Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here's the first, and perhaps only, MTFB predictions for nominees in the three Shorts categories. The shorts categories are often the categories that determine winners of Oscar pools owing to the limited availability of viewing. So take these all with an incredibly large dose of salt... TFF #52 Shorts are in Bold.
ANIMATED SHORT
1) Eiru
2) Butterfly
3) Playing God
4) Snow Bear
5) Cardboard
Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) All the Empty Rooms
2) The Devil Is Busy
3) Armed With Only a Camera
4) All the Walls Came Down
5) Chasing Time
Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Two People Exchanging Saliva
2) Rock, Paper, Scissors
3) The Singers
4) Extremist
5) Jane Austen's Period Drama
Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.
OSCAR 2026 COMMENTARY
Well, we'll know Thursday when The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces the performers and films that received a sufficient number of votes to earn an Oscar nomination in 24 categories.
24 categories this year with the addition of a Best Casting category. It'll be interesting to see how this category has been adjudicated because the criteria is murky. Will the five films nominated here line up with Best Picture nominees. Can you get nominated here if your film has no individual acting nominees?
Sure Things? Some notes about what seem to be locks.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value and Frankenstein. Then the last four spots look like a free -for-all between It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams, Bugonia, The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good, and F1. Outside possibility: Blue Moon.
Locks in other categories:
Paul Thomas Anderson: Best Direction
Jesse Buckley: Best Actress
Stellan Skarsgard: Best Supporting Actor
Sinners: Best Original Screenplay
K-Pop Demon Hunters: Best Animated Feature
Sinners: Best Cinematography
Sinners: Best Score
K-Pop Demon Hunters: Best Original Song
Frankenstein: Makeup/Hair
Avatar: Fire and Ice: Best Visual Effects
Frankenstein: Costume Design
Most Competitive Categories:
Best Picture: One Battle, Sinners and Hamnet.
Best Actor: Chalamet and DiCaprio.
Best Supporting Actress: Taylor and Madigan.
Best Adapted Screenplay: One Battle and Hamnet.
Best International Feature: Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent.
Best Sound: Sinners and F1
MTFB will have a special post on Wednesday with final nomination predictions.
Here's the latest take on the eight "Above the Line " categories for Oscar nominations that are being announced one week from today. TFF #52 films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (3)
3) Sinners (2)
4) Marty Supreme (4)
5) Frankenstein (6)
6) Sentimental Value (5)
7) It Was Just an Accident (7)
8) Train Dreams (8)
9) The Secret Agent (NR)
10) Bugonia (10)
Others:Wicked: for Good,F1 and Weapons.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)
2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)
3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)
4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (NR)
5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)
2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3)
3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)
4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)
5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)
Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.
BEST ACTOR
1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)
2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)
3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)
4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)
5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)
Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams,Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)
3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)
4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)
5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (5)
4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (3)
5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (4)
Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/SinnersandDelRoy Lindo/Sinners.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Marty Supreme (3)
3) Sentimental Value (2)
4) It Was Just an Accident (4)
5) Weapon (NR)
Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) One Battle After Another (1)
2) Hamnet (2)
3) Train Dreams (3)
4) Frankenstein (5)
5) Bugonia (4)
Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Manand Nuremburg.
I'll have predictions on Monday for the Shorts categories as well as a look at the closest races. Then on Wednesday MTFB will have a special post with final predictions in all 24 categories.
ONLINE FILM CRITICS NOMINATIONS
The Online Film Critics association announced their nominees for film excellence for 2025 on Monday. Here's what happened with films that screened at TFF:
Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Illeaas), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.
Hamnet (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design and Costume.
Frankenstein (7): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
It Was Just an accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and Film Not in the English Language.
The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura and Film Not in the English Language.
