Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
TELLURIDE TIME TRAVEL- THE 11TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL
I'm continuing my TFF history project in today's post includes a quick look back at the 11th Telluride Film Festival. TFF #11 occurred on Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 1984. Highlights:
Tribute Recipients were: Henry Hathaway, Janet Leigh and Andrzej Wajda.
SHOWS:
Act of Violence
Almonds and Raisins
America and Lewis Hine
Camila
Cheaters
Coup De Torchon
Everything for Sale
Full Moon in Paris
Go Masters
Go Tell It on the Mountain
The Holy Innocents
L'Hirondelle et la Mesange
The Last Campaign
Lonely Hearts
Love in Germany
Maidstone
Man of Flowers
Milky Way
Mishima: A Life in Four Chapters
My First Wife
Paris, Texas
Peter Ibbetson
A Poet in the Cinema: Andrey Tarkovsky
Providence
Raw Deal
Reign of Terror
Repo Man
Slightly Scarlett
Steaming
Stranger than Paradise
Sunday in the Country
The Times of Harvey Milk
To the Last Man
Where the Green Ants Dream
Wooden Crosses
Participants (partial list):
Ry Cooder
Athol Fugard
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Klaus Kinski
Jessica Lange
Norman Mailer
Sam Sheperd
Dean Stockwell
Bertrand Travernier
Harry Dean Stanton
Wim Wenders
TFF #11 became an important fest to remember this year with the death of Harry Dean Stanton.
LOOKING BACK AT LAST YEAR'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Every year after the Oscar ceremony ends, there are some pundits who turn the page very quickly and predict possible players for the Oscar race a year out. I scour those for clues about films that could become Telluride invitees.
I thought today, with Oscar 2018 less than a month away, it might be interesting to see what that looked like. For example, in my Mar. 2, 2017 post I included a link to an Awards Circuit story that named 50 anticipated films.
From that list I named Downsizing, Battle of the Sexes and Wonderstruck as TFF possibilities (and they have zero nominations between them). I also incorrectly guessed The Current War, Suburbicon and Molly's Game.
A more Oscar specific Awards Circuit article was referenced on Mar. 9th.
I culled that list of films and named possible TFF films which included: Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Wonderstruck, Lean on Pete and The Shape of Water.
And Glenn Whipp took a stab for the L.A. Times which I evaluated and named Downsizing, Wonderstruck and hinted at Darkest Hour.
So as we move to the end of Oscar season, know this...there will be a new set of these type of articles soon and I will examine those for TFF #45 possibilities.
Good Monday to everyone and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the holiday.
MTFB LANDMARK-400,000
Over the weekend Michael's Telluride Film Blog recorded its 400,000th view. Hard for me to believe.
As always, thanks to the dedicated readers and fans of the Telluride Film Festival as well as the Oscar race that take a peek at this space from time to time. Truly unbelievable to me.
THE OSCAR LANDSCAPE
Taking a look at the Gurus of Gold charts reported this week...for Best Picture the new number one is Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird
Also in play are TFF #44 films The Shape of Water at #5 and Darkest Hour at #9.
For Best Actor the only TFF #44 Actor/Film in play is Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour who remains at #1.
For Best Supporting Actor-The Shape of Water's Richard Jenkins sits at #4
and for Best Director-Guillermo Del Toro is at #1 for The Shape of Water while Lady Bird's Greta Gerwig is at #3.
Meanwhile, Stone's own internal Awards Daily "Awards Squad" has TFF #44 films/performers listed as follows:
Best Picture: The Shape of Water at #1, Lady Bird at #4 and Darkest Hour at #9.
