Ten Bets #4 for TFF #44 / Wonderstruck Reveals a Trailer / mother! Has a New Date / And We End Where We Began

Welcome to Friday everyone...

TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF#44

Here's my last "Ten Bets" before the clarity that will descend next week as Toronto and Venice begin to announce their lineups.  As the rest of the summer unfolds into early fall Toronto will continue to add film selections weekly and we'll add to that selections from New York and London and end up with a fairly comprehensive and largely correct listing of films for Telluride's 44th edition.



As a reminder here's last week's Ten Bets:

1) Wonderstruck
2) Visages/Villages
3) Loveless
4) The Florida Project
5) A Fantastic Woman
6) Battle of the Sexes
7) 120 BPM
8) The Other Side of Hope
9) You Were Never Really Here
10) Downsizing


And this week's:

1) Wonderstruck (with a trailer out yesterday...see below)
2) Downsizing
3) Visages/Villages
4) Loveless
5) Battle of the Sexes
6) The Florida Project
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) A Fantastic Woman
9) The Other Side of Hope
10) The Current War


Other possibles: 120 BPM, The Shape of Water, The Rider, Loving Vincent, mother!, Happy End, Redoubtable, The Death of Stalin, Ken Burns Vietnam


On Monday...MTFB's "Telluride Wish List"...yes, there are films that I wish for.


WONDERSTRUCK REVEALS A TRAILER

Todd Haynes film based on Brian Selznick's novel has been sitting on top of the MTFB Ten Bets for the last two weeks.  It opened the first "Ten Bets" at #3.  Suffice to say that I strongly believe it will play TFF #44.  So I was excited yesterday evening to discover that the Cannes competition film dropped a trailer.  Here it is from YouTube:

Wonderstruck trailer release coverage from:

The Film Stage

Indiewire

Entertainment Weekly



mother! HAS A NEW DATE

I'm not sure what it portends but Darren Aronofsky's mother! has been scheduled for anew release date a full month earlier than it had been originally planned.  The film was set for an Oct. 13th date but that changed yesterday with a move up to Sept. 15th.

Variety pointed out that it could still mean a play for the film at Telluride, Venice and even Toronto.

Aronofsky's Black Swan played Venice, Telluride and Toronto in 2010 but that was with a December release date.  Black Swan earned five Oscar nominations including a win for Natalie Portman for Best Actress and nominations for Best Picture and Best Direction.

The film stars Oscar winners Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem.

In other mother! news...word is that a trailer appeared in some theaters that were playing Dunkirk yesterday which means we could expect to see it soon.

Gotta tell you, I kind of think it might show up at The SHOW now.

Further coverage of the move for mother! is here from:

SlashFilm




AND WE END WHERE WE BEGAN

We started this week with the awful news of the passing of George Romero and Martin Landau and it only feels right to end there as well.

Former TFF Co-director Gary Meyer put together a fantastic reminder, reverie and recognition of the two men at Eat, Drink, Films.  Check it out here.


That's all for this Friday.  Enjoy your weekend...I'm in Salem, Oregon through Sunday night at The Salem Art and Festival.  If you're around, drop by and say hello.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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TFF #44 Ten Bets #3 / The Playlist Has 50 Films They Want to See / The Darkest Hour Trailer

It's finally Friday...


TFF #44 TEN BETS #3

And so because it's Friday, it's time for the third iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for Telluride.  It's my weekly attempt to guess what will play at this year's fest ranked in order of what I believe their likelihood to be.

Last week's Ten Bets looked like this:

1) Wonderstruck

2) Loveless

3) Visages/Villages

4) Battle of the Sexes

5) Downsizing

6) The Florida Project

7) A Fantastic Woman

8) The Other Side of Hope

9) 120 BPM

10) You Were Never Really Here

This week's Ten Bets...

1) Wonderstruck

2) Visages/Villages

3) Loveless

4) The Florida Project

5) A Fantastic Woman

6) Battle of the Sexes

7) 120 BPM

8) The Other Side of Hope

9) You Were Never Really Here

10) Downsizing

Others to consider: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Our Souls at Night, The Rider, Lean on Pete, Loving Vincent.

THE PLAYLIST HAS 50 FILMS THEY WANT TO SEE

Earlier this week The Playlist put up their annual "50 Films We Want to See" at fall film fests.  As a part of that listing the crew there make some predictions about where they think films are likely to appear/premiere.

They specifically mention Telluride in the context of six films (seven if you count a reference from their "other" films beyond the 50 they highlight.  They are:

Battle of the Sexes

The Current War

The Death of Stalin (MTFB comment...yes, please)

Mary Magdalene

mother!

Under the Silver Lake

and Breathe which is mentioned outside their 50

Among others of their 50 films that I have been following as potential T-ride players, here is that list and The Playback's notes regarding where they think the film will screen and/or premiere (and even in the case of these films, a play at any of the fests that are listed doesn't mean that the film would not also play at Telluride):

Blade Runner 2049-Venice (you might remember my comment yesterday about BR2049 maybe not playing any fest)

The Darkest Hour-Venice/TIFF (see below)

Disobedience From the director of A Fantastic Woman (which I think is likely for T-ride)-Venice/TIFF

Downsizing-all they say is that a "fall premiere...is a lock" which would almost certainly be Telluride I would think but there is still buzz concerning whether it will be ready.

Hostiles-AFI

Lady Bird-TIFF

Lean on Pete-Venice/TIFF

Molly's Game-AFI

Roman Israel, Esq-TIFF/AFI

The Shape of Water-TIFF

The Snowman-Venice

Stronger-Venice

Suburbicon-The Playlist says' We hear this already has a major festival slot lined up" but they don't speculate about which one.  They do say to expect an announcement sooner rather than later which would mean that whatever it is, it's not Telluride.  That doesn't preclude a T-ride play, however.

Three Billboards-Venice/TIFF

Wonder Wheel-Venice/NYFF

Wondershock-Venice/TIFF

Again, the entire post is here.

THE DARKEST HOUR TRAILER 

We saw yesterday that we would get a trailer for Joe Wright's Darkest Hour.  The big buzz has been about Gary Oldman's performance as Winston Churchill.  Here's the newly released trailer:

The film is being distributed by Focus Features and is set to be released on Nov. 22nd.  

Here are a couple of stories about the film and its trailer release from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Daily

SlashFilm

There's your MTFB for Friday, July 14th.  More to come next Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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And I'm Back / 30 Anticipated Films and Telluride / A Deeper Meaning to Battle of the Sexes?

Welcome back from the weekend.  Hope yours was good.  Mine was as I got to spend it in Jackson Hole, Wyoming...Gorgeous!

Now on to today's MTFB:


AND I'M BACK

Yes, it's true.  I received my email notification from the Telluride Film Festival that I have been accredited as a journalist for the run of the fest.  Here's the pictorial proof of that acceptance:

 I want to thank the Telluride Film Festival and especially the folks that coordinate the press for the fest for accepting my application.  It is an honor.

I'll try to make it work for those of you that read this space regularly.


30 ANTICIPATED FILMS AND TELLURIDE

Business Insider has posted a story that focuses on 30 films that they think are the most anticipated films for the fall season.  Among them are films that I have had on my TFF #44 radar:

Battle of the Sexes
Blade Runner 2049
mother!
Call Me By Your Name
Mary Magdalene
Molly's Game
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film (Phantom Thread)


Here's the link to the complete article.


A DEEPER MEANING TO BATTLE OF THE SEXES

The Dayton/Faris film Battle of the Sexes has a lot of potential TFF heat this last couple of weeks. Last Friday the film was at the #4 spot on my second edition of Ten Bets for 2017.

In the midst of the heat, I stumbled across this story from Entertainment Weekly in which Emma Stone, who plays Billie Jean King in the film, suggests that there are parallels between the film and our current social status.

Check out that story from EW here.



That's it for Monday.  And a warning here.  Tuesday's post is likely to hit later in the morning than normal.  Don't panic...just got to drive home.

Later...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The First Ten Bets for TFF #44 / The Distributors: Warners and Paramount / Breathe Will Open BFI- Fest

Welcome my friends...to the machine...for Friday, June 30, 2017.


THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #44

Well, it's arrived.  Since 2011, I have been formally taking a stab at what films will be at The SHOW with what I call "Ten Bets".  For what will be the seventh year running, those begin appearing the last week of June and will run on a weekly, updated basis until the day before the lineup is actually announced-probably Aug. 31.

As to its success...well, this first one you need to take with a gigantic grain of sodium chloride. The success rate of the first Ten Bets each year is less than impressive.


2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10

The average over these past six years 5.5 but as you can see, the last two years have been particularly challenging.  Last year's first list only correctly named Moonlight, Toni Erdmann and Fire at Sea.

Okay then, enough disclaiming...here's your first "Ten Bets" for 2017:

1) Loveless
2) A Fantastic Woman
3) Wonderstruck
4) Visages/Villages

5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider

10) Battle of the Sexes

The Next Bets, in no particular order of likelihood:  Happy End, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Current War, Loving Vincent, Lean on Pete, Redoubtable, Spoor.



THE DISTRIBUTORS: WARNERS AND PARAMOUNT

Of the "major" film studios the two that have had the biggest footprint at Telluride over the past few years are Warners and Paramount.

Warners has particularly become a consistent presence in the past five years:

2012: Argo
2013; Gravity, Prisoners
2104:
2015: Black Mass
2016: Sully

Certainly Argo and Gravity worked out well for them both in terms of financial success and Oscar success.  Less so for Black Mass and Sully.  Still, you'd have to think that there's a least a decent shpt that Warners returns in 2017 with one film,  So what's in the Warners cupboard that has Telluride potential?

The big question, and maybe the only question regarding Warners this fall and Telluride is:  Do they bring and does Telluride want Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049?

I've been grappling with that question for most of the spring and into the summer.  The case for it is that it is from Warners and it is directed by Denis Villenueve and he and Telluride have a long and pleasant history:

1998-August 32nd on Earth
2009-Incendies
2013-Prisoners
2016-Arrival

And as I have said a number of times, the inclusion in recent years of Gravity and Arrival make a pretty good empirical evidence for a film like Blade Runner 2049 to make the TFF lineup.

Finally, I suspect that BR 2049 is going to make a big splash when it opens Oct. 6th.  Too many people have wanted anxiously for so long for the sequel to the 1982 original and I believe Villenueve is going to make the material sing.

But...

I still am not completely sold on the idea.  Had anyone been suggesting this style of film for Telluride prior to 2013 I almost certainly would have said "no way" with Villenueve attached or not.  And Villenueve's track record does show a pattern of gaps between Telluride appearances.  So BR 2049 is no cinch for a T-ride play.

Chances: 30%

And at this point, if BR 2049 does NOT play, I doubt Warners has a film at the fest in 2017.

Paramount Pictures has a spotty Telluride resume:

Arrival played in 2016
Anomalisa in 2015
Labor Day 2013
Up in the Air 2009

Paramount has, in my estimation, three films that they could be interested in bringing to Telluride:

Alexander Payne's Downsizing
George Clooney's Suburbicon
Darren Aronfsky's mother!

All three film makers have been at Telluride within the last few years.  Payne has become a regular and as you can see from the Ten Bets above, I expect him back again this year with Downsizing.

Clooney was in Telluride in 2011 with Payne's The Descendants.  Clooney was a tribute recipient that year but hasn't returned.

Aronofsky sneaked Black Swan at the fest in 2010.

Chances:

Downsizing 75%
Suburbicon 30%
mother! 25%


BREATHE WILL OPEN BFI-LONDON FEST

We saw the first signs of Andy Serkis' directing debut yesterday with the trailer for Breathe and the announcement from the BFI-London Film Fest that it would open there on Oct. 4th as an European Premiere meaning that it will world premiere somewhere previously not on the European continent. That almost certainly means a play at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.

My bet, at the moment is Toronto.

The film is being distributed by Bleeker Street Media which partnered with Netflix in 2015 to release Beasts of No Nation.

Here's the trailer for Breathe from YouTube:

And that's a wrap for Friday.  Enjoy your weekend.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 (and follow me there as well)

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