The FAC Updated Predictions for Supporting and Screenplays / Telluride Time Tunnel-Re-visiting TFF #13 / RT's Top 100 Films of 2017

HAPPY NEW 2018!


Welcome to Michael's Telluride Film Blog and The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC).

THE FAC UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Taking a look today at four categories to update them as we begin the new year.  Also a mention that the Golden Globe Awards are less than a week away.  They'll be announced on Sunday, Jan. 7th.

As always, the films/performers from TFF #44 films are indicated with Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Supporting races were last predicted in this space on Dec. 4th.  In that post the Supporting Actress race looked like this :

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Four weeks later, here's where we stand:

1) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

2) Alison Janney/I, Tonya

3) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

4) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick

5) Hong Chau/Downsizing

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Leslie Manville/The Phantom Thread.

Comment:  Blige has really seen a surge over the past couple of weeks.  The top spot is still very tight but Metcalf seems to have the edge at the moment.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

From a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


The updated predictions:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water
4) Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards
5) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Others: Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

Comment:  Nice surges for Jenkins and Harrelson.  Dafoe looks like the solid favorite to win at this point.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The screenplay categories are being updated for the first time since Nov. 9th...

Here's what was out front nearly two months back:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying

Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman

And today's update:

1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Wonderstruck

Comment:  A very stable category for the last two months.  The fifth spot is a toss up.  The top four seem to be in good shape.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

From Nov. 9th:

1) Three Billboards
2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Darkest Hour

Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya

And the new FAC prediction says:

1) Three Billboards

2) Get Out

3) Lady Bird

4) The Post

5) The Shape of Water

Others: The Big Sick, Phantom Thread, I Tonya

Comment: Phantom Thread supplants Darkest Hour in the conversation for the last spot.

TELLURIDE TIME TUNNEL-RE-VISITING TFF #13

MTFB continues its months long review of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. 

You may recall that I started this project back on April 13, 2017.  The goal here is to provide a place on the interwebs where someone could get a relatively complete look at what played at each Telluride Film Fest (in as far as feature films are concerned) since its inception.

As I have written on a couple of occasions, the current official Telluride Film Festival website has links to the programs for fests from 2006 to last year's program.  Prior to 2006, I am unaware of any other collection of data for TFF online.  This is an attempt to provide that.

So, we pick up where we left off with a look at the films and personalities of TFF #13.  The 13th Telluride Film Festival took place  from Aug. 29-September 1, 1986.

Tributes: Alexander Mackendrick, Jiri Menzel and Isabelle Huppert.

Also of note, a retrospective of the films of Anthony Mann labeled Mann of the West that featured the one and only Jimmy Stewart in person.

SHOWS:

The Biscuit Eater
Blue Velvet
Cactus
Closely Watched Trains
The Decline of the American Empire
Devil in the Flesh
Document: Fanny and Alexander
Eat the Peach
Eraserhead
The Gay Desperado
The Interrogation
The Lacemaker
The Ladykillers
A Lonely Woman
Los Inundados
The Man form Laramie
Mother Teresa
My Little Village
No End
The River's Edge
The Sacrifice
Sacrificed Youth
Seize the Day
Smasher
The Sweet Smell of Success
Therese
Tire Die
Too Far to Go
We Are the Living
Winchester 73
The Witch
Working Girls


Guests:

Denys Arcand
Laura Dern
Crispin Glover
Agnieszka Holland
Chuck Jones
David Lynch
Kyle MacLachlan
Anne Meara
Jerry Stiller
James Stewart
Robin Williams


I'm trying to imagine a weekend where I might have seen James Stewart, Robin Williams and David Lynch around town and also have caught screenings of Blue Velvet, The River's Edge, Winchester 73 and The Sweet Smell of Success.


RT'S TOP 100 FILMS OF 2017

Rotten Tomatoes has released its list of the top 100 films rated on their site for 2017.  The list includes a number of titles from both TFF #44 as well as TFF #43.

Those from TFF #44 making the grade are:

#91-The Other Side of Hope
#68-Human Flow
#67-Battle of the Sexes
#26-Faces Places
#20-The Shape of Water
#5-Lady Bird

Jordan Peele's Get Out is rated as the top film by RT for 2017.

