Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
The Toronto International Film Festival announced another set of films this morning for their Sept.10-20 soiree. That announcement contains clues about what could play a week earlier at Telluride. To wit:
Canadian Premiere status for Jafhar Panahi's "Taxi" which premiered at Berlin, makes it seem likely to show up at Telluride. (UPDATE; "TAXI HAD ITS N. AMER. PREEM IN APRIL IN MEXICO...so probably NOT playing Telluride)
International Premiere status for documentaries "He Named Me Malala" and "Amazing Grace" also seem to point to a Telluride play before landing at Telluride.
Other docs listed as Canadian Premieres that didn't play at Sundance and so could well be headed to Telluride include:
"A Young Patriot"
"Heart of a Dog"
"Hitchcock/Truffaut"
"Sherpa"
"Winter on Fire"
I'm hedging my best here as documentaries are notoriously fickle to nail down in terms of their actual dates of presentation.
That said, the "Hitchcock/Truffaut" presentation could be phenomenal.
Films listed in the TIFF Masters section that appear to be off the table for Telluride owing to their status as World or North American Premieres include, in part:
"Our Little Sister"
"Every Thing Will Be Fine"
"Cemetery of Splendor"
"The Assassin"
Films still unannounced for any fall film fest we're aware of:
"Suffragette"
"I Saw the Light"
"Our Brand is Crisis"
"In the Heart of the Sea"
"By the Sea"
"Truth"
"Steve Jobs"
"Manchester-by-the-Sea"
"Secret in Their Eyes"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Queen of the Desert"
"Salt and Fire"
"45 Years"
"13 Minutes"
"Carol"
"Macbeth"
"Adam Jones/Burnt"
"Snowden"
"Joy"
"The Light Between Oceans"
"Crimson Peak"
"The 33"
"The Last Face"
More to come in tomorrow's regularly scheduled MTFB post...
Here's this week's installment of my weekly guess as to what are the ten most likely films to play as a part of this year's Telluride Film Festival.
First, a look at last week's "Ten Bets":
10) "The Club"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "13 Minutes"
7) "Queen of the Desert"
6) "45 Years"
5) "I Saw the Light"
4) "Carol"
3) "Youth"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"
And now, "Ten Bets" #4
10) "The Club"
9) "Truth"
8) "Queen of the Desert"
7) "Suffragette"
6) "Youth"
5) "45 Years"
4) "I Saw the Light"
3) "Carol"
2) "Dheepan"
1) "Son of Saul"
SPC's "Truth" rejoins the "Ten Bets" replacing their "13 Minutes". Also, "Mountains Amy Depart" drops a bit farther as its director is on the new "Program" jury for Toronto. "The Measure of a Man" moves to "near Ten Bets" status.
EUROPEAN PRODUCERS: LE FRENCH PART DEUX
I'm continuing my look at European/French film production firms today with looks at Telluride legacies for France2 Cinema and France 3 as a way of looking for possible shows for The SHOW.
FRANCE2 CINEMA
Here are the films from France2 Cinema that have played Telluride in recent years:
2006: Indigenes
2009: A Prophet, Coco Before Chanel
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2011: The Kid with a Bike
2012: Rust and Bone
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days One Night
TFF #42 possibilities:
"Youth"
"Mon Roi"
"Lolo"
are the best bets from France2.
FRANCE 3
Here's the track record from France 3 at Telluride for the past several years:
2003: Dogville, The Tripletts of Belleville
2004:
2005: Lemming, Live and Become, Cache
2006: The Page Turner, Indigenes
2007: The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Persepolis
2008: I've Loved You So Long
2009: The White Ribbon
2010: The Illusionist, The Princess of Montpensier, Of Gods and Men
2011: The Artist
2012: Superstar, Amour
2013: The Past
2014: Mr. Turner, The Price of Fame, The Gate
Their 2015 slate that might be Telluride possible includes:
"Diary of a Chambermaid"
"Disorder"
"Valley of Love"
These films seem like the best bets from France 3.
FIRST TRAILER FOR "THE REVENANT"
"The Revenant" trailer via YouTube
Let me be clear, Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio is almost certainly NOT going to make it to Telluride. The film is, the buzz says, NOT ready and WILL NOT be ready in time.
With a Dec. 25th release date, Inarritu has plenty of time before its theatrical release to get finished up...maybe. Honestly, I wouldn't be all that surprised if this didn't get held until 2016 with a play at Cannes and then a 2016 Telluride play.
Nevertheless, we have a trailer that dropped this morning as you can see above and here are some of the related stories from other outlets that accompanied the trailer this morning:
Hou Hsiao-Hsien's "The Assassin" won the Best Directing prize at Cannes last May and that might be enough to see it make the Telluride 2015 program. Last year's Cannes Best Director made the trip to T-ride-Bennett Miller and "Foxcatcher'. Other Cannes Best Direction winners of recent years that have then played Telluride include: Gus Van Sant ("Elephant" '03), Michael Haneke ("Cache" '05) Alejandro Inarritu ("Babel '06) and Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" '07). Additionally, the critical response was very, very good.
The film is being distributed by Well Go Entertainment which has no real Telluride history but that might not matter. The film also still has no U.S. release date but will have played half a dozen international festivals by the end of August.
I have linked an interview with Hsiao-Hsien from Mubi and the story from The Playlist that includes the trailer for the film:
Good Monday Everyone...I hope you had an excellent Independence Day weekend.
We start our series today that looks at Film distribution companies that have a history with Telluride and what their current lineup might tell us about this year's possible lineup.
DISTRIBUTION: FREQUENT DISTRIBS AT TELLURIDE: SONY PICTURES CLASSIC (SPC)
SPC is the "Big Dog" of Indie distributors at Telluride. No other company has as long and consistent track record of having film's selected for The SHOW program as Sony Pictures Classics.
Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 12 years :
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters (5)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
SPC averages 5.3 films per year at Telluride with seven last year, the most they've had at any TFF in the last dozen years.
This year's possible crop from Sony Pictures Classics (according to today's IMDb listing) includes:
"I Saw the Light"
"Son of Saul"
"Our Little Sister"
"13 Minutes" ("Elser")
"Truth"
Other SPC films that would seem to be disqualified: "Grandma", "Dark Horse" and "The Diary of a Teenage Girl" as they played at Sundance.
Of the six left as SPC possibles, we 'd be wise to remember that SPC usually doesn't get every film available into the fest. Last year's "Coming Home" is a good example. So, it's unlikely that all six of these films play.
Four of the five have already appeared on at least one of my two "Ten Bets" lists this last couple of weeks. A really good case can be made for five of them.
"Truth" looks like a fairly substantial play for Awards recognition as does "I Saw the Light" which also has Marc Abraham directing who previously brought "Flash of Genius" to Telluride in 2008.
"13 Minutes"made some noise at Berlin.
"Our Little Sister" and "Son of Saul" both played at Cannes and "Son if Saul" particularly well winning the Grand Prix prize.
Chances (with current "Ten Bets" postions in parenthesis where applicable) :
"Son of Saul" 90% (#2)
"I Saw the Light" 80% (#6)
"13 Minutes" 75% (#7)
"Truth" 65%
"Our Little Sister" 50%
"Testament of Youth" 10%
Tomorrow's distributor to look at: Fox Searchlight.
TRAILER FOR "THE ASSASSIN"
"The Assassin" teaser/trailer via YouTube
We saw our first trailer released this weekend for Cannes Best Director winner Hou Hsaio-Hsein's "The Assassin". Its reception at Cannes makes the film one that we need to keep in mind as a possible choice for Telluride programming. One note, however, the film's U.S. distribution is with Well Go Entertainment, for which I can find only the barest of connections to T-ride...they distributed the video for TFF 2010 selection "Oka! Amerikee".
Both The Playlist and FirstShowing posted coverage of the trailer release this weekend:
First, we found out that Tarantino will be bringing a presentation about the film to Comic Con which starts in San Diego next week. "The Hateful Eight" panel is scheduled for July 11th. Here's coverage from Variety, The Wrap and Thompson on Hollywood:
Additionally, we tumbled across an Entertainment Weekly story in which Tarantino calls the film the "funniest snow western ever made" which seems to me to be a pretty limited category. Here's The Entertainment Weekly story:
The bottom line here is that the Comic Con presentation of footage means that QT is making progress on the edit of the film and with just under two months still left before Telluride, you have to wonder if he might just make it under the wire for Labor Day despite the fact that the film isn't getting a release until Dec. 25.
We'll see.
That's all for Monday...tune in again tomorrow...
Like/Follow Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:
CANNES AND OSCAR ANALYSIS (and a word or two about Telluride)
I have posted links to three different film sites with post-Cannes Oscar analysis: Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood, Sasha Stone/Awards Daily and Peter Knegt/Indie Wire. I have also put together a list from each of the three of their anticipated Oscar candidates that I think have some shot at playing at Telluride:
Anne: "Carol", "Macbeth", "Tulip Fever", "Youth", "Son of Saul", "Dheepan", "The Assassin" and "Amy"
Sahsa: Not Cannes-centric...but...her current Top Ten" includes "The Revenant", "Steve Jobs", "Trumbo", and "Carol".
Peter: "Carol", "45 Years", "Son of Saul", "Youth", "Demolition", "Genius", "Trumbo", "The Revenant", "Steve Jobs" and "Suffragette".
Check out their complete analysis with these links (And a more than casual mention from Anne and Sasha about TFF):
Meanwhile, the critical response is in from Cannes and despite winning the Palme d'Or, Jacques Audiard's "Dheepan" was not often near the top of the competition films. I have linked the four international critics compilations with each groups collective top three from the main competition films:
Clip from Jacques Audiard's Palme d'Or winner "Dheepan"
Audiard's "Dheepan" was clearly a surprise winner for the Palme. The film was rated #7 (of the 19 competition films) by the Ioncinema critics, #6 by Screen Daily, #7 by rurban's critics and #8 by Argentina's todaslascriticas. They're respectable numbers but nowhere close to the critical adoration heaped on "The Assassin" and "Carol".
Nevertheless, the reception was good enough for me to believe that it's a very probable Telluride entrant.
Here's the story that The Playlist posted to go along with the release of the above clip of the film:
Pablo Larrain was in Telluride in 2013 with the Gael Garcia Bernal starrer "No" in 2012. Larrain's new film has just been picked up for U.S. distribution by Music Box Films. Music Box had Oscar winner "Ida" and "Fifi Howls from Happiness" in 2013 and Mark Cousin's "The Story of Film: An Odyssey" in 2011 but was absent in 2014.
Still, I think that "The Club" has a 50/50 shot at making the Telluride playlist in September. Variety has the story here:
We saw a new trailer spring up online for Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" this week. The film stars Johnny Depp as notorious gangster/murderer Whitey Bulger. That's what you see above. "Black Mass' is one of four Warners films that are in the mix for serious notice at the end of the year and also might make the trip to T-ride.
I'm on record suggesting a likely Warners return to Telluride this year after having had a serious presence in 2012 with "Argo" and 2013 with "Gravity" and "Prisoners". The trick is trying to ferret out which of the four films that could make the trip will make the trip.
The "Warners Four" are: "Black Mass", "Midnight Special", "Our Brand is Crisis" and "In the Heart of the Sea".
News about the new clip is included here from Awards Daily and Variety:
More on Monday when Michael's Telluride Film Blog goes full time. Beginning Monday MTFB will post five times a week on Monday through Friday through the end of this year's TFF.
The 68th Cannes Film Festival came to a conclusion on last night in France (yesterday afternoon here in the States) with a bit of a surprise as Jacques Audiard's immigration drama "Dheepan" won the Palme d'Or. The film is set for U.S. Distribution by Sundance Selects/IFC Films.
I have a strong feeling that it will likely make the Telluride program this year after its Palme win, reasonable critical reception and the face that Audiard's has been at Telluride twice in the last decade with "Un Prophet" and "Rust and Bone".
Other prizes from Cannes (and a comment or two along the way):
Grand Prix: "Son of Saul" ( I think this could be a very possible T-ride contender)
Jury Prize: "The Lobster"
Best Direction: Hou Hsaio-hsein- "The Assassin"
Actor: Vincent Lindon-"The Measure of a Man"
Actress: Emmanuelle Bercot-"Mon Roi" and Rooney Mara-"Carol"
Screenplay: Michel Franco-"Chronic"
From among these winners, I feel "Carol" and possibly "The Assassin" might be your best Telluride possibilities, in addition to "Son of Saul" and "Dheepan".
Other competition titles that are still on my Telluride radar include "The Tale of Tales", "Youth" and "Macbeth".
CLIPS FROM CANNES CLOSER "MAC BETH"
Clip from "Macbeth" via YouTube
Linked are couple of clips from Justin Kurzel's "Macbeth" which, despite being closed out of the awards at Cannes is still very much a film on my list of "could be at Telluride's".
We gave up on Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" for Telluride when it's July release date was announced. However, this tidbit might mean that there is a roadblock to that plan. The Conan Doyle estate has sued the film makers claiming copyright infringement. Will this delay the film's release? Probably not, but stay tuned for further developments. Details are below in this story linked from The Playlist:
