Oscar #97 in the Rear View / Forging Ahead

OSCAR #97 IN THE REAR VIEW

Sunday night's Oscar ceremony brought few, if any, real upsets.  I personally was 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate which is among the lowest rates of success since I started posting Oscar predictions on this site. 

Still, in the case of the seven misses, my "Possible Upset" picked up the statuette in five of the seven categories: Actress, Documentary, Animated Feature, Editing and Documentary Short.  Leaving out the Shorts categories, I was a much more respectable 16 of 20 for 80% among the Feature categories.

I felt some better the next morning when Gold Derby posted the records of their experts..  Had I been among them (there are 38 of them) I would have tied for eighth overall.  Among those with which I tied were Indiewire's Anne Thompson and The Contending's Mark Johnson.  Some experts over which I had a better score were: The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg (65.2%), Deadline's Pete Hammond (65.2%), ABC's Peter Travers (56.5%)  and Variety's Clayton Davis (56.5%).

So, as I said after the nominations dropped in January...where do I apply to be a Gold Derby expert?

Again. TFF films nabbed 10 Oscars.  That's the best since the 2016 edition of TFF when fest films earned 12 Oscars (the year of Moonlight and La La Land).  This year's collection is either tied for second or third most depending if you count the 2008 year wherein Slumdog Millionaire won eight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which won three.  Button only screened a few minutes as a part of the tribute to David Fincher.  So 2008 might be eight or eleven if you count Button.

TFF's 2013 edition had 10 Oscars.  That was the 12 Years a Slave (3) and Gravity (7) year.

Here's another thing that I found revealing.  Since I started the polling of Telluride attendees both with the People and the Professionals TFF has had nine films win Best Picture:

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Birdman

Spotlight

Moonlight

The Shape of Water

Parasite

Nomadland***

Anora

Eight of the nine finished at #1 on the Composite Telluride ratings where I add the ratings from the People and the Professionals together.  The only exception was Nomadland which, of course, couldn't be polled as the fest didn't happen due to Covid.  I still count it as TFF film Best Picture Oscar winner as the fest went out of its way  to premiere the film in Los Angeles as a Drive-In experience.

Seems to me that hitting that #1 Composite spot is kind of telling.  

Other films since I started polling that had the #1 Composite rating but did not win Best Picture:

2018- Roma

2021-The Power of the Dog

2022-TAR

2023-Poor Things

Anora became the 12th TFF film to win Best Picture.

Of the 12, six World Premiered at Telluride: 

Slumdog Millionaire

The King's Speech

Argo

12 Years a Slave

Moonlight

Nomadland (see above)

Three screened at Venice before Telluride:

Birdman

Spotlight

The Shape of Water

Three screened at Cannes before telluride:

The Artist

Parasite

Anora

Of the five other films that have won Best Picture since Slumdog in 2008, no other festival World Premiered the subsequent Best Picture more than once:

2009: The Hurt Locker (Venice, so it totals five)

2018: Green Book (Toronto)

2021: CODA (Sundance)

2022: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (South by Southwest)

2023: Oppenheimer (No Festival appearance)

FORGING AHEAD

So Oscar is done for another season and MTFB turns to the sleuthing of films for the TFF #52 lineup.  Regular readers have already seen some analysis here based on "Most Anticipated" lists from a couple of outlets since the turn of the year.

Now our attention will turn to two primary areas that can give clues...early Oscar predictions and Cannes speculation.  I'll start parsing that with Monday's post.

For those who might remember last year's debacle concerning purchasing tickets...no problem this year.  We've got them and lodging locked down.  Bring on TFF #52!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Oscar Update: Best Actor / IDA Nominations and TFF #47 / Dweck and Kershaw on The Truffle Hunters / Italy Chooses Notturno / THR's Favorites of the Decade

OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 29th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (2)

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (1)

3) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods/ (4)

4) Gary Oldman/Mank (3)

5) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (6)

6) Tom Hanks/News of the World (5)

7) Steven Yeun/Minari (7)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (-)

9) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (8)

10) George Clooney/The Midnight Sky (-)

Others: Colin Firth/Supernova, Daniel Kaluuya or LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

Hot: Bosman, Ahmed, Ben-Adir, Clooney

Not: Firth

IDA NOMINATIONS AND TFF #47

The International Documentary Association announced nominations for this year's crop of docs and a couple of TFF #47 films were among the most nominated.  Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters and Sam Pollard's MLK/FBI were two of the most honored films as each film nabbed three nominations apiece.  

The Truffle Hunters (which admittedly has now become a bit of an obsession for me this awards season) was nominated for Best Feature Doc, Director(s) and Cinematography.  

Meanwhile, MLK/FBI was nominated for Best Doc Feature, Director an ABC Video Source Award and Director Sam Pollard was also cited for a career achievement.

Also from TFF #47, short docs The Lost Astronaut from director Ben Proudfoot was nominated as was Unforgivable from director Marlen Vinayo.

The complete list of IDA nominees is linked here from Next Best Picture.

DWECK AND KERSHAW ON THE TRUFFLE HUNTERS

A couple of big interviews this week with the directors of The Truffle Hunters.  Eric Kohn of Indiewire leads a 40ish minute video interview with Gregory Kershaw and Michael Dweck about the film as a part of the IDA Documentary Screening Series.  That is here from YouTube:

Additionally, Dweck and Kershaw also were interviewed by Pat Saperstein for Variety and that was posted yesterday.  That interview/profile is linked here.

ITALY CHOOSES NOTTURNO

Italy has anmed Gianfranco Rosi's documentary, Notturno as its official selection for competition for the Academy Awards Best International Feature category.  The film was a selection of TFF #47.  Notturno is described as:

"a new documentary is an immersive portrait of those trying to survive in the war-torn Middle East."

In addition to TFF #47, the film was also selected by Toronto, New York, London, IDFA and the AFI Fest among others.

Notturno was chosen over the Edoardo Ponti project The Life Ahead which features the first performance from legend Sophia Loren since Rob Marshall's Nine in 2009.

Variety has the story here.

THR'S FAVORITES OF THE DECADE

The Hollywood Reporter polled 3,500 "industry professionals" and asked them for their "favorite movies" of the decade.  The results of that poll were published Wednesday and TFF films did well.  Among the top 20 fave films of the decade that made an appearance at TFF:

#20 The King's Speech

#11 Birdman

#9 Argo

#6 La La Land

#2 12 Years a Slave

Lots of big budget actioners and superhero films made the list and Jordan Peele's Get Out was named the overall favorite of the decade.

The complete list of 20 films from THR can be found linked here.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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A Look at Mr. Holmes/A Look at Lubezki/Step Right Up

Good Late Thursday morning to everyone...

Today's post is up a little later than usual due to weather issues here in the Great Plains.  Bouncing back today, though.


A LOOK AT MR. HOLMES

After its premiere at the Berlin International Film Festival, the producers/distribs for Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" have set a June 19th date to open the film in the U.K. but no U.S. date is set as yet.  I still am hoping/campaigning for it to be a Telluride choice.

At any rate, a teaser/trailer has appeared.  It looks cool.

Here are links to some posts that include the trailer and have additional information:

http://time.com/3733028/mr-holmes-ian-mckellen-sherlock-sherlock-holmes-mitch-cullin/


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-sherlock-holmes-tackles-an-unsolved-case-in-first-trailer-for-mr-holmes-starring-ian-mckellen-20150304


http://www.hitfix.com/harpy/ian-mckellen-playing-sherlock-holmes-is-the-casting-you-didnt-know-you-needed


A LOOK AT LUBEZKI

The last two Best Cinematography Oscars have gone to Emmanuel Lubezki and both for Telluride films: "Gravity" and "Birdman".

The Playlist, among others, has linked to a Vimeo supercut of the masters work.  It's also cool.  Look here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-breathtaking-supercut-celebrates-the-work-of-cinematographer-emmanuel-lubezki-20150304


STEP RIGHT UP

And perhaps you got this in your email earlier this week:

Join us for the 42nd Telluride Film Festival this Labor Day Weekend Friday, September 4th through Monday, September 7th, 2015.

Our online Box Office opens today Monday, March 2nd, 2015 at 9AM PST. You will need a headshot for your pass at the time of purchase — take the time now to scan that special shot, or better yet take a selfie with your camera phone. Any picture that is a close-up of your face will do.

If filling in information online gives you pause, use our downloadable form to complete your order. Available on our website, simply download the form, fill it out by hand and then mail your check and order form to Festival Headquarters. We'll still need those gorgeous photos.

If you have any questions on the best way to order your pass, or other general inquiries regarding the Festival, give us a call at 510.665.9494.

We are deeply grateful for your generosity and continuous support. Thank you, and see you at the SHOW!

That's right, passes went on sale for TFF #42.  It begins!

Here's the link to the official website for pass info:

http://www.telluridefilmfestival.org/show/passes

That's all for now...more on Monday!

Telluride and Oscar in 2015/Already Oscar #88 Musings/News and Notes from Past Tellurides/Birdman Action Figure Commercial

Good Thursday everyone.

TELLURIDE AND OSCAR

As you might expect, I didn't shy away from mentioning on Monday that with "Birdman's" Best Picture Oscar win on Sunday night that Telluride has now hosted the Best Pic winner for the last five consecutive years and six of the last seven.

As you might also expect, I'm not the only one who noticed.  Kristopher Tapley, who, by the by, had the best prognostication record among the Oscar experts at 20/24 and who is an annual Telluride attendee, made note of it as well in this post that appeared earlier this week:


http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/birdman-oscar-win-again-proves-telluride-an-oscar-season-good-luck-charm


ALREADY OSCAR #88 MUSINGS

As expected, the body of the 87th Oscars isn't even cold yet, but Oscar detectives have already started mulling over the next edition with some fearless picks about what films could make the cut a year from now.  Their musings also give us some information to mull an=bout some of the films that could be programmed for TFF #42.  Check predictions from The Hollywood Reporter and The Chicago Sun Times:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2016-predictions-best-picture-774353


http://entertainment.suntimes.com/movies/2016-oscars-guessing-game-begins/


NEWS AND NOTES FROM PAST TELLURIDES

I stumbled across a couple of interesting news bits this week that included past Telluride Film Festival connections.

The former President of the Maldives who was featured in the TFF documentary "The Isalnd President" has been arrested and charged with treason in the Maldives and Clark Terry, one of the musicians involved with the doc "Keep On Keepin' On" died.  Both of those stories are here from The New York Times and Time.com:


http://time.com/3718344/maldives-president-mohamed-nasheed-arrest-protests-charges-terrorism/


http://time.com/3718438/clark-terry-obit-jazz-trumpeter-educator/




BIRDMAN ACTION FIGURE FAUX COMMERCIAL

And finally, from the whimsy department.  A commercial exists for a Birdman action figure.  Check it here:

Rope of Silicon has the story:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/watch-birdman-action-figure-commercial/


More on Monday...

Oscar in the Rear View-Birdman Wins Best Picture

Good Monday everyone,

OSCAR IN THE REVIEW

The 87th Academy Awards closed the awards season last night with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's  "Birdman" (TFF 41) winning the big prize for Best Picture.  "Birdman" also won for Direction, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.

Those were four of the seven won by Telluride programmed films.  The others were single trophies for "Feast"-Best Animated Short, "The Imitation Game"-Best Adapted Screenplay and "Ida" (TFF #40)-Best Foreign Language Film.

For the fifth consecutive year and the sixth time out of the last seven years, the Best Picture winner ran through Telluride:

2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2012- Argo
2013-12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman

Other winners from Sunday night were:

"The Grand Budapest Hotel"- Best Production Design, Best Costumes. Best Makeup/Hair, Best Original Score for a total of four wins to tie "Birdman" for the largest number of wins.

"Whiplash" picked up three awards: Best Supporting Actor-J.K. Simmons,  Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing.

No other film had more than one win including the film that was thought to be the co-frontrunner with "Birdman", "Boyhood".  "Boyhood" won only Patricia Arquette's Best Supporting Actress trophy.

Other winners:

Best Actor; Eddie Redmayne/"The Theory of Everything"
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/"Still Alice"
Best Doc: "Citizenfour"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Imitation Game"
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper"
Best Visual Effects: "Interstellar"
Best Song: "Glory" from "Selma"
Best Animated Feature: "Big Hero 6"
Best Foreign Language Film: "Ida"
Best Animated Short: "Feast"
Best Short Doc: "Crisis Hotline"
Best Live Action Short: "The Phone Call"


Ina very weird turn, each of the eight Best Picture nominees won at least one Oscar.

The FAC went 20/24 on the night for 83% success on predictions.  The FAC missed Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score and Animated Feature.

That's it for Oscar coverage for this year.  The Blog returns to its full time obsession with the Telluride Film Festival and the possible players for TFF #42.

Thanks for playing...

The Final Film Awards Clearinghouse Oscar Predictions/Updated Oscar Predictions from the Experts/Independent Spirits: Bird and Boy

It's Oscar morning in America Ladies and Germs...

THE FINAL FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE OSCAR PREDICTIONS

Here it is friends, the last stab at trying to sort out Oscar's choices before the show goes live tonight. As always. these predictions are strictly for fun and entertainment...no wagering...

Last year THE FAC was 22 of 24 for a 91.7% accuracy.  This year won't be that good.

Past year's accuracy:

2013: 18 of 24 = 75%
2012: 18 of 24 = 75%
2011: 17 of 21 = 81%
2010: 14 of 24 = 58.3%


The FAC  uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

THE LOCKS:  These films and folks are 99% certain to pick up hardware tonight:

Julianne Moore- Best Actress for "Still Alice"

Patricia Arquette-Best Supporting Actress for "Boyhood"

JK Simmons-Best Supporting Actor for "Whiplash"

"Citizenfour"-Best Documentary

"Birdman"-Best Cinematography

"Boyhood"-Film Editing 

"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Production Design

THE VERY PROBABLE...BUT...

"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Costumes (but an outside shot for "Into the Woods")

"How to Train Your Dragon 2"- Best Animated Feature (Spoiler: "Big Hero 6")

"Glory" from "Selma"-Best Original Song (Outside shot: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" from "I'll Be Me")

"American Sniper"-Best Sound Editing (Spoiler" "Birdman")

THE LIKELY BUT AN UPSET IS ALSO VERY POSSIBLE

Eddie Redmayne-Best Actor for "The Theory of Everything".  Michael Keaton could still surprise with  a win for "Birdman" but that's certainly NOT the way the experts see this category.  Still, I'm going to step away from my own FAC metric and pick a Keaton win here.  Mostly because it's what I want to happen here.

"Ida"-Best Foreign Language Film.  "Wild Tales" or "Leviathan" could sneak away with the award.  The FAC stays with "Ida"

"The Grand Budapest Hotel"-Best Makeup/Hair though either "Guardians of the Galaxy" or "Foxcatcher" could surprise.

"American Sniper"-Best Sound Mixing.  "Birdman" is your potential upset winner here.

"Interstellar"-Best Visual Effects.  The spoiler could be "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" or "Guardians of the Galaxy".


THE "TOO CLOSE TO CALL" BUT WE'RE GOING TO CALL THEM ANYWAY:

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Three films with a realistic choice here.  THE FAC SAYS: "Feast" but look out for "The Dam Keeper" or "The Bigger Picture".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Any of the five could win.  "Parveneh", "Boogaloo and Graham", "Butter Lamp", "Aya" but THE FAC SAYS: "Phone Call".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:  A tight, tight race but THE FAC SAYS: "Crisis Hotline" edges "Joanna"

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE- A barn burner between "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel"  THE FAC SAYS: "The Theory of Everything".

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: "The Imitation Game" won the WGA ans the USC Scripter awards but "Whiplash" has come on strong since it was discovered that The Academy regarded the script as adapted from an earlier short version of the film rather than an original script.  Also, there is thought to be strong support for "American Sniper".  THE FAC SAYS: "The Imitation Game"

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: It's "Budapest" versus "Birdman" versus "Boyhood"  with "Budapest" holding the edge here in the last FAC chart.  THE FAC SAYS: "The Grand Budapest Hotel".  If a "Birdman" mini-sweep evolves, and I think it could, this could end up being  a part of that.

BEST DIRECTOR:  The last FAC had this as a dead heat between Alejandro Inarritu/"Birdman" and Richard Linklater/"Boyhood" with the edge going to Linklater and a split between Best Director and Best Picture likely.  I wrote then that I was sensing a shift to an Inarritu win.  THE FINAL FAC SAYS: Inarritu!

BEST PICTURE: THE FAC SAYS: "BIRDMAN" over "Boyhood".

If a "Birdman" wave occurs, it could win Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography and Sound Mixing.


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/big-bad-predictions-chart/  http://www.awardsdaily.com/main-tech-predictions/

Peter Howell/The Toronto Star:  http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2015/02/19/toronto-star-movie-critic-peter-howell-picks-boyhood-for-best-picture-oscar.html

MetaCritic:  http://www.metacritic.com/feature/final-predictions-for-the-2015-academy-awards

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/

Kristopher Tapley/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-87th-annual-academy-awards

Joey Magidson/Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/19/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-joey-magidson/

Cara Buckley/The Carpetbagger:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/19/oscars-2015-the-carpetbaggers-predictions/

Richard Corliss/Time:

http://time.com/3712257/oscars-2015-predictions-who-will-win/

Tomris Laffley/Popcorn Business:

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2015/02/predictions-of-87th-academy-awards-and.html

INDEPENDENT SPIRITS: BIRD AND BOY

The Independent Spirit Awards were handed out yesterday honoring the best in American independent cinema.  "Birdman" won three trophies: Picture, Actor and Cinematography while "Boyhood" won for Best Direction and Supporting Actress.  The complete coverage is here from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-2015-indie-spirit-award-winners-as-theyre-announced-20150221

 I'll have more tomorrow in my regular Monday post-post Oscar post and, as you might expect< I'll be live-tweeting tonight as the ceremony is unfolding.  Find me on Twitter @Gort2

Sixteen Oscar Categories/The Big Eight Again/Final Predictions from the Experts

Good Thursday Everyone...Oscar happens in 3 days!

SIXTEEN OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here's where The Film Awards Clearinghouse is as far the "below-the-line" Oscar categories are concerned.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) How to Train Your Dragon 2
2) Big Hero 6
3) The Boxtrolls
4) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5) Song of the Sea

Comment:  "Dragon's" lead is substantial.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Citizenfour
2) Virunga
3) The Last Days of Vietnam
4) Finding Vivian Maier
5) Salt of the Earth

Comment: It's a huge surprise if "Citizenfour" doesn't win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Ida
2) Wild Tales
3) Leviathan
4) Timbuktu
5) Tangerines

Comment:  "Ida" is out front, but any of the top three films could win.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Mr. Turner
4) Unbroken
5) Ida

Comment: "Birdman" easily.  Lubezki wins second in a row.

BEST COSTUMES

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Malificent
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: "Budapest" is likely but "Into the Woods" could surprise.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood
2) Whiplash
3) American Sniper
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) The Imitation Game

Comment: "Boyhood's" perceived lead is huge.  Personally, I could see a "Whiplash" upset here.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

Comment:  A "Budapest" win is very likely but not a slam dunk.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel (tie)
2) The Theory of Everything
3) The Imitation Game
4) Interstellar
5) Mr. Turner

Comment: This race is a dead heat with "Budapest" getting the edge based on #1 positions among the experts I analyze.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma
2) I'm not Gonna Miss You/I'll Be Me
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Lost Stars/Begin Again
5) Grateful/Beyond the Lights

Comment: "Glory"   has the edge in a notoriously difficult category to predict.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) The Imitation Game
5) Interstellar

Comment: "Budapest" with a substantial edge here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Interstellar
4) Unbroken
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Comment:  "Sniper" has a solid lead.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Whiplash
4) Interstellar
5) Unbroken

Comment: "Sniper's" position is less secure here as opposed to Sound Editing...

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

Comment: This is a close race between the top three in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Bigger Picture (3 way tie)
2) Feast
2) The Dam Keeper
4) A Single Life
5) Me and My Moulton

Comment: This race is too close to call between all three of the top listed films.  "Bigger Picture" got The FAC nod as it's listed at the top by two of the experts.  Frankly, I'm leaning toward "The Dam Keeper".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Crisis Hotline
2) Joanna
3) The Reaper
4) White Earth
5) Our Curse

Comment: a two film race between "Crisis" and "Joanna".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Phone Call
2) Parveneh
3) Boogaloo and Graham
4) Butter Lamp
5) Aya

Comment: "Phone Call" with a slight edge in a category that any of the five could win.


THE BIG EIGHT AGAIN

This is a re-post of the Big Eight categories that I posted on Sunday.  EXPECT AN UPDATE ON OSCAR MORNING!!!

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

FURTHER NOTE: Since Sunday's original post, Tapley has gone back to a "Birdman" choice, giving the Inarritu film a little breathing room.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I'm linking the "final" Oscar predictions here from any number of Oscarologists some of which I use for The FAC, some I don't.  I'll update the "Finals" section as we go through the rest of the week...

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/


Again, a FINAL FAC ON SUNDAY...

And Down the Stretch They Come/The Film Awards Clearinghouse: Less than a Week to Go/Writers Guild Awards/Berlin Winners/Birdman, Wild and Imitation Game Pieces/ Cannes Serious Speculation

Good Monday World...


AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME

Well...we're less than a week from answering all the Oscar questions.  Some categories are locked up (Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress).  Some categories are really thrilling: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplays.  Some are obscure: Shorts: Feature, Documentary, Animated. Nevertheless, by this time next week, I'll be posting the annual Oscar aftermath/analysis and we'll all find things about which to be pleased, puzzled and outraged.

Then it'll start up again.

Honestly, it's really already started again with the Berlin fest concluding (see report below) and Cannes peeking around the corner.  We've already had a slew of "most anticipated" film lists for 2015 to chew over.  Once Oscar 2015 is in the rear view, we'll have some peeps that'll begin the early speculation about Oscar 2016.  Also coming, and in earnest, speculation about what films make the Cannes lineup and with that my Telluride #42 analysis/speculation will get more serious as well.

It's been a truly intriguing season and fun too.  When Telluride #41 was over, my favorite film of the weekend was Inarritu's "Birdman".  My belief at the time was that Keaton was going to be really hard to beat for Best Actor and that Inarritu might be have a real shot at Best Director and Original Screenplay but that the film itself might just be outside of The Academy's Best Picture comfort zone.  Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" seemed like the most likely BP film from Telluride.

Now, at less than a week before the envelopes are open, it appears to be a two film dead heat between The Bird and The Boy (Richard Linklater's "Boyhood").  You'll see how tight it looks on the chart below.  After last year's down-to- the- wire battle between "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" I anticipated that we'd have a much less competitive race this year and for most of the season, it looked that way as almost every prognosticator thought "Boyhood" was the inevitable Best Picture winner. But with "Birdman's" strong Guild showing, the calculations have changed and it is, again, very, very close.

"Boyhood's" BAFTA wins last weekend seem to have turned the pundits away from a wholesale stampede to crown "Birdman" Best Picture and so, here we are.  It's a squeaker, it would seem, and The Academy's use of a preferential ballot will tell the tale.  Where do the votes go from the down ballot films once they're eliminated?  If this week's FAC is to be believed, "Whiplash" looks like the first film that'll drop off the ballot...what will its supporters have in that #2 spot?  Those votes will be re-apportioned to remaining films.

There is a threshold percentage that a film has to maintain in each round to stay in contention (I'm not certain what that is) but this process goes on until some film hits 50% plus one of the total #1 votes after a round of re-apportioning and that's your winner.

So, if all the "Whiplash" voters put "Birdman" at #2...the Bird gets much closer to flying.

A number of the real Oscar blogger types have run simulations.  I believe InContention and The Wrap have.  So, if you have an interest in a deeper look at the process, you might look at both of those blogs.  They're in my list of linked sights to the right of this column.

Personally, I still haven't caught "Boyhood".  It might really send me over the moon and I know I'll get there eventually (I actually nearly watched it Friday night but opted for "Nightcrawler" instead.  Was not disappointed.  A very good film and Jake Gyllenhaal gives what might be his best performance).  So, it doesn't make a lot of sense that I'm hoping for a "Birdman" win on Sunday night.  Maybe, with a "Boyhood" viewing, I might conclude that it really is the best film of the year.  But I doubt it.  I said in T-ride last Labor Day that I thought "Birdman" was a masterpiece and Inarritu's best film and I still think that's true.  Besides, I want the Telluride string to continue...

Last note and then it's onto the FAC for the eight major categories...

Right at this minute, I've got a warm feeling about The Bird's chances and I mean beyond Best Picture.  I have a feeling it might have a big night: Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  Maybe one other.  Of course, that feeling could just as easily pass by tonight and go through multiple permutations by Sunday night...

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO-THE BIG EIGHT

Here's the latest Oscar snapshot from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the eight most anticipated categories.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold.  Telluride has 18 nominations form these eight major categories.

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director again this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, as mentioned above...and perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

Other notes:

There's some talk that "Whiplash" could come out of the night with the most Oscar wins.  Best Supporting Actor is a lock and Editing looks fairly likely.  A win for Adapted Screenplay isn't out of the question and it has to be a serious contender for Sound Mixing.  That's four of the five it's nominated for and that might be the biggest haul of the night (last year that honor went to "Gravity").

There's another school of thought that all eight of the Best Picture nominated films might walk away with at least one trophy on Sunday night.  That would be really unusual but I can see it happening.

I still can't grasp how "Foxcatcher" missed a Best Picture nomination.  Noms for direction, screenplay, actor and supporting actor...but not Best Picture.  It doesn't make a lot of sense.  But, then it IS Oscar..."sense" don't figure into it...pardon the grammar.

COMING THURSDAY...ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES RANKED FOR WINNERS IN THE ALMOST FINAL FAC!!!


