MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions / Tight Spots / Final Oscar Nomination Predictions from the Experts

MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they be.  

My final Oscar nomination predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.  Over the last six years my success rate has been 78.5%.  Should that hold tomorrow, I'll land somewhere around 94 out of the 120 nominees that will be announced.  Additionally, the film/performer that I have listed as the first alternate in each category will be a nominee in about 30% of the cases where I miss at least one nominee in a category.  All that said, BAFTA nominations last week seemed weird and I expect some more weird tomorrow morning.

As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

I'll have nominees up sometime fairly soon after the announcements and likely a comment or two.

BEST PICTURE 

1) Belfast

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Dune

4) Licorice Pizza

5) West Side Story

6) Don't Look Up

7) CODA

8) King Richard

9) Being the Ricardos

10) tick, tick...BOOM

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Drive My Car

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Adam McKay/Don't Look Up

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci

3) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

4) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

5) Jennifer Hudson/Respect

Alternates: Kristen Stewart/Spencer and Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza 

BEST ACTOR 

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up

Alternates: Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos and Peter Dinklage/Cyrano

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast

3) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

4) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

5) Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley

Alternates: Ruth Negga/Passing and Anne Dowd/Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza

5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci

Alternates: Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar and Jamie Dornan/Belfast

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

1) Belfast 

2) Licorice Pizza 

3) Don't Look Up 

4) King Richard 

5) Being the Ricardos 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

1) The Power of the Dog 

2) The Lost Daughter

3) West Side Story

4) CODA 

5) Drive My Car 

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

1) Drive My Car/Japan 

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway 

3) The Hand of God/Italy 

4) A Hero/Iran 

5) Flee/Denmark 

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

1) Encanto 

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines 

3) Flee 

4) Luca 

5) Raya and the Last Dragon 

Alternates: Belle and Sing 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee

2) Summer of Soul

3) The Rescue

4) Ascension

5) Procession

Alternates: Attica and The First Wave 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Belfast

5) Nightmare Alley

Alternates: West Side Story and No Time to Die 

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) Belfast

3) The Power of the Dog

4) Don't Look Up

5) Licorice Pizza

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story 

         

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

1) Dune 

2) Nightmare Alley 

3) West Side Story

4) Belfast 

5) The French Dispatch 

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Cruella

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

1) Dune 

2) The Power of the Dog 

3) The French Dispatch 

4) Don't Look Up

5) Encanto 

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die 

2) Be Alive/King Richard 

3) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto 

4) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up

5) Down to Joy/Belfast 

Alternates: Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall and Here I Am/Respect

BEST COSTUMES 

1) Cruella

2) Dune 

3) West Side Story 

4) Nightmare Alley 

5) House of Gucci 

Alternates: Cyrano and Spencer

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune 

2) Spiderman: No Way Home 

3) The Matrix Resurrections 

4) No Time to Die 

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings 

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune 

2) West Side Story

3) No Time to Die 

4) Spiderman: No Way Home 

5) The Power of the Dog 

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune 

2) Cruella 

3) House of Gucci 

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

5) Coming 2 America  

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball

2) Terror Contagion

3) When We Were Bullies

4) Days of Rage

5) Coded: The Hidden Loves of J.C. Leyendecker

Alternates: Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis and Three Songs for Benazir

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Us Again

2) Robin Robin

3) Namoo

4) Bestia

5) The Windshield Wiper

Alternates: The Musician and Step into the River

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye

2) When the Sun Sets

3) Censor of Dreams

4) Frimas

5) Please Hold

Alternates: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run and Under the Heavens

THOUGHTS:

I have Dune and The Power of the Dog both getting 10 nominations  followed by:

Belfast-9

West Side Story-7

Don't Look Up-6

Licorice Pizza and King Richard -5

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci-4

CODA, Being the Ricardos, No Time to Die, Encanto and Flee-3

tick, tick...BOOM, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, Cruella and Spiderman: No Way Home-2

All other films making the list with a single nomination.

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci are predicted to have the most nominations without a Best Picture nomination.  However, if Blanchett does land in Supporting Actress and Nightmare picks up a not necessarily out-of-the question Adapted Screenplay nomination...who knows?  I'm rooting for that to happen.

Eleven TFF #48 films should earn at least one nomination and the TFF #48 total predicted nominations stands at 36.

TIGHT SPOTS:

Best Picture: Ay Ay AY!  Seems to me that eight or maybe even nine spots are likely decided but that last couple...yeesh.  Included in the scrum: Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, tick, tick...BOOM, No Time to Die, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth and maybe even Spiderman: No Way Home-though that bubble has lost some air over the last week or so.

Director: Campion, Branagh, PTA and Villenueve look good.  Speilberg and Hamaguchi are slugging it out for the fifth spot.

Actress: Kidman, Gaga and Colman seem solid.  Then it's ugly tight between Chastain, Hudson, Stewart (who fell so far so fast), Haim and Cruz.

Actor: Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are in good shape.  Last spot is a tug-of-war between DiCaprio, Bardem and Dinklage.

Supporting Actress: It already seems like DeBose has the statue in hand.  Dunst and Balfe seem safe for a nom.  Ellis, Blanchett and Negga are bunched tightly.

Supporting Actor: Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are good to go.  Hinds should have been a lock but missing the BAFTA nom last week makes him vulnerable.  Cooper has come on strong of late.  Last spot probably goes to Leto but there are strong challenges from Affleck, Dornan and a surging Plemons.

Original Screenplay: The top five here seem to be in good shape.

Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter seem locked than it gets brutal with CODA, Drive My Car, West Side Story, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley all battling to get one of the last three spots.

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITONS FROM THE EXPERTS:

Clayton Davis/Variety

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Anne Thonpson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Andrew Carden/The Awards Connection

Vanity Fair

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture 

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Kyle Buchanan/The New York Times

Nathaniel Rogers/The Film Experience

Mark Johnson/Good as Gold

Gregory Ellwood/The Playlist

Gold Derby

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MTFB Oscar Take: Best Picture and More Updated / Interviews and Profiles: Gyllenhaal and Rasmussen

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: BEST PICTURE AND MORE UPDATED

Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.  These categories were last predicted here on Jan. 10th.  As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) Belfast (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) King Richard (6)

5) Dune (4)

6) CODA (7)

7) Licorice Pizza (5)

8) Don't Look Up (8)

9) tick, tick...BOOM (9)

10) Being the Ricardos (Alt.)

Alternates: House of Gucci and The Tragedy of Macbeth

Comment:  The top six films look solid.  Licorice Pizza and Don't Look Up are probable and then after those it's a free for all.  As you can see, I currently have tick, tick...BOOM and Being the Ricardos in to get nominated and House of Gucci and The Tragedy of Macbeth as alternates but you could also see Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley sneak in and don't discount the outside shots of the Lost Daughter, No Time to Die or Spiderman: No Way Home.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog  (1)

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast (2)

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune (3)

4) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story (4)

5) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza (5)

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Maggie Gyllenhaal/The Lost Daughter

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car/Japan (1)

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (2)

3) The Hand of God/Italy (5)

4) A Hero/Iran (3)

5) Flee/Denmark (4)

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto (1)

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines (3)

3) Flee (2)

4) Luca (4)

5) Raya and the Last Dragon (5)

Alternates: Belle and Sing 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee (2)

2) The Rescue (1)

3) Summer of Soul (3)

4) Ascension (5)

5) Procession (Alt.)

Alternates: The First Wave and The Velvet Underground 

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Flee director Jonas Poher Rasmussen willbe live with Variety's Screening Room with Peter DeBruge tomorrow.  Here's where you can register for that Q+A.

Writer and Director Maggie Gyllenhaal talks The Lost Daughter for Indiewire.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / Interviews and Profiles for Cyrano, The Hand of God and King Richard

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories.  These were last predicted on Dec. 23rd.  TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold.  The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast (2)

2) Licorice Pizza (1)

3) Don't Look Up (4)

4) King Richard (5)

5) Being the Ricardos (3)

Alternates: C'mon C'mon and A Hero

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) The Lost Daughter (2)

3) West Side Story (4)

4) CODA (3)

5) Drive My Car (New)

Alternates: Dune and Passing

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune (1)

2) Spiderman: No Way Home (30

3) The Matrix Resurrections (2)

4) No Time to Die (New)

5) Godzilla vs. Kong (4)

Alternates: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune (1)

2) West Side Story (2)

3) No Time to Die (3)

4) Spiderman: No Way Home (New)

5) Belfast (4)

Alternates: tick, tick...BOOM and The Power of the Dog

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune (1)

2) Cruella (4)

3) House of Gucci (2)

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3)

5) Nightmare Alley (5)

Alternates: The Suicide Squad and West Side Story

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Director Joe Wright and Actor Peter Dinklage for Cyrano from Gold Derby

Joe Wright on Cyrano from Indiewire

Behind the Scenes of Cyrano from Playbill.com

Writer-Director Paolo Sorrentino on The Hand of God from Variety

Actor Jon Bernthal for King Richard from The Desert Sun

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / Interviews and Profiles

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING, SCORE, SONG AND COSTUMES

Here's your update on the Supporting Acting races as well as Score, Song and Costumes.  These predictions were last updated on Dec. 20th.  TFF #48 performances/films are indicated in Bold and their previous position in my predictions are indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST SUPPORTING SCTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story (2)

2) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast (1)

3) Aujunue Ellis/King Richard (4)

4) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog (3)

5) Ruth Negga/Passing (5)

Alternates: Rita Moreno/West Side Story and Anne Dowd/Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog (2)

2) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast (1)

3) Tony Kotsur/CODA (3)

4) Jamie Dornan/Belfast (4)

5) Jared LKodieto/House of Gucci (5)

Alternates: Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza and Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) Don't Look Up (3)

4) The French Dispatch (5)

5) Spencer (4)

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Encanto

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Be Alive/King Richard (1)

2) No Time to Die/No Time to Die (2)

3) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up (4)

4) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto (5)

5) Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall (New)

Alternates: Down to Joy/Belfast and So May We Start/Annette

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella (2)

2) Dune (1)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) House of Gucci (New)

5) Spencer (Alt.)

Alternates: The French Dispatch and Nightmare Alley

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Writer/Director Asghar Farhadi on A Hero from The National Board of Review

Cinematographer Robert Yeoman/The French Dispatch from Next Best Picture

Film Editor Una Ni Dhonghaile/Belfast from Gold Derby

The Crew from Procession from Indiewire

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MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture, Direction and More / Directors from TFF #48 Films / Trailer for Cow

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND MORE

Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.  These categories were last predicted here on Dec. 13th.  As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) Belfast (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) Dune (5)

5) Licorice Pizza (6)

6) King Richard (4)

7) CODA (8)

8) Don't Look Up (10)

9) tick, tick, BOOM (Alt.)

10) Being the Ricardos (9)

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of Macbeth (Look out for Drive My Car)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog (1)

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast (2)

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune (3)

4) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story (5)

5) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza (4)

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car/Japan (3)

2) A Hero/Iran (1)

3) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (2)

4) Flee/Denmark (4)

5) The Hand of God/Italy (5)

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto (1)

2) Flee (3)

3) The Mitchells vs. The Machines (2)

4) Luca (4)

5) Raya and The Last Dragon (Alt.)

Alternates: Belle and The Summit of the Gods

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee (2)

2) The Rescue (1)

3) Summer of Soul (3)

4) Attica (Alt.)

5) Procession (4)

Alternates: Ascension and The First Wave

DIRECTORS FROM TFF #48 FILMS 

Asghar Farhadi/A Hero from The Hollywood Reporter and also from the National Board of Review.

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog (with Guillermo Del Toro) from Variety.

Joe Wright/Cyrano from Awards Daily.

TRAILER FOR ANDREA ARNOLD'S DOCUMENTARY: COW

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MTFB Oscar Nom Prediction Update: Screenplays, Visual Effects, Sound and Makeup/Hair / Indiewire's Critics' Survey Part Two / Oscar Short Lists Announced

MTFB OSCAR NOM PREDICTION UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS, VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND AND MAKEUP/HAIR 

Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories.  These were last predicted on Dec. 9th.  TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold.  The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Licorice Pizza (2)

2) Belfast (1)

3) Being the Ricardos (Alt.)

4) Don't Look Up (4)

5) King Richard (3)

Alternates: C'mon C'mon and A Hero

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) The Lost Daughter (2)

3) CODA (3)

4) West Side Story (4)

5) Passing (Alt.)

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Dune

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune (1)

2) The Matrix Resurrections (2)

3)  Spiderman: No Way Home (4)

4) Godzilla vs. Kong (5)

5) Eternals (3)

Alternates: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune (1)

2) West Side Story (3)

3) No Time to Die (2)

4) Belfast (5)

5) tick, tick...BOOM (New)

Alternates: The Power of the Dog and The Matrix Resurrections

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune (1)

2) House of Gucci (2)

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3)

4) Cruella (4)

5) Nightmare Alley (Alt.)

Alternates: Suicide Squad and Cyrano

INDIEWIRE'S CRITICS' SURVEY PART TWO

A week ago, I posted a breakdown of Indiewire's survey of over 180 critics.  That initial story from Indiewire focused on top ten films in a variety of categories. This week, Indiewire listed the top 50 films of the year based on that survey.  TFF #48 films that made the list are:

49) King Richard

44) Cyrano

38) The Card Counter

37) Spencer

32) Red Rocket

31) The Velvet Underground

23) A Hero

22) Bergman Island

21) Belfast

16) The Lost Daughter

10) C'mon C'mon

8) Petite Maman

7) Flee

6) The French Dispatch

1) The Power of the Dog

The complete list of the top 50 films is linked here.

OSCAR SHORT LISTS ANNOUNCED

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their Oscar short lists for a number of categories yesterday.  Making the short list keeps a film's chances for an Oscar nomination alive in that category.  Here's how TFF #48 films in each.

Best Foreign Language Film: Flee, A Hero. The Hand of God

Best Documentary: Flee, Julia, The Rescue, Procession and The Velvet Underground

Best Original Score: The French Dispatch, King Richard, The Power of the Dog and Spencer.

Best Original Song: Down to Joy/Belfast and Be Alive/King Richard

Best Sound: Belfast and The Power of the Dog

Best Makeup/Hair: Cyrano

Best Live Action Short: When the Sun Sets

Best Documentary Short: Lead Me Home

The complete rundown of all the short lists is linked here from Next Best Picture.

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Dec. 13th Post Updated: Globes and the CCA / MTFB Updates Oscar Predix: Best Picture, Director and More / Playlist 100 and TFF #49 / Interviews and Profiles

TODAY'S POST UPDATED: GLOBES AND THE CCA

I have updated today's post this afternoon to reflect nominations from the HFPA/Golden Globes and The Critics' Choice Awards as they reflect/impact TFF #48 films.  Starting with The CCA where TFF #48 films combined for 39 nominations today lead by Belfast's 11 (West Side Story also had 11 nominations).  Here's the rundown of TFF #48 CCA nominations:

BELFAST (11): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Hinds), Supporting Actor (Dornan), Supporting Actress (Balfe), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Young Actor (Hill), and Ensemble.

THE POWER OF THE DOG (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score and Ensemble.

KING RICHARD (6): Best Picture, Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Original Screenplay, Song, Young Actor (Sidney)

THE LOST DAUGHTER (2): Best Actress (Colman), Adapted Screenplay

SPENCER (2): Best Actress (Stewart), Score

THE FRENCH DISPATCH (2): Best Comedy,  Production Design

FLEE (2): Best Foreign Language Film, Animated Feature

CYRANO (1): Best Actor (Dinklage)

A HERO (1): Best Foreign Language Film

THE HAND OF GOD (1); Best Foreign Language Film

C'MON C'MON (1): Best Young Actor (Norman)

GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS

TFF #48 total nominations: 27

BELFAST 7: Best Picture-Drama, Direction, Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Supporting Actor (Dornan), Song

THE POWER OF THE DOG (7): Best Picture-Drama, Direction, Screenplay, Actor-Drama (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Score

KING RICHARD (4): Best Picture-Drama, Actor-Drama (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Song

CYRANO (2): Best Picture-Musical/Comedy, Actor-Musical/Comedy (Dinklage)

THE LOST DAUGHTER (2): Best Direction, Actress-Drama (Colman)

SPENCER (1): Best Actress/Drama (Stewart)

FLEE (1): Best Animated Feature

THE HAND OF GOD (1): Best Foreign Language Film

A HERO (1): Best Foreign Language Film

THE FRENCH DISPATCH (1): Best Score

MTFB UPDATES OSCAR PREDIX: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND MORE

Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.  These categories were last predicted here on Nov. 29th.  As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE

1) Belfast (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) West Side Story (7)

4) King Richard (3)

5) Dune (4)

6) Licorice Pizza (5)

7) Nightmare Alley (8)

8) CODA (New)

9) Being the Ricardos (6)

10) Don't Look Up (10)

Alternates: Spencer and tick, tick...BOOM

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog (2)

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast (1)

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune (3)

4) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story (Alt.)

5) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza (4)

Alternates: Reinaldo Marcus Green/King Richard and Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) A Hero/Iran (2)

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (1)

3) Drive My Car/Japan (Alt.)

4) The Hand of God/Italy (4)

5) Flee/Denmark (3)

Alternates: Titane/France and Compartment#6/Finland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto (2)

2) The Mitchell's vs. The Machines (3)

3) Flee (1)

4) Luca (4)

5) Belle (5)

Alternates: Raya and the Last Dragon and The Summit of the Gods

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Rescue (2)

2) Flee (1)

3) Summer of Soul (3)

4) Procession (4)

5) Ascension (5)

Alternates: Attica and The First Wave

PLAYLIST 100 AND TFF #49

Each year around this time The Playlist maps out a list of its 100 most anticipated films for the following year. each year I try to cull some ides for what might be in the mix as possible choices for Telluride.  Last year's assessment ended up with me picking 20 films as possible for TFF #48.  That list ended up having seven films that were on TFF's announced list of films for 2021: 

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The Velvet Underground

The Card Counter

Petite Maman

The Power of the Dog

Bergman Island

The French Dispatch

Four films were on last year's list that made the TFF #48 which I did not predict:

King Richard

The Lost Daughter

Red Rocket

C'mon C'mon

So here's my stab at this year's list at some films that could play TFF #49:

#87 The Good Nurse

#77 Kenneth Branagh's Untitled Bee Gees Film

#68 Rustin

#54 The Pale Blue Eye

#52 The Son

#48 The Actor

#47 Beth and Don

#45 The End

#39 Maestro

#38 The Whale

#29 Red, White and Water

#21 Babylon

#15 Showing Up

the other #15 (yes, the list has two 15's) TAR

#14 Armageddon Time

#11 White Noise

#10 Poor Things

#7 Blonde

#6 Bardo

#5 Bones and All

#4 Women Talking

#2 Killer of the Flower Moon

#1 The Killer

The complete Playlist 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2022 is linked here.

INETERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Jamie Dornan/Indiewire

Jane Campion/Indiewire

Jonas Poher Rassmussen/Variety

Asghar Farhadi/Indiwire

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Stephen Sondheim 1930-2021 / MTFB Updates Oscar Predictions: Picture, Director and More / Indiewire' s International Shortlist

STEPHEN SONDHEIM 1930-2021

Musical theater legend Stephen Sondheim has died.  Reports were that the great Broadway songwriter died on Friday morning.  Many of the remembrances over the weekend have made a point that Sondheim was a big fan of film and I'm happy to remind all that Sondheim guest-directed TFF in 2003.  His presentation was a mini-retrospective of the works of Julien Duvivier.  The retrospective consisted of three of Duvivier's films: Panique, La Belle Equipe and Carnet Du Bal.  Sondheim also presented George Stevens' The More the Merrier for TFF #30.

In terms of his own film involvement, Sondheim was an Oscar winner for Original Song for Sooner or Later (I Always Get My Man) in 1991.  He also was the co-screen writer (with Anthony Hopkins) of the 1973 film The Last of Sheila.  Then, of course, there were the adaptations of so many of the musicals that he had been a part of including the upcoming re-imagining of West Side Story from Steven Spielberg.

Sondheim also won a Pulitzer Prize, eight Grammys and eight Tony awards as well as being a Kennedy Center Honors recipient in 1993.

As for me, my fascination with Sondheim began with a love affair with the Judy Collins recording of Send in the Clowns.  I didn't even know that it was from the musical A Little Night Music at the time.  Yet, later that year (1975), my first participation in a college production was as Asst. Prop Master for the production at the University of Oklahoma.  Later in life (2010), A Little Night Music also provided what has been the most moving and transfixing moment I have ever experienced in a Broadway theater as I saw Bernadette Peters in her opening night performance sing the song.

Coincidentally, my little community theater here in the Oklahoma panhandle is prepping to do Into the Woods in February.  My wife has had that on her wish list to direct for decades and we were to have done it a couple of years back...but then Covid-19 changed the world.  It'll be a family affair with my daughter, grandkids and son-in-law joining me as cast members.

The word genius has been overused but in Sondheim's case, it's as close as we can come to finding a single word that can name the thing he was.  As it is, genius isn't a big enough word to use but it's what we have.

MTFB UPDATES OSCAR PREDICITONS: PICTURE, DIRECTOR AND ANIMATED, DOCUMENTARY AND INTERNATIONAL FEATURES

Here's the MTFB latest update on predictions for Academy Award nominations for Best Picture and Best Director, International Feature, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.  These categories were last predicted here on Nov. 15th.  As always TFF #48 films are indicate in Bold and the film's previous position is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST PICTURE 

1) Belfast (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) King Richard (4)

4) Dune (5)

5) Licorice Pizza (3)

6) Being the Ricardos (New)

7) West Side Story (7)

8) Nightmare Alley (6)

9) Spencer (9)

10) Don't Look Up (New)

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and tick, tick...BOOM

BEST DIRECTION

1) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast (1)

2) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog (2)

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune (3)

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza (4)

5) Reinaldo Marcus Green/King Richard (New)

Alternates: Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley and Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) The Worst Person in the World/Norway (1)

2) A Hero/Iran (2)

3) Flee/Denmark (3)

4) The Hand of God/Italy (4)

5) Titane/France (5)

Alternates: Drive My Car/Japan and Compartment #6/Finland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Flee (1)

2) Encanto (2)

3) The Mitchell's vs. the Machines (3)

4) Luca (4)

5) Belle (5)

Alternates: Raya and the Last Dragon and The Summit of the Gods

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1) Flee (1)

2) The Rescue (2)

3) Summer of Soul (3)

4) Procession (5)

5) Ascension (4)

Alternates: Faha Deyi and The Velvet Underground

INDIEWIRE'S INTERNATIONAL SHORT LIST

Indiewire's staff recently compiled a list of 15 films that they suggest are the most likely to be nominated for the Best International Feature Oscar on Feb. 8, 2022.  TFF #48 hosted  four of the 15 films:

Flee/Denmark

The Hand of God/Italy

A Hero/Iran

Unclenching the Fists/Russia

As you can see above, Flee, The Hand of God and A Hero are all included in my current predictions to be nominated.  The Worst Person in the world and Titane, which I have also predicted for nominations are also included in the Indiewire 15.  

You can find that complete list and story linked here.

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MTFB's Oscar Take: Predictions for Screenplays, Visual Effects, Sound and Hair/Makeup / Interview with Belfast's Jamie Dornan

 MFTB OSCAR TAKE: PREDICITONS FOR SCREENPLAYS, VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND AND HAIR/MAKEUP

Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories.  These were last predicted on Nov. 11th.  TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold.  The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast (1)

2) Licorice Pizza (2)

3) King Richard (3)

4) C'mon C'mon (4)

5) Don't Look Up (5)

Alternates: Becoming the Ricardos and A Hero

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) The Lost Daughter (2)

3) CODA (3)

4) Nightmare Alley (4)

5) Passing (5)

Alternates: Dune and West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune (1)

2) The Matrix: Resurrections (2)

3) Eternals (3)

4) Spiderman: No Way Home (4)

5) Godzilla vs. Kong (Alt.)

Alternates: Don't Look Up and Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune (1)

2) West Side Story (2)

3) No Time to Die (3)

4) Belfast (4)

5) The Power of the Dog (5)

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Eternals

BEST HAIR/MAKEUP

1) Dune (1)

2) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (2)

3) House of Gucci (3)

4) Cruella (4)

5) Spencer (5)

Alternates: The French Dispatch and King Richard

INTERVIEW WITH BELFAST'S JAMIE DORNAN

The Irish Times

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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