I hope all the readers/followers and peeps that just stumbled onto this space had a safe and joyous start to their New Year. The CEO and I saw in 2014 by watching the last few episodes of "Breaking Bad". Good stuff. Hale Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul.
2014: THE OSCARS AND TFF #40
As we wait for the next two weeks for Oscar nomination morning (Jan. 16), I'll be posting Oscar prediction updates in each of the posts between now and then. Today...looking at a different metric. Just to see what it would tell me, I've put together the results of "Best Film" announcements from: The National Board of Review, The American Film Institute, The New York Film Critics Circle, The Los Angeles Film Critics, The HFPA's Golden Globes and The Screen Actors Guild.
Working with the choices from these six organizations and setting a standard that possible nominees had to be named by at least 2 of them, here's what they reveal as the "probable" Oscar nominees on Jan. 16.
Best Picture: Four films were named four times and would, therefore seem the most likely nominees: "12 Years a Slave", "Gravity", "American Hustle" and "Her".
Three films have three mentions: "Nebraska", "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Three films are mentioned twice: "Captain Phillips", "Fruitvale Station" and "Saving Mr. Banks".
How accurate is this method? I have no real idea as I've never tried it before. I can tell you that in 2012 the same method would have suggested that the Best Picture nominees would be: "Argo", "Django Unchained", "The Life of Pi", "Lincoln", "Zero Dark Thirty", "Les Miserables", "Moonrise Kingdom", Silver Linings Playbook", "Beats of the Southern Wild" and "The Exotic Marigold Hotel" (seriously).
As you remember, the actual nominees included "Amour" and excluded "Moonrise" and "Marigold". So this metric would have predicted 8 of the 9 Best Picture nominees last year.
Monday, I'll post an update for the Big Eight categories using my usual methods.
Finally, Kris Tapley at HitFix/InContention reminds us that the Producers Guild announces their nominees today.
LOOKING TO TFF #41
It's never too early to begin thinking about what might be on the bill of fare for the next Telluride Film Festival. Even though we're still eight months away, we can begin to parse various pieces of information and start speculating.
For example, HitFix posted their "25 Most Anticipated Movies of 2014". Form their list we can glean some films that have the potential to make the grade at TFF #41. Obviously, there are some films that aren't likely, Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" for example...although, after seeing "Gravity" at T-ride last year, maybe I shouldn't close that door. You can find the HitFix complete list here:
http://www.hitfix.com/motion-captured/25-most-anticipated-movies-of-2014-interstellar-x-men-mockingjay
From their list, films that could conceivably be on Telluride's radar include:
#24 "Foxcatcher"...yea, yea...I know. I had this on the TFF #40 list for most of last year and then the decision came down to move the film to 2014. The chances of it being held for an awards friendly release date are probably pretty good (it doesn't have an announced release date to the best of my knowledge) and as I have pointed out before, Bennett Miller had a decent run after "Capote" showed at the SHOW in 2005 and to top it off, its U.S. distributor is Sony Pictures Classics so call it a "maybe".
The only other two on the HitFix list that seem to have some Telluride "feel" are Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" at #16 and Jon Stewart's (of The Daily Show) "Rosewater" at #8 and neither one would seem to be particularly strong candidate for Telluride inclusion based on the filmmakers, studios and distributors known to be involved at this time.
A COUPLE OF TRAILERS FROM TFF #40
One of the more popular, if not THE most popular film that screened at Telluride last Labor Day was Penn and teller's documentary "Tim's Vermeer". It's in the conversation for a Best Feature Doc Oscar nomination and it's safe to say that Telluride audiences loved it. It topped my "People's Telluride" film ratings with a 4.67 average rank on the five point scale, beating "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity".
The Playlist linked to the trailer for the film in this story this week:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-trailer-for-acclaimed-oscar-contending-documentary-tims-vermeer-20131230
Meanwhile, one of the most divisive and least well received films of the fest also put up a trailer this week. Jonathan Glazer's "Under the Skin" was dead last (of the 21 films that got enough ratings to warrant inclusion on the list) on The People's Telluride ratings with a 2.0. I actually admired the film. I think it succeeded in creating the world that Glazer wanted us to experience.
Thompson on Hollywood reported that the film will be released April 4 and also linked to its trailer here:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/under-the-skin-jonathan-glazer-release-date-a24
CONVERSATIONS
Two of my favorite films from TFF #40 continue to get a lot of ink as the awards season goes on and that includes continuing interviews with the stars of "Nebraska" and "Inside Llewyn Davis".
Bruce Dern's awards offensive included an interview with Walter Scott of Parade that you can find here:
http://www.parade.com/243081/walterscott/bruce-derns-take-on-hollywood-today-you-cant-be-bigger-than-life/
And Carey Mulligan talked to Steve Pond of The Wrap about "Llewyn" (and includes a brief mention of TFF #41 possible film "Far From the Madding Crowd"):
http://www.thewrap.com/carey-mulligan-coen-brothers-inside-llewyn-davis-nasty-girl-swear-words
SOUND AND SILENCE AT TELLURIDE
Deadline put up a story this week about their take on the use of silence in films this past year and the impact that could have on the Sound Editing Oscar field. The three films they focused on: "Gravity", "All is Lost" and "12 Years a Slave"...Telluride much?
Here's the link to that story:
http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-sound-editing-gravity-12-years-a-slave-all-is-lost/
More on Monday and Happy New Year one more time.
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