OSCAR PREDICTIONS TEN DAYS OUT
With a week and a half left before they open the envelopes in L.A. and still a few days left to vote, here are Oscar predictions for the eight major feature film categories at this moment:
BEST PICTURE
1) The Shape of Water
2) Three Billboards
3) Dunkirk
4) Get Out
5) Lady Bird
6) Phantom Thread
7) Call Me By Your Name
8) Darkest Hour
9) The Post
The top five seem like the only real candidates and their positions are fluid. We've gotten used to having a two horse race down the finish these past few years:
Moonlight vs. La La Land
Spotlight vs. The Revenant
Birdman vs. Boyhood
12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity
But this year...you can make a reasonable case for any of the top four and Lady Bird still has a path to the big prize. I'll update these predictions next week but for now, I'm putting the nomination leader and PGA/DGA winner at the top.
The Wrap's Steve Pond wrote about the five films still thought to be in contention. Here is Pond's article.
BEST ACTRESS
It's Frances McDormand's. Upset specials: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.
BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman for the win. Timothee Chalamet is your best chance at a spoiler.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Alison Janney has this sown up in a race that was once perceived as a tight contest with Laurie Metcalf. If anyone would upset, it would be her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell with the win in another category that was initially thought to be competitive with Willem Dafoe.
BEST DIRECTION
Guillermo Del Toro is your favorite to win here but it's not a lock. Christopher Nolan is a possible upset.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
No one thinks it's likely that anyone but James Ivory wins for Call Me By Your Name. Upset special: Aaron Sorkin for Molly's Game.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
An category that is very competitive. Three Billboards and Get Out are thought to be the favorite with Lady Bird and The Shape of Water with an outside chance. My call, for the moment: Get Out.
FUTURE TELLURIDE: QUIXOTE, THE GOLDFINCH AND RADIOACTIVE
Three films that appear, at least initially to be potential choices for future TFFs are moving forward.
We have stills from Terry Gilliam's incredibly long gestating passion project, The Man Who Killed Don Quixote. The film still seems very likely for Cannes and then, perhaps a play at Telluride could be in the offing. The Playlist put up a new still from the film that has completed filming and is in editing. As a matter of fact, a rough cut has been screened.
Here's the pic of Jonathan Pryce as Quixote:
The Playlist post is here.
We also saw the first stills from The Goldfinch based on the Donna Tartt novel and under the direction of John Crowley (Brooklyn). The film is currently scheduled for release on Oct. 11, 2019.
Warner Brothers is distributing and has a solid recent history with films playing at Telluride: Argo, Black Mass, Sully.
Indiewire had a number of shots from the film in a post up earlier this week:
And finally, we saw news this week of the next film project from film maker Marjane Satrapi who made waves at Telluride in 2007 with her wonderful animated film Persepolis.
Variety reported that Amazon has decided to back her next project which will focus on the life of famed scientist Madame Marie Curie. The film is titled Radioactive.
The film is set to star Rosamund Pike as the trail blazing scientist. Pike was a guest at Telluride last year with her film Hostiles.
The Variety story is here.
More on Monday including Oscar predictions in more categories.
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