The 86th Oscars and Telluride: Analysis and Numbers

Well, we're digesting now.

TFF #40 hosted films with 33 Oscar nominations among them this morning plus an additional two from TFF #39.

"Gravity"-10
"12 Years a Slave"-9
"Nebraska"-6
"Inside Llewyn Davis"-2

One each for : "Prisoners", "The Wind Rises", "The Missing Picture", "The Invisible Woman", "All is Lost" and "Get a Horse!"

TFF #39 had "The Act of Killing" and "The Hunt"

After this morning's announcement of Oscar nominees there are a few takeaways.

1) The Academy spread the wealth, which, in a year that has such an abundance of quality films, makes sense.  Ten films had four or more nominations this morning.

2) "Inside Llewyn Davis" was not saved by the voting system.  I had a theory that, though the majority of Academy members didn't connect with the film, that there would be enough passionate devotees that it might pull a surprise Best Picture nomination.  Um...nope.

3) "American Hustle" looks like the film to beat at this point.  I have been pretty firm since I saw "12 Years a Slave" in Telluride that it was your Best Picture winner.  That seems possible still, but unlikely.

4) For the third straight year nine films were nominated which empirically indicates that we might now expect that every year.

Category by category.

BEST PICTURE: The FAC got all nine.  Nine films nominated.  No "Inside Llewyn Davis".  Boomlets for "Wolf", "Dallas" "Her" and "Philomena" were all real.

BEST DIRECTION: The FAC went 4 of 5.  Little surprised that Paul Greengrass missed but pleased about Payne.

BEST ACTRESS:  The FAC goes 4  of 5.  No Emma Thompson was a bit of a surprise.  ("Saving Mr. Banks" at one time looked to be a big Oscar player.  This morning it had only one nomination: Score).  Most thought that it was between Streep and Adams (#6 on last FAC)  for spot #5...guess not.

BEST ACTOR: The FAC 4 of 5. Bale in for Hanks in maybe the toughest category.  Would have liked to have seen Redford and Isaac.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  The FAC goes 4 of 5.  Hawkins gets in (she was #6 on the last FAC) displacing Oprah. (Lee Daniels The Butler gets the goose egg in all categories)

SUPPORTING ACTOR: The FAC 4 of 5.  Jonah Hill (from the #6 spot) in Daniel Bruhl: out...(read what I said here yesterday)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The FAC is perfect, 5 for 5.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The FAC gets 4 of 5.  The #6 Script, "Dallas" instead of "Llewyn".  I was afraid of that.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: The FAC hit 4 of 5 with "The Grandmaster" surging.  This was one of the places I thought "12 Years a Slave" would pick up a nomination.

FILM EDITING: The FAC goes 4 of 5.  "Dallas Buyers Club" came out of nowhere to get this nomination and it's a testament to how much The Academy must love this film.  As a matter of fact, "Dallas" might be your real sleeper for a Best Picture upset on Mar. 2.

PRODUCTION DESIGN: The FAC hits just 2 of 5.  Yikes!

ORIGINAL SONG:  The FAC goes 4 of 5...but I don't think anyone had "Alone Yet Not Alone" anywhere.

ORIGINAL SCORE: The FAC 4 of 5 here.  Again, another "12 Years a Slave" nomination I thought was very likely that didn't materialize.

ANIMATED FEATURE: 4 of 5 here.  The #6 film "Ernest and Celestine" made it in while "Monsters University" did not.

FEATURE DOCUMENTARY: The FAC is 3 of 5. The exclusion of "Stories We Tell" and "Blackfish" might be two of the biggest surprises of the day.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE:  Again 3 of 5.

VISUAL EFFECTS: 4 of 5.

COSTUMES: 4 of 5.  "The Grandmaster" is a surprise here.

SOUND EDITING: 3 of 5.

SOUND MIXING: 3 of 5.

I didn't make in calls for Makeup/Hair or the Shorts categories.


FINAL THOUGHTS UNTIL MONDAY...

FAC total for 2014: 80 of 104 for a 77% success rate...about normal.

#6 ranked films/ people were nominated (instead of a "favorite") in Best Actress (Adams), Supporting Actress (Hawkins), Supporting Actor (Hill), Original Screenplay (Dallas Buyers Club), Production Design (Gravity), Original Song (Happy from Despicable Me 2) and Animated Feature (Ernest and Celestine).

All in all, looking back to yesterday's commentary, I feel okay about most of this year's guesses.

More on Monday...Have a great weekend.