A LOOK AT "INTERESTING CATEGORIES"
I the last post here, I divided the 24 Oscar categories into roughly thirds...roughly, and I labeled them Locks, Interesting and Toss Ups. I'm updating those in the "Interesting" category today to see of there has been any movement into either of the categories or if they've remained "interesting". On Thursday, I'll post The (Probably) Final FAC that will include updates of entire group of 24 categories with extra emphasis on puzzling out any movement in the Toss Up categories.
The nine "Interesting" categories are: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Animated Feature, Original Song, Film Editing, Cinematography and Production Design. Here's the latest updated skinny on them.
Supporting Actor-Despite Dev Patel's win at BAFTA last week, the experts still have Mahershala Ali comfortably in the lead for his role in Moonlight.
Adapted Screenplay- Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney's Moonlight script looks like it hasn't suffered any loss of momentum. Though the script for Lion has moved from the bottom spot in the experts ranking to a second place spot just in front of Arrival.
Foreign Language Film- The turn in this category because of the travel ban coming from the Trump administration continues to influence how the experts say Oscar voters are going to go in this category. The Salesman maintains a recent solid lead with Toni Erdmann trailing off even a bit more over the past week and a bit of a surge for A Man Called Ove.
Documentary Feature- O.J.: Made in America maintains a solid lead with a bit of a surge for I am Not Your Negro.
Animated Feature- Kubo's BAFTA win has only eaten marginally into Zootopia's perceived dominance.
Original Song- Apparently everyone clucks about vote splitting between the two nominated songs from La La Land and no one thinks that it's actually going to happen. Exactly one of the nine experts I use says How Far I'll Go/Moana wins (Anne Thompson/Indiewire) and the rest say City of Stars/La La Land.
Film Editing- Hacksaw Ridge has moved into a more competitive position after its BAFTA win but every one of the Oscarologists listed above thinks La La Land wins this Sunday night.
Cinematography- Lion's ASC win doesn't seem to have this category very much. Still very solid for La La Land.
Production Design- Fantastic Beasts' win at BAFTA has boosted it to the #2 spot in The FAC but a large majority of FAC experts still say La La Land.
So...
Despite my listing these nine categories as interesting and allowing for a week of contemplation, The FAC seems relatively confident that La La Land will win: Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Song and Production Design among these nine categories which, when added to what we think are already "Locked" wins: Picture, Director, Actress, Score and Sound Mixing put it at nine Oscars.
That means that one win in the Toss Up categories gets it to double digit wins, two ties the all time record and three sets a new record of 12 wins. La La Land is in four Toss Up races: Best Actor, Original Screenplay, Costumes and Sound Editing. Its chances of winning any of those in order of likelihood are: Original Screenplay, Costumes. Sound Editing and Actor is least likely.
Moonlight looks good for two Oscars for Ali as Supporting Actor and Jenkins and McCraney.
Again, fully a fully updated FAC is coming your way Thursday with the (probably) final predictions for the 89th Oscars.
WRITERS GUILD HONORS TELLURIDE FILMS TIMES TWO
It appears that TFF #43 was a good fest to be a writer that was a part of the lineup as the WGA named Moonlight by Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney the Best Original Script of the Years (it's in the Adapted category for Sunday night's Oscars) and Eric Heisserer's Arrival the Best Adapted Screenplay of the year in ceremonies held last night in both New York and Los Angeles.
Because of Moonlight's opposite categorization for Oscar, the WGA results likely don't tell us very much about what's going to happen Sunday night in the close, close, close Original category. Had Manchester by the Sea or La La Land prevailed last night, we might have a had a clue but what we did find out is that Moonlight, as we have suspected, seems like a very good bet to win the Adapted category on Sunday night.
WGA stories and analysis are here:
from Awards Daily.
from Variety.
from The Hollywood Reporter.
BERLIN ANALYSIS
Welp...The Berlinale is over with awards passed and critical notice taken. Which should lead serious Telluride watchers to ponder what films from Berlin will appear on the TFF #44 program when it is announced on Aug. 31?
That there will be one, two or even three Berlin titles at TFF #43 seems very likely as that has been a trend for awhile. Take note...
Berlin's presence in Telluride's recent programs:
2016: Fire at Sea (Golden Bear winner), Things to Come
2015: Taxi (Golden Bear winner), 45 Years, Ixcanul
2014: 50 Year Argument, '71, The Decent One, Diplomacy
2013: Gloria, Fifi Howls from Happiness, Le Maison de la Radio, Slow Food Story, On Death Row
2012: Barbara, A Royal Affair
2011: Forgiveness of Blood, Mondo Lux, Pina, A Separation (Golden Bear winner), Target, The Turin Horse
2010: Daniel Schmid, If I Want to Whistle I Whistle, The Illusionist
2009: Gigante, London River
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky, I've Lover You So Long
2007: The Counterfeiters
So what made waves at Berlin that we might think make the T-ride lineup? Start with the Golden Bear winner Ildiko Enyedi's On Body and Soul. The last two Golden Bear winners have played Telluride (Fire at Sea and Taxi) but On Body and Soul has no current U.S. distribution and we may be in a more common year where the Golden Bear does not play Telluride.
So what else? Angneiska Holland's Spoor won the Silver Bear and Holland has been a Telluride participant before: Burning Bush, In Darkness. So that seems like a real possibility.
Sebastian Lelio's A Fantastic Woman won the Screenplay prize and Lelio has a recent T-ride profile with Gloria in 2013.
Three other competition films to keep an eye out for are Volker Schlondorff's Return to Montauk,
Sally Potter's The Party and Aki Kaurismaki's The Other Side of Hope which win the prize for Best Direction.
I'll be keeping an eye on these five films (and perhaps one or two others) in terms of U.S. distribution and announced release dates here in the states.
300,000
Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse blew through its 300,000th view over the weekend. Thanks to everyone for reading. It's difficult for me to believe the overall number and that MTFB/FAC went from the 250,000 mark to 300,000 in less than six months (we hit 250,000 on Sept. 1. 2015).
Unbelievable.
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