Sixteen Oscar Categories/The Big Eight Again/Final Predictions from the Experts

Good Thursday Everyone...Oscar happens in 3 days!

SIXTEEN OSCAR CATEGORIES

Here's where The Film Awards Clearinghouse is as far the "below-the-line" Oscar categories are concerned.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar winners:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) How to Train Your Dragon 2
2) Big Hero 6
3) The Boxtrolls
4) The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
5) Song of the Sea

Comment:  "Dragon's" lead is substantial.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Citizenfour
2) Virunga
3) The Last Days of Vietnam
4) Finding Vivian Maier
5) Salt of the Earth

Comment: It's a huge surprise if "Citizenfour" doesn't win.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Ida
2) Wild Tales
3) Leviathan
4) Timbuktu
5) Tangerines

Comment:  "Ida" is out front, but any of the top three films could win.


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman
2) The Grand Budapest Hotel
3) Mr. Turner
4) Unbroken
5) Ida

Comment: "Birdman" easily.  Lubezki wins second in a row.

BEST COSTUMES

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) Malificent
5) Inherent Vice

Comment: "Budapest" is likely but "Into the Woods" could surprise.

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood
2) Whiplash
3) American Sniper
4) The Grand Budapest Hotel
5) The Imitation Game

Comment: "Boyhood's" perceived lead is huge.  Personally, I could see a "Whiplash" upset here.

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Guardians of the Galaxy
3) Foxcatcher

Comment:  A "Budapest" win is very likely but not a slam dunk.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel (tie)
2) The Theory of Everything
3) The Imitation Game
4) Interstellar
5) Mr. Turner

Comment: This race is a dead heat with "Budapest" getting the edge based on #1 positions among the experts I analyze.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma
2) I'm not Gonna Miss You/I'll Be Me
3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie
4) Lost Stars/Begin Again
5) Grateful/Beyond the Lights

Comment: "Glory"   has the edge in a notoriously difficult category to predict.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Into the Woods
3) Mr. Turner
4) The Imitation Game
5) Interstellar

Comment: "Budapest" with a substantial edge here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Interstellar
4) Unbroken
5) The Hobbit: Smaug

Comment:  "Sniper" has a solid lead.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1) American Sniper
2) Birdman
3) Whiplash
4) Interstellar
5) Unbroken

Comment: "Sniper's" position is less secure here as opposed to Sound Editing...

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar
2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3) Guardians of the Galaxy
4) Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5) X-Men: Days of Future Past

Comment: This is a close race between the top three in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Bigger Picture (3 way tie)
2) Feast
2) The Dam Keeper
4) A Single Life
5) Me and My Moulton

Comment: This race is too close to call between all three of the top listed films.  "Bigger Picture" got The FAC nod as it's listed at the top by two of the experts.  Frankly, I'm leaning toward "The Dam Keeper".

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) Crisis Hotline
2) Joanna
3) The Reaper
4) White Earth
5) Our Curse

Comment: a two film race between "Crisis" and "Joanna".

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Phone Call
2) Parveneh
3) Boogaloo and Graham
4) Butter Lamp
5) Aya

Comment: "Phone Call" with a slight edge in a category that any of the five could win.


THE BIG EIGHT AGAIN

This is a re-post of the Big Eight categories that I posted on Sunday.  EXPECT AN UPDATE ON OSCAR MORNING!!!

BEST PICTURE

1) Birdman
2) Boyhood
3) The Imitation Game
4) American Sniper
5) The Grand Budapest Hotel
6) Selma
7) The Theory of Everything
8) Whiplash

Comment:  "Birdman" and "Boyhood" swap spots at the top of the chart as a result of "Birdman" guild wins in the past few eeks (PGA, DGA, SAG) but it is soooooo close.  The metric I use, has them separated by one point...ONE.  Four experts say "Bird": Feinberg, Brevet, Davis and Knegt. Stone, Tapley and Thompson have "Boyhood" on top.  It's a nail biter.

FURTHER NOTE: Since Sunday's original post, Tapley has gone back to a "Birdman" choice, giving the Inarritu film a little breathing room.

BEST DIRECTOR

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
3) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
5) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Linklater stays on top here but, again, the separation is ONE POINT between he and Inarritu.  Inarritu's DGA win weighs heavily in the closeness of this race as well.  There is an increasing speculation that The Academy may well split picture and director this year as it did last year.  That'd be weird, but the season has been weird.  What's weirder is that buzz cuts both ways with some in the biz suggesting a Bird BP win with a Linklater directing Oscar and others doing a "180" and suggesting a "Boyhood" BP win and the directing trophy to go to Inarritu.  My personal feeling, perhaps only transitionally, is that Bird/Inarritu are going to win both.

BEST ACTOR

1) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything
2) Michael Keaton/Birdman
3) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper
4) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game
5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher

Comment:  Redmayne's lead has opened up a bit over the last couple of weeks but it's still not enough to declare him a lock for Oscar on Sunday night.  I still think Keaton has a shot.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
3) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
5) Marion Cotillard/Two Days One Night

Comment: One of the three acting trophies that are locked up.  Moore wins.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
2) Emma Stone/Birdman
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game
4) Laura Dern/Wild
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods

Comment:  Ms. Arquette will have an Oscar to take to the CSI: Cyber set next week.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash
2) Edward Norton/Birdman
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge

Comment: JK wins.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Whiplash
2) American Sniper
3) The Imitation Game
4) The Theory of Everything
5) Inherent Vice

Comment:  This is a competitive category with "Sniper" moving up the chart strongly over the past couple of weeks.  I could see this landing for any of the five.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel
2) Birdman
3) Boyhood
4) Nightcrawler
5) Foxcatcher

Comment: Also an uber competitive category.  "Budapest"  edges past "Birdman" but it's very, very close.  Also, don't count out a "Boyhood" win here.

FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I'm linking the "final" Oscar predictions here from any number of Oscarologists some of which I use for The FAC, some I don't.  I'll update the "Finals" section as we go through the rest of the week...

Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/02/gurus-o-gold-the-final-vote-every-category-1-of-2/

Awards Circuit/Clayton Davis:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/2015/02/18/oscars-2015-will-winshould-win-mike-ward/

The Hollywood Reporter/Scott Feinberg and Todd McCarthy:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-2015-who-will-774490

The Wrap/Steve Pond:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscars-24-final-will-win-should-win-predictions-birdman-boyhood-budapest-top-baffling-year/

IndieWire/Oliver Lyttleton:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/who-should-win-who-will-win-predicting-the-2015-oscars-20150218

Deadline/Pete Hammond:

http://deadline.com/2015/02/oscar-predictions-2015-who-will-win-academy-awards-1201374854/


Again, a FINAL FAC ON SUNDAY...

Queen of the Desert Clip/Birdman News/Deepwater Horizon Switch/Foxcatcher Script Notes/Jobs Images/Notes on The Imitation Game

Good Monday World...Oscar night is less than three weeks away!


QUEEN OF THE DESERT CLIP


We have our first filmic glimpse of Werner Herzog's Berlin premiering "Queen of the Desert".  For the time being, I have high expectations that it will be on the program at TFF #42:

"Queen of the Desert" clip via YouTube

Additionally, here is The Playlist's story announcing the clip:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-nicole-kidman-is-not-ready-for-romance-in-first-clip-from-werner-herzogs-queen-of-the-desert-20150129


BIRDMAN NEWS

"Birdman" trailer via YouTube

A couple of new "Birdman" features popped up this week.  The first, linked below, is a video conversation with Michael Keaton.  The other link is a story that looks at the development of the Times Square scene in the film:

http://www.indiewire.com/awardsspotlight/michael-keaton-dug-deep-to-deliever

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/shooting-birdman-and-drawing-soccer-style-cheers/


DEEPWATER HORIZON SWITCH

J.C. Chandor (and Robert Redford) at TFF #40

It was an unlikely 2015 Telluride choice because of timing, but I could have seen it as a 2016 possibility with J.C. Chandor on board but word came this weekend that "Deepwater Horizon", the film about the BP Gulf of Mexico Oil Drilling Platform disaster will not have Chandor in the director' s chair.  Rather, Peter Berg has bee brought in as Chandor has departed. That switch will move "Deepwater" way, way down on my "Telluride" lookout list for 2016.  The Playlist and Hollywood Elsewhere are linked here with coverage of Chandor's departure:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/directors-peter-berg-in-jc-chandor-out-for-deepwater-horizon-james-fraco-to-helm-in-dubious-battle-and-more-20150130

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/01/deeper-chandors-departure/


FOXCATCHER SCRIPT NOTES

"Foxcatcher" trailer via YouTube

Oscar nominated screenwriters for "Foxcatcher" Dan Futterman and E. Max Frye talked to Variety about the development of the script about the murder of an American Olympian by one of the wealthiest men in the country:

http://variety.com/2015/biz/news/poppolitics-parks-rec-makes-final-trek-to-d-c-foxcatcher-and-the-truth-of-john-du-pont-listen-1201420314/

JOBS IMAGES

Danny Boyle, Seth Rogen and Michael Fassbender working at "Jobs"

Danny Boyle has started shooting "Jobs" with Michael Fassbender and Seth Rogen working from and Aaron Sorkin script and the first images of the film have surfaced.  I've re-posted a couple here:


Yahoo Movies has a bit of a story and some images here:

https://www.yahoo.com/movies/michael-fassbender-steve-jobs-first-look-109606458777.html


NOTES ON THE IMITATION GAME

'The Imitation Game" trailer via YouTube

Screenwriter Graham Moore and author were awarded the USC Scripter Award over the weekend.  The award is given to the Best Adapted Screenplay of the year to both the screenwriter as well as the author)s) of the original source material that has been adapted.  the award is often a harbinger of which film will go on to win the same award on Oscar night.  HitFix has the story:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-imitation-game-wins-the-2015-usc-scripter-award

"Imitation Game: star Benedict Cumberbatch, who created a bit of a stir with his seemingly racist word choice last week, has called for an official pardon for the nearly 50,000 British gay men who were persecuted under the same laws that Alan Turing (Cumberbatch's character in the film).  HitFix has that story here:


http://time.com/3691013/benedict-cumberbatch-gay-pardon/

More on Thursday.  Have a great week everyone!

Berlin Adds Titles/Coens and Cannes/Winners Bracket/Much Ado About: Birdman, Imitation Game, Foxcatcher/First Look: The Revenant/Oscar and Festivals

BERLIN ADDS TITLES...MORE TELLURIDE INTRIGUE

The Berlin International Film Festival named their last set of films for competition earlier this week and there were a couple that caught my eye as potential films for the Telluride slate: Wim Wenders "Every Thing Will Be Fine starring James Franco and Rachel McAdams and Pablo Larrain's "The Club".  Here's a selection of coverage of the Berlin announcement:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/berlin-film-festival-completes-competition-lineup-2-1201408621/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/wim-wenders-3d-every-thing-will-be-fine-starring-james-franco-will-bow-in-berlin-20150119

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/wim-wenders-3d-drama-every-thing-will-be-fine-new-films-by-pablo-larrain-oliver-hirschbiegel-complete-berlin-line-up-20150119


COENS AND CANNES
 

TFF #40 Tribute recipients "The Coen Brothers" have been named as co-Presidents of the Palme d'Or jury for the Cannes Film Fest.  The Coens presented "Inside Llewyn Davis" at T-ride in 2013.  The Coens have had a number of films play at Cannes and I have always thought their Cannes connection was likely a big reason tat "Llewyn" became their first film to screen at TFF.  Any chance that we might see their "Hail, Caesar!" might make a Telluride play?  At this point, the Feb. 2016 release date would seem to make that unlikely.  I have linked a few of the stories about their Cannes selection here:

http://variety.com/2015/film/news/coen-brothers-named-jury-presidents-of-68th-cannes-film-festival-1201409394/

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/the-coen-brothers-will-head-up-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-jury

http://deadline.com/2015/01/joel-and-ethan-coen-cannes-festival-jury-chairmen-1201353692/


WINNERS BRACKET

Now that the Oscar nominations are out, a good number of the Oscar experts are weighing in as to their thoughts about which films will actually carry off the trophies on Feb. 22.  Check those below:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/the-state-of-the-race-the-nominations-are-in-who-is-winning-what/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/now-that-we-know-the-nominees-whos-going-to-win-the-oscar-for-best-picture-20150116

https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/556895977052065793/photo/1

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/oscars/2015/oscars-1202015

http://moviecitynews.com/2015/01/gurus-o-gold-a-week-after-nominations-any-changes/?


MUCH ADO ABOUT...

BIRDMAN COLLECTION

"Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" material for Inarritu's "Birdman":

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/watch-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-at-telluride-exclusive-video-20140901

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-23-minute-talk-with-birdman-stars-michael-keaton-ed-norton-20150108

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/making-birdman-alejandro-g-inarritu-761407

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/interview-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-talks-birdman-the-films-bad-original-ending-critics-true-detective-more-20150108

http://deadline.com/2015/01/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-birdman-director-interview-michael-keaton-1201341925/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9gL7qlMiz4

http://thecreatorsproject.vice.com/blog/birdman-backstage-is-a-virtual-tour-inside-the-soaring-oscar-nominee


IMITATION COLLECTION

Interviews and "Behind the Scenes" features for "The Imitation Game":


http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-en-morten-tyldum-20150101-story.html


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cracking-code-how-two-work-745734


http://www.indiewire.com/article/keira-knightley-on-faking-her-way-through-the-imitation-game-and-getting-loose-for-laggies-20150120




FOXCATCHER: THE FIRST FILM

Here's an interesting piece of video.  This is the Jon DuPont promotional film...ther eal one...that is referenced in "Foxcatcher":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4WOqUkJmFQ&feature=youtu.be


FIRST LOOK: THE REVENANT

Entertainment Weekly has the first photos from Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  The film, set for a December release, would be a prime Telluride possibility if it's done in time for Labor Day...but that's a BIG IF...


http://www.firstshowing.net/2015/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-in-birdman-directors-the-revenant/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-leonardo-dicaprio-gets-grimy-in-alejandro-gonzalez-inarritus-the-revenant-20150121


OSCAR AND FESTIVALS

Indiewire looks at which film festivals acted as the premiere host/site for which Oscar nominated films:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-2015-oscar-race-which-film-festivals-came-out-on-top-20150120


More on Monday...Have a great weekend!

Parsing the Oscars Through Telluride's Lense

The nominating is all done.  Now onto the ceremony on Feb. 22

PARSING THE OSCARS (THROUGH TELLURIDE'S LENSE

TFF #41 produces films that grab 33 Oscar nominations plus an additional two from TFF #40 title "Ida".

The breakdown:

Birdman-Nine- Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.  Surprisingly NOT nominated for Film Editing (could tell you that it doesn't have a shot at winning Best Picture), or Production Design.

The Imitation Game- Eight-Picture, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Original Score.  That's exactly what The FAC had for this film.

Foxcatcher-Five- Direction, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair. Foxcatcher really over-performed based on what The FAC expected but tell me how the film can be one of the five best directed, best written and best acted films and NOT be nominated for Best Picture?  More admired than loved, I guess.

Mr. Turner-Four- Original Score, Production Design, Cinematography and Costumes.  The score nomination was a surprise.

Wild-Two-Best Actress and Supporting Actress.  Laura Dern sneaks in ahead of Rene Russo.

Two Days, One Night-One-Marion Cotillard gets a nod ahead of Jennifer Aniston and Amy Adams.

Single nominations for: "Salt of the Earth" as Best Doc Feature and "Leviathan" and "Wild Tales" for Foreign Language.  "Feast" was nominated for Best Animated Short.

Overall, a remarkable year for Telluride films as far as Oscar recognition.

The FAC goes 75 out of 106 this morning or 71%...one of the least successful rates since I started doing this.  Lots of 3/5 categories.  The FAC's best category: Supporting Actor where I went 5/5 and Makeup...3/3.  Worst categories: Doc Feature and Sound Mixing -2/5 in each. In the "close but no cigar" dept.  Seven categories had nominations from a film that The FAC had as the #6 possibility.

Surprises and weirdness:

In addition to my amazement mentioned above vis-a-vis "Foxcatcher"...

The "American Sniper" trend turned out to be real...very real.  Six nominations...Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound Editing and Mixing.  The Final FAC had "Sniper" getting one nomination for screenplay.

"Budapest" performed better than expected and "Boyhood" (which is still your favorite for Best Pic, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress...but...see below) did exactly what was expected.

"Birdman" underperformed. as The FAC had it getting 10 nominations including Film Editing and Production Design on which is missed.  It did get a Sound Mixing nomination, which was a bit of a surprise.

"Selma"  Only two nominations...Song and Picture...how very odd.

"The Imitation Game" The FAC predicted "The Imitation Game eight nominations exactly.  Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design and Score.

Category notes:

The Bennett Miller directing nomination is really a surprise.
Let this be remembered: don't bet against Bradley Cooper for an acting nomination.
"Birdman's" lack of a film editing nomination is probably an indication it won't be a Best Picture winner.
Best Song: "Grateful" from "Beyond the Lights" wasn't even in The FAC's final ten.
No "LEGO Movie" for Animated Feature...it was easily #1 in The FAC...that's a huge surprise.
No one can figure out Documentary feature nominees...
"Ida" for cinematography...way to go Kris Tapley!


Finally..."Boyhood", as mentioned above, is still your favorite...but...clearly The Academy loves "Grand Budapest" and "Imitation Game".  At this point, if an upset is to occur, it'll be one of those two films.

Early faves in each major category:

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette/Boyhood
Best Supporting Actor: JK Simmons/Whiplash
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Best Actor: Michael Keaton/Birdman
Best Direction: Richard Linklater/Boyhood
Best Picture: Boyhood.

More later...and on Monday!

Oscar Nominations

Complete List of Oscar nominees via Variety:

Best motion picture of the year

“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter Morgan,Producers
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole, Producers
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers
“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers
“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers
“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers
“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

Best animated feature film of the year

“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Achievement in cinematography

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

Achievement in costume design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice” Mark Bridges
“Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner” Jacqueline Durran

Achievement in directing

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

Best documentary feature

“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester
“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier
“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Best documentary short subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
“Joanna” Aneta Kopacz
“Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki
“The Reaper (La Parka)” Gabriel Serra Arguello
“White Earth” J. Christian Jensen

Achievement in film editing

“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

Best foreign language film of the year

“Ida” Poland
“Leviathan” Russia
“Tangerines” Estonia
“Timbuktu” Mauritania
“Wild Tales” Argentina

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

“Foxcatcher” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“Glory” from “Selma”
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

Achievement in production design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game” Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods” Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner” Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

Best animated short film

“The Bigger Picture” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton” Torill Kove
“A Single Life” Joris Oprins

Best live action short film

“Aya” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Achievement in sound editing

“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar” Richard King
“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Achievement in sound mixing

“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Achievement in visual effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould
“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer

Adapted screenplay

“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

Original screenplay

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

Analysis coming later today.  Quick count shows Telluride with 33 nominations for this year and 2 for last year's "Ida".

The (Probably) Final FAC

Welcome to this special Wednesday edition of The Film Awards Clearinghouse with less than 24 hours to go before the announcement of Oscar nominations...

THE (PROBABLY) FINAL FAC

Here's the last posting of the 21 Feature categories nomination predictions.

The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:

Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses followed by the original FAC ranking from Vol 1. back on  ).

Today, I update the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Imitation Game (3) (3)
4) The Theory of Everything (5) (6)
5) Selma (4)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (6) (10)
7) Whiplash (7)
8) Gone Girl (9) (8)
9) Nightcrawler (11)

If The Academy follows form from the last three years, this would be the cut off at nine nominations.

10) American Sniper (13)
11) Foxcatcher (10) (4)
12) Unbroken (8) (5)
13) Into the Woods (12)
14) Interstellar (14) (7)
15) Mr. Turner (15) (9)


Comment:"Selma" seems to be taking a small hit in the estimation of this collective of Oscarologists probably due the lack of a PGA nomination and The BAFTA snubbing that happened earlier this week.  "Nightcrawler" and "American Sniper" both seem to have realistic chances to get a Best Picture nomination although I continue to cross my fingers for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".

"Unbroken's" fall from favor appears to be complete.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (2) (1)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3)
4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4) (6)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (5) (9)

6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7)
8) Clint Eastwood/American Sniper (9)
9) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (8) (3)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (13)

Comment: The "Selma" slide doesn't show any effect in this category.  Marsh rebounds a little and Jolie seems to be done.


BEST ACTOR

1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1) (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) (4)
3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (3) (6)
5) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (5)

6) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (6) (3)
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (8) (7)
8) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner(7) (5)
9) Bradley Cooper/American Sniper (9)
10) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (10)

Comment:  Oyelowo may have suffered a bit.  Top three seem to be solid and then the next four: Oyelowo, Gyllenhaal, Carell and Fiennes fighting for that last two spots.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) (8)
2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2) (1)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3) (4)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4) (3)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (5)

6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (7) (2)
7) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (6)
8) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (8) (6)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (9)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (10) (7)


Comment: The category may be locked with these top five.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) JK Simmons/Whiplash (1) (1)
2) Edward Norton/Birdman (2) 
3) Ethan Hawke/Boyhood (3) (4)
4) Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher (4) (3)
5) Robert Duvall/The Judge (5) (8)

6) Josh Brolin/Inherent Vice (6) (5)
7) Tom Wilkinson/Selma (7) (7)
8) Miyavi/Unbroken (8)
9) Christoph Waltz/Big Eyes (9)
10) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (NR)

Comment:  Carell's nomination in this category by the Brits sent up a flare that there could be some sentiment that he should be in the same category on Thursday morning and so, for the first time, he appears in Supporting.  Honestly, though, the top five are really solid.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Patricia Arquette/Boyhood (1) (1)
2) Emma Stone/Birdman (3) (4)
3) Kiera Knightley/The Imitation Game (4) (2)
4) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (2)
5) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (5) (8)

6) Laura Dern/Wild (6) (3)
7) Rene Russo/Nightcrawler (10)
8) Tilda Swinton/Snowpiercer (7)
9) Naomi Watts/St. Vincent (8)
10) Carmen Ejogo/Selma (9) (9)

Comment:  Meryl Streep with a late slide...giving Laura Dern a bit of life.  Rene Russo is also very, very hot.  Don't be stunned if she has the fifth spot Thursday morning.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Imitation Game (1) (2)
2) Gone Girl (2) (6)
3) The Theory of Everything (3) (3)
4) Wild (4) (8)
5) American Sniper (7) (4)

6) Inherent Vice (5) (5)
7) Whiplash (NR)
8) Unbroken (6) (1)
9) Into the Woods (8) (7)
10) Still Alice (9)

Comment:  The revelation that "Whiplash" was categorized by The Academy as an Adapted script has this and the Original Screenplay race reflecting a new reality at the 11th hour.  Next to JK Simmons, a screenplay nomination has always been the second best possibility for a "Whiplash" Oscar nomination.  So, it shows up here at #7 in its first appearance in the category it will actually be eligible for.   I suspect it gets a nomination here and bumps "Wild" or "Sniper".



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Boyhood (1) (2)
2) Birdman (2) (1)
3) The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) (4)

4) Nightcrawler (6)

5) Selma (5) (9)

6) Foxcatcher (7) (3)

7) Mr. Turner (8) (5)

8) A Most Violent Year (9) (7)

9) The LEGO Movie (10)

10) Wild Tales (11)

Comment:  "Whiplash's" departure from this category opens a chance for "Foxcatcher" to hop back in.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The LEGO Movie

2) How to Train a Your Dragon 2

3) Big Hero 6

4) The Boxtrolls

5) The Story of Princess Kaguya

6) The Book of Life

7) The Song of the Sea

8) Rio 2

9) Cheatin'

10) The Penguins of Madagascar

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1)  Citizenfour

2) Life Itself

3) Keep On Keepin' On

4) The Last Days of Vietnam

5) The Overnighters

6) The Case Against 8

7) Virunga

8) Finding Vivan Maier

9) Tales of the Grim Sleeper

10) Salt of the Earth

Foreign Language Film

1) Ida (TFF #40)

2) Wild Tales 

3) Force Majeure

4) Leviathan

5) Timbuktu

6) Tangerines

7) The Liberator

8) Accused

9) Corn Island

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Birdman

2) Mr. Turner

3) Unbroken

4) Interstellar

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Selma

7) The Grand Budapest Hotel

8) Gone Girl

9) A Most Violent Year

10) Into the Woods

COSTUMES

1) Into the Woods

2) Mr. Turner

3) The Grand Budapest Hotel

4) Malificent

5) Selma

6) Big Eyes

7) The Imitation Game

8) The Theory of Everything

9) Exodus; Gods and Kings

10) Inherent Vice

FILM EDITING

1) Boyhood

2) Birdman

3) The Imitation Game

4) Whiplash

5) Gone Girl

6) Selma

7) Unbroken

8) Foxcatcher

9) Interstellar

10) American Sniper

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Guardians of the Galaxy

3) Foxcatcher

4) Malificent

5) The Theory of Everything

6) Noah

7) The Amazing Spiderman 2

ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Theory of Everything

2) The Imitation Game

3) Interstellar

4) Gone Girl

5) Unbroken

6) The Grand Budapest Hotel

7) The Judge

8) The Homesman

9) How to Train Your Dragon 2

10) Fury

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Glory/Selma

2) Lost Stars/Begin Again

3) Everything is Awesome/The LEGO Movie

4) Mercy is/Noah

5) Big Eyes/ Big Eyes

6) Miracle/Unbroken

7) Yellow Flicker Beat/Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part One

8) I'm not Gonna Miss You/Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me

9) Split the Difference/Boyhood

10) Opportunity/Annie

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) The Grand Budapest Hotel

2) Into the Woods

3) Mr. Turner

4) Birdman

5) The Imitation Game

6) Interstellar

7) Malificent

8) Unbroken

9) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

10) Snowpiercer

SOUND EDITING

1) Interstellar

2) Fury

3) Unbroken

4) Godzilla

5) Birdman

6) American Sniper

7) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

8) Guardians of the Galaxy

9) Transformers 4

10) Into the Woods

SOUND MIXING

1) Into the Woods

2) Unbroken

3) Transformers 4

4) Interstellar

5) Get On Up

6) Fury

7) American Sniper

8) Whiplash

9) Guardians of the Galaxy

10) The Hobbit; The Battle of the Five Armies

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Interstellar

2) Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

3) Guardians of the Galaxy

4) The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

5) Godzilla

6) Transformers 4

7) X-Men: Days of Future Past

8) Malificent

9) Captain America; The Winter Soldier

10) Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb


NOTE: There appears, in the late going, to be a surge in "American Sniper's" direction.  A lot of pundits now think it's a likely Best Picture nomination and potentially more.  Don't be surprised if it pops up Thursday morning.  "Sniper"  could see as many as seven nominations.  

TELLURIDE #41 OSCAR BREAKDOWN

If The FAC was 100% accurate (and it's NOT...remember, past experience has shown The FAC to be 75-80% accurate on Oscar nomination morning with about 80% of the "misses' coming from the #6 spot in each category...except for Best Picture, of course)...

Anyway, if The FAC is 100% accurate, here's what would be the breakdown:

Telluride #41 Films would have 28 nominations ("Ida" in foreign film would go back to add to the TFF #40 total...which sits at 34 as a result) with another 12 possibilities.

They'd be spread as such:

"Birdman" Ten nominations (the most of any film and likely the only film with double digit nominations): Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design and Sound Editing.  

"The Imitation Game" Eight nominations (the second largest number of nominations of any film):  Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Original Score and Production Design.  It could also be nominated for Best Costumes.

"Mr. Turner" Three nominations: Cinematography, Costumes and Production Design.  "Turner" could also get into the act with nominations for Best Actor and Original Screenplay.

"Foxcatcher" Two nominations: Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair.  "Foxcatcher" has one of the larger "possibility" profiles of any film with "maybes" for Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing.

"Wild": Two nominations: Actress and Original Screenplay.  Also a "maybe" for: Supporting Actress.

Foreign Films : "Wild Tales" and "Leviathan" with the aforementioned TFF #40 title, "Ida", a likely nominee.

Documentary Feature:  "Keep on Keepin' On" looks like a a nominees with "Tales of the Grim Sleeper" and "Salt of the Earth" as also possibles.  You can semi-add "Life Itself" as it screened in Telluride the night before the festival opened in Elks Park.

Two other TFF titles have possible Oscar nominations.  "The Homesman" is still in the mix for Best Actress and Best Original Score and "Two Days, One Night" could also see a Best Actress nomination for Marion Cotillard.

Non-Telluride films are led by "Boyhood", "Selma", "The Theory of Everything" and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" all with six probable nominations.

Expected to get five noms are: "Unbroken", "Interstellar" and "Gone Girl"

Four noms to" "Whiplash" and "Into the Woods"

Two nominations for: "The LEGO Movie", "How to Train Your Dragon 2", "Guardians of the Galaxy" and "Godzilla"


FINAL PREDICTIONS FROM THE EXPERTS

I've linked someof final Oscar predictions from experts.  I'll update this list throughout the day so check back...

Peter Knegt of IndieWire:

 http://www.indiewire.com/article/for-your-consideration-final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150113

Tomris Laffly of Popcorn Business:

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2015/01/predictions-for-87th-academy-awards.html

Clayton Davis of Awards Circuit:

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/2014-oscar-predictions-best-motion-picture/


The Playlist's final Oscar predictions:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-playlists-final-predictions-for-the-87th-academy-award-nominations-20150113

Kris Tapley and Greg Ellwood at HitFix/InContention:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/final-predictions-for-the-2015-oscar-nominations


Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/final-oscar-nomination-predictions-20150114

Jenelle Reilly/Variety:

http://variety.com/2015/film/awards/oscar-nomination-predictions-2015-1201405074/

Steve Pond/The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-nomination-predictions-can-jennifer-aniston-and-jake-gyllenhaal-find-a-way-in/

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silcon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2015-oscar-nomination-predictions/


Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/predictions/nominees/oscars/2015/oscars1142015


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2015/01/awardsdailys-final-oscar-predictions/