Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
Thursday marks the return of MTFB for this week with an assessment of the chances of five films that are being distributed by Amazon Studios.
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: AMAZON STUDIOS
Amazon had Oscar nominee/winner Manchester by the Sea play in 2016.
Wonderstruck in 2017.
This year could see multiple entrants from Amazon Studios including Mike Leigh's Peterloo, Ritesh Batra's Photograph, Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War. All of these directors have some TFF history, especially Leigh. In addition, we have to consider Felix Van Groeningen's Beautiful Boy and Dan Fogelman's Life Itself.
Chances in order of likelihood for TFF #45:
Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%
As a matter of fact, Peterloo will almost certainly be on the opening Top Ten List coming out in a week or two. Cold War could make that list as well.
I'll look at Netflix tomorrow.
THE FRONT RUNNER LOOKS AT AWARD SEASON
Sony has dated Jason Reitman's The Front Runner with a Nov. 7th limited release date putting it smack in the middle of the awards season. A wider release will occur the following week on Nov. 14th.
The Front Runner re-visits the real story of Gary Hart's ill-fated 1988 presidential run. Hugh Jackman stars as Hart.
We passed along Trailer Track's Anton Volkov's news earlier this week that a trailer would be released for Robert Zemeckis's Welcome to Marwen and that trailer dropped yesterday. Here it is via YouTube:
Further reporting on the film and its trailer release can be found at:
Reporting from the Czech Republic suggests that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote will play at the Karlovy Vary Film Fest. The news was reported by both The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.
That comes after the news reported here Monday that Gilliam had suffered a legal set back with a French court finding in favor of producer Paolo Blanco.
I wondered if that decision might nix the chances of Quixote playing T-ride.
Now, with this latest news that TMWKDQ will screen at Karlovy Vary despite the court ruling, I am again considering that the Gilliam passion project might still have a shot at the San Juans in a couple of months.
That's all for today. More tomorrow.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
The Patterson Express to Telluride, Colorado departs the station later today. The CEO and I will make about 2/3 of the journey this afternoon/evening and then finish the drive into The 'Ride tomorrow morning. We have plans and errands that must be completed Thursday before the whole shebang kicks off on Friday morning with the Patron brunch...
FINAL "TEN BETS" LIST...
I'll be posting my final "Ten Bets" on the road tomorrow morning. I hope I'm ahead of the curve here. Last year, the full lineup was leaked way early and if that happens again tonight or early tomorrow morning the final Ten Bets will become superfluous really fast.
Here's hoping that doesn't happen.
"BIRDMAN" HAS PREMIERED IN VENICE
As I type this, reports and reviews are coming in for Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" starring Michael Keaton and the general tenor seems to be overwhlemingly positive...some bordering on ecstatic. I'm staying away from reading the body of reviews as I want to experience the film, should it play in Telluride, with as clean a pallette as I can muster...
ALREADY THINKING OSCAR
Movie City News has its first Gurus of Gold up for the 2014-15 edition of Oscar. Gold Derby has also weighed in with a pre-festival stab at guessing which films Oscar will favor this year. MCN's Gurus list David Fincher's "Gone Girl", Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman", Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken" and Richard Linklater's "Boyhood" all tied in the top spot. Meanwhile, the Gold Derby handicappers have "Boyhood" with the best odds to win Best Picture.
From the MCN Gurus, other probable Telluride films listed in consideration for Best Picture are: "Foxcatcher", "Wild", "The Imitation Game", "Mr. Turner" and "Rosewater".
Gold Derby lists: "Foxcatcher", "Birdman", "Wild", "The Imitation Game", "Mr. Turner", "The Homesman" and "Rosewater".
Added note: Gold Derby also lists "Whiplash" which, while not on my list of likely T-ride films, persistently shows up in predictions by others as a Telluride possibility.
Soundonsight.org provides an overview of the Telluride Film Festival and makes some guesses about films they feel might play. Here's what they get wrong: "Unbroken", "Queen of the Desert", "The Theory of Everything" and "Winter Sleep". They get a couple right. Take a look here:
Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter will be talking Telluride today for The Huffington Post. I expect he'll have a pretty good bead on what's likely to play at this year's fest so you might want to tune in. The link for that is here:
Now that we're down to Telluride week, here's your reminder...Don't forget to join in on "The People's Telluride". Rate the films you see this week on a 0-5 scale ( 0 being just abysmal and 5 being a masterpiece). You can rate each day or do them all at the end of the fest. Send film ratings to me via Twitter (@Gort2) or email me at michael_speech@hotmail.com or in the comments section of this blog.
I'll collect all of that data and post the collective ratings from we, The People.
SHOW IN THE PARK
Two or three local websites out of Telluride posted late yesterday that the Roger Ebert documentary "Life Itself" will be shown in Elks Park on Thursday night (so, it finlly shows at Telluride a year after I was just certain that it would...I don't get 'em all). Those films are often a harbinger of one of the Tributes. But for the life of me, I can't quite figure this thing out. I have my ear to the ground on this one and if I get it puzzled out, I'll let you know in tomorrow's post...or Friday's...
Here's the Facebook post from The Telluride Festivarian with the lowdown on the Thursday presentation:
For the third straight year here is the first stab at guessing ten films that will play at Telluride this year.
Last year's initial "Ten Bets" had 5 films that actually made the grade: "Amour", "Rust and Bone", "No", "Midnight's Children" and "Hyde Park on Hudson". The 2011 list was actually much better with 8 of that initial list showing at the SHOW: "The Descendants:, "The Artist", "The Kid with a Bike", "Le Havre", Restored : "A Trip to the Moon", "Into the Abyss", "We Have to Talk About Kevin" and "Shame".
So, with hope that I can return to my 2011 form, here are "Ten Bets":
1) "Nebraska": Alexander Payne's road dramedy with Bruce Dern and Will Forte. Payne's "Descendants" was the #1 bet to start 2011's "Ten Bets" and his follow up starts in the same position for 2013.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1821549/?ref_=sr_1
2) "The Past": My bet is that Asghar Farhadi (and SPC) return to Telluride with this relationship drama follow-up to his brilliant "A Separation". Berenice Bejo stars...and could be a Best Actress contender. Perhaps she'll come to T-ride as her husband Michel Hazanavicius did with "The Artist" 2 years ago.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2404461/?ref_=sr_1
4) "Aguirre: The Wrath of God": Friend of the blog Christopher Schiller mentioned this as a possibility and it makes too much sense. The new restoration of the 1972 film played at Cannes and, of course, was directed by Telluride legend Werner Herzog. Additionally, Herzog will have the new 650 seat theater (hockey pavilion converted to cinema) named in his honor as part of this year's 40th wing ding. What do you bet that "The Zog" (my name for the new theater) opens with this as its first film? Sounds about right to me.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068182/?ref_=sr_1
5) "The Immigrant": James Gray directs and co-wrote the script. It stars Marion Cotillard, Jeremy Renner and Joaquin Phoenix. TFF #39 attendees saw a few minutes of this last year as part of the tribute to Cotillard with Mr. Gray in attendance. My bet is that they had this year's fest slot settled on at that point. Further evidence? Gray's presence at Telluride's Hollywood soiree a few weeks back.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1951181/?ref_=sr_1
7) "The Invisible Woman": Earlier this week as I was analyzing Sony Pictures Classics slate of potential films I mentioned Ralph Fiennes "The Invisible Women" was iffy since its announced release date is Feb. 2014 in Britain. My speculation was that seemed like a long time after TFF...but I did conclude by saying that I hadn't completely ruled it out. Good for me as you will see below. For this spot in the blog...let's just say, the film that focuses on Charles Dickens and his secret lover looks likely now
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1700845/?ref_=sr_1
8) "Labor Day": I'm betting that Jason Reitman returns. After "Juno" and "Up in the Air" both played here, Reitman's last film "Young Adult" did not. I'm guessing that Reitman returns to the San Juans with this latest film that stars Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1967545/?ref_=sr_1
9) "12 Years a Slave": I admit, my guess here is based purely on the fact that Steve McQueen's previous efforts, "Hunger" and "Shame" both appeared at Telluride. It's also in the Fox Searchlight wheelhouse. A lot of smart people think it will play Venice and I haven't found anyone, besides myself, who has it going to Telluride. But remember, "Shame" played both Venice and T-ride. So put it at #8 and hope.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2024544/
10) "Like Father, Like Son": Well received at Cannes and under the Sundance Selects umbrella. The film focuses on the choice one man must make when it is discovered that his son was accidentally switched at birth and that another boy is actually his own.
IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2331143/?ref_=ttco_co_tt
On the edge: Sundance Selects other Cannes films including Palme d'Or winner "Blue is the Warmest Color", "The Selfish Giant" and "Young and Beautiful". SPC's "Only Lovers Left Alive", "The Lunchbox" and "For No Good Reason". Bertrand Tavernier's new film "Quai d'Orsay", Errol Morris's Donald Rumsfeld documentary "The Unkonwn Known". TWC's "One Chance", "Philomena" and "Salinger". Also, don't forget "Mad Men" creator Matthew Weiner's film directing debut "You Are Here".
Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of months.
FOX SEARCHLIGHT AT TELLURIDE
Fox Searchlight has a hit and miss history with the Telluride Film Festival over the past decade. It's been a substantial player some years and has been absent in others. Here's the FS presence at T-ride for the past ten years:
2003:
2004: Kinsey
2005: Bee Season
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake
2007: Juno, The Savages
2008: Slumdog Millionaire
2009:
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan, Millions
2011: Shame, The Descendants
2012:
13 films in ten years. The highwater mark coming in 2010 with 4 films on the SHOW list but '03, '09 and '12 with no films at all. Looking at their current lineup of films purportedly ready:
"12 Years a Slave"
"Black Nativity"
and "Baggage Claim"
Of them, only "12 Years" seems like a solid Telluride pick what with director Steve McQueen's past with the festival. I think "Baggage Claim" is really unlikely. "Black Nativity" is really an intriguing possibility. It's described as a "contemporary adaptation of Langston Hughes celebrated play" and is adapted and directed by Kasi Lemmons whose previous directing crdits include "Talk to Me", "The Caveman's Valentine" and "Eve's Bayou". I could see this being on the TFF list. Notice also, that Fox Searchlight hasn't gone two straight years without some presence at the SHOW.
Ralph Fiennes "Invisible Woman" has always seemed like a possible Telluride film but, as I said above and earlier this week, its announced UK release date of Feb. 7, 2014 gave me pause. However, I'm not pausing any more. The London Daily Mail/Mail Online let slip yesterday that the film will play at TFF #40 with actress Felicty Jones in attendance.
My only question is "Will Fiennes attend?" I'm hoping that answer is "yes".
REMEMBERING BERT STERN
Here's a remembrance of the famed photographer and sometime film director that was a part of Telluride's salute to him two years ago: "Becoming Bert Stern". He died on Tuesday.
