Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Damien Chazelle's La La Land...opening Venice on Aug. 31 and coming soon to a SHOW near you, if you happen to be in Telluride, CO. over Labor Day weekend...dropped a new trailer and a new song as well yesterday as it ramps up to its World Premiere in a week.
Yes. I need to remember the above line from Star Wars. Every time I think, "Hey, you've gotten really good at this Telluride lineup game" something happens to remind me that I'm not as hot a shot as I think I am. To wit...
Yesterday's final Toronto International Film Festival announcement was notable not for the films that the new information suggests could play Telluride but wholly because of a couple of films that the new info suggests will NOT play in Telluride.
Both were listed as North American premieres and both are full length animated films. The least surprise of the two was My Life as a Courgette, an Annecy Animation winner that I thought had a reasonable chance of making the trip to southwest Colorado. Seems not.
The other was a stunning surprise, to me anyway, as Michael Dudok de Wit's The Red Turtle was announced as an N.A. preem. That's a film that I had pegged as a Telluride-likely since it appeared at Cannes in May. I've had it in the Ten Bets list for nine straight weeks.
Looks like I was...um...wrong.
Great kid, don't get cocky...
Other than those two nodes of knowledge, I couldn't find any other news in the last TIFF that suggested that any other films are IN for T-ride nor any other films that I thought might play that are nixed.
Here's the coverage of yesterday's TIFF announcement fromIndiewire
TONI ERDMANN IS A WINNER
Toni Erdmann did not win any official competition prize at the Cannes Film Festival in May, despite being generally regarded as the biggest critical success. It did, however, win the independent and not Cannes official FIPRESCI Prize. It also won the International Cinephile Award for Cannes (not an official Cannes award either).
Now, Maren Ade's film can add a further accolade to its arsenal. Toni Erdmann was named yesterday as the winner of the FIPREDSI Grand Prix as the Best Film of the year.
Toni Erdmann will almost certainly figure into the Foreign Language Oscar conversation this year and if it is as warmly received in Telluride in a few days as it was in Cannes, perhaps it sneaks into the this year's Best Picture conversation as well (remember, you read that here first, unless I'm wrong...then you can forget it).
I had Toni Erdmann listed as the #1 Bet on last week's Ten (Plus) Bets list. I'm pretty sure it's going to play. But remember what Han said to Luke. Your reminder is above.
Here is my weekly update focused on what appear to be the most probable films to play the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.
Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
15) Defying the Nazis (Ken Burns PBS Doc)
14) High Summer (Animated short)
13) The Red Turtle
12) Manchester by the Sea
11) Moonlight
10) Fire at Sea
9) Maudie
8) Frantz
7) Una
6) Things to Come
5) Neruda
4) Bleed for This
3) Arrival
2) La La Land
1) Toni Erdmann
And here is this week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Julieta
15) Graduation
14) High Summer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Moonlight
6) Bleed for This
5) Neruda
4) Things to Come
3) La La Land
2) Toni Erdmann
1) Arrival
Still in play: The Circle, The Promise. Miss Sloane. Hidden Figures, The Sense of an Ending, Exile, Peshmerga, Gold, Norman, Eternity, The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez, The Founder
MOONLIGHT TRAILER IMPRESSES
As I mentioned here yesterday, Barry Jenkins Moonlight (A24) got a trailer release late yesterday morning. Here it is from YouTube:
The response to the trailer was nothing short of rapturous. We may have a serious stealth Oscar player. Here's coverage of the trailer drop:
Despite The PLaylist's claim that the film is world premiering in Toronto, I'm still relatively confident it will actually screen at Telluride first. The story below underscores my belief.
TORONTO PLATFORM LINEUP PROVIDES CLUES
Toronto's International Film Festival revealed their competitive young film makers Platform section yesterday. Included in the list of films were two that have been on the TFF #43 radar. Pablo Larrain's Jackie, which I had concluded will not be making the trip from Venice to T-ride was listed as a North American Premiere thus buttressing my conclusion.
Barry Jenkins Moonlight was also named to the section and listed as an International Premiere, which, I believe indicates a film's first play outside its nation of origin which comports perfectly with a Telluride screening.
The complete Platform lineup and film descriptions are here:
A24 tweeted this poster/image yesterday for Barry Jenkins Moonlight. The film is near certainty to screen in Telluride. The film is getting some notice in awards chatter circles prior to being seen by the public and I've been hearing good buzz from people who have seen it.
Additionally, the word is that a trailer might be expected to drop for the film today as well. Look for that here tomorrow should it happen and check my Twitter account throughout the day as well (@Gort2).
Moonlight has been announced to screen at the New York Film Fest without a premiere designation which indicates a Telluride play. Further, Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells implied it strongly in a post from last Tuesday.
FOREIGN FILMS OSCAR SPECULATION AND TELLURIDE PLAYS
Clayton Davis and his crew at Awards Circuit have updates their Oscar predictions as of yesterday including an extensive look at pre-national submission guesses for Best Foreign Language Film.
I took a look at the list in the context of probable/possible films we could see at Telluride and here's what I came up with.
From the AC "Predicted Nominees" are two very probable T-ride players: Toni Erdmann and Graduation.
From the "Also in Contention" list: Julieta
From the "Other Possibilities" list: The Red Turtle.
Take a look at the complete list of predictions here:
Nigel Smith of Britain's The Guardian posted a list of 25 films that he suspects are Oscar contenders on Wednesday. Much like the above Foreign Language Film analysis, I've gone through Smith's list and searched out the films that are probable/possible Telluride players.
From his "Front-runners": La La Land, Arrival (and maybe The Founder and The Mercy)
Not included: Arrival, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight.
It's your annual call to rate the films you see at the Telluride Film Festival. MTFB is once again asking YOU to participate in The People's Telluride...a gathering of film ratings from the ticket buying public at the fest.
It's simple...rate the films you see on a 1 to 5 scale (1 being awful and 5 being masterpiece) and then send those to me via email: mpgort@gmail.com or michael_speech@hotmail.com OR via the comments section here on the blog or to my twitter account @Gort2.
I'll pull it all together and publish the results a couple of weeks after the fest is in the books.
ALSO...as has become a tradition...I will also be putting together The Professionals Telluride. I'll have more than a dozen industry pros weighing in with their ratings as well. People from The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire, Awards Daily, Awards Circuit, and many more will be participating.
The MTFB Ratings have provided an excellent snapshot of the reactions of the festival-goers to the program since 2012. Here's what they have looked like in the past:
The Professionals:
2012
1) Central Park Five-4.7
2) Argo-4.5
3) Stories We Tell- 4.3
4) The Sapphires 4.25
5) (Tie) Frances Ha and The Attack- 4.2
7) Rust and Bone- 4.0
8) The Iceman- 3.8
9) At Any Price- 3.7
10) (Tie) Amour and Baraka- 3.5
12) No- 3.4
14) (Tie) Hyde Park on Hudson and The Gatekeepers 3.0
15) Everyday- 2.8
2013
1) 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2) Blue is the Warmest Color (4.4)
3) Gravity (4.35)
4) Tim's Vermeer (4.3)
5) Nebraska (4.3)
6) All is Lost (4.2)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.1)
8) Starred Up (4.0)
9) The Past (3.9)
10) Labor Day (3.6)
11) Bethlehem (3.6)
12) Prisoners (3.5)
13) The Lunchbox (3.5)
14) Salinger (3.3)
15) The Unknown Known (3.3)
16) Palo Alto (3.2)
17) Tracks (3.2)
18) Under the Skin (3.1)
18) (tie) The Wind Rises (3.1)
20) The Invisible Woman (3.0)
2014
1)Birdman (4.72)
2)Foxcatcher (4.63)
3)’71 (4.25)
4)Wild Tales (4.20)
5)Leviathan (4.17)
6)Mr. Turner (4.10)
7)The Imitation Game (4.06)
8)Mommy (3.92)
9)Two Days, One Night (3.90)
10)The Homesman (3.80)
11)Red Army (3.67)
12)Madame Bovary (3.30)
13)Wild (3.21)
14) Rosewater (3.06) 2015
1) ) Son of Saul (4.44)
2) Anomalisa (4.42)
3) Spotlight (4.41)
4) Steve Jobs (4.31)
5) Beasts of No Nation (4.27)
6) Carol (4.11)
7) 45 Years (4.06)
8) Taxi (4.00)
9) Black Mass (3.85)
10) Time to Choose (3.57)
11) Room (3.50)
12) Suffragette (3.49)
13) He Named Me Malala (2.83)
The People's:
2012
1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70
4) The Act of Killing-4.41
5) Wadjda-4.2
6) Amour 4.17
7) Barbara- 4.17
8) The Sapphires-4.11
9) Frances Ha-4.07
10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00
12) Annecy Animation-3.83
13) The Central Park Five 3.75
14) (Tie) A Royal Affair and Corman's World-3.67
16) Rust and Bone-3.65
17) The Iceman- 3.61
18) The Gatekeepers-3.58
19) Superstar-3.50
20) Hyde Park on Hudson-3.33
21) No-3.21
22) Love, Marilyn-3.08
23) Ginger and Rosa-2.54
24) At Any Price-2.13
25) Everyday-2.08
26) Paradise, Love-1.1
2013
1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
11) Blue is the Warmest Color (3.75)
12) Tracks (3.64)
13) Prisoners (3.5)
14) Labor Day (3.40)
15) The Galapagos Affair: Satan Came to Eden (3.33)
16) Starred Up (3.25)
17) Palo Alto (3.20)
18) The Invisible Woman (3.19)
19) Before the Winter Chill (2.67)
20) The Unknown Known (2.43)
21) Under the Skin (2.0)
2014
1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)
4) Foxcatcher (4.20)
5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)
6) '71 (3.90)
7) Red Army (3.63)
8) Wild (Tie 3.50)
8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)
8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)
11) 99 Homes (3.47)
12) Rosewater (3.46)
13) Two Days, One Night (3.31)
14) Mr. Turner (3.00)
15) Madame Bovary (2.88)
16) The Homesman (2.58)
2015
1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
11) 45 Years (3.78)
12) Suffragette (3.58)
13) He Named Me Malala (3.39)
14) Anomalisa (3.36)
It seems pretty clear that you want your film to finish second in The People's ratings as the Oscar for Best Picture has gone to the film that finished with that rating each of the last four years:
12- Argo
13- 12 Years a Slave
14- Birdman
15- Spotlight
So what film will be #2 for The People this year?
That's all for Thursday. More tomorrow including an update Ten (Plus) Bets for TFF #43.
Contact MTFB at:
mpgort@gmail.com
OR on Twitter @Gort2
OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:
Let's start off with this week's Ten Bets update and the last one we'll have prior to next Tuesday's first wave of films announced for the Toronto International Film Festival and Thursday's Venice Film Fest announcement.
TFF #43 TEN BETS #5
Last week's Ten Bets:
10) The Unknown Girl
9) Things to Come
8) Wilson
7) La La Land
6) American Honey
5) Moonlight
4) The Red Turtle
3) Toni Erdmann
2) Fire at Sea
1) The Salesman
This week's Ten Bets:
10) The Unknown Girl
9) Arrival
8) Things to Come
7) American Honey
6) Moonlight
5) La La Land
4) The Salesman
3) Toni Erdmann
2) The Red Turtle
1) Fire at Sea
Close: Lion, Aquarius, Denial, A Monster Calls, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Dog Eat Dog, The Sense of an Ending.
A couple of notes: as of this writing (7:00 am on Fri. 7/22) I am really back and forth about the Dardenne Brothers The Unknown Girl. I am continuing to include it in the Ten Bets because of the frequency that the brothers have had films make the T-ride lineup but I honestly wouldn't be stunned if it is announced Tuesday for TIFF as a North American premiere.
I have The Weinstein's Lion just under the Ten Bets again this week although the turmoil and rumors surrounding TWC have me wondering if any TWC film will play Telluride this year. The lack of a TWC title would be incredibly odd as they've played at least one film in the Telluride lineup every year that I've attended. Still, of the four films that are possible ( Lion, The Founder, Gold, HHhH), none of them seems to be making a ton of pre-fest noise. Meanwhile, rumors of financial difficulties also are dogging TWC right now which further muddies the picture and may explain some of the release date shifting that has occurred. See below...
RULES FESTING?
Remember yesterday's post that included the analysis of The Guardian's 40 Films...Predict...Fests" article? You might have noticed that Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply was included among The Guardian's "Dead Cert(ain)" list. I suggested that its inclusion was intriguing because of Beatty's reported reluctance to play the film at Festivals.
Then, later in the day yesterday, a post popped up on Indiewire from Anne Thompson assessing the film's Oscar potential. In it Thompson makes two references to the film making a play at fall film fests. First writing that the film is
"...the film is ready to be unveiled at film festivals this fall"
And then late in the article Anne writes:
"Whether Rules Don't Apply (November 23) delivers both commercially and artistically will be revealed at the fall festivals."
You might say..."well, Mikey...maybe it just plays New York." And I'd say, that makes a lot of sense, but Thompson pretty clearly uses the plural "festivals" twice.
One other tidbit, Thompson compares the film in some respects to four films, two of which are The Artist and Birdman. Both films played Telluride and won the Oscar for Best Picture.
I have to wonder if Thompson and The Guardian know more than we do...
TWC-Dimension announced a release date for Stephen Gaghan's Gold starring Matthew McConnaughey. The film will be opening on Dec. 25 making it eligible for Oscar consideration. TWC earlier this week moved its Michael Keaton starring The Founder off its August date and into December as well with a limited release on 12/16 and a wider rollout on Jan. 20. They also moved Tulip Fever starring Alicia Vikander to 2017. That film has been booted around a good deal as well.
As of this morning TWC has these four films in the chute for between now and the end of the year:
Lion (11/25)
Gold (12/15)
The Founder (12/16 and 1/20/17)
HHhH (Undetermined 2016 date)
It's all a dance amid speculation that The Weinstein Company is having some money trouble.
Check out this story and interview with Harvey Weinstein from The Hollywood Reporter:
Indiewire reported yesterday that Denis Villenueve's Arrival and Tom Ford's Nocturnal Animals are likely to be named as films to play the Venice Film Fest next week. They would join Damien Chazelle's La La Land which has already been announced as the opener.
All three films could conceivably make the leap between Venice and Telluride.
That's it for this week. Monday's post will include news about a likely animation title for TFF #43 and our annual look at TFF's "Usual Suspects" and who among them might be returning with projects for this year's SHOW.
Contact MTFB at:
mpgort@gmail.com
OR on Twitter @Gort2
OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:
Welcome back from the weekend and a good Monday to you...
EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH
After a two day respite, MTFB returns to continue our look at European production companies who have had a significant past presence at the Telluride Film Festival. Today's producer is...
ARTE FRANCE CINEMA
Their track record looks like this:
2003: Dogville
2004: The Weeping Meadow
2005: The Child, Cache, Paradise Now
2006: Day Night Day Night
2008: O'Horten
2011: Le Havre, Goodbye First Love
2012:
2013: Le Maison de la Radio, The Lunchbox
2014: Diplomacy
2015: No films
But 2016 is chock full of TFF #43 possibilities: Salt and Fire, The Salesman, Peshmerga, The Red Turtle, Slack Bay, Things to Come and Fire at Sea. My bet is that Arte France is in Telluride in 2016 with at least three films and maybe more.
DAUGHTER OF THE DAWN
You may recall from three years ago that I was dead certain that a silent film featuring Native American actors would play T-ride. That didn't pan out. But the film, Daughter Before the Dawn is set for Blue Ray release soon. Ioncinema covers/reviews the release:
Amid buzz that the Sundance hit, Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation could play Telluride came another arresting image for the film over the weekend in the form of a new trailer and poster (above) for the film. Coverage is here:
We're a couple of weeks away from the dual announcements of the first wave of Toronto films and the majority of films that will play the Venice fest and both of those lists will begin to give us our first real opportunity to do some inductive reasoning and a good idea of some of the Telluride lineup. Until then, you're stuck with my best guesses.
Last week's Ten Bets:
10) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)
9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
8) The Unknown Girl (Dardenne Brothers, TBA)
7) The Red Turtle, Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, Y+TBA)
4) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
3) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, 12/9)
1) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
This week's Ten Bets:
10) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance Selects, TBA) 9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance Selects, TBA) 8) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
7) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
5) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
4) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, 12/25)
2) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen, 12/9)
Close: Lion, American Pastoral, Salt and Fire, A United Kingdom, Aquarius, Journey Through French Cinema, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson, Bleed for This, Arrival.
EURO PRODUCERS PART TWO: THE FRENCH- STUDIOCANAL
Over the past 13 years, these films have played Telluride while having some production assistance from StudioCanal:
2003: Young Adam, Love Me If You Dare
2005: Cache
2006: Indigines, Catch a Fire
2010: The Princess of Montpensier
2012: Love, Marilyn
2013: Inside Llewyn Davis
2015: He Named Me Malala
In the hopper: The Lost City of Z, Gold, From the Land of the Moon. We could see any, all or none of these.
THE RULES DON'T APPLY FOR THE RULES DON'T APPLY
Warren Beatty's new film...he says won't be in a fall film fest. Warren Beatty is a trickster. He's probably not spoofing us...but he might be.
And if he is?
Honestly, the most likely spots would be AFI and New York. Venice and then Toronto. Telluride would be probably the last possibility...which makes it possible if Beatty is playing a game. Do I think it's coming? Nope. But what if it did?
Anyway...the folks at 20th Century Fox released a trailer for the film early yesterday morning. Here it is from YouTube:
10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.
Now here's this week's latest iteration of ten films that I'm betting make the TFF #43 lineup.
10) La La Land (Chazelle, Lionsgate, 12/2)
9) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
8) The Unknown Girl (Dardenne Brothers, TBA)
7) The Red Turtle, Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, Y+TBA)
4) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
3) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, 12/9)
1) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
Close: Loving, Lion. American Pastoral, Salt and Fire, A United Kingdom, Aquarius, The Birth of a Nation, Journey Through French Cinema, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls at Parties, Paterson.
DISTRIBUTION ODDS AND ENDS
Taking a last stroll through some distribution houses with a limited Telluride profile over the past decade and what they might offer to the festival.
MAGNOLIA- Past T-ride: 2006-Severance, 2007-Terror's Advocate, A Thousand Years of Good Prayers, Redacted, 2012-The Hunt, A Royal Affair, 2015-Viva
Potential for 2016- Harry Benson;Shoot First 30%
SAMUEL GOLDWYN- Past T-ride: 2008-American Violet, 2011-Diana Vreeland: The Eye Has to Travel, The Island President
Potential for 2016- Finding Altamira and Spirit of the Game both 25%
OSCILLOSCOPE- Past T-ride: 2008-Kisses, 2011- We Need to Talk About Kevin
Potential for 2016- One Week and a Day. Chances 30%
ADOPT FILMS- Past T-ride: 2012- Barbara, 2013- Bethlehem
Potential for 2016- Beyond the Mountains and the Hills Chances 40%
That's the 2016 look at distribution outlets. Next Monday I'll start looking at overseas production companies and what that might tell us about Telluride #43.
Also, this reminder. Toronto's first wave announcement is coming on July 26 and Venice's comes July 28. That should give us some serious insight.
SORT OF A TRAILER FOR HOW TO TALK TO GIRLS
Elle Fanning photo via The Hollywood Reporter
No, it's not an actual trailer for the film that we're keeping on the Telluride radar because it's in the A24 wheelhouse. What it is is a teaser for the graphic novelization of the original Neil Gaiman story. So, though it's not for the film...it's kind of close.
