Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
It;s Thursday and MTFB is back with more speculation and reportage regarding the Telluride Film Festival...
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2108: THE COHEN MEDIA GROUP
Over the years the Cohen Media Group has had a modestly robust presence at the Telluride Film Festival. Here's the history of the organization at TFF since 2012:
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack
But this year, at least at this moment, CMG's larder is almost bare. According to IMDb it seems as of the only film that they have that could be in play for TFF is Julien Landais' The Aspern Papers based on the Henry James novel and starring Joely Richardson, Jonathan Rhys Meyers and Vanessa Redgrave.
The period romance has reportedly been in post-production since last August.
Put The Aspern Papers at 30% and also keep an eye peeled for other Cohen Media acquisitions as we go through the next few weeks. Should that happen, it might change the calculus for CMG's TFF profile.
BEAUTIFUL BOY TRAILER AND POSTER LAND
As advertised, the trailer for Felix Von Groeningen's Beautiful Boy starring Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet popped yesterday. It's good. Here its is from YouTube:
The film tells the true story of father and son Nic and David Sheff and the challenges to their lives and relationships due to the son's drug addiction. The screenplay is based on the memoirs of both; father David's Beautiful Boy and son Nic's Tweak.
The film is distributed by Amazon Studios and is scheduled for release on Oct. 12th.
Here's coverage of the release of the trailer from:
A couple of these outlets mention that the film is expected to play the fall film circuit. ShowBiz411 specifically mention Telluride and Toronto as possibilities.
Yes please.
MARWEN MOVED
I was very excited and responsive to the trailer that was released a week ago but in these intervening seven days came news that Universal has decided to move the film's release from its original November date to Dec. 21. The U dated Green Room for the Nov. date in Welcome to Marwen's place.
My initial impression is that the move to December could signal that the film won't be ready in time for Telluride/Venice/Toronto. It might also indicate a New York Film Fest premiere and/or and AFI Fest slot as well.
It almost certainly signals less of a chance that the film will make it to Telluride.
That's today's MTFB. Come back tomorrow for the first Ten Bets for TFF #45!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Thursday marks the return of MTFB for this week with an assessment of the chances of five films that are being distributed by Amazon Studios.
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: AMAZON STUDIOS
Amazon had Oscar nominee/winner Manchester by the Sea play in 2016.
Wonderstruck in 2017.
This year could see multiple entrants from Amazon Studios including Mike Leigh's Peterloo, Ritesh Batra's Photograph, Pawel Pawlikowski's Cold War. All of these directors have some TFF history, especially Leigh. In addition, we have to consider Felix Van Groeningen's Beautiful Boy and Dan Fogelman's Life Itself.
Chances in order of likelihood for TFF #45:
Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%
As a matter of fact, Peterloo will almost certainly be on the opening Top Ten List coming out in a week or two. Cold War could make that list as well.
I'll look at Netflix tomorrow.
THE FRONT RUNNER LOOKS AT AWARD SEASON
Sony has dated Jason Reitman's The Front Runner with a Nov. 7th limited release date putting it smack in the middle of the awards season. A wider release will occur the following week on Nov. 14th.
The Front Runner re-visits the real story of Gary Hart's ill-fated 1988 presidential run. Hugh Jackman stars as Hart.
We passed along Trailer Track's Anton Volkov's news earlier this week that a trailer would be released for Robert Zemeckis's Welcome to Marwen and that trailer dropped yesterday. Here it is via YouTube:
Further reporting on the film and its trailer release can be found at:
Reporting from the Czech Republic suggests that Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote will play at the Karlovy Vary Film Fest. The news was reported by both The Hollywood Reporter and Deadline.
That comes after the news reported here Monday that Gilliam had suffered a legal set back with a French court finding in favor of producer Paolo Blanco.
I wondered if that decision might nix the chances of Quixote playing T-ride.
Now, with this latest news that TMWKDQ will screen at Karlovy Vary despite the court ruling, I am again considering that the Gilliam passion project might still have a shot at the San Juans in a couple of months.
That's all for today. More tomorrow.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS
The series of analyzing the films that specific distribution companies have in the pipeline and their chance at playing TFF #45 continues today looking at the partnered firms of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.
Here's the recent history of Sundance Selects and IFC Films with TFF:
Looking for a probable film from these outfits this year is a difficult proposition. This again is likely a result of the growth of Amazon and Netflix within the film industry as well as the expansion of entities like A24, Neon and Annapurna.
My best prediction for a film from this combo is Roger Michell's documentary There's Nothing Like a Dame.
The doc focuses on the lives and careers of four legendary British actresses: Eileen Atkins, Joan Plowright, Judi Dench and Maggie Smith.
Another reason to think that it might make a TFF play is Roger Michell's history with the fest. Past Michell films at T-ride include Venus and Hyde Park on Hudson.
The film has no known release date at this time per IMDb all of which suggests that it could make the Labor Day lineup.
Chances: 30%.
2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years
2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield 2017: Eating Animals
THE 4TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED
Counting down the last few beginning TFFs now as we look back to the fourth fest that was held Sept. 2-5, 1977.
Tributes: Michael Powell, Agnes Varda, Ben Carre
SHOWS:
The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz
The Ascent
Black Narcissus
The Bluebird
Cleo from 5 to 7
Coup de Grace
Dagguerotypes
The Devil's Playground
A Geisha
I Know Where I'm Going
It Happened Here
La Pointe Courte
La Roi des Champs Elysees
Le Bonheur
The Light in the Dark
Lion's Love
The Magician
A Matter of Life and Death
Nine Months
Old San Francisco
Picture Show Man
Primary
Queen of Apollo
The Red Dance
Rudd Family Goes to Town
Scaramouche
The Spy in Black
The Squatter's Daughter
The Volunteer
Voyage to the Grand Tartary
Wake and Fright
Winstanley
A Woman's Face
GUESTS:
Werner Herzog
Ed Lachman
Martin Scorsese
MARWEN TRAILER LOOMING
Steve Carell on the set of Welcome to Marwen
Steve Carell has a couple of projects that could end up in front of Telluride audiences by the time we get to Labor Day weekend. The more likely is Beautiful Boy co-starring actor of the moment Timothee Chalamet.
The other is, like Beautiful Boy, based on a true story of a man finding a novel way of healing himself in the aftermath of a harsh attack.
Robert Zemeckis directs Welcome to Marwen. Word from Anton Volkov/Trailer Track that a Marwen trailer drop is imminent.
Welcome back from your weekend...hope it was a good one...
THE AWARDS FROM THE 71ST CANNES FILM FESTIVAL
The Cannes Film Fest closed Saturday with the presentation of awards. The winners were:
Main Competition:
Palme d'Or: Shoplifters
Grand Prix: BlacKkKlansman
Jury Prize: Capharnaum
Director: Pawel Pawlikowski-Cold War
Screenplay: Happy as Lazzaro and Three Faces
Actress: Samal Yeslyamova-Ayka
Actor: Marcello Fonte-Dogman
Special Palme: The Image Book
Here's the trailer for the Palme d'Or winner from YouTube:
Un Certain Regard:
UCR Prize: Border
Screenplay: Sofia
Best Performance: Victor Polster-Girl
Director: Sergei Loznitsa-Donbass
Special Jury Prize: The Dead and the Others
From among the Palme winners, I suspect every film is a potential TFF player at this point with the exception of Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman which Focus Features has set for release on Aug. 10th and I also have my doubts about Goddard's Image Book.
Another wrinkle is the acquisition of Happy as Lazzaro and Girl during the fest and, at this point, trying to divine what that will me for how those films get released and the implications for a possible Telluride play are difficult.
Netflix has been a presence at Telluride the past three years but that was prior to the brouhaha that played out in France this past few weeks that resulted in Netflix screening nothing in Cannes. How that factors into their plans heading to the fall and if it has a residual effect regarding TFF programmers...I don't know.
In addition to the Cannes acquisitions, Netflix also has Martin Scorsese's The Irishman which one would think would be a major player come awards season if it's done... and that's a BIG IF. And they also have Alfonso Cuaron's Roma and Orson Welles' The Other Side of the Wind (which I really believe will play TFF #45).
Stand by to hear what the Netflix plan is for releasing these acquisitions. Maybe that will give us some insight.
Regular readers of this space probably know from past posts that the Cannes/Telluride crossover averages between seven and eight films each year. Most of those titles come from the main competition and Un Certain Regard sections that. Occasionally titles will come from some part of the non-competition slate or even the Directors Fortnight presentations.
So, as I have said, the Cannes/Telluride crossover is strong and has a lengthy history but the connection to the Cannes prize winners is fairly tenuous. Over the past decade, only three Palme d'Or winners have made the journey to Telluride: The White Ribbon ('10), Amour ('12) and Blue Is the Warmest Colour ('13).
Actually, in the last ten years, the film that wins the Grand Prix (second place essentially) is more likely to make the trip to the San Juans: Gomorrah ('08), A Prophet ('09), Of Gods and Men ('10), Inside Llewyn Davis ('13), Son of Saul ('15).
The other modestly successful predictor, weirdly, is Best Actor: Biutiful ('10), The Artist ('11), The Hunt ('12), Nebraska ('13), Mr. Turner ('14).
Other Cannes prizes and their TFF crossovers the past ten years are:
Jury Prize (third place): Fish Tank ('09), Loveless ('17)
Director: Foxcatcher ('14), Graduation ('16)
Actress: The Past ('13), Carol ('15)
Screenplay: Poetry ('10), Footnote ('11), Leviathan ('14)
UCR Prize: Tulpan ('08), Rams ('16), A Man of Integrity ('17)
This history suggests that the most likely Cannes plays for TFF #45 would be BlacKkKlansman but we know it won't be as it will be released three weeks before the festival which points us toward the Best Actor winner-Dogman. That has a real shot.
THE LAST ROUND-UP OF CRITICS FOR CANNES 2018
Here's the final critical assessment of films that played these last two weeks in Cannes beginning with the behemoth from Reini Urban:
Overall from all sections the top five films critically were:
1) Dead Souls
2) Burning
3) Thunder Road
4) Shoplifters
5) Happy as Lazarro
(Note: the short film Ultra Purple/Apocalypse After actually would sit at #4 but was scored by only five critics. Dead Souls was also only scored by 16 critics)
Top five from the Palme d'Or section:
1) Burning (8.10/10)
2) Shoplifters (7.67)
3) Happy as Lazarro (7.63)
4) The Wild Pear Tree (7.49)
5) Cold War (7.42)
Top three from the UCR section
1) Long Days Journey Into Night (7.40)
2) Girl (7.15)
3) The Dead and the Others (6.91)
From Ioncinema's ratings of the Palme d'Or competition:
1) Burning (3.8/5-TIE)
1) The Wild Pear Tree (3.8)
3) Cold War (3.7)
4) Shoplifters (3.6)
5) Ash Is the Purest White (3.3 TIE)
5) Leto (3.3)
5) Three Faces (3.3)
Terry Gilliam's The Man Who Killed Don Quixote has finally screened for live humans in a theater!!!
And now that it has...I can't say that I'm surprised that I have been seeing a number of reviews that have used words like "confused" and "missing a bit of soul". As I type (with a small number of reviews counted, RT has it at 57% and Metacritic has it at a 50.
It sounds like what I've come to expect from Gilliam...
Does that mean it's off the table for TFF #45? Can't say that yet.
Another note about the 71st Cannes: I was a little alarmed at how often I saw the phrase "slow burn" in takes about films that played...which I sometimes think is code for "it's slow but important".
Now that Cannes is in the books, I'll pay attention to acquisition news and release dates concerning these titles for additional TFF clues.
A FIRST LOOK AT BEAUTIFUL BOY
Felix Van Groeningen's Beautiful Boy will probably be on my first Ten Bets list (which is about six weeks away). From Amazon Studios, the film features Timothee Chalamet (Oscar nominated last year for Call Me By Your Name) and Steve Carell (Oscar nominated for Foxcatcher) as son and father dealing with the youngsters addiction to meth.
It's likely going to be a part of our conversations for the next several months.
That said, this week, we saw the first footage for the film via a 30 second teaser which is here from YouTube:
Additionally, here is coverage from Indiewire and The Playlist of the release of the teaser.
That's your MTFB for this Monday. Have a good week everyone...and more to come on Thursday.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Galaxy 1:30 PM Battle of the Sexes
Galaxy 4:45 PM Lady Bird
Herzog 7:45 PM Battle of the Sexes
CJC 4:30 PM The Other Side of Hope
CJC 7:00 PM Faces Places
SOH 1:00 PM The Rider
SOH 3:30 PM Loveless
SOH 6:15 PM Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
SOH 8:30 PM The Shape of Water
Nugget 1:15 PM Calling Cards
Nugget 7:00 PM First They Killed My Father
Masons 9:15 AM Land of the Free
Masons 1:00 PM First Reformed
Masons 3:30 PM The Venerable W. FREE
Masons 5:45 PM A Fantastic Woman
Masons 8:15 PM Loving Vincent
Le Pierre 9:30 AM Heroism of the Everyday: Heroin(e) + Long Shot FREE
Le Pierre 1:15 PM Arthur Miller: Writer
Le Pierre 3:30 PM Tesnota
Le Pierre 6:00 PM Jamaica Man FREE
Le Pierre 7:45 PM Love, Cecil
Backlot 9:00 AM Hitler’s Hollywood FREE
Backlot 11:20 AM That Summer FREE
Backlot 1:30 PM Cinema Through the Eye of Magnum FREE
Backlot 2:50 PM Filmworker FREE
Backlot 4:50 PM Hitler’s Hollywood FREE
Guillermo Del Toro moved his Q and A outdoors Sunday morning to extend its length.
The Shape of Water- Del Toro's images are breath taking. I know a lot of the town is talking about this film tonight and they should be. Personally, my reaction seems to be more muted than most. I talked to a very experienced reviewer today for a good long while and he loved it. Heaps of praise to Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins. I hope this man is in the convo for Supporting actor-great work here.
Battle of the Sexes- Played very, very well to the house. I found myself reacting to the shots in the game/climax...even knowing the outcome. Emma Stone and Steve Carell are in fine form.
Loving Vincent- Gorgeous as expected. Script is relatively staid and that gets in the way. Still, the process is mind-blowing.
RATE THE FILMS PEOPLE
As I finish this up late Sunday night it seems to me that the films earning the most buzz have been: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Battle of the Sexes and Hostiles. I can't wait to see how the pros and the peeps respond. So rate the films you saw on a 0-5 scale and send them to me. You can do so using any of the contact methods listed below.
TOMORROW'S PLAN
Looks like I am probably at The Galaxy at 9:00 for Hostiles. Then a quick visit to the picnic and likely closing TFF #44 after catching The Rider at 1:00 at the Opera House. Then we'll almost certainly hit the road for home.
Say hello if you see me.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
LOTTA INS, LOTTA OUTS PART ONE: LAST FLAG, FLORIDA AND ANOTHER WONDER
Yes. I'm quoting The Dude. I'm talkin' The Dude here. Yesterday saw at least three pieces of news that altered some parts of the fall film scene.
First...an "out". The New York Film Festival announced that Richard Linklater's Last Flag Flying will be their opening film and that it will be a world premiere on Sept. 28th.
Cranston, Carell and Fishburne in Last Flag Flying (from NYFF and Collider)
That world premiere status means that the film is off the table in as far as a Telluride play is concerned.
Bums me out a bit as it is a film that I would like to have seen make the TFF #44 lineup. Bryan Cranston and Steve Carell in a "spiritual sequel" to Hal Ashby's classic The Last Detail? I would have been a very receptive viewer.
And though I never have had it high on my mental list of TFF-possibles...its status as an Amazon Studios film kept me from ruling it out completely.
But it's ruled out now. No Last Flag at T-ride.
Coverage is linked about the NYFF announcement below:
And while Last Flag Flying was getting booted off my list, a couple of other films were dated for release yesterday which, in one case, made their Telluride case a little better and in the other might move a film onto the periphery of my list.
Sean Baker's The Florida Project was announced with an Oct. 6th release date. That puts it in very good chronological position for A24 regarding T-ride and Toronto and a possible awards play.
Also yesterday, Amazon announced that Woody Allen's latest, Wonder Wheel is getting a release on Dec. 1. It's Allen's first non-summer release in some time and puts it in play for awards season which means that I might have to pay attention to its chances at Telluride. I think they're small but...it is Amazon and Allen's Sweet and Lowdown played the fest back in 1999. So never say never.
Another in my continuing attempt to document, online, a more thorough examination of the history of the Telluride Film Festival. Today, a big anniversary fest. #25.
The 25th Telluride Film Festival ran Sept. 3-7, 1998 (an extra fifth day for the anniversary).
The Apple
August 32nd on Earth
Autumn Tale
Brakhage
Central Station
Claire Dolan
The Crowd
Dance Me to My Song
Dancing at Lughnasa
Dial HISTORY
Directed by John Ford
The Dreamlife of Angels
Endurance
The Fire Within
Frank Lloyd Wright
The General
Head
Happiness
I Stand Alone
I'm Losing You
The Informer
The Inheritors
It Happened Here
Kindness
The Last Command
Life at Any Cost
Love
M
Make Way for Tomorrow
The Man Who Laughs
Night of the Hunter
My Son the Fanatic
Outskirts
The Reckless Moment
Remous
She and He
Smiles of a Summer Night
Strike
Tango
Touch of Evil
We All Loved Each Other So Much
The Wedding March
Xiu Xiu-The Sent Down Girl
Guests:
Laurie Anderson
Rosanna Arquette
Peter Bogdanovich
John Boorman
Ken Burns
Joan Chen
Monte Hellman
Buck Henry
Chuck Jones
Janet Leigh
Norman Lloyd
Terrence Malick
Leonard Maltin
Errol Morris
Gaspar Noe
Bob Rafaelson
Michael Ritchie
Walter Salles
Barbet Schroeder
Todd Solondz
Vittorio Stararo
Meryl Streep
Bertrand Tavernier
Denis Villeneuve
Interesting (to me anyway) notes:
Terrence Malick at TFF for the documentary he produced: Endurance. Twin Peaks alum Joan Chen directing Xiu Xiu, Denis Villeneuve with his first feature.
And that's Tuesday. Back on Thursday...
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
It's a film that has been on the MTFB radar for many months. The film is the Dayton/Faris' Battle of the Sexes which centers on the story of the tennis match for the ages between Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs and starsEmma Stone and Steve Carell. I believe I first noted it in this space in June of 2014.
Now Fox Searchlight has dated it for a Sept. 22nd release which means it could play Telluride (and/or Venice and Toronto). Although, that doesn't seem to me to be a prime release window if you play Telluride (Black Mass and Sully both landed close to that date the last couple of years). Nevertheless, it keeps the film in play as a TFF #44 possibility.
I usually stay away from politics in this space but I noted this week an Indiewire post about the possible effect on film festivals should the Trump budget come to pass complete with its gutting of the National Endowment for the Arts. It seems that a number of film festivals would take a hot including the Telluride Film Festival.
That seemed to me to be worthy to pass along to my readers. Here's the story From Indiewire .
ONE MORE BIG CANNES SPEC PIECE
Variety posted an extensive piece yesterday with informed Cannes lineup guesswork. Notable films mentioned among the possible titles included Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck,
Of as much interest is a paragraph about two Paramount films: Alexander Payne's Downsizing (which has been on any number of Cannes lists within the last month) and George Clooney's Suburbicon. The reporters suggest that Payne may not be ready to bow in France in May but that Clooney might be. Considering how hot the expectation has been that the Payne film would likely play, this is a bit surprising.
Other notable strong contenders are said to include Michael Haneke's Happy End, Michel Hazanavicius' Redoubtable, Abdellatif Kechiche's Mektoub is Mektoub.
As you have surely noticed, I am taking a keen interest (and have been for some time now) in the ongoing process to complete Orson Welles "final' film, The Other Side of the Wind. The negatives are currently in Los Angeles and work is said to have begun.
Earlier this week, Indiewire posted a fairly detailed account of how and where this all came about. If you haven't already immersed yourself on the details, their story is a good way to get up to speed.
Perhaps the best film that played TFF #$2. Laszlo Nemes "Son of Saul" is considered by most Oscar watches to be the favorite for a Best Foreign Language statue next February. The inventive Holocaust drama has finally gotten a trailer out. You can check it out in this post from The Playlist:
Fox Searchlight announced yesterday that Emma Stone has re-entered the casting for "Battle of the Sexes" a dramatization of the televised 1073 tennis match between Bobby Riggs and Billie Jean King. Stone would be acting with Steve Carell as Riggs.
I've had this potential film on my Telluride radar for months. Now, perhaps it will actually take off and be a TFF consideration for #43 or #44.
Awards Daily's Sasha Stone re-posted a list of the 25 best reviewed films of the year according to their metascore. Telluride films rank in the list as follows:
1) "Anomalisa"
2) "Carol"
4) "Spotlight"
5) "45 Years"
10) "Room"
15) "Steve Jobs"
20) "Beasts of No Nation"
Here's the latest FAC focused on Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor.
The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Telluride #41 films are Bold (with their last rating in parentheses).
BEST PICTURE
1) Boyhood (1) 2) Birdman (3) 3) The Imitation Game (4)
4) Selma (2)
5) The Theory of Everything (5)
6) The Grand Budapest Hotel (15)
7) Whiplash (7) 8) Foxcatcher (9)
9) Unbroken (6)
10) Gone Girl (8)
11) Into the Woods (12)
12) Nightcrawler (NR)
13) Interstellar (10) 14) Mr. Turner (13)
15) A Most Violent Year (14)
Hot: Grand Budapest, Nightcrawler
Not: Selma, Unbroken, Gone Girl, American Sniper
Comment: "Grand Budapest" returns to a serious part of the conversation in light of good news from critics and Globes nominations. "Selma's" drop is probably not all that crucial.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (1) 2) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu/Birdman (2)
3) Ava DuVernay/Selma (3) 4) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (4)
5) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel (13)
6) David Fincher/Gone Girl (6)
7) Damien Chazelle/Whiplash (7) 8) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (10)
9) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
10) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (8)
Hot: Anderson, Miller
Not: Jolie, Marsh and Nolan
Comment: the Director's race continues to tell me that "Imitation Game" is the more likely Best Picture spoiler compared to "The Theory of Everything". Wes Anderson also benefits from "The Grand Budapest" explosion over the lat ten days.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (1) 2) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (2)
3) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (3)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (4)
5) Jennifer Aniston/Cake (9)
6) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (6) 7) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (5) 8) Marion Cotillard/Two Days, One Night (11)
9) Emily Blunt/Into the Woods (7)
10) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (8)
Hot: Aniston and Cotillard.
Not: Swank, Blunt, Woodley and Mbatha-Raw
Comment: Aniston is a hot enough candidate that I expect she might be parked at #2 when we re-visit the category in two weeks. Ultimately, the five nominees might be known at this point.
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
2) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (2) 3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (3)
4) David Oyelowo/Selma (4) 5) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (5)
6) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler (10) 7) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (7)
8) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (11)
9) Oscar Isaac/A Most Violent Year (8)
10) Chadwick Boseman/Get On Up (14)
Hot: Gyllenhaal, Fiennes and Boseman
Not: Cooper.O'Connell
Comment: Gyllenhaal is definitely a part of the convo along with Oyelowo and Carell for the fourth and fifth spots.
COTILLARD TALKS
Thompson on Hollywood talks to the Telluride Tribute recipient, Oscar winner and potential nominee about "Two Days, One Night" and other matters.
CRITIC'S CHOICE AWARDS NOMINATIONS LED BY "BIRDMAN"
Continuing a trend that I have said will carry on into Oscar nomination morning, Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" led all films with 13 Critic's Choice Award nominations including Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Direction and Screenplay.
Also among the nominees from Telluride:
"The Imitation Game": Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
FLASH: SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARD NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED
Telluride nominees in Bold!
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell/Foxcatcher Benedict Cumberbatch/Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal/Nightcrawler Michael Keaton/Birdman
Eddie Redmayne/Theory of Everything
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Aniston/Cake
Felicity Jones/Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore/Still Alice
Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon/Wild
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall/The Judge
Ethan Hawke/Boyhood Edward Norton/Birdman Mark Ruffalo/Foxcatcher
JK Simmons/Whiplash
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette/Boyhood Kiera Knightley/Imitation Game Emma Stone/Birdman
Meryl Streep/Into the Woods
Naomi Watts/St. Vincent
BEST CAST
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
"Birdman" leads with four nominations. "Boyhood" and "The Theory of Everything" have three. "Foxcatcher" nabbed two.
Telluride 2014 is represented with 10 of the 25 nominations.
Hello on a Monday...October is just around the corner.
THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 2A-FOUR MAJOR CATEGORIES
As the New York Film Festival roared to life over the past weekend, I took the opportunity to take another snapshot of the four biggest races in the Oscar contest for 2014. In the wake of the conclusion of the triumvirate of September fests (Telluride, Toronto and Venice) and the first reviews coming out for the NYFF opener, David Fincher's "Gone Girl", there has been some movement in some of the categories.
As always, The FAC uses the published predictions of the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Telluride #41 films areBold.
A film/person's rating in the last FAC is listed to the right in parentheses.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Imitation Game (3) 2) Birdman (1)
3) Boyhood (2)
4) The Theory of Everything (6)
5) Unbroken (5)
6) Interstellar (7) 7) Foxcatcher (4)
8) Gone Girl (8) 9) Mr. Turner (9)
10) Fury (NR)
11) Selma (NR)
12) Whiplash (NR)
13) Into the Woods (NR) 14) Wild (NR)
15) The Grand Budapest Hotel (10)
Comment: Big boost to "The Imitation Game" coming out of Telluride and then winning the audience award at Toronto. "Theory" also got a good bump from Toronto. "Foxcatcher" and "Grand Budapest" getting the worst of it over the last couple of weeks.
Watch out for J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year" which has been announced as the opening film for the American Film Institute festival on Nov. 6th.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman (1)
2) Richard Linklater/Boyhood (2)
3) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken (5)
4) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar (4) 5) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game (6) 6) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher (3)
7) David Fincher/Gone Girl (NR)
8) James Marsh/The Theory of Everything (NR)
9) David Ayer/Fury (7) 10) Mike Leigh/Mr. Turner (8)
Comment: Wes Anderson and Paul Thomas Anderson drop out. I expect PTA will jump back into the conversation once "Inherent Vice" plays as the centerpiece for the New York Film Festival. There's been big momentum for Jolie, Fincher and Marsh in the past two weeks and, as I expected and wrote in the first FAC for Best Director, Morten Tyldum moved up a spot to #5 and would be a nominee if these stats prove accurate.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Reese Witherspoon/Wild (1)
2) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything (4)
3) Julianne Moore/Still Alice (8)
4) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl (3)
5) Amy Adams/Big Eyes (2) 6) Hilary Swank/The Homesman (6)
7) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year (9)
8) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods (5)
9) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars (7)
10) Jessica Chastain/The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (10)
Comment: Julianne Moore rockets up the chart after her Toronto performance. I expect that she'll move to the top spot by the time I get the next FAC for Best Actress up. Amy Adams and Meryl Streep take a dive...and I get the feeling that that may be prophetic. Who benefits? Chastain would be my bet. My five would be: Moore, Witherspoon, Pike, Jones and Chastain (for "Most Violent Year").
BEST ACTOR
1) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game (2) 2) Michael Keaton/Birdman (1)
3) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything (4) 4) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher (3) 5) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner (5)
6) David Oyelowo/Selma (6)
7) Bill Murray/St. Vincent (8)
8) Jack O'Connell/Unbroken (10)
9) Joaquin Phoenix/Inherent Vice (9)
10) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel (7)
Comment: This has been a fairly stable category the last two weeks despite bring generally regarded as one of the most competitive categories. The top three men are so tightly packed that it's likely going to be tight right to the end. Big boost for O'Connell (who would replace Timothy Spall in my guesses at the five nominees) and Fiennes suffers the biggest drop.
HITFIX AND IN CONTENTION SURVEY THE OSCAR FIELD
The crew at HitFix and In Contention have put together a lengthy list of Best Picture contenders and assess the chances of each of the films at winning the big prize on Feb. 22. The TFF #41 films on their list (alphabetically):
"Birdman"
"Foxcatcher"
"The Homesman"
"The Imitation Game"
"Mr. Turner"
"Rosewater"
"Wild"
OK...OK...it's not a Telluride film but I couldn't help linking to the trailer for Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" that dropped earlier this week. I'll be honest, I've been a little reluctant about embracing/anticipating this film. I love me some PTA but I found, in reading the Thomas Pynchon novel, that the loosey goosey structure to be entertaining for awhile and then a little annoying. Occasional comparisons to PTA's "Punch Drunk Love" didn't help...it's his one film that I think is really just bad.
But recent reports that "Vice" is inspired/informed by Zucker-esque films such as "Airplane" and "Top Secret" have me re-intrigued. The trailer is also...interesting. Check it here and take a look at a number of posts/stories about the film and the trailer that I have also linked:
On Monday I posted a list of five films that might have a future at Telluride and at #3 on that list was Jay Roach's "Trumbo" which will star Bryan Cranston as the blackballed author and screenwriter. I admitted than that I had no real Telluride connections that I could point to such as a producer, director or dustributor with a Telluride history.
Fortunately MTFB reader Patrick Pringle was on the ball and pointed out that Dalton Trumbo came from that part of Colorado. Patrick reminded me that Trumbo was born in Montrose, CO. and raised in nearby Grand Junction. For all practical purposes, Dalton Trumbo was a hometown boy.
Welcome to Monday and another week in the middle of September.
THE FIRST 2014 FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE-FOUR MAJOR CATEGORIES
With Telluride and Venice done and Toronto wrapping up, here's the first look at The FAC for Best Picture, Director, Actor and Actress. TFF #41 Films in Bold.
The FAC uses the published predictions f the following to develop its list of likely Oscar nominees:
Kristopher Tapley/InContention/HitFix
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Bred Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
A bit later in the season, I'll add other Oscar experts...but for now...
BEST PICTURE
1) Birdman
2) Boyhood 3) The Imitation Game 4) Foxcatcher
5) Unbroken
6) The Theory of Everything
7) Interstellar
8) Gone Girl 9) Mr. Turner
10) The Grand Budapest Hotel
Comment: Personally, if I were wagering, my money would likely be on "Unbroken", "The Imitation Game" and then "Birdman" in that order.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Alejandro Inarritu/Birdman
2) Richard Linklater/Boyhood 3) Bennett Miller/Foxcatcher
4) Christopher Nolan/Interstellar
5) Angelina Jolie/Unbroken 6) Morten Tyldum/The Imitation Game
7) David Ayer/Fury 8) Mike Leigh/Mr. Turner
9) Wes Anderson/The Grand Budapest Hotel
10) Paul Thomas Anderson/Inherent Vice
Comment: Some disconnects here...James Marsh who directs "The Theory of Everything" which sits at #5 on the BP chart doesn't make the Best Direction list while David Yer does for "Fury". I suspect that Morten Tyldum will gain some momentum as the season moves along.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Reese Witherspoon/Wild
2) Amy Adams/Big Eyes
3) Rosamund Pike/Gone Girl
4) Felicity Jones/The Theory of Everything
5) Meryl Streep/Into the Woods 6) Hilary Swank/The Homesman
7) Shailene Woodley/The Fault in Our Stars
8) Julianne Moore/Still Alice
9) Jessica Chastain/A Most Violent Year
10) Jessica Chastain/Eleanor Rigby
Comment: A tough category in what is perceived as a weak year for lead female roles. This list is likely very volatile. Chastain may beat herself out as she has a number of projects and "A Most Violent Year" may not even see release this year. Frankly, I'm dubious about Streep on "Into the Woods".
BEST ACTOR
1) Michael Keaton/Birdman 2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Imitation Game 3) Steve Carell/Foxcatcher
4) Eddie Redmayne/The Theory of Everything 5) Timothy Spall/Mr. Turner
6) David Oyelowo/Selma
7) Ralph Fiennes/The Grand Budapest Hotel
8) Bill Murray/St. Vincent
9) Joaquin Phoenix/Inherent Vice
10) Jack O'Connell/Unbroken
Comment: I think Spall is really in jeopardy here. Fiennes, Murray and O'Connell duke it out for the fifth spot.
I'll be looking at the Supporting Acting categories and the screenplay categories next week on MTFB/FAC.
WORDS FROM INARRITU
Alejandro G. Inarritu at T-ride (Getty Images)
Friend of the blog Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net got a chance at Telluride to speak with director/writer Alejandro G. Inarritu about his brilliant film "Birdman" and other topics as well. Alex posted his interview with the autuer here:
THE PLAYLIST TALKS TELLURIDE, FALL FESTS AND THE OSCAR SEASON
I've included a link to the latest podcast from The Playlist. The 'cast goes nearly an hour and covers any number of topics from the last couple of weeks. Take a listen here:
