The Usual Suspects / Babylon Still Up in the Air / Armageddon Arrives in October / She Said Trailer Coming

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

Each summer around this time I take some time to check out what Telluride's "Usual Suspects" have in the pipeline that could end up on the list films named to the TFF lineup.  The process is not always predictive but there have been many times when it has.

The striking thing this year is that there seem to be fewer "Usual Suspects" projects that could be in the pipeline.  That said...

Werner Herzog-The Fire Within which world premiered at the Sheffield Doc Fest last month.  The film focuses on Katia and Maurice Krafft who were featured in Herzog's 2016 Into the Inferno.  The couple were also the subject of a documentary that premiered at Sundance earlier this year: Fire of Love.

Ken Burns- The U.S. and the Holocaust.  The three part series is set to begin screening on PBS stations on Sept. 18th which suggests to me that a Telluride showing of some and perhaps all of the episodes are screened at TFF #49.

Paul Schrader-The Master Gardener.  Schrader has been represented at Telluride many times over the years: The Card Counter, First Reformed, Adam Resurrected.  I'd normally think that Master Gardener would be a Telluride lock BUT- Schrader has been announced as the recipient of this year's Venice Film Fest's Golden Lion award for Lifetime achievement.  How Venice schedules that presentation and where in their schedule they program The Master Gardener likely will determine whether Schrader's film plays Telluride.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu-Bardo.  There was some back and forth occurring last week as to whether the film would be playing any fall fests.  At the end of the week the notion seemed to land on "probably".  My guess is a Venice early slot followed by a jump across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Inarritu has presented Babel, Biutiful and Birdman at Telluride. He's also been in town for Cuaron's Roma and Del Toro's The Shape of Water. I am expecting, if Bardo is ready for it to be at TFF #49.

Jean Pierre and Luc Dardennes- Tori and Lokita- The film premiered at Cannes, which, if anything, bolsters the probability that it makes its way to The SHOW.  The Dardennes have made a number of appearances at TFF:  The Child, The Kid with a Bike and Two Days One Night-their last TFF film in 2014.

Sebastian Lelio-The Wonder.  Lelio has made a splash at Telluride in recent years: Gloria in 2013 and A Fantastic Woman in 2017.  The wonder is also a Netflix title, which doesn't hurt.  

Bill Pohlad-Dreamin' Wild.  Pohlad has been a supporter of Telluride as well as a producer of films that play there for a good long while: A Hidden Life, Wild, 12 Years a Slave, Into the Wild, Fur, Brokaback Mountain.  Pohlad has a couple of directing credits including Love & Mercy which did not play Telluride but did screen at the Toronto Fest.  The film is also in the Focus Features bin.  

Producers that could be represented at TFF #49 that are "Usual" as well.

Martin Scorsese-The Eternal Daughter.  Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon will not be ready for fall fests and likely wouldn't play them even if it was. However, Scorsese is often represented at Telluride in his capacity as a producer: The Card Counter, Uncut Gems, Bleed for This.  Eternal Daughter is also being distributed by A24.

Barry Jenkins-Aftersun.  Aftersun played well at Cannes winning the French Touch Prize of the Critics' Week Jury and was produced, in part, by Barry Jenkins PASTEL.  It's also distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt either.  I'm bullish on its chances to screen at TFF.

Alfonso Cuaron-Raymond and Ray.  Cuaron producing a Rodrigo Garcia directed film here (Garcia was at Telluride in 2011 with the Glenn Close starrer Albert Nobbs.  The film's distributor is AppleTV+ which was at Telluride last year with The Velvet Underground.

And a special note here.  Sort of a "Usual Suspect" Daina Oniunas-Pusic who had shorts at TFF in 2015-The Beast and 2016-Rhonna and Donna and is now directing Tuesday starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus.  And it's from A24. (shout out to Jason Osiason who tipped me to this).

 BABYLON STILL UP IN THE AIR

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel is keeping tight tabs on the status of Damien Chazelle's Babylon.  The latest word there is that its festival fate is still up in the air and it appears to be a tussle between Chazelle and Paramount.  Ruimy writes in his July 8th post:

"At the time of this article, Paramount and Chazelle are still in disagreement over whether they should bring “Babylon” to the fall festivals."

Ruimy also reveals a ton of details about the film including its current runtime of nearly three hours and that there is buzz that the film could be rated NC-17.  The link to Jordan's story is here BUT HERE IS YOUR SPOILER ALERT!  The post is rather detailed.

ARMAGEDDON ARRIVES IN OCTOBER

The Playlist reports that Focus Features has dated  James Gray's Armageddon Time for limited release on Oct. 18th.  That dating allows for it to be a part of Telluride, Toronto and/or New York.  The film premiered at the Cannes Fest back in May.

I have felt an upturn in its chances to be a Telluride selection in the last 2-3 weeks.

The film's IMDb description is as follows:

"A deeply personal coming-of-age story about the strength of family and the generational pursuit of the American Dream."

Armageddon Time stars Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins.  

The story from The Playlist is here.

SHE SAID TRAILER COMING

Again, looking at World of Reel reporting that Maria Schrader's She Said will likely have a trailer drop in the next couple of weeks.  The film features Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan starring as the true life reporters who were instrumental in revealing Harvey Weinstein's abuse.

She Said is set for a Nov. 18th release.

WOR suggests that "The Oscar campaign for Maria Schrader’s “She Said” will kickstart with the trailer being released either next week or the week after that. Then, possibly a Telluride world premiere."

The complete WOR post is linked here.

The single fly in the ointment in the film's TFF-ishness is that it's from Universal which has a sketchy TFF track record having, by my count, screened only three films there over the past 15 years:

2008-Flash of Genius

2015-Steve Jobs

2018- First Man

Still I have had it in the Ten Bets or on the list of additional possibilities since the first Bets almost three weeks ago.

Stay tuned as I will share the trailer as soon as it becomes available.

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Ten Bets #4 for TFF #48 / The Usual Suspects 2021 / The Card Counter Moves Up / Alloy Is No More

 TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #48

Well, after last week's embarrassing inclusion of Val, I'll try to ne a bit more circumspect with the newest Ten Bets.  Also of note here is that this should be the last Ten Bets prior to the announcement from Toronto (expected next Tuesday) of a number of their selections.  If TIFF follows recent protocol, they will announce titles with premiere status included from which we can reverse engineer some titles that could play Telluride.

Toronto has already announced 13 films that will screen and Focus Features has revealed that Edgar Wright's Last Night in Soho and Kenneth Brannagh's Belfast will both World Premiere at TIFF.

At this point, I'm more or less confident that almost all of the other 13 films that were included on the TIFF pre-announcement list will also likely be World Premieres as well.  That list included: Celine Sciamma's Petit Maman, Theodore Melfi's The Starling and Alison Klayman's Jagged.

The one film on that TIFF pre-announcement list that I still think might be in the Telluride conversation is Denis Villenueve's Dune.  It seems to me that Toronto has been coy with the language that they have used with regard to its status.  We know that Dune will World Premiere at Venice (reportedly on Sept.3rd),  TIFF has billed its screening of Dune as a "World Exclusive IMAX presentation" which sounds way more impressive than "Canadian Premiere".

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns. Burns and McMahon

3) Something(s) from Mark Cousins***

4) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar

5) The Card Counter/Schrader

6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

7) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Val/Poo, Scott

10) Mothering Sunday/Husson

Here is the fourth iteration of the Ten Bets for TFF #48:

1) Something from Mark Cousins***

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns. Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) The Power of the Dog/Campion

5) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar

6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

7) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Julia/Cohen and West

10) Spencer/Larrain

Other Possibles: Dune, Where Is Anne Frank?, Paris 13th District and The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday and Bergman Island.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

If you've been a Telluride obsessive for any length of time, you'll have noticed that there are a number of film makers that have be included as a part of the fest several times.  Paying attention to those "Usual Suspects" and whether they have films available for screening can sometimes give you some solid guesses about what films could make the TFF #48 list.

Therefore, in alphabetical order, here are some of The Usual Suspects that could make an appearance at T-ride 2021:

Jacques Audiard: Paris 13th District

Ken Burns: Muhammad Ali

Mark Cousins: The Story of Looking, The Storms of Jeremy Thomas, The Story of Film: The Next Generation

Asghar Farhadi: A Hero

Mia Hansen-Love: Bergman Island

Todd Haynes: The Velvet Underground

Werner Herzog: Last Exit: Space

Roger Michell: Elizabeth

Jason Reitman: Ghostbuster: Afterlife (I'm semi-serious about this)

Paul Schrader: The Card Counter

Martin Scorsese: The Card Counter (Exec. Producer)

Denis Villenueve/Dune

THE CARD COUNTER MOVES UP

Rumors that writer/director Paul Schrader let slip that his new film, The Card Counter starring Oscar Isaac, will play both Venice and then Telluride move that title up in this week's Ten Bets (see above).  The film moves back up to its #3 spot where it began on the very first Ten Bets three weeks ago.

The Car Counter has been on all four Ten Bets lists and always within the top five.

Reporting about the Schrader mention came from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel and Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeff Wells.

ALLOY IS NO MORE

Word from an anonymous source this week that the famed Alloy Orchestra is no more.  I had an email from a friend pointing me to an article from WBUR, Boston's NPR station.  Jim Sullivan writing on July 8th:

"All things must pass. Or, perhaps, mutate.

After three decades, Alloy Orchestra is no more. (Ken)Winokur has exited; (Terry)Donahue and keyboardist Roger Miller, who joined in 1998 after (Caleb)Sampson’s death, continue on under a new moniker, Anvil Orchestra. Larry Dersch, who’d played with Miller in a previous band, Trinary System, will take Winokur’s spot in the new group.

The Anvil Orchestra makes its debut in Athens, Greece on Aug. 27, once again accompanying “Metropolis.” 

The Alloy Orchestra had become a Telluride Film Fest institution providing music for a number of silent film presentations as a part of the fest for years.

Here's a YouTube video of The Alloy Orchestra scoring the silent version of The Phantom of the Opera from July of 2020.

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First Signs of Beale Street / The Usual Suspects -Part One 2018 / The Favourite Teaser Appears

Welcome to Tuesday, July 10, 2018...


THE FIRST SIGNS OF BEALE STREET

Stefan James, Kiki Layne, Regina King and Barry Jenkins at Essence Fest

One of the most hotly anticipated titles of the fall has to be Oscar winner Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.  The film is the writer/director's follow up to the thrice Oscar winning Moonlight.  It's an adaptation of the James Baldwin novel of the same name.

That alone would be enough to pique the interest of Telluriders but adding fuel to the fire has been the relative quiet surrounding the film.

There is a good deal of speculation that it will play Venice and I have had it at the number one spot on this summer's first Ten Bets lists for TFF #45.  We also know that its one of the films that Annapuna Pictures is distributing this fall...as Megan Ellison's production company adds distribution to its list of services.  Other films in their lineup include: Backseat, The Sisters Brothers and Destroyer.

All that to get to the story that Jenkins and some of the actors in the film: Regina King, Stephan James and Kiki Layne, were featured in a Q+A about the film at New Orleans' Essence Fest this past weekend.

Here's the 14 minute interview from YouTube:

I found the interview via a story from Awards Watch and that story is linked here.

More coverage is here from BlackFilm.com and also from Hollywood Elsewhere.

If Beale Street Could Talk is not yet scheduled for release in the United States.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS-PART ONE 2018

If Beale Street Could Talk director and TFF Usual Suspect Barry Jenkins

There are a number of people that have, over the years have become frequent players at Telluride.They're folks that may not always be there and even if they are there, they don't always have a project that screens at the fest but often times you can predict some of the choices for the fest based on The Usual Suspects and what they do have to offer.

For example...Barry Jenkins...who has been a part of the fest in a variety of ways for a decade and a half.  That's why his If Beale Street Could Talk is at the top of the Ten Bets list.

Steve McQueen-His Hunger, Shame and Oscar winner 12 Years a Slave all screened at Telluride which leads one to think that Widows is a good bet.  I've been holding back on putting it in the Ten Bets because the film's description seems less Telluride-y than McQueen's previous efforts.  Still, it wouldn't surprise if it were to screen at T-ride.

Jacques Audiard-Audiard has been represented thrice at TFF 1996- A Self Made Hero, 2009-A Prophet and 2012-Rust and Bone.  However his Palme D'or winning Dheepan wasn't at The SHOW in 2015.  His The Sisters Brothers could get him back to the San Juans.

Alejandro Inarritu is a great example of a "usual suspect" who attends even when he doesn't have a project.  That happened last year when he was in town to support his amigo Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water.  I suspect that could happen again this year for Alfonso Cuaron's Roma.  Cuaron, himself would become a "usual suspect" this year if Roma plays.  I think that could happen.

Jason Reitman- At one point Reitman was a sure TFF bet as he ran off a series of SHOW entrants: Juno (07), Up in the Air (09) and Labor Day (13) but Young Adult and Men, Women and Children which might have played The SHOW did not.  Reitman could return this year with The Frontrunner.  There's a decent chance that could happen.

I'll look at more of  "The Usual Suspects on Thursday.

THE FAVOURITE TEASER APPEARS

Yorgos Lanthimos has made a big splash on the art house circuit over the past few years with The Lobster and The Killing of a Sacred Deer including an Oscar nomination for writing The Lobster.

This year he has directed the historically based The Favourite set during the reign of Queen Anne in Britain in the 1700's.  Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone star and the film is reportedly more "accessible" than either Lobster or Scared Deer.  As it is from Fox Searchlight, this might be the year that a Lanthimos film makes the TFF lineup.

All of that reminder material is to get to the fact that the film had a teaser/trailer release on Monday.  Here it is from YouTube:

The Favourite is scheduled for release on Nov. 23rd.

That's your Tuesday MTFB.  More to come on Thursday.


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TIFF in a Week / The Usual Suspects 2017 / Mr. Osiason Says... / Redford and Fonda at Venice

Good Tuesday everyone...

TIFF IN A WEEK

The word is that the Toronto International Film Festival will have their first announcement of films for their fest a week from today.  For those of you that have been reading this space for a long time, you know what that means.  For those of you that are new or have been casual readers, here's why that's important:

TIFF will announce each film complete with its "premiere status".  (Venice will too).  When they do that [as we have seen with New York's announcement that Last Flag Flying is a world premiere, so it will not be seen at Telluride] that will tell us some things that allow us in many cases to determine whether a film will/won't or could play TFF #44.  New York's recent announcement that Todd Haynes' Wonderstruck will be its Centerpiece as a "New York" premiere indicates an almost certainty of a Telluride play.

Fort example, if George Clooney's Suburbicon is announced as a World Premiere next Tuesday at TIFF that means it will not play Telluride.  If it's a North American premiere...no Telluride.

If a film is an International premiere...that depends on where else it has already played or will be announced to play. If it's a Canadian Premiere and didn't play Sundance or Tribeca...it's almost certainly headed to Telluride.

Toronto won't announce it's whole lineup but it's crucial to note that the overlap between Toronto and Telluride is historically impressive.  Last year the fests shared 22 titles.  That level of crossover may not quite happen this year owing to TIFF's announcement earlier that they will program 20% fewer titles this year so that should mean a bit less of an overlap.

TIFF will  have other announcements each week as we wind down the summer and we'll need to pay attention to each just as we'll need to scrutinize announcements from Venice, New York and London.

But don't sweat figuring that all out...That's what MTFB is here for.  I'll probably have a special Wednesday edition next week to analyze the TIFF announcement.


THE USUAL SUSPECTS 2017

As I do each summer...here's a look at some of the people that often have projects that land at Telluride, what this year's project is and an assessment of that project's chances of making the TFF #44 lineup:

Ken Burns: Vietnam documentary...25%
Werner Herzog-Exec. Prod. on A Gray State...10%
Alexander Payne-Downsizing...80%
Paul Schrader-First Reformed...10%
Wim Wenders-Submergence...20%
Todd Haynes-Wonderstruck...85%
Alejandro Inarritu-V.R. Installation Carne y Arena...30% (if I could believe that Telluride could find a suitable venue...)
Michael Haneke-Happy End...50%
Stephen Frears...Victoria and Abdul...30%
Lynne Ramsay-You Were Never Really Here...50%
Errol Morris-The Lure...35%
Agnes Varda-Visages/Villages...70%
Ritesh Bakta-Our Souls at Night...20% (see below)
Aki Kaurismaki-The Other Side of Hope...35%
Sebastain Lelio-A Fantastic Woman...40%


MR. OSIASON SAYS...

Jason Osiason is a friend of MTFB and a cinephile to make note of.  He digs as deep as anyone I know with regard to film world so when he makes a practice of sussing out/predicting what will happen there, you'd do well to take note.

Jason has been posting his predix for Telluride choices this summer and, in a spirit of providing my readers with as big a picture as possible, here are his latest comments re: TFF #44:

Jason also added Scott Cooper's Hostiles as a possible and You Were Never Really Here as "hard to believe these don't go".



REDFORD AND FONDA AT VENICE

The Venice Fest announced yesterday that Robert Redford and Jane Fonda will be honored there and their film Our Souls at Night from director Ritesh Bakta will World Premiere there on Sept. 1.

MTFB friend Kenny Miles points out that, despite the WP at Venice, that the film could play there and make the jump to Telluride for Sunday and Monday screenings.  He also makes the point that the film was filmed in Colorado which he believes boosts its chances for a SHOW spot.  That point is very well taken.

My original response was to think that the Venice announcement made the film's TFF #44 appearance unlikely but Mr. Miles analysis makes some sense.  So, I'm not ruling out the film's chances for a T-ride play.

Here's the story of the Venice selection from The Wrap.


That's your Tuesday...more will be here on Thursday...

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Torotno and Venice-What to Expect This Week / Rumors of Rumors, Wells' New Take and a Modified Ten Bets List / The Usual Suspects / Meyer Reports on the Summer

Welcome back from the weekend...sorry to say, that means this is Monday...


TORONTO AND VENICE-WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

Two major film festivals that make their plays in the same time frame as Telluride will begin making announcements this week about the films that will make up their lineups.

The Toronto International Film Festival begins a series of weekly announcements tomorrow with its first wave of Galas and Special Presentations.  They'll continue with weekly announcements every Tuesday thereafter for a month.  The Venice Film Festival will announce the bulk of their lineups for various sections on Thursday.  However, Venice has been known to add a few films after their main reveal and that could certainly happen again this year.

If they continue to follow the protocol of the past couple of years, both Toronto and Venice will include, as a part of those announcements, the premiere status of every film they introduce.  Film detectives can then use the revelation of those statuses as a way to deduce, with a fair degree of certainty, whether or not a film will make a play at Telluride.

Up until these fests began doing that (and requiring distributors and film makers to reveal whether their film was playing at Telluride) the business of making Telluride predictions was till completely guesswork.  Now, any outlet can make the same deductions as I will and MANY OF THEM WILL.

The key words to look for this week will be:

World Premiere
International Premiere
North American (or European) premiere
Canadian Premiere

You also have to keep in mind other fests that have already occurred this year and what films played there: Sundance, Berlin, Cannes, Karlovy Vary, Tribeca are all fests that likely have screened some of the films that will be revealed tomorrow or over the next few months.  Combine all these factors and you can get an idea what films will probably play Telluride.

For example, last year, TIFF announced in their initial lineup announcement that Room, Son of Saul, Anomalisa and Black Mass would all be "Canadian" premieres which allowed anyone who knew that status and the fact that those films hadn't played at any other festival earlier to deduce that they'd almost have to be playing T-ride...which, of course, they did.

Applied to this year, as another example,  if we see that Warren Beatty's Rules Don't Apply is a Toronto World Premiere or North American Premiere we will know that it is not playing The SHOW.

Also, keep in mind that as Toronto announces tomorrow, that they will also be aware of films that will be announced for Venice on Thursday.  Additionally, Venice's announcements are important because some films will play Telluride first and then Venice rather than the other way around. Anomalisa, Taj Mahal and Heart of a Dog did that last year.  In 2014, no film opened at Telluride first and then went to Venice (there were four).  In 2013, Palo Alto, Under the Skin and The Unknown Known played T-ride first.

Finally, I can tell you that the last ten years tell us that Telluride and Toronto, on average, will ultimately share 17.5 films after TIFF makes all their reveals.  Over that span, the overlap has varied from a low of 12 in 2008 to a high of 22 in 2011.

Venice and Telluride have an average share of 3.7 films over that same ten year span.  However, recent years (2012-2015) have averaged six films overlapping.   2008 was also the low year for the Venice/Telluride connection with no films making the trans-Atlantic jump.  The two fests shared a high of eight films with each other in both 2013 and 2015.

So...that's the nuts and bolts, friends.  Toronto announces live tomorrow morning at 10am EDT.  You can watch that announcement live at this link:

http://tiff.net/festivals/festival16/pressconferences

Venice announces Thursday.


RUMORS OF RUMORS WELLS' NEW TAKE AND A MODIFIED TEN BETS LIST

You can tell that the fur is about to fly regarding the news to come out of Venice and Toronto this week as there is a good deal of buzz about what films could go where.  Over the weekend, I heard, saw, read or was contacted about three films that various sources are suggesting could be Telluride players.  Two of them are films that have been in posts as possible T-ride players but have never risen to the level of confidence enough to make any Ten Bets list (though one of them has been on the "close" list a time or two) The other, I have been dismissing as being a Sundance film and, as a result, unlikely to be a Telluride choice and it IS NOT Birth of a Nation.  I have added all three to last Friday's films that are "close" to making the Ten Bets list.  That's below.


Meanwhile, late last night Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere posted his thoughts about the emerging Telluride picture.  Wells writes that Birth of a Nation is out but that Manchester by the Sea is likely going to play Telluride.  He also says that Nocturnal Animals and Loving are both not going to play the SHOW and reiterates his already stated belief that Personal Shopper is off the T-ride list. He also rules out Silence, Rules Don't Apply and Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk.

In addition to the above mentioned Manchester by the Sea Wells says Telluride is a landing spot for La La Land, Neruda and Arrival.  He suspects that The Salesman, Graduation and American Honey are probable as is Toni Erdmann.

You can see Wells' post in its entirety here:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2016/07/no-birth-of-a-nation-at-telluride/

One other interesting note.  None of the films Wells suggests are probable for Telluride would be screening there initially.  I have to believe that, as in past years, we'll almost certainly have some films that will be screening for the first time in public in a non-testing fashion.

By the way, both Hidden Figures and Ben Affleck's Live by Night have been test screening recently. Chew on that for a moment.

This week's Ten Bets has been modified for today's post with a revised "close" list.

10) The Unknown Girl
9) Arrival
8) Things to Come
7) American Honey
6) Moonlight
5) La La Land
4) The Salesman
3) Toni Erdmann
2) The Red Turtle
1) Fire at Sea

Close: Lion, Aquarius, Denial, A Monster Calls, 20th Century Women, Paterson, Dog Eat Dog, Manchester by the Sea, Bleed for This, The Sense of an Ending.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS 2016

Every year I take a look at a list of humans that have had or continue to have a relationship with the Telluride Film Festival.  The list I keep has about 50 people on it and is loaded with directors mostly. There are a few actors sprinkled in there but my experience is that, if you're trying to figure out Telluride. your best plan is to look at distributors, directors and what plays at Cannes.

So, here's this year's assessment of The Usual Suspects that have projects that could conceivably make the Telluride lineup..it's not all 50...

Pedro Almodovar-Julieta.  Has so much going for it.  SPC distributing, played at Cannes,  Almodovar is a past recipient of a tribute...but...Almodovar hasn't had a film play Telluride since 2006.  Chances: 40%

Andrea Arnold-American Honey.  Played Cannes.  A24 is ditrib.  Well regarded critically.  Chances 50%

Olivier Assayas-Personal Shopper.  Played Cannes, IFC Films is distrib. but split reviews at Cannes and Jeff Wells report that T-ride directors didn't care for the film make it unlikely.

Gael Garcia Bernal-Salt and Fire and Neruda.  The actor has two projects that could make the lineup. Werner Herzog's Salt and Fire and Pablo Larrain's Neruda.  Salt and Fire is probably a 50% chance and Neruda is a 40% chance.

Ken Burns-Defying the Nazis: The Sharp's War.  The PBS documentary is set to air on Sept. 9.  It wouldn't stun me if it screened.  Chances 60%.

The Dardenne Brothers-The Unknown Girl- The Dardennes are Telluride darlings but muted reaction to this film in Cannes has me scratching my head about its TFF #43 chances. Recent word that the brothers had cut seven minutes from the film didn't help my process.  I can't decide if that makes it more or less likely.  Still, it is the Dardennes, so I have chosen continue to include it in my Ten Bets. Chances-60%.

Francis Ford Coppola-Distant Vision.  Coppola was an early and often participant in Telluride and then stopped attending for many years.  Lately, however, he has come back.  His latest project is an experiment with what he calls "live cinema" and that he workshopped originally in my home state at Oklahoma City Community College.  He just recently produced another experiment with it at UCLA. I think it's possible that some version of it makes its way to Telluride.  Chances 50%. 

http://www.indiewire.com/2016/07/francis-ford-coppola-ucla-live-distant-vision-hybrid-1201709333/

Werener Herzog- Salt and Fire is a narrative feature and stars the above-mentioned Gael Garcia Bernal and Michael Shannon.  In the past, I would have thought that a Herzog film was a slam dunk 100% easy "play" prediction but after last year's Herzog absence, I'm not quite as certain.  I'd love to get Michael Shannon into town.  Chances-50%

Laura Linney-Sully and Nocturnal Animals.  The actress and part time Telluride resident (and past TFF tirbute recipient) often has work make the fest: Hyde Park on Hudson, The Savages, Jindabayne. Sully could play, it opens Sept. 9 but I kind of doubt it.  Nocturnal Animals is more likely (after a Venice premiere).  Of course, you never know...maybe she'll be a double dip.  Chances-Sully 20%, Nocturnal Animals-35%

Mira Nair-The Queen of Katwe.  Nair has had some history with the fest but "Queen" is coming from Disney which has had a very limited relationship with the fest.  Chances-10%.

Alexander Payne-Wilson.  At one point Payne was going to direct the film but ended up producing. The film's distrib is Fox Searchlight.  I've consequently had it on my Ten Bets list most of the summer...but...recent rumblings suggest that it's not the lock I had expected.  Chances-10%.

Bill Pohlad-A Monster Calls.  Pohlad is a long time Tellruide friend and also a producer and director. His T-ride footprint has included 12 Years a Slave, Wild, Into the Wild.  He's a producer on A Monster Calls from distrib A24.  We could see it.  Chances-50%.

Lone Scherfig-We Happy Few.  The director hasn't played T-ride since 2009's An Education and this film may be the one I know the least about on the entire list.  So...you know...it probably comes out of nowhere to make The SHOW.  Chances-20%.

Paul Schrader-Dog Eat Dog.  Schrader's film was reasonably well received in Cannes.  I actually think it has adecent shot at the lineup.  Chances- 55%.

Martin Scorsese-Bleed for This, Silence.  Scorsese's connection to the festival in recent years has been as a producer with docs: The 50 Year Argument, Living in the Material World, A Letter to Elia. There's good reason to believe that his producing credit will show up on a screen in Telluride for a feature  with Bleed for This.  Silence is another matter entirely.  I expect that if it plays a festival it'll be New York as either its centerpiece or closing night film.  Chances-Bleed for This 60%, Silence-10%

Bertrand Tavernier-A Journey Through French Cinema.  A documentary from frequent T-ride guest about French film.  Sounds like it's right down T-ride's alley.  It also played at Cannes and is under the wing of the Cohen Media Group which has been well repped at T-ride the last couple of years. This should maybe be on the Ten Bets list.  Chances-70%.

Wim Wenders-The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez.  Wenders has been a T-ride fixture in recent years and the fact that this film is generally thought to be "in" for Venice makes me think it's a good pick for Labor Day.  Chances-55%.

That's this year's look at The Usual Suspects.

MEYER REPORTS ON THE SUMMER

Gary Meyer, who is a former co-director of the Telluride Film Festival and now runs the website EatDrinkFilms.com, not surprisingly spent some of his summer thus far watching and occasionally offering mini-reviews of largely independent film at that website.

Thought you might like to take a look at some of what he's been up to here:

https://eatdrinkfilms.com/2016/07/20/gone-with-the-summer-breeze/

https://eatdrinkfilms.com/2016/07/17/where-have-all-the-movies-gone/

Gary looks at Life Animated, Hunt for the Wilderpeople, Sing Street and many others in two separate articles that you can find there.


That's all for now.  With tomorrow's Toronto First Wave, there will probably be more than one post. Stay tuned...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

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The Usual Suspects Part Three/"Dheepan" International Trailer Appears/New Views of "45 Years"

Welcome to Thursday... Children of the Corn...


THE "USUAL SUSPECTS" PART THREE

Today's look at the "Usuals" is a bit different than Parts One and Two.  We begin with two directors who might be on their way to "Usual" status but aren't quite there yet.

Starting with Ariel Vromen who had "The Iceman" at Telluride in 2012.  His latest is "Criminal" starring Ryan Reynolds and Kevin Costner.  It's distributed from Summit Entertainment which, to the best of my abilities to research. has never had a film at T-ride but they've also had plenty of films that would have been T-ride worthy: "50/50", "The Hurt Locker", "Michael Clayton".  The film is scheduled for release in January 2016.  Chances to play: 10%.

The other potential "Usual" is Matteo Garrone who played Telluride in 2008 with his "Gomorrah".  His 2012 film "Reality" played Cannes but was not on the SHOW program.  This year his "Tale of Tales" also played Cannes.  It's his English feature debut and stars Selma Hayek and John C. Riley among others.  I actually think this has a decent shot of making the Telluride lineup.  Chances for The SHOW: 40%.

The individuals in today;s discussion qualify for "Usual Suspect" status but if they attend Telluride this year, it will be in some unusual circumstances.

For example, Alejandro Inarritu.  Inarritu would normally be right at the top of this year's "Ten Bets" list of his "The Revenant" was ready but it will NOT be ready in time for Labor Day.  Instead, if Alejandro is in town, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if he is, it'll be as a fan or in support of a friend, as he was in 2013 for Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity".  I've speculated in this space before that this could be the year that Guillermo Del Toro joins the Telluride club following in the path of his "Tres Amigos" brothers, Inarritu and Cuaron with the highly anticipated "Crimson Peak".  Now, there are more reasons to think that it won't happen than there are to think it will but I don't think it's a completely crazy proposition either and if Del Toro does SHOW and Inarritu is done with re-shoots of "The Revenant" (reportedly he will be) then I believe Alejandro might be in town.

Another "Usual" that has come back to the Telluride fold after having been away for a long time is Francis Ford Coppola.  Coppola has come back the past two years and could return this year with some presentation of the project he began in Oklahoma City this spring: "Distant Vision" his "live cinema" experiment.  It wouldn't stun me if that were to happen.

Finally, there's Steve McQueen who doesn't have a feature film in play but has been working on his own HBO limited series "Codes of Conduct'.  McQueen has clearly been a favorite of the festival with "Hunger" ('08), "Shame" ('11)and "12 Years a Slave" ('13) all making the SHOW.  I could see the fest featuring the HBO show.  The fest has dipped its toe into television long form presentations in the past with "Red Riding" "Burning Bush" and "Carlos" so this wouldn't be the craziest of guesses.  Again, the first key is it if it's ready.


"DHEEPAN" INTERNATIONAL TRAILER APPEARS

I'd be shocked if Jacques Audiard's Palme d'Or winner, "Dheepan" doesn't play Telluride.  It has been riding high on my "Ten Bets" list all summer and barring some strange news from the announcement of the Toronto film lineup over the next few weeks, that won't change.

The film's first trailer appeared online from both The Film Stage and The Playlist yesterday.  It's an international trailer meaning that the subtitles are in French.  Still, it's intriguing.  Here it is:

"Dheepan" trailer via YouTube

And here are the stories from The Film Stage and The Playlist:

http://thefilmstage.com/trailer/first-trailer-for-jacques-audiards-palme-dor-winner-dheepan/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-first-international-trailer-for-jacques-audiards-palme-dor-winner-dheepan-20150722

And, also from The Film Stage, "Dheepan" has a new poster as well:

NEW VIEWS OF "45 YEARS"

Andrew Haigh's "45 Years" has been high on my list of possible Telluride films since it debuted in Berlin in February.  The film has won rave reviews fro the performances of Charlotte Rampling and Tom Courtenay.  It's distribution is being handled by Sundance Selects.  Perhaps the only reason that suggests that it isn't a Telluride possibility is that it has and will have had played a pretty substantial number of fests (Berlin, Istanbul, Edinburgh, Karlovy Vary...others).

Late last week, The Playlist posted a couple of new clips and the film's poster.  Take a look at the clips and the article here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-2-clips-and-new-poster-for-andrew-haighs-berlin-award-winner-45-years-20150720

That's enough for today...more tomorrow...including the last "Ten Bets" list before the first Toronto announcement on Tuesday.

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The Usual Suspects Part Two/"The Revenant" News/The Guardian on the Fall Season

Welcome to Wednesday film fans...



THE "USUAL SUSPECTS" PART TWO

I'm continuing my metaphorical stroll through some of the directors, producers and others who seem to have a personal and frequent connection to Telluride to parse their participation to see if there are clues for the TFF #42 lineup.

Today we start with actress Laura Linney.

Linney hasn't appeared at the fest since 2012's "Hyde Park on Hudson".  For a good long while I thought she'd be back this year with Bill Conden's "Mr. Holmes" starring Sir Ian McKellen.  Then, some months ago, Fox Searchlight dated the film for a July release (it opened last weekend).

But fear not Linney fans, she's still in the TFF #42 possibility game as she appears also in Michael Grandage's "Genius" which is in the Lionsgate stable.  The film was listed by IMDb as being in post-production in February.  The film also stars Nicole Kidman, Jude Law and Colin Firth (TFF tribute 2010). Grandage is a first time director.

Our next "Usual Suspect" for today's post is Stephen Frears.  Frears is an interesting case.  He hasn't had a film at the fest since 2010's "Tamara Drewe" but was reportedly supposed to have had "Philomena" sneak in 2013 only to have it pulled at the last minute (The Weinstein Company replaced it with "Salinger").  Another story that I heard was that Frears was approached to be Guest Director for the 2013 fest but couldn't due to other obligations.

If all that's true, then Frears still is in the Telluride orbit.  His current project that could make the grade for TFF #42 is his long gestating Lance Armstrong examination "The Program" starring Ben Foster as Armstrong and Chris O'Dowd as the journalist who kept after the allegations of doping that eventually caught up to the multiple Tour de France winner.  The film is currently without U.S. distribution.

Number three on today's look at "Usual Suspects" is Wim Wenders. Wenders has been coming to Telluride since 1978 and has played there with "Paris, Texas", "Faraway, So Close", "Pina" and last year with "Salt of the Earth"  This year he has a feature film called "Every Thing Will Be Fine" that stars James Franco and has played the Berlin Fest.  The film wasn't received all that warmly in a critical sense, but Wenders past connection with Telluride might be enough to get the film into the lineup.  The film's U.S. distribution is still up for grabs.

Our final "Usual" for this Wednesday are the Dardenne Brothers.  Now, I can hear some of you saying, "Wait, Michael.  The Dardenne don't have a film in the can."  And you're right.  But they do act as producers on a film that may have some Telluride legs:  Benoit Jacqout's "Diary of a Chambermaid" which stars Lea Seydoux (who made the trip to Telluride in 2013 with "Blue is the Warmest Color").  "Chambermaid" played Berlin in February and a couple of other fests and has U.S. distribution from the Cohen Media Group.  That distributor was last represented in Telluride in 2012 with "The Attack".

These factors might edge the film into the T-ride lineup.

So, in review, your chances for each of these four (five, if you count both Dardennes) "Usual Suspects" and their projects:

Linney/"Genius" 30%
Frears/"The Program" 35%
Wenders/"Every Thing Will Be Fine" 30%
Dardennes/"Diary of a Chambermaid" 20%

Tomorrow's "Usual Suspects" will be a little different as I'll look at two directors who are close to being "Usuals' as well as three fellows that are "Usuals" that would be doing something unusual if they were to come to this year's SHOW: Ariel Vromen, Matteo Garrone, Steve McQueen, Alejandro Inarritu and Francis Ford Coppola.



 "THE REVENANT" NEWS...

Alejandro Inarritu's "The Revenant" moved up on my wish list this past weekend with the release of a fantastic teaser/trailer.  Admittedly, the film isn't going to be ready in time for Telluride as word is that the crew is re-shooting a sequence in South America (where it is winter).  I have mentioned that I have some serious concern whether it will be ready TO go by its stated Dec. 25th release date.

Adding some fuel to that concern was a weekend tweet from The Playlist that asked if Fox was really likely to release both "The Revenant" and David O. Russell's "Joy" on the same date, as is now what is announced.

As if in answer to these concerns, Jeff Well/Hollywood Elsewhere posted late Monday night a piece concerning the re-shoot plans and timing based on a translated version of an interview with Inarritu. The good news, the post suggests that the film will be done earlier than thought.  The bad news, still not early enough to make it to Telluride.  Wells extrapolation suggests that it could be finished by late September/early October.  AFI Fest perhaps?

Here's the link to the Wells post:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/07/revenant-will-actually-ready-sooner/

In other "Revenant" news, Chris Connelley was up yesterday at Grantland with a big piece on the film and interviews with DiCaprio and Inarritu.  If you're excited about the film, as I am, it's worth a read:

http://grantland.com/features/exclusive-leonardo-dicaprio-and-alejandro-g-inarritu-on-the-revenant/


Additionally, I have linked this Rope of Silicon story about cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki's interview about the difficulties in making the film here:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/emmanuel-lubezki-talks-shooting-the-revenant-and-frozen-monitors/

THE GUARDIAN ON THE FALL SEASON

The Guardian's Nigel M. Smith posted his take on 40 films that he feels have the most serious Oscar potential late yesterday.  Included in the assessment of each of the 40 films, if they haven't already appeared at Cannes, are his guesses about where the films might show up in the fall festival lineup, including a number of Telluride guesses.  They include:

"Adam Jones" Dir: John Wells.  Stars Bradley Cooper.  Distrib: The Weinstein Company.  Release Date: Oct. 2.

"Black Mass" Dir: Scott Cooper. Stars: Johnny Depp, Benedict Cumberbatch. Distrib: Warners.  Release date: Sept. 18. (Parenthetical note...please let this be true...and the smoke is gathering that it might be).

"The Danish Girl" Dir: Tom Hooper.  Stars: Eddie Redmayne, Alicia Vikander. Distrib: Focus Features.  Release date: Nov. 27.

"Everybody Wants Some" Dir: Richard Linklater. Stars: Tyler Hoechlin. Distrib: Paramount Pictures.  Release date: TBD.

"Freeheld" Dir: Peter Sollett.  Stars: Julianne Moore, Ellen Page. Distrib: Lionsgate. Release date: Oct. 2.

"I Saw the Light" Dir: Marc Abraham.  Stars: Tom Hiddleston, Elizabeth Olsen. Distrib. Sony Pictures Classics. Release date: Nov. 27.

"The Light Between Oceans" Dir: Derek Cianfrance.  Stars: Michael Fassbender, Alicia Vikander.  Distrib: TDB.  Release date: TBD.

"Manchester-by-the -Sea" Dir. Kenneth Lonergan.  Stars: Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams.  Distrib: TBD.  Release date: TBD (but perhaps 2016).

"The Program" Dir: Stephen Frears.  Stars: Ben Foster, Chris O'Dowd.  Distrib: TBD.  Release dates: TBD.

"Suffragette" Dir: Sarah Gavron.  Stars: Carey Mulligan, Helena Bonham Carter.  Distrib: Focus Features.  Release date: Oct. 23.

"Truth" Dir: James Vanderbilt.  Stars: Robert Redford, Cate Blanchett.  Distrib: Sony Pictures Classics. Release date: TBD.

Among the Cannes debuts that Smith mentions that I feel have some shot at playing at Telluride are:

"Carol", "Son of Saul", "Macbeth" and "Youth"

And the films that Smith pegs as possible plays for Venice that I feel are also possible for T-ride:

"A Bigger Splash", "A Hologram for the King", "Our Brand is Crisis".

Other films that Smith includes in the list of 40 that might have Telluride legs would be "Steve Jobs".

Read the whole piece here:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/jul/21/and-the-oscar-may-go-to-40-key-movies-in-contention-for-2016-awards


That's enough for today...more tomorrow...

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New Views of "Two Days"/Clues are Coming/Best of the Week: Ten Bets #4, The Usual Suspects and More

Welcome to Saturday and I hope your weekend is off to a good start.


NEW VIEWS OF "TWO DAYS"

The Playlist posted a slew of new images from Jean Luc and Pierre Dardennes "Two Days, One Night" starring Marion Cotillard on Friday and I have passed that along to you with a couple of those photos here

as well as a link to the story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/new-images-from-the-dardenne-brothers-two-days-one-night-starring-marion-cotillard-20140718


CLUES ARE COMING

The Toronto International Film Festival is expected to begin announcing their lineup of films early this coming week.  That announcement is expected to come Thursday.  IF the Toronto requirement that film makers adhere to a strict policy regarding World and North American premieres then we should be able to use the announcement to eliminate some films for Telluride inclusion.  This assumes that the announcement will include the "premiere" status of each film, and, though Toronto has included that status in announcements in the past, there's no guarantee that they will in this year's set of announcements.  Though, even the choice not include a film's "premiere" status might tell us some things.

The other factor is whether or not the various studios/distributors play ball 100%.  I can envision a scenario much like the past few years wherein Toronto announces a "world" premiere that still sneaks beforehand at Telluride.

Like screenwriter William Goldman said, "Nobody knows anything".  Still, parsing the information we should get this week will be fun.

BEST OF THE WEEK: TEN BETS, THE USUAL SUSPECTS AND MORE

TEN BETS #4

Here's this week's predictions for the 41st Telluride Film Festival via the latest "Ten Bets"

First, here are last week's "Ten Bets":

10) The Look of Silence
9) Red Army
8) Winter Sleep
7) Foxcatcher
6) The Roosevelts
5) Leviathan
4) Queen of the Desert
3) Mr. Turner
2) Two Days, One Night
1) Birdman

And now, this week...

10) Wild

9) Red Army

8) Foxcatcher

7) The Look of Silence

6) Leviathan

5) The Roosevelts

4) Two Days, One Night

3) Mr. Turner

2) Queen of the Desert

1) Birdman

THE USUAL SUSPECTS...

THE USUAL SUSPECTS TFF #41 EDITION: PART ONE

Over the last week, I did my annual rundown of U.S. film distributors that have a had at least some semblance of a relationship with the Telluride Film Festival and attempted to bring a critical eye to the offerings of each of those companies in terms of what might make the grade for TFF #41.  Today, I shift the focus away from companies and onto individuals, primarily directors, but occasionally producers, writers and actors that have also appeared frequently at Telluride.  I call them "The Usual Suspects".  I have a list of around three dozen people that make the list.

It's also a list that fluctuates with the times.  Had I been writing this 35 years ago Francis Ford Coppola and Martin Scorsese would have probably made the list.  Not now, despite Coppola's return to Telluride last year.  For the purposes of this blog, I will sometimes re-add someone who has fallen off as you will see Peter Bogdanovich included later this week.

I won't be including all 35-36 because not all of the members of "The Usuals" have a film ready to play. Ultimately this year's list of "Suspects" numbers 14 who have a total of 16 films between them that are Telluride-possible.  I'll break it into three parts beginning with Part One today.

Let's start withe the most usual of the suspects which is Werner Herzog.  A Telluride without Herzog is a rare thing and the film maker almost always has some project that is ready for display.  This year is no different as Herzog's name is attached to two films that could, and I suspect will play at TFF #41,  Herzog directs "Queen of the Desert" which is reportedly ready and which Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeff Wells flat says is a lock for Telluride.  I agree.  It's #4 on last week's "Ten Bets" list.

In addition to "Queen" which stars Nicole Kidman, Herzog is also a producer of the Joshua Oppenheimer directed documentary "The Look of Silence" which is the sequel to "The Act of Killing" which played Telluride as well.  I'm a pretty firm believer that this film will make the 2014 T-ride lineup as well. Accordingly, I have "Look of Silence" listed at #10 on last week's "Ten Bets".

Another big time "Usual" is documentary film maker Ken Burns.  Burns and Herzog share insider status at Telluride.  Both are regarded as part of the T-ride hierarchy.  Burns is also almost always there and almost always has a project available to be programmed.  This year he has "The Roosevelts" ready...it's scheduled to run on PBS just days after the festival concludes.  Consequently, I have it listed at #6.  

Another quick note about Burns.  I made a big deal last year that I thought that Burns would aid in the programming of the Native American silent film "Daughter of the Dawn".  I thought that was going to happen for most of last year and I was wrong, of course.  But I wouldn't be shocked if the film didn't pop up at this year's festival.

Usual suspect #3 is Errol Morris.  Morris is working away on a couple of his own projects but is, like Herzog, a producer of Oppenheimer's "Look of Silence" giving that film an even higher likelihood of making the Telluride lineup.

Usual Suspect #4 is Alexander Payne.  No one (with the exception maybe of Jason Reitman) has made his way onto the list of "The Usual Suspects" more quickly than Payne has over the past few years.  Problem is that Payne doesn't have a strong candidate for inclusion this year.  Payne is listed as an executive producer of "Kumiko: The Treasure Hunter" which might get it some traction had it not played a bunch of festivals already including Sundance and Nantucket here in the U.S.

I suspect that Payne will be attending this year's fest in Telluride because he loves the festival.  It's also a better than even  bet that he programs a film which is not his own as he has done before. 

Perhaps, this year, Payne will simply be in support of companion Laura Dern.  Last I knew, they were still an item and Dern could easily be a "Telluride Twofer" this year as she appears in Jean Marc Vallee's "Wild" and Ramin Bahrani's "99 Homes" both of which could play the festival.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS 2014 PART TWO

I'm continuing my rundown of common players at Telluride fests that have films thought to be ready for presentation.  Yesterday I wrote about Herzog, Burns, Payne and Morris.  Today...

Mark Cousins...Cousins has been a part of the Telluride program in four of the last five years and I suspect that he'll return this year.  He has a documentary that he co-directed with Iranian film maker Mania Akbari.
The film is described as a conversation/discourse between the two.  "Life May Be" has played the Edinburgh and Karlovy Vary Fests this summer.  I think there's a very high probability that this film plays.

Iranian film maker Mania Akbari (via The Guardian)

"Life May Be's " IMDb page is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3592704/?ref_=ttco_co_tt


Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu... Inarritu has become a fixture at Telluride.  Both "Babel" and "Biutiful" played the fest and Inarritu attended last year in support of his friend, Alfonso Cuaron, for a little picture called "Gravity".  It may be instructive to know that "Gravity" played Venice and then came to Telluride.

As I'm sure you know, Inarritu's "Birdman" will open the Venice fest on Aug. 27th.  T-ride opens Aug. 29...so I really expect to see "Birdman" at Telluride.  My questions are: Will Keaton come along? (A Keaton tribute?) and will Cuaron return Inarritu's favor and just be a guest this year...because that wouldn't surprise me at all.  Nevertheless, count on "Birdman" (it's at # 1 on the last week's Ten Bets).

"Birdman's" IMDb page:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2562232/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_2


Mike Leigh...the writer/director has been at Telluride a number of times.  He's been a long time player at TFF beginning over a quarter century ago with 1988's "High Hopes".  He's also been at TFF with "Secrets and Lies" in '96 (he was the recipient of a tribute) , "Happy Go Lucky" in '08, and "Another Year" in '10.

Now, Leigh has "Mr. Turner" ready after its competition run at Cannes in May and Timothy Spall's win for Best Actor there. I fully expect "Mr. Turner" to make an appearance at TFF #41 and further, I suspect Mr. Spall will attend as well.

"Mr. Turner's" IMDb page is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2473794/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1

Jean-Luc and Pierre Dardennes...have also become regulars at Telluride over the past few years.  They tribute recipients in 2005 which included the presentation of  "The Child" and were back in 2011 with "The Kid with a Bike".  This year, they have "Two Days, One Night" starring another TFF Tributee, Marion Cotillard.  Sundance Selects has the distribution, so all of these factors considered make me believe that "Two Days" is also a likely Telluride play.

My question here is": "Will Marion return to Telluride?"  That question has an additional component in that she has another film that could play, Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" with Michael Fassbender in the title role. Could Cotillard double dip at T-ride?  I hope so!

Here's the link to the "Two Days, One Night" IMDb page:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2737050/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1


And finally, today's last "Usual Suspect" is Olivier Assayas.  Assayas fits a familiar profile listed in a number of the "Usual Suspects" mentioned above.  His film "Clouds of Sils Maria" played well at Cannes.  Juliette Binoche was named Best Actress for the film at Cannes by the International Cinephile Society.  But of all the "Usual Suspects" listed today, Assayas has, perhaps, the sketchiest Telluride resume.  His "Irma Vep" played in 1996 and "Carlos" in 2010.  His 2012 film "Something in the Air" played Venice, Toronto and New York but not Telluride.

All of these factors have made me a bit squeamish about "Clouds of Sils Maria" making it onto Telluride's program.  I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm much less bullish about its chances than any of the other "Usuals" listed in today's blog.

I also wouldn't be stunned if a Juliette Binoche tribute was a part of a package that included the presentation of "Clouds".

Its IMDb page is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2452254/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_7

THE USUAL SUSPECTS 2014 PART THREE

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach in Telluride in 2012 (photo via Kristy Patterson)

Today we start with Noah Baumbach.  Baumbach is interesting "Usual Suspect" this year as he may...and I stress "may", have two potential projects that could play the fest.  Baumbach's past with Telluride includes "Margot at the Wedding" in 2007 and his collaboration with Greta Gerwig in 2012, "Frances Ha".

Baumbach has collaborated again with Ms. Gerwig in what is still being referenced as "Untitled Public School Project".  IMDb lists it as being in post-production as of late April.  If you'll recall, however, "Frances Ha" was similarly under-the-radar when it appeared at Telluride two years ago.

The other Baumbach project seems to be farther along and more is known about it.  Entitled "While We're Young" it stars Ben Stiller, Naomi Watts and Amanda Seyfried.  It is also listed by IMDb as being in post as of late February.

My expectation is that one of these two films play Telluride.  Each would have its merits.  I love me some Greta Gerwig, loved "Frances Ha" and am curious about what she and Baumbach might have cooked up. On the other hand,  the inclusion of "While We're Young" might also get Ben Stiller in town on Labor Day weekend and I would add him to my currently imaginary panel of comic actors working serious that at the moment would include Michaell Keaton from Inarritu's "Birdman" and Steve Carell from Miller's "Foxcatcher".

Again, I'll bet one if not both Baumbach's play.

IMDb pages for "While We're Young" and "Untitled Public School":

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1791682/?ref_=nm_flmg_wr_1

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2872462/?ref_=nm_flmg_wr_2

Stephen Frears

Stephen Frears...if reports are to be believed, and I do believe them, was supposed to have been a late addition to Telluride last year with "Philomena".  That didn't work out.  There was even some rumor floating about that Frears might have been Guest Director or one of them but that didn't work out either.

Nevertheless, Frears has another project this year that could make appearance and that is his "Untitled Lance Armstrong Biopic" starring Ben Foster as the now disgraced bicyclist.

Frears was the recipient of a TFF tribute in 1987 that included a screening of "Sammy and Rosie Get Laid' and was back in 2010 with "Tamara Drewe".

