Four More Oscar Tech Categories and The FAC / Sasha and Kris are Saying... / "Spotlight" Wins NSFC

Good First Monday of 2016 Everyone...  back to the grind... real and imagined...


FOUR MORE OSCAR TECH CATEGORIES AND THE FAC

As we edge ever closer to Oscar nomination morning, the Film Awards Clearinghouse takes a look at the positioning of the films in the only categories that I haven't enumerated as yet: Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Black Mass
3) The Revenant

4) Mr. Holmes
5) The 100 Year Old Man...
6) Concussion
7) Legend


Comment:  The only possible Telluride connected nominee from the four categories that the blog examines today as "Black Mass" has a chance to be nominated here.


VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Star Wars; The Force Awakens
2) The Martian
3) Mad Max; Fury Road
4) The Walk
5) Jurassic World

6) Transformers: Age of Ultron
7) Ex Machina
8) The Revenant
9) Ant Man
10) Tomorrowland

Comment;  The top three films look solid for a nomination here.  After them, it's up for grabs for the last two spots.

SOUND MIXING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) The Martian
4) The Revenant
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Sicario
7) Spectre
8) Jurassic World
9) Straight Outta Compton
10) Creed


SOUND EDITING

1) Mad Max: Fury Road
2) The Martian
3) The Revanant
4) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5) The Hateful Eight

6) Jurassic World
7) Spectre
8) Inside Out
9) Sicario
10) In the Heart of the Sea

Comment:The top three in Mixing and the top four in Editing seem to be solid.  Oft times a musical film will nose its way into one or both of these categories, especially Mixing.  "Compton" and "Love and Mercy" might sneak in, but even that appears unlikely.


Oscar nomination announcement day is now just 10 days away and as I post the next three MTFB/FACs, I'll update the categories so that we'll have an up to date picture as we arrive at Nomination morning on Jan. 14.


I'll update  these categories on Thursday: Screenplays, Cinematography, Editing, Documentary and Foreign Language Film.



SASHA AND KRIS ARE SAYING...



Last Thursday I looked specifically at the latest Oscar predictions from The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar ace Scott Feinberg to see how Telluride films would pan out if he's 100% correct.  Today I'm posting the same process to Kristopher Tapley of Variety's InContention and Sasha Stone of Awards Daily.  Here are their latest picks for each T-ride film:

From Tapley:

"Spotlight" (7): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Keaton), Supporting Actress (McAdams), Original Screenplay, Editing and Score.

"Carol" (5) Best Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Costumes.

"Steve Jobs" (4) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score

"Room" (3) Best Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay

"Black Mass" (2) Best Actor, Makeup/Hair

Singles for:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary

T-ride total = 26 for TFF #42 (27 if you count the TFF #41 "Look of Silence")


From Stone:

"Carol" (8) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Score.

"Spotlight" (5) Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score

"Room" (4) Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay

"Steve Jobs" (3) Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay

Singles for:

"Beasts of No Nation" Supporting Actor
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
"He Named Me Malala" Best Documentary
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary (TFF #41)

T-ride total from Stone: 25 (with a 26th if you count TFF #41's "Look of Silence")

Here's the material I blogged about from Feinberg last Thursday:

 If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film

And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


If you combine all three of these Oscar pundits to look for the maximum Telluride bang for the buck you could see "Carol" with 10 nominations, "Spotlight" with seven (eight, if it gets three acting nominations), "Room" with five, "Steve Jobs" with four, "Black Mass" with two and TFF #41 with an additional six nominations for one offs for "Beasts", "Saul", "Viva", "45 Years", Anomalisa and "Malala" and an additional two nominations dating back to TFF #41 films.



"SPOTLIGHT" WINS NSFC

Tom McCarthy's "Spotlight" was named Best Picture of the year by the National Society of Film Critics yesterday.  Other Telluride-centric films that were winners or runners-up yesterday in the NSFC voting were:

Best Picture 1st RU: "Carol"
Best Director: Todd Haynes/ "Carol", 1st RU: Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
Best Actor 1st RU: Geza Rorhig/"Son of Saul", 2nd RU: Tom Courtenay/"45 Years"
Best Actress: Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
Best Supporting Actress; 2nd RU Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
Best Screenplay: "Spotlight", 1st RU: "Anomalisa"
Best Cinematography: "Carol"
Best Non-Fiction Film: 2nd RU "Seymour: An Introduction" (TFF #41)

Full coverage f the NSFC results are here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2016-full-list-1201670781/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/national-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20160103

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-society-of-film-critics-gives-best-picture-to-oscar-frontrunner-spotlight-20160103

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/national-society-film-critics-2016-851756


That's all for Monday.  More updated Oscar categories will be here on Thursday...


  Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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New Oscar Categories Get The FAC Treatment / Like I Said on Monday...Haneke / Oscar Matters: The Latest Fienberg Forecast

Good Thursday film fans...

Oscar nomination morning is a minuscule two weeks away...the anticipation mounts!

NEW OSCAR CATEGORIES GET THE FAC TREATMENT

As we get closer to the announcement of Oscar nominations, The FAC takes its first look at the animated feature race and a number of technical categories.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Inside Out
2) Anomalisa
3) Shaun the Sheep
4) The Good Dinosaur
5) The Peanuts Movie

6) Kahlil Gibron's The Prophet
7) Minions
8) When Marnie Was There
9) Boy and the World
10) Home

Comment:  "Inside Out" and "Anomalisa" are locks.  It'll be interesting to see if the category goes a to five nominees all of which will be honored to be nominated in a year where "Inside Out" has the Oscar in a death grip.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Danish Girl
2) Carol
3) Bridge of Spies
4) Mad Max: Fury Road
5) Star Wars: The Force Awakens

6) Cinderella
7) The Martian
8) Brooklyn
9) The Hateful Eight
10) The Revenant

Comment:  A very, very competitive category.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Hateful Eight
2) Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3) Carol
4) The Danish Girl
5) Bridge of Spies

6) Spotlight
7) Inside Out
8) Steve Jobs
9) Sicario
10) Mad Max: Fury Road

Comment: The films' scores listed in the 4-7 positions are probably in a real fight for the last two spots in the category.


BEST SONG

1) 'Til It Happens to You/The Hunting Ground
2) See You Again/Furious 7
3) Simple Song #3/Youth
4) Love Me Like You Do/50 Shades of Grey
5) Writing's on the Wall/Spectre

6) Earned It/50 Shades of Grey
7) So Long/Concussion
8) Flashlight/Pitch Perfect 2
9) Feels Like Summer/Shaun the Sheep
10) I'll See You in My Dreams/I'll See You in My Dreams (tie)
10) Cold One/Rikki and the Flash

Comment: Try on these phrases...Oscar nominees "50 Shades of Grey" and/or "Furious 7".  Looks like it could really happen.  Maybe twice for "50 Shades".


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Carol
2) The Danish Girl
3) Cinderella
4) Brooklyn
5) Mad Max: Fury Road

6) The Hateful Eight
7) The Revenant
8) The Crimson Peak
9) Suffragette
10) Trumbo

Comment: The top four spots seem relatively certain with a big scrum for the fifth nomination.

If The FAC is 100% accurate, Telluride films in these categories will earn fur nominations with another three possibilities.


LIKE I SAID ON MONDAY...HANEKE

Michael Haneke and Isabelle Huppert at Cannes for "Amour" in 2012 (photo from Sipa Press/Rex Shutterstock and The Guardian)

Last Monday's post included a segment entitled "Ten Films that Could Be Telluride Bound".  Included on that list was one film without a title and that was the percolating Michael Haneke project.  Now, almost like magic, within the last couple of days, comes details of the new film including a title: " Happy End".

Considering the timing, I would expect that the completed film would be a likely entrant for Cannes in 2017 and, consequently, TFF #44.  Here is coverage from The Guardian, Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/dec/30/michael-haneke-to-reunite-with-isabelle-huppert-for-calais-set-drama

http://thefilmstage.com/news/michael-haneke-reveals-next-film-happy-end-starring-isabelle-huppert-and-jean-louis-trintignant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/michael-haneke-reteams-with-amour-duo-isabelle-huppert-jean-louis-trintignant-for-refugee-film-happy-end-20151230



OSCAR MATTERS: LATEST FEINBERG FORECAST

The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg has just updated his latest Oscar predictions.  The nominations announcement is now just two weeks away.  You can look at Scott's whole list here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/academy-awards-122915/

If Feinberg is right, T-ride films are nominated as follows:

"Carol" (7): Best Film, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume, Cinematography and Score.
"Spotlight" (6):  Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score and Film Editing.
"Room" (4): Best Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Production Design
"Steve Jobs" (3): Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay.

All other films from Telluride would be single nominated films:

"45 Years" Best Actress
"Beasts of No Nation" Best Supporting Actor
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Feature
"Son of Saul" Best Foreign Language Film
"Viva" Best Foreign Language Film
 
And from TFF #41:

"The Look of Silence" Best Documentary
"99 Homes" Best Supporting Actor.


Telluride totals would be 27 nominations (with two of those from TFF 2014).


More to come on Monday...HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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End of the Year Looks: Son of Saul / 45 Years / Suffragette / Beasts of No Nation / Spotlight / 10 Films That Could be Telluride Bound

Good Monday everyone...

As we come to the close of 2105. I have included a number of posts/articles about TFF #42 films that continue to make their mark and be a part of the end of the year awards conversations:

SON OF SAUL

http://www.thewrap.com/son-of-saul-director-talks-revisiting-holocaust-hell-for-new-take-on-genre-exclusive-video/

http://puls.ly/RWc8zg#http://moviemezzanine.com/laszlo-nemes-and-geza-rohrig-on-son-of-saul/


45 YEARS

http://www.wsj.com/articles/45-years-marriage-under-the-ice-1449764341


SUFFRAGETTE

http://www.thewrap.com/carey-mulligan-on-getting-suffragette-right-we-didnt-want-it-to-feel-like-a-costume-drama-exclusive-video/


BEASTS OF NO NATION

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Yk6VP2rBe0&feature=youtu.be&a


SPOTLIGHT

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223


TEN FILMS THAT COULD BE FUTURE TELLURIDE-BOUND

I am constantly scouring the interwebs for films that are in development or announced that might end up being Telluride choices.  The details that catch my interest can be varied but include a heavy emphasis on directors and distributors.  With that in mind, here are ten films culled over the last six months or so that could be a part of Telluride's  lineup over the next two or three years.  (Of course, NONE of these could end up there as well).   In no particular order:

1) "Werk Ohne Autor" from Florian Henckel Von Donnersmarck:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-lives-of-others-director-florian-henckel-von-donnersmarck-to-helm-drama-werk-ohne-autor-20151215

2) "The Salesman" from Asghar Farhadi:

http://thefilmstage.com/news/details-emerge-on-asghar-farhadis-iran-set-drama-the-salesman-as-first-cast-members-are-set/

3) "Distant Vision" from Francis Ford Coppola:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/francis-ford-coppola-explains-his-847610

http://thefilmstage.com/news/francis-ford-coppola-reveals-title-of-and-new-plans-for-next-feature/

4) "Wonderstruck" from Todd Haynes:

http://www.thewrap.com/julianne-moore-todd-haynes-wonderstruck-amazon-studios/

http://edit.hollywoodreporter.com/news/julianne-moore-reteam-todd-haynes-840629

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/julianne-moore-re-teams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-20151116

http://thefilmstage.com/news/julianne-moore-reteams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-watch-30-minute-carol-talk-with-cate-blanchett/

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/julianne-moore-todd-haynes-wonderstruck-1201641627/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/julianne-moore-reteams-with-todd-haynes-for-wonderstruck-20151116


5) "Sunset" from Laszlo Nemes:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/son-of-saul-director-laszlo-nemes-to-helm-pre-wwi-thriller-sunset-20151130


6) The next Michael Haneke/ "Happy End" project (since there will be no "Flashmob"):

http://thefilmstage.com/news/isabelle-huppert-to-reteam-with-michael-haneke/


7) "Porno" from Danny Boyle:

http://www.movienewsguide.com/danny-boyle-returns-trainspotting-sequel-porno-original-cast-returning/91614

8) "The Sisters Brothers" from Jacques Audiard:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/john-c-reilly-to-star-in-a-prophet-director-jacques-audiards-english-language-western-the-sisters-brothers-20150824

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/palme-dor-winner-jacques-audiard-817151


9) "Neruda" from Pablo Larrain:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-gael-garcia-bernal-in-pablo-larrains-noir-ish-cat-and-mouse-drama-neruda-20150724


10) "Comancheria" from David Mackenzie:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/starred-up-director-david-mackenzie-now-shooting-comancheria-with-chris-pine-ben-foster-and-jeff-bridges-20150804


That'll do for Monday...come back on Thursday for the final MTFB for the year!

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Gurus of Gold and Others Updated Oscar Forecasts / Critical Take on 2015 Gets Deeper / Lots About "Spotlight"

Good Christmas Eve and Thursday morning...


GURUS OF GOLD AND OTHERS UPDATED OSCAR FORECASTS

Move City News has an updated chart this morning for six major categories.  TFF films lay out like this in their latest tally of Oscar experts:

Best Picture:

#1 "Spotlight"
#3 "Carol"
#8 "Room"
#12 "Steve Jobs"

Best Director

#2 Tom McCarthy/"Spotlight"
#4 Todd Haynes/"Carol"
#7 Lenny Abrahamson/"Room"


Best Actress:

#1 Brie Larson/"Room"
#3 Cate Blanchett/"Carol"
#5 Charlotte Rampling/"45 Years"
#6 Carey Mulligan/"Suffragette"

Best Actor:

#3 Michael Fassbender/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Johnny Depp/"Black Mass"


Best Supporting Actress:

#1 Rooney Mara/"Carol"
#3 Kate Winslet/"Steve Jobs"
#6 Rachel McAdams/"Spotlight"

Best Supporting Actor:

#3 Idris Elba/"Beasts of No Nation"
#4 Michael Keaton/"Spotlight"
#5 Mark Ruffalo/"Spotlight"
#7 Michael Shannon/"99 Homes" (TFF #41)
#8 Jacob Tremblay/"Room"


The Gurus indicate 14 Oscar nominations for Telluride films on these six categories with another seven possibles/trade-offs.

The complete Gurus can be found here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-you-better-vote-good-for-goodness-sake/

Meanwhile, The Five Star Flicks Blog has continued its project of gathering data from many Oscar prognostication sources and crunching those numbers for the Best Picture race in a different manner. Their cumulative chart has the following for BP:

#1 "Spotlight"
#4 "Room"
#6 "Carol"
#12 "Steve Jobs"
#16 "Beasts of No Nation"


That complete chart is here:

http://fivestarflicks.blogspot.com/2015/12/state-of-race-best-picture-as-of-122315.html


CRITICAL TAKE ON 2015

Metacritic continues to gather data from Critics' year end top ten lists (they're up over 160 lists so far) and here's where Telluride films rank (within their top twenty):

#2 "Carol"
#3 "Spotlight"
#8 "Son of Saul" (tie)
#8 "Anomalisa" (tie)
#10 "45 Years"
#14 "Room"
#16 "The Look of Silence" (TFF #41)


That's an incredibly impressive seven films on the cumulative top twenty from TFF.

The complete Metacritic list is here:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2015


LOTS ON "SPOTLIGHT"

Somewhat tenaciously and against the odds, "Spotlight" has continued to seem like a quiet Oscar front runner for many weeks now.  As such, it continues to be spotlighted, if you'll pardon the expression, in a number of outlets in a number of ways.  Here is a sampling of some of then latest including discussions from its producer, director, actors and musical director:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/how-open-road-ceo-tom-ortenberg-shepherded-spotlight-to-oscar-frontrunner-20151223

http://thefilmstage.com/news/morricone-talks-the-hateful-eight-thomas-mccarthy-analyzes-spotlight-45-years-tangerine-talks-and-more/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-director-tom-mccarthy-talks-researching-disturbing-church-scandal-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-michael-keaton-talks-actors-journalists-and-their-egos/

http://www.thewrap.com/how-mark-ruffalo-learned-to-play-an-excitable-journalist-in-spotlight-video/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-star-rachel-mcadams-talks-learning-to-listen-like-a-journalist-exclusive-video/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/23/interview-howard-shore-talks-composing-spotlight/


That's it for Thursday.  For all those that celebrate Christmas...I hope your tomorrow is fantastic. MTFB will return Monday with more...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


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Updated FAC for Oscars Four Major Categories / American Film Institute's Top Ten Films for 2015 / The Latest Gurus of Gold

Welcome to Thursday...

As promised, here is your update of four major Oscar categories:

THE UPDATED FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE/MAJOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Many of the professionals listed below will often write that precursors like the Golden Globes and SAG nominations as well as critical top tens don't really move the needle as far as Oscar voters go. And yet...as you look at these categories that are updated from their last post from about three weeks ago...the number crunching of their thinking tells a different story.

"Mad Max: Fury Road" and "Trumbo's" Bryan Cranston have jumped into serious contention precisely because of the announcement of year end accolades from the various precursors.  "Joy" has dropped like a stone after spending the past several months comfortably regarded as a serious contender in a number of categories.

"The Martian" continues to be regarded well but I have serious concerns that the main categories will accommodate it and "Mad Max".

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.



BEST PICTURE

1) Spotlight (1)
2) The Martian (3)
3) The Revenant (2)
4) Room (4)
5) Brooklyn (6)
6) Carol (10)
7) Mad Max: Fury Road (NR)
8) The Big Short (12)


9) Bridge of Spies (5)
10) Inside Out (9)
11) Steve Jobs (8)
12) The Hateful Eight (11)

Hot: Carol, Mad Max:Fury Road, The Big Short
Not: Bridge of Spies, Steve Jobs, Joy

Comment:  "Fury Road" is red hot and "Joy" is dead as can be as it dropped completely off the chart.  Not one of these experts thinks it will get a Best Picture nomination.  It's fall from grace makes me a little dizzy.  "Spotlight" nailed a perfect score from these Oscarologists.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Tom McCarthy/Spotlight (1)
2) Ridley Scott/The Martian (3)
3) Alejandro Inarritu/The Revenant (2)
4) George Miller/Mad Max:Fury Road (7)
5) Todd Haynes/Carol (8)

6) Steven Spielberg/Bridge of Spies (4)
7) Lenny Abrahamson/Room (5)
8) Quentin Tarantino/The Hateful Eight (10)
9) John Crowley/Brooklyn (NR)
10) Adam McKay/The Big Short (NR)

Hot: Miller, Haynes, Tarantino, Crowley, McKay
Not: Spielberg, Abrahamson, Boyle, Russell

Comment: The upward trajectory for Haynes and Miller reveal that they are thought to be serious Best Picture contenders as well.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Brie Larson/Room (1)
2) Saorise Ronan/Brooklyn (3)
3) Cate Blanchett/Carol (4)
4) Charlotte Rampling/45 Years (5)
5) Jennifer Lawrence/Joy (2)

6) Rooney Mara/Carol (NR)
7) Carey Mulligan/Suffragette (6)
8) Lily Tomlin/Grandma (8)
9) Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold (NR)
10) Sarah Silverman/I Smile Back (NR)

Hot: Mara, Mirren, Silverman
Not: Lawrence, Danner, Smith, Blanchett (Truth)

Comment:  Nothing better illustrates the fall of "Joy" than Jennifer Lawrence's drop to the #5 spot and fighting to stay on as a likely nominee.  She's still way out front of Rooney Mara (whose presence here indicates a potential rejection of the decision to campaign her in the Supporting category) but the drop over the last three weeks has been precipitous.

BEST ACTOR

1) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Revenant (1)
2) Michael Fassbender/Steve Jobs (2)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Danish Girl (3)
4) Matt Damon/The Martian (5)
5) Bryan Cranston/Trumbo (NR)

6) Johnny Depp/Black Mass (4)
7) Will Smith/Concussion (7)
8) Ian McKellen/Mr. Holmes (9)
9) Michael Caine/Youth (6)
10) Steve Carell/The Big Short (10)

Hot: Cranston
Not: Depp, Caine, Hanks

Comment: Bryan Cranston's jump into contention has been stratospheric.  I still have serious reservations about Damon making the top five.