Best Direction: Del Toro/The Shape of Water at #2, Gerwig/Lady Bird #6
Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird #1, Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water #3, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes #7
Best Actor: Oldman/Darkest Hour #1, Christian Bale/Hostiles #10
Best Supporting Actress:Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird #2, Octavia Spencer/The Shape of Water #3, Hong Chau/Downsizing #6
Best Supporting Actor: Jenkins/The Shape of Water #6, Michael Shannon/The Shape of Water #8, Tracy Letts/Lady Bird #9
Adapted Screenplay: Wonderstruck #5, First They Killed My Father #10
Original Screenplay: Lady Bird #2, The Shape of Water #4
Film Editing: The Shape of Water #2, Darkest Hour #9, Lady Bird #11
Cinematography: The Shape of Water #3, Wonderstruck #6, Darkest Hour #7
Last Thursday I included as a part of the post a link to Indiewire's collection from 200 critics of the best films of 2017. That list was truncated but now Indiewire has posted the 50 Best Films according to that critical compilation. From that list five TFF #44 films made the grade:
at #46-Battle of the Sexes
#41-Darkest Hour
#36-Hostiles
#6-The Shape of Water
#2 Lady Bird
The Broadcast Film Critics Association announced their nominations for end of the year superlatives in both film and television on Tuesday and TFF #44 film The Shape of Water lead all films with 14 nominations. Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird was among a group of films with the second highest total of nominations with eight.
Here's the rundown of all 33 nominations received by films that played at Telluride in 2017:
The Shape of Water (14): Best Picture, Actress-Sally Hawkins, Supporting Actress-Octavia Spencer, Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins), Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Score and Best SciFi/Horror Film.
Lady Bird (8): Best Picture, Actress-Saoirse Ronan, Supporting Actress-Laurie Metcalf, Ensemble, Direction, Actress in a Comedy-Ronan and Best Comedy Film
Darkest Hour (4): Best Picture, Actor-Gary Oldman, Makeup and Score
Battle of the Sexes (2) Best Actress in a Comedy(Emma Stone), Best Actor in a Comedy (Steve Carell)
Downsizing (1): Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau)
Wonderstruck (1): Best Young Actor/Actress (Millicent Simmonds)
Loving Vincent (1): Best Animated Feature
A Fantastic Woman (1): Best Foreign Language Film
First They Killed My Father (1): Best Foreign Language Film
Other films that snagged eight nominations were: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk and The Post. Blade Runner 2049 had seven nominations.
The announcements were something of a bounce back for The Shape of Water which had not gotten much love in earlier key announcements from the National Board of Review or the New York or Los Angeles film critics organizations.
I was also personally thrilled to see Richard Jenkins name among the Supporting Actor nominees for The Shape of Water as I have been stumping for his inclusion since the lights came up after the film screened in Telluride back over Labor Day weekend.
Sad, though, that my other awards choice, Harry Dean Stanton in the non-Telluride film Lucky, didn't land a nod for Best Actor.
The next big awards splash happens later today with the announcement of accolades from The American Film Institute. Then, next Tuesday, Golden Globe nominations will be revealed.
The Critic's Choice Awards will be handed out on Jan. 11th at 8:00om EST on The CW network.
TFF #45 ANYONE?
The Playlist has dropped the annual 100 Most Anticipated Films list. That was posted on Tuesday.
I have made it a habit over the last several years to use that list as a starting point for serious TFF speculation for the upcoming year. Sure, we're nine months away from Labor Day weekend 2018 and a lot can change between now and then but, hey, "why not take a shot?" says I.
Last year when the list came out I named 20 films that might make the TFF #44 program. Of those 20, nine made The SHOW: A Fantastic Woman, Battle of the Sexes, Lady Bird, The Other Side of Hope, Lean on Pete, Downsizing, Loveless, The Shape of Water and Wonderstruck. An additional film that I didn't name also made The SHOW: Darkest Hour.
In 2016, from the 100 films that The Playlist mentioned, seven made the TFF lineup: Neruda, Una, Things to Come, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, La La Land and Arrival (which was titled The Story of Your Life at the time). The only film among them that I named: Neruda.
In 2015 the list included: Carol, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Suffragette and Spotlight which I included on my Telluride-possibles as well as Room, 45 Years and Steve Jobs which I did not list.
In 2014 the list included: The Lunchbox, Mommy, Tracks and Wild that I didn't name for TFF but did include three films that I did pick: Birdman, Foxcatcher and Mr. Turner.
So the averages suggest that the list below will contain 4-5 films that will actually make the TFF #45 lineup (unless I replicate the success I had for this year) and the eight films total that are on the complete list of 100 films will make the T-ride program.
So...here are 20 films that appear on The Playlist's 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2018 that I think have the best shot at making it to the San Juans next Labor Day.
Initially, begin with five films that the post itself suggests could play Telluride:
#83-Mid-90's-Jonah Hill directs a coming of age comedy. Key reason it plays: Distribution from A24.
#72-The Front Runner-The true story of the downfall of Presidential aspirant Gary Hart played by Hugh Jackman and directed Jason Reitman. After running two hits through Telluride: Juno and Up in the Air, Reitman did not have Young Adult there and then did have the critical and commercial misfire Labor Day, Reitman is due for a return to his original form and consequently a return to T-ride.
#38-Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Baumbach had Margot at the Wedding at The SHOW in 2007 and the fantastic Frances Ha in 2012 (which may have helped lay the groundwork for Greta Gerwig's solo directing debut, Lady Bird) but hasn't been back since. This might be the project that marks his return.
#25-First Man-The story of astronaut Neil Armstrong from director Damien Chazelle starring Ryan Gosling (two collaborators on last year's La La Land). The high profile expected for this film plus the undeniable success of La La Land suggests that Chazelle would probably be up for a return to TFF. The picture is from Universal, however, which hasn't exactly been a familiar player at the fest over the years.
#1- If Beale Street Could Talk-The Playlist's #1 most anticipated film is Barry Jenkins' followup to his Oscar winning and Telluride debuting Moonlight. Just like The Playlist, I fully expect the film to bow at TFF #45. The film is distributed by Annapurna which is getting into the portion of the business after having been a production firm until now.
In addition to these five films I have zeroed in on another 15 that could make an appearance at Telluride:
#76-Kursk
#75-Private Life
#71-Cold War
#52-E-Book
#40-Fahrenheit 451
#31-Peterloo
#22-The Other Side f the Wind
#21-The Death and Life of John F. Donovan
#19-Sunset
#17-The Man Who Killed Don Quixote
#13-Maya
#12-Everybody Knows
#11-The Sisters Brothers
#8-Widows
#3- Roma
Let's see how many of these we actually do see when the TFF #45 schedule is unveiled on Aug. 30th.
DEADLINE TALKS TO LADY BIRD
As a part of their "Contender Series" videos, Deadline recently sat down with Greta Gerwig, Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf (all recognized with nominations from the BFCA this week) to talk about Lady Bird. Here it is from YouTube:
That's it for today. Come back for more on Monday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Each Friday, Sasha Stone, founder of Awards Daily, updates her latest Oscar forecast. As we approach the Thanksgiving holiday, I thought I'd take a quick peek at what she thinks are likely nominations regarding TFF #44 films.
Sasha is currently picking 11 major categories and she has both Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water with eight nominations from those categories:
The Shape of Water: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography and Production Design.
Darkest Hour: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design.
Lady Bird: borderline Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress.
WORMWOOD: ACADEMY SAYS IT'S NOT AN ELIGIBLE DOCUMENTARY
Errol Morris' Wormwood which was often a topic of conversation in lines at this year's TFF, will not be eligible for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar according to Indiewire's Anne Thompson.
It appears that Wormwood runs afoul of Academy rules that have been recently adopted to exclude the kind of episodic format that Wormwood is in.
Recently The Shape of Water's writer/director Guillermo Del Toro shred extensive notes about the creation of the creature at the center of his love story that was brought to life by actor Doug Jones.
SlashFilm gathered all of that together and this past week put together a story that delineates that process.
My Telluride Film Festival history project continues today with a look at the 16th Fest that occurred on Sept. 1-4, 1989.