WRITERS GUILD ANNOUNCES

The Writers Guild of America announced the winners of their awards for 2014 Saturday.  TFF #41 film "The Imitation Game" by Graham Moore won Best Adapted Screenplay.  Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" won Best Original Screenplay.  The WGA isn't always the best predictor of the Oscar winner in those categories due its stringent eligibility rules.  For example, "Birdman" was ineligible for consideration making "Budapest's" win less definitive.  Writers Guild coverage is linked here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/wga-awards-winners-2015-screenplay-tv-drama-comedy-1201434302/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-winners-list-773595

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-what-happened-at-773614

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/02/14/grand-budapest-hotel-and-imitation-game-win-wga-awards?hootPostID=c9532e7a922c816cefc0e745703441e5


BERLIN HAS WINNERS

The Berlin Film Fest came to an end Saturday with the announcement of award winners.  The Golden Bear was won by guerrilla Iranian film maker Jafar Panahi's "Taxi".  The film maker whose work is banned in Iran and yet continues to make films and smuggle them out of the country was recognized for his docu-drama.  Pablo Larrain's "The Club" was winner of the Silver Bear while acting prizes went to Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay for Andrew Haigh's "45 Years".

Frankly, I think all three films mentioned above, in addition to Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" all have a real shot to make the trip to Telluride over Labor Day.

Linked below is some serious Berlin Awards coverage:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-golden-bear-winners-announced-1201434184/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-the-golden-bear-in-berlin-20150214

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/taxi-and-45-years-top-winners-at-berlinale/

http://www.thewrap.com/jafar-panahi-wins-berlin-film-fests-golden-bear-for-taxi/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-golden-bear-at-2015-berlin-film-festival


BIRDMAN, WILD TAKES AND IMITATION GAME PIECES

As noted above, we're coming down the Oscar homestretch and I have linked some more of the late-in-the-game pieces for "Birdman", "Wild Tales"  and "The Imitation Game" here.

The first "Birdman" piece focuses on an extended clip from the film.  Variety has that here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/birdman-extended-scene-keaton-vs-the-critic-1201432945/

Meanwhile, Kristopher Tapley at InContention "digs a little deeper" into the film here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-dig-a-little-deeper-into-birdman-with-the-oscars-on-the-horizon

The New York Times published this "Making of" piece about Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated "Wild Tales" which is wildly considered the only film with a shot to deny "Ida" the Foreign Language Oscar.  It's here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/movies/awardsseason/the-making-of-wild-tales-an-oscar-nominee.html



Finally, two pieces both focused on "The Imitation Game" helmer and Oscar nominated Morten Tyldum.  One from IndieWire and the other from Gold Derby:


http://www.indiewire.com/awardsspotlight/mortem-tyldum-explains-why-alan-turing-was-the-right-subject-for-his-first-english-language-film-20150206

http://goldderby.libsyn.com/oscar-nominee-morten-tyldum-on-imitation-game-alan-turing-sex-and-awards


CANNES SERIOUS SPECULATION

And as mentioned above as well, the serious speculation about what will unspool at Cannes is heating up and took the form of this post from Cineuropa this week.  It's interesting but is also such an enormous list as to be not all that illuminating.

Titles that grabbed my attention included:

Stephen  Frears' "Icon" (his Lance Armstrong film)...though it is currently and ambiguously set for an August release in the U.S. which would mean no Telluride.

Thomas Vinterberg's "The Commune".  The article also mentions Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd" but that already has a U.S. release set for May 1st.

Matteo Garrone's "The Tale of Tales".

Todd Haynes' "Carol" starring Cate Blanchett

Jacques Audiard's "Erran".  Sundance Selects has already locked up the U.S. distribution for the film which should keep it in the Telluride conversation.  Last year the company was represented at Telluride by Ethan Hawke's "Seymour: An Introduction" and The Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night.

Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario" He's been programmed Telluride recently with "Prisoners" and "Incendies".

Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  The Weinsteins ("The Imitation Game") are distributing and See Saw Films is the production company ("Shame", "Tracks").

Sean Penn's "The Last Face" starring Charlize Theron, Javier Bardem and Adele Exarchopolous.  Penn' last directing effort "Into the Wild" played Telluride in 2007.

Barbet Schroeder's "Amnesia".  Schroeder has had a long relationship with Telluride but hasn't been represented at the festival since 2007's "Terror's Advocate".

There are a lot more titles to mull.  Look here:

http://cineuropa.org/nw.aspx?t=newsdetail&l=en&did=286876



More coming on Thursday including the complete 24 category Film Awards Clearinghouse Nearly Final Oscar Predictions.

Directors Guild Announcement and BAFTA Means Oscar Looming/Films Making Noise from 41/Looking Ahead to 42

Good Monday to All...

DIRECTORS GUILD ANNOUNCEMENT AND BAFTA MEANS OSCAR LOOMING

Alejandro G. Inarritu was named the awarded the Best Direction prize last night by the DGA for "Birdman".  With that and wins from the PGA and SAG (ensemble) it might now be the real favorite for Best Picture on Oscar night.

Alejandro G. Inarritu with The DGA via HitFix/InContention

Here's some of the coverage and analysis from last night's announcement:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/alejandro-g-inarritu-wins-directors-guild-award-for-birdman/1

http://deadline.com/2015/02/birdman-dga-win-oscar-1201368817/

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/dga-prize-boosts-birdman-in-oscar-race-analysis-1201427652/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/dga-feature-award-goes-to-birdman-gaining-oscar-momentum-20150208

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/dga-awards-alejandro-g-inarritu-771156

But a "Birdman" win is not foreordained.  "Boyhood" rocked three BAFTA awards Sunday including Best Picture, Director and the expected Best Supporting Actress.  That closed the 24 hour cycle that had all but anointed "Birdman".  At this point, it seems to me that the "Bird" is flying a little higher than the "Boy" but neither film has this locked up.  Also, with a preferential ballot, despite that fact that it has been essentially a no-show throughout the Oscar run-up, I still think "The Imitation Game" could sneak onto enough ballots as #1, #2 and #3 to surprise come Oscar night.

Eddie Redmayne picked up the BAFTA Best Actor award.  He has to be considered the front runner, but I still stubbornly insist that a Michael Keaton win is possible.

I have linked BAFTA coverage and analysis here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/bafta-awards-boyhood-shows-signs-771273

http://deadline.com/2015/02/bafta-awards-analysis-baftas-winners-losers-1201368766/

http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2015/02/08/and-the-winners-of-the-2015-british-academy-film-awards-are/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/20-weeks-to-oscar-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-best-picture-2/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/the-state-of-the-race-boyhood-is-honored-in-england-while-hollywood-sends-a-message-to-studios/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/off-the-carpet-how-to-look-at-what-the-guilds-and-bafta-awards-have-told-us

Oscar voting has begun and is ongoing.



FILMS MAKING NOISE FROM 41

Quick looks here at three films that were highlighted by stories on the web since my last post.  first, an interview from Gold Derby with "The Imitation Game" screen writer Graham Moore:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/8416/graham-moore-interview-imitation-game-oscars-entertainment-13579086-story.html

Andrea Gronvall profiles Gabe Polsky, the director of the documentary "Red Army":

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/the-gronvall-report-gabe-polsky-on-red-army/

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon passes on a story of the original ending for Alejandro G. Inarritu's "Birdman".  It might have been very, very different:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/original-birdman-ending-revealed-feature-johnny-depp/

Finally, this from FirstShowing.net...a trailer for Eyhan Hawke's very well received documentary "Seymour: An Introduction":

http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/must-watch-trailer-for-ethan-hawkes-seymour-an-introduction/


LOOKING AHEAD TO 42

The Berlin International Film Festival is underway.  In the run up to the fest IndieWire posted a piece highlighting nine films that they were excited about.  The list includes a few films that I've been thinking are real Telluride possibilities:  "Queen of the Desert" (although the reviews aren't rocking the film world after its premiere, so maybe this is a Herzog that doesn't play at The Zog), "Mr. Holmes" and "The Club".  MTFB/FAC friend Christopher Schiller opined last weekend that "45 Years" might make the T-ride lineup.  Actually, almost any one of the nine films on IndieWire's list could pop up over Labor Day weekend.  Here's the post:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/berlin-2015-the-9-films-indiewire-cant-wait-to-see-20150205

Furious Cinema has posted an interesting piece on the influences that Quentin Tarantino is likely playing with as he films "The Hateful Eight" just outside Telluride.  It's fun.  Take a look:

http://www.furiouscinema.com/2015/01/hateful-eight-primer/

Finally, Sir Ian McKellen tweeted the first poster for the above-mentioned Berlin film and possible Telluride choice "Mr. Holmes":

More on Thursday...Have a great week...