TFF #43 films that made the RT Top 100 are:

#97-Maudie
#81-Frantz
#64-I Called Him Morgan
#61-The B-Side:Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
#44-Graduation
#35-Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds

The complete RT Top 100 list is linked here.




That's your first MTFB for 2018.  There will probably be more. Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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The FAC Updates Supporting Categories / NY Loves Lady Bird and LA Loves Name and Shape / The Week and a Half Ahead / Profile and Interview Grab Bag

Hope everyone had a fine weekend...and welcome back to MTFB.


THE F(ilm) A(wards) C(learinghouse) UPDATES SUPPORTING CATEGORIES


Our last look at the Supporting Actress and Actor categories came back on Nov. 6th.  After a month of that has seen the actual beginnings of award frenzy, there has been some movement in those categories.

As always, films/performers from TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here's where the category stood a month ago:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour

Others: Melissa Leo/Novitiate, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


And here's today's update:

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Mary J. Blige/Mudbound

Others: Hong Chau/Downsizing, Leslie Manville/Phantom Thread, Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Comment: Phantom Thread screenings have moved Manville into the convo (as well as the film and Daniel Day Lewis into stronger positions in the Best Picture and Actor categories.  Paul Thomas Anderson is also a serious player for Original Screenplay and possibly Director).  Scott Thomas falls out of immediate consideration which mirrors the general pull back from Darkest Hour that seems to have developed.  It's still regarded as a two pony race between Janney and Metcalf.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Best Supporting Actor race looked like this a month ago:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water

Others: Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

 Today's update looks like this:

1) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
2) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Mark Rylance/Dunkirk

Others: Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water, Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour, Ray Romano/The Big Sick


Comment: The top four stay solidly the same and, as with the women, the real race appears to be between the top two: Dafoe and Rockwell with everyone else jockeying for the "honor to be nominated" spots.  Michael Shannon's performance has lost forward momentum and that has boosted Rylance and Jenkins (who, of course, has been my personal choice on this category since seeing the film in Telluride over Labor Day).


NY LOVES LADY BIRD AND LA LOVES NAME AND SHAPE

The New York Film Critics Circle named their "Best Of" for 2017 on Thursday with Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird winning the top honor as Best Film.  Lady Bird star Saoirse Ronan was also honored as Best Actress.  The other TFF #44 film named by the NYFCC was Agnes Varda and JR's Faces Places as Best Non-fiction film.

Other key winners were:

Direction: Sean Baker/The Florida Project
Actor: Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Supporting Actress: Tiffany Haddish/Girl's Trip
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread

The complete list of NYFCC winners is here from Variety.

Meanwhile, yesterday, The Los Angeles Film Critics Association named their film superlatives for 2017 which was dominated by Luca Guadagnino's Call Me By Your Name and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.

TFF #44 recognition from the LAFCA was spearheaded by the three awards that Shape of Water received: Best Direction for Del Toro (in a tie with Guadagnino), Best Actress for Sally Hawkins and Best Cinematography.  It was also runner-up for Production Design and Score.

Other TFF #44 winners were Laurie Metcalf as Best Supporting Actress for her role in Lady Bird, Agnes Varda and JR's documentary Faces Places and Andrey Zvyagintsev's Loveless which tied with BPM for Best Foreign Language Film.

The L.A. critics also recognized Lady Bird writer/director Greta Gerwig with their New Generation Award.

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says that Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird might be the Oscar frontrunner right now.  I'm  not all the way there yet.  I still think that if I were a betting fellow that the best bet is still Chris Nolan's Dunkirk.  That said, I have been suggesting for almost a month now that I do think the preferential ballot maybe does boost Lady Bird and Sasha is way smarter and more experienced than most of the planet about Oscar.

Call Me By Your Name was recognized as Best Film (The Florida Project was named runner-up) along with recognition for Timothee Chalamet as Best Actor and the nod for Guadagnino's direction.

Coverage of the LAFCA awards is here from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Entertainment Weekly


THE WEEK AND A HALF AHEAD

Today's post continues its theme of focusing on the awards season as I turn to Sasha Stone's/Awards Daily's weekend post that identifies all of the awards dates/deadlines that are looming over the next ten days or so.  Key organizations and the dates of their reveals are:

Dec. 6th-Critic's Choice Nominations are announced.
Dec. 7th-American Film Institute announce their films of the year.
Dec. 11th-Golden Globe nominations are announced.
Dec. 13th-SAG-AFTRA nominations are announced.

And after that we won't see any other major group announcements until after the first of the year.


PROFILE AND INTERVIEW GRAB BAG:

Here's a collection of interviews and profiles I've collected the past few days about films that appeared as a part of the program for the 2017 edition of The SHOW:

Downsizing film editor Kevin Trent from Variety.  And also from Awards Circuit.

Wonderstruck (and TFF #44 Tribute recipient) Director of Photography Ed Lachman from Deadline.

20+ images from Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water from Entertainment Weekly.

Director Rebecca Miller on her doc Arthur Miller: Writer from Indiewire.

Darkest Hour score composer Dario Marianelli from Indiewire.



That's your wrap from MTFB for this Monday, Dec. 4th.  I'll be back with more on Thursday!


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Supporting Players Oscar Chances / Awards Daily's Latest Oscar Take / Weinstein Out of AMPAS

Welcome back from the weekend and to this Monday in October...


SUPPORTING PLAYERS OSCAR CHANCES

Since I got this year's FAC underway in last Thursday's post (with looks at the Best Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor categories), I thought I'd continue today with a review of where the Supporting Acting races look to stand at this point in mid-October.

Telluride #44 performances are in Bold.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alison Janney/I, Tonya
2) Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
3) Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
4) Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water
5) Melissa Leo/Novitiate

Others: Kristen Scott Thomas/Darkest Hour, Mary J. Blige/Mudbound, Hong Chau/Downsizing


SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
2) Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project
3) Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
4) Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
5) Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour

Others: Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water, Mark Rylance/Dunkirk, Kevin Spacey/All the Money in the World


Adding the first two FACs of the season together, here's where TFF #44 films stand in terms of the six categories that get the most attention:

Darkest Hour- Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor and also a possible shot at Supporting Actress.

The Shape of Water-Four nominations and one other potential. Noms: Picture, Direction, Actress and Supporting Actress.  The other possibility is Supporting Actor.

Lady Bird-One nomination and two potentials.  Nom: Supporting Actress.  Other possibilities are Best Picture and Actress.

Downsizing has a possible nomination for Supporting Actress.

Battle of the Sexes is possible for Best Actress.



AWARDS DAILY'S LATEST OSCAR TAKE

Sasha Stone's Awards Daily website (www.awardsdaily.com) posted its latest collection of Oscar predictions in her weekly "Predictions Friday" post.

TFF #44 films according to Stone grab nominations as follows:

Darkest Hour (10) Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

The Shape of Water (10): Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes

Lady Bird (3): Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Battle of the Sexes (2): Picture, Actress

Wonderstruck (1): Adapted Screenplay

The complete Predictions Friday from Awards Daily is here.


WEINSTEIN OUT OF AMPAS

It seemed like I should probably mention something about Harvey Weinstein in light of all of the furor of the past few days and his expulsion Saturday from The Academy of Motion Picture Hearts and Sciences.

Just a couple of notes...

The Weinstein Company has certainly been a presence (and Miramax before TWC) in the years I have been attending TFF.  Since I started going to T-ride, I count 18 films from one or the other of the companies including Oscar Best Picture winners The King's Speech and The Artist.  Other notable films from TWC or Miramax at TFF the last 12 fests included: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, I'm Not There, The Imitation Game and The Road.

There were other films from Weinstein at the fest before I started going such as Finding Neverland and Lost in Translation.

From my notes, TWC was last represented at Telluride in 2015 with Todd Haynes' Carol.

In the dozen fests I have attended I only actually saw Weinstein with my own eyes in 2014 when The Imitation Game was playing the fest.

I recall some behind-the-scene angst in 2013 when I thought that Philomena would play TFF and did not.  The rumor was that it was a last minute pull and that TWC replaced it with Salinger.

I can recall being more than a little surprised in 2012 as I was going into The Chuck to see The Sapphires and was stopped by name by a representative from TWC saying that she'd like to get my reaction to the film afterwards.  I was stunned that they had any idea who I was and had a nice conversation after the film which I had really enjoyed.

So...

Weinstein is now gone from the membership of The Academy and is out at TWC.  I'm not sure where all of this will ultimately end up but I hope for some measure of justice for all the women that have come forward these past few days.

Here's Anne Thompson's Indiewire story from Sunday about Weinstein's ejection from AMPAS.


That'll do it for this Monday.  More to come on Thursday.


 EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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