Thursday, January 9, 2014

The FAC Vol. 5A/The Other Metric/Oscar's Look/Nebraska Notes/Labor Day Rush

Good Thursday Everyone...

I'm continuing to update Oscar categories as we get closer and closer to nomination morning (Jan. 16-one week away!),  Today, I'm updating the Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.


I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.


1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) Captain Phillips (2)
3) Philomena (4)
4) Before Midnight (5)
5) The Wolf of Wall Street (3)
6) August: Osage County (6)
7) Short Term 12 (8)
8) Blue is the Warmest Color (7)
9) The Spectacular Now (New)
10) The Book Thief (Semi-New)

Dropping Out: "Lone Survivor" and "Labor Day".

Comment: The top six listed seem to be the serious players with "Wolf" dropping a bit, perhaps due to the conversation about whether the film glorifies/endorses the kind of behavior it depicts.  "August" still seems to be on the outside, but just barely and "Short Term 12" has a legit shot to make the field as a sleeper.


1) American Hustle (3)
2) Nebraska (2)
3) Her (4)
4) Inside Llewyn Davis (1)
5) Blue Jasmine (5)
6) Gravity (7)
7) Enough Said (9)
8) Dallas Buyers Club (8)
9) Fruitvale Station (New)
10) Lee Daniel's The Butler (10)

Dropping Out: "Saving Mr. Banks"

Comment:  "Llewyn" takes a pretty big fall owing almost certainly to the lack of a WGA nomination last week.  This category is very tight with only the top three listed above as very likely Oscar nominees.


1) Gravity (1)
2) 12 Years a Slave (2-TIE)
2) Inside Llewyn Davis (2-TIE)
4) Prisoners (4)
5) Nebraska (6)
6) Captain Phillips (5)
7) Rush (7)
8) Her (8)
9) The Grandmaster (New)
10) All is Lost (9)

Comment:  Every few years some category appears to have the possibility of a complete Telluride slate of nominees.  This years it's Cinematography which, if these numbers don't lie, would happen next week.  Realistically, almost any of the top ten could end up with a nomination.


1) Gravity (1)
2) 12 Years a Slave (2)
3) Captain Phillips (3)
4) American Hustle (4)
5) Rush (5)
6) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)
8) All is Lost (7)
9) Her (9)
10) Lone Survivor (New)

Dropping Out: "Nebraska"

Comment: A very competitive category as well through the first six places with both "Llewyn " and "Lost" also realistic possibilities to sneak into a nomination.


1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) The Great Gatsby (2)
3) Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) The Hobbit: Smaug (4)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)
6) Gravity (6)
7) Her (7)
8) American Hustle (8)
9) The Invisible Woman (9)
10) Oz The Great and Powerful (10)

Comment:  That's right, a category with absolutely no movement in the past couple of weeks.  This category seems ultra-competitive through the top seven spots and I have a feeling the #8 "American Hustle" might sneak in.

Overall, in these five categories Telluride #40 would have 12 additional nominations (if the metric is 100% accurate) and another 7 possibilities.

Beginning Monday I will post Oscar category updates each day leading up to Oscar Nomination announcement morning (Thursday).  Monday and Tuesday I'll update the remaining "under the line categories.  On Monday: The Shorts: Animated, Documentary, Live Action as well as Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  On Tuesday: Original Song, Original Score, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects.


A week ago, I added another metric as a way of looking at the Best Picture race.  It utilized the results from Golden Globe nominations, The Screen Actors Guild, The American Film Institute, The Los Angeles Critics, The New York Film Critics Circle and The National Board of Review.  In the last week, three other guilds (Producers, Directors and Writers) have announced as well as The National Society of Film Critics and The British Association of Film and Television Arts.  That's a total of 10 organizational announcements that I have compiled.  If we believe that success among these organizations is indicative of Oscar nomination potential then here's what they tell us (if they tell us anything).

7 films get nominated for Best Picture

Leading the way is "American Hustle" named by nine of these groups (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NYFCC, DGA, PGA, WGA, NSFC and BAFTA).

Next is "12 Years a Slave" named eight times (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, NSFC, BAFTA)

Two films were named seven times:
"Gravity" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
"Her" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA, NSFC)

Two films have six mentions:
"Captain Phillips" (Golden Globes, AFI, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA)
"The Wolf of Wall Street" (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, WGA)

"Nebraska" has five mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, WGA)

"Inside Llewyn Davis" has four mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, NSFC)

So this metric suggests that these are the eight most likely Best Picture nominees a week from today.

Films with three mentions and potential spoilers/additions:

"Dallas Buyers Club" (SAG, PGA, WGA)
"Saving Mr. Banks" (AFI, NBR, PGA)

It will be interesting to see how this metric plays out next week.


Here's the official poster for this year's Oscars featuring host Ellen Degeneres.  I have also links the HitFix story that goes with the poster/announcement:


The Wrap talks to the producers of Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" about the decade long process it took to get the film to the screen:

Then The Wrap added this conversation with "Nebraska" cinematographer Phedon Papamichael:

Screenwriter Bob Nelson talks to's Kyle Buchanan about the toughest scene to write in the film:


Sasha Stone of Awards Daily posted her latest Oscar podcast which you can find here:


The Playlist posted a story this week with new images and television spots for Jason Reitman's "Labor Day".  According to my latest FAC, "Labor Day" has the smallest of shots at two Oscar nominations next week:  Best Actress for Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay.  Here's the story from The Playlist:

More on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday next week in the run up to the Oscar nomination announcement.

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