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MTFB'S FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS

Here they be.

My final Oscar nomination predictions for the 94th Academy Awards. Over the last six years my success rate has been 78.5%. Should that hold tomorrow, I'll land somewhere around 94 out of the 120 nominees that will be announced. Additionally, the film/performer that I have listed as the first alternate in each category will be a nominee in about 30% of the cases where I miss at least one nominee in a category. All that said, BAFTA nominations last week seemed weird and I expect some more weird tomorrow morning.

As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold.

I'll have nominees up sometime fairly soon after the announcements and likely a comment or two.

BEST PICTURE

1) Belfast

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Dune

4) Licorice Pizza

5) West Side Story

6) Don't Look Up

7) CODA

8) King Richard

9) Being the Ricardos

10) tick, tick...BOOM

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Drive My Car

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Denis Villenueve/Dune

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

Alternates: Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car and Adam McKay/Don't Look Up

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci

3) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

4) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

5) Jennifer Hudson/Respect

Alternates: Kristen Stewart/Spencer and Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up

Alternates: Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos and Peter Dinklage/Cyrano

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Caitriona Balfe/Belfast

3) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

4) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

5) Cate Blanchett/Nightmare Alley

Alternates: Ruth Negga/Passing and Anne Dowd/Mass

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Bradley Cooper/Licorice Pizza

5) Jared Leto/House of Gucci

Alternates: Ben Affleck/The Tender Bar and Jamie Dornan/Belfast

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) Being the Ricardos

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) The Lost Daughter

3) West Side Story

4) CODA

5) Drive My Car

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car/Japan

2) The Worst Person in the World/Norway

3) The Hand of God/Italy

4) A Hero/Iran

5) Flee/Denmark

Alternates: Compartment #6/Finland and I'm Your Man/Germany

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Flee

4) Luca

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

Alternates: Belle and Sing 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Flee

2) Summer of Soul

3) The Rescue

4) Ascension

5) Procession

Alternates: Attica and The First Wave

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Belfast

5) Nightmare Alley

Alternates: West Side Story and No Time to Die

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) Belfast

3) The Power of the Dog

4) Don't Look Up

5) Licorice Pizza

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) Belfast

5) The French Dispatch

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Cruella

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) The French Dispatch

4) Don't Look Up

5) Encanto

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and Spencer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Be Alive/King Richard

3) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

4) Just Look Up/Don't Look Up

5) Down to Joy/Belfast

Alternates: Guns Go Bang/The Harder They Fall and Here I Am/Respect

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) West Side Story

4) Nightmare Alley

5) House of Gucci

Alternates: Cyrano and Spencer

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) The Matrix Resurrections

4) No Time to Die

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) No Time to Die

4) Spiderman: No Way Home

5) The Power of the Dog

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) House of Gucci

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

5) Coming 2 America

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Queen of Basketball

2) Terror Contagion

3) When We Were Bullies

4) Days of Rage

5) Coded: The Hidden Loves of J.C. Leyendecker

Alternates: Camp Confidential: America's Secret Nazis and Three Songs for Benazir

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Us Again

2) Robin Robin

3) Namoo

4) Bestia

5) The Windshield Wiper

Alternates: The Musician and Step into the River

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Long Goodbye

2) When the Sun Sets

3) Censor of Dreams

4) Frimas

5) Please Hold

Alternates: Ala Kachuu: Take and Run and Under the Heavens

THOUGHTS:

I have Dune and The Power of the Dog both getting 10 nominations followed by:

Belfast-9

West Side Story-7

Don't Look Up-6

Licorice Pizza and King Richard -5

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci-4

CODA, Being the Ricardos, No Time to Die, Encanto and Flee-3

tick, tick...BOOM, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, Cruella and Spiderman: No Way Home-2

All other films making the list with a single nomination.

Nightmare Alley and House of Gucci are predicted to have the most nominations without a Best Picture nomination. However, if Blanchett does land in Supporting Actress and Nightmare picks up a not necessarily out-of-the question Adapted Screenplay nomination...who knows? I'm rooting for that to happen.

Eleven TFF #48 films should earn at least one nomination and the TFF #48 total predicted nominations stands at 36.

TIGHT SPOTS:

Best Picture: Ay Ay AY! Seems to me that eight or maybe even nine spots are likely decided but that last couple...yeesh. Included in the scrum: Being the Ricardos, Nightmare Alley, tick, tick...BOOM, No Time to Die, Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, House of Gucci, The Tragedy of Macbeth and maybe even Spiderman: No Way Home-though that bubble has lost some air over the last week or so.

Director: Campion, Branagh, PTA and Villenueve look good. Speilberg and Hamaguchi are slugging it out for the fifth spot.

Actress: Kidman, Gaga and Colman seem solid. Then it's ugly tight between Chastain, Hudson, Stewart (who fell so far so fast), Haim and Cruz.

Actor: Smith, Cumberbatch, Garfield and Washington are in good shape. Last spot is a tug-of-war between DiCaprio, Bardem and Dinklage.

Supporting Actress: It already seems like DeBose has the statue in hand. Dunst and Balfe seem safe for a nom. Ellis, Blanchett and Negga are bunched tightly.

Supporting Actor: Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are good to go. Hinds should have been a lock but missing the BAFTA nom last week makes him vulnerable. Cooper has come on strong of late. Last spot probably goes to Leto but there are strong challenges from Affleck, Dornan and a surging Plemons.

Original Screenplay: The top five here seem to be in good shape.

Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog and The Lost Daughter seem locked than it gets brutal with CODA, Drive My Car, West Side Story, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth and Nightmare Alley all battling to get one of the last three spots.

FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITONS FROM THE EXPERTS: