Showing posts with label Octavia Spencer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Octavia Spencer. Show all posts

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Early Oscar Predictions for Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Variety Assesses Oscar's Best Picture Nominees / Indiewire Talks to Sebastian Lelio

Welcome to February and Michael's Telluride Film Blog.

THE EARLY MTFB/FAC PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS



As we get down to just a month-ish left before the 90th Academy Awards, here's a look at where I think these four major categories are  at the moment.  I have the competitors ranked from most likely winner to least likely.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



1) Allison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World
5) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY



1) Three Billboards
2) Get Out
3) Lady Bird
4) The Big Sick
5) The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Molly's Game
3) Mudbound
4) Logan
5) The Disaster Artist

VARIETY ASSESSES OSCAR'S BEST PICTURE NOMINEES




In my last post I linked to an Indiewire analysis of each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees and their various pathways to a Best Picture win.  Today I'm passing along a Jenelle Riley piece from Variety that examines those nominees in much the same way.  Riley looks at each of the nominees advantages and challenges that they face over the next month.

That piece is linked here.


INDIEWIRE TALKS TO SEBASTIAN LELIO




Recently Indiewire's Eric Kohn sat down and interviewed Sebastian Lelio, the writer/director of the Oscar nominated foreign language film from Chile, A Fantastic Woman.  A Fantastic Woman played TFF #44 last Labor Day and it was the second film of Lelio's career that was featured at Telluride.  In 2013, his Gloria also made the TFF lineup.

A Fantastic Women also won three prizes at last year's Berlin International Film Festival.

Here is that interview from Indiewire.


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Thursday, January 25, 2018

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.


OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE



After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations.  That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film
The Insult-Foreign Language Film
Loveless- Foreign Language Film
Loving Vincent-Animated Feature
Faces Places-Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC. 

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor.  Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction.  Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot.  My worst...missing Meryl Streep.  Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.


  OSCAR STATS



In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.


GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE



Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2.  Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water.  Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.


That's your Thursday for MTFB.  I'll have more for you on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

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Monday, December 4, 2017

The FAC Updates Supporting Categories / NY Loves Lady Bird and LA Loves Name and Shape / The Week and a Half Ahead / Profile and Interview Grab Bag

Hope everyone had a fine weekend...and welcome back to MTFB.


THE F(ilm) A(wards) C(learinghouse) UPDATES SUPPORTING CATEGORIES


Our last look at the Supporting Actress and Actor categories came back on Nov. 6th.  After a month of that has seen the actual beginnings of award frenzy, there has been some movement in those categories.

As always, films/performers from TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS



Here's where the category stood a month ago:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


And here's today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Comment: Phantom Thread screenings have moved Manville into the convo (as well as the film and Daniel Day Lewis into stronger positions in the Best Picture and Actor categories.  Paul Thomas Anderson is also a serious player for Original Screenplay and possibly Director).  Scott Thomas falls out of immediate consideration which mirrors the general pull back from Darkest Hour that seems to have developed.  It's still regarded as a two pony race between Janney and Metcalf.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



The Best Supporting Actor race looked like this a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water


 Today's update looks like this:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


Comment: The top four stay solidly the same and, as with the women, the real race appears to be between the top two: Dafoe and Rockwell with everyone else jockeying for the "honor to be nominated" spots.  Michael Shannon's performance has lost forward momentum and that has boosted Rylance and Jenkins (who, of course, has been my personal choice on this category since seeing the film in Telluride over Labor Day).


NY LOVES LADY BIRD AND LA LOVES NAME AND SHAPE





The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2017 on Thursday with Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird winning the top honor as Best Film.  Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan was also honored as Best Actress.  The other TFF #44 film named by the NYFCC was Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places as Best Non-fiction film.

Other key winners were:

Direction: Sean Baker/The Florida Project
Actor: Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish/Girl's Trip
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile, yesterday, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named their film superlatives for 2017 which was dominated by Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.

TFF #44 recognition from the LAFCA was spearheaded by the three awards that Shape of Water received: Best Direction for Del Toro (in a tie with Guadagnino), Best Actress for Sally Hawkins and Best Cinematography.  It was also runner-up for Production Design and Score.

Other TFF #44 winners were Laurie Metcalf as Best Supporting Actress for her role in Lady Bird, Agnes Varda and JR's documentary Faces Places and Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless which tied with BPM for Best Foreign Language Film.

The L.A. critics also recognized Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig with their New Generation Award.

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says that Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird might be the Oscar frontrunner right now.  I'm  not all the way there yet.  I still think that if I were a betting fellow that the best bet is still Chris Nolan's Dunkirk.  That said, I have been suggesting for almost a month now that I do think the preferential ballot maybe does boost Lady Bird and Sasha is way smarter and more experienced than most of the planet about Oscar.

Call Me By Your Name was recognized as Best Film (The Florida Project was named runner-up) along with recognition for Timothee Chalamet as Best Actor and the nod for Guadagnino's direction.

Coverage of the LAFCA awards is here from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly


THE WEEK AND A HALF AHEAD



Today's post continues its theme of focusing on the awards season as I turn to Sasha Stone's/Awards Daily's weekend post that identifies all of the awards dates/deadlines that are looming over the next ten days or so.  Key organizations and the dates of their reveals are:

Dec. 6th-Critic's Choice Nominations are announced.
Dec. 7th-American Film Institute announce their films of the year.
Dec. 11th-Golden Globe nominations are announced.
Dec. 13th-SAG-AFTRA nominations are announced.

And after that we won't see any other major group announcements until after the first of the year.


PROFILE AND INTERVIEW GRAB BAG:



Here's a collection of interviews and profiles I've collected the past few days about films that appeared as a part of the program for the 2017 edition of The SHOW:

Downsizing film editor Kevin Trent from VarietyAnd also from Awards Circuit.

Wonderstruck (and TFF #44 Tribute recipient) Director of Photography Ed Lachman from Deadline.

20+ images from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water from Entertainment Weekly.

Director Rebecca Miller on her doc Arthur Miller: Writer from Indiewire.

Darkest Hour score composer Dario Marianelli from Indiewire.



That's your wrap from MTFB for this Monday, Dec. 4th.  I'll be back with more on Thursday!


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Monday, November 6, 2017

FAC Oscar Predix: Supporting / New Trailer for Downsizing / Future Telluride: Mike Leigh's Peterloo / Interviews: Gerwig, Oldman, Jolie and Cooper

Monday, Monday...Nov. 6, 2017


FAC OSCAR PREDIX: SUPPORTING



Today's post begins with an update of the FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Predictions for nominations for the Supporting Acting categories.

Telluride films are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Last posted prediction for this category was Oct. 16th and it looked like this:



1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing

Today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR



From Oct. 16:

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Today's update:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water



NEW TRAILER FOR DOWNSIZING

Paramount released a new trailer this week for Alexander Payne's Downsizing.  The film is slated to hot theaters on Dec. 22.  Here's the new trailer from YouTube:



I have also linked some coverage of the trailer's release from Alex Billington's FirstShowing.net.  That is linked here.



FUTURE TELLURIDE

Back in the Sept. 25th post I included a segment on possible future Telluride films called "Looking Ahead".  The list consisted of ten films (out of 56) that I have been tracking that still could, eventually, be in a TFF lineup.  One of the films that was not on that list of ten but is in the long list is Mike Leigh's Peterloo.

I mention this because Peterloo popped up this week with a "first look" still from the film:


It appears the thinking is that Leigh will have the film ready for Cannes.  Should that be true, I'd think it was a very solid choice to be at the top of the TFF #45 speculation list.  Leigh has had a significant history with Telluride.  Additionally, the film will be distributed by Amazon Studios which also does not hurt its T-ride chances.

Peterloo is based on the 1819 massacre of protesters in Manchester, England.  60,000 protesters were gathered seeking voting reform.  15 were killed.

Leigh's previous films at Telluride include: Mr. Turner, Another Year and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Here are a couple of stories about the photo and the film from Indiewire and from The Film Stage.


INTERVIEWS: GERWIG, OLDMAN, JOLIE AND COOPER




I have included here the link to a new Indiewire interview with Lady Bird director and writer Greta Gerwig.  The interview is with Anne Thompson.

 Also, The Deadline Contender series of interviews was rolled out this week and includes interviews with Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) , Angelina Jolie (First They Killed My Father) and Scott Cooper (Hostiles).





That's your MTFB for Monday, Nov. 6th.  There will be more on Thursday.


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Monday, October 16, 2017

Supporting Players Oscar Chances / Awards Daily's Latest Oscar Take / Weinstein Out of AMPAS

Welcome back from the weekend and to this Monday in October...


SUPPORTING PLAYERS OSCAR CHANCES



Since I got this year's FAC underway in last Thursday's post (with looks at the Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor categories), I thought I'd continue today with a review of where the Supporting Acting races look to stand at this point in mid-October.

Telluride #44 performances are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR



1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Adding the first two FACs of the season together, here's where TFF #44 films stand in terms of the six categories that get the most attention:

Darkest Hour- Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and also a possible shot at Supporting Actress.

The Shape of Water-Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actress and Supporting Actress.  The other possibility is Supporting Actor.

Lady Bird-One nomination and two potentials.  Nom: Supporting Actress.  Other possibilities are Best Picture and Actress.

Downsizing has a possible nomination for Supporting Actress.

Battle of the Sexes is possible for Best Actress.



AWARDS DAILY'S LATEST OSCAR TAKE




Sasha Stone's Awards Daily website (www.awardsdaily.com) posted its latest collection of Oscar predictions in her weekly "Predictions Friday" post.

TFF #44 films according to Stone grab nominations as follows:

Darkest Hour (10) Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

The Shape of Water (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

Lady Bird (3): Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Battle of the Sexes (2): Picture, Actress

Wonderstruck (1): Adapted Screenplay

The complete Predictions Friday from Awards Daily is here.


WEINSTEIN OUT OF AMPAS



It seemed like I should probably mention something about Harvey Weinstein in light of all of the furor of the past few days and his expulsion Saturday from The Academy of Motion Picture Hearts and Sciences.

Just a couple of notes...

The Weinstein Company has certainly been a presence (and Miramax before TWC) in the years I have been attending TFF.  Since I started going to T-ride, I count 18 films from one or the other of the companies including Oscar Best Picture winners The King's Speech and The Artist.  Other notable films from TWC or Miramax at TFF the last 12 fests included: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I'm Not There, The Imitation Game and The Road.

There were other films from Weinstein at the fest before I started going such as Finding Neverland and Lost in Translation.

From my notes, TWC was last represented at Telluride in 2015 with Todd Haynes' Carol.

In the dozen fests I have attended I only actually saw Weinstein with my own eyes in 2014 when The Imitation Game was playing the fest.

I recall some behind-the-scene angst in 2013 when I thought that Philomena would play TFF and did not.  The rumor was that it was a last minute pull and that TWC replaced it with Salinger.

I can recall being more than a little surprised in 2012 as I was going into The Chuck to see The Sapphires and was stopped by name by a representative from TWC saying that she'd like to get my reaction to the film afterwards.  I was stunned that they had any idea who I was and had a nice conversation after the film which I had really enjoyed.

So...

Weinstein is now gone from the membership of The Academy and is out at TWC.  I'm not sure where all of this will ultimately end up but I hope for some measure of justice for all the women that have come forward these past few days.

Here's Anne Thompson's Indiewire story from Sunday about Weinstein's ejection from AMPAS.


That'll do it for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.


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Monday, January 30, 2012

SAG Awards

Good Morning!



One semi-big surprise at The Screen Actors Guild Awards last night as Jean Dujardin won Best Actor over George Clooney.  That did nothing to dissuade those that believe that "The Artist" has a death grip on the Best Picture Oscar.  The other tiny surprise ( I wasn't) was Viola Davis over Meryl Streep for Best Actress.  All in all "The Help" scored three "Actors" on the evening. 

There still may be a slight case to be made that "The Help" or even "Hugo" or "The Descendants" might stage an upset for BP on Oscar night...but it'd be a stretch.  BTW, I still think Clooney ends up winning the Oscar.

Here's the complete film results from last night (via Awards Daily):


Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Viola Davis, The Help
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Cast in a Motion Picture
The Help

 I expect to have  a concluding post up from Sundance from Our Man in Utah later today sometime...look for that!

Later!

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