R.I.P. Milos Stehlik / Telluride and Oscar Part Four: Best Actor / Judy Trailer Arrives with a Hint or Two

Hello again from MTFB.  Here's your Tuesday installment...


R.I.P. MILOS STEHLIK

Milos Stehlik at the 71st Cannes Film Festival via WBEZ.org

Independent and International film pioneer Milos Stehlik has died of cancer at 70.  Stehlik was a member of the Telluride Film Festival's Board of Governors and was a recipient of the fest's Silver Medallion back in 1997.


Here's the program entry from the 24th Fest (1997) complete with essay by the late Roger Ebert:

Stehlik was instrumental in bringing films from the Czech New Wave to America.

Variety has a very nice recap of Stehlik's life, career and ties to Telluride linked here.  Included in that story is the news that beginning with this year's fest, one of the 50 members of TFF's Student Symposium will named Milos Stehlik/Facets Scholar.


Additionally, from RogerEbert.com, this from Brian Tallerico.

Also from his hometown Chicago newspapers.  Here are stories from The Chicago Sun-Times and The Chicago Tribune.

Also, I reached out to former Telluride Film Festival Co-Director Gary Meyer who was kind enough to share some thoughts about Stehlik:

“Film is the most important art and it has the power to change the universe.”—Milos Stehlik


First, Milos Stehlik was a friend. He was a passionate yet gentle lover of cinema with a smile that made you especially happy to see him and his equally passionate wife Elizabeth. He enjoyed discussing practically any aspect of the movies and was especially interested in giving a platform to underrepresented voices from all over the world, especially the Czech films of his home country.

Milos was one of the most important film people on the Chicago scene. Facets MultiMedia was long an adventurous exhibition space with innovative programming and strong educational outreach to youth with classes, a film summer camp and the annual children's film festival he started 36 years ago that has an international impact. 

Early on Milos saw the opportunity to expand people's cinema awareness by starting a video rental and sales division so that patrons could go deeper into their movie exploration.  The catalogs they issued were huge and became essential reference books much like the Audio and Films Inc. rental catalogs of the 1970s. Look at this reference page. They also released for home video and libraries many hard-to-find films.  Keeping ahead of the curve Facets moved from VHS to DVD/BluRay as those changes happened and dove into streaming early on. 

Milos knew how to find and develop talented people to carry out his vision and keep Facets an essential and relevant place for film lovers. He had the vision to make certain a succession plan was in place to so his legacy would carry forward.

He was a staple on Chicago public radio's WBEZ, wrote about movies and was a popular film presenter.

Milos was a longtime attendee at the Telluride Film Festival, contributing his knowledge and connections. He had been on the Board of Governors for many years and was most recently President (2016-2017).


TELLURIDE AND OSCAR PART FOUR: BEST ACTOR

Picking up where I left off last week, I'm continuing an eight part series of articles tracing the connection between films that have played Telluride's Film Fest and the eight "major" Oscar categories.

Last Thursday I looked at T-ride and the Best Actress nominees from the past 14 years.  Today it's Best Actor.  Here are the actors that played films at TFF since 2005 who were Oscar nominated as leads.  Additionally, if that actor won it is indicated with ***.


2005: Joaquin Phoenix/Walk the Line, Heath Ledger/Brokeback Mountain, Philip Seymour Hoffman/Capote***
2006: Forest Whitaker/The Last King of Scotland***, Peter O'Toole/Venus
2007: Daniel Day Lewis/There Will Be Blood*** (I always count this and Benjamin Button even though we only saw a portion of each film in tributes to Daniel Day Lewis and David Fincher)
2008: Brad Pitt/The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
2009: George Clooney/Up in the Air
2010: Colin Firth/The King's Speech***, Javier Bardem/Biutiful, James Franco/127 Hours
2011: Jean Dujardin/The Artist***, George Clooney/The Descendents
2012: No nominees

2013: Bruce Dern/Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
2014: Michael Keaton/Birdman, Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game, Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
2015: Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs
2016: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea***, Ryan Gosling/La La Land
2017: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour***
2018: No nominees

Notes: 22 nominees over the 14 years with seven wins.  2018 is the only year since 2005 that no TFF film had a Best Actor nominee.

Thursday we'll take a look at the History of Telluride and Best Supporting Actress.




JUDY TRAILER ARRIVES WITH A HINT OR TWO


As reported yesterday, the Judy Garland biopic starring Renee Zellweger landed a full length trailer yesterday.  Here it is from YouTube:

Included in a couple of stories I've seen is speculation as to the possibility of fall fest screenings for the film.  Andreas Wiseman writing for Deadline.com says, "We've heard that there's a good chance the the movie could debut at Telluride."

That Deadline story in its entirety is linked here.

Meanwhile, other coverage of the trailer release is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire and The Playlist.

Judy is scheduled for release on Sept. 27th.

More from MTFB on Thursday...

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Wonderstruck Will Strike in October / First Look at Haneke's Happy End / Redoutable Teaser Gets Meta / The Future for Past Telluriders / Amazon Rewards Manchester

Welcome to Thursday on MTFB...



WONDERSTRUCK WILL STRIKE IN OCTOBER

The case for Todd Haynes being a Telluride contender got another supportive piece of evidence yesterday as the peeps at Amazon and Roadside Attractions, who have paired to distribute the film, have announced a limited release date of October 20th.   The film will then proceed to be opened wider in November.

It wasn't long yesterday before journos pointed out that that time frame has served as the launchpad for four of the last five Oscar BP winners: Argo 10/12/12, 12 Years a Slave 10/18/13, Birdman 10/17/14, and Moonlight 10/21/16.  Only Spotlight has broken that pattern opening on 11/6/15.  Of course, all of those films played Telluride on their way to the Best Picture prize.

Honestly, when I get serious about posting a rough first guess at what will make the T-ride 2017 lineup, Wonderstruck might be the film on the top of that list.

Linked below is coverage of the release announcement from:

Variety

Indiewire

Awards Watch

The Playlist

The Wrap



FIRST LOOK AT HANEKE'S HAPPY END

Another film that will be in the hunt for the Cannes' Palme d'Or in a couple of weeks (and it could be an unprecedented third for its director...lots of predictors think that's a very real possibility) is Michael Haneke's Happy End.  Haneke hasn't made a film since his last Palme winner in 2012.  Amour also won the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar.

We got our first photo from the secretive film yesterday as you see above.  The still shows, among others Isabelle Huppert, Jean-Louis Trintignant and Toby Jones.  Further coverage of the image and the film is here from Indiwire and here from The Playlist.



REDOUBTABLE TEASER GETS META

This week we got a new glimpse of Michel Hazanavicius' newest film, Redoubtable, which is set to debut at Cannes this month in the Palme d'Or competition.  The teaser includes some references to the festival that should elicit a chuckle or two.  Check the teaser below (from YouTube):

Redoubtable is based on the life of film pioneer Jean-Luc Godard.

More on the teaser release for Redoubtable is here from Entertainment Weekly as well as here from The Playlist.

THE FUTURE FOR PAST TELLURIDERS

I've mentioned with some frequency the next project for Moonlight's Barry Jenkins which is the multi-part adaptation of Colson Whitehead's National Book Award and Pulitzer Prize winning
Underground Railroad for Amazon Studios.

In the last few days we have seen the plans of two other notable and recent past Telluriders come into focus.

Indiewire reports that Oscar winning director Damien Chazelle is lining up another musically oriented project.  The story was originally reported by The Hollywood Reporter.

Titled The Eddy, the story centers around a Paris music club.  As with Jenkins, the project is being set up as an episodic project and is being shopped around to streaming services and networks.  Reports suggest that Chazelle would direct his next feature film project, First Man starring Ryan Reynolds as Neil Armstrong, and then get to work on The Eddy.

The other news of note regarding a new project involving a recent Tellurider and Oscar winner was news yesterday that Laszlo Nemes is set to begin filming Sunset.  Nemes made a huge splash in 2015 with his debut film Son of Saul which played Cannes (winning Nemes the Grand Prix award) and then Telluride.  Son of Saul went on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.

The Playlist reports  that Sunset will begin filming next month and that the plan is that it would play Cannes which would make it a prime TFF #45 possibility.

Stay tuned.


AMAZON REWARDS MANCHESTER

How do you say thank you to a community that serves as the backdrop and title of your Oscar award winning film (and TFF #43 selection)?

Amazon Studios has gifted the citizens of Manchester, Massachusetts a year's worth of free Amazon Prime memberships.  They even threw in the popcorn.

Amazon announced the gift this week according to The Hollywood Reporter.



And that will do it for this Thursday.  Have a good weekend and come back here Monday for more...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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May I Have the Envelope Please...No, No, the Correct Envelope / Oscars Love Telluride's 2016 Lineup

Welcome to Monday


OSCARS LOVE TELLURIDE'S 2016 LINEUP


It was an insane night full of surprises large and small with the largest being the announcing of one Best Picture winner only to have that reversed in favor of a surprise upset winner.  Moonlight won Best Picture but only found out after La La Land had been announced and a number of thank you speeches had come from La La Land producers.

Here is that moment from ABC News and YouTube:

Here are your winners from the 89th Academy Awards:

Picture: Moonlight

Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land

Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight
Film Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Cinematography: La La Land

Original Score: La La Land
Original Song: City of Stars/La La Land
Animated Feature: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ: Made in America
Foreign Language Film: The Salesman
Production Design: La La Land
Costumes: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Makeup/Hair: Suicide Squad
Sound Mixing: Hacksaw Ridge

Sound Editing: Arrival
Visual Effects: The Jungle Book

Animated Short: Piper Pearl
Live Action Short: Sing
Documentary Short: The White Helmets



Moonlight wins three Oscars: Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
La La Land wins six Oscars: Best Actress, Director, Score, Song, Cinematography and Production Design
Manchester by the Sea wins two Oscars: Best Actor and Original Screenplay

Other Telluride 2016 wins Arrival for Best Sound Editing and The White Helmets for Best Short Documentary.

Telluride's 43rd iteration hosted films with 13 Oscar wins out of 42 nominations.

For the seventh straight year (and eighth of the last nine years)  the Oscar Best Picture winner has "premiered" for the first time on the North American continent at the Telluride film festival.

The FAC had a lackluster night going 15 of 24.  In the other categories, the "upset" winner listed in Thursday's post won and in six categories the winner was off the FAC altogether on Thursday.

I'm really re-thinking how or even if The FAC is viable in its current incarnation.

Past FAC results:

2016: 15/24
2015: 20/24
2014: 22/24
2013: 18/24 (25 tie in Sound Editing)
2012: 18/24
2011: 17/24
2010: 14/24

So, there's that.

Finally another huge shout out to Barry Jenkins and the entire Moonlight crew.  In all the years I've been writing about Telluride and the Oscars there has never been a truer expression of TFF in terms of the Oscar Best Picture winner than this at a number of levels and Barry's a good guy to boot.  You can't ask for a better ending than that despite the weird way that it went down.

Congratulations Barry and Mahershala and Tarell.

Now, it's time to return to the first purpose of this space which is to begin to puzzle out the films that will make their way to the San Juans over Labor Day weekend in six months time.

More on Thursday.


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The (Probably) Final FAC Predictions for Oscar #89 / Final Oscar Calls from Experts (Updated) / Late Breaking: Toronto Down to Downsize

Good Thursday to you...


THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC FOR OSCAR #89

We are just days away from the Oscars -on Sunday night on ABC- and here are the (probably) final predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  Barring some weird movement or unforeseen circumstance, this will be the last post from MTFB/FAC until Monday's regularly scheduled post.  In that, I'll do some semblance of analysis based on the results of Sunday's ceremony.

Today's predictions include updated data for the eight categories that have seemed to have been the most contentious over the past few weeks since nominations were announced:  Actor, Original Screenplay,Sound Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the three Short Form categories: Live Action, Animated and Documentary.  I also did a quick update on Best Picture.

On Oscar night itself, I'll be semi-live-tweeting.  Also probably a good deal of re-tweeting.  Check out my Twitter account @Gort2.


As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.  Categories that were deemed "Toss Ups" are indicated with ***

***LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: Enemies Interiors
Upset: Timecode
Comment: Since last week, a big surge for  Ennemis Interieurs puts it on top, marginally over Timecode.

***DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner; Joe's Violin
Upset: The White Helmets
Comment:  Last week's two leaders switch places but the metric still makes this a squeaky tight race.

***ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: Piper
Upset: Pearl
Comment:  Piper's lead has increased substantially over the past week.  Still not a lock by any means.


SOUND MIXING:
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Hacksaw Ridge

***SOUND EDITING
Winner: Hacksaw Ridge
Upset: La La Land

VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner; The Jungle Book
Upset: Rogue One

***MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Star Trek Beyond
Upset: A Man Called Ove

***COSTUMES
Winner: Jackie
Upset: La La Land
Comment:  Jackie has opened up a slight, but real,  lead in this category.  La La Land could still sneak a win here, however.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival or Fantastic Beasts

ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: City of Stars/La La Land
Upset: Could come from Moana or Trolls

ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight or Lion

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Winner: The Salesman
Upset: Toni Erdmann

ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Zootopia
Upset: Kubo and the Two Strings

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: OJ: Made in America
Upset: 13th or I Am Not Your Negro

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Lion

FILM EDITING
Winner: La La Land
Upset: Arrival

***ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Manchester by the Sea
Upset: La La Land
Comment: Manchester has moved into a more secure position in the last week.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Moonlight
Upset: Arrival

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Upset: Dev Patel/Lion

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Viola Davis/Fences
Upset: Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

***ACTOR
Winner: Denzel Washington/Fences
Upset: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Comment: Still a whisker thin margin for Washington.

ACTRESS
Winner: Emma Stone/La La Land
Upset: Isabelle Huppert/Elle

DIRECTOR

Winner: Damien Chazelle / La La Land
Upset: Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

BEST PICTURE

Winner: La La Land
Upset: Moonlight
Comment: Other possible upset players: Hidden Figures, Manchester by the Sea and Lion

Expected win totals:

La La Land 9
Moonlight 2
Fences 2
 No other film with more than a single win.

TFF #43 films with 13 wins.

A last thought.  I'm feeling a bit of  an intuition that La La Land might actually upset in both Original Screenplay and Costumes.


 FINAL OSCAR CALLS FROM THE EXPERTS (UPDATED)

Here the FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS from various experts.  I WILL BE UPDATING this section through Sunday:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis (and Friends)/Awards Circuit

Awards Daily

Film School Rejects

Awards Watch Podcast

Gold Derby

Metacritic

Movie City News Gurus of Gold

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Indiewire Critics Survey

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Jason Osiason/Fantastic Film Fans




LATE BREAKING: TORONTO TO DOWNSIZE

There are multiple reports that the Torotno International Film Festival is going to shrink its feature film lineup by about 20% or from approximately 300 films down to 240ish.

Here's that story from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Playlist



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The FAC's Oscar Predix for Six Categories / BAFTA Names Its Winners

Monday...Monday...take that as you will...



THE FAC'S OSCAR PREDIX FOR SIX CATEGORIES

We're coming down to the home stretch of Oscar Season.  The BAFTA's were handed out in London last night (see below) and that's the last piece of evidence pointing us in any direction for what might happen on Oscar night itself.

Oscar final voting begins today and runs to Feb. 21.  Of course, the envelopes are opened on Feb. 26. with today's installment of The FAC I'll have completed a set of predictions for all 24 categories in the last week.  I'll update categories as we move through the next two weeks and have a final posting update in the Thursday, Feb. 23 posting.  That said...

Here are the Oscar winner predictions for the last six categories that The FAC hasn't addressed in this last week: Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and the Shorts: Animated, Documentary and Live Action.

As always The FAC uses the published predictions of the following experts to derive its picks:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

TFF #43 films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) La La Land
2) Lion
3) Moonlight
4) Arrival
5) Silence

Comment: Despite Lion's ASC win last week, La La Land seems fairly secure for the win here.


COSTUMES

1) La La Land
2) Jackie
3) Florence Foster Jenkins
4) Fantastic Beasts
5) Allied

Comment: La La leads here but it's a tight race with Jackie.  This is one of about three or four categories (the others are probably Original Screenplay, Sound Editing and Cinematography) that will determine whether La La Land gets double-digit wins, ties for most Oscars won of all time (11) or, conceivably, breaks the record.



MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Star Trek Beyond
2) A Man Called Ove
3) Suicide Squad

Comment: A moderately close contest between Star Trek and Ove with the Treksters having a sight edge.


ANIMATED SHORT

1) Piper
2) Pearl
3) Borrowed Time
4) Blind Vaysha
5) Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Comment: This is perceived as a tight two horse race between Piper and Pearl.  Off The FAC metric...I wouldn't be stunned by a win from either or even Borrowed Time.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The White Helmets
2) Joe's Violin
3) 4.1 Miles
4) Extremis
5) Watani: My Homeland

Comment: A dead heat between The White Helmets and Joe's Violin and that's no exaggeration.  The two films were tied in The FAC metric with the tie broken in The White Helmets favor as it had one more pick at the top from The FAC professionals.  This Oscar could easily swing to either film.


LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Silent Nights
2) Sing
3) Timecode
4) Ennemis Interieurs
5) Le Femme et le TVG

Comment: The predictions in this category are all over the place.  Any of the five could win.

Should The FAC be 100% accurate, La La Land would win another two trophies and added to the previous FAC predictions over this past week would give it a total of 10 trophies on Oscar night: Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Costumes, Production Design and Sound Mixing.

La La would miss, according to the FAC, in Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Best Actor and its other Original Song nomination.  The loss to itself for Best Song means that 13 Oscars are the ceiling for La La and the loss of Ryan Gosling in the Best Actor category seems all but certain (to either Denzel Washington or Casey Affleck).  That means that La La Land has to run the table of every one of its remaining nominations to set the all time record which seems a tall order.

I've been saying for a long while that I think La La Land ends the night with nine Oscars.  A great night, but not record setting.  Still, it would be the most since 2003's Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

Currently The FAC has La La Land winning 10 Oscars.

Moonlight wins two.
Fences wins two.

Single Oscar winning films look to be:

Manchester by the Sea
Zootopia
O.J.: Made in America
The Salesman
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Star Trek Beyond

And the Shorts: Piper, The White Helmets and Silent Nights.

Total Oscars going to TFF #43 films: 14.


BAFTA NAMES ITS WINNERS

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (sometimes referenced as the British Oscars) awarded their accolades for the 2016 film year last night (which was late afternoon here in the states).

Damien Chazelle's La La Land did well but it wasn't the blowout that the Golden Globes night was for the film.  La La Land picked up five of the 11 BAFTA's it was nominated for.  Of course, the five wins did include the biggest prize of the night: Best Picture.  La La Land also won for Chazelle's direction and Emma Stone won Best Actress.  It also won for Score and Cinematography.

Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea won two honors for Original Screenplay and for Casey Affleck as Best Actor.

Denis Villeneuve's Arrival won the award for Best Sound (a trophy that many thought La La Land might well pick up.

Barry Jenkins' Moonlight surprisingly went home empty-handed.  The film had been nominated for four BAFTAs.

Lion was the other surprise of the night winning two awards for Dev Patel as Best Supporting Actor and also winning for Adapted Screenplay.

Major (Oscar analogous categories) winners here with TFF #43 films in Bold.

Picture: La La Land
Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land
Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land
Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis/Fences
Supporting Actor: Dev Patel/Lion
Adapted Screenplay: Lion
Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
Documentary: 13th
Foreign Language: Son of Saul (TFF #42)
Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings
Original Music: La La Land
Cinematography: La La Land
Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
Production Design: Fantastic Beasts
Costumes: Jackie
Makeup/Hair: Florence Foster Jenkins
Sound: Arrival
Visual Effects; The Jungle Book


What does any of this mean for Oscar night?
Does it mean that La La Land is likely to fall short in film editing, production, design, costume or film editing?
Does Moonlight get shut out on Feb. 26th?

Most of the pundits seem to think that the BAFTA results might show a smallish trend away from the La La Land avalanche but that it's still solid for a number of wins including picture and director.  It does seem less likely that it will tie or break the record of winning 11 trophies.

BAFTA coverage is here:

from Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

from Anne Thompson/Indiewire

from Pete Hammond/Deadline

from Paul Sheehan/Gold Derby

from Oliver Lyttleton/The Playlist

from Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience



That's a wrap for Monday.  More to come on Thursday...


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The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) First Look at Predicted Oscar Winners / Directors and DPs Diverge / Berlin Looms

You might notice that this is a Monday and we're still here...

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE FIRST LOOK AT PREDICTED OSCAR WINNERS

Here's your first look at where The FAC thinks will shake down when the envelopes are opened at the Oscar ceremony on Feb. 26th.

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.


BEST PICTURE

1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Manchester by the Sea
4) Hidden Figures
5) Arrival
6) Lion
7) Hacksaw Ridge
8) Hell or High Water
9) Fences

Comment:  The top award has seemed and continues to seem the prohibitive favorite for La La Land. I thought that was true over Labor Day (and shared that thought with one of the experts listed above). Despite its lack of a SAG ensemble nomination...won by Hidden Figures, which appears to have gotten a boost among the predictors...La La Land is a unanimous #1 pick for Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival
5) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Comment:  Chazelle's DGA win all but signals that he's a lock here.  It also appears very likely that we'll get back to "normal" this year and that Best Film and Director will correspond with each other after three out of the for years of busting that trend:

2016: Best Pic: Spotlight, Best Dir: Inarritu/The Revenant
2014: Best Pic: 12 Years a Slave, Best Dir: Cuaron/Gravity
2013: Best Pic: Argo, Best Dir: Ang Lee/Life of Pi


BEST ACTRESS

1) Emma Stone/La La Land
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie
3) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins
5) Ruth Negga/Loving

Comment:  A race that has been perceived as a tight battle between Stone and Portman has taken a solid turn towards Stone.  In many quarters, Portman isn't perceived as the biggest threat to Stone, Huppert might be and neither is being seen as very threatening.


BEST ACTOR

1) Denzel Washington/Fences
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Comment: This was seen as a tight race in early fall and then Affleck started winning almost every critics award making him a solid favorite but Denzel's win a SAG turned that all around this last week and now this category is perceived as barn burner.  In The FAC metric they two men are separated by a single point.  It's close, my friends.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Viola Davis/Fences
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Comment:  The world will come to an end if Davis isn't the winner here.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
3) Dev Patel/Lion
4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

Comment:  Ali is the strong favorite.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Moonlight
2) Arrival
3) Hidden Figures
4) Fences
5) Lion

Comment" Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney look like solid leaders here.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Manchester by the Sea 
2) La La Land
3) Hell or High Water
4) The Lobster
5) 20th Century Women

Comment:  Our second squeaker.  A single point separates Manchester and La La Land in this category.  For those passionate about whether La La Land ties or passes the all time record for Oscar wins (11 is the record held by Ben Hur, Titanic and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) this category is probably crucial.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Moonlight
4) Hacksaw Ridge
5) Hell or High Water

Comment:  La La Land is a substantial leader here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Zootopia
2) Kubo and the Two Strings
3) Moana
4) The Red Turtle
5) My Life as a Zucchini

Comment;  Any other winner but Zootopia would be a big upset.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) OJ: Made in America
2) 13th
3) Life, Animated
4) I am Not Your Negro
5) Fire at Sea

Comment:  OJ: MIA is a solid favorite but I think it may still vulnerable to the perception that it isn't really a "feature".

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Salesman
2) Toni Erdmann
3) Land of Mine
4) A Man Called Ove
5) Tanna

Comment:  What a difference an unconstitutional executive order can make.  Throughout the fall Toni Erdmann has been seen as the most likely FLF Oscar winner but with the White House's Travel ban on seven Muslim majority nations and The Salesman's Asghar Farhadi's decision to stay away from the Oscars, The Salesman has zoomed past Toni Erdmann to become the leader in this category.

It's not a prohibitive lead, so Toni Erdmann could still take the trophy home, but that's nit where I'd put my money if I where the wagering type.

If you're counting...from these 12 categories...

La La Land would win four Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress and Editing.
Moonlight would win two: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea would win one: Original Screenplay

Non TFF #43 films would win:

Fences (two): Actor and Supporting Actress
and Animated: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ:MIA
Foreign Language: The Salesman


I'll have a look at more categories on Thursday.



DIRECTORS AND DP'S DIVERGE

The Directors Guild of America named Damien Chazelle the winner of their highest honor for feature films on Saturday as was expected but the American Society of Cinematographers surprised with a win for Lion for Best Cinematography.

Oscar predictors have been bullish that La La Land was the likely winner in that category but with the A.S.C. win for Greig Fraser that consensus will likely change.

I noticed yesterday, however that Variety/In Contention's guru Kristopher Tapley was suggesting via Twitter that he still thought that La La Land would probably still win the Oscar in that category.  I'm inclined to agree with Tapley because of the difference in the people that will be casting ballots.

Here is coverage of the DGA Awards:

from Greg Kilday at The Hollywood Reporter

from Gregory Ellwood at The The Playlist

from Anne Thompson at Indiewire

and from The Gold Derby

Additionally, here is coverage of the A.S.C. awards from Bill Desowitz at Indiewire.



BERLIN LOOMS

The Berlin International Film Festival launches this week (Feb. 9-19) and almost certainly will World Premiere a film or two that we'll see on the slate of TFF #44 in September.  Last year, as an example, both Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco Rosi's Oscar nominated Fire at Sea made their way from Germany to southwestern Colorado.

So, naturally, I take the Berlin lineup seriously as a source of possible Telluride films and this year has some prime candidates.  I was perusing a Playlist article over the weekend that highlights 10 films from the Berlin lineup that have serious Telluride potential based on the past presence of their directors at TFF.

They include:

Sally Potter's The Party.  Potter was previously represented at Telluride in 2012 with Ginger and Rosa.

Volker Sclondorff's Return to Montauk.  Schlondorff was a tribute recipient in 2014 and guest directed last year's fest.

Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope.  Kaurismaki's Le Harve was presented at Telluride in 2011.

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman.  Lelio's Gloria was on the TFF bill of fare in 2013.

Agneiszka Holland's Spoor.  Holland was at Telluride in 2011 with Darkness and 2013 with Burning Bush.

The complete story from The Playlist is here.


That's a wrap for Monday.  More for you on Thursday...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Updates for Oscar / Sundance Sails into the Sunset / Jenkins on Moonlight

Welcome to Thursday and another day on this cinematic road...


UPDATES FOR OSCAR

We are a week removed from the announcement of nominations for the 89th Academy Awards and, as you might expect, Oscar prognosticators are beginning to offer their opinions regarding what performers and films will now actually win the statues in 3 -plus weeks.  The ceremony happens on Feb. 26th.

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has a first pass at predicted winners.

Scott currently has Damien Chazelle's La La Land still in front to win despite the success of Hidden Figures at last weekend's Screen Actors Guilds awards.  Additionally, Feinberg says La La Land will also win: Direction (Chazelle), Actress (Stone), Cinematography, Costumes, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing for a total of  11 Oscars. Personally, I'm not as bullish on La La Land's chances to get to that total.

Feinberg also currently has TFF #43 films winning in a few other places on Oscar night.

He has Moonlight winning Supporting Actor (Ali) and Adapted Screenplay.

He has Manchester by the Sea winning Original Screenplay but now favors Denzel Washington/Fences  over Manchester's Casey Affleck for Best Actor.

A few other notes.  Feinberg favors Asghar Farhadi's The Salesman in the Foreign Language category over what has been regarded as the front runner for many months and that's TFF #43 and Maren Ade's Toni Erdmann.

Feinberg doesn't mention it and I have been reluctant to mention it as well, but I have wondered if there might be a surge for The Salesman in light of the Trump administration's  Muslim ban and Farhadi's announced intention to not attend the Oscar ceremony.  I think that's a very real possibility and it seems that Feinberg may be thinking that as well.

Among the Short Film categories, Feinberg has The White Helmets winning Best Short Doc.  It also played TFF last Labor Day.

All told, Feinberg has Telluride films winning 15 of the 24 Oscar categories.


Additionally, Variety's head Oscar guru, Kristopher Tapley, also has an initial pass at winners up at his In Contention section of that publication/website.  His take:

He has La La Land winning Best Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Production Design and sound Mixing.  Total: 11

Moonlight winning: Supporting Actor with Ali and Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester winning: Best Actor for Affleck.

Tapley has Toni Erdmann winning Best Foreign Language Film bit doesn't have any TFF #43 films picking up any Oscar hardware for the Shorts categories.

His Telluride total is 15.

Check all of Tapley's predictions here.


Meanwhile, the gang at Awards Watch led by Erik Anderson has their first wave of picks for winners up as well.   You can see their complete list and tally here.

Awards Watch predicts that La La Land will win Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Original Score, Original Song (City of Stars), Sound Mixing and maybe Film Editing...based on AW's nomination predictions for that category.  Total for La La Land according to AW: 11

Moonlight is picked for Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Manchester by the Sea's Casey Affleck is favored over Denzel for Best Actor

Other TFF #43 films favored by AW: Toni Erdmann for Foreign Language and The White Helmets for Best Short Doc.

The AW Oscar total for Telluride is 16.


SUNDANCE SAILS INTO THE SUNSET

The Sundance Film Festival closed last weekend and that's always at least a little bit interesting.  For years it's seemed like there are always rumors that one of more Sundance film swill end up on the Telluride program even though that "rule" about T-ride only programming films that have not yet screened in North America.

We know that rumors floated early this time last year that Fox Searchlight was going to push hard to get Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation into T-ride after spending $17+ million bucks.  We also know that didn't pan out almost certainly due to the PR swirl and negative publicity up regarding Parker's past.

BUT...Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress both made the TFF #43 list after having bowed at Sundance marking, at least in my experience, the first time that two films were programmed that bucked the "rule".  I have noted on a number of occasions that The Savages did the same in 2007 as did An Education in 2009.  Sembene! did in 2015.

I think we have to wonder if the 2016 presence of two Sundance titles indicates a growing willingness to program a hot Sundance title or two from now on.

It might also be noted that both Manchester and Eagle did NOT play Cannes after their bow at Sundance.

So, looking at this year's Sundance crop, can we deduce any films that might fit the mold to go to Telluride?

I took a look at the films that earned Sundance honors and critical acclaim as well as what films sold to which distributors and finally, the directors.  Keep in mind that Manchester ended up at Amazon/Roadside Attractions and Eagle Huntress  which was distributed by Sony Pictures Classics.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted a story this week assessing the films of Sundance in the context of the 2017 awards season.  Zack Sharf, also of Indiewire, posted and updated a running list of the acquisitions for the fest.  So, I combined the two...

Call Me By My Name - Dir: Luca Guadagnino-Sony Pictures Classics
The Big Sick- Dir: Michael Showalter- Amazon (and likely Roadside Attractions)
Mudbound- Dir: Dee Rees- Netflix
Novitiate- Dir: Margaret Betts- Sony Pictures Classics
The Hero- Dir: Brett Haley- The Orchard

Documentaries:
City of Ghosts- Dir: Matthew Heineman- Amazon
Icarus- Dir: Bryan Fogel- Netflix
An Inconvenient Sequel: Dir- Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk- Paramount
Chasing Coral- Dir: Jeff Orlowski- Netflix

 It's also worth noting that A24 has the distribution for A Ghost Story from director David Lowery.

Looking at the combined lists, I can't find any single film that seems head and shoulders a likely Sundance/Telluride crossover.  None of the directors have a feature TFF track record.


JENKINS ON MOONLIGHT

I have added a couple of articles that feature Moonlight writer/director Barry Jenkins talking about the making of the eight time Oscar nominated film that is widely regarded as the only real threat to steal Best Picture from La La Land.  Here they are:

From the Film Society of Lincoln Center

From The Playlist


That's all for this Thursday.  Have a great weekend...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Telluride Sets a Record: Oscar Nominations with a Bit of Commentary / Frantz Leads in France / Now What?

Good Thursday to you...

TELLURIDE SETS A RECORD: OSCAR NOMINATIONS WITH A BIT OF COMMENTARY

Telluride #43 film nominations are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

BEST DIRECTION

Damien Chazelle/La La Land

Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins/Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve/Arrival

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert/Elle
Ruth Negga/Loving

Natalie Portman/Jackie

Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins

Emma Stone/La La Land

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling/La La Land

Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington/Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis/Fences

Naomie Harris/Moonlight

Nicole Kidman/Lion

Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali/Moonlight

Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel/Lion

Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures
Lion

Moonlight

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

20^th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

The Salesman

ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

DOCUMENTARY

13^th

Fire at Sea

I am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

OJ: Made in America

ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion
Moonlight

Passengers

ORIGINAL SONG

Audition/La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling/Trolls

City of Stars/La La Land

How Far I’ll Go/Moana

The Empty Chair/James Foley Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts

Hail, Caesar

La La Land

Passengers

COSTUMES

Allied

Fantastic Beasts

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

MAKEUP/HAIR

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

SOUND MIXING
13 Hours

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Ennemis Interiuers
Le Femme et le TVG

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The White Helmets
Joe's Violin
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Watani: My Homeland

ANIMATED SHORT
Piper
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear and Cider Cigarettes
Pearl

Comment:

La La Land leads all films with 14  nominations

Arrival had 8

Moonlight had 8

Manchester by the Sea had 6

The total of "Telluride" nominations was 42 which makes this the most Oscar-y year for Telluride since I've been keeping track and probably since the beginning of the fest.

Oh, and it almost certainly means that on Oscar night that Best Picture will have come through Telluride once again continuing a trend that has been true every year, except for 2009. since Slumdog Millionaire in 2008.

08-Slumdog
09- The Hurt Locker
10- The King's Speech
11- The Artist
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight

Will/Can La La Land surpass Slumdog's haul of 8 Oscars?  It's possible.  I wrote last week that, should it hit the 14 nomination plateau (tying the all time Oscar record along with Titanic and All About Eve) that, at least at that moment, The FAC was pointing toward nine wins for the film.

Early favorites for Oscar include: Actress: Stone, Actor: Affleck, Supporting Actress: Davis, Supporting Actor: Ali

Other favorites by film:

La La Land: Picture, Direction, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Song, Production Design and Sound Mixing (Total -9)

Moonlight: Adapted Screenplay (Total-2)

Manchester by the Sea-Original Screenplay (2)

Toni Erdmann: Foreign Language

The White Helmets: Short Doc


For non-Telluride films:

Zootopia: Animated Feature

OJ: Made in America: Documentary

Jackie: Costumes

Florence Foster Jenkins: Makeup/Hair

Hacksaw Ridge: Sound Editing

The Jungle Book: Visual Effects

Silent Nights: Live Action Short

Piper: Animated Short



Other nominations for TFF #43 films came individually for Sully, Toni Erdmann, Fire at Sea and shorts: The White Helmets, Extremis and 4.1 Miles.

The FAC went 100 of 122 for an 82% rate of correct predictions.  It was perfect in Best Picture (9/9), Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Animated Feature and Costumes. In categories where The FAC missed one or more nominees the sixth film listed made the grade in nine categories: Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Foreign Language Film, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Live Action Short, Animated Short, Makeup/Hair (actually that's the #4 spot) and Production Design.

The biggest surprises to me were the Amy Adams miss in Best Actress and also the miss by Inner Workings in Animated Short.  I was also surprised that Passengers popped up in Original Score and Production Design.

I have linked analysis from the experts here:

Kristopher Tapley/Variety-In Contention

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Eric Kohn/Indiwire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson/Screen Talk (podcast)

FRANTZ LEADS IN FRANCE

The French version of The Oscar...The Cesar nominations were announced this week and TFF #43 film Frantz led the way with 11 nominations including Best Picture.  Frantz was tied for the most nominations by Elle.  Among Elle's 11 nominations was a Best Actress nod for past Telluride tribute recipient Isabelle Huppert.  Huppert was featured at last September's fest with with a screening of Things to Come.

Kenneth Lonergan's 6 time Oscar nominated Manchester by the Sea was nominated for Best Foreign Film.  Both La La Land and Moonlight weren't eligible for that category as they didn't or won't open in France until after the first of the year.  Other TFF # films nominated for Foreign Language Film were Graduation and Toni Erdmann.  Fire at Sea was nominated for Best Documentary.

Complete Cesar coverage is here from Awards Watch.

NOW WHAT?

Well...the Oscar nominations are in and as you can see above, it was a very successful year for Telluride in that context.  Since the fest closed on Labor Day, thus space has been largely focused on the release of the films that played the fest and the Oscar prospects for them.  Now we are on to the Oscar #89 end game over the next month the culminates with the ceremony itself on Feb. 26th.  As I have done in the past, The FAC will continue to handicap the field right up until then.  

But it's also time to begin looking forward.  

The Sundance fest has moved past its half way mark and the presence at TFF this last year of Manchester by the Sea and The Eagle Huntress, which both played at Sundance last year, makes me wonder if that situation, which admittedly has been very rare in the past, might be a little less rare going forward.  This would mean that we might have to pay a little more attention to the films that make waves in Utah.

When the Oscars conclude, there will be a slew of Oscar #90 speculative pieces.  We'll need to examine those.  The Berlin Fest looms next month.  That is often a source of a few films that make their way to T-ride and Cannes speculation will begin to ramp up ahead of its May date.  We'll need to pay attention to the critical response and awards as a way of sniffing out potential Telluride choices.

Once Cannes is completed, we get into serious Telluride speculation and prediction and look for clues, rumors and signs from the media as well as what we can discern from what's known or suspected about Toronto, Venice and New York's Fests.

That's where we'll be going right up to Labor Day weekend.  Join the ride!

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