MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting / Belfast News / Interviews: Stewart, Ahmed, Isaac / The Lost Daughter Trailer

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTING

Here's an update for my predictions of  the lead acting categories for the 94th Academy Awards.  As always, TFF #48 performers are in Bold. The performers' last position in these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses.  These categories were last predicted on Oct. 7th.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)

2) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)

3) Frances McDormand/The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (New)

5) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci (4)

Alternates: Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers and Jennifer Hudson/Respect

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)

2) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (3)

3) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (2)

4) Peter Dinklage/Cyrano (4)

5) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (5)

Alternates: Clifton Collins/Jockey and Joaquin Pheonix/C'mon C'mon

BELFAST NEWS

* Won the Audience Awards from both the Middleburg and Mill Valley Film Festivals this past week.  Here's that story from Sasha Stone at Awards Daily.  Incidentally, The Rescue won for Best Documentary at both fests and C'mon C'mon won Audience Favorite for U.S. Cinema at Mill Valley.

*Jumped to a larger lead on the Gold Derby odds for the Best Picture Oscar.  Here that is from Gold Derby.

*Focus Features dropped a new trailer for the film.  Here that is from YouTube:

INTERVIEWS

Variety's Clayton Davis with Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

Variety's Matt Donnelly with Riz Ahmed (Encounter)

Indiewire's Eric Kohn with Oscar Issac (The Card Counter)

THE LAST DAUGHTER TRAILER

Netflix released a first trailer on Monday for Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter which stars Olivia Colman, Dakota Johnson and Jesse Buckley.  The film is due Dec. 31st.  Here's the trailer from YouYube:

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The Thursday After / Blog Biz / What's Next? Posters / Teasers and Trailers / The People's Telluride

THE THURSDAY AFTER

So another TFF is in the books.  We arrived back home about 9:30 on Monday night.  I had planned to catch King Richard and attend the picnic and then leaving but decided at the last minute to head home early.  I hate that we missed the picnic and the chance to hobnob one last time but it also felt good to get home before midnight especially since I was back in my classroom on Tuesday.

Fest stuff:

I saw fewer films (even with the extra day) this year than normal.  Chalk it up to a more leisurely approach to the fest.  In order of preference they were:

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Cyrano

Land of Gold

Julia

The French Dispatch

The Velvet Underground

BLOG BIZ

With the addition of The Card Counter to the program that meant that MTFB went 24/25 for the Final Bets with an additional couple of correct predictions from the "Other Possibles" category: Bergman Island and Unclenching the Fists.

The single miss was The First 54 Years.

Additionally, from the original Ten Bets list back in June, MTFB had eight titles on that list that played the fest.  Here's a re-look at those predictions from June 24:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

Don't discount the possibility of: Dune, Julia, Mothering Sunday, Petite Maman, Where Is Anne Frank?, Paris 13th District and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Missed on Nightmare Alley and Blonde.  From the "possibility" list that also made the TFF #48 lineup: Julia and Petite Maman.  Without backtracking...that might be the best initial Ten Bets since I started predicting in that manner.

WHAT'S NEXT?

The Professionals and the People's Telluride film ratings will coming in the next week or so.  After they post I'll do what I call the Combination Telluride.  As is the usual case, I'll also begin to talk about the Oscar season with the focus being on the films that played at TFF #48.

Also, per suggestion of an MTFB reader, I'm going to work on adding a section that contains all of the ratings that I have compiled over the years.

POSTERS

***BELFAST

***THE CARD COUNTER

***THE HAND OF GOD

***BERGMAN ISLAND

***C'MON C'MON

***ENCOUNTER

TEASERS AND TRAILERS

***BELFAST

***BERGMAN ISLAND

***C'MON C'MON

***ENCOUNTER

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the ninth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".  This years People's cutoff date is SUNDAY, SEPT. 12TH.

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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FINAL BETS / The Guests and Tributes / Cousins Looking Trailer / Crazy Thoughts / Lists of the Fall Films That Are Must-Sees / The People's Telluride / Can You Say Hurricane Nora?

 FINAL BETS...

Here we are TFF fans. The program should drop on Wednesday.  The forecast looks wet (***see below) so make sure you bring an umbrella.

Here, without any guarantee of accuracy are my Bets for what will be revealed on Wednesday.

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Card Counter/Schrader

3) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

4) Spencer/Larrain

5) A Hero/Farhadi

6) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

7) The Hand of God/Sorrentino

8) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

9) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

10) Julia/Cohen and West

11) Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

12) Cyrano/Wright

13) Petite Maman/Sciamma

14) King Richard/Green

15) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

16) Encounter/Pearce

17) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

18) The First 54 Years/Mograbi

19) The Lost Daughter/Gyllenhaal

20) Three Minutes-A Lengthening/Stigter

21) Flee/Rasmussen

22) Red Rocket/Baker

23) The Story of Looking/Cousins

24) The French Dispatch/Anderson

25) The Same Storm/Hedges

Other Possibles: Prayers for the Stolen,  Last Exit: Space, Unclenching the Fists, A Chiara, The Starling, Bergman Island.

For me...hot titles are French Dispatch, Power of the Dog, Card Counter, C'mon C'mon, Louis Wain, Hand of God, Flee, King Richard and A Hero.  That could change.  If The Starling SHOWS...it'll probably go on my list.

THE GUESTS AND TRIBUTES

I have no way of knowing who will and won't physically be in Telluride this week.  In a non-Covid world there are a number of cool candidates who could be on the guest list and in consideration for Tributes.  So, I'm approaching this as if it were a non-Covid year though I expect that the numbers of talent in town may be smaller as a result of the pandemic and could we see some folks remotely?  

Nevertheless, looking at the feature films that I have on the Final Bets we could see the following around Telluride this week:

The Power of the Dog: Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, Kodi Smit-McPhee

The Card Counter: Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, Willem Dafoe

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain: Benedict Cumberbatch, Claire Foy

Spencer: Kristen Stewart, Sally Hawkins

A Hero; Asghar Farhadi

C'mon C'mon: Joaquin Phoenix

Cyrano: Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennet, Ben Mendelsohn, Kelvin Harrison, Jr.

King Richard: Will Smith, Aunjanue Ellis

Encounter: Riz Ahmed, Octavia Spencer

The Lost Daughter: Olivia Colman, Dakota Johnson

Red Rocket: Simon Rex

The Starling: Melissa McCarthy, Chris O'Dowd, Kevin Kline, Timothy Olyphant

The Same Storm: Mary Louise Parker, Elaine May

Then there is the cast of The French Dispatch: Bill Murray, Timothee Chalamet, Jeffrey Wright, Frances McDormand, Tilda Swinton, Benicio Del Toro and so many more.

Hot prospects for Tributes: Benedict Cumberbatch, Jane Campion, Kirsten Dunst, Oscar Isaac, Kristen Stewart, Asghar Farhadi, Joaquin Phoenix, Peter Dinklage, Will Smith, Riz Ahmed, Octavia Spencer, Olivia Colman, Melissa McCarthy, Kevin Kline, Elaine May, Joe Wright, Sally Hawkins, Bill Murray, Jeffrey Wright, Frances McDormand and Benicio Del Toro.

COUSINS LOOKING TRAILER

From the very first Ten Bets post back on June 24th I have been all but certain that Mark Cousins would be presenting something for Telluride.  On that first Ten Bets I listed The Story of Looking although through the summer two other Cousins' projects seemed like they might be possible as well (The Storms of Jeremy Thomas and an updated Story of  Film: A New Generation).

It looks as if Looking will almost certainly land this week in the San Juans and, honestly, I wouldn't be all that surprised if one or both of the others also play.

You can have a preview of The Story of Looking as a trailer for the documentary was released yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

CRAZY THOUGHTS: (Warning: These never pan out): Dune, Nightmare Alley, Don't Look Up, Soggy Bottom, The Tender Bar, Eternals, Ghostbusters: Afterlife.

LISTS OF THE FALL FILMS THAT ARE "MUST SEES"

The last week, prior to the start of the fall film fest onslaught, any number of outlets posted/published "must see" and "hot titles" lists.  So how hot do we think the TFF #48 lineup is?  Let's review which suspected TFF titles made which lists:

Film Stage's 50 Films to See This Fall includes: The Card Counter, The Velvet Underground, Bergman Island, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Power of the Dog, Flee, The Lost Daughter, A Hero., C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket.

Time's 23 Most Anticipated Movies of Fall 2021 includes: The Card Counter, The French Dispatch, Spencer, The Power of the Dog, King Richard

Indiewire's 23 Must See Films at Venice, Toronto and New York includes: Bergman Island, The Card Counter, Flee, The Hand of God, The Power of the Dog, Red Rocket, The Rescue, Spencer, The Velvet Underground

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the ninth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

***CAN YOU SAY HURRICANE NORA?

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2021/08/27/nora-hurricane-tropical-storm-colorado-surge-moisture/

LAST WORD FOR TODAY:

I'll keep on top of things this next couple days.  If anything breaks of interest I'll post here and Tweet it.  I will post the lineup here on Wednesday when it drops.  Of course, I'll be posting a few things along the way including TBAs and what I'm up to.

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SPECIAL PRE-TFF #48 FRIDAY EDITION: Power of the Dog Teaser and Poster / Spencer Teaser and Poster / Schrader on The Card Counter / Visions of Cyrano / Awards Watch Talks TFF Films

 SPECIAL PRE-TFF #48 FRIDAY EDITION

Preface: Just too many things piled up yesterday to let dangle until Monday's regularly scheduled MTFB post...so here are quick hits about some of the things that popped on Thursday.

POWER OF THE DOG TRAILER AND POSTER

Teaser:

Poster:

SPENCER TEASER AND POSTER

Teaser:

Poster:

SCHRADER ON THE CARD COUNTER

Two Posts!

From Indiewire.

From The Playlist.

VISIONS OF CYRANO

Vanity Fair's has stills from Cyrano.  Here are a couple:

The entire vanity Fair spread is linked here. 

AWARDS WATCH TALKS TFF FILMS

Erik Anderson's Awards Watch posted a Telluride-centric piece with a view toward guessing/predicting the lineup.  It lines up well with what I've been talking about of late with some interesting additional notes.

Among the films he lists as "Most Likely" he includes three that I don't necessarily have as sure things on my list: Bergman Island, Blue Bayou and Red Rocket.

Otherwise, here's the link to Erik's entire T-ride post from yesterday.

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Ten Bets #10 for TFF #48 / French Dispatch Mini-Teasers / The Starling Trailer / Hand of God Trailer / And Here's Some Weirdness

TEN BETS #10 FOR TFF #48

Well folks, we're almost there.  A week from now, if all goes well, and the spouse and I pass our Covid tests, we'll be in Telluride for TFF #48.  So this is the next to last Ten Bets for 2021.  I'll post a Final Ten Bets on Monday morning.  I hope it's not misleading.

I'm sure that many of you have noticed that I have written that this has been a challenging year in as far as predicting Telluride is concerned.  Now, in the last few days, there's new reason for uncertainty.  Mark Johnson of Good as Gold, pointed out that Kris Tapley, who knows a thing or two about fests and Telluride (formerly of In Contention, Variety and now currently a consultant), Tweeted this:

Now that's a bombshell.  The "honest premiere" status instigated a few years ago by the Toronto Fest and emulated by others has become an indispensable tool in nailing down probable Telluride selections.  It's become such an easy and reliable tool over these few years that a lot of people can and do read the T-ride tea leaves.  So if Tapley is correct, the whole enterprise of predicting goes back to real digging, intuition...guesswork.  Yeeks!

Nevertheless, here's what the Ten (+10) Bets looked like last week:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Spencer/Larrain

5) A Hero/Farhadi

6) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

7) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

9) Julia/Cohen and West

10) Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

11) Cyrano/Wright

12) Petite Maman/Sciamma

13) Something from Mark Cousins***

14) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

15) Encounter/Pearce

16) The Hand of God/Sorrentino

17) Vortex/Noe

18) The First 54 Years/Mograbi

19) The Lost Daughter/Gyllenhaal

20) Three Minutes-A Lengenthing/Stigter

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, Cow, Antlers, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, A Chiara. 

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

And this week's Ten Bets (+) are:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Spencer/Larrain

5) A Hero/Farhadi

6) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

7) The Hand of God/Sorrentino

8) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

9) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

10) Julia/Cohen and West

11) Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

12) Cyrano/Wright

13) Petite Maman/Sciamma

14) Something from Mark Cousins***

15) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

16) Encounter/Pearce

17) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

18) The First 54 Years/Mograbi

19) The Lost Daughter/Gyllenhaal

20) Three Minutes-A Lengthening/Stigter

21) Flee/Rasmussen

22) King Richard/Green

23) The Story of.../Cousins

24) The French Dispatch/Anderson

25) Vortex/Noe

Other Possibles: Prayers for the Stolen, Cow, Antlers, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Unclenching the Fists, A Chiara, The Starling. The Same Storm, Dune.

For me...hot titles are French Dispatch, Power of the Dog, Card Counter, C'mon C'mon, Hand of God, Flee, King Richard and A Hero.  That could change.  If The Starling SHOWS...it'll probably go on my list.

FRENCH DISPATCH-MINI TEASERS

Searchlight has deployed a series of character specific teasers for Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch.  within the last couple of weeks there has been enough buzz that it could play Telluride that I have elevated it from a "possibility" to the #24 spot on this week's Ten Bets (+) list.  Here from YouTube are those teasers:

Revisions to a Manifesto:

The Concrete Masterpiece:

The Cycling Reporter:

THR STARLING TRAILER

Listen, I don't have anything resembling concrete intell, but, within the last week I have begun to think that Theodore Melfi's (Hidden Figures, St. Vincent) The Starling could end up making the TFF #48 lineup.  The Starling stars Melissa McCarthy, Chris O'Dowd and Timothy Olyphant.  The IMDb description for The Starling is as follows:

"After Lilly suffers a loss, a combative Starling takes nest beside her quiet home. The feisty bird taunts and attacks the grief-stricken Lilly. On her journey to expel the Starling, she rediscovers her will to live and capacity for love."

And here's the trailer for the film released a couple of days ago from YouTube:

HAND OF GOD TRAILER

I haven't been on board the "The Hand of God" will play Telluride train fully until the last couple of weeks but I am now 95% sure the Paolo Sorrentino semi-autobiographical film will, in fact, play at TFF #48.  I'll also be forthcoming that I hadn't worked up much enthusiasm for the notion until I sat down and watched the trailer.  Now I am in full anticipation mode.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

AND HERE'S SOME WEIRDNESS...

Jordan Ruimy 's World of Reel pointed out yesterday that IMDb has listed Taika Watiti's Next Goal Wins has a date with the London BFI Film Festival.  

I had all but given up any notion that Watiti's film would play any festival owing to the allegations surrounding Armie Hammer who appears in the film.  This, however, changes the pitch (if you will).

If the IMBd Pro entry is accurate, then maybe we have to reconsider.  The info from IMDb doesn't reveal the film's actual premiere status leaving the door open to the notion that it might play somewhere else prior to bowing at London/BFI.  

It's a Searchlight film...

T-ride in 2021???

Probably not, but deserving of a sliver of the convo...

From IMDb Pro:

Final Ten Bets coming Monday!!!

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Ten Bets #9 for TFF #48 / World of Reel's TFF #48 List / Pics of The Lost Daughter / Here's a Thing

 TEN BETS #9 FOR TFF #48

We're coming down to the wire.  Two weeks until TFF #48 launches.  My biggest fear at this point is a failed PCR test just prior to the start of The SHOW.

As to the "Bets", I'm feeling fairly confident about today's edition but as I have written earlier, this year has been trickier than the past few years.

My plan right now, prediction wise, is to post Ten Bets 10 a week from today and then likely a Final Ten Bets special post on Monday, Aug. 30th.  

By way of review, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Spencer/Larrain

6) Something from Mark Cousins***

7) A Hero/Farhadi

8) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

9) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

11) Julia/Cohen and West

12) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

13/ Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

14) Cyrano/Wright

15) Il Buco/Frammartino

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Cow, Encounter,  Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, The Lost Daughter, Three Minutes-A Lengthening, Bergman Island, Vortex, Don't Look Up, Dune.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

And here's this week's 10 (+10) Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Spencer/Larrain

5) A Hero/Farhadi

6) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

7) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

9) Julia/Cohen and West

10) Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

11) Cyrano/Wright

12) Petite Maman/Sciamma

13) Something from Mark Cousins***

14) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

15) Encounter/Pearce

16) The Hand of God/Sorrentino

17) Vortex/Noe

18) The First 54 Years/Mograbi

19) The Lost Daughter/Gyllenhaal

20) Three Minutes-A Lengenthing/Stigter

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, Cow, Antlers, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, A Chiara. 

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

WORLD OF REEL'S TFF #48 LIST

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel continues to have an even more extensive TFF speculation list than I do.

  

Jordan posted a new listing of what he expects/thinks will play T-ride on Tuesday and though we agree on a lot, there are films that he includes that I don't and vice versa.

From last Monday's Ten Bets list, Ruimy and I agree on 17 films that we think will play.  From my Ten Bets I have three films that Ruimy doesn't list as "more or less confirmed": Cyrano, Something from Mark Cousins and Hallelujah (The Leonard Cohen doc).  Ruimy does list all three of these films as "possibilities".

Ruimy lists 10 films that he, again, labels as "more or less confirmed: King Richard, The French Dispatch, Passing, Flee, Red Rocket, Bergman Island, A Chiara, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists and Muhammad Ali.  Of this list of 10 I have eight on my list of possibilities from Monday's Ten Bets.  Ruimy includes Passing and Bergman Island which, at this point I don't think are playing TFF.

Final thought: I hope Jordan's right about The French Dispatch.

PICS OF THE LOST DAUGHTER

Maggie Gyllenhaal's directing debut, The Lost Daughter, has picked up some serious steam the last few weeks as a real T-ride possibility.  This stems from three factors: It's a Netflix property. It was chosen for the competition section at Venice and it was scheduled there early enough there (Friday, Sept. 3 at 10:00pm Venice time) to be a viable candidate.

The Playlist, among other outlets, posted first look stills from the film yesterday,  Here's a look at a couple of them.

Olivia Colman and Dakota Johnson lead the cast which also includes four time Oscar nominee Ed Harris.

HERE'S A THING...

(Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara on the set of Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley)

Soooo, the MPAA rated Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley R in July.  Now, I know that the word is that, as of a couple of a month ago, the film wouldn't be ready for Venice.  In my post from July 29th, I pointed to an interview with Venice artistic director Alberto Barbera which revealed that Nightmare would have been a Venice choice were it to be ready.  Further, its absence from the Toronto and New York lineups seem to confirm that.

But, some version of the film exists to have been rated...

In a dream world...Del Toro shows up at Telluride in a couple of weeks and screens whatever version exists.  It wouldn't be the first time that a film wasn't fully complete that screens at Telluride.  The film is dated for a Dec. 3rd release.

Do I think this WILL happen...Nope.  But a guy can dream.

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Academy Trip to T-ride Canceled-TFF Responds / Late-Breaking: Cumberbatch Confirms Power of Dog and Louis Wain / Ruimy's 12 Most Anticipated Film Fest Films (6 at Telluride?) / Known Unknowns Part 3 / Julia Looks Like a Lock / New Poster for The Card Counter

ACADEMY TRIP TO T-RIDE CANCELED-TFF RESPONDS

Pete Hammond writing at Deadline.com reported Saturday evening that the  usual AMPAS member trip to Telluride has been canceled.  From Hammond's post:

"Deadline has learned the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences will not be traveling to Colorado for its annual member trip to the Telluride Film Festival this upcoming Labor Day weekend, and as such will not be holding its usual cocktail reception which has been a highlight of the fest in recent years and was expected to once again draw a packed room of Oscar voters..."

Despite the Academy's decision, Hammond says that the fest is still "all systems go" writing:

"...it is still all systems go for the festival, in terms of studio and distributor participation. In fact, I have been contacted by at least one major player with several films this year asking if I am comfortable attending their planned event “as long as all precautions are taken”.  I  have heard of no one so far canceling or changing their plans regarding participation at Telluride."

Further, Hammond says that the scuttlebutt is:

"there is lots of informed speculation and it appears festival honchos are putting together a very strong and promising lineup of films and tributes including in-person star and filmmaker participation." 

Meanwhile, on Sunday, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg reported that TFF organizer's have stepped in and will be hosting an event to replace that annual Academy soiree.  TFF heads have labelled the party "The Filmmakers Reception".  Feinberg writes:

“AMPAS will be sorely missed this year,” the fest tells The Hollywood Reporter. “The organization has been, and will continue to be, strong supporters and friends of the Festival, and we can’t wait to welcome them back in 2022. We will continue in their absence with the annual cocktail party [hosted in recent years by the Academy], this year called the Filmmaker Reception, with the same exclusive guest list full of Oscar voters, filmmakers, talent, and Hollywood executives. We will be moving to a bigger venue: a beautiful private home with an abundance of outdoor space and all the same Festival-mandated Covid safety protocols.”

Feinberg's reporting also emphasized, as Hammond's reporting did, that all films that had been set to play Telluride still are set to play.  From Feinberg:

"The Hollywood Reporter can also confirm that no distributors have backed out of their plans to attend or screen their films at the fest, and several have already begun reaching out to journalists to ask them to hold time-slots for COVID-safe receptions and media opportunities."

LATE BREAKING: CUMBERBATCH CONFIRMS POWER OF DOG AND LOUIS WAIN FOR TELLURIDE

Screen Daily reports this morning that actor Benedict Cumberbatch, who appears in both Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog and Will Sharpe's The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, has confirmed in a BBC Radio interview that both films will play at Telluride.

Here's the link to the Screen Daily story.

RUIMY'S 12 MOST ANITICPATED FILM FEST FILMS (6 AT TELLURIDE?)

Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel was up on Saturday with a list of 12 fall film fest films that he called the most anticipated.  Among the 12 titles listed, half are expected (by Ruimy) to play at TFF #48.  Here's where those half dozen land on his list:

1) The Power of the Dog

5) C'mon C'mon

7) Spencer

8) The Hand of God

9) The Card Counter

10) The Lost Daughter

How do the other three fests fare on Ruimy's list?

Venice has eight films.

Toronto has six films.

New York has three films.

Ruimy's complete list of a dozen with commentary can be found here.

KNOWN  UNKNOWNS PART 3

I've been keeping track of a list of films I have called the "Known Unknowns".  I last posted it two weeks ago and it looked like this:

Being the Ricardos/Sorkin (Amazon-No date)

Cyrano/Wright (MGM/United Artists-12/25)

Don't Look Up/McKay (Netflix-No date)

Eternals/Zhao (Disney-11/5)

A Journal for Jordan/Washington (Sony-12/22)

King Richard/Green (Warners-11/9)

The Last Duel/Scott (Disney/20th Century-10/15)

Soggy Bottom (Untitled PTA Project)/Anderson (MGM-11-26)

tick, tick...BOOM/Miranda (Netflix-Undated)

West Side Story/Spielberg (Disney/20th Century-12-10)

 

Over the last two weeks, there has been some movement on the list.  Both The Last Duel and tick, tick, BOOM have given clues that neither of those films will be at Telluride.

However, there has been some increasing buzz that Joe Wright's Cyrano has a reasonable chance to make the TFF #48 lineup.

With that information in mind we are left with seven films still on the list:

Being the Ricardos/Sorkin (Amazon-No date)

Don't Look Up/McKay (Netflix-No date)

Eternals/Zhao (Disney-11/5)

A Journal for Jordan/Washington (Sony-12/22)

King Richard/Green (Warners-11/9)

Soggy Bottom (Untitled PTA Project)/Anderson (MGM-11-26)

West Side Story/Spielberg (Disney/20th Century-12-10)

My assessment here is that the only one of these that might be a Telluride choice is King Richard.  The rest are unlikely to play at any festival anywhere.

JULIA LOOK LIKE A LOCK

The Toronto International Film Festival announced Friday that Julia, the documentary about the life of Julia Child, will play TIFF as an International Premiere.  That designation tells us that Julia's presence at Telluride is very, very likely as the film is listed as being a U.S. film by TIFF which means that the International designation tells us that it will have appeared previously in its country of origin.  The process of elimination tells us Telluride.

NEW POSTER FOR THE CARD COUNTER

Here it is.  Released this week is another poster for Paul Schrader's The Card Counter which I am really confident about being a TFF #48 choice.  I'm expecting it to move from an early Venice slot across the Atlantic to land in T-ride.  Here's the poster:

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Ten Bets #8 for TFF #48 / New York Announcement Revelations / Meanwhile... / A Journal for Jordan Teaser

     TEN BETS #8 FOR TFF #48

2021 continues to be the most difficult year to suss out films that are likely to play Telluride.  Largely because, up to this point, there has been a much smaller overlap between films chosen for major fests that have announced most if not all of their lineup (New York and Toronto).  Films announced for Venice have yet to get an official release of their schedule which can indicate films that could play there and still play at Telluride-though that's not an exact science either.

Nevertheless, we martial on with a new re-shuffling list of Ten Bets for TFF #48 films.  This week's new bets reflect information from stories included below,

Here's last week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Spencer/Larrain

6) Something from Mark Cousins***

7) Julia/Cohen and West

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) The Rescue/Garbus

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Cow, The Last Duel, Encounter, tick, tick..BOOM, Dune, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, C'mon C'mon, Hallelujah/Leonard Cohen, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, The Lost Daughter, Becoming Cousteau, Three Minutes-A Lengthening, Don't Look Up.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

And this week's Ten (+5) Bets are:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Spencer/Larrain

6) Something from Mark Cousins***

7) A Hero/Farhadi

8) C'mon, C'mon/Mills

9) The Rescue/Chin and Vasarhelyi

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

11) Julia/Cohen and West

12) Hallelujah-Leonard Cohen Doc/Geller and Goldfine

13/ Becoming Cousteau/Garbus

14) Cyrano/Wright

15) Il Buco/Frammartino

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Cow, Encounter,  Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, The Lost Daughter, Three Minutes-A Lengthening, Bergman Island, Vortex, Don't Look Up, Dune.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

NEW YORK ANNOUNCEMENT REVELATIONS

The New York Film Festival filled out its lineup on Tuesday leaving us with clues about possible TFF #48 titles.  They had previously announced their three Gala presentations: The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the dog and Madres Paralelas.  

Here's what we think the NYFF tea leaves show us:

Possibly in/still alive to play T-ride:

A Chiara

Il Buco

The First 54 Years

Petite Maman

Prayers for the Stolen

Unclenching the Fists

The Velvet Underground

Vortex

No Telluride:

Ahed's Knee

Drive My Car

France

Hit the Road

In Front of Your Face

Introduction

Memoria

The Worst Person in the World

A couple of other notes: 

1) The French Dispatch which had been previously announced for New York is nowhere to be found in the official lineup announced today nor was it announced for Toronto.  Here's a July 12th story from The Hollywood Reporter saying that the film would screen in NYFF on Sept. 24th which is opening night.  That's odd as the opening night film has been announced as Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth.  A July 13th story in Vogue clams the NYFF screening will be a "U'S' Premiere"  but that's the only reference to that premiere designation that I can find.

2) There seems, now to be a little confusion about the status of Mia Hansen-Love's Bergman Island.  After its Cannes screening, Toronto announced it as an International Premiere which should mean that it will not have played Telluride.  However, NYFF announced it Tuesday with no Premiere status as opposed to listing it as a U.S. Premiere, a designation for many films and one that should be true for Bergman without a T-ride play.  It begs the question as to why NYFF didn't list with any premiere status.

MEANWHILE...

Variety, among others, reported yesterday afternoon that Lin Manuel Miranda's directorial debut- ticj, tick...BOOM will World Premiere and open The AFI (American Film Institute) Film Festival on Nov. 10th.

That means that a film that had developed a fairly convincing Telluride profile will not be making a stop at TFF #48.

Here's the Variety story.

Also biting the Telluride dust is Ridley Scott's The Last Duel which we found out earlier this week will make its bow in Venice on Sept. 10th with a tribute to Scott being part of the festivities.

I suppose there's an extreme outside chance that The Last Duel plays at Telluride and then does Venice afterwards.  That seems very unlikely, though.

Here's Deadline with the story of Scott being feted.

A JOURNAL FOR JORDAN TEASER

Denzel Washington's A Journal for Jordan has a teaser from Sony.  That appeared yesterday.  The film is set to be released on Dec. 22nd.

According to IMDb Pro, this is the description of the film:

The project, "Journal for Jordan," is based on Dana Canedy's essay, which describes a 200-page journal penned by her fiancé, 1st Sgt. Charles Monroe King, for their son. The 48-year-old soldier was killed in Baghdad in October, one month shy of finishing his tour of duty. He had left for the Middle East before his son was born.

Here's the teaser from YouTube:

The film has an outside shot at a TFF slot.

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Ten Bets #7 for TFF #48 / Moving Parts / Julia Trailer

 TEN BETS #7 FOR TFF #48

A lot of moving parts this week with new films either seemingly confirmed for Telluride and other films nuked for TFF #48 in all likelihood.  That info is reflected in this week's Ten Bets and explained below in the section labeled "Moving Parts".  Bettin' Time!

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

2) The Power of the Dog/Campion

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Something from Mark Cousins***

6) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar

7)  Julia/Cohen and West

8) Spencer/Larrain

9) A Hero/Farhadi

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

Other Possibles: Dune, The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God Where Is Anne Frank?, Cow, The Last Duel, Encounter, tick, tick..BOOM, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Titaine, C'mon C'mon, Hallelujah/Leonard Cohen, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, 7 Prisoners, The Lost Daughter.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

This week's Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Spencer/Larrain

6) Something from Mark Cousins***

7) Julia/Cohen and West

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) The Rescue/Garbus

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

Other Possibles: The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Cow, The Last Duel, Encounter, tick, tick..BOOM, Dune, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, C'mon C'mon, Hallelujah/Leonard Cohen, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, The Lost Daughter, Becoming Cousteau, Three Minutes-A Lengthening, Don't Look Up.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

MOVING PARTS

BFI London announced yesterday that Jeyemes Samules The Harder They Fall will be their opening night Gala as a World Premiere on Oct. 6th taking it out of Telluride consideration.  Admittedly, I only regarded it as an unlikely TFF #48 possibility.

New York announced (as reported by Indiewire) that Pedro Almodovar's Madres Paralelas will close that fest as a North American premiere closing the door to its Telluride participation.  That one was a bit of a surprise.  Not that it's closing NYFF but that it wouldn't play TFF.  After the success of Pain and Glory a couple of years back, I thought a Telluride play was a serious possibility...but nope.

Toronto's latest list of inclusions yesterday seemed to point to three documentaries will be playing Telluride: The Rescue from the crew that brought Free Solo to TFF,  Becoming Cousteau from Liz Garbus and Three Minutes-A Lengthening from Bianca Stigter.

TIFF also signaled that Palme d'Or winner, Titane, and Ari Folman's Where Is Anne Frank? will not be at TFF #48 as they are both labeled as North American premieres.

Other films announced as a part of the TIFF lineup that will not be making a Colorado trek over Labor Day (and that I had thought had a small chance at it):

Lapid's Ahed's Knee, Dumont's France, Moratto's 7 Prisoners and Kuosmanen's Compartment #6.

Rasmussen's Flee is listed as a Canadian Premiere and Bentley's Jockey is listed as an International Premiere which often signals a Telluride play but both films bowed at Sundance and Flee played at the Annecy Animation Fest in France thus explaining the Preem designation.  That said, I still have sense that Flee might be that doc that plays both Sundance and T-ride.  It happens sometimes.

Here's Deadline's complete rundown of Toronto's latest wave of titles.

Meanwhile...

Telluride buzz this week focused around Pablo Larrain's Spencer, Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon and Joe Wright's Cyrano.  I'm feeling less bullish on Dune.

Meanwhile, last Monday's list of 10 Known Unknowns remain "Unknown":

Being the Ricardos/Sorkin (Amazon-No date)

Cyrano/Wright (MGM/United Artists-12/25)

Don't Look Up/McKay (Netflix-No date)

Eternals/Zhao (Disney-11/5)

A Journal for Jordan/Washington (Sony-12/22)

King Richard/Green (Warners-11/9)

The Last Duel/Scott (Disney/20th Century-10/15)

Soggy Bottom (Untitled PTA Project)/Anderson (MGM-11-26)

tick, tick...BOOM/Miranda (Netflix-Undated)

West Side Story/Spielberg (Disney/20th Century-12-10)

JULIA TRAILER

Sony Pictures Classics, it turns out, has released a trailer for Julia, the documentary about famed chef Julia Child.  Julia is directed by Julie Cohen and Betsy West, the directing duo behind Oscar nominee BRG.  Julia does not yet have an announced release date.  The doc sits at #6 on this week's Ten Bets list.  Here's the trailer from YouTube:

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Ten Bets #6 for TFF #48 / Titles Disappearing from Consideration / New Toronto and New York Addition and Subtraction / Trailers for Possibles

 TEN BETS #6 FOR TFF #48

Not a lot to change in the Ten Bets for this week.  There are a couple of changes in the Other Possibilities list (see next section below)

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

2) Petite Maman/Sciamma

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Something from Mark Cousins***

5) The Power of the Dog/Campion

6) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

7) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar

8) Julia/Cohen and West

9) A Hero/Farhadi

10) Spencer/Larrain

Other Possibles: Dune, The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, Where Is Anne Frank?, Blonde, Cow, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, Mothering Sunday, Encounter, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God, Don't Look Up, tick, tick..BOOM, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Titaine, C'mon C'mon, The Humans, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain/Sharpe

2) The Power of the Dog/Campion

3) Petite Maman/Sciamma

4) The Card Counter/Schrader

5) Something from Mark Cousins***

6) Madres Paralelas (Parallel Mothers)/Almodovar

7)  Julia/Cohen and West

8) Spencer/Larrain

9) A Hero/Farhadi

10) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

Other Possibles: Dune, The French Dispatch, Muhammad Ali, The Hand of God Where Is Anne Frank?, Cow, The Last Duel, Encounter, tick, tick..BOOM, Antlers, Being the Ricardos, Titaine, C'mon C'mon, Hallelujah/Leonard Cohen, Red Rocket, Last Exit: Space, Flee, King Richard, 7 Prisoners, The Lost Daughter.

***Mark Cousins projects that could play:

The Story of Looking

The Storms of Jeremy Thomas

The Story of Film: The Next Generation

TITLES DISAPPEARING FROM CONSIDERATION

(Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara on the set of Nightmare Alley via IMDb)

Notes on interviews with Venice Film Festival artistic director Alberto Barbera who reveled that both Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley and Ridley Scott's House of Gucci both were to have been in the Venice lineup but will not be ready in time.

You have to conclude, by extension, that if neither film is ready for Venice that they will not be playing Telluride either since the two fests occupy the same dates on the calendar.

Here's the Barbera interview from Variety in which, among other items, he reveals that Nightmare Alley isn't ready.  Also...see the Toronto story below.

Additionally, Variety reported last night that Andrew Dominik's Blonde will move to 2022 thereby almost certainly off the Telluride list.  The Variety story is here.

NEW TORONTO AND NEW YORK ADDITION 

The Toronto International Film Festival added Galas, Special Presentations and Contemporay Wprd Cinema selections yesterday.  Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog was added as a "Canadian Premiere".  Earlier this week the New York Film Festival named it as its choice for its centerpiece.  The NYFF announcement reveals that presentation will be the film's "New York premiere":

"Film at Lincoln Center announces Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog as the Centerpiece selection for the 59th New York Film Festival, making its New York premiere at Alice Tully Hall on October 1."

The dual announcements mean that The Power of the Dog is all but locked for a Telluride bow after its screening in Venice.

Here's coverage from Deadlione.com of the TIFF announcement.

Here's the actual NYFF announcement.

Meanwhile, the announcement from TIFF also took Mothering Sunday and The Humans out of consideration for T-ride.  Mothering Sunday was announced as a North American Premiere while The Humans will be a World Premiere.  Those designations indicate that neither will be playing at Telluride.

TRAILERS FOR POSSIBLES

THE CARD COUNTER

PARLELAS MADRES (PARALLEL MOTHERS)

KING RICHARD

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