Oscar Race 2026-The Experts: The Contending / Best Picture Scorecard / NYFF Interviews for TFF Films / Visitations: Dickinson and Moura

 OSCAR RACE 2026-THE EXPERTS:THE CONTENDING

I'm beginning to close down my round-up of some of the Oscar prediction websites and their view of which films will be best picture nominated with a focus on what TFF #52 films are in play.  Today we look at Mark Johnson of The Contending.  Mark is also featured as an Oscar Expert for Gold Derby.  Here's how he is handicapping the nominations for BP.  (TFF #52 films are in Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Wicked: For Good

6) It Was Just an Accident

7) Marty Supreme

8) House of Dynamite

9) Jay Kelly

10) Bugonia

So Mark has five TFF films getting nominated which would be an all time record for number of TFF films nominated for BP in one year.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP) and The Contending (TC), here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Sentimental Value (7): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Jay Kelly (6): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NYFF INTERVIEWS FOR TFF FILMS

Via YouTube:

JAFAR PANAHI FOR IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT (Interviewed by Martin Scorsese)

JEREMY ALLEN WHITE AND SCOTT COOPER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

VISITATIONS:

Harris Dickinson for Urchin from Time.com

Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent from Anne Thompson of Indiewire

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

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The Professional's Telluride / Telluride Wins Toronto / Visitations: Cooper, Mescal, Harmanus / The People's Telluride-Final Call

THE PROFESSIONAL'S TELLURDE

They're back.  It's time to reveal the results of MTFB's annual poll of film industry professionals who agreed to rate the films on a 1-5 scale and allow me then to collate and average those scores.  The pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders.  To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.  That threshold allowed a dozen films to make the list.

Here are the Pros for TFF #52:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com

Josh Bis/Seattle Film Critics Society and TheSunBreak.com

Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Mark Johnson/The Awards Alchemist

Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies

Scott Kernan/Awards Daily

Tomris Laffly/Film Critic and Journalist

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch

Will Mavity/Next Best Picture

Clarence Moye/The Contending

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com

Chris Willman/Variety

Anonymous

And here are your Professionals average ratings:

1) Hamnet 4.64

2) Sentimental Value 4.49

3) It Was Just an Accident 4.35

4) Jay Kelly 4.01

5) The History of Sound 3.88

6) Nouvelle Vague 3.76

7) Blue Moon 3.69

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 3.50

9) Bugonia 3.48

10) Tuner 3.14

11) Ballad of a Small Player 2.89

12) Frankenstein 2.87

Just missing out on making the list because they were one pro shy of the threshold were The Secret Agent, La Grazia and A Private Life.

Historically, Hamnet's 4.64 will put it in the Professionals all time top ten at #7 and because there is a tie for the 10th spot, no film drops out of this top ten.

New all time PROs Top Ten Films

1) Moonlight (4.87) (16) (Won Best Picture)

2) Parasite (4.75) (19) (Won Best Picture)

3) Roma (4.73) (18) (Nominated Best Picture)

4) Birdman (4.72) (14) (Won Best Picture)

5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13) (Won Best Picture)

6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)

7) Hamnet (4.64) (25)

8) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)

9) La La Land (4.58) (16) (Nominated Best Picture)

10) Poor Things (4.53) (23) (Nominated Best Picture)

10) Anora (4.53) (24) (Won Best Picture)

TELLURIDE WINS TORONTO

The Toronto International Film festival's People's Choice Award for 2025 was won by Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein was second and Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man took third.

As you can see above, Hamnet scored well with the Professionals at Telluride and we'll reveal The People's Telluride results on Thursday.

VISITATIONS

Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere from Entertainment Weekly.

Paul Mescal and Oliver Hermanus for The History of Sound from Indiewire.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-FINAL CALL

This is the final call for film ratings from The People.  You folks who watched films at TFF #52.  The deadline to rate is 5:00pm PDT this evening.  Email them to me at mpgot@gmail.com.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

FAC Oscar Predix: Supporting / New Trailer for Downsizing / Future Telluride: Mike Leigh's Peterloo / Interviews: Gerwig, Oldman, Jolie and Cooper

Monday, Monday...Nov. 6, 2017


FAC OSCAR PREDIX: SUPPORTING

Today's post begins with an update of the FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Predictions for nominations for the Supporting Acting categories.

Telluride films are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Last posted prediction for this category was Oct. 16th and it looked like this:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing

Today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR

From Oct. 16:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Today's update:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water



NEW TRAILER FOR DOWNSIZING

Paramount released a new trailer this week for Alexander Payne's Downsizing.  The film is slated to hot theaters on Dec. 22.  Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

I have also linked some coverage of the trailer's release from Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net.  That is linked here.

FUTURE TELLURIDE

Back in the Sept. 25th post I included a segment on possible future Telluride films called "Looking Ahead".  The list consisted of ten films (out of 56) that I have been tracking that still could, eventually, be in a TFF lineup.  One of the films that was not on that list of ten but is in the long list is Mike Leigh's Peterloo.

I mention this because Peterloo popped up this week with a "first look" still from the film:

It appears the thinking is that Leigh will have the film ready for Cannes.  Should that be true, I'd think it was a very solid choice to be at the top of the TFF #45 speculation list.  Leigh has had a significant history with Telluride.  Additionally, the film will be distributed by Amazon Studios which also does not hurt its T-ride chances.

Peterloo is based on the 1819 massacre of protesters in Manchester, England.  60,000 protesters were gathered seeking voting reform.  15 were killed.

Leigh's previous films at Telluride include: Mr. Turner, Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Here are a couple of stories about the photo and the film from Indiewire and from The Film Stage.

INTERVIEWS: GERWIG, OLDMAN, JOLIE AND COOPER

I have included here the link to a new Indiewire interview with Lady Bird director and writer Greta Gerwig.  The interview is with Anne Thompson.

 Also, The Deadline Contender series of interviews was rolled out this week and includes interviews with Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) , Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father) and Scott Cooper (Hostiles).

The Oldman (with Joe Wright as well) interview is here conducted by Pete Hammond.

Jolie and her subject, Luong Ung are interviewed here.

Cooper (along with actors Wes Studi and Q'orianka Kilcher) is interviewed here.

That's your MTFB for Monday, Nov. 6th.  There will be more on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

FACEBOOK Message me on FB MTFB's Facebook Page


COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Byron Allen Gets Friendly With Hostiles / The Stanton Oscar Express Making Headway? / New Poster for Film Stars / First Reformed Added to NYFF

Welcome to the first Thursday in October...


BYRON ALLEN GETS FRIENDLY WITH HOSTILES

After having premiered at Telluride and playing Toronto and being announced as the opening film for the Rome Film Fest, Scott Cooper's Hostiles has finally gained distribution.

The news was revealed Tuesday that Byron Allen's fledgling Entertainment Studios.  Reports suggested that plans for the film will include an Oscar qualifying release before the end of the year and a wider release in January.

Those plans mean that Christian Bale and Rosamund Pike are probably both part of the awards conversation for acting honors and that the film could be a player in the Best Picture, Direction and Screenplay categories as well.

The film was received in a generally positive way at both Telluride and Toronto especially Bale for his portrayal of a 19th century U.S. Army Captain charged with escorting a Native American Chief (Wes Studi) to Montana from New Mexico.  The film  currently has a 67 on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 from Metacritic.

Further coverage is here from:

Variety

Indiewire



THE STANTON OSCAR EXPRESS MAKING HEADWAY?


FOr those that have been following along, the Harry Dean Stanton for Best Actor Oscar campaign may have gotten a boost this week as Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporters chief awards writer, included Stanton in his latest Feinberg Forecast,

Feinberg, doing an update of FF at the halfway mark of the New York Film Festival lists HDS as a "New" entrant on the race as a part pf a group he labels as "Major Threats".  That puts the late Stanton in Feinberg's top 12 for Oscar Best Actor.

