TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 9

Final number-crunching before tomorrow's nominations (data from : And the Winner Is, In Contention, Movie City News, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery)...TELLURIDE PICS IN CAPS AND BOLD...

Opening notes: DGA/PGA wins for The Hurt Locker...is it the lock to win Best Picture now??? I had thought for some time that Cameron would win Best Director and that Up in the Air would win Best Picture...I'm re-evaluating that now...

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) Inglorious Basterds, 4) UP IN THE AIR, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) Invictus, 9) District 9, 10) A Serious Man.

Spoilers: The Messenger, (500) Days of Summer, Nine, The Hangover, Star Trek

Comment:The top ten are so far out front that if anything else got a nod it would be pretty shocking...so look for a shocker or two...

My picks: I'll go with the chart...but...Messenger in and Invictus out???

Best Director: 1) Bigelow/Locker, 2) Cameron/Avatar, 3) Tarantino/Basterds, 4) REITMAN/UITA, 5) Daniels/Precious

Spoilers: Blomkamp/Dist. 9, Eastwood/Invictus

My Picks: Charts are right, no surprises here.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 5) Morgan Feeman/Invictus

Spoilers: MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Maguire/Brothers

My Picks: Gotta agree with the chart...although, like everything else with Invictus, Freeman has been losing steam...

Best Actress: 1) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia, 3) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION.

Spoilers: Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Marion Cotillard/Nine

My Picks: These 5 have been set for a long time.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus

Spoliers: ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, Anthony Mackie/The Hurt Locker, Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me

My Picks: Take the top 4 but move Matt Damon out in favor of Anthony Mackie.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UITA, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Spoilers: Samantha Morton/The Messenger, MaggieGyllenhall/Crazy Heart

My Picks: There's a real battle royale for the fifth spot here. I'll go with the chart top 4 and Samantha Morton.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) District 9, 5) Crazy Heart

Spoliers: Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Single Man, Julie and Julia

My Picks: No place else is the collapse of Invictus more clearly seen than in this category. It's totally gone...I'll go with UITA, Precious, EDUCATION, Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) (500) Days of Summer, 4) Up, 5) A Serious Man

Spoliers: The Hangover, Avatar

My Picks: Go with the charted 5

Best Foreign Film: 1) (tie) A PROPHET and THE WHITE RIBBON, 3)Ajami, 4) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 5) Winter in Wartime

Spoiler: Kelin

My Picks: I'll agree with the chart.

Best Documentary: 1) (tie) Food Inc and The Cove, 3) Every Little Step, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) Under Our Skin

Spoilers: Beaches of Agnes, Burma VJ, Facing Ali, Valentino: The Last Emperor.

My Picks: Food, Cove, Every Little Step, Facing Ali and Beaches of Agnes

Short Doc: LAST TRUCK, Lt. Wataba, Music by Prudence, Tell Them Anything

My Picks: OK

Tech Nominations:

Art Direction: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, A Serious Man, Public Enemies and Where the Wild Things Are. Spoilers: Sherlock Holmes, District 9, Start Trek, Bright Star

Cinematography: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, THE WHITE RIBBON. Spoilers: District 9

Costumes: BRIGHT STAR, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, Young Victoria

Spoilers: COCO BEFORE CHANEL

Film Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, UP IN THE AIR, District 9, Inglorious Basterds

Spoilers: Star Trek

Makeup: District 9, Star Trek, Dr. Parnassuss

Original Score: Avatar, The Informant!, Sherlock Holmes, Up, A Singlr Man

Spoiler: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Original Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, everybody's Fine, Princess and the Frog, Where the Wild Things Are

Spoilers: Second nominations for Nine and/or Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Transformers

Spoiler:Up

Sound Mixing: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker, Transformers

Spoiler: Up

Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Spoiler:2012

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Spoiler: Ponyo

Multiple Nominations per the charts:

Avatar-9

The Hurt Locker-8

UP IN THE AIR, Inglorious Basterds, District 9-7

Precious, Nine, Star Trek-5

Up-4

AN EDUCATION, Invictus, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart, A Single Man-3

THE WHITE RIBBON, THE LAST STATION, Sherlock Holmes, Princess and the Frog, Transformers-2

Comments: It's hard for me to believe that The Messenger, Crazy Heart, A Single Man and The Last Station may end up with multiple acting nominations, but NOT get into the expanded field of 10 Best Picture nominees. I can see each of them eking out an extra nom or two for screenplay or costuming and slipping into the ten...What are the films that are currently on the chart that are vulnerable: Invictus, Up, A Serious Man, District 9...

Saw The Hurt Locker this weekend, finally...good, not great...over-rated! Capping what has turned out to be a fairly mediocre year...

Last play for why The Road could sneak in...Moretensen is loved...and it's a good performance...they have to fill 10 spots. It's on 18 top ten lists (currently at #28 on the Movie City News critics scoreboard for the year...but a lot of what is ahead of it won't have a shot at a nomination...)and it was the best film of the year...

Watch for....

* If Maggie Gyllenhall gets nommed for Crazy Heart and/or it gets a screenplay nod...it's got a shot at a Best Picture nom

*If A Single Man gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture pool

*If Samantha Morton gets a nomination...The Messenger could be a Best Picture nom

*If Matt Damon does NOT get a Supporting nom...Invictus is in some trouble

*If The Last Station gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture lineup

And finally...if the charts are correct, TFF #36 will post 18 nominations tomorrow...