3) The Post
4) Phantom Thread
5) Darkest Hour

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards


ORIGINAL SONG

1) Remember Me/Coco
2) Stand Up for Something/Marshall
3) This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
4) The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries for Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) War for the Planet of the Apes
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Last Jedi
4) Dunkirk
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) Baby Driver
4) The Last Jedi
5) The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman. Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes


SOUND MIXING

1) Dunkirk
2) Blade Runner 2049
3) The Shape of Water 
4) The Last Jedi
5) Baby Driver

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes


If the FAC is 100% accurate TFF #44 films would earn 25 nominations from these 18 categories.

The Shape of Water-13
Darkest Hour-6
Lady Bird-5
Downsizing-1

On Thursday, I'll take a look at the remaining 6 categories: FOreign Language, Animated Feature, Doc Feature and the three Shorts categories.


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Sunday, January 7, 2018

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

SUNDAY SPECIAL: GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS




Welcome to a special additional post to MTFB.  I've put together a set of predictions today for tonight's Golden Globes ceremony from a bunch of the best people in the film awards business.  We'll see how this all pans out tonight.  TFF #44 films are Bold.

Kristopher Tapley/Variety/InContention

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Tapley's complete article is here.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily (and AD's Oscar Squad)

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Mighty River/Mudbound

Stone's complete article is here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Best Picture-Drama- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Feinberg's complete article is here.

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me/Coco

Thompson's complete article is here.

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Three Billboards
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-Remember Me Coco

Anderson's complete article is here.

Steve Pond/The Wrap

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Get Out
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-The Square
Best Original Score-The Shape of Water
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Pond's complete article is here.


Greg Ellwood/Awards Campaign/The Playlist

Best Picture-Drama-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Best Actor-Drama-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Dunkirk
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Ellwood's complete article is here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Best Picture-Drama-The Shape of Water
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy-Lady Bird
Best Direction-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Drama-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy-Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Best Actor-Drama-Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy-James Franco/The Disaster Artist
Best Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor-Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Screenplay-Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature-Coco
Best Foreign Language Film-A Fantastic Woman
Best Original Score-Phantom Thread
Best Song-This Is Me/The Greatest Showman

Davis' complete article is here.

Here's the consensus of these eight experts with the number predicting each winner in parentheses:

Best Picture-Drama: The Shape of Water (6), Three Billboards (2)
Best Picture-Musical or Comedy: Lady Bird (6), Get Out (2)
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water (8)
Best Actress-Drama: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards (5), Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water (3)
Best Actress-Musical or Comedy: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird (5), Margot Robbie/I, Tonya (2), Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul (1)
Best Actor-Drama: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (4), Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name (3), Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread (1)
Best Actor-Musical or Comedy: James Franco/The Disaster Artist (8)
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney/I, Tonya (4), Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird (4)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World (3), Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards (3), Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project (2)
Best Screenplay: Lady Bird (5), Three Billboards (3)
Best Animated Feature: Coco (8)
Best Foreign Language Film: First They Killed My Father (4), A Fantastic Woman (2), The Square (2)
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water (4), Dunkirk (3), Phantom Thread (1)
Best Song: This is Me/The Greatest Showman (4), Remember Me/Coco (2), Mighty River/Mudbound (2)

The experts predict Telluride 2017 films to win anywhere between 3 (Feinberg) to 8 (Stone) Globes.  It is possible for TFF #44 films to win in every category except Original Song.

I'll be tweeting (or re-tweeting) results tonight during the Globe broadcast (on Twitter @Gort2).  I'll also have a full rundown of the Globe results tomorrow morning.


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Monday, January 1, 2018

The FAC Updated Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Telluride Time Tunnel-Re-visiting TFF #13 / RT's Top 100 Films of 2017

HAPPY NEW 2018!


Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC).



THE FAC UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Taking a look today at four categories to update them as we begin the new year.  Also a mention that the Golden Globe Awards are less than a week away.  They'll be announced on Sunday, Jan. 7th.

As always, the films/performers from TFF #44 films are indicated with Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



The Supporting races were last predicted in this space on Dec. 4th.  In that post the Supporting Actress race looked like this :

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate


Four weeks later, here's where we stand:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

Comment:  Blige has really seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.  The top spot is still very tight but Metcalf seems to have the edge at the moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



From a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


The updated predictions:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:  Nice surges for Jenkins and Harrelson.  Dafoe looks like the solid favorite to win at this point.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY



The screenplay categories are being updated for the first time since Nov. 9th...

Here's what was out front nearly two months back:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman

And today's update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

Comment:  A very stable category for the last two months.  The fifth spot is a toss up.  The top four seem to be in good shape.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



From Nov. 9th:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya


And the new FAC prediction says:

1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Post
5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

Comment: Phantom Thread supplants Darkest Hour in the conversation for the last spot.


TELLURIDE TIME TUNNEL-RE-VISITING TFF #13



MTFB continues its months long review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. 

You may recall that I started this project back on April 13, 2017.  The goal here is to provide a place on the interwebs where someone could get a relatively complete look at what played at each Telluride Film Fest (in as far as feature films are concerned) since its inception.

As I have written on a couple of occasions, the current official Telluride Film Festival website has links to the programs for fests from 2006 to last year's program.  Prior to 2006, I am unaware of any other collection of data for TFF online.  This is an attempt to provide that.

So, we pick up where we left off with a look at the films and personalities of TFF #13.  The 13th Telluride Film Festival took place  from Aug. 29-September 1, 1986.

Tributes: Alexander Mackendrick, Jiri Menzel and Isabelle Huppert.

Also of note, a retrospective of the films of Anthony Mann labeled Mann of the West that featured the one and only Jimmy Stewart in person.

SHOWS:

The Biscuit Eater
Blue Velvet
Cactus
Closely Watched Trains
The Decline of the American Empire
Devil in the Flesh
Document: Fanny and Alexander
Eat the Peach
Eraserhead
The Gay Desperado
The Interrogation
The Lacemaker
The Ladykillers
A Lonely Woman
Los Inundados
The Man form Laramie
Mother Teresa
My Little Village
No End
The River's Edge
The Sacrifice
Sacrificed Youth
Seize the Day
Smasher
The Sweet Smell of Success
Therese
Tire Die
Too Far to Go
We Are the Living
Winchester 73
The Witch
Working Girls


Guests:

Denys Arcand
Laura Dern
Crispin Glover
Agnieszka Holland
Chuck Jones
David Lynch
Kyle MacLachlan
Anne Meara
Jerry Stiller
James Stewart
Robin Williams


I'm trying to imagine a weekend where I might have seen James Stewart, Robin Williams and David Lynch around town and also have caught screenings of Blue Velvet, The River's Edge, Winchester 73 and The Sweet Smell of Success.


RT'S TOP 100 FILMS OF 2017



Rotten Tomatoes has released its list of the top 100 films rated on their site for 2017.  The list includes a number of titles from both TFF #44 as well as TFF #43.

Those from TFF #44 making the grade are:

#91-The Other Side of Hope
#68-Human Flow
#67-Battle of the Sexes
#26-Faces Places
#20-The Shape of Water
#5-Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out is rated as the top film by RT for 2017.

TFF #43 films that made the RT Top 100 are:

#97-Maudie
#81-Frantz
#64-I Called Him Morgan
#61-The B-Side:Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
#44-Graduation
#35-Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds

The complete RT Top 100 list is linked here.




That's your first MTFB for 2018.  There will probably be more. Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, December 21, 2017

End of Year Critics Lists / Darkest Hour Short Listed for Makeup and Hair / Morris on Wormwood

Welcome to the Monkey House as Kurt Vonnegut said...


END OF YEAR CRITICS LISTS



Both Indiewire and Metacritic this week have posted stories with accumulated data from multiple critics.  Here's your review of where TFF #44 films ended up on those lists.

Beginning with Indiewire's poll of over 200 critics.

Best Film: #2-Lady Bird, #6-The Shape of Water (Jordan Peele's Get Out edged out Lady Bird for the top spot)
Director: #3-Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Best Actress: #1-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird, #4-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Best Actor: #5-Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Supporting Actress- #1-Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird
Documentary- #1-Faces/Places
Foreign Language Film: #2 Faces/Places
Cinematography- #4 The Shape of Water
Animated Feature- #3 Loving Vincent
Best Films of 2018 That Have Already Been Seen: #2-The Rider, #3-First Reformed, #5-Lean on Pete

The complete story from Indie wire is here.


Metacritic posted two different stories.  The first focused on collating end of the year critics groups accolades, the other collated critics year end top ten lists.

From the collation of critics awards highlighted TFF #44 films as follows:

Top Ten Films:

#2 The Shape of Water
#4 Lady Bird

Director: #1-Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water, #3- Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
Actor- #1 Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Actress- #2-Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water, #3-Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Supporting Actor- #3-Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
Supporting Actress- #1- Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Screenplay- #2-Lady Bird, #7- The Shape of Water
Cinematography- #3-The Shape of Water
Film Editing- #3-The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film- #3 First They Killed My Father
Documentary- #2- Faces/Places
Animated Feature- #2- Loving Vincent

The complete rundown from Metacritic is here.

Metacritic's compilation of critical ratings of top ten lists for 2017 films came down with these TFF #44 films in the Top 20:

#2- Lady Bird
#7-The Shape of Water
#10- Faces/Places

The complete list plus the top tens from critics are here.


DARKEST HOUR SHORT LISTED




Seven films have been short listed by AMPAS for the Makeup/Hair Oscar.  That list will be whittled to three by Oscar nomination announcement morning.

TFF #44's Darkest Hour was short listed for turning Gary Oldman into the physical presence of Winston Churchill.

Indiewire has that story here.


MORRIS ON WORMWOOD



Errol Morris spoke recently with Variety about his multi-part CIA docudrama Wormwood which bowed over Labor Day weekend at Telluride.  Wormwood is now available for streaming on Netflix.

The Variety interview is accessible here.


That's all for today.  I'll have a short post on Christmas morning and be back to business as usual next Thursday.

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Monday, December 4, 2017

The FAC Updates Supporting Categories / NY Loves Lady Bird and LA Loves Name and Shape / The Week and a Half Ahead / Profile and Interview Grab Bag

Hope everyone had a fine weekend...and welcome back to MTFB.


THE F(ilm) A(wards) C(learinghouse) UPDATES SUPPORTING CATEGORIES


Our last look at the Supporting Actress and Actor categories came back on Nov. 6th.  After a month of that has seen the actual beginnings of award frenzy, there has been some movement in those categories.

As always, films/performers from TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



Here's where the category stood a month ago:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


And here's today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Comment: Phantom Thread screenings have moved Manville into the convo (as well as the film and Daniel Day Lewis into stronger positions in the Best Picture and Actor categories.  Paul Thomas Anderson is also a serious player for Original Screenplay and possibly Director).  Scott Thomas falls out of immediate consideration which mirrors the general pull back from Darkest Hour that seems to have developed.  It's still regarded as a two pony race between Janney and Metcalf.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



The Best Supporting Actor race looked like this a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water


 Today's update looks like this:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


Comment: The top four stay solidly the same and, as with the women, the real race appears to be between the top two: Dafoe and Rockwell with everyone else jockeying for the "honor to be nominated" spots.  Michael Shannon's performance has lost forward momentum and that has boosted Rylance and Jenkins (who, of course, has been my personal choice on this category since seeing the film in Telluride over Labor Day).


NY LOVES LADY BIRD AND LA LOVES NAME AND SHAPE





The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2017 on Thursday with Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird winning the top honor as Best Film.  Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan was also honored as Best Actress.  The other TFF #44 film named by the NYFCC was Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places as Best Non-fiction film.

Other key winners were:

Direction: Sean Baker/The Florida Project
Actor: Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish/Girl's Trip
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile, yesterday, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named their film superlatives for 2017 which was dominated by Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.

TFF #44 recognition from the LAFCA was spearheaded by the three awards that Shape of Water received: Best Direction for Del Toro (in a tie with Guadagnino), Best Actress for Sally Hawkins and Best Cinematography.  It was also runner-up for Production Design and Score.

Other TFF #44 winners were Laurie Metcalf as Best Supporting Actress for her role in Lady Bird, Agnes Varda and JR's documentary Faces Places and Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless which tied with BPM for Best Foreign Language Film.

The L.A. critics also recognized Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig with their New Generation Award.

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says that Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird might be the Oscar frontrunner right now.  I'm  not all the way there yet.  I still think that if I were a betting fellow that the best bet is still Chris Nolan's Dunkirk.  That said, I have been suggesting for almost a month now that I do think the preferential ballot maybe does boost Lady Bird and Sasha is way smarter and more experienced than most of the planet about Oscar.

Call Me By Your Name was recognized as Best Film (The Florida Project was named runner-up) along with recognition for Timothee Chalamet as Best Actor and the nod for Guadagnino's direction.

Coverage of the LAFCA awards is here from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly


THE WEEK AND A HALF AHEAD



Today's post continues its theme of focusing on the awards season as I turn to Sasha Stone's/Awards Daily's weekend post that identifies all of the awards dates/deadlines that are looming over the next ten days or so.  Key organizations and the dates of their reveals are:

Dec. 6th-Critic's Choice Nominations are announced.
Dec. 7th-American Film Institute announce their films of the year.
Dec. 11th-Golden Globe nominations are announced.
Dec. 13th-SAG-AFTRA nominations are announced.

And after that we won't see any other major group announcements until after the first of the year.


PROFILE AND INTERVIEW GRAB BAG:



Here's a collection of interviews and profiles I've collected the past few days about films that appeared as a part of the program for the 2017 edition of The SHOW:

Downsizing film editor Kevin Trent from VarietyAnd also from Awards Circuit.

Wonderstruck (and TFF #44 Tribute recipient) Director of Photography Ed Lachman from Deadline.

20+ images from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water from Entertainment Weekly.

Director Rebecca Miller on her doc Arthur Miller: Writer from Indiewire.

Darkest Hour score composer Dario Marianelli from Indiewire.



That's your wrap from MTFB for this Monday, Dec. 4th.  I'll be back with more on Thursday!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, November 13, 2017

New Red Band Trailer for The Shape of Water / Lady Bird In the Spotlight / The Early FAC for Foreign and Animated

It's Monday, Nov. 13th and November continues apace...


NEW TRAILER FOR THE SHAPE OF WATER


We have a new and final trailer for Guillermo Del Toro's "adult fairy take" The Shape of Water.  Fair warning, it is a Red Band trailer...




The Shape of Water stars Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Octavia Spencer and Michael Stuhlbarg.  It is set to open domestically on Dec. 8th.

Here's Indiewire's coverage of the trailers' release.



LADY BIRD IN THE SPOTLIGHT



The onslaught of publicity for Greta Gerwig's solo directing debut, Lady Bird, gained incredible momentum this week as a ton of film sources posted interviews and profiles with Gerwig and cast members including Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf.

Lady Bird continues to be a dark horse in as far as Oscar speculation goes.  Laurie Metcalf is generally agreed upon as a nearly certain nominee for Supporting Actress and possibly your winner (though Alison Janney is generally regarded as a co-front runner for her performance in I, Tonya).

Personally, I've been saying that Lady Bird could be a much more serious player for a couple of weeks now.  I'm thinking nominations for Metcalf, Ronan, Gerwig for Original Screenplay and Picture with Gerwig having an outside shot at Best Directing.

Just yesterday Sasha Stone of Awards Daily publically made the case I've been contemplating on her website.

Check out these posts from the past week:

Variety's Screening Series presented by Film Struck.

Indiewire's Kate Erbland with Saoirse Ronan.

The Hollywood Reporter's Mia Galuppo writing about Gerwig.

Indiewire's Jenna Marotta on Laurie Metcalf.

The Gold Derby talks with Gerwig and Ronan.


AN EARLY LOOK AT THE FAC FOR FOREIGN FILMS AND ANIMATED FEATURE

Here is the initial take of The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the Foreign Language Film  and Animated Feature categories.

As is my custom, TFF #44 films are Bold.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS



1) Loveless
2) First They Killed My Father
3) In the Fade
4) Foxtrot
5) A Fantastic Woman

Others: The Square, BPM, The Insult


ANIMATED FEATURE



1) Coco
2) The Breadwinner
3) Loving Vincent
4) The Lego Batman Movie
5) Ferdinand

Others; The Bass Baby, The Girl Without Hands, Cars 3


That's your wrap for this Monday.  More will appear here on Thursday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, November 6, 2017

FAC Oscar Predix: Supporting / New Trailer for Downsizing / Future Telluride: Mike Leigh's Peterloo / Interviews: Gerwig, Oldman, Jolie and Cooper

Monday, Monday...Nov. 6, 2017


FAC OSCAR PREDIX: SUPPORTING



Today's post begins with an update of the FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Predictions for nominations for the Supporting Acting categories.

Telluride films are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Last posted prediction for this category was Oct. 16th and it looked like this:



1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing

Today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR



From Oct. 16:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Today's update:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water



NEW TRAILER FOR DOWNSIZING

Paramount released a new trailer this week for Alexander Payne's Downsizing.  The film is slated to hot theaters on Dec. 22.  Here's the new trailer from YouTube:



I have also linked some coverage of the trailer's release from Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net.  That is linked here.



FUTURE TELLURIDE

Back in the Sept. 25th post I included a segment on possible future Telluride films called "Looking Ahead".  The list consisted of ten films (out of 56) that I have been tracking that still could, eventually, be in a TFF lineup.  One of the films that was not on that list of ten but is in the long list is Mike Leigh's Peterloo.

I mention this because Peterloo popped up this week with a "first look" still from the film:


It appears the thinking is that Leigh will have the film ready for Cannes.  Should that be true, I'd think it was a very solid choice to be at the top of the TFF #45 speculation list.  Leigh has had a significant history with Telluride.  Additionally, the film will be distributed by Amazon Studios which also does not hurt its T-ride chances.

Peterloo is based on the 1819 massacre of protesters in Manchester, England.  60,000 protesters were gathered seeking voting reform.  15 were killed.

Leigh's previous films at Telluride include: Mr. Turner, Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Here are a couple of stories about the photo and the film from Indiewire and from The Film Stage.


INTERVIEWS: GERWIG, OLDMAN, JOLIE AND COOPER




I have included here the link to a new Indiewire interview with Lady Bird director and writer Greta Gerwig.  The interview is with Anne Thompson.

 Also, The Deadline Contender series of interviews was rolled out this week and includes interviews with Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) , Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father) and Scott Cooper (Hostiles).





That's your MTFB for Monday, Nov. 6th.  There will be more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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