The complete and updated version of The Feinberg Forecast is here



.NEW POSTER FOR FILM STARS


Paul McGuigan's Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool starring Annette Bening as film star Gloria Grahame and Jamie Bell has a new poster as it moves towards its Dec. 29th limited release date in the U.S..  The film is under the umbrella of Sony Pictures Classics. and in addition to having premiered at Telluride played Toronto and will play London, Mill Valley and Middleburg.

Check the new poster:

Also take a look at the story from The Express (UK).


FIRST REFORMED ADDED TO NYFF

A24 announced earlier this week that Paul Schrader's First Reformed has been added to the lineup of the on-going New York Film Festival.  The film played Telluride, Venice and Toronto.  The film stars Ethan Hawke and Amanda Seyfried.

It is scheduled to screen tomorrow evening at 6:00pm in Alice Tully Hall.  A release date has not yet been set.

Here's the rundown from NYFF.

"Hateful Eight" is a Dish Served Cold...Really Cold and Other "Hateful" News/"Black Mass" Poster and Pics/"Suffragette" Musings

Hoo-dee-hoo on a Tuesday...


"HATEFUL EIGHT" IS A DISH SERVED COLD...REALLY COLD AND OTHER "HATEFUL" NEWS

Samuel L. Jackson told the world last week that Quentin Tarantino kept his "Hateful Eight" set chill...very chill.  Jackson was quoted as saying that the set was refrigerated to create and keep the reality of the freezing, snowy conditions.  Check the story here from Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/samuel-l-jackson-reveals-hateful-eight-shot-refrigerated-set/

We still wish that we'd see it on Labor Day weekend...but doubt that will happen.

In other "Hateful" news, Rope of silicon was reporting yesterday that Tarantino is going to aid in the retro-fitting of up to 50 screens nationwide to be able to screen the new film in the 70mm format that he's shot it in.  I'd also point out that T-ride has the capability to screen in 70 mm.

Here's the story from ROS:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/tarantino-rumored-to-be-retrofitting-50-theaters-with-70mm-projection-for-hateful-eight-release/



"BLACK MASS" POSTER AND PICS

"Black Mass" poster

Scott Cooper's "Black Mass", the story of gangster Whitey Bulger played by Johnny Depp remains one of four films from Warners that are on my watch list for T-ride '15.  The others: "In the Heart of the Sea", "Our Brand is Crisis" and "Midnight Special".  

The film dropped what was described by The Playlist as a teaser poster, which you see above.

Take a look at the new pics from the film that are also included as a part of The Playlist's post from yesterday:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-johnny-depp-turns-cold-blooded-mob-boss-in-the-new-trailer-for-crime-drama-black-mass-20150522

"SUFFRAGETTE" MUSINGS

"Suffragette" trailer via YouTube

I keep coming back to the London Film Festival announcement form last week that Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette" will open the BFI LFF in early October and their listing of the film as its "European" premiere. (MTFB-June 4)

As Anne Thompson mentioned in her "Screen Talk" podcast that I linked here yesterday...the "European" designation means that the film will have played somewhere in North America before LFF.  As others noted in the analysis of the original announcement, that also means that it will not have played Venice.

I think the key to parsing this out is whether or not the LFF announcement and its designating the film as an "European" premiere means that it is NOT the film's "International" premiere.  If LFF is designating it as "European" as opposed to "International" because they wish to be specific in terms of that designation, then I believe the chances that "Suffragette" plays Telluride go way up. If the choice to designate as "European" makes this distinction, then it likely means that the film will have played Toronto and either New York or T-ride (or both).  In the scenario of choosing one over the other, Telluride may have the upper hand.

If, on the other hand,  it is NOT an LFF distinction of any real consequence, then the odds for "Suffragette" in the San Juans remain moderate at best.  Of course, there's no way (at least that I have found yet) to determine whether LFF officials made this calculation when they announced the film as a "European" premiere last week,

Something to think about, though...


More on Wednesday...


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