My feeling is that this is an "iffy" proposition for Telluride.  IMDb lists it as being in post-production as of mid-January but Frears (despite my listing him as an "Usual") has a hit and miss record with T-ride.  It's also difficult to assess what effect the events of last year might have.

Ultimately, I think the chances of us seeing the Frears project this Labor Day is about 30%.

IMDb:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3083008/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1

Next up is Wim Wenders.  Wenders was an early Telluride participant and then came back strong recently. Wenders, like Baumbach, has a couple of projects that could show at The SHOW.  First, his Cannes documentary "Salt of the Earth" that looks at the life of photographer Sebastiao Salgado.  The film won a couple of awards at Cannes and is in the Sony Pictures Classics stable so you have to think it's a very real T-ride possibility (I've already had it on my "Ten Bets" list this summer).

Wim Wenders

The other Wenders project is the feature film "Every Thing Will Be Fine" which stars James Franco and Rachel McAdams.  It is listed as being in post-production as of last month.  I think that it's much less likely to show up on the program.

"Salt" chances: 60%

IMDb:

 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3674140/?ref_=nv_sr_1

"Every Thing" chances: 20%

IMDb:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1707380/?ref_=nm_flmg_dr_1

Lone Scherfig

Then there's Lone Scherfig.  Scherfig played Telluride in 2001 with "Italian for Beginners" in 2001 and was back again in 2009 with "An Education" (in one of those really rare instances where a film played at Sundance and then at Telluride...it happens about once a decade).  Scherfig has a new film in post-production called "Riot Club" starring Natalie Dormer which focuses on Oxford's "Riot Club".  The film is set to premiere in England and Ireland on Sept. 19th so a Telluride play would work nicely for it.  The lack of a U.S. distribution deal may slow its chances, however.

Right now I'd give "Riot Club" only a 25% chance of playing Telluride.

"Riot Club's" IMDb:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2717860/?ref_=nv_sr_1

Finally, today, two guys that used to be "Usuals" that might return to the party.

John Boorman is listed on Telluride's "Esteemed Council of Advisers" and has been for a good long time as has Peter Bogdanovich.

Peter Bogdanovich and John Boorman

Boorman has a sequel in the can of his Oscar nominated "Hope and Glory".  This film is entitled "Queen and Country".  Bogdanovich also has a film entitled "Squirrels to the Nuts" which reportedly hearkens back to the film maker's heyday of comedies like "Paper Moon" and "What's Up Doc?"  It stars Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson as well as past Bogdo stars Cybil Shepherd and Tatum O'Neal.

IMDb for "Queen and Country":

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2392810/?ref_=nv_sr_1

Of these two, I feel "Queen and Country" has a reasonable shot to make the lineup...say 40%.  "Squirrels" seems to be less likely to me.  Out its chances at 25%.

IMDb for "Squirrels":

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1767372/?ref_=nv_sr_1

THE USUAL SUSPECTS ADDENDUM

We come to the close of the week with a quick look at a couple of names that might otherwise be included in the "Ten Bets"...

In past years, I have included Jason Reitman's films with regularity in terms of Telluride guesswork but this year is different because of the pressure that Toronto has brought to bear on the programming status of films.  Consequently, I am expecting that Reitman will skip Telluride this year and take "Men, Women and Children" to Toronto and quite probably New York later on.

Also, I would, in most years, have thought David Cronenberg's "Maps to the Stars" would have been a prime Telluride possibility but owing to Toronto's insistence and Cronenberg's probable fealty to Canada and TIFF, I expect it will go that way as well.

WILD MAKES AN APPEARANCE

Jean Marc Vallee's follow up to "Dallas Buyers Club" is "Wild' starring Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon.
Over the last few days we have seen a new poster appear as well as a trailer for the film.  Here's the trailer:

"Wild" Trailer via YouTube

 and the poster:

Friend of MTFB Kris Tapley, writing at HitFix, seems to think that "Wild" could be a Telluride choice as you'll see when you read this post from the weekend:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/wild-trailer-reveals-a-de-glammed-reese-witherspoon-hiking-the-pain-away

Here is a another post about the trailer:

http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx?news=877035

A NEW FILM TO CONSIDER

Al Pacino as "Manglehorn" (photo via Hollywood Elsewhere)

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere suggested yesterday that David Gordon Green's "Manglehorn" will play at Telluride.  The film stars Al Pacino as an Austin, TX. based ex-con who can't let go of his past.  Honestly, this film hasn't been on my Telluride radar in  any significant way up until now, but you have to take Wells pretty seriously.

Pacino previously was a guest at Telluride in 2000 with his very own "Chinese Coffee".

Here's the link to the Wells story:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/07/got-life-leave-alone/

And "Manglehorn's" IMDb page:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2893490/?ref_=ttco_co_tt

If it comes to pass, do I smell an Al Pacino tribute?

A LOOK AT HERZOG'S "QUEEN"

The Playlist, among others, posted the first official photo of Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" which, as noted above, I fully expect to be included as a part of the TFF #41 program.

The film has been described as something like David Lean's classic "Lawrence of Arabia" and is based on the true story of Gertrude Bell with Nicole Kidman in that role.  

Above is the photo and here's the link to the The Playlist's accompanying story:

http://theplaylistfilm.tumblr.com/post/91744429801/first-look-werner-herzogs-queen-of-the-desert

POLAND ON TELLURIDE VS. TORONTO

Movie City News' David Poland added his two cents (actually more than two) to the whole Toronto ultimatum concerning premieres, their first weekend and Telluride's programming.   It's a lengthy article and has some interesting, thought-provoking things to say about the situation.  It also includes a proposal for a compromise concerning independent, small and/or foreign films caught in the vortex of Toronto's demand.

Take a look at it here:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/07/weeks-to-oscar-toronto-telluride-and-collateral-damage/

"GONE" TO NYC

"Gone Girl" trailer from YouTube

Variety posted last night that David Fincher's "Gone Girl" will open the New York Film Festival and though I have been consistent in saying it wasn't likely for Telluride, this announcement makes it all but official.  Check the Variety story here:

http://variety.com/2014/film/awards/gone-girl-to-open-new-york-film-festival-exclusive-1201263704/

Incidentally, the announcement stirred up some Twitter traffic about other possible NYFF possible choices for closing night and the mid-fest special screening and as a part of that there was some further mention that there is some buzz about Nolan's "Interstellar" playing Telluride.  Rumors are rumors, but it's still fun to think about.

DEADLINE TALKS "GONE GIRL" SELECTION

Deadline has weighed in after the announcement earlier this week concerning David Fincher's "Gone Girl" and its selection as the opening film for the New York Film Fest.

Pete Hammond dropped a few interesting tidbits not the least of which was the word that Warner Brothers (which has had a great run the last two years at Telluride with "Argo" and "Gravity") has no plans to play T-ride this year..  That, if true, would definitively remove "Inherent Vice" (which I have thought was unlikely all along) as well as "The Judge" and "The Good Lie" from the Telluride list of possibilities.  Up until that comment, I had thought "Good Lie" and"The Judge" might be real possibilities.

Hammond does suggest that he believes that Telluride is likely to have "Birdman", "Wild", "Foxcatcher" and "Mr. Turner"...all of which appear on the latest "Ten Bets" list above.

And the most intriguing note at the end of the post regards the hot rumor that "Interstellar" is a real possibility.

Check Hammond's entire post here:

http://www.deadline.com/2014/07/gone-girls-nyff-announcement-fuels-fall-festival-oscar-season-speculation/

More on Monday...have a great weekend!