TFF #44 Ten Bets #3 / The Playlist Has 50 Films They Want to See / The Darkest Hour Trailer

It's finally Friday...


TFF #44 TEN BETS #3

And so because it's Friday, it's time for the third iteration of MTFB's Ten Bets for Telluride.  It's my weekly attempt to guess what will play at this year's fest ranked in order of what I believe their likelihood to be.

Last week's Ten Bets looked like this:

1) Wonderstruck

2) Loveless

3) Visages/Villages

4) Battle of the Sexes

5) Downsizing

6) The Florida Project

7) A Fantastic Woman

8) The Other Side of Hope

9) 120 BPM

10) You Were Never Really Here

This week's Ten Bets...

1) Wonderstruck

2) Visages/Villages

3) Loveless

4) The Florida Project

5) A Fantastic Woman

6) Battle of the Sexes

7) 120 BPM

8) The Other Side of Hope

9) You Were Never Really Here

10) Downsizing

Others to consider: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, Our Souls at Night, The Rider, Lean on Pete, Loving Vincent.

THE PLAYLIST HAS 50 FILMS THEY WANT TO SEE

Earlier this week The Playlist put up their annual "50 Films We Want to See" at fall film fests.  As a part of that listing the crew there make some predictions about where they think films are likely to appear/premiere.

They specifically mention Telluride in the context of six films (seven if you count a reference from their "other" films beyond the 50 they highlight.  They are:

Battle of the Sexes

The Current War

The Death of Stalin (MTFB comment...yes, please)

Mary Magdalene

mother!

Under the Silver Lake

and Breathe which is mentioned outside their 50

Among others of their 50 films that I have been following as potential T-ride players, here is that list and The Playback's notes regarding where they think the film will screen and/or premiere (and even in the case of these films, a play at any of the fests that are listed doesn't mean that the film would not also play at Telluride):

Blade Runner 2049-Venice (you might remember my comment yesterday about BR2049 maybe not playing any fest)

The Darkest Hour-Venice/TIFF (see below)

Disobedience From the director of A Fantastic Woman (which I think is likely for T-ride)-Venice/TIFF

Downsizing-all they say is that a "fall premiere...is a lock" which would almost certainly be Telluride I would think but there is still buzz concerning whether it will be ready.

Hostiles-AFI

Lady Bird-TIFF

Lean on Pete-Venice/TIFF

Molly's Game-AFI

Roman Israel, Esq-TIFF/AFI

The Shape of Water-TIFF

The Snowman-Venice

Stronger-Venice

Suburbicon-The Playlist says' We hear this already has a major festival slot lined up" but they don't speculate about which one.  They do say to expect an announcement sooner rather than later which would mean that whatever it is, it's not Telluride.  That doesn't preclude a T-ride play, however.

Three Billboards-Venice/TIFF

Wonder Wheel-Venice/NYFF

Wondershock-Venice/TIFF

Again, the entire post is here.

THE DARKEST HOUR TRAILER 

We saw yesterday that we would get a trailer for Joe Wright's Darkest Hour.  The big buzz has been about Gary Oldman's performance as Winston Churchill.  Here's the newly released trailer:

The film is being distributed by Focus Features and is set to be released on Nov. 22nd.  

Here are a couple of stories about the film and its trailer release from:

Indiewire

Deadline

Awards Daily

SlashFilm

There's your MTFB for Friday, July 14th.  More to come next Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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Ten Bets #2 for TFF #44 / Wonderstruck Centers New York AND... / A Trailer for California Typewriter

Welcome to Friday Film Fans...


TEN BETS #2 FOR TFF #44

Here we are on a Friday in July once again which means it's time for our weekly update of my list of ten films that seem, at least at this point, the most likely to play as a part of this year's Telluride Film Festival.

Last week's first attempt looked like this:

1) Loveless
2) A Fantastic Woman
3) Wonderstruck
4) Visages/Villages
5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider
10) Battle of the Sexes

The Next Bets, in no particular order of likelihood:  Happy End, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Current War, Loving Vincent, Lean on Pete, Redoubtable, Spoor.

In light of bits and pieces of information, here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) Wonderstruck

2) Loveless

3) Visages/Villages

4) Battle of the Sexes

5) Downsizing

6) The Florida Project

7) A Fantastic Woman

8) The Other Side of Hope

9) 120 BPM

10) You Were Never Really Here

Other films bubbling just below these Ten Bets:

The Rider, Happy End, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, The Current War, Loving Vincent, Lean on Pete, Redoubtable, Spoor.

WONDERSTRUCK CENTERS NEW YORK AND...

The New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck will be their Centerpiece this year on Oct. 7th.  Of special note to Telluride followers was the note in the announcement from the Film Society of Lincoln Center that the film would be presented as its New York premiere.  

That implies that the film will have played previously as a North American and U.S. premiere somewhere else.  My conclusion...it plays Telluride.

Here's the FSLC announcement.

And additional coverage of the selection by the NYFF from Indiewire.

In light of this announcement, I moved Wonderstruck up to the number one spot in today's Ten Bets as you can see above.

A TRAILER FOR CALIFORNIA TYPEWRITER

One of last year's sort of underground hits at TFF #43 was the documentary California Typewriter. The film acts as a love letter to the machine and the people that still love to use them.  The film is being distributed by Gravitas Ventures and The Playlist reports that it has a domestic release date of August 18th.

The trailer, however, is out and here it is from YouTube:

That's a wrap for this Friday and this week.  More to come on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The First Ten Bets for TFF #44 / The Distributors: Warners and Paramount / Breathe Will Open BFI- Fest

Welcome my friends...to the machine...for Friday, June 30, 2017.


THE FIRST TEN BETS FOR TFF #44

Well, it's arrived.  Since 2011, I have been formally taking a stab at what films will be at The SHOW with what I call "Ten Bets".  For what will be the seventh year running, those begin appearing the last week of June and will run on a weekly, updated basis until the day before the lineup is actually announced-probably Aug. 31.

As to its success...well, this first one you need to take with a gigantic grain of sodium chloride. The success rate of the first Ten Bets each year is less than impressive.


2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10

The average over these past six years 5.5 but as you can see, the last two years have been particularly challenging.  Last year's first list only correctly named Moonlight, Toni Erdmann and Fire at Sea.

Okay then, enough disclaiming...here's your first "Ten Bets" for 2017:

1) Loveless
2) A Fantastic Woman
3) Wonderstruck
4) Visages/Villages

5) The Florida Project
6) Downsizing
7) You Were Never Really Here
8) 120 BPM
9) The Rider

10) Battle of the Sexes

The Next Bets, in no particular order of likelihood:  Happy End, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Current War, Loving Vincent, Lean on Pete, Redoubtable, Spoor.



THE DISTRIBUTORS: WARNERS AND PARAMOUNT

Of the "major" film studios the two that have had the biggest footprint at Telluride over the past few years are Warners and Paramount.

Warners has particularly become a consistent presence in the past five years:

2012: Argo
2013; Gravity, Prisoners
2104:
2015: Black Mass
2016: Sully

Certainly Argo and Gravity worked out well for them both in terms of financial success and Oscar success.  Less so for Black Mass and Sully.  Still, you'd have to think that there's a least a decent shpt that Warners returns in 2017 with one film,  So what's in the Warners cupboard that has Telluride potential?

The big question, and maybe the only question regarding Warners this fall and Telluride is:  Do they bring and does Telluride want Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049?

I've been grappling with that question for most of the spring and into the summer.  The case for it is that it is from Warners and it is directed by Denis Villenueve and he and Telluride have a long and pleasant history:

1998-August 32nd on Earth
2009-Incendies
2013-Prisoners
2016-Arrival

And as I have said a number of times, the inclusion in recent years of Gravity and Arrival make a pretty good empirical evidence for a film like Blade Runner 2049 to make the TFF lineup.

Finally, I suspect that BR 2049 is going to make a big splash when it opens Oct. 6th.  Too many people have wanted anxiously for so long for the sequel to the 1982 original and I believe Villenueve is going to make the material sing.

But...

I still am not completely sold on the idea.  Had anyone been suggesting this style of film for Telluride prior to 2013 I almost certainly would have said "no way" with Villenueve attached or not.  And Villenueve's track record does show a pattern of gaps between Telluride appearances.  So BR 2049 is no cinch for a T-ride play.

Chances: 30%

And at this point, if BR 2049 does NOT play, I doubt Warners has a film at the fest in 2017.

Paramount Pictures has a spotty Telluride resume:

Arrival played in 2016
Anomalisa in 2015
Labor Day 2013
Up in the Air 2009

Paramount has, in my estimation, three films that they could be interested in bringing to Telluride:

Alexander Payne's Downsizing
George Clooney's Suburbicon
Darren Aronfsky's mother!

All three film makers have been at Telluride within the last few years.  Payne has become a regular and as you can see from the Ten Bets above, I expect him back again this year with Downsizing.

Clooney was in Telluride in 2011 with Payne's The Descendants.  Clooney was a tribute recipient that year but hasn't returned.

Aronofsky sneaked Black Swan at the fest in 2010.

Chances:

Downsizing 75%
Suburbicon 30%
mother! 25%


BREATHE WILL OPEN BFI-LONDON FEST

We saw the first signs of Andy Serkis' directing debut yesterday with the trailer for Breathe and the announcement from the BFI-London Film Fest that it would open there on Oct. 4th as an European Premiere meaning that it will world premiere somewhere previously not on the European continent. That almost certainly means a play at Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.

My bet, at the moment is Toronto.

The film is being distributed by Bleeker Street Media which partnered with Netflix in 2015 to release Beasts of No Nation.

Here's the trailer for Breathe from YouTube:

And that's a wrap for Friday.  Enjoy your weekend.


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Telluride and The New York Times 25 Best Films of the 21st Century / Oscar's Foreign Language Race and Labor Day

Welcome back from the weekend...

TELLURIDE AND THE NEW YORK TIMES 25 BEST FILMS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The New York Times got social media going over the last few days as they posted a list of what A.O. Scott and Manohla Dargis have determined are the 25 best films that have been released since the calendar rolled over to the new century.  

It will likely not surprise you that a good number of those films had ties to TFF.  For example, their too choice is Paul Thomas Anderson's masterpiece There Will Be Blood as the top film.  As many TFFers will recall, TWBB scenes were screened in 2007 as a part of the tribute that year to Daniel Day Lewis.

Other films that make the NYT list with Telluride histories include:

#2 Spirited Away played Telluride in 2002.

#6 Yi Yi 2000

#11 Inside Llewyn Davis 2013

#14 L'enfant 2005

#17 Three Times 2005

#20 Moonlight 2016

#22 I'm Not There 2007

So better than a third of the list (8/25) made a stop in the San Juans in their journey to the NYT list (if you include TWBB, which I do).

The complete NYT list of 25 with commentary from Scott and Dargis is linked here.

OSCARS FOREIGN LANGUAGE RACE, FESTS AND LABOR DAY

Shane Slater at Awards Circuit posted an interesting article over the weekend with some thoughts about the major fests that have already come and gone and the impact that they might have on the foreign language Oscar race.

As a result, we can look at some of those as potential titles for TFF.  

Slater mentions films from Sundance, Berlin, Tribeca and Cannes.

From those films he mentions these probably have the best T-ride shot:

The Other Side of Hope 

Spoor

Loveless

120 BPM

The Square

Happy End

Check out the entire post from Awards Circuit here.

That's Monday...

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