Bugonia (2): Best Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS
Before we head into the predictions for Oscar categories that haven't appeared in MTFB thus far this season; here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories. TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold. A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
2) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (4)
4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Sinners (1)
2) Sentimental Value (2)
3) Marty Supreme (3)
4) Jay Kelly (4)
5) It Was Just an Accident (5)
Others: Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent and Weapons.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Hamnet (1)
2) One Battle After Another (2)
3) Bugonia (4)
4) Train Dreams (5
5) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)
Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choiceand Wicked: For Good.
COVER-UP TRAILER AND INTERVIEW
Here's the official trailer for Laura Poitras' documentary about reporter Seymour Hersh. from Netflix via YouTube:
Additionally, an interview from Variety with Poitras and co-director and Mark Obenhaus.
I have usually been pretty diligent about noticing viewership milestones but in the craziness of the last three months I overlooked that MTFB had passed a fairly significant one. according to the view tracker MTFB passed One and a half million views somewhere around Halloween.
As of this morning I have posted 2401 times. 2402 if you count this one. That means an average of 634 views per post.
The most viewed post is from Jan. 4, 2018. It's about Film Guilds and the Oscar season and an interview from Variety with Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on Lady Bird. Over 2,750 views.
As always, thanks to all of you who follow my obsession.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
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Sorry that I'm late this morning. It was a long weekend.
MTFB continues its up date of Oscar predictions with the Supporting Acting Categories. These predictions will include the actors current ranking as well as its position from two weeks back. TFF #52 films are in Bold.
SUPPRORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)
3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)
4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.
Comment: This category is very stable at the moment.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)
Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
Comment: Also a very stable category with the exception of Jacob Elordi jumping into the #6 spot.
HAMNET WINS ANOTHER AUDIENCE AWARD
Chloe Zhao's Hamnet won the Toronto Film Festival Audience Award in September and last week added that same accolade from the BFI London Film Festival. Additionally the film tied with Rental Family for the Audience Award the Middleburg Film Fest.
Last week Gold Derby reported that Hamnet had slipped by One Battle After Another to become (by the slimmest of margins) their predicted favorite to win Best Picture. As of this morning that was still holding true.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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Today I am continuing my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Supporting Acting categories. All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good
3) Amy Madigan/Weapons
4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value
5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value
Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Jennifer Lopez/Kiss of the Spider Woman.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value
2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another
3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet
4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly
5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another
Others: Delroy Lindo/Sinners, Billy Crudup/Jay Kelly and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.
NEW POSTER FOR PILLION
Fresh from A24, here's a new poster for Henry Lighton's Pillion:
We continue today with our rundown of Oscar gurus and their early line Best Picture nominee predictions as we move through the New York Film Festival which will end the wave of the four major fall film fests: Venice, Telluride, Toronto and NYFF.
Today's view comes from Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch. Here are his current predictions for Best Picture. TFF #52 films are Bold.
1) One Battle After Another
2) Hamnet
3) Sinners
4) Sentimental Value
5) Jay Kelly
6) Marty Supreme
7) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
8) It Was Just an Accident
9) Frankenstein
10) Wicked: For Good
Other TFF #52 in the 11-20 spots:
13) The Secret agent
15) Bugonia
This set of predictions would put six TFF #52 titles in the list of ten nominees which would be a TFF record.
To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V) and Awards Watch (AW) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.
Hamnet (4): GD, THR, V, AW
Sentimental Value (4): GD, THR, V, AW
Jay Kelly (3): GD, THR, AW
Bugonia (3): GD, THR, V
It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW
The Secret Agent (2): THR, V
Frankenstein (2): V, AW
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): AW
CLIP: BORN TO RUN FROM SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
From 20th Century Studios and YouTube, a clip of Born to Run:
VISITATIONS
BEHIND THE SCENES OF SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
From YouTube:
PAUL MESCAL FOR THE HISTORY OF SOUND FROM INDIEWIRE:
We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros. This year 11 films had enough responses from both groups to make this list. There are three films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other. Those were Nouvelle Vague which didn't make the People's list and If I Had Legs I'd Kick you as well as A Private Life which weren't seen by enough Pros.
So, here's the Composite. Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.
