Michael's Telluride Film Blog : Darkest Hour

Showing posts with label Darkest Hour. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

R.I.P. Milos Stehlik / Telluride and Oscar Part Four: Best Actor / Judy Trailer Arrives with a Hint or Two

Hello again from MTFB. Here's your Tuesday installment...

R.I.P. MILOS STEHLIK

Milos Stehlik at the 71st Cannes Film Festival via WBEZ.org

Independent and International film pioneer Milos Stehlik has died of cancer at 70. Stehlik was a member of the Telluride Film Festival's Board of Governors and was a recipient of the fest's Silver Medallion back in 1997.

Here's the program entry from the 24th Fest (1997) complete with essay by the late Roger Ebert:

Stehlik was instrumental in bringing films from the Czech New Wave to America.

Variety has a very nice recap of Stehlik's life, career and ties to Telluride linked here. Included in that story is the news that beginning with this year's fest, one of the 50 members of TFF's Student Symposium will named Milos Stehlik/Facets Scholar.

Additionally, from RogerEbert.com, this from Brian Tallerico.

Also from his hometown Chicago newspapers. Here are stories from The Chicago Sun-Times and The Chicago Tribune.

Also, I reached out to former Telluride Film Festival Co-Director Gary Meyer who was kind enough to share some thoughts about Stehlik:

“Film is the most important art and it has the power to change the universe.”—Milos Stehlik

First, Milos Stehlik was a friend. He was a passionate yet gentle lover of cinema with a smile that made you especially happy to see him and his equally passionate wife Elizabeth. He enjoyed discussing practically any aspect of the movies and was especially interested in giving a platform to underrepresented voices from all over the world, especially the Czech films of his home country.

Milos was one of the most important film people on the Chicago scene. Facets MultiMedia was long an adventurous exhibition space with innovative programming and strong educational outreach to youth with classes, a film summer camp and the annual children's film festival he started 36 years ago that has an international impact.

Early on Milos saw the opportunity to expand people's cinema awareness by starting a video rental and sales division so that patrons could go deeper into their movie exploration. The catalogs they issued were huge and became essential reference books much like the Audio and Films Inc. rental catalogs of the 1970s. Look at this reference page. They also released for home video and libraries many hard-to-find films. Keeping ahead of the curve Facets moved from VHS to DVD/BluRay as those changes happened and dove into streaming early on.

Milos knew how to find and develop talented people to carry out his vision and keep Facets an essential and relevant place for film lovers. He had the vision to make certain a succession plan was in place to so his legacy would carry forward.

He was a staple on Chicago public radio's WBEZ, wrote about movies and was a popular film presenter.

Milos was a longtime attendee at the Telluride Film Festival, contributing his knowledge and connections. He had been on the Board of Governors for many years and was most recently President (2016-2017).

TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FOUR: BEST ACTOR

Picking up where I left off last week, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Last Thursday I looked at T-ride and the Best Actress nominees from the past 14 years. Today it's Best Actor. Here are the actors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated as leads. Additionally, if that actor won it is indicated with ***.

2005: Joaquin Phoenix/Walk the Line, Heath Ledger/Brokeback Mountain, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote***
2006: Forest Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland***, Peter O'Toole/Venus
2007: Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood*** (I always count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Brad Pitt/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: George Clooney/Up in the Air
2010: Colin Firth/The King's Speech***, Javier Bardem/Biutiful, James Franco/127 Hours
2011: Jean Dujardin/The Artist***, George Clooney/The Descendents
2012: No nominees

2013: Bruce Dern/Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2014: Michael Keaton/Birdman, Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game, Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
2015: Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
2016: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea***, Ryan Gosling/La La Land
2017: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour***
2018: No nominees

Notes: 22 nominees over the 14 years with seven wins. 2018 is the only year since 2005 that no TFF film had a Best Actor nominee.

Thursday we'll take a look at the History of Telluride and Best Supporting Actress.

JUDY TRAILER ARRIVES WITH A HINT OR TWO

As reported yesterday, the Judy Garland biopic starring Renee Zellweger landed a full length trailer yesterday. Here it is from YouTube:

Included in a couple of stories I've seen is speculation as to the possibility of fall fest screenings for the film. Andreas Wiseman writing for Deadline.com says, "We've heard that there's a good chance the the movie could debut at Telluride."

That Deadline story in its entirety is linked here.

Meanwhile, other coverage of the trailer release is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire and The Playlist.

Judy is scheduled for release on Sept. 27th.

Thursday, March 8, 2018

The Oscar Dust Settles / Looking Ahead to Oscar 2019 and Telluride

It's the Thursday after the Oscars....

THE OSCAR DUST SETTLES

Let it be said that I personally enjoyed Oscar Night 2018. Largely for these reasons:

1) The Telluride Film Festival Streak of screening the Best Picture winner clicked over to eight straight years in a row and nine of the last ten. That's cool. More about that a little later.

2) I had a big night in the prediction department going 21 of 24 (and 20 of 21 in the non-shorts categories. The only feature category that I whiffed on: Visual Effects where I had War for the Planet of the Apes and Blade Runner 2049 won. In a side note: I did list BR 2049 as a possible player in the category.

3) I loved seeing Guillermo Del Toro win. Such a warm and kind fellow human. Needless to say, I plastered the pic he took of himself with me and my wife all over Twitter and Facebook...again. And here it is:

This was taken at the Fox Searchlight party at the New Sheridan Bar.

Notes on the season...

As mentioned in Monday's post, Telluride films picked up seven Oscars:

The Shape of Water had four: Best Picture, Direction, Production Design and Original Score

Darkest Hour had two: Best Actor and Makeup and Hair

A Fantastic Woman was Best Foreign Language Film

In addition to TFF #44 continuing the Best Picture string, I'm going to note that the People's, Pro's and Composite Telluride rankings featured here every year after the fest have become surprisingly predictive.

For example, I've done The People's Telluride Ratings and The Professionals Ratings (or some version of them) here now since 2012 and the Composite of the two since 2013.

Up until last year, and Moonlight's win, the film that finished as the second highest rated film in the People's Ratings won the Best Picture Oscar. Moonlight broke that string when the 2016 T-ride crowd rated it #1. This year...the #2 spot was golden again as that's where The Shape pf Water finished (2nd to Lady Bird).

However, the Composite ratings have been five straight years of invincible with the composite top rated film in each year since I started it in 2013 winning Oscar's top prize.

Of the three metrics, the Pros are a bit more all over the place:

2012- Argo was #2 to The Central Park Five

2013- 12 Years a Slave was #1

2014- Birdman was #1

2015- Spotlight was #3 behind Son of Saul and Anomalisa

2016- Moonlight was #1

2017- The Shape of Water was #1

So...if you're looking to wager next fall after TFF #45 concludes, check the #1 Composite rated film in this space about two weeks after the fest.

LOOKING AHEAD TO OSCAR 2019

The Oscar season never really ends. Any number of Oscar Prognosticators have already started the running tote board for next year's awards. That. as you know, can offer us clues about what films might be on the Telluride SHOW list in six months. So...because this is what it is...I'll be looking at some of the "year-out" predictions for clues for possible films make The SHOW lineup starting with this article from Awards Circuit's Clayton Davis.

Among Davis' Best Picture predictions are some that have a real chance to be at Telluride:

Backstreet (the Adam McKay Dick Cheney movie with last year's TFF Tribute recipient Christian Bale as Cheney)

If Beale Street Could Talk (Telluride favorite Barry Jenkins follow-up to a little film called Moonlight...maybe you've heard of it)

Martin Scorsese's The Irishman. I can see Netflix wanting to play this at Telluride.

Boy Erased. Joel Edgerton's drama about gay conversion therapy.

At Eternity's Gate-could Julian Schnabel return to Telluride with this story of Vincent Van Gogh starring Willem Dafoe?

Mary Queen of Scots with Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie and from Focus Features (which had a very nice Telluride 2017 with Darkest Hour.

On the Basis if Sex-Mimi Leder's Ruth Bader Ginsburg pic starring Felicity Jones and also from Focus Features.

Private Life-Tamara Jenkins first feature since 2007's The Savages, which was great and played Telluride. Paul Giamatti stars.

Widows-Steve McQueen. He's played Telluride with Hunger, Shame, 12 Years a Slave.

Roma-Alfonso Cuaron. After Gravity's success at T-ride and the great run that he and his amigos -Inarritu and now Del Toro have also had a TFF play wouldn't surprise.

That's all for today. More to come on Monday!

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, March 5, 2018

And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!

AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.

THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride. That run now includes a string of eight in a row. The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance. It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride. That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note: Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall. Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you. You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.

BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus). As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night. I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite. It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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Sunday, March 4, 2018

Final Oscar #90 Predictions / Oscar Predictions from the Experts

Here's a special Sunday edition of MTFB...because, you know, Oscars...

FINAL OSCAR #90 PREDICTIONS

Here are MTFB's final Oscar predictions for 2018. Accuracy you ask? Last year was a semi-disaster as I only correctly predicted 15 of the 24 categories. That repeated 2016's tally. That came on the heels of the 2015 and 16 Oscars where I was on fire going 40 of 48 over the previous two years.

Here's

2017: 15/24
2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

The overall record for the past eight years of Oscar predicting: 139/192 for a 72.4% success rate. All that means that the the average suggests that I'll hit about 17 or 18 of these and miss on six or seven.

With that in mind here are MTFB's predictions for The 90th Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Dunkirk
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid. We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top: The Shape of Water

Late note: I have moved Get Out ahead of Dunkirk to the #3 spot as of 11am (CDT) Sunday morning.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's. Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win. Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Allison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf. If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

This is all over the place. I've run across support for the notion of any one of the five films winning the trophy Sunday night. For the moment, let's call the winner A Fantastic Woman with The Square and Loveless also possible.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Another difficult race. I've changed this prediction to Icarus with TFF #44's Faces Places as the upset possible.

BEST FILM EDITING

A tight race between Dunkirk and Baby Driver. I'm going with Dunkirk.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will it be Roger Deakins' year, finally, for Blade Runner 2049? I'm saying yes but there is also a lot of support for Dunkirk and The Shape of Water.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water seems most likely followed by Blade Runner 2049.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Another toss up. I'm going with Remember Me from Coco with This Is Me from The Greatest Showman as the upset special.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat looks to have the inside track for The Shape of Water. Hans Zimmer could get it for Dunkirk.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

I'm expecting Phantom Thread to win this with The Shape of Water as a potential spoiler.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

The overwhelming sentiment is that the crew from Darkest Hour will win for their transformation of Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. Wonder could challenge, but likely will not.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A very competitive category from which I'm predicting War for the Planet of the Apes but Blade Runner 2049 or Last Jedi could also play.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk. Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk. Maybe Baby Driver.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Dear Basketball is my pick here to win. Runner Up: Garden Party

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

DeKalb Elementary with The Silent Child as your upset special.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Edith and Eddie edges out Heroin(e).

If these predictions are 100% accurate (and they won't be...see above) then TFF #44 films will lay out this way:

The Shape of Water wins four : Best Picture, Direction, Original Score and Production Design

Darkest Hour wins two: Best Actor and Makeup/Hair

A Fantastic Woman; Best Foreign Language Film

Total Telluride take: Seven Oscars.

Other multiple winners:

Dunkirk with three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Three Billboards with two: Best Actress and Supporting Actor
Coco wins two: Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song

Among feature categories, seven films will pick up a single Oscar:

I, Tonya: Best Supporting Actress
Get Out: Best Original Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name: Best Adapted Screenplay
Icarus: Best Doc
Blade Runner 2049: Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins finally gets Oscar)
War for the Planet of the Apes: Best Visual Effects
Phantom Thread: Best Costumes

OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

Here's an analysis of Oscar predictions from expert Oscarologists with links to their final picks.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Sasha and I diverge on Best Pic. She has Three Billboards. Other spots where we disagree and Sasha's picks in each:

Song: Mighty River
Foreign Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Animated Short: Garden Party
Live Action Short: My Nephew Emmett

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/InContention

Kris and I diverge in four categories: Kris has:

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards
Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Scott has five differences from my picks:

Foreign Language: The Insult
Production Design: Blade Runner 2049
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Live Action Short: The Eleven O'Clock

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Anne and I match a good deal. We differ in two categories:

Documentary: Faces Places
Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Awards Watch

Erik Anderson's group and I diverge in six places:

Song: This Is Me
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Doc: Last Men in Aleppo
Foreign Language Film: Loveless
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Live Action Short: The Silent Child

Greg Ellwood/The Playlist

Greg and I are hugely agreeable only picking one category differently. Greg's picks that are different from mine:

Doc Short: Heroin(e)

Pete Hammond/Deadline

Pete and I diverge in three categories: He says:

Foreign Language Film: The Insult
Doc Short: Heroin(e)
Animated Short: Negative Space

I'll have more in tomorrow morning's regularly scheduled post.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Oscar Predictions Ten Days Out / Future Telluride: Quixote, The Goldfinch and Radioactive

Last Thursday in February my friends...

OSCAR PREDICTIONS TEN DAYS OUT

With a week and a half left before they open the envelopes in L.A. and still a few days left to vote, here are Oscar predictions for the eight major feature film categories at this moment:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Dunkirk
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid. We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:

Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity

But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'll update these predictions next week but for now, I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top.

The Wrap's Steve Pond wrote about the five films still thought to be in contention. Here is Pond's article.

BEST ACTRESS

It's Frances McDormand's. Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman for the win. Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf. If anyone would upset, it would be her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name. Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

An category that is very competitive. Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance. My call, for the moment: Get Out.

FUTURE TELLURIDE: QUIXOTE, THE GOLDFINCH AND RADIOACTIVE

Three films that appear, at least initially to be potential choices for future TFFs are moving forward.

We have stills from Terry Gilliam's incredibly long gestating passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote. The film still seems very likely for Cannes and then, perhaps a play at Telluride could be in the offing. The Playlist put up a new still from the film that has completed filming and is in editing. As a matter of fact, a rough cut has been screened.

Here's the pic of Jonathan Pryce as Quixote:

The Playlist post is here.

We also saw the first stills from The Goldfinch based on the Donna Tartt novel and under the direction of John Crowley (Brooklyn). The film is currently scheduled for release on Oct. 11, 2019.

Warner Brothers is distributing and has a solid recent history with films playing at Telluride: Argo, Black Mass, Sully.

Indiewire had a number of shots from the film in a post up earlier this week:

That Indiewire post is here.

And finally, we saw news this week of the next film project from film maker Marjane Satrapi who made waves at Telluride in 2007 with her wonderful animated film Persepolis.

Variety reported that Amazon has decided to back her next project which will focus on the life of famed scientist Madame Marie Curie. The film is titled Radioactive.

The film is set to star Rosamund Pike as the trail blazing scientist. Pike was a guest at Telluride last year with her film Hostiles.

The Variety story is here.

More on Monday including Oscar predictions in more categories.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, February 15, 2018

The Tenth Telluride Film Festival Re-visited / Oscar Watchers Say...

Welcome to Thursday...

THE TENTH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED

My ongoing history project for the Telluride Film Festival goes on as we look at the the Tenth TFF that occurred Sept. 2-5, 1983. Here are the particulars:

Tributes:

Richard Widmark, Andrei Tarkovsky and Luis Trenker. Irwin Young was rewarded with a Special Medallion. Additionally, the fest included a homage to David Niven.

SHOWS:

Alambrista
The Ballad of Gregorio Cortez
Boat People
Booker
Carmen
The Challenge
Chan Is Missing
Danton
Detour
Dung Aw
El Norte
Entre Nous
The Eyes, The Mouth
Forbidden Relations
In Heaven There Is No Beer
In the Name of the Father
Insiang
The Kaiser from California
Last Night at the Alamo
The Lost Son
My Name Is Ivan
Night and the City
Nostalghia
Pitfall
The Plague Dogs
Play Dirty
Rings on the Water
Seeing Red
Signal
The Simple Minded Murder
Sli
Testament
Turumba
The Way Ahead
White Shadows on the South Sea

GUESTS

William Devane
Taylor Hackford
Leonard Maltin
Edward James Olmos
Wayne Wang

OSCAR WATCHERS SAY...

Here's a quick sampler of where a number of the best Oscarologists think the Best Picture race is a week before the actual final voting starts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

1) Get Out
2) The Shape of Water
3) Dunkirk
4) Three Billboards
5) Lady Bird
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Darkest Hour
8) The Post
9) Phantom Thread

Stone's latest predictions are here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Dunkirk
5) Phantom Thread
6) Get Out
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Davis' latest predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Darkest Hour
8) Call Me By Your Name
9) The Post

Feinberg's latest predictions are here.

Erik Anderson (and crew)/Awards Watch:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post

Awards Watch's latest predictions are here.

Gold Derby:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Get Out
4) Lady Bird
5) Dunkirk
6) Call Me By Your Name
7) Phantom Thread
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Gold Derby's latest predictions are here.

That's today's MTFB. More on Monday.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, February 8, 2018

Telluride Time Travel-The 11th Telluride Film Festival / Looking Back at Last Year's Oscar Predictions

Good Thursday...

TELLURIDE TIME TRAVEL- THE 11TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL

I'm continuing my TFF history project in today's post includes a quick look back at the 11th Telluride Film Festival. TFF #11 occurred on Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 1984. Highlights:

Tribute Recipients were: Henry Hathaway, Janet Leigh and Andrzej Wajda.

SHOWS:

Act of Violence
Almonds and Raisins
America and Lewis Hine
Camila
Cheaters
Coup De Torchon
Everything for Sale
Full Moon in Paris
Go Masters
Go Tell It on the Mountain
The Holy Innocents
L'Hirondelle et la Mesange
The Last Campaign
Lonely Hearts
Love in Germany
Maidstone
Man of Flowers
Milky Way
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
My First Wife
Paris, Texas
Peter Ibbetson
A Poet in the Cinema: Andrey Tarkovsky
Providence
Raw Deal
Reign of Terror
Repo Man
Slightly Scarlett
Steaming
Stranger than Paradise
Sunday in the Country
The Times of Harvey Milk
To the Last Man
Where the Green Ants Dream
Wooden Crosses

Participants (partial list):

Ry Cooder
Athol Fugard
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Klaus Kinski
Jessica Lange
Norman Mailer
Sam Sheperd
Dean Stockwell
Bertrand Travernier
Harry Dean Stanton
Wim Wenders

TFF #11 became an important fest to remember this year with the death of Harry Dean Stanton.

LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Every year after the Oscar ceremony ends, there are some pundits who turn the page very quickly and predict possible players for the Oscar race a year out. I scour those for clues about films that could become Telluride invitees.

I thought today, with Oscar 2018 less than a month away, it might be interesting to see what that looked like. For example, in my Mar. 2, 2017 post I included a link to an Awards Circuit story that named 50 anticipated films.

From that list I named Downsizing, Battle of the Sexes and Wonderstruck as TFF possibilities (and they have zero nominations between them). I also incorrectly guessed The Current War, Suburbicon and Molly's Game.

That MTFB post is here.

A more Oscar specific Awards Circuit article was referenced on Mar. 9th.

I culled that list of films and named possible TFF films which included: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Wonderstruck, Lean on Pete and The Shape of Water.

That post is here.

And Glenn Whipp took a stab for the L.A. Times which I evaluated and named Downsizing, Wonderstruck and hinted at Darkest Hour.

So as we move to the end of Oscar season, know this...there will be a new set of these type of articles soon and I will examine those for TFF #45 possibilities.

You can't stop what's coming.

My analysis of The L.A. Times article is here.

That's your MTFB for Thursday. More Monday.

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 29, 2018

Telluride in 1985: Re-visiting TFF #12 / The FAC's First Oscar Winners Forecast / EW Profiles Lady Bird / THR and the Paths to Oscar Glory

Welcome back from the last weekend of the first month of 2018.

TELLURIDE IN 1985: RE-VISITING TFF #12

The 12th Telluride Film Festival took place from Aug. 30-Sept. 2, 1985.

TRIBUTES:

Alexander Trauner
Emilio Fernandez
Hanna Schygulla

SHOWS

All he King's Men
Bliss
Chaos
Colonel Redl
Derborence
Desert Hearts
Drums Across the Sea
Dracula
Frida
The Funeral
The Girl with the Hat Box
The Great Wall Is a Great Wall
Harvest
Hidden River
The House on Trubaya Square
Huey Long
In Her Own Time
The Journey of Natty Gann
Les Visiteurs Du Soir
Louie Bluie
Lulu in Berlin
The Marriage of Maria Braun
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
The Mystery of Picasso
Nicaragua Was Our Home
Night of the Shooting Stars
One More Spring
The Passion of Joan of Arc
The Pearl
The Rebel
Reed: Insurgent Mexico
Sheer Madness
The Woman Men Yearn For
Yellow Earth

PARTICIPANTS

Klaus Maria Brandauer
Ken Burns
Roger Ebert
Chuck Jones
Helen Shaver
Alice Waters
Terry Zwigoff

THE FAC'S FIRST OSCAR WINNERS FORECAST

Here's a quick look at four major categories and what I perceive as the most to least likely winners in each category on Oscar Night, Mar. 4th.

Best Picture:

1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Lady Bird
4) Get Out
5) Dunkirk
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) The Post
9) Darkest Hour

Best Direction

1) Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
2) Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
3) Greta Gerwig/ Lady Bird
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Phantom Thread
5) Jordan Peele

Best Actress

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
4) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Meryl Streep/The Post

Best Actor

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
4) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
5) Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

EW PROFILES LADY BIRD

Entertainment Weekly published a profile of Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird this week as Oscar nominations were announced. The cover photo:

The film received five nominations last Tuesday for Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.

Here's the link to the online version.

THR AND THE PATHS TO OSCAR GLORY

The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway posted analysis this week about the ways and circumstances for a number of the Best Picture nominees to pay that off with the win for Best Picture on March 4th.

The article includes particularly analysis for TFF #44 films The Shape of Water and Lady Bird with Darkest Hour mentioned...barely.

Here's the link to the Galloway analysis.

That's your MTFB for Monday, Jan. 29, 2018. I'll have more on Thursday...that'll be in February!

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Thursday, January 25, 2018

Oscar Thoughts and Telluride / Oscar Stats / Gold Derby's Early Line

Welcome to Thursday.

OSCAR THOUGHTS AND TELLURIDE

After the dust settles on Tuesday morning (and a couple of corrections after I lost the Best Costume Design nominees for a little while) we found that films that had played at the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival had garnered 30 nominations. That's a far cry from last years total of 42 but still slightly ahead of the average number of nominations (around 28) since I have been tracking the awards season as a part of this space.

The breakdown:

The Shape of Water (13 which led all nominees...by a considerable margin): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Darkest Hour (6): Best Picture, Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.

One nomination each for:

A Fantastic Woman- Foreign Language Film

The Insult-Foreign Language Film

Loveless- Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent-Animated Feature

Faces Places-Documentary Feature

Heroin(e)- Documentary Short

The FAC predictions went 94/122 for 77%...very average for The FAC.

The FAC nailed some categories going 5 for 5 in Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Original Song, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

I was worst in Live Action and Documentary Short going 2 of 5 in both of those categories.

As is often the case, there were a number of categories where I had an what turned out to be an actual nominee in the first slot beyond my predicted nominees including Meryl Streep for Best Actress, Denzel Washington for Best Actor, Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Christopher Plummer in Best Supporting Actor. Other categories where that was the case were: Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature, and all three Shorts categories for a total of nine near misses.

I did hit 8/9 in Best Picture with Phantom Thread being where I whiffed.

As a matter of fact, the biggest surprise to me was the strength of Phantom Thread which landed a total of six nominations including Best Picture and Best Direction. Another surprise, The Post's meager two nominations for Best Picture and Best Actress.

My best work...edging up Darkest Hour to my 9th spot. My worst...missing Meryl Streep. Never bet against Streep.

Now it's the wait for March 4th and the actual ceremony.

OSCAR STATS

In addition to The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour and Lady Bird, there were other films that landed multiple nominations.

Following The Shape of Water, Dunkirk came next with 8 nominations followed by

Three Billboards 7
Phantom Thread 6
Blade Runner 2049 5
Call Me By Your Name, Mudbound, Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Get Out each had 4 nominations.

Indiewire has the complete breakdown of nominees per film and per distributor and you can find that post linked here.

Additionally, you can find Indiewire's analysis of the nominees here.

GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Gold Derby has established their front runners.

The Shape of Water leads for Best Picture with odds of 9/2. Three Billboards is next and then Lady Bird.

Other early leaders in major categories are:

Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water. Odds- 3/2
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour. Odds- 3/2
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards. Odds- 8/5
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards. Odds- 13/8
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney 7/4
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird 12/5
Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name 8/5

The complete Gold Derby Odds are here.

That's your Thursday for MTFB. I'll have more for you on Monday. Have a great weekend!

EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Monday, January 22, 2018

MTFB/FAC Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / The FAC Oscar Nomination Breakdown / Final Oscar Predictions from Experts / Producers Guild Awards The Shape of Water / SAG-AFtra Likes Three Billboards

It's Monday and in less than 24 hours we will know the Oscar nominees for the 90th Edition of the awards...

MTFB/FAC FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they are...the final predictions for Oscar nominations. Historically, The FAC is accurate 75%-80%. It's also worth noting that in those categories where The FAC misses the sixth predicted nominee pops up more than half of the time.

Nomination predictions are alphabetical. "Others" are listed in the order of their probability of displacing one of the predicted nominees.

TFF #44 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Others: (in order of likelihood): Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Big Sick, Phantom Thread

BEST DIRECTION

Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig/Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh/Three Billboards
Christopher Nolan/Dunkirk
Jordan Peele/Get Out

Others: Steven Spielberg/The Post, Sean Baker/The Florida Project, Luca Guadagnino/Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Meryl Streep/The Post, Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul, Michelle Williams/All the Money in the World

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis/Phantom Thread

James Franco/The Disaster Artist

Daniel Kaluuya/Get Out

Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

Others: Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post, Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/The Big Sick
Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird

Others: Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water, Tiffany Haddish/Girls Trip, Lesley Manville/Phantom Thread

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe/The Florida Project

Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name

Woody Harrelson/Three Billboards

Richard Jenkins/The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards

Others: Christopher Plummer/All the Money in the World, Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name, Steve Carell/Battle of the Sexes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Wonder

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

Others: The Post, Phantom Thread, I, Tonya

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Others; The Insult, The Wound, Felicitie

ANIMATED FEATURE

The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby
Coco
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Others: Ferdinand, Despicable Me 3, Cars 3

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Faces Places
Icarus
Jane
The Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Others: City of Ghosts, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Long Strange Trip

FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Shape of Water

Others: The Post, I Tonya, Lady Bird

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Others:Three Billboards, The Post, Call Me By Your Name

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

COSTUME DESIGN

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul

Others: The Post, I Tonya, The Greatest Showman

MAKEUP AND HAIR

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Others: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Bright, Ghosts in the Shell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Others: Victoria and Abdul, The Last Jedi, Three Billboards

ORIGINAL SONG

The Mystery of Love/Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me/ Coco
This Is Me/The Greatest Showman
Stand Up for Something/Marshall
Mighty River/Mudbound

Others: Evermore/Beauty and the Beast, It Ain't Fair/Detroit, Prayers for This World/Cries From Syria

VISUAL EFFECTS

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water
War for the Planet of the Apes

Others: Okja, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Valerian

SOUND EDITING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Wonder Woman, Coco, War for the Planet of the Apes

SOUND MIXING

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Last Jedi
The Shape of Water

Others: Get Out, Wonder Woman, War for the Planet of the Apes

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Dekalb Elementary
Facing Mecca
Lost Face
Watu Wote
Witnesses

Others: My Nephew Emmett, The Silent Child, Eleven O'Clock

ANIMATED SHORT

Cradle
Dear Basketball
In a Heartbeat
Lou
Negative Space

Others: Revolting Rhymes, Life Smartphone, Fox and the Whale

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

116 Cameras
Alone-The New York Times
Edith and Eddie
Heroin(e)
Kayayo-The Living Shopping Baskets

Others: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405, Ten Meter Tower, Traffic Stop

THE FAC OSCAR NOMINATION BREAKDOWN

If the FAC is 100% accurate tomorrow morning (and it will actually be between 70%-80% accurate if the past is prologue), here are some interesting notes:

TFF #44 films will collect 29 total nominations.