Find the teaser embedded in this story from The Hollywood Reporter:
10) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
9) Loving (Nichols, Focus, 11/4)
8) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
7) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, TBA)
6) American Honey (Arnold, A24, TBA)
5) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
4) The Unknown Girl (The Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) The Salesman (Fahradi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
1) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
Not many changes this week... (Director, Distributor and U.S. release date-if known-in parenthesis)
10) Things to Come (Hansen-Love, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
9) Lion (Davis, TWC, 11/25)
8) Moonlight (Jenkins, A24, 10/21)
7) Fire at Sea (Rosi, Kino Lorber, TBA)
6) The Red Turtle (Dudok de Wit, SPC, TBA)
5) The Unknown Girl (Dardennes, Sundance/IFC, TBA)
4) American Honey (Arnold, A24, 9/30)
3) Toni Erdmann (Ade, SPC, TBA)
2) Wilson (Johnson, Fox Searchlight, TBA)
1) The Salesman (Farhadi, Amazon/Cohen Media, TBA)
In the close category: American Pastoral, Loving, La La Land, A United Kingdom, Salt and Fire, Journey Through French Cinema, Aquarius, Birth of a Nation.
DISTRIBUTION: LIONSGATE, ROADSIDE AND SABAN
This combination of companies has had the fifth largest profile at Telluride over the past six years, though they were absent in 2015, they have averaged collectively 1.25 films/year. Here's their collective track record since 2010:
2010: Biutiful
2011: Albert Nobbs
2012: Stories We Tell
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2014: '71, The Homesman, Mommy
So, what do they have lined up for 2016 that might be a Telluride temptation?
Lionsgate:
La La Land
American Pastoral
(I am personally discounting the chances of Deepwater Horizon, Patriots Day and Hacksaw Ridge...though that decision could be premature). Neither the Roadside Attractions or Saban Films banners have a film lined up currently that feels Telluride-ish so if this group has a shot at the fest this year it looks like one or both of these films from the Lionsgate group.
I think both are 50/50 prospects, although the announcement last week that La La Land was going to open Venice and be in competition makes me give it a slight edge. Frankly, I'd like both films to SHOW but, just as easily, neither of them could.
On Monday, I'll look at specialty house Kino Lorber.
THE PLAYLIST WISH LIST FOR FALL FESTS
As they do annually, The Playlist posted their 50 film wish list for the fall festival season yesterday afternoon. In it, they make some guesses about what films will play the fest circuit and which fests. Of the 50 films, they list nine as having a chance at Telluride. They are:
20th Century Women
Arrival
Gold
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
La La Land
Lion
A Monster Calls
Sully
Trespass Against Us
From their list, if you've read this space much this summer, you will know that I think that 20th Century Women, How to Talk to Girls, La La Land and Lion all have a shot. The others, not so much in my estimation.
In addition to the nine films they list with a Telluride potential, they list an additional 11 films that I think have a legitimate chance but that they don't connect to T-ride. Included are: American Pastoral, Jackie, The Lost City of Z, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals, The Oppenheimer Strategies, The Secret Scripture, Snowden, Una, A United Kingdom and War Machine.
It should be noted that over the past couple of years The Playlist "50 Wish List" has not been particularly prescient about Telluride guesses. Last year they tagged 13 films in the article and only two panned out. In 2014 it was one of six. So, grain of salt people.
Here's the link to the complete post and its 50 films.
Each year at about this time I begin to break down three categories of film makers to look at the most probable of Telluride Film Fest lineup choices. Those categories being Overseas Producers, The "Usual Suspects"...people with a very clear history with the fest and Distirbutors.
Today I begin the breakdown of distribution companies that have had films play at Telluride. It's worth noting that not every film that makes the lineup each year has a distribution deal in place when it screens in Telluride but most do and by looking at a distribs past record and what they have in their stable, we can try to make some educated guesses about what films might make the trip to southwest Colorado over the Labor Day weekend.
So we begin by looking at Sony Pictures Classics.
SPC has historically been the largest distribution presence at Telluride for more than a decade and it's really not even close. No other company has as long and consistent track record of having films selected for The SHOW program as Sony Pictures Classics.
Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 13 years:
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)
It was truly weird to see SPC with only one film on the Telluride list last year. It's just uncharacteristic for a company that has averaged around five films at TFF over the past decade-plus. I suspect that last year will prove to be an anomaly and that SPC will be back to Telluride with a larger set of films. Perhaps not the five that they have averaged, however.
So, what does SPC have and will those films play at Telluride?
According to IMDb these are the films that SPC currently has in place for distribution that seem most likely:
Elle
Julieta
The Red Turtle
Toni Erdmann
All four of these films played Cannes in May.
Any other SPC films scheduled for 2016 have already opened or played Sundance.
My expectations are very high on both The Red Turtle and Toni Erdmann. I had them on last Friday's first Ten Bets list for this year at #8 and #3 respectively.
Both Elle and Julieta could make the TFF #43 lineup as well but I feel both are less likely. Alomdovar hasn't had a film play TFF since 2006's Volver and despite Elle's critical reception at Cannes, which was very good, I still can't bring myself to buy into a Paul Verhoeven film at T-ride. Maybe I'm just a snob.
As to Toni Erdmann and The Red Turtle...I feel relatively confident that their critical reception at Cannes makes them likely .
Toni Erdmann trailer with English subs via YouTube
Chances for each:
Toni Erdmann-80%
The Red Turtle-80%
Elle- 50%
Julieta-25%
Tomorrow a look at Sundance Selects/IFC Films.
WELLS GIVES US HINTS
I was looking through some posts here and there over the weekend and ran across two recent entries from Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere that give serious insight to at least one potential Telluride selection and maybe two.
First, in a post from June 20 titled Open Letter to Personal Shopper Loyalists Wells reveals that he has been told that TFF's directors weren't that keen on the film. Quoting now from the post:
"...two or three days ago Tom Luddy and Julie Huntsinger of the Telluride Film Festival were telling me how they didn't care for it (Personal Shopper)".
Taken at face value, it seems that we aren't probably going to see that film at the Labor Day soiree in Telluride.
Additionally, in a post from HE on June 24 titled I Wasn't Much, Now I Feel Differently Wells talks about Ewan McGregor's directing debut American Pastoral. The film was featured here on MTFB last week when it released its first trailer.
Wells suggests that the film might be Telluride material at the end of his piece. I hadn't even had it really on my radar until last week's look. Now I'm thinking that it's a real possibility.
The Wells mention, the fact that it's under the Lionsgate banner for distribution...which doesn't make it a lock but also doesn't rule it out...the fact that Kris Tapley (InContention/Variety) mentioned last week on Twitter that he's "Been hearing this was amazing since like March" and that it "Could be a real surprise later this season." Finally, the film is slated to open on Oct. 21st which would certainly allow for plays at any of the big fall fests : Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York.
As of this post, I'm warming to the notion that American Pastoral is a now a real candidate for Telluride inclusion.
Last week I posted Telluride predictions from film fan and expert prognosticator Jason Osiason. Since then Jason has added a couple of films to his "Likely" for Telluride list. His original list looked like this:
20th Century Women
Aquarius
Arrival
Bleed for This
Elle
Fire at Sea
Loving
Manchester-by-the -Sea
Moonlight
Risk
The Eagle Huntress
The Red Turtle
The Salesman
Things to Come
Toni Erdmann
Wilson
How to Talk to Girls at Parties
He also lists as "possible":
Good Time
My Life as a Courgette (just won the top prize at the Annecy Fest)
Neruda
Nocturnal Animals
The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez
The Meyerowitz Stories
The Son of Joseph
The Mercy
Birth of a Nation
Girl on a Train
Since that post, Osiason has communicated that he also feels that Andrea Arnold's American Honey is likely as is Keith Maitland's Tower.
That's a wrap for this Monday. Tune in again tomorrow as I take a look at what Sundance Selects and IFC have that could make a play at this year's SHOW.
Contact MTFB at:
mpgort@gmail.com
OR on Twitter @Gort2
OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:
