Ten Bets #5/More News of "The Revenant" from THR/"Miles Ahead" Will Be at the End/"Son of Saul" and "Freeheld" Have Trailers

Hello to All on a Friday!



TEN BETS #5

For the fifth time this summer and the last time prior to the beginning of announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival on Tuesday (and the likelihood that their announcement gives solid clues about what could be playing Telluride), here are your latest, best "Ten Bets' for TFF #42 starting with a refresher of the "Ten Bets" from last week:

10) "The Club"

9) "Truth"

8) "Queen of the Desert"

7) "Suffragette"

6) "Youth"

5) "45 Years"

4) "I Saw the Light"

3) "Carol"

2) "Dheepan"

1) "Son of Saul"

Now, taking into consideration the Jeff Wells piece from last week as well as this week's Guardian piece and the comment traffic here on MTFB and this week's review of "The Usual Suspects" here's the latest incarnation of my "Ten Bets" list:

10) "Black Mass"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "He Named Me Malala"
7) "The Club"
6) "45 Years"
5) "Carol"
4) "Truth"
3) "I Saw the Light"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"


COUSINS ON "BELFAST" AND OTHER TOPICS

Mark Cousins and Helena Bereen of "I Am Belfast"

Earlier this week, as a part of the first wave of "The Usual Suspects" I wrote about director Mark Cousins and his latest documentary "I Am Belfast".  Coincidentally, Britains' Fred: The Festival Insider posted a podcast interview with the film maker about that film and his "Hibrow Trilogy" that has just played as a part of the Karlovy Vary Film Festival.  Check the 11+ minute podcast here:

http://www.fred.fm/uk/mark-cousins-i-am-belfast-the-mark-cousins-hibrow-trilogy-kviff2015/


MORE NEWS OF "THE REVENANT" FROM THR

Following the very insightful Grantland piece about the making and finishing of Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" comes another, separate long piece from Kim Masters of The Hollywood Reporter:


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-leonardo-dicaprios-revenant-shoot-810290

Still (sigh), this reminder that the film won't be ready in time for a Labor Day screening.


"MILES AHEAD" WILL BE AT THE END



Meaning that we found out Wednesday that Don Cheadle's Miles Davis biopic/passion project will close the New York Film Festival and they are labeling it a world premiere.  That designation, assuming that everyone is following the protocol from last year, means that the film is definitely off the Telluride radar.

In reality, I haven't had it on my radar in any significant fashion as it is still looking for U.S> distribution.

The film would have earned a mention on Monday's post when I will be addressing this year's version of "The Unified Clooney Theory" ahead of Tuesday's first announcement of films from the Toronto International Film Festival.

New York has already also announced that it will open with Robert Zemeckis' "The Walk".

Here's a bit of coverage on the NYFF announcement from Wednesday:

http://www.filmlinc.com/daily/entry/don-cheadles-miles-ahead-to-make-its-world-premiere-on-the-closing-night-of

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/07/22/don-cheadles-miles-ahead-selected-as-the-closing-film-for-new-york-film-festival/



"SON OF SAUL" AND "FREEHELD"  HAVE TRAILERS

Yesterday, we saw the release of an international trailer for Cannes sensation "Son of Saul".  I have that film sitting at the #2 spot on today's latest "Ten Bets" list.  We also saw the release of this first trailer for the Julianne Moore social drama "Freeheld".  Here they are via YouTube:

"Freeheld"

Here are three stories to accompany the "Freeheld" trailer:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-julianne-moore-and-ellen-page-will-break-your-heart-in-romantic-freeheld-trailer-20150722

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-ellen-page-and-julianne-moore-fight-for-gay-rights-in-first-trailer-for-freeheld-20150722

http://www.buzzfeed.com/kateaurthur/freeheld-trailer-julianne-moore-ellen-page#.jmkQpXnbMO

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/watch-freeheld-trailer-starring-ellen-page-and-julianne-moore/

"Son of Saul"

And a couple of stories that came with the "Son of Saul" trailer release:


http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/first-trailer-for-cannes-winner-and-oscar-contender-son-of-saul/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-operatic-first-international-trailer-for-cannes-winner-son-of-saul-20150723


LATEBREAKING

An interesting tidbit from the Italian online edition of Vanity Fair that claims that Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight", the drama concerning the revelation of  wrong doing and cover up in the Boston Archdiocese of the Catholic Church, will play as a part of the Venice Film Fest.  If accurate, that would be a bit of a surprise as it has been heavily rumored as a likely opener for Toronto.  A Venice play also opens the door a tiny bit to a Telluride play.

Google translate the story that is linked here:


http://www.vanityfair.it/show/cinema/15/07/19/mark-ruffalo-al-giffoni-film-festival-2015-intervista-e-foto

That's all for Friday.  Expect more Monday though special reports could pop up this weekend depending on the information that shakes out in the run up to Toronto's first announcement of films on Tuesday.

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"Ten Bets" #4/European Producers: Le French Part Deux/First Trailer for "The Revenant"/Trailer and Interview for "The Assassin"

It's finally Friday...where has the summer gone?

LATEST "TEN BETS" (#4 for 2015)

Here's this week's installment of my weekly guess as to what are the ten most likely films to play as a part of this year's Telluride Film Festival.

First, a look at last week's "Ten Bets":

10) "The Club"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "13 Minutes"
7) "Queen of the Desert"
6) "45 Years"
5) "I Saw the Light"
4) "Carol"
3) "Youth"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"

  

And now, "Ten Bets" #4

10) "The Club"

9) "Truth"

8) "Queen of the Desert"

7) "Suffragette"

6) "Youth"

5) "45 Years"

4) "I Saw the Light"

3) "Carol"

2) "Dheepan"

1) "Son of Saul"

SPC's "Truth" rejoins the "Ten Bets" replacing their "13 Minutes".  Also, "Mountains Amy Depart" drops a bit farther as its director is on the new "Program" jury for Toronto.  "The Measure of a Man" moves to "near Ten Bets" status.

EUROPEAN PRODUCERS: LE FRENCH PART DEUX

I'm continuing my look at European/French film production firms today with looks at Telluride legacies for France2 Cinema and France 3 as a way of looking for possible shows for The SHOW.

FRANCE2 CINEMA

Here are the films from France2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:

2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone

2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days One Night

TFF #42 possibilities:

"Youth"
"Mon Roi"
"Lolo"
 are the best bets from France2.

FRANCE 3

Here's the track record from France 3 at Telluride for the past several years:

2003: Dogville, The Tripletts of Belleville
2004:
2005: Lemming, Live and Become, Cache
2006: The Page Turner, Indigenes
2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Persepolis
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2009: The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: The Artist
2012: Superstar, Amour
2013: The Past

2014: Mr. Turner, The Price of Fame, The Gate

Their 2015 slate that might be Telluride possible includes:

"Diary of a Chambermaid"
"Disorder"
"Valley of Love"
 These films seem like the best bets from France 3.

FIRST TRAILER FOR "THE REVENANT"

"The Revenant" trailer via YouTube

Let me be clear, Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio is almost certainly NOT going to make it to Telluride.  The film is, the buzz says, NOT ready and WILL NOT be ready in time.

With a Dec. 25th release date, Inarritu has plenty of time before its theatrical release to get finished up...maybe.  Honestly, I wouldn't be all that surprised if this didn't get held until 2016 with a play at Cannes and then a 2016 Telluride play.

Nevertheless, we have a trailer that dropped this morning as you can see above and here are some of the related stories from other outlets that accompanied the trailer this morning:

http://www.slashfilm.com/the-revenant-trailer-leonardo-dicaprio/

http://www.thewrap.com/leonardo-di-caprio-does-not-fear-death-in-first-trailer-for-the-revenant-video/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-leonardo-dicaprio-tom-hardy-star-in-the-first-trailer-for-alejandro-inarritus-revenge-thriller-the-revenant-20150717

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/07/17/revenant-trailer-leonardo-dicaprio?hootPostID=f03a2f8aeed55cacf06a1c7f883a2b2b

http://thefilmstage.com/trailer/first-trailer-for-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-the-revenant-with-leonardo-dicaprio-and-tom-hardy/

TRAILER AND INTERVIEW FOR "THE ASSASSIN

Hou Hsiao-Hsien's "The Assassin" won the Best Directing prize at Cannes last May and that might be enough to see it make the Telluride 2015 program.  Last year's Cannes Best Director made the trip to T-ride-Bennett Miller and "Foxcatcher'.  Other Cannes Best Direction winners of recent years that have then played Telluride include: Gus Van Sant ("Elephant" '03), Michael Haneke ("Cache" '05) Alejandro Inarritu ("Babel '06) and Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" '07). Additionally, the critical response was very, very good.

The film is being distributed by Well Go Entertainment which has no real Telluride history but that might not matter.  The film also still has no U.S. release date but will have played half a dozen international festivals by the end of August.


I have linked an interview with Hsiao-Hsien from Mubi and the story from The Playlist that includes the trailer for the film:

https://mubi.com/notebook/posts/a-love-story-without-love-hou-hsiao-hsien-discusses-the-assassin/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-trailer-for-hou-hsiao-hsiens-cannes-award-winning-the-assassin-20150704


That's all for Friday.  Have a great weekend and look for a new post Monday.

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Distribution: Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate, Saban Films/Ten Bets #3/The Playlist's 50 Film Wish List for Fall Film Fests

It's Friday, Friday, Friday...

DISTRIBUTION: ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS/LIONSGATE/SABAN FILMS

On this Friday I continue my extensive look at film distributors with pasttrack records at the Telluride Film Festival to suss out clues about what films might play at this year's 42nd edition of the fest. Today I'm looking at the inter-related companies of Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate and Saban Films.


Taking each as an individual entity, here are their recent Telluride histories, such as they are:

Roadside Attractions:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy


Lionsgate

2013: All is Lost

Saban:

2014: The Homesman



As you can see, Roadside has steadily increased its presence in the five year run since it first showed up at The SHOW in 2010.  Lionsgate and Saban have been peripherally involved on a couple of projects in that time.  So, what do these firms have in their collective quiver that might whet the appetite of T-ride programmers?

From Roadside: "A Hologram for the King", "Miss You Already", "The Sea of Trees", "Stonewall",

From Lionsgate: "A Hologram for the King", "Freeheld", "Miss You Already", "Sicario" "The Sea of Trees", "Genius"

Saban Films doesn't appear to have any film that looks Telluride-y, at least according to their IMDb listing.

It seems to me that Lionsgate actually has the strongest hand in as far as possible Telluride programming is concerned.  Probably the safest "bet" is Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario".  After that, it's all relatively doubtful for the remainder of the Roadside/Lionsgate/Saban field and even "Sicario" is iffy.

Chances:

"Sicario" 50%
"Freeheld" 40%
"A Hologram for the King" 35%
"Genius" 30%
"Miss You Already" 25%
"The Sea of Trees" 25%

Roadside, after a strong run last year, may be on the outside looking in.




TEN BETS #3

Last week's "Ten Bets" were:

10) "Queen of the Desert"
9) "Mountains May Depart"
8) "Suffragette"
7)  "13 Minutes"
6) "I Saw the Light"
5) "Youth"
4) "45 Years"
3) "Carol"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"

This week's updated "Ten Bets" for TFF #42:

10) "The Club"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "13 Minutes"
7) "Queen of the Desert"
6) "45 Years"
5) "I Saw the Light"
4) "Carol"
3) "Youth"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"

Pablo Larrain's "The Club" bumps "Mountains May Depart"...but it's close.


THE PLAYLIST'S 50 FILM WISH LIST FOR THE FALL FILM FESTS

The Playlist was up yesterday with their annual "wish list" of films for the upcoming fall film fest.  The yearly "wish/prediction" post has come to be a staple for parsing here at MTFB...

So, here's what they "wish/predict" as it pertains to what films they feel might make the lineup for Telluride:

The first film referenced for Telluride is the Bradley Cooper starring, Weinstein Company distributed "Adam Jones".  The Playlist says Telluride is a "possibility".

Next is Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" starring Johnny Depp as mob murderer Whitey Bulger.  "Black Mass" is from Warners.  You may recall that I think Warners will have a film or two at Telluride this year's list.  The Playlist suggests that a "sneak preview" is "very possible".

The next Telluride mention is for Guillermo Del Toro's "Crimson Peak".  Read my earlier posts that suggest that Del Toro could follow the footsteps of his "three amigos hermanos" Alejandro Inarritu and Alfonso Cuaron.

Their next T-ride mention surprised me a bit as they suggest that Tom Hooper's "The Danish Girl" starring last year's Oscar Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne could play Telluride as Hooper could follow the path that his "The King's Speech" did to Oscar glory with a Telluride appearance in 2010.

"I Saw the Light" from director Marc Abraham ("Flash of Genius" T-ride 2008) is called a "maybe" for TFF #42.  It's a biopic about country music legend Hank Williams starring Tom Hiddleston and Elizabeth Olsen.  I think this film is a real Telluride possibility.

The next film that The Playlist gives a "maybe" is Derek Cianfrance's "The Light Between the Oceans" with Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander.  It's distribution is still up for grabs for the U.S.

Kenneth Lonergan's "Manchester-by-the -Sea" is suggested as a Telluride possible.  The film stars Michelle Williams and Kyle Chandler and is also looking for U.S> distribution.

Joe Nichols' "Midnight Special" starring Michael Shannon is termed a "good bet" and is another of the four Warners films that could make the trip to the San Juans.

The Playlist actually says that Jodie Foster's "Money Monster" starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts could make the Telluride program.  That would be cool.  Sony Pictures/TriStar are distributing.  (See my upcoming 2015 edition of "The Unified Clooney Theory" in a week or so).

David Gordon Green's "Our Brand is Crisis" is the third Warners film that the article says could make it to Telluride.  The film stars Sandra Bullock and is produce, in part, by Clooney (see "UCT" note above).

Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette" is said to be "expect(ed)" for Telluride after its announcement as a "European" premiere to open the London Film Fest.  The film stars Carey Mulligan and is distributed in the U.S. by Focus Features.

Richard Linklater's follow up to his critical darling "Boyhood" and the "spiritual sequel" to his classic "Dazed and Confused",
"That's What I'm Talking About" is called "very likely" for Telluride or Toronto or New York.

The last film that The Playlist lists Telluride as a possibility is "Truth" from director James Vanderbilt.  The post says that the film is "very likely" as it's from  Sony Pictures Classics.  The film stars Robert Redford as newsman Dan Rather and tells the story of his fall from grace at CBS News.

That's 13 of the 50 films listed in the post mentioning Telluride.

There are 37 other films (plus a bonus set at the end of the article) that The Playlist does not mention Telluride as a possibility.  Of those, I actually think that some DO have a shot.  For example:

Thomas Vintenberg's "The Commune"
Jean-Marc Vallee's "Demolition"
Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight"
Ron Howard's "In the Heart of the Sea"
Stephen Frears' "The Program"
Billy Ray's "Secret in Their Eyes"
Thomas McCarthy's "Spotlight"
Danny Boyles' "Steve Jobs"
Jay Roach's "Trumbo"
Justin Chadwick's "Tulip Fever"

are among The Playlist's 50 that they don't peg for a Telluride slot but that I think could play.

The only "Honorable Mentions" that they include that I feel have some shot at making Telluride is "Freeheld"

A lot to digest...

The complete post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/50-movies-on-our-fall-film-festival-wishlist-20150709

That's all for Friday.  Have a great weekend!  More on Monday...


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Distribution: The Weinstein Company/Fassbender Takes on The Dude/First International Trailer for "The Club"

It's Wednesday people...getting marginally closer to Labor Day weekend.


We continue our look at film distributors with Telluride track records...



DISTRIBUTION: FREQUENT DISTRIBS AT TELLURIDE: THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY

Tracking the Weinsteins as distributors at Telluride for the past decade shows us that they've been a part of The SHOW for a good long while.  Here's their Telluride slate as Miramax or The Weinstein Company or Radius-TWC since 2006:


2006: Venus
2007: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, My Enemy's Enemy, I'm Not There
2008: Happy-Go-Lucky
2009: The Road
2010: The King's Speech
2011: The Artist, Butter
2012: The Sapphires  (also was represented during the Marion Cotillard tribute by James Gray and 5 min. of The Immigrant)
2013: The Unknown Known, Salinger, Tracks
2014: The Imitation Game", "Escobar: Paradise Lost"

15 films in nine years.  That's an average of 1.7 films per year with at least one film every year of the nine.  Also, they had a great back-to-back Telluride run in 2010 and 2011 with ultimate Oscar Best Picture winners "The King's Speech" and "The Artist" playing in Telluride.  Last year's "The Imitation Game" was nominated for eight Academy Awards and won for Graham Moore's adapted screenplay.

So, what might we see from TWC in eight weeks time?

They have Todd Haynes "Carol" which wowed at Cannes as well as Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" which also played in competition at Cannes and received excellent notices for stars Marion Cotillard and Michael Fassbender.  Additionally, Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight", "John Wells' "Adam Jones".

Radius-TWC doesn't currently list any project on IMDb that would be Telluride ready.

So where does that leave us?

I think "Carol" is a pretty solid guess for Telluride.  "Macbeth" is also a real possibility.  Everything is else is less so.  "Hateful" is not likely to be ready.  "Adam Jones" doesn't seem, to me anyway, to have the gravitas for T-ride.

Chances with current "Ten Bets" status listed in parenthesis where applicable:

"Carol" 75% (#3)
"Macbeth" 55%
"The Hateful Eight" 25%
"Adam Jones" 25%

Tomorrow a look at Sundance Selects/IFC FIlms.


FASSBENDER TAKES ON THE DUDE

For a while now, Telluride favorite Jason Reitman has staged live reads of various films.  He's mostly done it in L.A. but has occasionally ventured to other places.  In the past few days we have learned that he will stage a live read of the Coen Brothers' "The Big Lebowski" in Montreal for a comedy festival there on July 24th.

And we know now who will be reading "the Dude", none other than Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender.  Patton Oswalt has also been announced as Walter Sobchak, the John Goodman role with other roles/actors to be announced.

Also, we learned via The Playlist (story below) that Fassbender was up for and auditioned for the title role in the Coen's 2013 Telluride-selected "Inside Llewyn Davis".  That would have been interesting, though, as bog a fan as I am of Fassbender's work, and I am a huge fan, I can't imagine the role in any other hands but those of Oscar Isaac.


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-fassbender-will-play-the-dude-in-jason-reitmans-live-read-of-the-big-lebowski-20150707

FIRST INTERNATIONAL TRAILER FOR "THE CLUB"

Pablo Larrain's "The Club" won the Silver Bear at Berlin in February and that combined with Larrain's play at Telluride in 2012 with "No" (he was also a producer for 2013's "Gloria") makes me think we should consider it as a potential lineup choice for TFF #42.

Additionally, U.S. distribution is in the hands of Music Box Films which has a small but notable Telluride resume including Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film "Ida" and "Fifi Howls from Happiness" in 2013 and "The Story of Film" in 2011.

"The Club" deals with secrets in the Catholic Church in South America.

The Playlist covered the release of the film's international trailer yesterday and the story and the trailer are here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-international-trailer-for-pablo-larrains-berlin-film-festival-award-winning-the-club-20150707


That's all for today...more on Thursday...

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Cannes and Oscar Analysis/Cannes and the Critical Response: Final/"Dheepan": View of a Palme d'Or Winner/"The Club" Could Meet in Telluride/"Black Mass Trailer #2

CANNES AND OSCAR ANALYSIS (and a word or two about Telluride)

I have posted links to three different film sites with post-Cannes Oscar analysis: Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood, Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Peter Knegt/Indie Wire.  I have also put together a list from each of the three of their anticipated Oscar candidates that I think have some shot at playing at Telluride:

Anne: "Carol", "Macbeth", "Tulip Fever", "Youth", "Son of Saul", "Dheepan", "The Assassin" and "Amy"

Sahsa: Not Cannes-centric...but...her current Top Ten" includes "The Revenant", "Steve Jobs", "Trumbo", and "Carol".


Peter: "Carol", "45 Years", "Son of Saul", "Youth", "Demolition", "Genius", "Trumbo", "The Revenant", "Steve Jobs" and "Suffragette".

Check out their complete analysis with these links (And a more than casual mention from Anne and Sasha about TFF):


http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/cannes-awards-contenders-from-the-weinstein-slate-to-son-of-saul-20150525

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/05/the-state-of-the-race-on-the-hunt-for-important-men-doing-important-things/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/2016-oscar-predictions-best-picture-20150312


CANNES AND THE CRITICAL RESPONSE-FINAL

Meanwhile, the critical response is in from Cannes and despite winning the Palme d'Or, Jacques Audiard's "Dheepan" was not often near the top of the competition films.  I have linked the four international critics compilations with each groups collective top three from the main competition films:

http://www.todaslascriticas.com.ar/cannes

1) "The Assassin"
2) "Carol"
3) "Mountains May Depart"

http://cannes-rurban.rhcloud.com/2015

1) "The Assassin"
2) "Carol"
3) Mountains May Depart"

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/cannes-screens-final-jury-grid-topped-by-carol-the-assassin/5088615.article

1) "The Assassin" and "Carol" (tie)
2) "Son of Saul" and "Mountains May Depart" (tie)
3) "Mia Madre"

http://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2015-cannes-critics-panel-full-grid

1) "Carol"
2) "Mia Madre"
3) "Son of Saul"


"DHEEPAN" VIEW OF A PALME D'OR WINNER

Clip from Jacques Audiard's Palme d'Or winner "Dheepan"

Audiard's "Dheepan" was clearly a surprise winner for the Palme.  The film was rated #7 (of the 19 competition films) by the Ioncinema critics, #6 by Screen Daily, #7 by rurban's critics and #8 by Argentina's todaslascriticas.  They're respectable numbers but nowhere close to the critical adoration heaped on "The Assassin" and "Carol".

Nevertheless, the reception was good enough for me to believe that it's a very probable Telluride entrant.  

Here's the story that The Playlist posted to go along with the release of the above clip of the film:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-clip-from-jacques-audiards-cannes-drama-dheepan-has-a-secret-20150519


"THE CLUB" COULD MEET IN T-RIDE

Pablo Larrain was in Telluride in 2013 with the Gael Garcia Bernal starrer "No" in 2012.  Larrain's new film has just been picked up for U.S. distribution by Music Box Films.  Music Box had Oscar winner "Ida" and "Fifi Howls from Happiness" in 2013 and Mark Cousin's "The Story of Film: An Odyssey" in 2011 but was absent in 2014.

Still, I think that "The Club" has a 50/50 shot at making the Telluride playlist in September.  Variety has the story here:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/music-box-pablo-larrains-the-club-1201506162/



"BLACK MASS" TRAILER #2

New "Black Mass" Trailer via YouTube

We saw a new trailer spring up online for Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" this week. The film stars Johnny Depp as notorious gangster/murderer Whitey Bulger.  That's what you see above.  "Black Mass' is one of four Warners films that are in the mix for serious notice at the end of the year and also might make the trip to T-ride.  

I'm on record suggesting a likely Warners return to Telluride this year after having had a serious presence  in 2012 with "Argo" and 2013 with "Gravity" and "Prisoners".  The trick is trying to ferret out which of the four films that could make the trip will make the trip.

The "Warners Four" are: "Black Mass", "Midnight Special", "Our Brand is Crisis" and "In  the Heart of the Sea".

News about the new clip is included here from Awards Daily and Variety:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/05/johnny-depp-in-black-mass-new-teaser-trailer/


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/johnny-depp-black-mass-offical-trailer-parenting-advice-1201504214/



More on Monday when Michael's Telluride Film Blog goes full time.  Beginning Monday MTFB will post five times a week on Monday through Friday through the end of this year's TFF.

"Incendies". "Prisoners" and.../Larrain: From Berlin to Telluride?/Is a Ride in Panahi's "Taxi" in Your Futrure?

Good Thursday to All.

Today's installment looks at three directors who could have their next project land at Telluride beginning with Denis Villeneuve...




"INCENDIES", "PRISONERS" AND...

Villeneuve's "Sicario" is set for U.S. release on Sept. 18th which Ioncinema has speculated puts it in a window that is friendly to a Venice, Telluride, Toronto run.  "Sicario's" IMDb page is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/berlin-review-jafar-panahis-enjoyable-act-of-dissidence-taxi-20150207


Perhaps the bigger news this week, however, was the announcement that Villeneuve would be helming the anticipated "Blade Runner" sequel.  Check that news below.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/prisoners-enemy-director-denis-villeneuve-to-helm-blade-runner-sequel-harrison-ford-confirmed-to-return-20150226


LARRAIN FROM BERLIN TO TELLURIDE?


Pablo Larrain's "No" was a part of the program for Telluride's 40th anniversary five day blowout in 2013 and I won't be surprised if he's back this year with his latest film, "The Club".  The Playlist explores Larrain's thoughts about the project.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-pablo-larrain-on-catholicism-the-club-and-keeping-his-actors-in-the-dark-20150220


IS A RIDE IN PANAHI'S "TAXI" IN YOUR FUTURE?


Jafar Panahi's "Taxi" won Berlin's Golden Bear last month and there is s peculation that we could see it in the San Juans over Labor Day.  The Playlist took a look at the film recently and filed this:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/berlin-review-jafar-panahis-enjoyable-act-of-dissidence-taxi-20150207



That's it for now.  More on Monday...

And Down the Stretch They Come/The Film Awards Clearinghouse: Less than a Week to Go/Writers Guild Awards/Berlin Winners/Birdman, Wild and Imitation Game Pieces/ Cannes Serious Speculation

Good Monday World...


AND DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME

Well...we're less than a week from answering all the Oscar questions.  Some categories are locked up (Best Actress, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress).  Some categories are really thrilling: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplays.  Some are obscure: Shorts: Feature, Documentary, Animated. Nevertheless, by this time next week, I'll be posting the annual Oscar aftermath/analysis and we'll all find things about which to be pleased, puzzled and outraged.

Then it'll start up again.

Honestly, it's really already started again with the Berlin fest concluding (see report below) and Cannes peeking around the corner.  We've already had a slew of "most anticipated" film lists for 2015 to chew over.  Once Oscar 2015 is in the rear view, we'll have some peeps that'll begin the early speculation about Oscar 2016.  Also coming, and in earnest, speculation about what films make the Cannes lineup and with that my Telluride #42 analysis/speculation will get more serious as well.

It's been a truly intriguing season and fun too.  When Telluride #41 was over, my favorite film of the weekend was Inarritu's "Birdman".  My belief at the time was that Keaton was going to be really hard to beat for Best Actor and that Inarritu might be have a real shot at Best Director and Original Screenplay but that the film itself might just be outside of The Academy's Best Picture comfort zone.  Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" seemed like the most likely BP film from Telluride.

Now, at less than a week before the envelopes are open, it appears to be a two film dead heat between The Bird and The Boy (Richard Linklater's "Boyhood").  You'll see how tight it looks on the chart below.  After last year's down-to- the- wire battle between "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" I anticipated that we'd have a much less competitive race this year and for most of the season, it looked that way as almost every prognosticator thought "Boyhood" was the inevitable Best Picture winner. But with "Birdman's" strong Guild showing, the calculations have changed and it is, again, very, very close.

"Boyhood's" BAFTA wins last weekend seem to have turned the pundits away from a wholesale stampede to crown "Birdman" Best Picture and so, here we are.  It's a squeaker, it would seem, and The Academy's use of a preferential ballot will tell the tale.  Where do the votes go from the down ballot films once they're eliminated?  If this week's FAC is to be believed, "Whiplash" looks like the first film that'll drop off the ballot...what will its supporters have in that #2 spot?  Those votes will be re-apportioned to remaining films.

There is a threshold percentage that a film has to maintain in each round to stay in contention (I'm not certain what that is) but this process goes on until some film hits 50% plus one of the total #1 votes after a round of re-apportioning and that's your winner.

So, if all the "Whiplash" voters put "Birdman" at #2...the Bird gets much closer to flying.

A number of the real Oscar blogger types have run simulations.  I believe InContention and The Wrap have.  So, if you have an interest in a deeper look at the process, you might look at both of those blogs.  They're in my list of linked sights to the right of this column.

Personally, I still haven't caught "Boyhood".  It might really send me over the moon and I know I'll get there eventually (I actually nearly watched it Friday night but opted for "Nightcrawler" instead.  Was not disappointed.  A very good film and Jake Gyllenhaal gives what might be his best performance).  So, it doesn't make a lot of sense that I'm hoping for a "Birdman" win on Sunday night.  Maybe, with a "Boyhood" viewing, I might conclude that it really is the best film of the year.  But I doubt it.  I said in T-ride last Labor Day that I thought "Birdman" was a masterpiece and Inarritu's best film and I still think that's true.  Besides, I want the Telluride string to continue...

Last note and then it's onto the FAC for the eight major categories...

Right at this minute, I've got a warm feeling about The Bird's chances and I mean beyond Best Picture.  I have a feeling it might have a big night: Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  Maybe one other.  Of course, that feeling could just as easily pass by tonight and go through multiple permutations by Sunday night...

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE WITH LESS THAN A WEEK TO GO-THE BIG EIGHT

Here's the latest Oscar snapshot from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the eight most anticipated categories.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold.  Telluride has 18 nominations form these eight major categories.

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director again this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, as mentioned above...and perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

Other notes:

There's some talk that "Whiplash" could come out of the night with the most Oscar wins.  Best Supporting Actor is a lock and Editing looks fairly likely.  A win for Adapted Screenplay isn't out of the question and it has to be a serious contender for Sound Mixing.  That's four of the five it's nominated for and that might be the biggest haul of the night (last year that honor went to "Gravity").

There's another school of thought that all eight of the Best Picture nominated films might walk away with at least one trophy on Sunday night.  That would be really unusual but I can see it happening.

I still can't grasp how "Foxcatcher" missed a Best Picture nomination.  Noms for direction, screenplay, actor and supporting actor...but not Best Picture.  It doesn't make a lot of sense.  But, then it IS Oscar..."sense" don't figure into it...pardon the grammar.

COMING THURSDAY...ALL 24 OSCAR CATEGORIES RANKED FOR WINNERS IN THE ALMOST FINAL FAC!!!


WRITERS GUILD ANNOUNCES

The Writers Guild of America announced the winners of their awards for 2014 Saturday.  TFF #41 film "The Imitation Game" by Graham Moore won Best Adapted Screenplay.  Wes Anderson's "The Grand Budapest Hotel" won Best Original Screenplay.  The WGA isn't always the best predictor of the Oscar winner in those categories due its stringent eligibility rules.  For example, "Birdman" was ineligible for consideration making "Budapest's" win less definitive.  Writers Guild coverage is linked here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/wga-awards-winners-2015-screenplay-tv-drama-comedy-1201434302/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-winners-list-773595

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/wga-awards-what-happened-at-773614

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/02/14/grand-budapest-hotel-and-imitation-game-win-wga-awards?hootPostID=c9532e7a922c816cefc0e745703441e5


BERLIN HAS WINNERS

The Berlin Film Fest came to an end Saturday with the announcement of award winners.  The Golden Bear was won by guerrilla Iranian film maker Jafar Panahi's "Taxi".  The film maker whose work is banned in Iran and yet continues to make films and smuggle them out of the country was recognized for his docu-drama.  Pablo Larrain's "The Club" was winner of the Silver Bear while acting prizes went to Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay for Andrew Haigh's "45 Years".

Frankly, I think all three films mentioned above, in addition to Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" all have a real shot to make the trip to Telluride over Labor Day.

Linked below is some serious Berlin Awards coverage:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-golden-bear-winners-announced-1201434184/

http://www.indiewire.com/article/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-the-golden-bear-in-berlin-20150214

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/02/taxi-and-45-years-top-winners-at-berlinale/

http://www.thewrap.com/jafar-panahi-wins-berlin-film-fests-golden-bear-for-taxi/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/jafar-panahis-taxi-wins-golden-bear-at-2015-berlin-film-festival


BIRDMAN, WILD TAKES AND IMITATION GAME PIECES

As noted above, we're coming down the Oscar homestretch and I have linked some more of the late-in-the-game pieces for "Birdman", "Wild Tales"  and "The Imitation Game" here.

The first "Birdman" piece focuses on an extended clip from the film.  Variety has that here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/birdman-extended-scene-keaton-vs-the-critic-1201432945/

Meanwhile, Kristopher Tapley at InContention "digs a little deeper" into the film here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/exclusive-dig-a-little-deeper-into-birdman-with-the-oscars-on-the-horizon

The New York Times published this "Making of" piece about Damian Szifron's Oscar nominated "Wild Tales" which is wildly considered the only film with a shot to deny "Ida" the Foreign Language Oscar.  It's here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/15/movies/awardsseason/the-making-of-wild-tales-an-oscar-nominee.html



Finally, two pieces both focused on "The Imitation Game" helmer and Oscar nominated Morten Tyldum.  One from IndieWire and the other from Gold Derby:


http://www.indiewire.com/awardsspotlight/mortem-tyldum-explains-why-alan-turing-was-the-right-subject-for-his-first-english-language-film-20150206

http://goldderby.libsyn.com/oscar-nominee-morten-tyldum-on-imitation-game-alan-turing-sex-and-awards


CANNES SERIOUS SPECULATION

And as mentioned above as well, the serious speculation about what will unspool at Cannes is heating up and took the form of this post from Cineuropa this week.  It's interesting but is also such an enormous list as to be not all that illuminating.

Titles that grabbed my attention included:

Stephen  Frears' "Icon" (his Lance Armstrong film)...though it is currently and ambiguously set for an August release in the U.S. which would mean no Telluride.

Thomas Vinterberg's "The Commune".  The article also mentions Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd" but that already has a U.S. release set for May 1st.

Matteo Garrone's "The Tale of Tales".

Todd Haynes' "Carol" starring Cate Blanchett

Jacques Audiard's "Erran".  Sundance Selects has already locked up the U.S. distribution for the film which should keep it in the Telluride conversation.  Last year the company was represented at Telluride by Ethan Hawke's "Seymour: An Introduction" and The Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night.

Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario" He's been programmed Telluride recently with "Prisoners" and "Incendies".

Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  The Weinsteins ("The Imitation Game") are distributing and See Saw Films is the production company ("Shame", "Tracks").

Sean Penn's "The Last Face" starring Charlize Theron, Javier Bardem and Adele Exarchopolous.  Penn' last directing effort "Into the Wild" played Telluride in 2007.

Barbet Schroeder's "Amnesia".  Schroeder has had a long relationship with Telluride but hasn't been represented at the festival since 2007's "Terror's Advocate".

There are a lot more titles to mull.  Look here:

http://cineuropa.org/nw.aspx?t=newsdetail&l=en&did=286876



More coming on Thursday including the complete 24 category Film Awards Clearinghouse Nearly Final Oscar Predictions.

Berlin Adds Titles/Coens and Cannes/Winners Bracket/Much Ado About: Birdman, Imitation Game, Foxcatcher/First Look: The Revenant/Oscar and Festivals

BERLIN ADDS TITLES...MORE TELLURIDE INTRIGUE

The Berlin International Film Festival named their last set of films for competition earlier this week and there were a couple that caught my eye as potential films for the Telluride slate: Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine starring James Franco and Rachel McAdams and Pablo Larrain's "The Club".  Here's a selection of coverage of the Berlin announcement:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-completes-competition-lineup-2-1201408621/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/wim-wenders-3d-every-thing-will-be-fine-starring-james-franco-will-bow-in-berlin-20150119

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/wim-wenders-3d-drama-every-thing-will-be-fine-new-films-by-pablo-larrain-oliver-hirschbiegel-complete-berlin-line-up-20150119


COENS AND CANNES
 

TFF #40 Tribute recipients "The Coen Brothers" have been named as co-Presidents of the Palme d'Or jury for the Cannes Film Fest.  The Coens presented "Inside Llewyn Davis" at T-ride in 2013.  The Coens have had a number of films play at Cannes and I have always thought their Cannes connection was likely a big reason tat "Llewyn" became their first film to screen at TFF.  Any chance that we might see their "Hail, Caesar!" might make a Telluride play?  At this point, the Feb. 2016 release date would seem to make that unlikely.  I have linked a few of the stories about their Cannes selection here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/coen-brothers-named-jury-presidents-of-68th-cannes-film-festival-1201409394/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-coen-brothers-will-head-up-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-jury

http://deadline.com/2015/01/joel-and-ethan-coen-cannes-festival-jury-chairmen-1201353692/


WINNERS BRACKET

Now that the Oscar nominations are out, a good number of the Oscar experts are weighing in as to their thoughts about which films will actually carry off the trophies on Feb. 22.  Check those below:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/the-state-of-the-race-the-nominations-are-in-who-is-winning-what/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/now-that-we-know-the-nominees-whos-going-to-win-the-oscar-for-best-picture-20150116

https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/556895977052065793/photo/1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/oscars-1202015

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/01/gurus-o-gold-a-week-after-nominations-any-changes/?


MUCH ADO ABOUT...

BIRDMAN COLLECTION

"Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" material for Inarritu's "Birdman":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-at-telluride-exclusive-video-20140901

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-23-minute-talk-with-birdman-stars-michael-keaton-ed-norton-20150108

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/making-birdman-alejandro-g-inarritu-761407

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-the-films-bad-original-ending-critics-true-detective-more-20150108

http://deadline.com/2015/01/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-birdman-director-interview-michael-keaton-1201341925/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9gL7qlMiz4

http://thecreatorsproject.vice.com/blog/birdman-backstage-is-a-virtual-tour-inside-the-soaring-oscar-nominee


IMITATION COLLECTION

Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" features for "The Imitation Game":


http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-en-morten-tyldum-20150101-story.html


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cracking-code-how-two-work-745734


http://www.indiewire.com/article/keira-knightley-on-faking-her-way-through-the-imitation-game-and-getting-loose-for-laggies-20150120




FOXCATCHER: THE FIRST FILM

Here's an interesting piece of video.  This is the Jon DuPont promotional film...ther eal one...that is referenced in "Foxcatcher":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4WOqUkJmFQ&feature=youtu.be


FIRST LOOK: THE REVENANT

Entertainment Weekly has the first photos from Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film, set for a December release, would be a prime Telluride possibility if it's done in time for Labor Day...but that's a BIG IF...


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-in-birdman-directors-the-revenant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-gets-grimy-in-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-the-revenant-20150121


OSCAR AND FESTIVALS

Indiewire looks at which film festivals acted as the premiere host/site for which Oscar nominated films:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-2015-oscar-race-which-film-festivals-came-out-on-top-20150120


More on Monday...Have a great weekend!