The Shape of Water will lead all nominees with 13: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing. The film could tie La La Land's all time total of 14 or even go to 15 with additional nominations for Octavia Spencer (very possible) and/or Michael Shannon (unlikely).

Darkest Hour (6): Best Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Makeup and Hair. Don't go to sleep on Darkest Hour's Best Picture chances. If the BP field extends past eight films, it could slip in. Strong support in the craft categories and a strong vote from British Academy members could all create enough heat to propel it onto the list.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay. If Lady Bird picks up a sixth nomination expect it to be for Film Editing (not likely) which could signal that it is still very solid contender for BP. Tracy Letts has a way, way outside shot at Best Supporting Actor.

Other TFF #44 films The FAC says get nominated:

Hong Chau/Best Supporting Actress-Downsizing
Foreign Language Film nominees: A Fantastic Woman, Foxtrot, Loveless
Loving Vincent/Animated Feature
Faces Places/Documentary Feature
Heroin(e)/Documentary Short

Other films with four or more nominations:

Dunkirk-8
Three Billboards-7
Call Me By Your Name-5
Get Out-5
Blade Runner 2049-4
Mudbound-4
Phantom Thread-4

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS FROM EXPERTS

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Tapley Predicts the following nominations for TFF #44 films

The Shape of Water (11)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing.

Lady Bird (5)- Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Ronan), Supporting Actress (Metcalf), Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (5)- Actor (Oldman), Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Original Score, Production Design

Downsizing (1)- Supporting Actress (Chau)

Loving Vincent (1)- Animated Feature

A Fantastic Woman (1)- Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1)- Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1)- Foreign Language Film

Faces Places (1)- Documentary

Heroin(e) (1)- Documentary Short

Tapley's Telluride total = 28 nominations

Here's his complete set of final Oscar nomination predictions.

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (3): Actor, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Downsizing (1): Supporting Actress

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Stone doesn't predict the Short Film categories.

Stone's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 26 nominations

Stone's complete "Predictions Friday" post is here.

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Costumes, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects.

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (4): Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (1) Adapted Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

The Insult (1) Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Davis' total predictions for TFF #44 films: 31.

Davis complete final predictions are here.

Scott Feinberg/Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter

The Shape of Water (12): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour (7): Best Picture, Actor, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Original Score

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Feinberg's total predictions for TFF #44 films: 29.

Feinberg's complete final predictions are here.

Erik Anderson and The Gold Rush Gang/Awards Watch

The Shape of Water (13): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Sound Mixing, Visual Effects

Darkest Hour (6): Actor, Cinematography, Original Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

Lady Bird (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

A Fantastic Woman (1): Foreign Language Film

Foxtrot (1): Foreign Language Film

Loveless (1): Foreign Language Film

Loving Vincent (1): Animated Feature

Faces Places (1): Documentary Feature

Heroin(e) (1): Documentary Short

Anderson and crew predict a total of 30 nominations for TFF #44 films.

Their complete predictions are here.

THE PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS THE SHAPE OF WATER

Ahead of its expected announcement as the leader in number of Oscar nominations tomorrow, The Producers Guild names Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water their Best Picture of the Year on Saturday night.

It's worth noting that The PGA has a preferential ballot like Oscar does. It;s also worth noting that La La Land won the PGA and led all films in Oscar nominations last year and look how that turned out.

I have linked coverage and analysis from:

Awards Daily

Variety

Indiewire

SAG-AFTRA LIKES THREE BILLBOARDS

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri cleaned up at last night's SAG-AFTRA Awards claiming the Best Ensemble prize along with wins for Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor.

Though the voting for Oscar nominations has been over for a few days, this turn of events along with The Shape of Water's win at the PGA on Saturday seems to indicate a two film race between Three Billboards and Shape for the Best Picture Oscar.

Many of the Oscar experts I follow, however are saying that both Get Out and Lady Bird aren't out of the race yet.

I have linked analysis from:

Kristopher Tapley-Variety/In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Pete Hammond-Deadline

That's it for this Monday. I'll post Oscar nominees and a few thoughts tomorrow after the nominees are announced in a SPECIAL POST of Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse.