Telluride and The New York Times 25 Best Films of the 21st Century / Oscar's Foreign Language Race and Labor Day

Welcome back from the weekend...

TELLURIDE AND THE NEW YORK TIMES 25 BEST FILMS OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The New York Times got social media going over the last few days as they posted a list of what A.O. Scott and Manohla Dargis have determined are the 25 best films that have been released since the calendar rolled over to the new century.  

It will likely not surprise you that a good number of those films had ties to TFF.  For example, their too choice is Paul Thomas Anderson's masterpiece There Will Be Blood as the top film.  As many TFFers will recall, TWBB scenes were screened in 2007 as a part of the tribute that year to Daniel Day Lewis.

Other films that make the NYT list with Telluride histories include:

#2 Spirited Away played Telluride in 2002.

#6 Yi Yi 2000

#11 Inside Llewyn Davis 2013

#14 L'enfant 2005

#17 Three Times 2005

#20 Moonlight 2016

#22 I'm Not There 2007

So better than a third of the list (8/25) made a stop in the San Juans in their journey to the NYT list (if you include TWBB, which I do).

The complete NYT list of 25 with commentary from Scott and Dargis is linked here.

OSCARS FOREIGN LANGUAGE RACE, FESTS AND LABOR DAY

Shane Slater at Awards Circuit posted an interesting article over the weekend with some thoughts about the major fests that have already come and gone and the impact that they might have on the foreign language Oscar race.

As a result, we can look at some of those as potential titles for TFF.  

Slater mentions films from Sundance, Berlin, Tribeca and Cannes.

From those films he mentions these probably have the best T-ride shot:

The Other Side of Hope 

Spoor

Loveless

120 BPM

The Square

Happy End

Check out the entire post from Awards Circuit here.

That's Monday...

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Distribution: The Weinstein Company/Fassbender Takes on The Dude/First International Trailer for "The Club"

It's Wednesday people...getting marginally closer to Labor Day weekend.


We continue our look at film distributors with Telluride track records...



DISTRIBUTION: FREQUENT DISTRIBS AT TELLURIDE: THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY

Tracking the Weinsteins as distributors at Telluride for the past decade shows us that they've been a part of The SHOW for a good long while.  Here's their Telluride slate as Miramax or The Weinstein Company or Radius-TWC since 2006:


2006: Venus
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2009: The Road
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist, Butter
2012: The Sapphires  (also was represented during the Marion Cotillard tribute by James Gray and 5 min. of The Immigrant)
2013: The Unknown Known, Salinger, Tracks
2014: The Imitation Game", "Escobar: Paradise Lost"

15 films in nine years.  That's an average of 1.7 films per year with at least one film every year of the nine.  Also, they had a great back-to-back Telluride run in 2010 and 2011 with ultimate Oscar Best Picture winners "The King's Speech" and "The Artist" playing in Telluride.  Last year's "The Imitation Game" was nominated for eight Academy Awards and won for Graham Moore's adapted screenplay.

So, what might we see from TWC in eight weeks time?

They have Todd Haynes "Carol" which wowed at Cannes as well as Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" which also played in competition at Cannes and received excellent notices for stars Marion Cotillard and Michael Fassbender.  Additionally, Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight", "John Wells' "Adam Jones".

Radius-TWC doesn't currently list any project on IMDb that would be Telluride ready.

So where does that leave us?

I think "Carol" is a pretty solid guess for Telluride.  "Macbeth" is also a real possibility.  Everything is else is less so.  "Hateful" is not likely to be ready.  "Adam Jones" doesn't seem, to me anyway, to have the gravitas for T-ride.

Chances with current "Ten Bets" status listed in parenthesis where applicable:

"Carol" 75% (#3)
"Macbeth" 55%
"The Hateful Eight" 25%
"Adam Jones" 25%

Tomorrow a look at Sundance Selects/IFC FIlms.


FASSBENDER TAKES ON THE DUDE

For a while now, Telluride favorite Jason Reitman has staged live reads of various films.  He's mostly done it in L.A. but has occasionally ventured to other places.  In the past few days we have learned that he will stage a live read of the Coen Brothers' "The Big Lebowski" in Montreal for a comedy festival there on July 24th.

And we know now who will be reading "the Dude", none other than Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender.  Patton Oswalt has also been announced as Walter Sobchak, the John Goodman role with other roles/actors to be announced.

Also, we learned via The Playlist (story below) that Fassbender was up for and auditioned for the title role in the Coen's 2013 Telluride-selected "Inside Llewyn Davis".  That would have been interesting, though, as bog a fan as I am of Fassbender's work, and I am a huge fan, I can't imagine the role in any other hands but those of Oscar Isaac.


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-fassbender-will-play-the-dude-in-jason-reitmans-live-read-of-the-big-lebowski-20150707

FIRST INTERNATIONAL TRAILER FOR "THE CLUB"

Pablo Larrain's "The Club" won the Silver Bear at Berlin in February and that combined with Larrain's play at Telluride in 2012 with "No" (he was also a producer for 2013's "Gloria") makes me think we should consider it as a potential lineup choice for TFF #42.

Additionally, U.S. distribution is in the hands of Music Box Films which has a small but notable Telluride resume including Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film "Ida" and "Fifi Howls from Happiness" in 2013 and "The Story of Film" in 2011.

"The Club" deals with secrets in the Catholic Church in South America.

The Playlist covered the release of the film's international trailer yesterday and the story and the trailer are here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-international-trailer-for-pablo-larrains-berlin-film-festival-award-winning-the-club-20150707


That's all for today...more on Thursday...

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The Film Awards Clearinghouse-Oscar 2014 Predictions/Rudderless Sets Sail

Welcome to Thursday!

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE-OSCAR WINNING PREDICTIONS

Well, we all know what the nominees are.  Now begins the nearly six week long process of determining Oscar winners.  The ceremony is set for Mar. 2nd (particularly late this year, reportedly to avoid conflicting with the presentation of the Winter Olympics).  Final ballots don't even go out until the middle of February.

All of that is to get to this...a first look at who or what the experts think the winners will be on Mar. 2nd.

For this first pass at predicting Oscars winners, I have drawn on six of the nine experts I have used throughout the season.  This is for a variety of reasons.  Of the three experts I usually use, some haven't updated their predictions yet or are predicting only in a limited fashion.  So, the six experts that I have used to calibrate this first set of Oscar winner predictions are:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Films/actors are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  I also am focused on 13 categories with the majority of the technical and shorts categories on hold for the moment.

Telluride Films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) American Hustle
2) 12 Years a Slave
3) Gravity
4) Captain Phillips
5) Nebraska
6) The wolf of Wall Street
7) Philomena
8) Dallas Buyers Club
9) Her

Comment:  Best Picture is perceived to be a real barn burner.  In raw numbers "Hustle" and "12 Years" were actually tied.  "Hustle" edged into the top spot on a tie breaker.  "Gravity" is also very, very close.  Personally, I still think "12 Years a Slave" is going to win the Best Picture Oscar.  You can also find someone as an advocate for the potential "spoiler" scenarios for almost every one of the other six films nominated.  My personal "left field" pick is "Dallas Buyers Club".  Its Film Editing nomination as well as its likely win in two acting categories tells me that the Academy really loves this film.

DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
2) David O. Russell/American Hustle
3) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
4) Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Alexander Payne/Nebraska

Comment: This group of experts is pretty convinced that there will be a split between Best Picture and Best Direction for the second straight year.  I'm not as convinced.  I still think that there's a reasonable chance that McQueen wins.  The DGA winner may point us to the eventual Oscar winner, but I don't even think that's carved in stone.

Last note, I might be okay with Cuaron winning this instead of McQueen.  Putting "Gravity" together is an impressive feat.

ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity
3) Amy Adams/American Hustle
4) Judi Dench/Philomena
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

Comment: Blanchett is the first of six nominees that are unanimous choices in their categories at this point. She's the very definition of a prohibitive favorite.  At this point, anyone else winning this category on Oscar night would rank as an historic upset.

ACTOR

1) Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf if Wall Street
5) Christian Bale/American Hustle

Comment: McConaughey is a strong favorite here, but it's not unanimous.  There's a significant amount of support for Ejiofor and a Bruce Dern win isn't completely out of the question.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
3) June Squibb/Nebraska
4) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County

Comment:  I'm more than a little surprised that Nyong'o is a unanimous favorite in this category.  All six of my experts say she'll win.  Frankly, I think that it's a lot closer than that between her and Lawrence.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
3) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle
4) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips
5) Jonah Hill/American Hustle

Comment: Leto is the unanimous choice here.  Any other winner would be a shock.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle
2) Her
3) Nebraska
4) Blue Jasmine
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment:  This is a pretty tough category between the top three screenplays.  On Oscar night, I think that this might actually be the only Oscar that "Hustle" wins.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Philomena
3) The Wolf of Wall Street
4) Captain Phillips
5) Before Midnight

Comment: John Ridley's "12 Years a Slave" script is the unanimous choice to win this category.

FILM EDITING

1) Gravity
2) American Hustle
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) Captain Phillips
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment: "Gravity" isn't a unanimous choice, but it's pretty close.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity
2) Inside Llewyn Davis
3) Nebraska
4) Prisoners
5) The Grandmaster

Comment: "Gravity" is a unanimous choice.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Hunt (TFF #39)
2) The Great Beauty
3) The Broken Circle Breakdown
4) Omar
5) The Missing Picture

Comment:  Any of the top three could win.  The category is very, very tight.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen
2) The Wind Rises
3) The Croods
4) Despicable Me 2
5) Ernest and Celestine

Comment: "Frozen" is the sixth film in these 13 categories that is a unanimous pick to win.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Feet from Stardom
2) The Act of Killing (TFF #39)
3) The Square
4) Dirty Wars
5) Cutie and the Boxer

Comment:  "20 Feet" is a strong favorite.

The FAC says (in these 13 categories) that  "Gravity" wins three, "12 Years" wins two,  "American Hustle" wins two, "Dallas Buyers Club" wins two.

Should The FAC have this right (and remember , we're still over a month away) Telluride films pick up five Oscars in these thirteen categories and I think "Slave" beats "Hustle" for the sixth.  Also, a win for "The Hunt" makes it another T-ride Oscar albeit from TFF #39.

RUDDERLESS SETS SAIL

Well, it is finally upon us.  Oklahoma generated film "Rudderless" closes The Sundance Film Festival tomorrow night.  It's been awhile in coming.  I've been talking about it, off and on, for almost four years.  I met co-author Casey Twenter in Kansas City in the summer of 2010 after we had been emailing for a number of months.  Casey had contacted me because he'd found the blog and was interested in Telluride. Over the years, I've been privileged to read two different versions of the script and follow, at a distance, the ups and downs along the way.  It's been a hell of a ride.  There have been a number of incarnations featuring different directing, producing and acting possibilities...stuff I really can't write about.

I am very happy for Casey and his writing partner Jeff Robison who were fortunate to have William H. Macy fall in love with the script.  I'll tell you, that fortune is only a small part of the story.  It was always a good script and Macy is fortunate to have had it fall into his lap and recognize the quality.

"Rudderless" has actually already screened for industry types and the first word is oozing out of corners (including an actual review at /Film (Slashfilm).  The "early ooze" seems pretty positive.

/Film review:

Here's  sample of some of the commentary from the review by /Film writer Germain Lussier:

"Rudderless...a complex story of love, loss, friendship and music"

"it's a touching movie with a fantastic lead performance and even better music."

"Macy is in control of our emotions"

"There is a lot to like about Rudderless"

I have friends who, I think, thought I was putting them on at times over these last four years; who didn't believe that the project existed, took place in Oklahoma, would ever make it in front of cameras or would find its way to a theater.  Well, tomorrow night in Park City, Utah, all those doubts will be put to rest.

I'll be anxiously awaiting to see the critical response and to see what distribution outfit picks the film up...come on TWC, Fox Searchlight and SPC.

Congratulations Casey and Jeff...you dreamed it and it's about to happen!  On behalf of all of us on the fringe of the film business and who harbor dreams of being a little less on the fringe, thanks!  "Rudderless" gives us all hope!

Finally, a note to Gary Meyer, Julie Huntsinger and Telluride programmers...I know that the Sundance/Telluride crossover film is very rare (seems like it happens about once every five years or so) and the last one was "An Education" (2009)...so, if the eventual distributor hasn't already released this film by Labor Day...TFF #41?  Give it a thought.

More on Monday...have a good weekend!

The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2014 Vol. 5-The Major Categories/HitFix's 25 "Prestige" 2014 Titles/McQueen and Cuaron

Good Monday Everybody...

I'm back to the "real world" today as classes resume and I start the second semester for this academic year. It's going to get busy!

Nevertheless, MTFB goes on as scheduled beginning with an update of Oscar predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the six major categories.

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL.5-MAJOR CATEGORIES

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts as the metric for The FAC:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) 12 Years A Slave (1)
2) Gravity (2)
3) American Hustle (3)
4) Nebraska (4)
5) Captain Phillips (5)
6) Wolf of Wall Street (6)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)
8) Saving Mr. Banks (7)
9) Her (9)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (10)
11) Lee Daniels' The Butler (12)
12) Philomena (11)
13) Blue Jasmine (14)
14) August: Osage County (15)
15) Fruitvale Station (13)

Comment:  No film drops out from our last look at this category and there hasn't been drastic movement.  Clearly the news of this past week's snubs of "Inside Llewyn Davis" by the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild hasn't filtered into the predictions of the nine Oscar Experts that I use to put together the FAC.  I suspect that it will in the next week or so.  The Directors Guild announcement tomorrow may be "Llewyn's" last best chance to pull out a Best Picture nomination.

On the other hand, I have a theory that "Llewyn" may be exactly that kind of picture that may not engender love from all over the various parts of the 6,000 Academy members, but may have enough passionate supporters to get it a Best Picture nomination irrespective of what the Guilds have been saying.  As a number of Oscar bloggers have pointed out, if a film can get 300 #1 votes, it's a nominee and it doesn't much matter what the other 5,700+ Academy members think.  That's universally assumed to be the explanation for the Best Picture nomination for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" a couple of years ago.

It's wroth thinking about.

It's also worth noting that the nomination ballot deadline is Wednesday.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity (1)
2) Steve McQueen/12 Years a  Slave (2)
3) David O. Russell/American Hustle (5)
4) Paul Greengrass/Captain Phillips (3)
5) Martin Scorsese/Wolf of Wall Street (4)
6) Alexander Payne/Nebraska (6)
7) Joel and Ethan Coen/Inside Llewyn Davis (7)
8) Spike Jonze/Her (8)
9) John Lee Hancock/Saving Mr. Banks (9)
10) Lee Daniels/Lee Daniels' The Butler (10)

Comment: Russell makes a substantial move.  I think the Scorsese and Greengrass support may be soft which likely opens the door for Payne.  Coens need some DGA help tomorrow.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine (1)
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity (2)
3) Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) Judi Dench/Philomena (4)
5) Meryl Streep/August:Osage County (5)
6) Amy Adams/American Hustle (6)
7) Brie Larson/Short Term 12 (7)
8) Adele Exarchopolous/Blue is the Warmest Color (8)

9) Kate Winslet/Labor Day (9)

10) Julie Delpy/Before Midnight (10)

Comment:  Is there a little softening in the notion that Meryl Streep's nomination is a lock?  In a category that has been remarkably consistent for months, that seems to be the only suspense at this point.  

Additionally, Blanchett has been on top (way on top) in EVERY FAC.  She gets a perfect score on The FAC metric again this time around (as do the leaders in both Supporting categories in this edition of The FAC).

BEST ACTOR

1) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club (3)

3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska (2)

4) Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips (5)

5) Robert Redford/All is Lost (4)

6) Leonardo DiCaprio/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

7) Forest Whitaker/Lee Daniels' The Butler (6)

8) Christian Bale/American Hustle (8)

9) Oscar Isaac/Inside Llewyn Davis (9)

10) Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station (10)

Comment:  Redford's spot seems to still be shaky and although the latest number crunching suggests that DiCaprio is the most likely beneficiary, I'm keeping my eye on Bale and even Joaquin Phoenix for "Her".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (2)

3) Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels' The Butler (3)

4) June Squibb/Nebraska (4)

5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (5)

6) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (7)

7) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station (6)

8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (8)

9) Scarlett Johansson/Her (9)

10) Lea Seydoux/Blue is the Warmest Color (New)

Comment: Margot Robbie (Wolf) drops off the top ten in this category.  Frankly, I think the only locks are Nyong'o and Lawrence.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (1)

2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave (2)

3) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips (3)

4) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (5)

5) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (8)

6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (6)

7) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (4)

8) Jonah Hill/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

9) Will Forte/Nebraska (9)

10) James Franco/Spring Breakers (New)

Comment: Jake Gyllenhaal's "Prisoners" performance drops off the FAC.  This is the most fluid of any major category at this point with a big jump for Bradley Cooper and a big dive for Tom Hanks.  As I have said, I think "Mr. Banks" has been losing gas for about a month and this would seem to provide a little gas to the theory.  Cooper's rise underlines the general warm up for "American Hustle" as does Russell's movement in the directing category.  I've been saying for a good long time that I think "American Hustle" is the film that has a chance to knock off "12 Years" not "Gravity".  Some of the pros seem to be coming around to that possibility as well.

Bottom line, though, I still think "12 Years" is going to win the Big Prize on Mar. 2.

Finally, my bold prediction that TFF #40 films would get 40 nominations may be in some serious jeopardy. With "Llewyn" in trouble and Redford also looking more dicey, 40 nominations may not be achievable after all.

In all, in these six major categories and if these metrics were 100% accurate on Jan. 16 Telluride #40 films would have 13 nominations with another seven possibilities.

Next edition of MTFB/FAC will look at where we stand in Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.

HITFIX AND 25 "PRESTIGE" PICTURES FOR 2014...AND TFF #41?

Last week HitFix posted 25 films that were their "most anticipated" for 2014.  They've followed that up this week with a listing of 25 "Prestige" films that they're looking forward to and I thought it would be interesting to parse those for possible Telluride #41 titles.  So here's what they listed that seems to me to have some T-ride potential for 9 months from now:

# 20-Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  It's produced by See Saw and distributed by The Weinstein's, both of which make it at least a possibility.

#15-Alejandro Gonazalez Inarritu's "Birdman".  Frankly, I'll be surprised if this is NOT at Telluride unless Inarritus' foray into comedy (that's right, it's a comedy) proves too great a stretch for the man behind "Babel", "Biutiful" and "21 Grams".  That's a valid concern looking at his body of work.

#14-"Untitled Noah Baumbach/Greta Gerwig School Project".  Again, I'd kind of b surprised if this doesn't play at Telluride.  Baumbach and Gerwig's "Frances Ha" was well received at TFF #39 and Baumbach has a previous history with the fest.

#9-Mike Leigh's "Mr. Turner".  The third straight film to list here that I think is almost a lock to play Telluride.  Leigh has been a frequent guest of the fest, so I expect him to be back with this film about artist J.M.W. Turner.

#8-Thomas Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd".  This one isn't as solid a lock as the previous three but Vinterberg's "The Hunt" played well at TFF #39 and could still be a Best Foreign Language Oscar nominee in a few days.  It probably doesn't hurt that Carey Mulligan has been a Telluride gust previously with "An Education" and "Never Let Me Go".  Fox Searchlight is producing which could also decide to try to place the film in the Telluride lineup.

#7-Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  Admittedly, I may be wishing for this to be true much more than it's real chances to play.  This film was included on the HitFix list last week as well.  Again, Miller and Sony Pictures Classics make it a not completely unrealistic possibility.

#4- Todd Haynes' "Carol".  Mostly I've included this because Haynes' "I'm Not Here" played at Telluride in 2007 and The Weinstein's are distributing...also Film4 is part of the producing group. I'd just like to stoke the fires for a possible Cate Blanchett tribute.

There are other films in the list of 25 that I'd LIKE to see show up at the SHOW.  Their #1 is Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice"..yes please.  But I don't think that's terribly likely.  Others on the list that I'd like to see in the San Juans but seem on the unlikely side, at least at the moment:
Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" (although friend of the blog Christopher Schiller thinks it might be a possibility), David Fincher's "Gone Girl", David Cronenberg's "Map to the Stars", Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" and Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken".

Finally, the article itself speculates that "Foxcatcher", "Birdman" and the Baumbach project could be Telluride material.

Find the article here:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/25-most-anticipated-prestige-films-of-2014-inherent-vice-nymphomaniac-the-grand-budapest-hotel



MC QUEEN AND CUARON

Here are major profiles of the two men who are expected to duke it out for the Best Director Oscar.  McQueen's is from The Guardian and Cuaron's if from The New York Times:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/jan/04/steve-mcqueen-my-painful-childhood-shame

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/movies/awardsseason/alfonso-cuaron-discusses-his-films.html?smid=tw-nytmovies&seid=auto&_r=0

BREAKING: NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS LOVES LLEWYN

BREAKING:

The National Society of Film Critics handed The Coen Brothers' "Inside Llewyn Davis" a number of their awards yesterday.  The critical recognition comes in the wake of a week in which the film was not recognized by either The Producers Guild nor The Writers Guild nominations.

The Directors Guild announces their nominees on Tuesday.  That's the next major announcement could provide both a window to probable Oscar nominees and, perhaps, the last big push P.R. wise for films before voting for Oscar nominations ends.  Nominations will be announced the morning of Jan. 16.  Here are the awards announced by The NSFC yesterday and a link to analysis from HitFix/InContention and Awards Daily.

Picture: “Inside Llewyn Davis” (23)
Runners-up: “American Hustle” (17); “12 Years a Slave” (16); “Her” (16)

Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (25)
Runners-up: Alfonso Cuaron, “Gravity” (18); Steve McQueen, “12 Years a Slave” (15)

Actor: Oscar Isaac, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (28)
Runners-up: Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a Slave” (19); Robert Redford, “All Is Lost” (12)

Actress: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine” (57)
Runners-up: Adele Exarchopoulos, “Blue Is the Warmest Color” (36); Julie Delpy, “Before Midnight” (26)

Supporting Actor: James Franco, “Spring Breakers” (24)
Runners-up: Jared Leto, “Dallas Buyers Club” (20); Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips” (14)

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, “American Hustle” (54)
Runners-up: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave” (38); Sally Hawkins, “Blue Jasmine” (18); Lea Seydoux, “Blue Is the Warmest Color” (18)

Screenplay: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy, “Before Midnight” (29)
Runners-up: Joel and Ethan Coen, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (26); Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, “American Hustle” (18)

Foreign-language film: “Blue Is the Warmest Color” (27)
Runners-up: “A Touch of Sin” (21); “The Great Beauty” (15)

Nonfiction: “The Act of Killing” and “At Berkeley” (tie, 20)
Runner-up: “Leviathan” (18)

Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, “Inside Llewyn Davis” (28)
Runners-up: Emmanuel Lubezki, “Gravity” (26); Phedon Papamichael, “Nebraska” (17)

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/inside-llewyn-davis-jennifer-lawrence-and-james-franco-earn-key-nfsc-wins

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/national-society-of-film-critic-awards/#more-70346

2014: The Oscars and TFF #40/Looking to TFF #41/Trailers from TFF #40/Conversations: Dern and Mulligan/Sound and Silence at Telluride

Good 2014 to Everyone...

I hope all the readers/followers and peeps that just stumbled onto this space had a safe and joyous start to their New Year.  The CEO and I saw in 2014 by watching the last few episodes of "Breaking Bad". Good stuff.  Hale Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.


2014: THE OSCARS AND TFF #40

As we wait for the next two weeks for Oscar nomination morning (Jan. 16), I'll be posting Oscar prediction updates in each of the posts between now and then.  Today...looking at a different metric.  Just to see what it would tell me, I've put together the results of "Best Film" announcements from: The National Board of Review, The American Film Institute, The New York Film Critics Circle, The Los Angeles Film Critics, The HFPA's Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.

Working with the choices from these six organizations and setting a standard that possible nominees had to be named by at least 2 of them, here's what they reveal as the "probable" Oscar nominees on Jan. 16.

Best Picture:  Four films were named four times and would, therefore seem the most likely nominees: "12 Years a Slave", "Gravity", "American Hustle" and "Her".

Three films have three mentions: "Nebraska", "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "The Wolf of Wall Street"

Three films are mentioned twice: "Captain Phillips", "Fruitvale Station" and "Saving Mr. Banks".

How accurate is this method?  I have no real idea as I've never tried it before.  I can tell you that in 2012 the same method would have suggested that the Best Picture nominees would be: "Argo", "Django Unchained", "The Life of Pi", "Lincoln", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Les Miserables", "Moonrise Kingdom", Silver Linings Playbook", "Beats of the Southern Wild" and "The Exotic Marigold Hotel" (seriously).

As you remember, the actual nominees included "Amour" and excluded "Moonrise" and "Marigold".  So this metric would have predicted 8 of the 9 Best Picture nominees last year.

Monday, I'll post an update for the Big Eight categories using my usual methods.

Finally, Kris Tapley at HitFix/InContention reminds us that the Producers Guild announces their nominees today.

LOOKING TO TFF #41

It's never too early to begin thinking about what might be on the bill of fare for the next Telluride Film Festival.  Even though we're still eight months away, we can begin to parse various pieces of information and start speculating.

For example, HitFix posted their "25 Most Anticipated Movies of 2014".  Form their list we can glean some films that have the potential to make the grade at TFF #41.  Obviously, there are some films that aren't likely, Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" for example...although, after seeing "Gravity" at T-ride last year, maybe I shouldn't close that door.  You can find the HitFix complete list here:

http://www.hitfix.com/motion-captured/25-most-anticipated-movies-of-2014-interstellar-x-men-mockingjay

From their list, films that could conceivably be on Telluride's radar include:

#24 "Foxcatcher"...yea, yea...I know.  I had this on the TFF #40 list for most of last year and then the decision came down to move the film to 2014.  The chances of it being held for an awards friendly release date are probably pretty good (it doesn't have an announced release date to the best of my knowledge) and as I have pointed out before, Bennett Miller had a decent run after "Capote" showed at the SHOW in 2005 and to top it off, its U.S. distributor is Sony Pictures Classics so call it a "maybe".

The only other two on the HitFix list that seem to have some Telluride "feel" are Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" at #16 and Jon Stewart's (of The Daily Show) "Rosewater" at #8 and neither one would seem to be particularly strong candidate for Telluride inclusion based on the filmmakers, studios and distributors known to be involved at this time.

A COUPLE OF TRAILERS FROM TFF #40

One of the more popular, if not THE most popular film that screened at Telluride last Labor Day was Penn and teller's documentary "Tim's Vermeer".  It's in the conversation for a Best Feature Doc Oscar nomination and it's safe to say that Telluride audiences loved it.  It topped my "People's Telluride" film ratings with a 4.67 average rank on the five point scale, beating "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity".

The Playlist linked to the trailer for the film in this story this week:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-trailer-for-acclaimed-oscar-contending-documentary-tims-vermeer-20131230

Meanwhile, one of the most divisive and least well received films of the fest also put up a trailer this week.  Jonathan Glazer's "Under the Skin" was dead last (of the 21 films that got enough ratings to warrant inclusion on the list) on The People's Telluride ratings with a 2.0.  I actually admired the film.  I think it succeeded in creating the world that Glazer wanted us to experience.

Thompson on Hollywood reported that the film will be released April 4 and also linked to its trailer here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/under-the-skin-jonathan-glazer-release-date-a24


CONVERSATIONS

Two of my favorite films from TFF #40 continue to get a lot of ink as the awards season goes on and that includes continuing interviews with the stars of "Nebraska" and "Inside Llewyn Davis".

Bruce Dern's awards offensive included an interview with Walter Scott of Parade that you can find here:

http://www.parade.com/243081/walterscott/bruce-derns-take-on-hollywood-today-you-cant-be-bigger-than-life/

And Carey Mulligan talked to Steve Pond of The Wrap about "Llewyn" (and includes a brief mention of TFF #41 possible film "Far From the Madding Crowd"):

http://www.thewrap.com/carey-mulligan-coen-brothers-inside-llewyn-davis-nasty-girl-swear-words


SOUND AND SILENCE AT TELLURIDE

Deadline put up a story this week about their take on the use of silence in films this past year and the impact that could have on the Sound Editing Oscar field.  The three films they focused on: "Gravity", "All is Lost" and "12 Years a Slave"...Telluride much?

Here's the link to that story:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-sound-editing-gravity-12-years-a-slave-all-is-lost/


More on Monday and Happy New Year one more time.

Loads of Goodies: Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave, Feinberg

Good Monday and the last Monday of 2013...Happy New Year everyone.

LOADS OF GOODIES AT YEAR'S END

The blog has a lot of goodies to link to today but I wanted to start with a quick note that I will post atop ten list for 2013 sometime in early 2014.  I still have a couple of films I want to see before making out my list (i.e.: "Her" and "wolf of Wall Street").  If I get lucky, that could happen relatively soon.

Also, I'll re-visit the Top Six Oscar categories next week and each post thereafter, as we approach the nominations announcement set for Jan. 16.  Oscar nominating ballots went out on Friday, so the process has begun.

NEBRASKA GOODIES

The Bruce Dern Happening continues and I have included links to this interview with the 77 year old star of Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" from Gregory E. Miller and The New York Post:

http://nypost.com/2013/12/26/its-derns-turn-veteran-actor-gets-inside-treatment/

Meanwhile. Deadline's Anna Lisa Raya talks to Payne about the film here:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-alexander-payne-nebraska-interview/

INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS GOODIES

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere tweeted this pic, purportedly real, from Dave Itzkoff, purportedly in Minneapolis...I want it to be true.

The Wrap's Steve Pond looks and links to an "Inside Llewyn Davis" featurette about the music of the movie, which is a character unto itself:

http://www.thewrap.com/Coen-Brothers-T-Bone-Burnett-Inside-Llewyn-Davis


GRAVITY GOODIES

Speaking of featurettes, Kristopher Tapley at HitFix links to a new one for "Gravity" that focuses on the story and screenplay:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/new-gravity-featurette-focuses-on-story-and-screenplay

Meanwhile, Deadline's Christy Grosz talks to "Gravity director and co-writer Alfonso Cuaron:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-alfonso-cuaron-gravity-interview/


12 YEARS A SLAVE GOODIES

Here's an interview with "12 Years a Slave" director Steve McQueen from Deadline's Pete Hammond:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-steve-mcqueen-12-years-a-slave-intervew/


OSCAR GOODIES

Scott Feinberg, resident Oscar expert for The Hollywood Reporter has filed his latest projections for his Feinberg Forecast here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/feinberg-forecast-oscar-race-heats-667616

Feinberg's latest snapshot of the Oscar race includes predictions in 16 of the 21 feature categories.  He doesn't include predictions for Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Costume or Production Design.

That being noted, Feinberg predicts 8 nominations in those 16 categories fro "12 Years a Salve" followed by "Gravity", "American Hustle" and "Captain Phillips" with 6 apiece.  Feinberg suggests four nominations each for: "Saving Mr. Banks", "Dallas Buyers Club" and "Nebraska" and 3 each for "The Wolf of Wall Street" and "Inside Llewyn Davis".

Telluride films in Feinberg's view:

"12 Years a Slave" with 8 nominations and 3 wins.
"Gravity" with 6 nominations and 3 wins
"Nebraska" with 4 nominations.
"Inside Llewyn Davis" with 3 nominations.
Single nominations for "All is Lost", "The Wind Rises", "Tim's Vermeer", "The Missing Picture".

TFf #39 nominations for "The Act of Killing" and "The Hunt".

Of course, I think these totals will be larger as the other five categories are included.


More coming in 2014!

The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2013 Vol. 4 Part Two-Under the Line...

The Film Awards Clearinghouse-Complete Part Two

I’m continuing the report from The Film Awards Clearinghouse that I started yesterday by looking at the “under the line” categories for the first time in a comprehensive fashion for this awards season.  The exception is in Makeup/Hair where I have included the Academy Short List of films.

As always, I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Telluride #40 films are Bold.

FILM EDITING

1) Gravity

2) 12 Years a Slave

3) Captain Phillips

4) American Hustle

5) Rush

6) The Wolf of Wall Street

7) All is Lost

8) Inside Llewyn Davis

9) Her

10) Nebraska

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity

2) Inside Llewyn Davis (TIE)

2) 12 Years a Slave

4) Prisoners

5) Captain Phillips

6) Nebraska

7) Rush

8) Her

9) All is Lost

10) The Wolf of Wall Street

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 12 Years a Slave

2) The Great Gatsby

3) Saving Mr. Banks

4) The Hobbit: Smaug

5) Inside Llewyn Davis

6) Gravity

7) Her

8) American Hustle

9) The Invisible Woman

10) Oz: The Great and Powerful

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Gravity

2) 12 Years a Slave

3) Saving Mr. Banks

4) The Book Thief

5) Philomena

6) Captain Phillips

7) All is Lost

8) Her

9) Monsters University

10) Rush

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Let It Go/Frozen

2) Young and Beautiful/The Great Gatsby

3) So You Know What It’s Like/Short Term 12

4) Amen/All Is Lost

5) The Moon Song/Her

6) Happy/Despicable Me 2

7) I See the Fire/The Hobbit: Smaug

8) You and I Ain’t Nothin’ No More/Lee Daniels The Butler

9) Ordinary Love/Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

10) In the Middle of the Night/Lee Daniels The Butler

COSTUMES

1) 12 Years a Slave

2) American Hustle

3) The Great Gatsby

4) Saving Mr. Banks

5) Inside Llewyn Davis

6) Lee Daniels The Butler

7) The Invisible Woman

8) The Hobbit: Smaug

9) Oz: The Great and Powerful

10) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Gravity

2) The Hobbit: Smaug

3) Pacific Rim

4) Iron Man 3

5) Star Trek Into Darkness

6) Elysium

7) World War Z

8) Oblivion

9) The Lone Ranger

10) Man of Steel

SOUND MIXING

1) Gravity

2) Rush

3) Captain Phillips

4) All is Lost

5) Inside Llewyn Davis

6) 12 Years a Slave

7) The Lone Ranger

8) Man of Steel

9) The Hobbit: Smaug

10) Pacific Rim

SOUND EDITING

1) Gravity

2) Captain Phillips

3) Rush

4) All is Lost

5) The Lone Ranger

6) Iron Man 3

7) Pacific Rim

8) Man of Steel

9) Star Trek Into Darkness

10) Oblivion

MAKEUP/HAIR (ACADEMY SHORT LIST in alphabetical order)

American Hustle

Dallas Buyers Club

The Great Gatsby

Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

The Lone Ranger

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Hunt (TFF #39)

2) Wadjda (TFF #39)

3) The Past

4) Gloria

5) The Great Beauty

6) The Broken Circle Breakdown

7) The Rocket

8) Bethlehem

9) Gabrielle

10) Ilo Ilo

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen

2) The Wind Rises

3) The Croods

4) Monsters University

5) Despicable Me 2

6) Ernest and Celestine

7) A Letter to Momo

8) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

9) Epic

10) O Apostolo

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Blackfish

2) Stories We Tell (TFF #39)

3) 20 Feet from Stardom

4) The Act of Killing (TFF #39)

5) The Square

6) Tim’s Vermeer

7) Cutie and the Boxer

8) The Armstrong Lie

9) After Tiller

10) God Loves Uganda

NOTES ON THIS EDITION OF THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE

*Telluride #40 films and what The FAC says:

“12 Years a Slave” gets 11 nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score and Costumes.  It also has a possibility for a Sound Mixing nomination.

“Gravity” gets 9 nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Film Editing, Cinematography, Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing.  It also is in the mix for Production Design and Original Screenplay nominations.

“Inside Llewyn Davis” gets 6 nominations: Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Sound Mixing.  It also has a chance to be nominated for Director, Actor and Film Editing.

“Nebraska” gets 4 nominations: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay.  It could also be nominated for Director, Supporting Actor, Film Editing and Cinematography.

“All is Lost” gets 4 nominations: Actor, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Song.  It’s also in the mix for nominations for Cinematography, Film Editing and Score.

Single nominations are predicted for: Prisoners (Cinematography…Prisoners also has a possibility for a nomination for Supporting Actor), The Past (Foreign Language), Gloria (Foreign Language) and The Wind Rises (Animated Feature).

I fully expect that we’ll see another nomination or two from the “Shorts” categories.  For example; “Get a Horse”.

Other TFF #40 film nomination possibilities:

“Blue is the Warmest Color” has 2 possible nominations for Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

“Labor Day” has 2 possible nominations for Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

“The Invisible Woman” has 2 possible nominations for Production Design and Costumes.

“Bethlehem” has a possible nomination for Best Foreign Language Film.

“Tim’s Vermeer” is a possible nominee for Feature Documentary.

TFF #39 is represented by nominations for Foreign Language Film for “The Hunt” and “Wadjda” as well as Documentary nominations for “Stories We Tell” and “The Act of Killing”.

That ultimately puts the TFF #40 totals at 38 nominations in the 21 "feature" categories with another 22 possible nominations. I'm going to continue to predict a total of 40 nominations for TFF #40.  It's very clear that Telluride is going to have the most Oscar nominations for its collective group of films this year than any year since I started doing this blog  and that almost certainly means the most nominations for any year in its 40 years of existence.

Finally, if we believe that the film that is ranked #1 in each category is likely to win the Oscar, The FAC says the following happens on March 2:

“12 Years” wins 6 Oscars: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design and Costumes.

“Gravity wins 7 Oscars: Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

“Frozen” wins 2 Oscars: Best Animated Feature and Original Song

Single Oscars would go to:

“Blue Jasmine”: Best Actress

“Dallas Buyers Club”: Best Supporting Actor

“Inside Llewyn Davis”: Original Screenplay

“The Hunt” wins Best Foreign Language Film

“Blackfish” wins Best Documentary Feature

Telluride #40 would have screened films with 14 wins plus another win for TFF #39 (The Hunt).

 More on Monday...