Oscars to Move Today??? / The Distribs: Sony Pictures Classics

OSCARS TO MOVE TODAY???

The Board of Governors for The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be meeting virtually later today.  They are widely believed to decide that they will move the dates for the Oscar ceremony from its current date of Feb. 28th.

Some speculation has it that the ceremony could be pushed to March or even as late as April.  We should know something more after the Board meeting today.

AMPAS has already made the decision to alter the eligibility rules to allow films that did not screen ina theater but had a release date scheduled to be eligible for the Oscar. 

Should the organization make the decision to change dates, that also raises questions about whether there might be other tweaking regarding eligibilty and release dates.  Additionally, one wonders if an Oscar date change will create a domino effect among other awards programs and the guild awards.

And, of course, you have to wonder what effect, if any, an Oscar date change might have on Telluride and the other fall film fests.

Indiewire's Anne Thompson took on a number of these issues in an article published on Tuesday which I have linked here.



THE DISTRIBS: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Over the past couple of decades of the Telluride Film Festival no distributor has had more features scheduled than Sony Pictures Classics.  Here's the run for the last several years:

2019: The Climb, Lyrebird, Pain and Glory (3)
2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)

That's 74 films over a 17 year span for an average of 4.4 films per year.

At this point SPC looks to have only a couple of films that could be in consideration for TFF #47. 

The most likely seems to be Zachary Furher's documentary John Prine: Hello in There.  I suggest that it's the most likely only because it's post-production date is listed by IMDb as Feb. 2019.  You have to figure that it's done.

SPC's other title is Azazel Jacob's French Exit starring Michelle Pfeiffer.  It's much mire iffy as it went into post-production very late in the game (Dec. 10, 2019) with respect to the Covid-19 lockdown. 

Though SPC only has these two titles in the pipe, they could very easily acquire a property or two that they then turnaround and submit to Telluride for possible inclusion so keep an eye open for news along those lines.

Chances...

Prine 40%
French Exit 20%
Some new acquisition 30%

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A Return for Inarritu? / The Best of the 90's / New Rules for Docs at the Oscars

A RETURN FOR INARRITU?

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is a stalwart fan of the Telluride Film Festival.  He's been there a lot beginning in 2006 with Babel (it was my first year at TFF too) and following it with Biutiful in 2010 and Birdman in 2014.  He's also been in town for the fest as a supporter for both Alonzo Cuaron and Guillermo Del Toro and, I believe, has attended once or twice just to attend.

Now comes news that he is working on a restoration of his first feature film, the Oscar nominated Amores Perros from 2000.  Indiewire's Zack Sharf reports that the film maker has plans to screen it at the Morelia Film Fest in Mexico in October and a massive public screening in Mexico City in December.

One has to wonder, and I do, if the possibility exists that the new restoration might be rolled out over Labor Day weekend in Telluride.  Sharf reports that Inarritu has already been working on the project for months and the October target for the Morelia screening suggests that there is at least a theoretical possibility that it could be ready for a Telluride bow.

It would make for an intriguing addition to the TFF #47 slate.

Check out the entire story from Indiewire here.


THE BEST OF THE 90'S

Jordan Ruimy at his website World of Reel completed and posted an enormous poll of industry folks: film makers, critiques, pundits etc.  Somehow, I was invited and was more than happy to respond.  We (some 175 of us or thereabouts) were asked to submit five titles, in no particular order, that we regarded as the best films of the 1990's.  That post went up last Thursday.

My list of five: Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, Magnolia, Pulp Fiction and Schindler's List.

When all was said and done, all five of the films from my list landed in the Top 20 of Ruimy's over all poll.  Mine, in the order the finished:  Goodfellas at #1.  Pulp Fiction at #2.  Magnolia at #7.  Schindler's List at #13 and L.A. Confidential at #18.

Ruimy's complete list of the Top 40 films of the 1990's is linked here.

The individual rundown of every one who was a respondent and their lists is linked here.

No one matched my choices 5 for 5.  I was 4 of 5 with The A.V. Club's Jesse Hassenger.  Our only disconnect was my inclusion of L.A. Confidential.  Hassenger had Fargo instead...which is a worthy choice.

There nine folks that I was 3 for 5 with including Telluride freinds Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter and Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit.  Also Peter Howell from The Toronto Sun who had always been kind to answer my questions about the Toronto Film Fest.

Other notable participants included: David Ansen/Newsweek, Alex Billington/First Showing, film director Jim Cummings (Thunder Road), David Ehrlich/Indiewire, Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist, David Fear/Rolling Stone, Dave Karger/TCM, Eric Kohn/Indiewire, Eric Lavalee/Ioncinema, film director Rod Lurie (Straw Dogs), Scott Menzel /We Live Entertainment, Steve Pond/The Wrap, Claudia Puig/USA Today, Jeff Sneider/Collider, Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times.

Jordan has also polled us on the best films of the 2000's ane I expect we'll see that poll very soon.


NEW RULES FOR DOCS AT THE OSCARS

Poster for last year's Best Doc Oscar winner: American Factory

Much as they did at the end of April, for feature films, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has re-worked the rules for Oscar eligibility for documentary films to reflect the challenges film makers are experiencing during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Basically, AMPAS has made it easier, for this year only, to qualify a documentary for Oscar consideration including screening at specific film fests, though Telluride is not on the list of those fests published by The Hollywood Reporter.

The whole of the THR article about the new rules is linked here.


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Oscar Charts a New Path / Another Take on Fall Film Fests and Covid-19 / Locarno Says No to 2020

OSCAR CHARTS A NEW PATH

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences met virtually Tuesday and established some new temporary guidelines for the Academy Awards in a Covid-19 era.

The most consequential change is that films that are streaming but did not have a traditional theatrical release can be eligible for Oscar consideration if they had a theatrical date scheduled for 2020.  So, for example, Sundance hit Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always is now Oscar eligible even though it hasn't had a theatrical run and went directly to VOD.

The decision to allow consideration of films that meet the new criteria could have some effect on calculations about films that might normally looking to plays at Telluride, Toronto, Venice (and whatever accomodation is made for Cannes) and New York.  Both the studios and the fests have a new wrinkle to contemplate in an already complex and unprecedented situation.

And, of course, from my perspective, the next several months on this blog will be difficult.  This decision adds one more layer of difficulty in trying to figure out what films play where.

Other major changes from the Academy meeting were the decision to combine Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into a single Oscar category and a change in voting rules for the International Features Oscar.  And finally, it appears that the Academy is committed to an Oscar ceremony for 2020 but is unsure that the currently scheduled date of Fe. 28, 2021 might be arbitrary,

Here's the complete low down on the AMPAS meeting from The Hollywood Reporter.


ANOTHER TAKE ON FALL FILM FESTS AND COVID-19

Rebecca Keegan writing at The Hollywood Reporter this week ran down her assessment of where we are currently with regard to TFF, TIFF, Venice and New York as the Covid-19 pandemic grinds on.

She includes a couple of interesting tidbits that probably should factor into our thinking about what may happen in September and October.

One paragraph that jumped out at me was this:

"Of the four marquee festivals typically used to launch fall films — Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York — all say they intend to exist in some form this year, and each is exploring different avenues and conferring with each other on safety protocols. Rivals who typically compete to snare the best films are instead now swapping ideas and commiserating about their unprecedented challenges."

That interests me though it doesn't necessarily surprise.  The notion that these four fests are "conferring"  and "swapping ideas" is what intrigues.

Also of note is this paragraph:

"Hollywood’s shut-down has impacted work on high-profile projects that would have been festival fare, like Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley for Fox Searchlight and David Fincher’s Mank for Netflix, making them unlikely to be finished in time for a Telluride or Venice bow, even if the festivals proceed."

That sets off some alarm bells for me as both of those films have been in my thinking as potential Telluride players this year.

Keegan also re-states the notion that the studios themselves are in a constant state of limbo in terms of release strategies that remain uncertain and in flux.

With so many variables still in play...making plans and predictions seems nigh on impossible.

Keegan's article is linked here.


LOCARNO SAYS NO TO 2020

Variety reported yesterday that the 73rd Locarno Film Fest in Switzerland has decided to cancel.  The fest also chose not to attempt an online version but rather will institute an initiative to support independent cinema.

Locarno artistic director Lili Hinstin is quoted in the article explaining the new initiative:

“directors whose movies have been blocked by the pandemic and are therefore suffering economic damage,”


The complete article by Nick Vivarelli for Variety is here..

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In Case You Missed It: Toronto and Venice News / Old Friends / Non-Fiction Has Distribution / The Elephant in the Room / And the Poster

Welcome to Thursday...


IN CASE YOU MISSED THEM

I am re-posting a couple of special items that came down the pike since my last regularly scheduled post on Tuesday morning:

TORONTO NEWS

From today's announcement of new titles from the Toronto International Film Festival:

Twelve films were added to the TIFF lineup Wednesday for their Platform Section.  All but one are listed as World or North American premieres taking them out of the Telluride conversation.  However Karyn Kusama's Destroyer starring Nicole Kidman with Sebastian Stan is listed as an International Premiere which indicates that it is now a likely title for The SHOW.

Destroyer has not yet been dated for U.S. release but you have to expect an awards qualifying date must be in the offing.  Destroyer is being distributed by Annapurna.

Let me just mention...a Nicole Kidman tribute?

Here's coverage of the announcement of Toronto's Platform section from:

The Hollywood Reporter

Indiewire

The Wrap

Deadline


 VENICE NEWS

It appears that the Venice Film Fest will announce their schedule earlier than expected.  The schedule was originally to have been announced on Friday but we should see the it on Thursday now according to the Twitterverse:

The schedule for films screening at the Venice Film Festival, which although not definitive in and of themselves, can offer clues about which films that are screening there could conceivably also make the lineup for TFF #45.  For example, if Errol Morris' American Dharma is scheduled Aug.29-31 or Sept. 6-8...that would indicate at least a temporal possibility for the documentary to play both in Venice and Telluride.

Based on last year's fests, I am expecting a half a dozen or so films to play both places.  We already are expecting: First Man, Roma, The Favourite and Peterloo.

These films are all potentially possible for a Venice play in addition to Telluride: Vox Lux, 22 July, Suspiria, Never Look Away, The Nightingale, American Dharma, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead, The Other Side of the Wind, The Mountain, Blood Kin and the new extended version of Terrence Malick's The Tree of Life.

My best guess here would be the two documentaries: Errol Morris' Steve Bannon doc; American Dharma and the Morgan Neville doc about making The Other Side of the Wind; They'll Love Me When I'm Dead.

OLD FRIENDS

Each year, at some point during the summer, I assess what I call "The Usual Suspects".  That's the list of directors, producers, actors, etc. that have seemed to established a relationship with Telluride through the years.

Almost without exception when the actual lineup is finalized, it feels a little like that might be an exercise in futility.  So, over the last couple of days, I took a look at the films that we are predicting/relatively confident about for 2018 to see if "The Usual Suspects" is a worthwhile metric.

At this point, I'm thinking we have  films that feature directors that have established a TFF connection after having screened films their previously:

First Man (Damian Chazelle-La La Land)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity)
Peterloo (Mike Leigh-Another Year and others)
The Front Runner (Jason Reitman-Up in the Air and others)
Dogman (Matteo Garrone-Gomorrah)
Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski-Ida)
Meeting Gorbachev (Werner Herzog-he's had a few)
Non-Fiction (Olivier Assasyas-Carlos)

Then there's The Other Side of the Wind which is Orson Welles but also includes Frank Marshall and Peter Bogdanovich in significant roles getting the film done.

Ina addition, among other films we think will play that don't have a directing connection there are The Favourite which stars Emma Stone who has been to T-ride for two straight years.  The Old Man and the Gun which stars 2013 TFF Tributee Robert Redford and 2016 Tributee Casey Affleck.  White Boy Rick features 1993 TFF Tributee Jennifer Jason Leigh and Bruce Dern who attended TFF in 2013.  It also credits Darren Aronofsky as a producer who was at TFF in 2010 as the director of Black Swan.


So, I suppose, "The Usual Suspects" is still a useful metric.


NON-FICTION HAS DISTRIBUTION

Photo via Variety.com

We learned yesterday that Sundance Selects has acquired the rights to distribute Olivier Assasyas' Non-Fiction in the United States.

That story is covered here by The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.

We believe that Non-Fiction will play as a part of the lineup at the Telluride Film Festival. 

Sundance Selects has had a significant history with Telluride along with their distributing partner IFC Films.  That tradition looks as if it will continue with Non-Fiction.


AND THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

I'm sure many of you saw the news from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences yesterday about changes coming to Oscar over the next season or two.

There were three significant changes announced:

Some categories will be shuffled off the live telecast...the categories were unnamed.
A new category will be added for Best "Popular" Film
And, the 2020 telecast will be moved up by a couple of weeks to Feb. 9th.

Largely the reaction in the Film Twitter world was negative, although there were a couple of notable defenders of the Best Popular Film move.

Of more interest to me was the decision to push the ceremony to earlier in February which, as a number of people noted yesterday, probably increases the importance of Telluride in regards to Oscar. 

That notion kind of makes my head spin a bit.  Telluride's influence vis-a-vis Oscar has grown dramatically over the years I have been attending (since 2006).  Whether that's by happenstance or design isn't particular important.  What is key is that as we move through the next couple of years, it's doubtful that T-ride's role in the Oscar season is going to wain.

It's likely to mean that a ticket that was tough to get last March (selling out in a couple of days) gets even more dicey for 2019 and 2020.

Honestly, I suspect that some changes will be forthcoming regarding ticketing for The SHOW. 

Stay tuned...


AND THE POSTER

It's true.  A poster exists.  I have been told that a copy of said poster has been hung in the window in The Nugget Theater in Telluride.

I have seen photographic evidence.

I am refraining from posting at this point as I await the official announcement from the festival.

Believe me, though, a poster exists.


That's all for now...more coming tomorrow including an updated Ten (Plus) Bets list and an analysis of the Venice schedule as it sets up potential Telluride players.


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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

First "Ten Bets" Happens Tomorrow/Oscar Stays the Same/Trailer Park: "Macbeth" and "Valley of Love"

Welcome to Thursday...

REMEMBER THAT THE FIRST "TEN BETS" LIST FOR TELLURIDE 2015 IS COMING TOMORROW!

Now onto to day's post:

OSCAR STAYS THE SAME

The Board of Governor's of The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences announced yesterday that they had decided to stay with the recent, three year old practice of having anywhere between five and ten nominees for Best Picture.  In the three year experiment, AMPAS has nominated nine, nine and then last year, eight films for Best Picture.


I have included details from stories from Variety, Awards Daily and Gold Derby.  They also cover a couple of minor tweaks that The Academy changed in a few other categories.


http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/06/rules-for-88th-oscars-no-changes-to-best-picture/

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/oscar-tweaks-best-picture-visual-effects-rules-1201527228/

http://www.goldderby.com/news/9620/oscars-best-picture-academy-awards-news-entertainment-13579086-story.html


TRAILER PARK: "Macbeth" and "Valley of Love"

A new international trailer for a film that I have written about quite a bit and another that I really haven't mentioned are included here.

Justin Kurzel's Macbeth starring Marion Cotillard and Michael Fassbender has the new international trailer.  The film is being domestically distributed by The Weinstein Company and has had a good deal of buzz in terms of awards consideration especially for Cotillard's performance as Lady Macbeth.   Here's the new trailer:

"Macbeth" International Trailer via YouTube

Check the accompanying story from flickeringmyth.com:

http://www.flickeringmyth.com/2015/06/international-trailer-for-macbeth-starring-michael-fassbender-and-marion-cotillard.html


Additionally, another Cannes competition film (as "Macbeth" was) that has just dropped a french language trailer with English subtitles.  "Valley of Love" stars Gerard Depardieu and Isabelle Huppert and is directed by Guillaume Nicloux.

The film centers on the story of a estranged couple brought back together by the suicide of their son.

  It currently is without U.S. distribution but certainly Depardieu and Huppert are no strangers to being in films that play at Telluride.

Here is the trailer for "Valley of Love":

"Valley of Love" Trailer via YouTube

And the accompanying story from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/cannes-first-trailer-for-competition-film-valley-of-love-with-isabelle-huppert-and-gerard-depardieu-20150511

And "Valley of Love's " IMDb page:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4120210/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1



Come back for more tomorrow...

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Viewing the Awards Landscape/Music News for Oscar/Inarritu: Moving On/Nuts and Bolts: Editing Imitation/Awards Season Overload?/Hateful 8 Has Begun

Good Monday to Everyone...


VIEWING THE AWARDS LANDSCAPE

Everyone, take a breath.  The first real wave of awards season news has come ( Golden Globe. Independent Spirit and SAG nominations and critics lists and awards from NBR, AFI and LA and NY) with that, here are some thoughts:

Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" is your betting favorite for Best Picture (and likely Best Director and Supporting Actress.  Maybe even Original Screenplay).  It made all seven of the above organizations lists/awards .  It also appears that "Birdman" and "The Imitation Game" are the only films with any kind of shot to challenge.

Acting favorites are all pretty solid but not as much of a lock as it might seem.  Even Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) and JK Simmons (Whiplash) who have seemed unbeatable may have a bit more of a challenge than has been previously thought.  For Simmons, that would appear to come from Edward Norton (Birdman)  and for Arquette the challenge looks to be coming from Jessica Chastain for "A Most Violent Year".

Lead acting  favorites are Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Julianne Moore (Still Alice).  Keaton has never been perceived as a prohibitive favorite and his biggest challenge is likely from Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything).  Moore has been a prohibitive favorite, but the rise of Jennifer Aniston's profile for "Cake" over that past couple of weeks, should give Moore pause.


MUSIC NEWS FOR OSCAR

A couple of big announcements for the Music categories for The Academy Awards this past week. The Academy  announced 114 eligible scores and original songs and, as there always seem to be, there were some surprises.

First surprise to be mentioned is the ineligibility of Antonio Sanchez's percussion heavy, and very distinctive, score for Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman".  TFF scores that are eligible include: "The Homesman", "The Imitation Game", "Merchants of Doubt", "Mr. Turner", "Red Army", "Rosewater", "The Salt of the Earth" and "Wild Tales". Also from TFF #40: "Tracks" and "Under the Skin".  The complete list is here from The Gold Derby:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/7931/oscars-birdman-whiplash-entertainment-13579086-story.html

Meanwhile, The Academy also released the list of 79 eligible original songs for Oscar consideration. Among them is: "You Fooled Me" from "The Merchants of Doubt".  Additionally, blog obsession "Rudderless" had three songs make the the list: "Over Your Shoulder", "Sing Along" and "Stay with You".  The complete list is here from Deadline.com:

http://deadline.com/2014/12/oscars-original-songs-movies-1201322686/


Listen to some of the "Rudderless" songs here:

https://soundcloud.com/lakeshore-records/rudderless-soundtrack-preview/s-9L7Pa

INARRITU MOVING ON

Despite the fact that awards season madness is in full swing and that his "Birdman" is in the midst of a hot campaign for a number of trophies and baubles (it will almost certainly garner more Oscar nominations than any other film this year), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is already deep into his next project.  That's the revenge western "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  Inarritu is in Canada filming away.  Kristopher Tapley reports for HitFix/InContention that Inarritu is set to film until April.  The film has an announced limited release date for Dec. 25, 2015.  I have to believe that it would play Venice/Telluride if Inarritu has it ready but that would be a really tight window.  Check out Tapley's story here:


http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/birdmans-inarritu-says-its-important-to-stay-busy-during-ego-stroking-awards-season


NUTS AND BOLTS: EDITING "THE IMITATION GAME"

As we get deeper into awards season, you can see the P.R./Oscar machine begin to go into every possible cranny to get traction.  Stories about the technical aspects of various contenders pop up with more and more frequency.  Case in point is this Variety story focused on the film editing for Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game":

http://variety.com/video/editing-the-imitation-game/


AWARDS SEASON OVERLOAD

Does it get overwhelming?  This past ten days or so have seen the announcements of film excellence winners and nominees for the Independent Spirit Awards, Golden Globes, NBR, AFI, New York and Los Angeles Film Critics and the Screen Actors Guild plus more.

Well, fear not.  The Film Society of Lincoln Center has developed an awards matrix.  It's really useful.  Look at it here:

http://www.filmlinc.com/daily/entry/the-awards-matrix-2014


"HATEFUL 8" HAS BEGUN

As had been announced earlier, Quentin Tarantino has begun actual filming of his next (and last project?) "The Hateful Eight" just outside of Telluride.  Star Samuel L. Jackson tweeted  this picture on Wednesday:

That'll do it for today...check back for more on Thursday...

The FAC Vol. 5A/The Other Metric/Oscar's Look/Nebraska Notes/Labor Day Rush

Good Thursday Everyone...

I'm continuing to update Oscar categories as we get closer and closer to nomination morning (Jan. 16-one week away!),  Today, I'm updating the Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5A

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Captain Phillips (2)

3) Philomena (4)

4) Before Midnight (5)

5) The Wolf of Wall Street (3)

6) August: Osage County (6)

7) Short Term 12 (8)

8) Blue is the Warmest Color (7)

9) The Spectacular Now (New)

10) The Book Thief (Semi-New)

Dropping Out: "Lone Survivor" and "Labor Day".

Comment: The top six listed seem to be the serious players with "Wolf" dropping a bit, perhaps due to the conversation about whether the film glorifies/endorses the kind of behavior it depicts.  "August" still seems to be on the outside, but just barely and "Short Term 12" has a legit shot to make the field as a sleeper.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle (3)

2) Nebraska (2)

3) Her (4)

4) Inside Llewyn Davis (1)

5) Blue Jasmine (5)

6) Gravity (7)

7) Enough Said (9)

8) Dallas Buyers Club (8)

9) Fruitvale Station (New)

10) Lee Daniel's The Butler (10)

Dropping Out: "Saving Mr. Banks"

Comment:  "Llewyn" takes a pretty big fall owing almost certainly to the lack of a WGA nomination last week.  This category is very tight with only the top three listed above as very likely Oscar nominees.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity (1)

2) 12 Years a Slave (2-TIE)

2) Inside Llewyn Davis (2-TIE)

4) Prisoners (4)

5) Nebraska (6)

6) Captain Phillips (5)

7) Rush (7)

8) Her (8)

9) The Grandmaster (New)

10) All is Lost (9)

Comment:  Every few years some category appears to have the possibility of a complete Telluride slate of nominees.  This years it's Cinematography which, if these numbers don't lie, would happen next week.  Realistically, almost any of the top ten could end up with a nomination.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Gravity (1)

2) 12 Years a Slave (2)

3) Captain Phillips (3)

4) American Hustle (4)

5) Rush (5)

6) The Wolf of Wall Street (6)

7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)

8) All is Lost (7)

9) Her (9)

10) Lone Survivor (New)

Dropping Out: "Nebraska"

Comment: A very competitive category as well through the first six places with both "Llewyn " and "Lost" also realistic possibilities to sneak into a nomination.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) 12 Years a Slave (1)

2) The Great Gatsby (2)

3) Saving Mr. Banks (3)

4) The Hobbit: Smaug (4)

5) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)

6) Gravity (6)

7) Her (7)

8) American Hustle (8)

9) The Invisible Woman (9)

10) Oz The Great and Powerful (10)

Comment:  That's right, a category with absolutely no movement in the past couple of weeks.  This category seems ultra-competitive through the top seven spots and I have a feeling the #8 "American Hustle" might sneak in.

Overall, in these five categories Telluride #40 would have 12 additional nominations (if the metric is 100% accurate) and another 7 possibilities.

Beginning Monday I will post Oscar category updates each day leading up to Oscar Nomination announcement morning (Thursday).  Monday and Tuesday I'll update the remaining "under the line categories.  On Monday: The Shorts: Animated, Documentary, Live Action as well as Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  On Tuesday: Original Song, Original Score, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Foreign Language Film and Visual Effects.

THE OTHER METRIC

A week ago, I added another metric as a way of looking at the Best Picture race.  It utilized the results from Golden Globe nominations, The Screen Actors Guild, The American Film Institute, The Los Angeles Critics, The New York Film Critics Circle and The National Board of Review.  In the last week, three other guilds (Producers, Directors and Writers) have announced as well as The National Society of Film Critics and The British Association of Film and Television Arts.  That's a total of 10 organizational announcements that I have compiled.  If we believe that success among these organizations is indicative of Oscar nomination potential then here's what they tell us (if they tell us anything).

7 films get nominated for Best Picture

Leading the way is "American Hustle" named by nine of these groups (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NYFCC, DGA, PGA, WGA, NSFC and BAFTA).

Next is "12 Years a Slave" named eight times (Golden Globes, SAG, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, NSFC, BAFTA)

Two films were named seven times:
"Gravity" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, DGA, PGA, BAFTA)
"Her" (Golden Globes, AFI, LAFCA, NBR, PGA, WGA, NSFC)

Two films have six mentions:
"Captain Phillips" (Golden Globes, AFI, DGA, PGA, WGA, BAFTA)
"The Wolf of Wall Street" (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, DGA, PGA, WGA)

"Nebraska" has five mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, PGA, WGA)

"Inside Llewyn Davis" has four mentions (Golden Globes, AFI, NBR, NSFC)

So this metric suggests that these are the eight most likely Best Picture nominees a week from today.

Films with three mentions and potential spoilers/additions:

"Dallas Buyers Club" (SAG, PGA, WGA)
"Saving Mr. Banks" (AFI, NBR, PGA)

It will be interesting to see how this metric plays out next week.

OSCAR'S LOOK FOR 2014

 
Here's the official poster for this year's Oscars featuring host Ellen Degeneres.  I have also links the HitFix story that goes with the poster/announcement:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/academy-unveils-official-poster-for-2014-oscars


NEBRASKA NOTES

The Wrap talks to the producers of Alexander Payne's "Nebraska" about the decade long process it took to get the film to the screen:

http://www.thewrap.com/nebraska-alexander-payne-producers-albert-berger-ron-yerxa


Then The Wrap added this conversation with "Nebraska" cinematographer Phedon Papamichael:

http://www.thewrap.com/nebraska-cinematographer-explains-bruce-derns-face-better-black-white/

Screenwriter Bob Nelson talks to Vulture.com's Kyle Buchanan about the toughest scene to write in the film:

http://www.vulture.com/2014/01/toughest-scene-i-wrote-nebraskas-bob-nelson.html


OSCAR PODCAST

Sasha Stone of Awards Daily posted her latest Oscar podcast which you can find here:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/?p=2264


LABOR DAY RUSH

The Playlist posted a story this week with new images and television spots for Jason Reitman's "Labor Day".  According to my latest FAC, "Labor Day" has the smallest of shots at two Oscar nominations next week:  Best Actress for Kate Winslet and Best Adapted Screenplay.  Here's the story from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-tv-spot-photos-of-jason-reitmans-labor-day-starring-kate-winslet-josh-brolin-20140103


More on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday next week in the run up to the Oscar nomination announcement.

Black Swan to "Plie" in Telluride???

Anne Thompson at IndieWire drops a couple of inferences that Darren Aronofsky's new film "Black Swan" starring Natalie Portman will make a stop at TFF #37. Those stories are here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/category/telluride/

"Black Swan's" IMDB page is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0947798/

And, later this weekend, we'll do a round-up piece to set the stage for the final month before the 37th Telluride Film Festival.

More for Venice...Less for Telluride?

Natalie Portman in Darren Arnofsky's "Black Swan"

The Playlist has a big story today about "probable" Venice Fest films. Check it out at:

http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/darren-aronofskys-black-swan-looking-to.html

Among films listed in the article that we thought might be on the Telluride short list are:

Black Swan (Aronofsky's follow-up to "The Wrestler")

The Town (Ben Affleck's new film)

The King's Speech (starring Colin Firth)

Others mentioned that we previously reported as likely going to Venice are: Somewhere, The American, and Miral.

And, again, Tree of Life continues to be an on-going mystery...

Another One Bites the Dust...The Fighter, that is..

The Playlist tells us today that David O. Russell's "The Fighter" is purportedly unlikely for ANY fall film festival. That according to an interview with star Marky Mark Wahlberg. (Christian Bale also stars). That story is at this link:

http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/fighter-may-not-appear-at-tiff-2010-may.html

So it would seem that we'll not see the Fighter in Telluride...or the funky bunch for that matter.

Helen Mirren...Come Back to Telluride!

The Playlist reports today that "Brighton Rock" will "world" premiere at Toronto's festival. That doesn't automatically take it out of play as far as Telluride is concerned.

A cursory examination of the Toronto film list from last year reveals that "Life During Wartime," "Up in the Air," and the french film "Farewell" were "world" premieres and yet appeared at Telluride before or simultaneously.

Ultimately, today's announcement probably means that this adaptation of the Graham Greene classic is a bit less likely to be at TFF# 37...it doesn't preclude it's possibility entirely.

The TFF #37 Guest Director Is....

Author Michael Ondaatje has been selected to Guest Direct the 37th Telluride Film Festival according to Kris Tapley at In Contention.


Ondaatje is best known as the author of "The English Patient" which won the Booker Prize and, of course, became the film of the same name that won 9 Academy Awards including Best Picture. Ondaatje shared the USC scripter award that year with Director/Screenwriter Anthony Minghella.

Ondaatje was born in Sri Lanka in 1943...but moved to England in 1954 and then to Canada in 1962. He's lived there ever since. He was primarily a poet in his early writing career.

Interesting tidbit: He authored a book in 2002 about Walter Murch and editing. Murch was a Telluride tributee in 2006.

It will be interesting to see what the author of "The English Patient" programs as his selections in this year's festival.

You can check out Ondaatje's "Contemporary Writers" page at:
http://www.contemporarywriters.com/authors/?p=auth205

TFF #37...Coming Soon to a Mountain Near You! (well Sept. 3-6)

Well, before we go away for awhile (and we may not stay away as much or as long as we have in the past)...we thought we'd collate some information and speculation to take our first stab at guessing some films that may show at the SHOW... and why we think they might. (Our thanks to In Contention and Ioncinema...their 2010 Oscar guesses and Cannes guesses are what are forming the basis for this first attempt...5 1/2 months before it happens!)

Here goes nothin'...

1) "Betty Anne Waters"...why...Fox Searchlight...Tony Goldwyn directs Hilary Swank looking to come back after the dud that was "Amelia" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1244754/

2) "Biutiful"...why...Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu directing his first film since "Babel" and "Babel" had a great start at Telluride in 2006...He might be back. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1164999/

3) "Black Swan"...why...Fox Searchlight...Darren Aronofsky directing after "The Wrestler" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0947798/

4) "The Eagle of the Ninth"...why...Kevin Mcdonald is the director and he has been a Telluride favorite with his last two projects: "My Enemies Enemy" and "The Last King of Scotland".

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1034389/

5) "Chloe"...why...Sony Pictures Classics...which has a great relationship with TFF...Julianne Moore and Liam Neeson star in this feature from Atom Egoyan...whose "Adoration" played at Cannes...and Cannes is another indicator of a possible Telluride presentation. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1352824/

6) "Howl" ...why...Because it seems to be the kind of unusual film that does get chosen...like "Fur" in 2006 or "I'm Not There" in 2007. This is the Allen Ginsburg picture starring James Franco. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049402/

7) "Never Let Me Go"...why...Fox Searchlight...and it stars Sally Hawkins ("Happy Go Lucky" her last in Telluride in 2008) and Carey Mulligan (who was the belle of the Telluride ball last year with "An Education"). http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1334260/

8) "Rabbit Hole"...why...also Fox Searchlight...and it seems to be the kind of film that might be connected to a tribute (like "The Road" and Viggo Mortensen last year and "Benjamen Button" and David Fincher in 2008). Nicole Kidman and Aaron Eckhardt star in the film adaptation of the Pulitzer Prize Winning play. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0935075/

9) "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger"...why...It's from Sony Pictures Classics. It's rumored to be in the Cannes lineup. It already has some speculation that it might be Telluride-bound (Hit Fix). Why not??? I have a hard time believing that Woody Allen shows up in the San Juans on Labor Day...but, if he did... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1182350/

10) "Love and Other Drugs"...why...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere has speculated that it might be a part of the Telluride lineup. The film stars Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall...already some Oscar buzz for Hathaway... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0758752/

Others from the "well, maybe..." list: Jodie Foster's "The Beaver", Carey Mulligan and Helen Mirren (both at TFF #36) in "Brighton Rock", Sofia Coppola's "Somewhere", "The Rum Diary" with Johnny Depp in Hunter S. Thompson's story, "My Own Love Song" starring Renee Zellweger and Forest Whitaker (who won his Oscar for "Last King" after it got its start at Telluride), "The Social Network", David Fincher's post-Button project.

AND THE HOLY GRAIL(S) FOR THIS FALL:

The Coen Brothers re-invention of "True Grit" with Oscar winner Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn and Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" with Brad Pitt and Sean Penn.

True Grit: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1403865/

Tree: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/

O...we can only hope...

The Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Last Call???

Probably the last post til it's all over on Sunday night. Here's the best guesses...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges-Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (bold, huh?)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds

Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (bit of a surprise over Hurt Locker)

Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Animated Film: Up

Foreign: The White Ribbon

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (bit of a surprise over Avatar...tho White Ribbon w/n surprise me either)

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Sound Editing: Avatar

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

Makeup: Star Trek

Score: Up

Song: The Weary Kind-Crazy Heart

Costumes: Young Victoria

Documentary: The Cove

Short Doc: The Last Truck

Live Short: The Door

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Comments:

1) Only 5 categories are the least bit competitive, if the conventional wisdom is correct...Actress (and that's probably just me that thinks it's competitive. I seem to be very lonely picking Streep...everything else says it's Bullock's to win), Foreign Film, Editing, Cinematography and Original Screenplay.

2) My totals if correct: Hurt Locker-4, Avatar-4, Up-2, Crazy Heart-2 and Inglourious Basterds-2...as your only multiple winners.

3) Telluride films win 4 Oscars if I'm right...Adapted Screenplay for Up in the Air, Foreign Film for The White Ribbon, Short Doc-The Last Truck and Live Short-The Door.

And this last word...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere speculates that "Love and Other Drugs" featuring Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall may be in line to play at TFF #37...so the game begins anew!

See you on the other side...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearingouse #11

With less than two weeks until Oscar night...almost no suspense...

TFF #36 films in bold

Here's the distilled wisdom from The Envelope, And the Winner Is, The Oscar Guy, Gurus of Gold, The Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker edges Avatar. No other really serious competition. If there was an upset...Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. Least Likely Winner: The Blind Side

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow is WAY OUT FRONT. Cameron is a distant second. Least Likely: Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in a walk. Clooney a distant challenger. Least Likely: Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock has a big lead with Meryl Streep her only real competition (this is where I think an upset happens and Streep wins). Least Likely: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor: Engrave Christoph Waltz's trophy now. Purported challenge: Harrelson. Least Likely: Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (and has been for months)...if there were a challenger it might be: Anna Kendrick (but she won't be). Least Likely: Penelope Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air is the massive favorite. Challenger...uh...Precious? Least Likely: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: An actual fight here! Hurt Locker has a tiny lead over Basterds (I'm leaning towards Basterds)...Least Likely: The Messenger

Animated: Up...Duh. Least Likely: The Secret of Kells

Documentary: The Cove has a substantial edge over Food Inc. Least Likely: Which Way Home

Foreign: Hey...an actual contested category...a 3 way battle brewing between The White Ribbon, A Prophet and The Secret of Her Eyes

Short Doc: The Last Truck way out front

Live Short: The Door in the lead

Art Direction: Avatar is the prohibitive favorite...Least Likely: Parnassus

Cinematography: A close race with Avatar barely in front of The Hurt Locker. Least Likely: Harry Potter

Costumes: Young Victoria is the prohibitive favorite. Least Likely: Parnassus

Film Editing: A close battle here again with Hurt Locker leading Avatar slightly. Least Likely: Precious

Sound Editing: Avatar is way out front. Least Likely: Inglourious Basterds

Sound Mixing: Again Avatar in a walk. Least Likely: Transformers

Visual Effects: Anyone think Avatar doesn't win this? Least Likely...well the other two

Score: Up has a big lead here. Least Likely: The Hurt Locker

Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart easily. Least Likely: Paris 36

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Final thoughts and personal predictions next week...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 9

Final number-crunching before tomorrow's nominations (data from : And the Winner Is, In Contention, Movie City News, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery)...TELLURIDE PICS IN CAPS AND BOLD...

Opening notes: DGA/PGA wins for The Hurt Locker...is it the lock to win Best Picture now??? I had thought for some time that Cameron would win Best Director and that Up in the Air would win Best Picture...I'm re-evaluating that now...

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) Inglorious Basterds, 4) UP IN THE AIR, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) Invictus, 9) District 9, 10) A Serious Man.

Spoilers: The Messenger, (500) Days of Summer, Nine, The Hangover, Star Trek

Comment:The top ten are so far out front that if anything else got a nod it would be pretty shocking...so look for a shocker or two...

My picks: I'll go with the chart...but...Messenger in and Invictus out???

Best Director: 1) Bigelow/Locker, 2) Cameron/Avatar, 3) Tarantino/Basterds, 4) REITMAN/UITA, 5) Daniels/Precious

Spoilers: Blomkamp/Dist. 9, Eastwood/Invictus

My Picks: Charts are right, no surprises here.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 5) Morgan Feeman/Invictus

Spoilers: MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Maguire/Brothers

My Picks: Gotta agree with the chart...although, like everything else with Invictus, Freeman has been losing steam...

Best Actress: 1) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia, 3) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION.

Spoilers: Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Marion Cotillard/Nine

My Picks: These 5 have been set for a long time.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus

Spoliers: ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, Anthony Mackie/The Hurt Locker, Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me

My Picks: Take the top 4 but move Matt Damon out in favor of Anthony Mackie.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UITA, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Spoilers: Samantha Morton/The Messenger, MaggieGyllenhall/Crazy Heart

My Picks: There's a real battle royale for the fifth spot here. I'll go with the chart top 4 and Samantha Morton.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) District 9, 5) Crazy Heart

Spoliers: Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Single Man, Julie and Julia

My Picks: No place else is the collapse of Invictus more clearly seen than in this category. It's totally gone...I'll go with UITA, Precious, EDUCATION, Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) (500) Days of Summer, 4) Up, 5) A Serious Man

Spoliers: The Hangover, Avatar

My Picks: Go with the charted 5

Best Foreign Film: 1) (tie) A PROPHET and THE WHITE RIBBON, 3)Ajami, 4) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 5) Winter in Wartime

Spoiler: Kelin

My Picks: I'll agree with the chart.

Best Documentary: 1) (tie) Food Inc and The Cove, 3) Every Little Step, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) Under Our Skin

Spoilers: Beaches of Agnes, Burma VJ, Facing Ali, Valentino: The Last Emperor.

My Picks: Food, Cove, Every Little Step, Facing Ali and Beaches of Agnes

Short Doc: LAST TRUCK, Lt. Wataba, Music by Prudence, Tell Them Anything

My Picks: OK

Tech Nominations:

Art Direction: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, A Serious Man, Public Enemies and Where the Wild Things Are. Spoilers: Sherlock Holmes, District 9, Start Trek, Bright Star

Cinematography: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, THE WHITE RIBBON. Spoilers: District 9

Costumes: BRIGHT STAR, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, Young Victoria

Spoilers: COCO BEFORE CHANEL

Film Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, UP IN THE AIR, District 9, Inglorious Basterds

Spoilers: Star Trek

Makeup: District 9, Star Trek, Dr. Parnassuss

Original Score: Avatar, The Informant!, Sherlock Holmes, Up, A Singlr Man

Spoiler: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Original Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, everybody's Fine, Princess and the Frog, Where the Wild Things Are

Spoilers: Second nominations for Nine and/or Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Transformers

Spoiler:Up

Sound Mixing: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker, Transformers

Spoiler: Up

Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Spoiler:2012

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Spoiler: Ponyo

Multiple Nominations per the charts:

Avatar-9

The Hurt Locker-8

UP IN THE AIR, Inglorious Basterds, District 9-7

Precious, Nine, Star Trek-5

Up-4

AN EDUCATION, Invictus, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart, A Single Man-3

THE WHITE RIBBON, THE LAST STATION, Sherlock Holmes, Princess and the Frog, Transformers-2

Comments: It's hard for me to believe that The Messenger, Crazy Heart, A Single Man and The Last Station may end up with multiple acting nominations, but NOT get into the expanded field of 10 Best Picture nominees. I can see each of them eking out an extra nom or two for screenplay or costuming and slipping into the ten...What are the films that are currently on the chart that are vulnerable: Invictus, Up, A Serious Man, District 9...

Saw The Hurt Locker this weekend, finally...good, not great...over-rated! Capping what has turned out to be a fairly mediocre year...

Last play for why The Road could sneak in...Moretensen is loved...and it's a good performance...they have to fill 10 spots. It's on 18 top ten lists (currently at #28 on the Movie City News critics scoreboard for the year...but a lot of what is ahead of it won't have a shot at a nomination...)and it was the best film of the year...

Watch for....

* If Maggie Gyllenhall gets nommed for Crazy Heart and/or it gets a screenplay nod...it's got a shot at a Best Picture nom

*If A Single Man gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture pool

*If Samantha Morton gets a nomination...The Messenger could be a Best Picture nom

*If Matt Damon does NOT get a Supporting nom...Invictus is in some trouble

*If The Last Station gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture lineup

And finally...if the charts are correct, TFF #36 will post 18 nominations tomorrow...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #7

Director's Guild Noms are out: Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, James Cameron/Avatar, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious and Jason Reitman/Up in the Air.

Daniels edges out Eastwood...Daniels gets the boost he needed after the Golden Globes snub.

Now on to the Clearinghouse update...EXPANDED! (Now more categories). TFF in CAPS & BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Avatar, 4) Precious, 5) Inglorious Basterds, 6) Invictus, 7) AN EDUCATION, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Nine

Outsiders: The Messenger, District 9, THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, Crazy Heart

Gone: The Lovely Bones, Star Trek

Hot: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, District 9 and Crazy Heart

Not: Invictus, Nine

Comment: The Lovely Bone collapse is complete as it drops entirely off the top 15 contenders for Best Pic...Nine's collapse is on-going and I expect it to continue. As a matter of fact, I think that the top 5 spots are solid, and that everything after that is still in play. I think it's likely that An Education and Invictus support is soft, that Up will suffer because it's animated and A Serious Man is awfully "small" and "nichey"...That means that any one of or maybe all 5 of the "outsiders" are still in play for a best Pic nomination.

Director: 1) K. Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) J. Cameron/Avatar, 3) J. REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Q. Tarantino/Basterds, 5) C. Eastwood/Invictus

Also...L. Daniels/Precious, L. SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, Coen Bros./Serious Man, M. HANEKE/THE WHITE RIBBON, J. CAMPION/BRIGHT STAR, P. Jackson/Lovely Bones

Gone: R. Marshall/Nine

Hot: Tanatino and Haneke

Not: Reitman and Daniels...although as noted above, the DGA nod today probably changes this assessment

Comment: Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are locks...then Eastwood, Daniels and Tarantino are duking it out for the last 2 spots...although Tarantino is closing in on lock status as well.

Best Actor: 1) G. CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 2) J. Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) C. Firth/A Single man, 4) M. Freeman/Invictus, 5) J. Renner/Hurt Locker

Others: D. Day-Lewis/Nine, V. MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, T. Maguire/Brothers, M. Sthulbarg/A Serious Man, B. Foster/The Messenger.

Hot: Maguire

Not:

Gone: Matt Damon/The Informant

Comment: The separation between the top five and the rest is now substantial. Renner has established himself as a probable nominee. Mortensen may have the best chance to sneak in and unseat Freeman or Renner...

Best Actress: 1) C. MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) M. Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) G. Sidibe/Precious, 4) S. Bullock/Blind Side, 5) H. MIRREN/LAST STATION

Others: M. Cotillard/Nine, A. CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, S. Ronan/Lovely Bones, E. Blunt/Young Victoria, P. Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Blunt

Not:

Gone:M. Gyllenhall/Crazy Heart

Comment: The 5 nominations are done.

Supporting Actor: 1) C. Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) C. PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 3) W. Harrelson/The Messenger, 4) S. Tucci/Lovely Bones, 5) M. Damon/Invictus

Others: A. MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, C. McKay/Orson Welles and Me, A. Baldwin/It's Complicated, A. Mackie/Hurt Locker, P. SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION

Hot:

Not: A. Molina

Gone:

Comment: Surprisingly, Tucci has been able to withstand the collapse of The Lovely Bones...so far. I think he and Damon are still vulnerable. McKay and Molina still have some hope.

Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) A. KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Others: S. Morton/The Messenger, M. Cotillard/Public Enemies, J. Dench/Nine, M. Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and D. Kruger/Inglorious Basterds.

Hot: Cotillard

Not:

Gone: Natalie Portman/Brothers and Sigourney Weaver/Avavtar

Comment: The top 4 spots seem solid. I think Cruz will drop and be replaced by Morton.

Adapted Script: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) AN EDUCATION, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 5) District 9 (although there is some buzz that it's not eligible!!!)

Others: Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are, Julie and Julia, THE LAST STATION, In the Loop

Hot: Dist. 9, Fox, and Wild Things

Not: Julie and Julia

Gone: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. The top three seem locked...then it's any one's guess for the last two spots. Gotta say...surprised that A Single Man dropped off the top ten.

Original Script: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) Up, 5) (500) Days of Summer

Others: The Messenger, It's Complicated, Avatar, WHITE RIBBON, BRIGHT STAR

Hot: The Messenger

Not: Avatar

Gone: District 9 (moved to Adapted)

Comment: The top 5 might have this locked already.

TECH Categories!

Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, Public Enemies...

Cinematography:Inglorious Basterds, Nine, The Hurt Locker, BRIGHT STAR, Avatar...

Film Editing: UP IN THE AIR, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Inglorious Basterds...

Score: Up, Avatar, The Informant, Sherlock Holmes, Where the Wild Things Are...

Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up Star Trek, Transformers...

Sound Mixing: Avatar, Transformers, Star Trek, Up, The Hurt Locker...

Costume: BRIGHT STAR, Nine, Young Victoria, Inglorious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes...

Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, Princess and the Frog (twice) and Everybody's Fine...

Documentary: The Cove, Food Inc., Every little Step, Burma VJ, Mugabe and the White African

Foreign Film: A PROPHET, THE WHITE RIBBON, SAMSON AND DELILAH, Letters to father Jacob, Broken Promise.

Predicted Nominations:

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds-8

UP IN THE AIR, Nine-7

Up-6 (includes anticipated Best Animation nom)

Invictus-5

Precious-4

AN EDUCATION, BRIGHT STAR-3

THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart-2

Telluride connected other possible nominations:

An Education-3

The Last Station-3

The White Ribbon-3

Bright Star-3

The Road-2

Coco Before Chanel-1

Toatal TFF #36 Nominations-18 (includes 3 in Foreign Film...excludes Animation, Short Doc)

Additional TFF #36 possibles: 15

Final thoughts:

Will Nine's collapse eat its Tech nominations?

Does the PGA nom mean Star Trek might stage a Best Pic comeback?

Do The Messenger, District 9 or The Last Station have enough steam to move into the Best Picture race in the next three weeks?

The Road sits at #16 on the Best Pic chart and #11 on Adapted Screenplay...any chance in either category?

Can anyone derail Waltz or Mo'Nique?

Nominations are 3 and 1/2 weeks away!