If these predictions are 100% accurate, then films/performers from Telluride will earn nine nominations in these four categories with an additional five possibilities.


I'll update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay Oscar predictions in Monday's edition of MTFB/FAC.


AMERICAN FILM INSTITUTES'S TOP TEN FILMS

The AFI announced their list of the Ten Best films of 2015 yesterday and three Telluride Film Fest films made the grade: "Carol", "Room" and "Spotlight".  Other films making the AFI Top Ten included:

"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Inside Out"
"Mad Max:Fury Road"
"The Martian"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Straight Outta Compton"

Left out: "The Revenant", "Joy", "Creed", "Steve Jobs", "Black Mass" and "The Hateful Eight".

Last year the AFI list included 11 films:

"American Sniper"
"Birdman"
"Boyhood"
"Foxcatcher"
"The Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"Into the Woods"
"Nightcrawler"
"Selma"
"Unbroken"
"Whiplash"


I've included links to this coverage of the AFI announcement:

https://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/afi-awards-honorees-star-wars-mr-robot-1201662848/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/avi-top-ten-2015/

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/star-wars-force-awakens-lands-849517



THE LATEST GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News was up yesterday with an updated posting for the Gurus of Gold.  Their list of Best Picture cumulative predictions has TFF films as follows:

"Spotlight" #1
"Carol" #3
"Room" #8
"Steve Jobs" #11
"Beasts of No Nation" #17

The complete Gurus update is here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/gurus-o-gold-what-underdogs-are-still-barking/

Additionally, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily broke down the implications of the latest from the Gurus in this post yesterday:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/16/at-last-a-consensus-emerges-in-the-best-picture-race/#


That'll do for now.  I'll post anew on Monday...

Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to


Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712

News from Los Angeles, Boston and New York / Director's from TFF #42 / Charlotte Rampling Up Close

Good Monday everyone...


NEWS FROM LOS ANGELES, BOSTON AND NEW YORK

Critics groups from L.A., Beantown and The Big Apple all weighed in on Sunday with their superlatives for the 2015 motion picture season.  Of the three groups, the most notable is the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.  The Boston Society of Film Critics and The New York Film Critics Online also passed judgement yesterday.  I include their assessments here as well, thought they probably don't carry the same gravitas as the LAFCA (or the New York Film Critics Circle or the National Board of Review which named their "Best Of" earlier this week.

Here's how TFF #42 films fared for each critic's group.

L.A.F.C.A...

"Spotlight" Best Picture, Best Screenplay
"Son of Saul": Best Foreign Film, Geza Rorhig; Best Actor Runner Up
"45 Years": Charlotte Rampling: Best Actress
"Carol": Todd Haynes: Best Director Runner Up, Best Production Design Runner Up, Best Musical Score, Best Cinematography Runner Up
"Anomalisa": Best Animation, Best Screenplay Runner Up, Best Musical Score
"Steve Jobs": Michael Fassbender: Best Actor
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #41) Best Documentary Runner Up
"99 Homes" (TFF #41) Michael Shannon: Best Supporting Actor

Complete L.A. critics' analysis is here:
http://www.lafca.net/years/2015.html


http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/los-angeles-film-critics-association-winners-in-progress-1201655037/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/los-angeles-film-critics-vote-updated-20151206

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/spotlight-named-best-picture-by-846239

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/12/06/99986/


NYFCO...

"Spotlight": Best Ensemble Cast, Best Screenplay, Best Direction, Best Picture
"Son of Saul" Foreign Language Picture
"Carol" Rooney Mara: Best Supporting Actress
"Room": Brie Larson: Best Actress

Analysis:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/new-york-film-critics-online-winners-list-spotlight-1201655190/

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/12/new-york-online-film-critics-also-shine-spotlight/

http://www.thewrap.com/spotlight-named-best-picture-by-new-york-film-critics-online/


BSFC...

