And the Oscar Goes To.... / The Telluride Streak Continues / Better Than Last Year

Good Post-Oscar morning Film Nerds!


AND THE OSCAR GOES TO:

Here are your winners from the 90th Academy Awards as announced last night (***indicates a missed prediction):

Best Picture: The Shape of Water
Best Direction: Guillermo Del Toro/The Shape of Water
Best Actress: Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
Best Actor: Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress; Allison Janney/I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell/Three Billboards
Best Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory/Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele/Get Out
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Documentary: Icarus
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049 (Deakins finally wins!)
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Original Score: The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Remember Me/Coco
Best Makeup/Hair: Darkest Hour
Best Costumes: Phantom Thread
Best Sound Editing Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049***
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405***
Best Live Action Short: The Silent Child***
Best Animated Short: Dear Basketball

The Shape of Water led the pack with four Oscars: Picture, Director, Original Score and Production Design

Dunkirk had three: Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing

Darkest Hour had two: Actor and Makeup/Hair

Three Billboards had two: Actress and Supporting Actor

Coco had two: Animated Feature and Song

Blade Runner 2049 had two: Cinematography and Visual Effects

TFF #44 films took home seven Oscars for Best Picture, Director, Original Score, Actor, Foreign Language Film, Production Design, Makeup/Hair.


THE TELLURIDE STREAK CONTINUES

Beginning in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire, nine of the last ten Best Picture winners have come through Telluride.  That run now includes a string of eight in a row.  The Shape of Water's win last night continues the streak:

2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist
2012: Argo
2013: 12 Years a Slave
2014: Birdman
2015: Spotlight
2016: Moonlight
2017: The Shape of Water

That may finally mean that we can say that the best indicator/precursor for predicting what will win Best Picture now is a Telluride appearance.  It seems, after this crazy and unpredictable and suspenseful Oscar season that a TFF play is more reliable than almost any other precursor whether that's a guild award or some other awards program.

At least until it isn't.

Undoubtedly, the time will come when some film will win Best Picture that does NOT play Telluride.  That's inevitable and this year seemed like a prime year for that to be true but right this minute, this morning...if I were a film maker, producer, Oscar groomer, whatever...and I wanted my film to be a serious player for the big prize a year from now, I'd be busting my hump to get selected for TFF #45.

One other note:  Last night's win for Del Toro for Best Director and Best Picture was particularly sweet after the Del Toro experience we had, especially that my wife had at the fest last fall.  Again, for those who reached out and busted their buns to help make her meeting the new Oscar winner possible, thank you.  You know who you are and many of you swore me to keep your efforts quiet...so ...no names...but, again...thank you from the depths of my soul.

I'll have more on Thursday...with further thoughts as well as an analysis of TFF #44's impact on Oscar.


BETTER THAN LAST YEAR

Just a quick note that MTFB went 21 of 24 for Oscar predicting last night (after a late change in the Documentary category to Icarus).  As usual, the Shorts portion cratered the night.  I was 1 of 3 for the Shorts and 20 of 21 everywhere else.

And...look out...I'll talk Thursday about the Telluride film ratings we do here with the attendees, professionals and their composite.  It has become a ridiculously reliable bellwether for Oscar.

More on Thursday!

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FAC Oscar Update: Lead Acting / Oscar Updates from Experts / Interviews with TFF #44 Guests / Correction

It's November and here is your first MTFB of the new month...


FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING

Oscar season continues and so does my meager attempt to predict the eventual nominees.  Today's focus is on the lead acting races which were first predicted here on Oct. 12th.

As always, predicted nominees connected with TFF #44 are in Bold.

Let's get to it...

BEST ACTRESS

Here is what the last FAC set of predictions had for the Best Actress race:

1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Meryl Streep/The Post
4) Margo Robbie/I, Tonya
5) Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game

Others: Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel, Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird


And the updated predictions:


1) Frances McDormand/Three Billboards
2) Sally Hawkins/The Shape of Water
3) Margot Robbie/I, Tonya
4) Meryl Streep/The Post
5) Saoirse Ronan/Lady Bird

Others: Emma Stone/Battle of the Sexes, Jessica Chastain/Molly's Game, Kate Winslet/Wonder Wheel

BEST ACTOR

From Oct. 12th:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour
2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger
3) Daniel Day Lewis/Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
4) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name
5) Hugh Jackman/The Greatest Showman

Others: Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Denzel Washington/Roman Israel Esq., Tom Hanks/The Post

And today's updated predictions:

1) Gary Oldman/Darkest Hour

2) Jake Gyllenhaal/Stronger

3) Timothee Chalamet/Call Me By Your Name

4) Daniel Day Lewis/Phantom Thread

5) Denzel Washington/Roman Israel, Esq.

Others: Steve Carell/Last Flag Flying, Andrew Garfield/Breathe, Tom Hanks/The Post


OSCAR UPDATES FROM THE EXPERTS

Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Jason Osiason of Fantastic Film Fans (and also one of The Gold Rush Gang over at Awards Watch) have updated their Oscar predictions as of Nov. 1.

The latest Feinberg Forecast can be found here.

Osaison's latest take is linked here.

Feinberg  predicts 15 categories and has the following nominations predicted for films that played at Telluride in 2017:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography and Score.

Lady Bird: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Direction, Actor, Cinematography and Score

Wonderstruck: Supporting Actress, Production Design, Cinematography, Score

Loving Vincent: Animated Feature

Foxtrot: Foreign Language Film

Loveless; Foreign Language Film

Downsizing: Production Design

An Inconvenient Sequel: Best Song

Osiason predicts the major eight categories including these for TFF #44 films:

The Shape of Water: Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay

Lady Bird; Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay

Darkest Hour: Best Picture, Actor

MORE INTERVIEWS WITH TFF #44 GUESTS

Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird opens tomorrow.  The film, which was quite the hit at T-ride,  has continued to gain fans through the rest of the fall film festival season.  Writer-director Gerwig was recently interviewed by Harry Haun for Film Journal which posted it this week.

Here's the link to that from Film Journal.


Meanwhile, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour, the detailed account of the events that led to the rescue at Dunkirk, opens Thanksgiving weekend.  Gary Oldman plays Winston Churchill and is widely regarded as the prohibitive favorite to pick the Best Actor Oscar next March.

Oldman is featured by Interviewmagazine.com in a piece authored by Jack White.

You can read that here.


CORRECTION

In my previous post on Oct. 30th I wrote that Ai Weiwei's refugee documentary, Human Flow, was still without distribution.  An eagle-eyed reader, who shall remain anonymous, pointed out that Human Flow was picked up for distribution by Amazon back in June according to The Hollywood Reporter.

I regret the error.  The original story has been corrected to reflect this.

That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  As always, there will be more on Monday.




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TFF #44 Comes to a Close / Send Me Your Film Ratings

TFF #44 COMES TO A CLOSE

Reporting from the road home...

The 44th Telluride Film Festival came to a close last night.  I have to admit that I had a great time this weekend.

As I am headed home, I thought I'd share a few random thoughts

1) I have to thank the fest first for, again, accrediting me as a journalist.  That allowed some ease of access to films that was immeasurably useful.  The Fest doesn't have to do that but they have been kind enough to do so for a number of years now.

2) Thanks to so many of you that were kind enough to share that you do follow the blog.  It overwhelms me that anyone pays attention to what I write here but I'm glad that you do.  Also, there were a good number of faithful readers and new followers that I didn't get to run into and that makes me sad.  Keep in touch folks.

3) I really have to underscore my appreciation to all of you that responded to the appeal for my wife to meet Guillermo Del Toro.  I was stunned at how a number of people reached out with solid suggestions and sources to try to make that happen.  So many of you were rooting for us.  And thanks to Guillermo Del Toro himself who was beautifully gracious and warm when the moment did present itself.

4) I saw ten films during the weekend and liked most of them but I don't think I necessarily saw a great film.  Lots of good films though.  I'll have more on that later this week (Thursday).

Me and Oscar winner Barry Jenkins at The Palm 

5) The famous and beautiful...in addition to Del Toro I got to have a moment or two to renew my acquaintance with Oscar winner Barry Jenkins and spoke Saturday with the fantastic Richard Jenkins who I hope gets some notice from The Academy come Oscar time.

Rosamund Pike and Richard Jenkins at the Fox Searchlight Party Saturday night.

I also stood next to Rosamund Pike for a good long time Saturday night and restrained myself from injecting myself into her convo. But I kind of wanted to.

Telluride Film's Instagram from Sunday.  Lower right corner is me talking to the fab Sasha Stone of Awards Daily

6) Professional friends.  It was beyond fantastic to get a few moments to gab with friends that are true pros in the business of covering film.  They're people of been unfailingly kind and generous to me as I have tried to figure out what this blog is and should be.  Special shout outs to Sasha Stone/Awards Daily, Kris Tapley/Variety, Tomris Laffly/FSR and others, Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit.

7) Also thanks again to all the industry press pros that are taking part in this years Professional film ratings.  People that don't have to do that but who do.

8) Finally,a big thank you to my wife and brother who were my companions and shared the weekend with me.  They both made the logistics of the weekend much, much more manageable.

I'll have a nice post on Thursday that will focus on the critical reactions to the films that played TFF #44, my take on the ten films I saw and a rundown on MTFB's effectiveness for TFF#44.

WHILE YOU WAIT FOR THAT...DON'T FORGET TO SEND ME YOUR FILM RATINGS!!!

As I write this on Monday evening, I've already received the first 10-12 sets of ratings from readers. Remember use a 0-5 scale and you can get that info to me in any of the ways listed below.

More on Thursday...


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We Have a Poster / Hollywood Elsewhere Makes Some Telluride Guesses / Spielberg at TFF #44? /

Good Thursday friendo...can you tell I was watching No Country for Old Men late last night?


WE HAVE A POSTER


After teasing you with glimpses of what we thought was the official poster hanging in the Nugget Theater in Telluride we have the confirmation now as the Telluride Film Festival officially announced this year's poster artist as well as releasing the poster to the public for viewing and for sale.  Here's the visual:

This year's poster artist is Lance Rutter who, according to the TFF press release is a graphic designer and also teaches design at the School of the Art Institute in Chicago.  He is also a Vice President of Silicon Valley based start up Design for Quantifind.  He also is on the national board of the American Institute for Graphic Arts.

TFF #44 poster artist Lance Rutter (via quantifind.com)

Rutter is quoted in the release saying, "I don't think it's possible to overstate how thrilled I was to be asked to create a poster for the 44th edition of the Telluride Film Festival."  He went on to say, "I believe there is something uniquely magical that happens there every year."

Festival Executive Director Julie Huntsinger said, "Lance's design for this year's poster is simply stunning."

Rutter joins an impressive list of artists who have designed the fests posters in past years that includes: Julian Schnabel, Chuck Jones, Gary Larson, Laurie Anderson, William Wegman and Dave Eggers among others.

The new poster is on on sale online here.

HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE MAKES SOME TELLURIDE GUESSES

You can tell that TFF #44 is getting closer as well as the entire fall film fest gauntlet as the press covering the film industry increase their focus on what films will be featured at which festivals.

Tuesday saw Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere post his first serious take on what he thinks will and won't and could play at The SHOW.

Wells has some interesting thoughts about TFF.

He says that he thinks that Todd Haynes Wonderstruck, Sean Baker's The Florida Project and Sebastain Lelio's A Fantastic Woman are all "locks" for TFF #44.  All three films have been on my first two Ten Bets lists these past two weeks.

Other films that Wells says would be a "good fit" or "make sense" are:

Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049 (more about that later on in this post).
Aaron Sorkin's Molly's Game
Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Ritesh Batra's Our Souls at Night
Geroge Clooney's Suburbicon
John Curran's Chappaquiddick

Couple of notes here:  I keep forgetting about both Batra's and Curran's films which I shouldn't as both film makers have had films at Telluride in the past.  Batra with The Lunchbox in 2013.  Our Souls at Night also has the distinction of re-paring of Jane Fonda and Robert Redford (Barefoot in the Park, The Electric Horseman). It would be a tremendous event to have those two in Telluride for a Jane Fonda tribute. As best as I can determine Fonda has never been to Telluride with a film. Redford, of course, was a tribute recipient in 2013 with All Is Lost.  Netflix is the distributor of the film.

John Curran was also at Telluride in 2013 with Tracks.

As to Blade Runner 2049...I keep hearing buzz that Warners is going to forgo any Fest play in an effort to keep the film's secrets and twists under wraps until its release on Oct. 6th.  That makes a bunch of sense to me and despite the fact that I think I've made a pretty good case for why it could be a Telluride pick...right now, it feels like it's still not likely.

Other Well's notes on some TFF possibilities on a film by film basis:

Downsizing...HE says "nope".
The Current War "probably not"
Wonder "maybe"
mother! Wells says "Bring it on" which I'm not sure if he means that he thinks it will be at T-ride or that he wants it to be or both.
Mary Magdalene "no clue"
Three Billboards "likely"
Stronger "maybe"
Suburbicon "maybe"
The Shape of Water "doesn't seem like a Telluride-type" (though I hear some buzz that Fox Searchlight might really want it to play at TFF)
Blade Runner 2049 "likely" (see above)
Molly's Game "maybe"

Again, the entire "Telluride Spitball" post is here.


SPIELBERG AT TFF #44?

No. No. No.  Not with The Papers which has almost zero chance to be ready by Labor Day.  I think that it'll be lucky to hit its limited release date of Dec. 22nd.

No, instead, I think we might have a chance to see the HBO doc about Spielberg that was all over the media the last couple of days.


HBO Docs has had a substantial presence at Telluride recently:

2012: Love, Marilyn
2014: The 50 Year Argument, Tales of the Grim Sleeper
2015: Heart of a Dog
2016: Bright Lights

So a spot for a doc about Steven Spielberg seems like a real possibility.  The film will air on HBO on Oct. 7th.

Coverage is here from SlashFilm and here from Indiewire.

A screening in Telluride would also coincide with the Sept. 1 re-release of Close Encounters of the Third Kind to celebrate its 40th anniversary.


There's your MTFB post for Thursday, July 13, 2017.  More to come tomorrow including the latest update TFF #44's Ten Bets.


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And I'm Back / 30 Anticipated Films and Telluride / A Deeper Meaning to Battle of the Sexes?

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope yours was good.  Mine was as I got to spend it in Jackson Hole, Wyoming...Gorgeous!

Now on to today's MTFB:


AND I'M BACK

Yes, it's true.  I received my email notification from the Telluride Film Festival that I have been accredited as a journalist for the run of the fest.  Here's the pictorial proof of that acceptance:

 I want to thank the Telluride Film Festival and especially the folks that coordinate the press for the fest for accepting my application.  It is an honor.

I'll try to make it work for those of you that read this space regularly.


30 ANTICIPATED FILMS AND TELLURIDE

Business Insider has posted a story that focuses on 30 films that they think are the most anticipated films for the fall season.  Among them are films that I have had on my TFF #44 radar:

Battle of the Sexes
Blade Runner 2049
mother!
Call Me By Your Name
Mary Magdalene
Molly's Game
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film (Phantom Thread)


Here's the link to the complete article.


A DEEPER MEANING TO BATTLE OF THE SEXES

The Dayton/Faris film Battle of the Sexes has a lot of potential TFF heat this last couple of weeks. Last Friday the film was at the #4 spot on my second edition of Ten Bets for 2017.

In the midst of the heat, I stumbled across this story from Entertainment Weekly in which Emma Stone, who plays Billie Jean King in the film, suggests that there are parallels between the film and our current social status.

Check out that story from EW here.



That's it for Monday.  And a warning here.  Tuesday's post is likely to hit later in the morning than normal.  Don't panic...just got to drive home.

Later...

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Pre-Release POSTER NEWS / More Quixote Views

Good Thursday film fans...


EXCLUSIVE: PRE-RELEASE POSTER NEWS

If you read Tuesday's blog post, you know that I included a segment about the fact that we haven't seen an announcement concerning this year's poster or poster artist.  The point I was making was that, normally, over the past few years, we have seen that announcement by now.

Well...

In response, I received an email from blog fan/reader Amanda Gessert who reported that she had been in Telluride last weekend and happened to spy, in the window of The Nugget Theater, what appears to be this year's poster.  No kidding...

Here are her photos:

Admittedly, the window glare makes it difficult to really make out all the details but you can get a pretty good sense of what the TFF #44 poster looks like.

My thanks to Amanda for the pics.

MORE QUIXOTE VIEWS

In light of the news from earlier this week that Terry Gilliam had wrapped principal photography, I thought I'd link  an Indiewire story that includes ten photos of the project from the very beginning right up to the present day.

Here are a couple:

The complete selection of images is here from Indiwire.


That's your Thursday post.  More to come tomorrow.


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The Don is Done / What We Haven't Seen...Yet

Haven't posted on a Tuesday for awhile...


THE DON IS DONE

Well...the filming is complete for Terry Gilliam's 17 year long gestating The Man Who Killed Don Quixote.  Now it's time for it to move to post-production.

The film has achieved legendary status as an exercise in frustration and perservernce as Gilliam has been trying to get the film made for 17+ years.  The film was featured as a part of a documentary that played Telluride back in 2002 (TFF #29).  The doc was entitled Lost in La Mancha and Gilliam attended the fest as a part of that.

The Telluride program description for Lost in La Mancha sounds like it could have been written right up until this last year:

Amazon Studios was the principle factor in Gilliam securing the funding to get the project filmed and that makes me think that we could see the film as a part of the TFF #45 lineup.  I don't think a Cannes 2018 spot is outside the realm of possibility either.

Linked for your enjoyment are articles about Gilliam's completion from Indiewire, The Playlist, Variety and Slashfilm.


WHAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN...YET

I'm a little surprised that we haven't seen a poster release for TFF #44 as yet.  I checked back over the last six years and the fest usually has announced the poster by this time.  2012 was an anomaly as the poster artist and poster weren't announced until July 9th.  But each of the other years back to 2011, we've known who and what by this time.

Here's a quick trip down poster memory lane:

2016:

2015:

2014:

2013:

2012:

2011:

More to come on Thursday...

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Looking Ahead / Oscar Post Mortems / And for Fun

Good Thursday People...

Over your Oscar hangover yet?

LOOKING AHEAD

What an Oscar night for the Telluride Film Festival..  Between Moonlight, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Arrival and The White Helmets it was an extraordinary night for TFF #43.  Count 'em up...13 Oscars between the aforementioned films including Moonlight's Best Picture surprise win (BP at Telluride for the seventh straight year and eight of the last nine):

Moonlight-3
La La Land-6
Manchester-2
Arrival-1
The White Helmets-1

But Oscar night is behind us and that can only mean one thing and that is that it's time to put away The Film Awards Clearinghouse and go back to the business of Michael's Telluride Film Blog...trying to determine the lineup possibilities for TFF #44...

To that end, you might note that I bought my pass yesterday.  I'll be applying for press accreditation within the next month or so...with the notion of bringing you the best coverage possible in the run-up and then presentation of the 2017 iteration of TFF.

So...let's get serious.

Awards Circuit has posted their 50 Most Anticipated Films and let's parse that list for possible Telluride titles for Labor Day.

#39-The Current War- Alejandro Inarritu protege Alfonso Gomez Rajon directs Benedict Cumberbatch and Michael Shannon as Thomas Edison and George Westinghouse battling over electricity.  From The Weinstein Company, I could see this film as the Weinstein's return vehicle for Telluride.


#38-Downsizing- Matt Damon stars in an Alexander Payne film.  That could be sufficient to get it a berth at TFF

#27-Suburbicon-George Clooney directs a script co-written by the Coen Brothers and with a stellar cast: Damon (again), Josh Brolin, Oscar Isaac and Julianne Moore...oh my.  This might be a hope more than a real Telluride play. but I've thought since Clooney was a tribute recipient in 2011 that he would return and this could be the vehicle for that to happen. Paramount is distributing (this as well as Downsizing) so let's have a Matt Damon double feature.  Maybe a Damon tribute?

#24- Battle of the Sexes- Billy Jean King vs. Bobby Riggs in the person of Emma Stone and Steve Carell.  They've both been to T-ride.  Bring 'em back say I with this film that I think I've had on the radar for a couple of years.  It could mark the return to Telluride of Fox Searchlight.

#17-Wonderstruck-Todd Haynes directs.  Does he return after Carol's play a couple of years ago.  Julianne Moore stars (as mentioned above, she's also in Suburbicon)  A Moore tribute?  Yes please.  From Amazon...which made a splash at Telluride in 2016 with Manchester by the Sea.

#10-Molly's Game-Aaron Sorkin directs Jessica Chastain in his directing debut.   Maybe more a desire than a realistic possibility...but...

These seem to me to be the best shots.  Take a look at the entire 50 film list plus some other titles here;

Awards Circuit's 50 Most Anticipated Films


OSCAR POST-MORTEMS

Here's a link or two to podcast coverage of the Oscar ceremony from Sunday night:

Oscar Podcast #52 from Awards Watch

Awards Daily Podcast


AND FOR FUN...



Here is the "Honest Trailer" take for the nine films nominated for Best Picture this year.  It's entertaining:

Entertainment Weekly Honest Best Picture Trailers

More on Monday...


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