Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Welcome back from the weekend and a good Monday to you...
EURO PRODUCERS: THE FRENCH
After a two day respite, MTFB returns to continue our look at European production companies who have had a significant past presence at the Telluride Film Festival. Today's producer is...
ARTE FRANCE CINEMA
Their track record looks like this:
2003: Dogville
2004: The Weeping Meadow
2005: The Child, Cache, Paradise Now
2006: Day Night Day Night
2008: O'Horten
2011: Le Havre, Goodbye First Love
2012:
2013: Le Maison de la Radio, The Lunchbox
2014: Diplomacy
2015: No films
But 2016 is chock full of TFF #43 possibilities: Salt and Fire, The Salesman, Peshmerga, The Red Turtle, Slack Bay, Things to Come and Fire at Sea. My bet is that Arte France is in Telluride in 2016 with at least three films and maybe more.
DAUGHTER OF THE DAWN
You may recall from three years ago that I was dead certain that a silent film featuring Native American actors would play T-ride. That didn't pan out. But the film, Daughter Before the Dawn is set for Blue Ray release soon. Ioncinema covers/reviews the release:
Amid buzz that the Sundance hit, Nate Parker's Birth of a Nation could play Telluride came another arresting image for the film over the weekend in the form of a new trailer and poster (above) for the film. Coverage is here:
1) Nebraska
2) The Past
3) Daughter of the Dawn
4) Aguirre: The Wrath of God
5) The Immigrant
6) Life Itself
7) The Invisible Woman
8) Labor Day
9) 12 Years a Slave
10) Like Father, Like Son
This week's Ten Bets:
1) Nebraska
2) The Invisible Woman
3) The Past
4) The Unknown Known
5) A Story of Children and Film
6) Daughter of the Dawn
7) The Immigrant
8) Aguirre: The Wrath of God
9) Labor Day
10) The Selfish Giant
Note: With the removal of "Life Itself" (see Tuesday's blog post) a spot opened up. It wasn't difficult to fill. I added "The Unknown Known" as its replacement on the list. "
"A Story of Children and Film" replaces "12 Years a Slave", though I still am fairly bullish that we'll see the McQueen film.
"The Selfish Giant" replaces "Like Father Like Son " but the two of them are part of four Sundance Selects films any or all of which might be in Telluride. The other two being "Blue is the Warmest Color" and "Young and Beautiful". They seem virtually interchangeable in as far as the "Ten Bets" list is concerned and probably will be for the next few weeks unless I garner some compelling evidence that one has a greater chance than the others.
THE USUAL SUSPECTS PART TWO
Yesterday I began a three part series focusing on some of the Telluride "Usual Suspects" and what they might have in store for this year's festival. In Part One I mentioned Mark Cousins, Werner Herzog, Ken Burns and Alexander Payne
I today's Part Two we begin with Steve McQueen. McQueen certainly has one of the higher profile films of the fall season awaiting. His "12 Years a Slave" is expected to make a lot of noise. McQueen's thrid feature follows his "Hunger" and "Shame" which both played at Telluride. I fully expect, as do many others, that "12 Years" will be a part of the Venice lineup. The question becomes whether the film follows the path "Shame" did as it also played Venice...Telluride...Toronto and New York.
For awhile, I thought that I was the only one that thought that "12 Years" might follow the "Shame" path...but I have since discovered that there are a number of others who think it could happen. Enough so that "12 Years" made it onto my initial "Ten Bets" list last week.
Usual Suspect #6 today: Roger Michell. The South African born director appears at T-ride with some frequency. Last year he had "Hyde Park on Hudson". In prior years he has been included with "Venus"and "Enduring Love". Michell's new film "Le weekend" stars Jeff Goldblum (present in Telluride in 2008 for "Adam Resurrected"), Jim Broadbent and Lindsay Duncan.
Frankly, I could see this being on the SHOW list, but for some reason, I'm rather dubious. The U.S. distributor is Music Box Films... which distributed Herzog's "Happy People: A Year in the Taiga" in 2010" so there is some tenuous history there. Still, I'm doubtful. Put "Le Weekend's chances at 25%.
Usual Suspect #7 is Errol Morris. Errol plays in Telluride a good bit too. Last year as a producer on "The Act of Killig" In 2010: "Tabloid". "Fog of War" in 2003. Morris has a go at his first directing gig of a fictional work with "Freezing People is Easy" starring Paul Rudd, Owen Wilson and Christopher Walken. But it doesn't seem to be ready. What does seem to be ready is the Morris directed documentary about Donald Rumsfeld: "The Unknown Known: The Life and Times of Donald Rumsfeld'. I think you can almost count on it being on the playlist for TFF #40.
And you have to wonder a little...when Morris did "Fog of War" in 2003, his subject, Robert McNamara came along. Any chance Rumsfeld would?
Usual Suspect #8: Stephen Frears: The Brit director was last represented in Telluride with "Tamara Drewe". He was tributed in 1987 along with a screening of "Sammy and Rosie Get Laid". His latest project has "prestige" smeared all over it. Perpetual Oscar nominee Judi Dench stars in "Philomena" which also has The Weinstein Company as its distributor.
I think it seems like about a 40% chance of playing this year.
Tomorrow, the final four of "The Usual Suspects".
DOES NO "BLUE" CHANGES THE FOREIGN OSCAR RACE?
This week's revelation that Cannes Palme d"Or winner "Blue is the Warmest Color" won't be eligible for the French entry for the Foreign Language Oscar (due to its release schedule) has some wondering how or if it will shape the race for that trophy.
I think it almost certainly does and that has major implications for Telluride's Film Festival. TFF almost always is the U.S. launching pad for any number of films from around the world that have Foreign Oscar designs. Incontention/HitFix's Kristopher Tapley tackled that issue this week in this post:
Among the films he mentions that could well be in the Telluride baliwick are:
"The Past"
"Mood Indigo"
"Child's Pose" (which is really increasing its hold on my thinking as another possible entrant from the Berlin Fest where it won The Golden Bear.)
"The Great Beauty"
"Miele"
"Gloria"
and "like Father Like Son"
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The 80,000th view of Michael's Telluride Film Blog happened sometime yesterday. 75,000 happened on May 30. It crossed the 40,000 threshold last summer on July 16. I know that these are really "small potato" numbers in the grand scheme of the internet but I am continually amazed and grateful that the viewership seems to get a little bigger as time goes on. Thanks to all of you who drop in from time to time to see what rambling discourse might be here.
NEW THEORY
So I emailed the TFF Press staff this week to ask them why we haven't heard about a guest director yet. I pointed out that normally we have an announcement about that by the end of June. The response I got was essentially...hold on, it's coming...don't know when.
It got me to thinking, which is often a dangerous thing. As I was thinking, I remembered back to the story from three weeks ago about the Fests L.A. party and its guests. One attendee's name that seemed unusual was "Mad Man" head honcho Matthew Weiner. Now, Weiner has a film that is set to roll out this fall, "You Are Here". It's his first feature film. He wrote and directed. It stars Melissa Rauch, Owen Wilson and Zach Galifinakis.
My assumption was that his presence at the party meant one of two things...either "You Are Here" is playing at the fest or Weiner's likes parties.
But yesterday the third possibility hit me...could Weiner BE this year's guest director???
I think that makes some sense. I'd go a step further and suggest that his participation as a Guest Director wouldn't preclude him programming his own film.
Today I begin a three part series about "The Usual Suspects". Not the film, though it IS fantastic. No. What I'm referring to are the company of film makers and film biz pros, actors, directors and others that seem to appear as a part of the Telluride Film Festival with some frequency. The reason: paying attention to these "Usual Suspects" can often provide solid clues as to films that may show at The SHOW.
Just yesterday I posted the Mark Cousins story that suggests that his most recent work "A Story of Children and Film" is a likely title for TFF #40. That's largely because Cousins has been on the T-ride slate for 3 of the last 4 years and has this new project ready...and it was also well received at Cannes. Cousins has made it onto the list of "The Usual Suspects". It's a surprisingly lengthy list, currently 35 names.
Some people don't stay on the list...in its early days, Francis Ford Coppola and Martin Scorsese would have probably been on a "usual suspects" list. They haven't been a part of a Telluride fest in years...so they're no longer on the list.
Some people go on and off...Buck Henry and Peter Bogdanovich are good examples.
Certainly not every one of the 35 currently on my list have projects every year but with that many people, there are usually plenty of "Usual Suspects" to contemplate.
In addition to Cousins, two of the most "usual" are Werner Herzog and Ken Burns. They're festival fixtures and almost always have some project that is possible for inclusion. In addition, Herzog will have the new 650 seat venue in Town Park christened in his honor. So you have to believe Herzog will be represented by film or films. My bet is the recently restored "Aguirre: Wrath of God" that is currently being screened in England.
Burns is said to be involved with the restored silent film "Daughter of the Dawn" which I expect to be a part of the TFF #40 lineup.
Another of the most recent "Usuals" is Alexander Payne who has Guest Directed, shown his own work and has scouted and aided in programming. All this coming in the last few years. I'm very confident his new film, "Nebraska" will make this year's program.
There are another 8 "Usual Suspects" that I think have a shot at being involved with a film at this year's SHOW and I'll be looking at them in "The Usual Suspects Parts Two and Three" over the next two days.
For the third straight year here is the first stab at guessing ten films that will play at Telluride this year.
Last year's initial "Ten Bets" had 5 films that actually made the grade: "Amour", "Rust and Bone", "No", "Midnight's Children" and "Hyde Park on Hudson". The 2011 list was actually much better with 8 of that initial list showing at the SHOW: "The Descendants:, "The Artist", "The Kid with a Bike", "Le Havre", Restored : "A Trip to the Moon", "Into the Abyss", "We Have to Talk About Kevin" and "Shame".
So, with hope that I can return to my 2011 form, here are "Ten Bets":
1) "Nebraska": Alexander Payne's road dramedy with Bruce Dern and Will Forte. Payne's "Descendants" was the #1 bet to start 2011's "Ten Bets" and his follow up starts in the same position for 2013.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1821549/?ref_=sr_1
2) "The Past": My bet is that Asghar Farhadi (and SPC) return to Telluride with this relationship drama follow-up to his brilliant "A Separation". Berenice Bejo stars...and could be a Best Actress contender. Perhaps she'll come to T-ride as her husband Michel Hazanavicius did with "The Artist" 2 years ago.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2404461/?ref_=sr_1
4) "Aguirre: The Wrath of God": Friend of the blog Christopher Schiller mentioned this as a possibility and it makes too much sense. The new restoration of the 1972 film played at Cannes and, of course, was directed by Telluride legend Werner Herzog. Additionally, Herzog will have the new 650 seat theater (hockey pavilion converted to cinema) named in his honor as part of this year's 40th wing ding. What do you bet that "The Zog" (my name for the new theater) opens with this as its first film? Sounds about right to me.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068182/?ref_=sr_1
5) "The Immigrant": James Gray directs and co-wrote the script. It stars Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Renner and Joaquin Phoenix. TFF #39 attendees saw a few minutes of this last year as part of the tribute to Cotillard with Mr. Gray in attendance. My bet is that they had this year's fest slot settled on at that point. Further evidence? Gray's presence at Telluride's Hollywood soiree a few weeks back.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1951181/?ref_=sr_1
7) "The Invisible Woman": Earlier this week as I was analyzing Sony Pictures Classics slate of potential films I mentioned Ralph Fiennes "The Invisible Women" was iffy since its announced release date is Feb. 2014 in Britain. My speculation was that seemed like a long time after TFF...but I did conclude by saying that I hadn't completely ruled it out. Good for me as you will see below. For this spot in the blog...let's just say, the film that focuses on Charles Dickens and his secret lover looks likely now
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1700845/?ref_=sr_1
8) "Labor Day": I'm betting that Jason Reitman returns. After "Juno" and "Up in the Air" both played here, Reitman's last film "Young Adult" did not. I'm guessing that Reitman returns to the San Juans with this latest film that stars Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1967545/?ref_=sr_1
9) "12 Years a Slave": I admit, my guess here is based purely on the fact that Steve McQueen's previous efforts, "Hunger" and "Shame" both appeared at Telluride. It's also in the Fox Searchlight wheelhouse. A lot of smart people think it will play Venice and I haven't found anyone, besides myself, who has it going to Telluride. But remember, "Shame" played both Venice and T-ride. So put it at #8 and hope.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2024544/
10) "Like Father, Like Son": Well received at Cannes and under the Sundance Selects umbrella. The film focuses on the choice one man must make when it is discovered that his son was accidentally switched at birth and that another boy is actually his own.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2331143/?ref_=ttco_co_tt
On the edge: Sundance Selects other Cannes films including Palme d'Or winner "Blue is the Warmest Color", "The Selfish Giant" and "Young and Beautiful". SPC's "Only Lovers Left Alive", "The Lunchbox" and "For No Good Reason". Bertrand Tavernier's new film "Quai d'Orsay", Errol Morris's Donald Rumsfeld documentary "The Unkonwn Known". TWC's "One Chance", "Philomena" and "Salinger". Also, don't forget "Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner's film directing debut "You Are Here".
Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of months.
FOX SEARCHLIGHT AT TELLURIDE
Fox Searchlight has a hit and miss history with the Telluride Film Festival over the past decade. It's been a substantial player some years and has been absent in others. Here's the FS presence at T-ride for the past ten years:
2003:
2004: Kinsey
2005: Bee Season
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake
2007: Juno, The Savages
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009:
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Millions
2011: Shame, The Descendants
2012:
13 films in ten years. The highwater mark coming in 2010 with 4 films on the SHOW list but '03, '09 and '12 with no films at all. Looking at their current lineup of films purportedly ready:
"12 Years a Slave"
"Black Nativity"
and "Baggage Claim"
Of them, only "12 Years" seems like a solid Telluride pick what with director Steve McQueen's past with the festival. I think "Baggage Claim" is really unlikely. "Black Nativity" is really an intriguing possibility. It's described as a "contemporary adaptation of Langston Hughes celebrated play" and is adapted and directed by Kasi Lemmons whose previous directing crdits include "Talk to Me", "The Caveman's Valentine" and "Eve's Bayou". I could see this being on the TFF list. Notice also, that Fox Searchlight hasn't gone two straight years without some presence at the SHOW.
Ralph Fiennes "Invisible Woman" has always seemed like a possible Telluride film but, as I said above and earlier this week, its announced UK release date of Feb. 7, 2014 gave me pause. However, I'm not pausing any more. The London Daily Mail/Mail Online let slip yesterday that the film will play at TFF #40 with actress Felicty Jones in attendance.
My only question is "Will Fiennes attend?" I'm hoping that answer is "yes".
REMEMBERING BERT STERN
Here's a remembrance of the famed photographer and sometime film director that was a part of Telluride's salute to him two years ago: "Becoming Bert Stern". He died on Tuesday.
Good Wednesday to All...2 days...1 day...if you've been reading...you know.
WELCOME
And by that I mean that you are welcome to attend the Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW" at 5:00pm Friday at The River Club, 550 Depot in Telluride for a conversation about this year's festival lineup, the blog...and whatever else might come up. Hosts Mitzi and Larry Mallard will open The River Club's doors and provide some drinks and snacks...come by...say hello!
LEANING TOWARDS...
Coming down the stretch this week and there seems fairly strong buzz/indications that we almost certainly can count on Ben Affleck's "Argo", Brian DePalma's "Passion" and Walter Salles "On the Road". All three have been on the MTFB radar and "Argo" was listed Monday on the "Additional Ten Bets" List at #11. These three join "Rust and Bone", "Hyde Park on Hudson", "The Central Park Five", "Frances Ha', "Ginger and Rosa" and "Midnight's Children" as virtual certainties for this weekend.
What this means is that I will, in fact, do a final "Ten Bets" tomorrow and post it before I get in the car and head to the mountains.
VENICE FILMS???
The Venice Film Festival opens today with Mira Nair's "The Reluctant Fundamentalist" and if the past is any guide , somewhere between 2-4 films will cross over from Venice to southwest Colorado. The most likely possibilities are:
Among competition films: "At Any Price", "Something in the Air", "Passion".
"To the Wonder" and "The Master" now are unlikely Telluride candidates.
Among the out of competition films: "Love is All You Need", "The Reluctant Fundamentalist", "The Company You Keep", "The Iceman".
And if I were forced to chose I'd rank the five most likely as: "Passion", "At Any Price", "The Iceman", "Something in the Air" and "The Company You Keep".
CENTRAL PARK FIVE
I don't think it's much of a secret that I've had this Ken Burns and Co. documentary on the "Ten Bets" list all summer. It's going to play, I say.
A new clip from Sundance hit and one of my personal hopes for this weekend "The Sessions" emerged yesterday. Here it is:
NATIVE SILENCE
And put this down in your notebook for Telluride #40...a restored silent film starring Native Americans discovered and restored here in my home state of Oklahoma. The article says that it's headed to Telluride which would have to mean 2013 and has the support of the above-mentioned Mr. Burns. It's sounds fascinating!
Here's the link to the article from IndianCountryTodaymedianetwork.com:
HitFix has a very nice pictorial up of 20 films it isolates as the films it most anticipates this fall. A number of probable/possible Telluride titles make their list including: "Passion", "Argo", "Frances Ha", "Something in the Air", "The Iceman" and "At Any Price". And some less likely T-ride possibilities such as: "Cloud Atlas", "Anna Karenina", "Great Expectations", "Much Ado About Nothing", "Quartet", "The Place Beyond the Pines", "Seven Psychopaths" and "The Impossible".
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