SPECIAL POST: The FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Vol. 5C/Questions About Oscar

Good Tuesday to All!

Down to less than 48 hours until Oscar announces his nominees for this year...excitement building.

THE FAC VOL. 5C

Today a look at the last set of "below the line categories": Original Song. Original Score, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects.


I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) "Let It Go"/Frozen (1)
2) "Young and Beautiful"/The Great Gatsby (2)
3) "Moon Song"/Her (5)
4) "So You Know What It's Like"/Short Term 12 (3)
5) "Ordinary Love"/Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (9)
6) "Happy"/Despicable Me 2 (6)
7) "In the Middle of the Night"/Lee Daniels The Butler (10)
8) "Amen"/All is Lost (4)
9) "I See Fire"/The Hobbit: Smaug (7)
10) "You and I Ain't Nothin' No More"/Lee Daniels The Butler (8)

Comment:  Biggest jump: "Ordinary Love".  Biggest drop: "Amen".

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Gravity (1)
2) 12 Years a Slave (2)
3) The Book Thief (4)
4) Saving Mr. Banks (3)
5) Philomena (5)
6) Captain Phillips (6)
7) All is Lost (7)
8) Her (8)
9) Monsters University (9)
10) Rush (10)

Comment:  At this point, along with Animated Feature, this is the most stable, least fluid category.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen (1)
2) The Wind Rises (2)
3) The Croods (3)
4) Monsters University (4)
5) Despicable Me 2 (5)
6) Ernest and Celestine (6)
7) Letter to Momo (7)
8) Epic (9)
9) Cloudy with a  Chance of Meatballs 2 (8)
10) O Apostolo (10)

Comment: Pretty hot race between "Despicable Me 2" and "Ernest and Celestine" for the fifth spot.

DOCUMENTARY

1) The Act of Killing (4) (TFF #39)
2) Stories We Tell (2) (TFF #39)
3) Blackfish (1)
4) 20 Feet from Stardom (3)
5) The Square (5)
6) Tim's Vermeer (6)
7) Cutie and the Boxer (7)
8) God Loves Uganda (10)
9) The Armstrong Lie (8)
10) Dirty Wars (New)

Dropping out: "After Tiller"

Comment: Documentary is always a tough category to pick and always very competitive.  Big jump for "The Act of Killing".


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

(Note: The Academy has short listed this category to nine films)

1) The Hunt (1) (TFF #39)
2) Broken Circle Breakdown (6)
3) The Great Beauty (5)
4) Two Lives
5) The Notebook
6) The Grandmaster
7) Omar
8) The Missing Picture 
9) An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker

When TFF #40 misses making it to 40 overall nominations on Thursday morning it may well be because of this category.  TFF almost always has strong presence in the Foreign Language category but the Academy' s short list really put a damper on that.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Gravity (1)
2) The Hobbit: Smaug (2)
3) Pacific Rim (3)
4) Iron Man 3 (4)
5) Star Trek Into Darkness (5)
6) World War Z (7)
7) Elysium (6)
8) Oblivion (8)
9) The Lone Ranger (9)
10) Thor 2 (New)

Dropping Out: Man of Steel

Comment:  Another very stable category heading into Thursday morning's announcements.

Overall for these categories, if The FAC was 100% accurate, TFF #40 films would have 4 nominations and another 4 possibles.  TFF #39 would reap 3 nominations.

QUESTIONS ABOUT OSCAR

I sent out a brief survey to some of my friends and acquaintances (Academy members, Oscar experts, directors, screenwriters and film journalists) and asked them four questions:

1)      What will be the biggest surprise Thursday morning?

2)      What’s going to happen that you will dislike?

3)      What will happen that you’ll be happiest about?

      4)      What should happen that won’t? 
  
For example, my answers would be:

1) Meryl Streep doesn't get a Best Actress nomination for "August: Osage County".
2) If it were to happen, I'd dislike a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for "Gravity"...and that could happen.
3) "12 Years a Slave" will lead the field in number of total nominations.
4) Oscar Isaac will not get a Best Actor nomination.

What are your answers to those four questions?  Comment!


Tomorrow, with The Final FAC before nominations are announced, I'll post some of those answers.  Should be fun.