TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearingouse #11

With less than two weeks until Oscar night...almost no suspense...

TFF #36 films in bold

Here's the distilled wisdom from The Envelope, And the Winner Is, The Oscar Guy, Gurus of Gold, The Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker edges Avatar. No other really serious competition. If there was an upset...Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. Least Likely Winner: The Blind Side

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow is WAY OUT FRONT. Cameron is a distant second. Least Likely: Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in a walk. Clooney a distant challenger. Least Likely: Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock has a big lead with Meryl Streep her only real competition (this is where I think an upset happens and Streep wins). Least Likely: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor: Engrave Christoph Waltz's trophy now. Purported challenge: Harrelson. Least Likely: Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (and has been for months)...if there were a challenger it might be: Anna Kendrick (but she won't be). Least Likely: Penelope Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air is the massive favorite. Challenger...uh...Precious? Least Likely: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: An actual fight here! Hurt Locker has a tiny lead over Basterds (I'm leaning towards Basterds)...Least Likely: The Messenger

Animated: Up...Duh. Least Likely: The Secret of Kells

Documentary: The Cove has a substantial edge over Food Inc. Least Likely: Which Way Home

Foreign: Hey...an actual contested category...a 3 way battle brewing between The White Ribbon, A Prophet and The Secret of Her Eyes

Short Doc: The Last Truck way out front

Live Short: The Door in the lead

Art Direction: Avatar is the prohibitive favorite...Least Likely: Parnassus

Cinematography: A close race with Avatar barely in front of The Hurt Locker. Least Likely: Harry Potter

Costumes: Young Victoria is the prohibitive favorite. Least Likely: Parnassus

Film Editing: A close battle here again with Hurt Locker leading Avatar slightly. Least Likely: Precious

Sound Editing: Avatar is way out front. Least Likely: Inglourious Basterds

Sound Mixing: Again Avatar in a walk. Least Likely: Transformers

Visual Effects: Anyone think Avatar doesn't win this? Least Likely...well the other two

Score: Up has a big lead here. Least Likely: The Hurt Locker

Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart easily. Least Likely: Paris 36

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Final thoughts and personal predictions next week...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Official Telluride Film Festival Website has posted a brief release touting the films that played the fest this year and have been Oscar nominated.

You can find it here:

http://telluridefilmfestival.org/news/2010-02

Coming this week...charting the favorites to win on March 7...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 10

Here are this morning's Oscar nominations courtesy of Entertainment Weekly:

Best Picture:

Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Comment: Blind Side in and Invictus out. I'm not surprised that Invictus didn't get nominated...I am a little surprised that The Blind Side is what grabbed what had been its spot for the last several months. The Chart goes

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Comment: Chart and I both said these five. Seems the Invictus swoon did not sink either Freeman or Damon.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

Comment: Again, the chart and I 5 for 5...no surprises at all here.

Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Again 5 for 5 with the chart. I lose out having picked The Hurt Locker's Anthony Mackie instead of Damon. I was personally still hoping for a little love for Alfred Molina.

Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious .

Comment: The chart hits 4 of 5...missing Maggie Gyllenhall for Julianne Moore. i missed that as well in addition to thinking Samantha Morton could supplant Penelope Cruz...so I go 3 for 5.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, James Cameron, Avatar, Lee Daniels, Precious, Jason Reitman, Up in the Air, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Done and done.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man, Pete Docter, Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy, Up, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds .

Comment: Chart and I 4 for 5...missed The Messenger for (500) Days of Summer...and makes you wonder if The Messenger was kind of close in the Best Picture category?

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop, Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9, Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious, Nick Hornby, An Education, Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air .

Comment: The Chart goes 4 for 5 and I go 3 for 5. The Chart and I both miss "In the Loop" I also had Julie and Julia instead of District 9. In the Loop wasn't a total surprise as it had been floating around the chart on and off for quite some time.

Best Animated Film: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up.

Comment: Me and the chart 4 for 5. "The Secret of the Kells"???What the?

Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto do Sus Ojos (Argentina), Un Prophete (France), The White Ribbon (Germany), Ajami (Israel), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru).

Comment:3 for 5 for the chart and me...I think the absence of Samson and Delilah is kind of a surprise.
Best Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria .

Comment: Man, am I glad I didn't pick the tech categories this year...the chart goes 1 for 5...sheesh...It got Avatar right and missed everything else.

Best Cinematography:Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon

Comment:Chart hits 4 for 5 missing Harry Potter with Nine

Best Costume Design: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5 missing Parnassus and Coco with Basterds and Sherlock.

Best Documentary: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.

Comment: Chart was a whopping 2 for 5. Most Dangerous Man was sort of a surprise...Which Way Home is a stunner.

Best Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious.

Comment: $ for 5. Missing Precious for UITA...

Best Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.

Comment: 1 for 3...

Best Score: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5. Missed Fox and The Hurt Locker.

Best Song: “Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman,

“Down in New Orleans,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman

“Loin de Paname,” Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas

“Take It All,” Nine, Maury Weston

“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart, T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham

Comment: 3 for 5 with Take It All being the big surprise.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up

Comment: 3 for 5...

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious , Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Comment: 4 for 5

Best Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Comment: Got 'em...there's a shocker!

Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit à la Berlin

Best Animated Short: French Roast, Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Live-Action Short:The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants

TFF #36 and the Oscar Clearinghouse #1 for 2009

Will everyone in this picture be nominated for Best Supporting Actress? (the female cast of "Nine")

Continuing what we started in this space last year, we'll devote some time and energy to compiling the best of the Oscar guessperts for the Big Eight categories from now til the ceremony in February...(Helfrich's..we'd love to be there!)...and we'll highlight the films getting the Oscar buzz that showed at the Telluride Film Festival. So lets' get started!

The Early Line on Best Picture...(note, the Academy goes to 10 nominees this year...uh...OK...)

Leaders: (with Telluride films in CAPS AND BOLD):

Invictus (Eastwood directs Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela with Matt Damon...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1057500/),

Nine (Daniel Day-Lewis and women...many, many women in Rob Marshall's film version of the stage musical based on Fellini's "8 1/2" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0875034/).

Precious (Lee Daniels directs this Sundance favorite...http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0929632/).

The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson directs the adaptation of the novel http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0380510/)

AN EDUCATION (Lone Scherfig directs Carey Mulligan, Peter Saarsgard and Alfred Molina in this coming of age story set in the 60's in England...a lot of buzz from Telluride! and it was a hit at Sundance too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1174732/ ).

The Hurt Locker (Kathryn Bigelow's consensus critical darling from earlier this summer http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0887912/).

Up (can Pixar get a Best Pic nom for this animated film? The expansion to ten slots makes it more likely...and it's a good movie too! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1049413/)

UP IN THE AIR (Jason Reitman's follow-up to Juno getting great traction from both Telluride and Toronto...Clooney also looking good for a nomination...see later http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1193138/).

Amelia (Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart...thought this would be in Telluride, I was wrong. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1129445/).

THE ROAD ( John Hillcoat directs Viggo Mortensen in a post apocalyptic America created by Cormac McCarthy http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0898367/).

Also in play: Avatar (James Cameron), A Serious Man (the Coen Brothers), BRIGHT STAR (Jane Campion), Capitalism: A Love Story (Michael Moore), and Public Enemies (Michael Mann...really???)

Comment: As hot as "Up in the Air" has been at both Telluride and Toronto, look for significant upward movement for all involved by the next post.

Director: In the lead: Clint Eastwood-Invictus, Rob Marshall-Nine, Lee Daniels-Precious, Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, And Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker. Lurking: LONE SCHERFIG-AN EDUCATION, Mira Nair-Amelia, Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0478304/), James Cameron-Avatar, and JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR. (no Reitman???)

Actor: Morgan Freeman-Invictus, GEORGE CLOONEY-UP IN THE AIR, Daniel Day-Lewis-Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN-THE ROAD (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1130080/), and Matt Damon-The Informant. Lurkers: Johnny Depp-Public Enemies (again...really???), Jeremy Renner-The Hurt Locker, Sean Penn-The Tree of Life, BEN WHISHAW-BRIGHT STAR, Michael Stuhlbarg-A Serious Man.

Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (she's really good! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1135503/), CAREY MULLIGAN-AN EDUCATION, Saroise Ronan-The Lovely Bones, Hilary Swank-Amelia, and ABBIE CORNISH-BRIGHT STAR (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0810784/). LurkeeLoos: Gabby Sidibe-Precious, AUDREY TAUTOU-COCO BEFORE CHANEL , Michelle Pfeiffer-Cheri, Michelle Monaghan-Trucker, Penelope Cruz-Broken Embraces.

Supporting Actor: Matt Damon-Invictus ( a double nom?), ALFRED MOLINA-AN EDUCATION, Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0361748/) Stanley Tucci-The Lovely Bones, and Richard Kind-A Serious Man (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1019452/). On the cusp: Richard Gere-Amelia, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE-THE ROAD, Jeff Bridges-The Men Who Stare at Goats, PAUL SCHNEIDER-BRIGHT STAR, PETER SAARSGARD-AN EDUCATION (ought to be in the lead category).

Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious, Penelope Cruz-Nine, Judi Dench-Nine, Marion Cotillard-Nine, Susan Sarandon- The Lovely Bones. Also close: ANNA KENDRICK-UP IN THE AIR, Rachel Weisz-The Lovely Bones, Jessica Chastain-The Tree of Life, Sigourney Weaver-Avatar, and VERA FARMIGA-UP IN THE AIR.

Comment: Is it possible that this category could end up with all five nominees from "Nine"? or Mo'Nique plus 4 from "Nine"?

Adapted Screenplay: Kerrine Jenkins-Precious, NICK HORNBY-AN EDUCATION, Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens and Peter Jackson-The Lovely Bones, Anthony Peckham-Invictus, and JOE PENHALL-THE ROAD. Mentions: Michael Tolkin and Anthony Minghella-Nine, JASON REITMAN AND SHELDON TURNER-UP IN THE AIR, James Schamus-Taking Woodstock, Scott Z. Burns-The Informant!

Original Screenplay: Pete Docter and Bob Peterson, JANE CAMPION-BRIGHT STAR, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber-500 Days of Summer (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1022603/), Mark Boal-The Hurt Locker, and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen-A Serious Man. Other mentions: Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life, Ron Bass and Anna Hamilton Phelan, and Tony Gilroy-Duplicity (really???)

Other notes: Most "noms" on the first chart...6 for "Nine" and "The Lovely Bones". "Nine"also leads in the nom/lurk category with 8.

Five Telluride films seem to have at least some heat now: An Education, Up in the Air, The Road, Bright Star and Coco Before Chanel with a combined total of 11 "nominations" predicted in the big eight categories and another 11 "possibles". An Education leads with 4 noms and 2 possibles followed by Up in the Air with 2 and 3, The Road with 3 and 1, Bright Star with 2 and 4 and Coco with 1 possible.

Overall..as noted Nine and The Lovely Bones are out front with significant expectations for Invictus with 5 noms, Precious with 4 and 1, The Hurt Locker with 3 and 1, Amelia with 2 and 3 and A Serious Man with 2 and 2. We'll see what happens when the studios whose strategy has been to hold off from the festival circuit release Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones...

And, of course, there are always the tech awards that will add to nomination totals and the foreign films Telluride films that could make some noise in this category include: A Prophet, Vincere, and Samson and Delilah.

Back in 2-3 weeks with an update!

TF#36 Post Mortem

Welllll...so how'd we do in the run up to this year's Telluride Film Festival??? The answer is "so-so". I felt like the reported films that we sniffed out we pretty much got right...even when we waffled. Let me explicate.

I think the blog can justifiably claim we got "Bright Star," "Life During Wartime," "The Road," "The Last Station" (at the last minute), and "Vincere" (also at the last minute). At least to some extent we can claim we got it right on "An Education" (despite the uncertainty because it had been a Sundance film) and also "Up in the Air".

I also feel that we certainly shaded the likelihood of "The White Ribbon," "Coco Before Chanel"and "A Prophet".

But we did whiff big time on "Amelia," "Broken Promises," "Sympathy for Delicious," and "Precious" (like "An Education", this was a Sundance entry). And we were totally wrong on "Lebanon."

But we figured out "Bad Lieutenant" late in the game, and were redeemed by the sneak of "My Son, My Son..." Our mistake was underestimating how much Werner Herzog was going to be a part of TFF #36.

All in all, it seemed like we got better at the "reportage" part this year, but were just about as bad as last year in terms of the "educated" guess work. We were thrown by the absence this year of Fox Searchlight...particularly since they had been well represented in recent festivals (i.e. "Slumdog")...and the demise of Paramount Vantage and Warner Independent also presented challenges to our guess work.

Finally a shout out to the new folks who were kind enough to read/follow the blog this year and drop a comment or two along the way. Made us feel like we were actually doing something worthwhile rather just amusing ourselves...so thanks...Kelly, Gant, Jen, Jarrette, Matt, Rich, Haywood, M. Austin and Reilly.

Later today...Oscar Clearinghouse #1 or 2009...I'll let some of you off the hook from the mandatory email alert for the new posts!

Day One

Patron Brunch...Check...good food and good conversation...talked with Laura Linney...see above. Also talked to Russian director Andrey Khrzhanovsky here with his film "A Room and a Half"... engaging fellow. May try to get his film in tomorrow.

Today' s films: "An Education" Good performances from Carey Mulligan and Alfred Molina...the picture itself...so-so...2 1/2 stars (out of 4)

"Coco Before Chanel" I'm an Audrey Tautou fan...but...film starts well and then about half hour in, the slog begins...2 stars tops.

Tomorrow: Probably "Life During Wartime" and "The Last Station" (dame Helen Mirren is supposed to do a Q &A after). AND FINALLY..."Up in the Air" will sneak preview here tomorrow afternoon...my sources on this are really good...Jason Reitman expected to be here to intro the film...I'll be there for sure.