1) Hamnet 9.19 [1-1]
2) Sentimental Value 8.79 [2-3]
3) It Was Just an Accident 8.58 [3-4]
4) Bugonia 7.85 [9-2]
5) Jay Kelly 7.79 [4-8]
6) The History of Sound 7.67 [5-7]
7) [TIE] Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 7.30 [8-6]
7) [TIE] Tuner 7.30 [10-5]
9) Blue Moon 7.12 [7-10]
10) Frankenstein 6.64 [12-9]
11) Ballad of a Small Player 6.11 [11-13]
After these additions the All Time Composite Top Ten looks like this:
1) (TIE) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 (Won Best Picture)
1) (TIE) Argo (9.25) 2012 (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) (TIE) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
4) (TIE) Hamnet (9.19) 2025 (???)
6) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
7) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
8) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
9) Poor Things (9.04) 2023 (Nominated Best Picture)
10) (TIE) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
10) (TIE) Anora (8.97) 2024 (Won Best Picture)
So Chloe Zhao's Hamnet lands tied with Moonlight for the fourth best Composite score of all time.
An expanded list of The Composite and updated All Time ratings for all three categories (Pros, Peeps and Composite) can be found on the "Film Ratings from Past Fests" page. The tab for that is above.
One last thing. The top 10 films that were most viewed as a percentage of the total number of people who rated films for The People's Telluride.
They're back. It's time to reveal the results of MTFB's annual poll of film industry professionals who agreed to rate the films on a 1-5 scale and allow me then to collate and average those scores. The pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders. To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros. That threshold allowed a dozen films to make the list.
Here are the Pros for TFF #52:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Josh Bis/Seattle Film Critics Society and TheSunBreak.com
Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential
Clayton Davis/Variety
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Mark Johnson/The Awards Alchemist
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Scott Kernan/Awards Daily
Tomris Laffly/Film Critic and Journalist
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Will Mavity/Next Best Picture
Clarence Moye/The Contending
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
And here are your Professionals average ratings:
1) Hamnet 4.64
2) Sentimental Value 4.49
3) It Was Just an Accident 4.35
4) Jay Kelly 4.01
5) The History of Sound 3.88
6) Nouvelle Vague 3.76
7) Blue Moon 3.69
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 3.50
9) Bugonia 3.48
10) Tuner 3.14
11) Ballad of a Small Player 2.89
12) Frankenstein 2.87
Just missing out on making the list because they were one pro shy of the threshold were The Secret Agent, La Grazia and A Private Life.
Historically, Hamnet's 4.64 will put it in the Professionals all time top ten at #7 and because there is a tie for the 10th spot, no film drops out of this top ten.
New all time PROs Top Ten Films
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16) (Won Best Picture)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19) (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (4.73) (18) (Nominated Best Picture)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14) (Won Best Picture)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13) (Won Best Picture)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Hamnet (4.64) (25)
8) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
9) La La Land (4.58) (16) (Nominated Best Picture)
10) Poor Things (4.53) (23) (Nominated Best Picture)
10) Anora (4.53) (24) (Won Best Picture)
TELLURIDE WINS TORONTO
The Toronto International Film festival's People's Choice Award for 2025 was won by Chloe Zhao's Hamnet. Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein was second and Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man took third.
As you can see above, Hamnet scored well with the Professionals at Telluride and we'll reveal The People's Telluride results on Thursday.
This is the final call for film ratings from The People. You folks who watched films at TFF #52. The deadline to rate is 5:00pm PDT this evening. Email them to me at mpgot@gmail.com.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
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You've have a few days left to get your ratings in for The People's Telluride. At the moment we're at about half the respondents (maybe a bit more) that normally participate each year. Additionally, the Pros are doing their part and I plan to have the The Professionals ratings up a week from today.
Again, email me a list of the films you saw and rate each on a 1 to 5 scale. 1 means it was very bad, 5 means you thought it was terrific. Decimals are fine.
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com