"Spotlight": Best Picture, Tom McCarthy; Best Direction Runner Up, Best Screenplay, Best Editing Runner Up, Best Ensemble Cast
"Carol" Todd Haynes: Best Direction, Best Screenplay Runner Up, Best Cinematography
"45 Years" Charlotte Rampling: Best Actress
"Anomalisa" Best Animated Film
"The Look of Silence" (TFF #$1) Best Documentary Runner Up, Best Foreign Film

Analysis:

http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/spotlight-named-best-film-of-2015-by-boston-society-of-film-critics-1201655050/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/criticwire/boston-society-of-film-critics-awards-2015-20151206

http://awardswatch.com/news/boston-society-of-film-critics-winners-spotlight-is-best-pic-kristen-stewart-wins-again/



DIRECTORS FROM TFF #42

Ongoing interviews included here from various sources with directors whose work was screened at the 42nd Telluride Film Festival"

Danny Boyle/"Steve Jobs" from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/steve-jobs-director-danny-boyle-talks-about-his-action-movie-with-words/


Kent Jones/"Hitchcock/Truffaut" from The Film Stage:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/kent-jones-talks-hitchcocktruffaut-finding-the-right-people-shaping-a-documentary-more/



Laszlo Nemes/"Son of Saul" from The Film Stage:

http://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-interviews-with-the-son-of-saul-team-as-laszlo-nemes-prepares-new-feature-sunset/



CHARLOTTE RAMPLING UP CLOSE:

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood profiles the Berlin Best Actress winner and Oscar candidate:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/icon-of-cool-charlotte-rampling-talks-45-years-sculpting-her-acting-muscles-and-working-with-woody-allen-20151201


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

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Oscar Precursors and Telluride: NBR and New York

Good Thursday everyone...


OSCAR PRECURSORS AND TELLURIDE: NBR AND NEW YORK

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW

Both the National Board of Review and The New York Film Critics Circle announced their award winners for outstanding film making since my past post on Monday and here's how each recognized Telluride films

The National Board of Review named Brie Larson Best Actress for "Room".  Best Breakthrough Performance named two young actors who both appeared in Telluride films, Jacob Tremblay from "Room" and Abraham Attah from "Beasts of No Nation".  "Son of Saul" was named Best Foreign Language film.  "Beasts of No Nation" was named winner of NBR's Freedom of Expression award.

"Room" and "Spotlight" were named to the Top Ten list of Best Films while "45 Years" was named to their list of Top Ten Indie Films.  Also named were TFF #41 films "The Look of Silence" as one of five Best Documentaries and "'71" which was also named as a Best Indie Film.

George Miller's "Mad Max: Fury Road" was named NBR's Best Film of the year.  Complete coverage and analysis is here:


http://www.nationalboardofreview.org/2015/12/national-board-of-review-announces-2015-award-winners/

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/12/01/national-board-of-review-tba-and-no-guts-no-glory/

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/12/01/99794/

http://awardswatch.com/slider/2015-national-board-of-review-nbr-winners-mad-max-fury-road-wins-best-pic/

http://www.ew.com/article/2015/12/01/nbr-awards-2015-mad-max-fury-road

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/national-board-of-review-names-award-winners-10-best-of-2015-20151201



NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE:

It was a big day for Todd Haynes' (and TFF 42's) "Carol" which received four accolades from the New York critics group:  Best Feature, Best Direction, Best Screenplay and Best Cinematography.

Other Telluride players from New York's awards were:

"Son of Saul" as Best First Film and  Michael Keaton/"Spotlight" as Best Actor (not Supporting Actor...hmmmm).

Los Angeles critics name the winners on Sunday, so look for that coverage here on Monday.

NYFCC coverage is here:


http://variety.com/2015/film/in-contention/new-york-film-critics-circle-winners-in-progress-1201651677/

http://time.com/4132996/carol-new-york-film-critics-circle-awards/

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/goldstandard/la-et-mn-new-york-film-critics-carol-20151202-column.html

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2015-new-york-film-critics-845071

http://deadline.com/2015/12/new-york-film-critics-circle-winners-2015-1201648430/


More to come on Monday...


Contact me at:

michael_speech@hotmail.com OR

mpgort@gmail.com OR

via Twitter @Gort2 OR to

Michael's Telluride Film Blog's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaels-Telluride-Film-Blog-and-The-Film-Awards-Clearinghouse/107846269309712