Guest Director: Errol Morris
Tributes: Dennis Potter, Peter Greenaway, Shohei Imamura
Shows:
The Big Bang
Black Rain
Blue Remembered Hills
Born to Kill
China My Sorrow
The Cook, The Thief, His Wife and Her Lover
The Entertainer
The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
Henry: Portrait of a Serial Killer
Herdsmen of the Sun
I Went to the Dance
The Icicle Thief
La Salle de Bain
Land of Liberty
My 20th Century
My Left Foot
Mystery Train
Nuovo Cinema Paradiso
Penn and Teller Get Killed
Pennies from Heaven
Roger and Me
Solovki Power
Strapless
Super Chief: The Life and Legacy of Earl Warren
Testament
There's Always Tomorrow
The Trip to Tilsit
Trop Belle Pour Toi
Twin Peaks
Water and Power
When the Clouds Roll By
The Yellow Curse
Guests:
Mark Frost
David Hare
Screamin' Jay Hawkins
Werner Herzog
Jim Jarmusch
Penn Jillette
Chuck Jones
Daniel Day Lewis
John McNaughton
Michael Moore
Michael Ontkean
Arthur Penn
Michael Rooker
Teller
THE FAC: UPDATING THE SCREENPLAY CATEGORIES
The last Adapted Screenplay predictions from Oct. 19th:
1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) Last Flag Flying 5) Wonderstruck
Others in contention: Stronger, The Disaster Artist, First They Killed My Father Here's the latest FAC assessment of the category:
1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) The Disaster Artist
5) Last Flag Flying
Others: Wonderstruck, Stronger, Wonder Woman
The last Original Screenplay predictions:
1) Three Billboards 2) The Shape of Water 3) Darkest Hour
4) Get Out 5) Lady Bird
Other in contention: The Post, The Big Sick, I Tonya
Here are your updated Original Screenplay predictions:
1) Three Billboards 2) The Shape of Water
3) Get Out 4) Lady Bird 5) Darkest Hour
Others: The Post. The Big Sick, I, Tonya
MORE FROM GRETA GERWIG AND THE LADY BIRD CREW
Esther Zuckerman posted for The Rolling Stone this week about Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird which is tearing it up on the specialty circuit.
I said earlier this week in a Twitter conversation that it could be the sleeper in this year's Best Picture Oscar race:
I'm not the only one out there that is beginning to think it could happen as well. Here and there are Oscar experts who are beginning to think that it's a real possibility.
I think that it's going to benefit from a preferential ballot. I can see it rounding up a bunch of #1 votes but also being on a lot of Academy member's ballots in a #2 or #3 spot.
It's November and here is your first MTFB of the new month...
FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING
Oscar season continues and so does my meager attempt to predict the eventual nominees. Today's focus is on the lead acting races which were first predicted here on Oct. 12th.
As always, predicted nominees connected with TFF #44 are in Bold.
Let's get to it...
BEST ACTRESS
Here is what the last FAC set of predictions had for the Best Actress race:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards 2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margo Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Others: Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
And the updated predictions:
1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards 2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post 5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel
BEST ACTOR
From Oct. 12th:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
4) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
5) Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman
Others: Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post
And today's updated predictions:
1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread
5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.
Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post
OSCAR UPDATES FROM THE EXPERTS
Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Jason Osiason of Fantastic Film Fans (and also one of The Gold Rush Gang over at Awards Watch) have updated their Oscar predictions as of Nov. 1.
Feinberg predicts 15 categories and has the following nominations predicted for films that played at Telluride in 2017:
The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography and Score.
Lady Bird: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Cinematography and Score
Wonderstruck: Supporting Actress, Production Design, Cinematography, Score
Loving Vincent: Animated Feature
Foxtrot: Foreign Language Film
Loveless; Foreign Language Film
Downsizing: Production Design
An Inconvenient Sequel: Best Song
Osiason predicts the major eight categories including these for TFF #44 films:
The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay
Lady Bird; Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay
Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Actor
MORE INTERVIEWS WITH TFF #44 GUESTS
Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird opens tomorrow. The film, which was quite the hit at T-ride, has continued to gain fans through the rest of the fall film festival season. Writer-director Gerwig was recently interviewed by Harry Haun for Film Journal which posted it this week.
Meanwhile, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, the detailed account of the events that led to the rescue at Dunkirk, opens Thanksgiving weekend. Gary Oldman plays Winston Churchill and is widely regarded as the prohibitive favorite to pick the Best Actor Oscar next March.
Oldman is featured by Interviewmagazine.com in a piece authored by Jack White.
In my previous post on Oct. 30th I wrote that Ai Weiwei's refugee documentary, Human Flow, was still without distribution. An eagle-eyed reader, who shall remain anonymous, pointed out that Human Flow was picked up for distribution by Amazon back in June according to The Hollywood Reporter.
I regret the error. The original story has been corrected to reflect this.
That's your MTFB for this Thursday. As always, there will be more on Monday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
A slew of interviews popped up these past few days from a number of outlets associated with films that played at TFF #44. I have included links to several of them here.
Staying with directors and , in this case, screenwriter Greta Gerwig who was the creative force behind Lady Bird starring Saoirse Ronan. Here's the video of a post-screening interview of her from the New York Film Festival.
I have also added this SAG-AFTRA Foundation conversation with two time Oscar winner and co-star of Alexander Payne's Downsizing, Christoph Waltz:
The American Film Institutes's Film Fest will start on Nov. 9th and they continue to announce titles that will be p;laying as a part of their program. TFF #44 title Hostiles had already been named a centerpiece gala and a version of Errol Morris' Wormwood had also been announced.
Earlier this week three more TFF #44 films were added to the AFI schedule: The Shape of Water, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool and Film Worker.
I am continuing to roll out the first wave of Oscar 2018 predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse (FAC) with today's focus on the race for success in both Adapted and Original Screenplays.
As always, films that played Telluride are in Bold.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Call Me By Your Name
2) Mudbound
3) Molly's Game
4) Last Flag Flying 5) Wonderstruck
Others in contention: Stronger, The Disaster Artist, First They Killed My Father
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Three Billboards 2) The Shape of Water 3) Darkest Hour
4) Get Out 5) Lady Bird
Other in contention: The Post, The Big Sick, I Tonya
BACK IN TIME: THE 17TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL
My slow roll back through past Telluride Film Festivals continues today as we go back to the 17th Fest that ran from Aug. 31-Sept 3, 1990
Guest Director: Bertrand Travernier
Tributes: Clint Eastwood, John Berry, Gerard Depardieu
SHOWS:
All the Vermeers in New York
Antonia and Jane
Archangel
The Big Man
The Civil War
Coma
The Comfort of Angels
Cyrano de Bergerac
Daddy Nostalgia
Doctor Petiot
The First Spring of Youth
Freeze-Die-Come to Life
Havana
He Ran All the Way
I Walked with a Zombie
Industrial Symphony
Ju Dou
Justin de Marsielle
The King of New York
L'Atalante
The Long Walk Home
The Nasty Girl
Pursued
Reversal of Fortune
The Roof of the World
Stanto Tutti Bene
White Hunter Black Heart
Guests:
Ken Burns
Julee Cruise
Manny Farber
Abel Ferrera
Taylor Hackford
Chuck Jones
Guy Maddin
Helen Mirren
Liam Neeson
Paul Schrader
Barbet Schroeder
Sissy Spacek
Christopher Walken
TODD HAYNES TALKS WONDERSTRUCK AND MORE
Nick Newman of The Film Stage had a semi-in-depth interview with writer/director Todd Haynes that was posted on Tuesday. Haynes talks Wonderstruck, which opens on October 20th as well as a mention of the late David Bowie.
Tracy Letts plays Lady Bird's (Saoirse Ronan) father in the film of the same name written and directed by Greta Gerwig. Recently he was interviewed as a part of a series sponsored by the SAG-AFTRA Foundation. The interview is conducted by Indiewire's Eric Kohn and was posted to YouTube.
You can see their conversation here:
That's your Thursday MTFB. More on Monday...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Was perusing Gary Meyer's Eat, Drink Films website over the weekend and discovered a fine wrap-up of this year's Telluride Film Festival from Risa Nye. I have linked it here.
Risa hits many of the highlights of the weekend and specifically talks Downsizing, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Darkest Hour, Lean on Pete, Lady Bird, Jamaica Man, The Rider, Hostiles, Love Cecil, An Inconvenient Sequel, Wonderstruck, The Cotton Club Encore and Battle of the Sexes.
STONE'S TAKE ON THE OSCAR RACE
Awards Daily's Sasha Stone updates her Oscar prediction every Friday so I thought I'd take a look at last Friday's list and sort of get a feel for where this year's Telluride crop might be headed. I t should be noted that Stone doesn't list all 24 categories as yet but does mention 14 of them.
Currently she has Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water leading the way with 10 nominations each.
She has Darkest Hour with: Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.
The Shape of Water would have these nominations: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor (Jenkins), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes and Makeup.
Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird would land three nominations: Picture, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.
Battle of the Sexes gets a nomination for Emma Stone for Best Actress.
Hostiles gets a nomination for Adapted Screenplay as does Wonderstruck.
Faces/Places gets nominated for Documentary Feature.
Loving Vincent gets a nom for Animated Feature.
She also lists "Contenders", films/performers that she doesn't currently list as nominees but which could get in.
Additionally, we also got a new clip from Todd Haynes Wonderstruck that runs just over four minutes. The new clip is below from YouTube:
The Shape of Water opens on Dec. 8 and Wonderstruck opens on Oct. 20.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILED OS SET
The deadline has passed for the submission of films for consideration for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. The Playlist reports that a record 92 nations submitted films for consideration.
Among them are five films that played as a part of the TFF #44 lineup:
We're through the triple threat of Telluride, Venice and Toronto. New York and London loom in October with the AFI Fest set to run in November. It's time to get serious about awards season and the Oscarologists have begun to get serious as well.
And what they have to say is...nobody knows nothin'.
Across the board the pundits and experts are saying that it's the most wide open Best Picture race years. We've had what were perceived as close races recently but those have generally two pony races: 12 Years a Slave and Gravity in 2013 and Birdman/Boyhood in 2014. But this year it seems like a multi-horse race. Then, when you add in the preferential ballot...
So...after consulting some of my usual gurus (OK, not real consultation, I just read their various websites)..Here's what looks to me like what could be some Oscar nominees when they are announced on January 23rd.
Best Picture:
Three films seem to have become consensus picks to be nominees:
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Darkest Hour
After that it becomes murky...
Possibles:
Lady Bird
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Last Flag Flying
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Phantom Thread (or whatever its title will be)
The Florida Project
Others that could play:
Get Out
The Big Sick
Mudbound
Battle of the Sexes
It seems to me that mother!, Downsizing and Wonderstruck are not likely and I'm not sold on The Greatest Showman.
Best Actress: This field is loaded and is going to be fiercely competitive. Just getting a nomination will be difficult. Candidates:
Sally Hawkins/Shape of Water
Judi Dench/Victoria and Abdul
Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird
Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes
Meryl Streep/The Post
Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel
Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Margot Robbie/I Tonya
Daniela Vega/A Fantastic Woman
Glenn Close/The Wife
Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game
Jennifer Lawrence/mother!
Annette Bening/Film Stars
Carey Mulligan/Mudbound
It feels like Hawkins, Streep and McDormand are probable but this list of 14 is formidable.
Best Actor: A thinner field than the ladies...so says the experts and I tend to agree:
Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour (and your prohibitive favorite I suspect)
Tom Hanks/The Post
Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread/PTA Film
Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
Andrew Garfield/Breathe
Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman
Bryan Cranston/Last Flag Flying
And, of course, the dark horse candidate that I'm pushing: Harry Dean Stanton for Lucky.
Best Supporting Actress:
Laurie Metcalf/Lady Bird
Alison Janney/I Tonya
Nicole Kidman/Sacred Deer
Hong Chau/Downsizing
Holly Hunter/Big Sick
Octavia Spencer/Shape of Water
Mary J. Blige/Mudbound
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe/Florida Project
Mark Rylance/Dunkirk
Armie Hammer/Call Me By Your Name
Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Michael Stuhlbarg/Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins/Shape of Water
Michael Shannon/Shape of Water
Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying
Dustin Hoffman/The Meyerowitz Stories
Ben Mendelsohn/Darkest Hour
At a guess, your winners will be: Dafoe, Metcalf, Oldman, McDormand or Hawkins, Nolan and Dunkirk.
CATCHING UP ON TRAILERS: WONDERSTRUCK, FILM STARS, FACES PLACES
LOOKING AHEAD
It won't surprise any of you that I constantly save articles and posts about upcoming films that I think may be Telluride players at some future fest. I email myself all the time and store them in a file call "Future Telluride".
Every now and then I clean it as events overtake what has been collected. For example, I dumped articles on Friday that I had collected on TFF #44 films Battle of the Sexes, Downsizing, Lady Bird First Reformed and Darkest Hour.
But there are plenty of films that live there too that I think might show at The SHOW and then don't like: Happy End, The Current War, Molly's Game, The Snowman, Our Souls at Night and The Leisure Seeker.
And those were all from 2016 or earlier.
So, you might ask, what's still in there?
Here are the top ten film projects that have a least three articles still living in my "Future Telluride: file:
1) First Man-Damian Chazelle on Neil Armstrong with Ryan Gosling
2) Widows-Steve McQueen with Viola Davis, Carrie Coon
3) The Man Who Killed Don Quixote-Terry Gilliam's passion project for the last million years or so
4) Roma-Alfonso Cuaron
5) This Above All- Focuses on the Westboro Baptist Church
6) Black Money-Maybe a Coen Brothers project
7) The Irishman-Scorsese gets the old band back together: DeNiro, Pacino,Keitel, Pesci
8) The Front Runner-Jason Reitman telling the Gary Hart story with Hugh Jackman as Hart
9) On the Other Side-Carey Mulligan
10) The Death and Life of John F. Donovan-Xavier Dolan...a film many thought might be making the rounds this fall. It's now dated for a January release in Italy...but I wouldn't rule out a play at Berlin or Cannes.
I have 46 other films in the hold.
THE EARTHQUAKE IN MEXICO
I had a couple of different sources point me in the direction of the story of film preservation nin Mexico endangered by the aftermath of the recent earthquake.
First, here's the explanation from Viviana Garcia Besne, director of the Permancia Volunatria Film Archive:
The wire need to be processed though one of the following US banks:
CHASUS33XXX(ABA 021-000-021)JP Morgan Chase BankNew York, NY. USA
BOFAUS6SXXX(ABA 121-000-358)Bank of America NASan Francisco, CA. USA
PNBPUS33XXX(ABA 026-005-092)Wells Fargo BankNew York, NY. USA
SCBLUS33XXX(ABA 026-002-561)Standard Chartered BankNew York, NY. USA
3:00p, Land of the Free, 28 (program number), Cinephile
Le Pierre
3:30p, Arthur Miller: Writer, 19, Cinephile
Galaxy
4:15p, Lady Bird, 2
Masons Hall Cinema
7:30p, Great Expectations, 43, Cinephile
Galaxy
7:45p, Hostiles, 7a
Werner Herzog
10:00p, Loving Vincent, 15, Cinephile
Le Pierre
10:30pm, A Man of Integrity, 14, Cinephile
Masons Hall Cinema
10:30p, Faces Places, 17, Cinephile
Noon Seminar, Elks Park FREE
Sponsored by Participant Media
Moderated by Annette Insdorf
Is acting still the art, as Elia Kazan said, “of turning psychology into behavior”?
With Greta Gerwig, Tracy Letts and Gary Oldman
QUICK NOTES ON FRIDAY'S FILMS
DOWNSIZING: Liked not loved. Seems a little longish. Hong Chau is fab
DARKEST HOUR: Gary Oldman is amazing as Winston Churchill. Rest of the cast is solid but Oldman gives a performance for the ages.
FACES/PLACES: Um, a film that was lauded at Cannes...maybe too much Varda worship.
Today's likely films: Lean on Pete, Lady Bird and Wonderstruck...then see how we feel.
3:00p, Land of the Free, 28 (program number), Cinephile
Le Pierre
3:30p, Arthur Miller: Writer, 19, Cinephile
Galaxy
4:15p, Lady Bird, 2
Masons Hall Cinema
7:30p, Great Expectations, 43, Cinephile
Galaxy
7:45p, Hostiles, 7a
Werner Herzog
10:00p, Loving Vincent, 15, Cinephile
Le Pierre
10:30pm, A Man of Integrity, 14, Cinephile
Masons Hall Cinema
10:30p, Faces Places, 17, Cinephile
Noon Seminar, Elks Park FREE
Sponsored by Participant Media
Moderated by Annette Insdorf
Is acting still the art, as Elia Kazan said, “of turning psychology into behavior”?
With Greta Gerwig, Tracy Letts and Gary Oldman
QUICK NOTES ON FRIDAY'S FILMS
DOWNSIZING: Liked not loved. Seems a little longish. Hong Chau is fab
DARKEST HOUR: Gary Oldman is amazing as Winston Churchill. Rest of the cast is solid but Oldman gives a performance for the ages.
FACES/PLACES: Um, a film that was lauded at Cannes...maybe too much Varda worship.
Tomorrow's likely films: Lean on Pete, Lady Bird and Wonderstruck...then see how we feel.
·THE SHAPE OF WATER (d. Guillermo del Toro, U.S., 2017)
·TESNOTA (d. Kantemir Balagov, Russia, 2017)
·THE VENERABLE W. (d. Barbet Schroeder, France-Switzerland, 2017)
·THE VIETNAM WAR (d. Ken Burns, Lynn Novick, U.S., 2017)
·WORMWOOD (d. Errol Morris, U.S., 2017)
·WONDERSTRUCK (d. Todd Haynes, U.S., 2017)
REMINDING GUILLERMO
I posted the following on Monday and am re-posting today as I am still working on making this happen. To be honest, I have had a couple of great leads that are still percolating but nothing has come to fruition yet. So...if you missed it Monday...here it is again:
DEAR GUILLERMO...
This section of MTFB is going to be a little different than what you readers commonly see here but...
First, most everyone reading here knows that I have been very sure these past few weeks that Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water will be announced on Thursday as a part of the TFF #44 lineup. I am very excited about the film but you know who's insane about it?
My wife.
Let me tell you why because it goes beyond the excitement about seeing GDT's new film in the incredible setting that is Telluride.
Some of you know that both my wife and I teach high school in a rural town (pop. 12,500) in the Oklahoma Panhandle. She's the art teacher here and damned good at what she does. Especially in light of our current student body.
Please understand, that's not a slam about our kids but our situation is really unique.
In 1992 a massive pork processing facility opened in our community and to fill their workforce they have scoured the planet to find workers willing to re-locate. That has meant a reliance on immigrants, refugees and others.
In the last 20 or so years our demographics have shifted from a majority Anglo population to one in which minority students are the majority. Mostly kids from about every country south of the southern border of the U.S. but we're not exclusively Latin. We have have significant student populations from Burma, S. Korea, Thailand, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and more.
Our school administration tells us we have somewhere between 25-30 languages spoken in our high school (enrollment is a shade under 900 kids grades 9-12). Imagine that in a Podunk Oklahoma town.
Many of you also know that Del Toro had a harrowing childhood and turned to art as a kid to deal with that. My wife sure does. Del Toro's story and artwork have become an integral part of the curriculum in her classwork because...you know..it resonates with these kids...immigrant kids. They can relate to Del Toro's story because, for many of them, it's a lot like their stories. Del Toro's body of film work plays a part too. All these kids know Hellboy.
And, of course, because it's art, the language barrier is a much smaller problem in my wife's classroom than about anywhere else in the building. For some of her students, it's the safest and most comfortable place they find themselves every day and that's not an exaggeration. Some of her refugee kids spell out the terrors that they have lived through from refugee camps to predatory traffickers to hiding from death squads and civil war.
Needless to say, Guillermo has a more than special place in her heart.
So...I've never done this before in the nine years I've been writing this thing...but
If anyone knows anyone in the Del Toro camp (and I'm assuming here that he will make the trip with the film from Venice to Telluride), I'm asking for a favor. You know what I'm going to say here...
A meeting between Kris and Guillermo would be...um...nice. Well, she'd likely lose her mind at least a little bit. She's already got a big honking copy of Guillermo's Cabinet of Curiosities and will be hauling it this weekend on the off chance that she might be able to get an autograph. I'd like to make it a little less "chancy".
If anyone has some insight about making this happen, please contact me using any of the methods listed at the bottom of this post.
And Senor Del Toro, if YOU are reading this, hear my plea and reach out to me.
Now, back to your regularly scheduled blog post.
RATE THOSE MOVIES FOLKS
Don't forget, my friends, I want your ratings of the films you see next weekend. Use a 0-5 scale with 0 being "putrid" and 5 being "best film since..."
I will publish The People's Telluride film ratings a week to ten days after the festival concludes. Join in!
That's all for now. More to come...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
