Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor and adding first predictions for Cinematography, Editing and Production Design. These were last predicted on Dec. 5th. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)
2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)
4) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (4)
5) Margot Robbie/Babylon (5)
6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (6)
7) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (7)
BEST ACTOR
1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)
2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)
4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)
5) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (5)
6) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (New)
7) Hugh Jackman/The Son (6)
Out: Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans
BEST CINEMATOGRAHY
1) Avatar: The Way of Water
2) Top Gun: Maverick
3) The Fabelmans
4) Babylon
5) Empire of Light
6) All Quiet on the Western Front
7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Top Gun: Maverick
2) Everything Everywhere All at Once
3) The Fabelmans
4) Avatar: The Way of Water
5) Elvis
6) The Banshees of Inisherin
7) TAR
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Elvis
2) Babylon
3) The Fabelmans
4) Avatar: The Way of Water
5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
7) Everything Everywhere All at Once
INDIEWIRE'S TOP 50 AND TFF
Indiewire published its survey of more than 160 film critics and journalists on Wednesday this past week and TFF films nabbed nine of the 50 spots. I have listed them in the order they appear on the list:
The Hollywood Critics Association announced their nominees for the best in cinema for 2022 on Thursday. Eight TFF films landed at least one nomination and TFF films earned 20 nominations overall. Women Talking and TAR led the way with five nominations each. Here's the rundown:
Women Talking (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Ensemble. Women Talking had also been nominated for two HCA Creative Arts Awards on Dec. 8th for Best Casting Direction and Score.
TAR (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay and Best Independent Film.
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On From (TFF #48) (3): Best Independent Film, Animated Film, Vocal Performance/Slate.
Aftersun (3): Best Independent Film, First Feature, Actor (Mescal).
Bones and All (1): Best Horror Film.
Close (1): Best International Film,
Good Night Oppy (1): Best Documentary,
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary.
I have been refused journalist accreditation for TFF #49. Again. The last time I was accredited was 2018. Regular readers have seen this before and my annual commentary. I'm going to forgo that this year. Suffice to say, I must really be persona non grata vis-a-vis the festival.
TORONTO WEIRDNESS
The Toronto International Film Festival is being a bit cagey and unconventional this summer. TIFF has already announced four World Premiere films that they have scheduled. Meaning they won't be at Telluride:
Green Onions: A Knives Out Mystery-which is the big get of the four announced films
Brother
Bros
On the Come Up
It nearly goes without saying that I haven't had any of these four titles on my watchlist/guess list for TFF #49.
I haven't yet heard when TIFF will drop an announcement with a big chunk of their slate. History suggests that is likely on June 26th. But with this new strategy of easing out a single title every few days...who knows?
MTFB SHOWS UP IN OTHER PLACES
Over the past few days a couple of outlets that you have seen mentioned here in the past have mentioned MTFB on their sites. Both Sasha Stone at her Awards Daily site and Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel refenced and linked to yours truly as they both posted pieces that looked at Telluride and possible films that will play for TFF #49.
Jordan also reports that Noah Baumbach's White Noise, which I had thought would be slam dunk for TFF #49, seems to be off the table. Jordan had previously reported that the film was shaky for fall fests and it appears that it has become even shakier. Check his story on that here.
INDIEWIRE'S SCREEN TALK TALKS FALL FESTS
Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson in this week's Indiewire's weekly Screen talk podcast spent a good amount of time discussing the looming fall fest landscape. They talk about several films and fests. Of interest to MTFB readers is that the mention Alejandro Inarritu's Bardo and James Gray's Armageddon specifically on the context of TFF #49.
Both films currently sit on the latest incarnation of MTFB's Ten Bets. Bardo at # 6 and Armageddon time at #8.
The TFF #49 poster drop happened last Thursday after my regular MTFB posting. I added a special additional post later in the day on Thursday but of you didn't see that, here's that announcement again:
BERKELEY, CA - Telluride Film Festival (September 2-5, 2022) today presents its 2022 Festival poster, designed by Leanne Shapton.
Leanne Shapton is a Canadian author, artist, graphic novelist and publisher living in New York City with her daughter. She is the art editor at The New York Review of Books and co-founder of J&L Books, a non-profit publisher specializing in art and photography. Shapton’s first work, Was She Pretty?, was a nominee for the Doug Wright Award in 2007. Her second book, Important Artifacts and Personal Property From the Collection of Lenore Doolan and Harold Morris, Including Books, Street Fashion and Jewelry, was optioned by Plan B/Paramount in 2009 with Brad Pitt and Natalie Portman attached to star. Shapton’s book Swimming Studies won the 2012 National Book Critic’s Circle Award for autobiography and was long-listed for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year 2012. She is a fellow of the Royal Canadian Geographical Society.
“I was delighted to be asked to make a poster for the 49th Festival. Some of my favorite artists have done one, and I think my favorite is by the incredible production designer Dean Tavoularis,” remarks Shapton. “I was in the middle of a book cover assignment when Julie Huntsinger asked, and leapt at the instruction to include the word SHOW. I love hand-painted letterforms and the strength single words can have and how they name, and so wrote out the word about twenty-five times in my favorite green.”
“If a breath of fresh air could be conveyed in an image, this is what Leanne has accomplished in our beautiful poster for TFF 49,” comments Festival executive director Julie Huntsinger. “Without even indicating that this was the hoped-for point of view, she delivered our sentiment for this year. Leanne has conjured an elegance that is neither fussy nor contrived, not unlike the very best films. We’re thrilled to introduce her gorgeous work to our SHOW community and the world.”
Posters are an annual tradition of the Festival, and Shapton joins a prestigious list of artists who have been selected by, and who have shared their talents with Telluride Film Festival. Past poster artists include Yann Legendre, Laurent Durieux, Christian Marclay, Dean Tavoularis, Ed Ruscha, John Mansfield, Julian Schnabel, Dottie Attie, Doug and Mike Starn, David Lance Goines, Chuck Jones, David Salle, Alexis Smith, Jim Dine, Seymour Chwast, Frederic Amat, Francesco Clemente, Dave McKean, Gary Larson, Chip Kidd, John Canemaker, Mark Stock, Laurie Anderson, William Wegman, Ralph Eggleston, Maira Kalman, Dave Eggers, Lance Rutter, Edwina White and Luke Dorman.
49th Telluride Film Festival posters are available for purchase now on the TFF website at www.telluridefilmfestival.org.
Each summer around this time I take some time to check out what Telluride's "Usual Suspects" have in the pipeline that could end up on the list films named to the TFF lineup. The process is not always predictive but there have been many times when it has.
The striking thing this year is that there seem to be fewer "Usual Suspects" projects that could be in the pipeline. That said...
Werner Herzog-The Fire Within which world premiered at the Sheffield Doc Fest last month. The film focuses on Katia and Maurice Krafft who were featured in Herzog's 2016 Into the Inferno. The couple were also the subject of a documentary that premiered at Sundance earlier this year: Fire of Love.
Ken Burns- The U.S. and the Holocaust. The three part series is set to begin screening on PBS stations on Sept. 18th which suggests to me that a Telluride showing of some and perhaps all of the episodes are screened at TFF #49.
Paul Schrader-The Master Gardener. Schrader has been represented at Telluride many times over the years: The Card Counter, First Reformed, Adam Resurrected. I'd normally think that Master Gardener would be a Telluride lock BUT- Schrader has been announced as the recipient of this year's Venice Film Fest's Golden Lion award for Lifetime achievement. How Venice schedules that presentation and where in their schedule they program The Master Gardener likely will determine whether Schrader's film plays Telluride.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Bardo. There was some back and forth occurring last week as to whether the film would be playing any fall fests. At the end of the week the notion seemed to land on "probably". My guess is a Venice early slot followed by a jump across the Atlantic to T-ride. Inarritu has presented Babel, Biutiful and Birdman at Telluride. He's also been in town for Cuaron's Roma and Del Toro's The Shape of Water. I am expecting, if Bardo is ready for it to be at TFF #49.
Jean Pierre and Luc Dardennes- Tori and Lokita- The film premiered at Cannes, which, if anything, bolsters the probability that it makes its way to The SHOW. The Dardennes have made a number of appearances at TFF: The Child, The Kid with a Bike and Two Days One Night-their last TFF film in 2014.
Sebastian Lelio-The Wonder. Lelio has made a splash at Telluride in recent years: Gloria in 2013 and A Fantastic Woman in 2017. The wonder is also a Netflix title, which doesn't hurt.
Bill Pohlad-Dreamin' Wild. Pohlad has been a supporter of Telluride as well as a producer of films that play there for a good long while: A Hidden Life, Wild, 12 Years a Slave, Into the Wild, Fur, Brokaback Mountain. Pohlad has a couple of directing credits including Love & Mercy which did not play Telluride but did screen at the Toronto Fest. The film is also in the Focus Features bin.
Producers that could be represented at TFF #49 that are "Usual" as well.
Martin Scorsese-The Eternal Daughter. Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon will not be ready for fall fests and likely wouldn't play them even if it was. However, Scorsese is often represented at Telluride in his capacity as a producer: The Card Counter, Uncut Gems, Bleed for This. Eternal Daughter is also being distributed by A24.
Barry Jenkins-Aftersun. Aftersun played well at Cannes winning the French Touch Prize of the Critics' Week Jury and was produced, in part, by Barry Jenkins PASTEL. It's also distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt either. I'm bullish on its chances to screen at TFF.
Alfonso Cuaron-Raymond and Ray. Cuaron producing a Rodrigo Garcia directed film here (Garcia was at Telluride in 2011 with the Glenn Close starrer Albert Nobbs. The film's distributor is AppleTV+ which was at Telluride last year with The Velvet Underground.
And a special note here. Sort of a "Usual Suspect" Daina Oniunas-Pusic who had shorts at TFF in 2015-The Beast and 2016-Rhonna and Donna and is now directing Tuesday starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus. And it's from A24. (shout out to Jason Osiason who tipped me to this).
BABYLON STILL UP IN THE AIR
Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel is keeping tight tabs on the status of Damien Chazelle's Babylon. The latest word there is that its festival fate is still up in the air and it appears to be a tussle between Chazelle and Paramount. Ruimy writes in his July 8th post:
"At the time of this article, Paramount and Chazelle are still in disagreement over whether they should bring “Babylon” to the fall festivals."
Ruimy also reveals a ton of details about the film including its current runtime of nearly three hours and that there is buzz that the film could be rated NC-17. The link to Jordan's story is here BUT HERE IS YOUR SPOILER ALERT! The post is rather detailed.
ARMAGEDDON ARRIVES IN OCTOBER
The Playlist reports that Focus Features has dated James Gray's Armageddon Time for limited release on Oct. 18th. That dating allows for it to be a part of Telluride, Toronto and/or New York. The film premiered at the Cannes Fest back in May.
I have felt an upturn in its chances to be a Telluride selection in the last 2-3 weeks.
The film's IMDb description is as follows:
"A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream."
Armageddon Time stars Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins.
Again, looking at World of Reel reporting that Maria Schrader's She Said will likely have a trailer drop in the next couple of weeks. The film features Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan starring as the true life reporters who were instrumental in revealing Harvey Weinstein's abuse.
She Said is set for a Nov. 18th release.
WOR suggests that "The Oscar campaign for Maria Schrader’s “She Said” will kickstart with the trailer being released either next week or the week after that. Then, possibly a Telluride world premiere."
The single fly in the ointment in the film's TFF-ishness is that it's from Universal which has a sketchy TFF track record having, by my count, screened only three films there over the past 15 years:
2008-Flash of Genius
2015-Steve Jobs
2018- First Man
Still I have had it in the Ten Bets or on the list of additional possibilities since the first Bets almost three weeks ago.
Stay tuned as I will share the trailer as soon as it becomes available.
Since my last post a week ago the Cannes Film Fest has added the remaining titles for its 95th edition, named a Palme d'Or jury and an Un Certain Regard opening night film. Despite all of the new selections I ma hard pressed to put my finger on a single film that is suggestive of a leap from France to Colorado in early September.
After the initial round of films were announced I landed on these as the most likely unseen candidates to add to the tradition of films doing the Cannes-Telluride tango:
Multiple outlets reported yesterday that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths has been acquired for distribution by Netflix. Most readers of this space know that I have had Bardo on a number of preliminary lists for a slot at TFF #49 for quite some time based on Inarritu's extensive relationship with the festival for many years dating back to Babel in 2006.
The acquisition by Netflix only adds to the likelihood as the streaming giant has become a major player at Telluride over the last several years with films such as The Power of the Dog, Marriage Story and Roma all flying the Netflix banner at Telluride.
It seems likely enough that Ioncinema reported the story and included this comment:
"...expected to wrap by fall for what should be a Venice Film Festival premiere (plus Telluride), the Netflix folks are getting into the Iñárritu business landing the rights to revised title BARDO, Chronicle of a Handful of Truths."
In addition to the Ioncinema story, the acquisition was reported by:
I'm re-running this post that I originally put up on Saturday:
TFF #48 Passholders received an email from the festival last Friday informing us that we would need to provide proof of vaccination against Covid-19. The letter also requested that if we knew of people that were planning to attend the fest without a pass or were planning to attend free screenings that they would also need to be able to produce proof of vaccination. Here's that language from the email:
For any friends you may know who are intending to join us without passes, we appreciate you sharing this information. Individual indoor venues will have a vaccination card check point at each Box Office, for those wishing to buy individual tickets or enter a free screening.
Here's the complete text of the email to passholders:
We are grateful that you are considering returning to the Telluride Film Festival to join us after last year’s hiatus. We view our upcoming festival as an opportunity to celebrate renewal but with tremendous humility, acknowledging the tragic loss of life and social upheaval experienced around the globe.
Film is a magical instrument that often serves to bring people together – to celebrate it collectively, to experience emotions in the same room, and to live through the eyes of great artists as they point us toward a better future is something we are all looking forward to with delight.
To ensure a safe, as well as relaxed, few days in the mountains, we are asking all attendees who intend to join us this year to be vaccinated against Covid-19, as an act of kindness and community support, and to assist us in creating a secure environment for reconvening the Telluride experience.
Please take a moment to upload your vaccination card below. Receipt of this information will be required for admittance to Festival theaters and other indoor venues, including any shuttle services. We appreciate your understanding and commitment to a healthy re-opening of arts & culture experiences worldwide. For any friends you may know who are intending to join us without passes, we appreciate you sharing this information. Individual indoor venues will have a vaccination card check point at each Box Office, for those wishing to buy individual tickets or enter a free screening.
We are impatient for September to get here and to be together again. Take very good care until we see you!!
The wife and I submitted our proof of vaccination Saturday morning.
FUTURE TELLURIDE? INARRITU'S CURRENT PROJECT
Set photo from Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Limbo via El Univeral
We've seen and heard whispers about TFF favorite Alejandro Gonzlaez Inarritu's ongoing film project which appears to be titled Limbo.
The Film Stage (via El Universal) reported recently that filming in Mexico and set photos are giving some hints about what could be included as part of the plot/story of the film. According to The Film Stage post:
"From their reporting comes word Limbo concerns the Mexican-American War, production having constructed an exact replica of the Chapultepec Castle—site for the 1847 Battle of Chapultepec, a turning point wherein thousands of Mexican soldiers were slain. (Peep their site for a set photo lest the copyright hammer fall upon us.) Considering other set photos feature more modern-looking costumes, perhaps there is some time-jumping in the plot as the director explores Mexican history."
Considering Inarritu's substantial track record at Telluride, you have to keep an eye out for this as a possible selection for TFF #49.
Todd Haynes' documentary about the legendary band, The Velvet Underground, is set to play at Cannes within the next few days and there is some contemplation on my part that it could very well be a part of the TFF #48 lineup.
There's a teaser for the new film now available for viewing on Cannes' official webpage for the film.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is a stalwart fan of the Telluride Film Festival. He's been there a lot beginning in 2006 with Babel (it was my first year at TFF too) and following it with Biutiful in 2010 and Birdman in 2014. He's also been in town for the fest as a supporter for both Alonzo Cuaron and Guillermo Del Toro and, I believe, has attended once or twice just to attend.
Now comes news that he is working on a restoration of his first feature film, the Oscar nominated Amores Perros from 2000. Indiewire's Zack Sharf reports that the film maker has plans to screen it at the Morelia Film Fest in Mexico in October and a massive public screening in Mexico City in December.
One has to wonder, and I do, if the possibility exists that the new restoration might be rolled out over Labor Day weekend in Telluride. Sharf reports that Inarritu has already been working on the project for months and the October target for the Morelia screening suggests that there is at least a theoretical possibility that it could be ready for a Telluride bow.
It would make for an intriguing addition to the TFF #47 slate.
Jordan Ruimy at his website World of Reel completed and posted an enormous poll of industry folks: film makers, critiques, pundits etc. Somehow, I was invited and was more than happy to respond. We (some 175 of us or thereabouts) were asked to submit five titles, in no particular order, that we regarded as the best films of the 1990's. That post went up last Thursday.
My list of five: Goodfellas, L.A. Confidential, Magnolia, Pulp Fiction and Schindler's List.
When all was said and done, all five of the films from my list landed in the Top 20 of Ruimy's over all poll. Mine, in the order the finished: Goodfellas at #1. Pulp Fiction at #2. Magnolia at #7. Schindler's List at #13 and L.A. Confidential at #18.
No one matched my choices 5 for 5. I was 4 of 5 with The A.V. Club's Jesse Hassenger. Our only disconnect was my inclusion of L.A. Confidential. Hassenger had Fargo instead...which is a worthy choice.
There nine folks that I was 3 for 5 with including Telluride freinds Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter and Mark Johnson/Awards Circuit. Also Peter Howell from The Toronto Sun who had always been kind to answer my questions about the Toronto Film Fest.
Other notable participants included: David Ansen/Newsweek, Alex Billington/First Showing, film director Jim Cummings (Thunder Road), David Ehrlich/Indiewire, Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist, David Fear/Rolling Stone, Dave Karger/TCM, Eric Kohn/Indiewire, Eric Lavalee/Ioncinema, film director Rod Lurie (Straw Dogs), Scott Menzel /We Live Entertainment, Steve Pond/The Wrap, Claudia Puig/USA Today, Jeff Sneider/Collider, Glenn Whipp/The Los Angeles Times.
Jordan has also polled us on the best films of the 2000's ane I expect we'll see that poll very soon.
NEW RULES FOR DOCS AT THE OSCARS
Poster for last year's Best Doc Oscar winner: American Factory
Much as they did at the end of April, for feature films, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has re-worked the rules for Oscar eligibility for documentary films to reflect the challenges film makers are experiencing during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Basically, AMPAS has made it easier, for this year only, to qualify a documentary for Oscar consideration including screening at specific film fests, though Telluride is not on the list of those fests published by The Hollywood Reporter.
As best as I can tell, we got our first word about the status of the 47th Telluride Film Festival from a story posted on The Denver Post's "The Know" website. That story was posted Tuesday. The post focused on any number of film related activities in Colorado for the rest of 2020 and their status at this point in relation to the Covid-19 health crisis.
Included as a part of the story was an assessment concerning film festivals within the state including TFF #47. The relevant paragraph is here:
"The popular Film on the Rocks program at Red Rocks Amphitheatre is scheduled to go on as planned this summer, pending city restrictions, Erickson said. Separate from Denver Film, so is the 47th Telluride Film Festival, an internationally acclaimed event (scheduled for Sept. 4-7) where many Oscar-winning features make their debut, according to a spokeswoman."
So, the status at the moment for TFF #47 is a go.
Complicating matters, as I have been detailing here for the past few weeks, is the decision by organizers of the Cannes Film Festival to postpone that fest. Reports have been that the Cannes soiree is likely to be re-set for late June or early July. At least that's the plan for the moment.
The reality is that what form Cannes will take for 2020, when it will happen or even if it will happen still seem to be relevant questions. And, again, not to beat the drum too much, but the Cannes/Telluride overlap of titles from year to year is substantial averaging 7.5 films shared per year which, again on average, means that Cannes titles are somewhere in the neighborhood of nearly 20% of the feature films that screen at TFF.
The point being that whatever Cannes does will have some ripple effect in as far as TFF #47 os concerned.
More to come, as I will continue monitoring for whatever information I can find for both T-ride and Cannes in the coming days.
Now...speaking of Cannes...again....
25 FILMS FOR CANNES
In the midst of uncertainty regarding the fate and form of the 73rd Cannes Film Fest, Indiewire writers (Eric Kohn, David Ehrlich, Kate Erbland, Ryan Lattanzio and Zack Sharf) posted their 25 film Cannes wish list earlier this week. Not only is is a "wish list" but it's also a list of films with very high Cannes potential.
So, as is my custom, I took a look at what the Indiewire folks were pointing at and whether some of the films they are signaling might have a shot at screening at The SHOW.
Here's what I found as TFF possibles:
Annette/dir: Leos Carax. Why? It features one of last year's TFF tribute recipients, Adam Driver as well as TFF #39 tribute recipient Marion Cotillard. It's from Amazon Studios. It has no set U.S, release date but IMDb says it is set for a Nov. 27th release in Turkey.
Bergman Island/dir: Mia Hansen Love. Why? Hansen-Love has made Telluride appearances before: Goodbye First Love, Things to Come).
The French Dispatch/dir: Wes Anderson. "Hold up there Newt" my mind hears some of you saying..."The French Dispatch is set for release on July 24th". And, yeah, that's true...for the moment. I suspect that July 24th date was set with a Cannes bow in mind in May. Now that the Cannes date has changed, I think a whole different strategy might emerge for the film. The film is under The Searchlight banner (new since the Disney folks dropped the word "Fox" from in front of Searchlight) and I could see them deciding that a new release date after some fall fest presence might be a smart play even with a Cannes that premiered the film in late June/July. It's still an unlikely TFF choice but now it's not outside of the realm of possibility.
Summer of '85/dir: Francois Ozon. Ozon has played TFF before with 2016's Frantz.
Where Is Anne Frank/dir: Ari Folman. The director of Waltz with Bashir (TFF #35) returns with this animated meditation on Anne Frank.
The Woman in the Window/dir: Joe Wright. A film that was on my TFF #46 watchlist for some time and then got dropped when its release date was changed. It could be back in the convo for TFF #47 if it does make a Cannes appearance. Certainly there are plenty of TFF connectives involved: Wright who was at TFF #44. Stars Amy Adams (TFF #43 tribute), Jennifer Jason Leigh (TFF #20 tribute and back in 2007 with Margot at the Wedding), Gary Oldman (at TFF #44 with Darkest Hour). Writer Tracy Letts (at TFF #44 with Lady Bird). Who knows?
News from Mexico is that multiple Oscar winner and frequent Telluride presence, Alejandro Inarritu os prepping his next feature film.
Inarritu hasn't directed a feature since 2015's The Revenant. His last film at TFF was 2014's Oscar winner Birdman. He has also screened Babel and Biutiful at TFF as well as being a frequent guest and attendee of the fest often in support of Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity and Roma) and Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water).
The Film Stage reports that Inarritu has begun very preliminary prep work in Mexico City.
Despite the fact that The Revenant did not make a play at TFF, you still have to believe that, if the timing were right, a new Inarritu would be a very big possibility for a TFF bow.
This is your last Thursday in September 2016...hope it's a good one!
THE FAC LOOKS AT SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAY OSCAR CATEGORIES
The Film Awards Clearinghouse is back this Thursday with a look at the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories for Oscar glory as well as the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories. As always, The FAC uses the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following experts:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
After crunching the most recent data available, The FAC says that these are your front runners...
TFF #43 films are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Naomie Harris/Moonlight 2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
3) Nicole Kidman/Lion
4) Kristen Stewart/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5) Olivia Spencer/Hidden Figures
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women
7) Lupita N'yong'o/The Queen of Katwe
8) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls
9) Margo Martindale/The Hollars
10) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Liam Neeson/Silence
2) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins 3) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight 4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals
6) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
7) Stephen Henderson/Fences 8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This
9) Peter Sarsgaard/Jackie
10) Steve Martin/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
2) Fences
3) Silence
4) Lion 5) Arrival
6) Hidden Figures
7) Nocturnal Animals
8) Love and Friendship 9) Sully
10) Live by Night
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea 2) La La Land 3) Moonlight
4) Loving
5) Jackie
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) Florence Foster Jenkins
10) Captain Fantastic
Telluride analysis:
These categories, if the FAC were 100% accurate, would result in:
3 additional nominations for Moonlight
3 additional nominations for Manchester by the Sea
1 additional nomination for La La Land
1 additional nomination for Arrival
with Sully and Bleed for This adding an additional possible nomination.
The major eight categories when added to last week's First FAC for Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor give us the following totals:
6 nominations for Manchester by the Sea (Picture, Actor, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay)
5 nominations for La La Land (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay)
5 nominations for Moonlight (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay)
1 nomination for Arrival (Adapted Screenplay) with a chance at 3 more
No nominations for Sully but it's in the convo for a possible 3 nominations
1 possible nomination for Bleed for This
Overall, that's 17 nominations for TFF #43 films with another 7 possibilities and, of course, The FAC won't begin to look at other categories for some time yet but expect some additional nominations for TFF #43 films their as well. As a matter of fact, if you made me, I'd guess that La La Land is going to end up in double digit nominations and will probably be the nomination leader when those are announced on Jan. 24th.
FIRE AT SEA HAS A U.S. TRAILER
Fire at Sea (Fuocoammare) Gianfranco Rosi's Golden Bear/Berlin award winning documentary about the European refugee crisis and which played at TFF #43 a few weeks ago has a new U.S. trailer. The film is set for U.S. release on Oct. 21 in a limited fashion and then will expand from that point. Fire at Sea is being distributed by Kino Lorber. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
Alejandro Inarritu has had a strong relationship with cinematographer Ernest Lubezki (Birdman, The Revenant) as well as a real love affair with Telluride (Babel, Biutiful, Birdman) so when a new project is announced involving Inarritu and Lubezki, Telluride fans should take notice.
Which is to say, that the two visionaries have just announced plans to work on a virtual reality short film that would be centered on the crossing of immigrants from Mexico into the United States.
The project doesn't yet have a title but that's of little import. Of greater interest is the question of whether Inarritu returns to T-ride after having missed the fest last year when The Revenant was not ready for a Labor Day rollout.
The 87th Academy Awards closed the awards season last night with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman" (TFF 41) winning the big prize for Best Picture. "Birdman" also won for Direction, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.
Those were four of the seven won by Telluride programmed films. The others were single trophies for "Feast"-Best Animated Short, "The Imitation Game"-Best Adapted Screenplay and "Ida" (TFF #40)-Best Foreign Language Film.
For the fifth consecutive year and the sixth time out of the last seven years, the Best Picture winner ran through Telluride:
2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2010- The King's Speech
2011- The Artist
2012- Argo
2013-12 Years a Slave
2014- Birdman
Other winners from Sunday night were:
"The Grand Budapest Hotel"- Best Production Design, Best Costumes. Best Makeup/Hair, Best Original Score for a total of four wins to tie "Birdman" for the largest number of wins.
"Whiplash" picked up three awards: Best Supporting Actor-J.K. Simmons, Best Film Editing and Best Sound Mixing.
No other film had more than one win including the film that was thought to be the co-frontrunner with "Birdman", "Boyhood". "Boyhood" won only Patricia Arquette's Best Supporting Actress trophy.
Other winners:
Best Actor; Eddie Redmayne/"The Theory of Everything"
Best Actress: Julianne Moore/"Still Alice"
Best Doc: "Citizenfour"
Best Adapted Screenplay: "The Imitation Game"
Best Sound Editing: "American Sniper"
Best Visual Effects: "Interstellar"
Best Song: "Glory" from "Selma"
Best Animated Feature: "Big Hero 6"
Best Foreign Language Film: "Ida"
Best Animated Short: "Feast"
Best Short Doc: "Crisis Hotline"
Best Live Action Short: "The Phone Call"
Ina very weird turn, each of the eight Best Picture nominees won at least one Oscar.
The FAC went 20/24 on the night for 83% success on predictions. The FAC missed Film Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Score and Animated Feature.
That's it for Oscar coverage for this year. The Blog returns to its full time obsession with the Telluride Film Festival and the possible players for TFF #42.
Good Monday morning and salutations on your last Monday of 2014. MTFB/FAC returns after a week long hiatus with today's post but, fair warning, I will not be publishing a new post on New Year's Day. The next new post will come on Monday, Jan. 5, 2015 and the regular posting schedule of Mondays and Thursdays will resume then as we get down to a matter of days before Oscar nominations are announced (Jan. 15). Next Monday, I'll also post a new Film Awards Clearinghouse complete with every feature film category.
I hope that everyone has had a terrific holiday season thus far and here's wishing everyone a fantastic 2015! Happy New Year!
STARTING THE SERIOUS T-RIDE 2015 SPECULATION
OK...maybe not that serious...but...
Here's the way my process works, more or less in a chronological fashion.
1) Sundance and Berlin Festivals...Sundance announcements act as a nearly complete guarantee that those films will NOT appear at Telluride on Labor Day weekend. I can think of two exceptions over the nine years I've been going to Telluride: Tamara Jenkins "The Savages" in 2007 and Lone Sherfig's "An Education" in 2009. So, films that have already been announced for next month's Sundance ("Slow West", "True Story", "A Walk in the Woods" "The End of the Tour", Noah Baumbach's "Mistress America", ) are almost certainly off Telluride's table.
Meanwhile, the Berlinale almost always unearths a film or two that make the Telluride lineup so looking at the films announced for that fest can sometimes give you a signal. 2014's " '71" and 2013's "Gloria" are both examples of films that played Berlin and then made an appearance at Telluride.
Some of Berlin's 2015 lineup has already been announced. Will Terrence Malick's "Knight of Cups" make its way from its announced Berlin premiere to Telluride? (Probably not) How about Peter Greenaway's "Eisenstein in Guanajuato"? (MTFB reader Christopher Schiller thinks that's a real possibility). There are still more titles to be announced from Berlin and it's almost a certainty that one or two of them will be on our schedule come Labor Day. Berlin runs from Feb. 5-15.
2) Post-Oscar predictions...Almost immediately after the Oscars are announced on Feb. 22, enterprising analysts and bloggers will publish/post Oscar 2015 speculation and prediction lists. Those are often a lot of fun to cull for possible Telluride titles.
I looked back at what I posted the last couple of years based on the "Monday morning" post-Oscar speculation and found that the first post-Oscar post this year that included 2014 Oscar speculation (and, as a result for me , Telluride speculation) had mentions of "Birdman", "The Imitation Game", "Wild" and "Foxcatcher". I posted Oscar speculation lists from The Playlist, Sasha Stone's Awards Daily and The Atlantic just a week after last year's Oscars. The Playlist also had a brief mention for "The Homesman".
In 2013, The Hollywood Reporter had the first piece of Oscar 2014 speculation that I jumped on after Oscar 2013 was done. They included "Foxcatcher" (we didn't know we'd be a year premature), "Inside Llewyn Davis"and "Nebraska". So, the immediate post-Oscar speculation about the following year's Oscar prospects can give some good clues.
3) Cannes speculation, lineup announcement, presentations and awards. Cannes is a veritable smorgasbord of Telluride possibilities year in and year out. Cannes speculation and rumor starts early (it's already started for this year). I've made a lot of the Cannes/Telluride connection over the last few years and with good reason. The connection between the two fests is remarkable. In 2014 Cannes and Telluride shared "Two Days, One Night", "Foxcatcher", "Leviathan", "Mommy", "Mr. Turner", "Wild Tales" and "The Homesman" and that was just from Cannes' competition lineup. So keeping an eye on the rumors about what could play Cannes, the actual announcement of its lineup, the critical reactions as the films play and the awards that are announced at the end of the festival are all good ways to find possible Telluride films.
4) Summer...I begin to post six times a week the first week of June and that schedule continues right up to and through the festival. During those months I focus on a number of factors: Distributors, producers, film makers with a Telluride history and, of course, the speculation of the film media. Toward the middle of summer, speculation about Venice, New York and Toronto lineups can often provide clues. Which leads to...
5) This past year, the "Toronto" ultimatum and its subsequent listing of the films it announced for its lineup complete with that film's premiere status made Telluride speculation an easier and more certain prospect. That was true for this space but also for any number of major film media outlets as the announcements from Toronto proceeded last summer. If the process remains the same this year, then you can expect to have a pretty good idea of a bunch of Telluride's titles published/posted in a bunch of places.
The Toronto honchos are on record as having been very happy with how this worked in 2014 and have vowed to continue the policy in 2015. That said, there was some comment from the TIFF folks that there might be some "tweaks" with The Hollywood Reporter on Sept. 14th publishing this: "Both Bailey and Handling (Toronto Artistic Director and CEO respectively) said it was too early to decide whether the Telluride premiere policy will be tweaked, but that they will consult the industry ahead of next year's event." I wrote at the time that seemed like Toronto was giving itself some "wiggle room" to adjust the policy while still sounding bullish on its first year implementation. Personally, and I emphasize this is strictly me and strictly speculation on my part, it seemed the "industry" was none too keen on how Toronto played last year and I honestly have doubts that the Torontonians can have been all that pleased. When your big debuts were "The Judge", which may get a single Oscar nod for Robert Duvall) and "The Theory of Everything", which may end up with as many as half a dozen Oscar nods but is fairly likely to end up with bupkes on Oscar night...you may want to re-think the policy that created that situation.
Adding insult to injury was the fact that Telluride "premiere" "The Imitation Game" won Toronto's Audience Award despite not having the big opening weekend slot reserved for it.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if the Toronto policy is "tweaked" come this summer.
That said, I just read a post from The Hollywood Reporter yesterday that is a 2014 review of all things Canadian vis-a-vis the film business and that reporter seems to think that Toronto is just fine with the way events have played out.
So, there it is, a broad outline of how this thing bumbles along for six months of the year. And all of that is to get to this... Jeffrey Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere posted a "20 Films" list for 2015. Included there are some interesting Telluride possibilities:
The first T-ride possible mentioned is Alejandro G. Inarritu's "The Revenant" staring Leonardo DiCaprio. I've mentioned it here before. The film is listed as "filming" by IMDb at this moment, so the real conversation is whether it would be ready in time for a 2015 Telluride play. The key clue to look for: If it's finished and thick in the middle of Venice speculation and is ultimately announced for Venice, look for Alejandro in the San Juans for a "sneak" of the film.
Wells mentions the Scott Cooper directed "Black Mass" with Johnny Depp as real life, legendary gangster Whitey Bulger. Warner Brothers has the distribution for this film and could well return to Telluride in 2015. WB missed the party in 2014 but their success with "Argo" in 2012 and "Gravity" in 2013 makes me believe that "Black Mass" could definitely be a part of this year's Telluride conversation.
From Wells' list, those two films seem to have the greatest chance of playing in Telluride.
The Academy's Music Branch rejected the attempt to overturn their original decision disallowing Antonio Sanchez's percussion heavy score for Best Original Score Oscar consideration. Seems a shame. When I saw it in T-ride, I thought it was oppressive but when I saw it a second time over Thanksgiving, it seemed to have been slightly altered and was a much more appealing part of the film.
HitFix/InContention, The Hollywood Reporter and Variety carried stories, among other outlets, about the process and the appeal:
Additionally, in other "Birdman" news, Dave Karger's Fandango Frontrunners series on YouTube included a segment with Oscar candidate Michael Keaton. You can see that here:
Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game" continues to fare well in limited release. I saw, over the long holiday weekend at some point, the InContention's Kristopher Tapley thinks that it might be the film that wins the big prize on Jan. 22. I've said that as well.
For me, the calculation goes like this: "Boyhood" too long and not much really happens. "Birdman" too weird. "Selma" Questions about historical accuracy...which leaves you with : "The Imitation Game" against which the biggest "knock" seems to be "not gay enough"...Now, this isn't what I'm saying...just some of the narratives that I've seen being spun and, frankly, among a good part of the Academy "not gay enough" won't hurt it. What's left? "The Theory of Everything"? The lack of serious buzz for director James Marsh makes me dubious. "Whiplash"? JK Simmons win is fore-ordained at this point, otherwise, no.
So. perhaps it is "The Imitation Game" that wins out. I wouldn't be surprised.
I have included a couple of links to posts focused on "The Imitation Game". The first is from Variety's "Directors and Their Troops" series that looks at the technicians behind the camera that make the film happen:
FEINBERG'S LATEST FORECAST, GURUS OF GOLD AND THE GOLD DERBY
In lieu of an update from The Film Awards Clearinghouse and because Oscar ballots are out today into the hands of Academy members, here are the links to the latest postings from Oscar expert Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter as well as the latest compilations of experts from The Gurus of Gold/Movie City News and The Gold Derby (according to them all, "Boyhood" is still the overwhelming favorite...so my boldness on "The Imitation Game" above..maybe is folly):
William H. Macy's Oklahoma-centric (filmed in state and co-written by Okies Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison) is showing up here and there on some end-of the -year Ten Best lists. Congratulations "Rudderless" crew! You can see it on lists from Crave Online and WeLive Film.com:
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