Monday, February 6, 2017

The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) First Look at Predicted Oscar Winners / Directors and DPs Diverge / Berlin Looms

You might notice that this is a Monday and we're still here...


Here's your first look at where The FAC thinks will shake down when the envelopes are opened at the Oscar ceremony on Feb. 26th.

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Telluride #43 films are in Bold.


1) La La Land
2) Moonlight
3) Manchester by the Sea
4) Hidden Figures
5) Arrival
6) Lion
7) Hacksaw Ridge
8) Hell or High Water
9) Fences

Comment:  The top award has seemed and continues to seem the prohibitive favorite for La La Land. I thought that was true over Labor Day (and shared that thought with one of the experts listed above). Despite its lack of a SAG ensemble nomination...won by Hidden Figures, which appears to have gotten a boost among the predictors...La La Land is a unanimous #1 pick for Best Picture.


1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land
2) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight
3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea
4) Denis Villeneuve/Arrival
5) Mel Gibson/Hacksaw Ridge

Comment:  Chazelle's DGA win all but signals that he's a lock here.  It also appears very likely that we'll get back to "normal" this year and that Best Film and Director will correspond with each other after three out of the for years of busting that trend:

2016: Best Pic: Spotlight, Best Dir: Inarritu/The Revenant
2014: Best Pic: 12 Years a Slave, Best Dir: Cuaron/Gravity
2013: Best Pic: Argo, Best Dir: Ang Lee/Life of Pi


1) Emma Stone/La La Land
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie
3) Isabelle Huppert/Elle
4) Meryl Streep/Florence Foster Jenkins
5) Ruth Negga/Loving

Comment:  A race that has been perceived as a tight battle between Stone and Portman has taken a solid turn towards Stone.  In many quarters, Portman isn't perceived as the biggest threat to Stone, Huppert might be and neither is being seen as very threatening.


1) Denzel Washington/Fences
2) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea
3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land
4) Andrew Garfield/Hacksaw Ridge
5) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic

Comment: This was seen as a tight race in early fall and then Affleck started winning almost every critics award making him a solid favorite but Denzel's win a SAG turned that all around this last week and now this category is perceived as barn burner.  In The FAC metric they two men are separated by a single point.  It's close, my friends.


1) Viola Davis/Fences
2) Naomie Harris/Moonlight
3) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
4) Nicole Kidman/Lion
5) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures

Comment:  The world will come to an end if Davis isn't the winner here.


1) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
2) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
3) Dev Patel/Lion
4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals

Comment:  Ali is the strong favorite.


1) Moonlight
2) Arrival
3) Hidden Figures
4) Fences
5) Lion

Comment" Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney look like solid leaders here.


1) Manchester by the Sea 
2) La La Land
3) Hell or High Water
4) The Lobster
5) 20th Century Women

Comment:  Our second squeaker.  A single point separates Manchester and La La Land in this category.  For those passionate about whether La La Land ties or passes the all time record for Oscar wins (11 is the record held by Ben Hur, Titanic and Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King) this category is probably crucial.


1) La La Land
2) Arrival
3) Moonlight
4) Hacksaw Ridge
5) Hell or High Water

Comment:  La La Land is a substantial leader here.


1) Zootopia
2) Kubo and the Two Strings
3) Moana
4) The Red Turtle
5) My Life as a Zucchini

Comment;  Any other winner but Zootopia would be a big upset.


1) OJ: Made in America
2) 13th
3) Life, Animated
4) I am Not Your Negro
5) Fire at Sea

Comment:  OJ: MIA is a solid favorite but I think it may still vulnerable to the perception that it isn't really a "feature".


1) The Salesman
2) Toni Erdmann
3) Land of Mine
4) A Man Called Ove
5) Tanna

Comment:  What a difference an unconstitutional executive order can make.  Throughout the fall Toni Erdmann has been seen as the most likely FLF Oscar winner but with the White House's Travel ban on seven Muslim majority nations and The Salesman's Asghar Farhadi's decision to stay away from the Oscars, The Salesman has zoomed past Toni Erdmann to become the leader in this category.

It's not a prohibitive lead, so Toni Erdmann could still take the trophy home, but that's nit where I'd put my money if I where the wagering type.

If you're counting...from these 12 categories...

La La Land would win four Oscars: Picture, Director, Actress and Editing.
Moonlight would win two: Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay
Manchester by the Sea would win one: Original Screenplay

Non TFF #43 films would win:

Fences (two): Actor and Supporting Actress
and Animated: Zootopia
Documentary: OJ:MIA
Foreign Language: The Salesman

I'll have a look at more categories on Thursday.


The Directors Guild of America named Damien Chazelle the winner of their highest honor for feature films on Saturday as was expected but the American Society of Cinematographers surprised with a win for Lion for Best Cinematography.

Oscar predictors have been bullish that La La Land was the likely winner in that category but with the A.S.C. win for Greig Fraser that consensus will likely change.

I noticed yesterday, however that Variety/In Contention's guru Kristopher Tapley was suggesting via Twitter that he still thought that La La Land would probably still win the Oscar in that category.  I'm inclined to agree with Tapley because of the difference in the people that will be casting ballots.

Here is coverage of the DGA Awards:

from Greg Kilday at The Hollywood Reporter

from Gregory Ellwood at The The Playlist

from Anne Thompson at Indiewire

and from The Gold Derby

Additionally, here is coverage of the A.S.C. awards from Bill Desowitz at Indiewire.


The Berlin International Film Festival launches this week (Feb. 9-19) and almost certainly will World Premiere a film or two that we'll see on the slate of TFF #44 in September.  Last year, as an example, both Mia Hansen-Love's Things to Come and Gianfranco Rosi's Oscar nominated Fire at Sea made their way from Germany to southwestern Colorado.

So, naturally, I take the Berlin lineup seriously as a source of possible Telluride films and this year has some prime candidates.  I was perusing a Playlist article over the weekend that highlights 10 films from the Berlin lineup that have serious Telluride potential based on the past presence of their directors at TFF.

They include:

Sally Potter's The Party.  Potter was previously represented at Telluride in 2012 with Ginger and Rosa.

Volker Sclondorff's Return to Montauk.  Schlondorff was a tribute recipient in 2014 and guest directed last year's fest.

Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope.  Kaurismaki's Le Harve was presented at Telluride in 2011.

Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman.  Lelio's Gloria was on the TFF bill of fare in 2013.

Agneiszka Holland's Spoor.  Holland was at Telluride in 2011 with Darkness and 2013 with Burning Bush.

The complete story from The Playlist is here.

That's a wrap for Monday.  More for you on Thursday...


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