Ten Bets #2 / Update from Telluride / Focus Does a Do-Si-Do / The Distribs: Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions

TEN BETS #2

Here's an update on my latest guesses about what films might screen as a part of gthe 47th Telluride Film Festival.  First, a reminder of the this year's first Ten Bets list from June 29th:

10) Ammonite
9) Undine
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Forgotten We'll Be
6) Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Doc
5) Fireball
4) Nomadland
3) John Prine: Hello in There
2) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
1) There Is No Evil


And the current Ten Bets:

10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite

I still feel that the Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary is also a good bet for TFF #47.


UPDATE FROM TELLURIDE

Since my last post on Friday more information has come to light from Telluride.  Last week I had included a good deal of information from an Indiewire story that, among other items, suggested that Telluride's Town Council would meet and likely make some TFF related decisions on July 15th.  That appears to be incorrect.  The Parks Committee does have a meeting scheduled in Telluride on July 15th but the Town Council does not meet until July 21st.

According to sources in Telluride the agenda for that meeting has not been posted.

Meanwhile, Suzanne Cheavans writing in The Telluride Daily Planet reported on a San Miguel County Commissioners meeting from last week at which there was some discussion of TFF.  Her reporting has a couple of very interesting pieces of information including the revelation that school buildings in Telluride will not be available for the fest to use. That article is linked here.


FOCUS DOES A DO-SI-DO

Focus Features has sifted its lineup.  The distribution company announced that they have moved Let Him Go starring Kevin Costner and Diane Lane from Aug. 21st to Nov. 6th and that consequently that will displace Stillwater which had originally been scheduled on Nov. 6th.  No new date was announced for Stillwater which stars Matt Damon and Abigail Breslin.

Back on June 25th I assessed the Focus lineup for Telluride possibilities and had put Stillwater's chances at 50%.  At that time I didn't evaluate the chances for Let Him Go because of its pre-TFF release date.

The move reduces Stillwater's chances of being in the TFF #47 lineup in my estimation.  It goes from my original guestimate of 50% down to 20%.  Meanwhile, Let Him Go gets rated at a 25% chance of making the Telluride lineup.

As a side note, Focus Features did a survey of past TFF journalist attendees a month ago that centered on getting a feel for probable attendees for this year.

Here's more info from Deadline.


THE DISTRIBS: LIONSGATE/ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS

Lionsgate and affiliated film company Roadside Attractions have a solid appearance history with the Telluride Film Festival.

Lionsgate at Telluride:

2017: Hostiles
2016: La La Land
2013: All Is Lost

Roadside Attractions was repped at T-ride as follows over the past few years:

2019: Judy
2018: Trial by Fire
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2014: '71, Mommy, The Homesman
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2012: Stories We Tell
2011: Albert Nobbs
2010: Biutiful

Between the two affiliated companies they average about 1.2 films per year at TFF.

This year Lionsgate's best shot is Fatale starring two time Oscar winner and past TFF Tribute recipient Hilary Swank (TFF #41 in 2014).  Swank stars as the fatale of the title.  The film was originally scheduled for release in June but is now dated for Oct. 30th.  Doug Liman's Chaos Walking (with Charlie Kaufman credited as one of the writers of the screenplay) might be an outside possibility.  It's currently scheduled for release in January 2021.

Roadside Attractions only shot appears to be The Glorias from Julie Taymor.  The film looks at the life of feminist icon Gloria Steinem and stars Julianne Moore and Alicia Vikander.  The film played Sundance, however, and as a result is highly unlikely for Telluride...although...as weird as this year is...never say never.

Chances:

Fatele 30%
Chaos Walking 20%
The Glorias 15%

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The Distributors: Lionsgate Roadside and Saban / New Looks at Blade Runner 2049 / Marshall Has a Trailer

Good first Friday of summer 2017.


THE DISTRIBUTORS: LIONSGATE, ROADSIDE AND SABAN

Lionsgate, Roadside Attractions and Saban Films are an affiliated group of companies that have had an interesting and steadily successful run at Telluride over the past few years.  Their list of films that have played have featured the following films:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy
2015:
2016: La La Land

Lionsgate has Stephen Chbosky's Wonder starring Julia Roberts and David Gordon Green's Stronger with Jake Gyllenhaal which could both be looking at fall film fest slots.

Wonder is based on the novel by R.J. Placio and also features young actor Jacob Tremblay who charmed Telluride in Room in 2015.  Stronger is the true life tale of one of the survivors of the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013.

At the moment neither Roadside Attractions or Saban appear to independently have a film that would seem to be a Telluride possible.

Chances:

Wonder 35%
Stronger 30%.



NEW LOOKS AT BLADE RUNNER 2049

We got new glimpses yesterday of Denis Villenueve's Blade Runner 2049.  The film still seems like a stretch to me for TFF #44 but not a complete impossibility.

Here's the featurette via YouTube:

I've also linked some coverage from FirstShowing as well as from Indiewire.

MARSHALL HAS A TRAILER

I haven't gotten to a review of distributor Open Road Films yet (and I will eventually) but they made news this week with the release of a trailer for the biopic Marshall.  The film follows a crucial event in the life of a young Thurgood Marshall.  Chadwick Boseman stars as the young lawyer who would one day sit as a member of the Supreme Court.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

The film is directed by Reginald Hudlin and is set to open on Oct. 13th.

I have linked stories related to the release of the trailer below:

Indiewire

The Hollywood Reporter

The Film Stage.

That's your Friday.

More to come on Monday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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COMMENT to the BLOG

2016 Telluride Ten Bets #2 / Distribution: Lionsgate, Roadside and Saban / The Playlist Wish List for Fall Fests

Welcome to Friday and July, my friends...

2016 TELLURIDE TEN BETS #2

Here's last week's Ten Bets:

10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)


Not many changes this week... (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)

10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)

In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.


DISTRIBUTION: LIONSGATE, ROADSIDE AND SABAN

This combination of companies has had the fifth largest profile at Telluride over the past six years, though they were absent in 2015, they have averaged collectively 1.25 films/year.  Here's their collective track record since 2010:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy

So, what do they have lined up for 2016 that might be a Telluride temptation?

Lionsgate:

La La Land
American Pastoral

(I am personally discounting the chances of Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day and Hacksaw Ridge...though that decision could be premature).  Neither the Roadside Attractions or Saban Films banners have a film lined up currently that feels Telluride-ish so if this group has a shot at the fest this year it looks like one or both of these films from the Lionsgate group.

I think both are 50/50 prospects, although the announcement last week that La La Land was going to open Venice and be in competition makes me give it a slight edge.  Frankly, I'd like both films to SHOW but, just as easily, neither of them could.

On Monday, I'll look at specialty house Kino Lorber.

THE PLAYLIST WISH LIST FOR FALL FESTS

As they do annually, The Playlist posted their 50 film wish list for the fall festival season yesterday afternoon.  In it, they make some guesses about what films will play the fest circuit and which fests. Of the 50 films, they list nine as having a chance at Telluride.  They are:

20th Century Women
Arrival
Gold
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
La La Land
Lion
A Monster Calls
Sully
Trespass Against Us

From their list, if you've read this space much this summer, you will know that I think that 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls, La La Land and Lion all have a shot.  The others, not so much in my estimation.

In addition to the nine films they list with a Telluride potential, they list an additional 11 films that I think have a legitimate chance but that they don't connect to T-ride.  Included are: American Pastoral, Jackie, The Lost City of Z, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Oppenheimer Strategies, The Secret Scripture, Snowden, Una, A United Kingdom and War Machine.

It should be noted that over the past couple of years The Playlist "50 Wish List" has not been particularly prescient about Telluride guesses.  Last year they tagged 13 films in the article and only two panned out.  In 2014 it was one of six.  So, grain of salt people.

Here's the link to the complete post and its 50 films.

http://theplaylist.net/50-films-hope-see-2016-fall-festivals-20160630/#cb-content


That's a wrap for Friday and for the week.  Have a good weekend and come back Monday.

Contact MTFB at:

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Distribution: Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate, Saban Films/Ten Bets #3/The Playlist's 50 Film Wish List for Fall Film Fests

It's Friday, Friday, Friday...

DISTRIBUTION: ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS/LIONSGATE/SABAN FILMS

On this Friday I continue my extensive look at film distributors with pasttrack records at the Telluride Film Festival to suss out clues about what films might play at this year's 42nd edition of the fest. Today I'm looking at the inter-related companies of Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate and Saban Films.


Taking each as an individual entity, here are their recent Telluride histories, such as they are:

Roadside Attractions:

2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy


Lionsgate

2013: All is Lost

Saban:

2014: The Homesman



As you can see, Roadside has steadily increased its presence in the five year run since it first showed up at The SHOW in 2010.  Lionsgate and Saban have been peripherally involved on a couple of projects in that time.  So, what do these firms have in their collective quiver that might whet the appetite of T-ride programmers?

From Roadside: "A Hologram for the King", "Miss You Already", "The Sea of Trees", "Stonewall",

From Lionsgate: "A Hologram for the King", "Freeheld", "Miss You Already", "Sicario" "The Sea of Trees", "Genius"

Saban Films doesn't appear to have any film that looks Telluride-y, at least according to their IMDb listing.

It seems to me that Lionsgate actually has the strongest hand in as far as possible Telluride programming is concerned.  Probably the safest "bet" is Denis Villeneuve's "Sicario".  After that, it's all relatively doubtful for the remainder of the Roadside/Lionsgate/Saban field and even "Sicario" is iffy.

Chances:

"Sicario" 50%
"Freeheld" 40%
"A Hologram for the King" 35%
"Genius" 30%
"Miss You Already" 25%
"The Sea of Trees" 25%

Roadside, after a strong run last year, may be on the outside looking in.




TEN BETS #3

Last week's "Ten Bets" were:

10) "Queen of the Desert"
9) "Mountains May Depart"
8) "Suffragette"
7)  "13 Minutes"
6) "I Saw the Light"
5) "Youth"
4) "45 Years"
3) "Carol"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"

This week's updated "Ten Bets" for TFF #42:

10) "The Club"
9) "Suffragette"
8) "13 Minutes"
7) "Queen of the Desert"
6) "45 Years"
5) "I Saw the Light"
4) "Carol"
3) "Youth"
2) "Son of Saul"
1) "Dheepan"

Pablo Larrain's "The Club" bumps "Mountains May Depart"...but it's close.


THE PLAYLIST'S 50 FILM WISH LIST FOR THE FALL FILM FESTS

The Playlist was up yesterday with their annual "wish list" of films for the upcoming fall film fest.  The yearly "wish/prediction" post has come to be a staple for parsing here at MTFB...

So, here's what they "wish/predict" as it pertains to what films they feel might make the lineup for Telluride:

The first film referenced for Telluride is the Bradley Cooper starring, Weinstein Company distributed "Adam Jones".  The Playlist says Telluride is a "possibility".

Next is Scott Cooper's "Black Mass" starring Johnny Depp as mob murderer Whitey Bulger.  "Black Mass" is from Warners.  You may recall that I think Warners will have a film or two at Telluride this year's list.  The Playlist suggests that a "sneak preview" is "very possible".

The next Telluride mention is for Guillermo Del Toro's "Crimson Peak".  Read my earlier posts that suggest that Del Toro could follow the footsteps of his "three amigos hermanos" Alejandro Inarritu and Alfonso Cuaron.

Their next T-ride mention surprised me a bit as they suggest that Tom Hooper's "The Danish Girl" starring last year's Oscar Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne could play Telluride as Hooper could follow the path that his "The King's Speech" did to Oscar glory with a Telluride appearance in 2010.

"I Saw the Light" from director Marc Abraham ("Flash of Genius" T-ride 2008) is called a "maybe" for TFF #42.  It's a biopic about country music legend Hank Williams starring Tom Hiddleston and Elizabeth Olsen.  I think this film is a real Telluride possibility.

The next film that The Playlist gives a "maybe" is Derek Cianfrance's "The Light Between the Oceans" with Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander.  It's distribution is still up for grabs for the U.S.

Kenneth Lonergan's "Manchester-by-the -Sea" is suggested as a Telluride possible.  The film stars Michelle Williams and Kyle Chandler and is also looking for U.S> distribution.

Joe Nichols' "Midnight Special" starring Michael Shannon is termed a "good bet" and is another of the four Warners films that could make the trip to the San Juans.

The Playlist actually says that Jodie Foster's "Money Monster" starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts could make the Telluride program.  That would be cool.  Sony Pictures/TriStar are distributing.  (See my upcoming 2015 edition of "The Unified Clooney Theory" in a week or so).

David Gordon Green's "Our Brand is Crisis" is the third Warners film that the article says could make it to Telluride.  The film stars Sandra Bullock and is produce, in part, by Clooney (see "UCT" note above).

Sarah Gavron's "Suffragette" is said to be "expect(ed)" for Telluride after its announcement as a "European" premiere to open the London Film Fest.  The film stars Carey Mulligan and is distributed in the U.S. by Focus Features.

Richard Linklater's follow up to his critical darling "Boyhood" and the "spiritual sequel" to his classic "Dazed and Confused",
"That's What I'm Talking About" is called "very likely" for Telluride or Toronto or New York.

The last film that The Playlist lists Telluride as a possibility is "Truth" from director James Vanderbilt.  The post says that the film is "very likely" as it's from  Sony Pictures Classics.  The film stars Robert Redford as newsman Dan Rather and tells the story of his fall from grace at CBS News.

That's 13 of the 50 films listed in the post mentioning Telluride.

There are 37 other films (plus a bonus set at the end of the article) that The Playlist does not mention Telluride as a possibility.  Of those, I actually think that some DO have a shot.  For example:

Thomas Vintenberg's "The Commune"
Jean-Marc Vallee's "Demolition"
Quentin Tarantino's "The Hateful Eight"
Ron Howard's "In the Heart of the Sea"
Stephen Frears' "The Program"
Billy Ray's "Secret in Their Eyes"
Thomas McCarthy's "Spotlight"
Danny Boyles' "Steve Jobs"
Jay Roach's "Trumbo"
Justin Chadwick's "Tulip Fever"

are among The Playlist's 50 that they don't peg for a Telluride slot but that I think could play.

The only "Honorable Mentions" that they include that I feel have some shot at making Telluride is "Freeheld"

A lot to digest...

The complete post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/50-movies-on-our-fall-film-festival-wishlist-20150709

That's all for Friday.  Have a great weekend!  More on Monday...


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