MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for All 24 Categories / The Experts Weigh In

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: F1, Wicked: for Good and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (2)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (3)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (5)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (2)

3) Sentimental Value (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (5)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (5)

Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Cover-Up (3)

4) The Alabama Solution (4)

5) Apocalypse in the Tropics (*TFF #51) (NR)

Others: Come See Me in the Good Light, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (3)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

5) Elio (5)

Others: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer, The Magnificent Life.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle after Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Hamnet (5)

Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)

4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (4)

5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)

Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: Fire and Ash.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Wicked: For Good (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Hedda (5)

Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) The Smashing Machine (4)

5) Kokuho (5)

Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1 (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Superman (5)

Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Eiru

2) Butterfly

3) Playing God

4) Snow Bear

5) Cardboard

Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) The Devil Is Busy

3) Armed With Only a Camera

4) All the Walls Came Down

5) Chasing Time

Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) Rock, Paper, Scissors

3) The Singers

4) Extremist

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.

THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN

Here's a rundown of how some Oscar experts are predicting nominations for Telluride films:

***VARIETY

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costumes, Editing and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (4): Best Picture, Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Production Design.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Casting and International Feature.

Blue Moon (2) Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

It Was Just and Accident: Best International Feature.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Variety has 11 TFF films earning 42 nominations.

Here's the link to Variety's complete list of Oscar nomination predictions.

***INDIEWIRE

Frankenstein (12): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Sentimental Value (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best International Feature and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Indiewire has 11 TFF films with 41 nominations.

The complete list of Indiewire's Final Predictions is here.

***NEXT BEST PICTURE

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas),, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard) Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone)and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary (TFF #51)

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

NBP has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

https://nextbestpicture.com/oscar-predictions-best-picture/

***THE CONTENDING

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Original Screenplay and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

The Contending has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

The complete list of The Contending's predictions is here.

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MTFB Oscar Take: International, Doc, Animated and Casting #3 / National Society of Film Critics and TFF #52/ Critics Choice Awards and TFF #52

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND PREDICTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURES AND CASTING

Here's MTFB's third round of Oscar nomination predictions for these four categories.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) Sirat (5)

5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (4)

Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Cover-Up (4)

4) The Alabama Solution (5)

5) My Undesirable Friends Part 1...(NR)

Others: Apocalypse in the Tropics*, Come See Me in the Good Light and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (3)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

5) Elio (5)

Others: In Your Dreams, Demon slayer, The Magnificent Life.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.

NATIONAL SOCIETY OF FILM CRITICS AWARDS

The National Society of Film Critics announced their awards for 2025 this past weekend.  Here's how TFF #52 showed:

The Secret Agent: Winner: Best Foreign Language Film, First Runner-up Actor (Moura), Second Runner-up Best Picture and Second Runner-up Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident: Winner Best Screenplay, First Runner-up Film in a Foreign Language and First Runner-up Director.

Blue Moon: Winner Best Actor (Hawke), First Runner-up Screenplay, 2nd Runner-up Director.

Sentimental Value: Second Runner-up Film in a Foreign Language, 2nd Runner-up Actress (Reinsve), Second Runner-up Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Second Runner-up Supporting Actor (Skarsgard).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Forst Runner-up Actress (Byrne).

Nouvelle Vague: Second Runner-up Director (along with Blue Moon).

Here's the link for the complete NSFC Awards.

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS AND TFF #52

Also occurring this past weekend were the Critics Choice Awards.  Here's how the films from TFF #52 fared:

Frankenstein (4): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Production Design, Costumes, Make-up/Hair.

Hamnet: Best Actress (Buckley)

Sentimental Value: Best Foreign Language Film

Here are the complete Critics Choice Awards from The Hollywood Reporter.

And coming up this week announcements from The Producers Guild, Directors Guild, SAG/Aftra (SAG Awards) and BAFTA's longlists.  Hold your breath!!!

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MTFB Oscar Take: Second Predictions for International, Documentary and Animated Features and Casting / New York Film Critics Online Announce 2025 Nominees / Visitations

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND PREDICTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL, DOCUMENTARY AND ANIMATED FEATURES AND CASTING

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) No Other Choice (South Korea) (4)

5) Sirat (Spain) (NR)

Others: The Voice of hind Rajab, Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and 2000 Meters to Andriivka.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51) (3)

4) Cover-Up (5)

5) The Alabama Solution (4)

Others: Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, Orwell: 2+2=5,  and Come See Me in the Good Light.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (3)

3) Arco (2)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (NR)

5) Elio (4)

Others: In Your Dreams, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (5)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Nouvelle Vague.

 NEW YORK CRITICS ONLINE ANNOUNCE 2025 NOMINEES

13 Telluride #52 films earned 41 nominations this past week from The New York Film Critics Online.  Hamnet and Sentimental lead the way for TFF films with each film grabbing 10 nominations.  Here's the list:

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor (X2), Ensemble, Use of Music, Cinematography and Breakthrough Performance.

Sentimental Value (10): Best Picture, Direction, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (X2), Supporting Actor, Ensemble, Breakthrough Performance and International Feature.

It was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Ensemble and International Feature.

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (3): Best Picture, Screenplay and Actress.

Bugonia (3): Best Screenplay, Actress and Actor.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.

Frankenstein (2): Best Supporting Actor and Cinematography.

Pillion (2): Best Supporting Actor and Debut Director.

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor.

Jay Kelly (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (1): Best Use of Music.

Urchin (1): Best Debut Director.

Cover-Up (1): Best Documentary.

VISITATIONS

The Making of Frankenstein from The Hollywood Reporter.

Noah Baumbach on Jay Kelly and More from The Hollywood Reporter.

The Jacobi Brothers on Hamnet from Awards Watch.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for the Final Five Feature Categories . The Deluge Begins: New York Film Critics Circle, Gotham Awards, National Board of Review

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FINAL FIVE FEATURE CATEGORIES

Today we add final five feature categories with initial predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Hamnet

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Sinners

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked: For Good

2) Frankenstein

3) Sinners

4) Hamnet

5) Kiss of the Spiderwoman

Others: One Battle After Another, Hedda and Marty Supreme.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Wicked: For Good

3) The Smashing Machine

4) Sinners

5) Weapons

Others: 28 Years Later, Bugonia and One Battle After Another.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) Wicked: For Good

4) One Battle After Another

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Frankenstein, Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere..

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Superman

5) Frankenstein

Others: Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and The Fantastic Four.

Sooo...at this point, if the nominations were announced tomorrow, MTFB is currently predicting the following :

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design and Costumes.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Two in Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor Original Screenplay, and International Feature.

Frankenstein (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor.

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

and from TFF #51: Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.

That's 10 TFF films nominated and a total of  40 nominations.

THE DELUGE BEGINS

Pre-nomination Oscar precursors bean to weigh in with force the past few days.  TFF films were faring moderately well.

New York Film Critics Circle: TFF films awarded were:

Best Direction: Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident.

Best International Film: The Secret Agent.

Best actress: Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Actor: Walter Moura/The Secret Agent.

The Gotham Awards and TFF films:

Best Direction: Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident

Best International Feature: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Original Screenplay: It Was Just an Accident.

Pillion: Best Adapted Screenplay.

National Board of Review:

Best Actress: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Supporting Actress: Inga Idsbotter Lileaas/Sentimental Value.

Best International Film: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Documentary: Cover-Up.

 From NBR's Top Films list: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly.

From NBR's Top Five International Films: The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value.

From NBR's Top Ten Independent Films: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, The Mastermind, Urchin.

The complete NBR list is here.

Finally, The Golden Globe nominations will be announced on Monday.  I'll have that then.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for Four Categories / Cover-Up Trailer / Visitations: Buckley, Mescal, White and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Today we add four more categories with initial predictions for Cinematography, Editing, Score and Song.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle after Another

3) Sinners

4) Frankenstein

5) Train Dreams

Others: F1, One Battle After Another and Wicked: For Good.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) F1

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Sentimental Value, Avatar: Fire and Ash and The House of Dynamite.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Hamnet

4) Frankenstein

5) Marty Supreme

Others: Jay Kelly, Bugonia and Hedda.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless

4) The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good

5) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners

Others: No Place Like Here/Wicked: For Good, Drive/F1 and Clothed by the Sun/The Last Testament of Ann Lee.

TRAILER: COVER-UP

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS: BUCKLEY, MESCAL, WHITE AND MORE

Jesse Buckley and Paul Mescal for Hamnet from Letterboxd via YouTube.

Writer Maggie O'Farrell for Hamnet from Awards Watch.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere for The Hollywood Reporter's Awards Chatter.

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Quick Post for Thanksgiving Day: MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions for Four Categories

QUICK POST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY: MTFB FIRST OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS FOR FOUR CATEGORIES

Welcome to MTFB  and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Today we have a short post due to the holiday.  But and important post it is as I begin to expand the breadth of MTFB's Oscar predictions.  Todo so I'm adding first predictions for four categories including the newly added category of Best Casting.  Additionally, we'll take a first shot at Best International Film, Best Documentary and Best Animated Film.  As always TFF #52 (and #51) are indicated in Bold.  Here we go!

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

1) Sentimental Value (Norway)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4) No Other Choice (South Korea)

5) The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Others: The President's Cake (Iraq), Sirat (Spain) and Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka

3) Apocalypse in the Tropics (TFF #51)

4) The Alabama Solution

5) Cover-Up

Others: Orwell: 2+2=5, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk and The Librarians.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Arco

3) Zootopia 2

4) Elio

5) In Your Dreams

Others: Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, The Magnificent Life, Scarlet.

BEST CASTING

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Marty Supreme

4) Wicked: For Good

5) Hamnet

Others: Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man and Train Dreams.

MTFB returns Monday with first predictions in four other categories.

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MTFB Oscar take: Supporting Acting and Screenplays / Cover-up Trailer and Interview / 1.5 Mill

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAYS

Before we head into the predictions for Oscar categories that haven't appeared in MTFB thus far this season; here are the updated predictions for the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories.  TFF #52 films and performers are in Bold.  A film's previous ranking is to the right of the title in parentheses.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

2) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (4)

4) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Is This Thing On?, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Bugonia (4)

4) Train Dreams (5

5) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COVER-UP TRAILER AND INTERVIEW

Here's the official trailer for Laura Poitras' documentary about reporter Seymour Hersh.  from Netflix via YouTube:

Additionally, an interview from Variety with Poitras and co-director and Mark Obenhaus.

That is linked here.

1.5 MILL

I have usually been pretty diligent about noticing viewership milestones but in the craziness of the last three months I overlooked that MTFB had passed a fairly significant one.  according to the view tracker MTFB passed One and a half million views somewhere around Halloween.

As of this morning I have posted 2401 times.  2402 if you count this one.  That means an average of 634 views per post.  

The most viewed post is from Jan. 4, 2018.  It's about Film Guilds and the Oscar season and an interview from Variety with Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig on Lady Bird. Over 2,750 views.

As always, thanks to all of you who follow my obsession.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Ten Bets (Plus)#10 for TFF #52 / Mystery Doc to Play Telluride / Cleaning Up Some Weirdness / Who Could Be at TFF #52? / Awards Watch Pod is All T-ride This Week / Trailers: Ballad of a Small Player and The History of Sound / the 13th People's Telluride

TEN BETS (PLUS) FOR TFF #52

We really are getting down to it.  Eight more days and the 52nd Telluride Film Festival opens.  So here's the penultimate set of "Bets" for what may play at TFF #52.  First, a recap of last week's "Bets":

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

16) Pillion

17) La Grazia

18) Resurrection

19) Nuestra Tierra

20) Blue Moon

Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

This week' Ten Bets (Plus):

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Bugonia/Lanthimos

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Tuner/Roher

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

16) Pillion/Lighton

17) La Grazia/Sorrentino

18) Resurrection/Bi Gan

19) Blue Moon/Linklater

20) A Private Life/Zlotowski

Other possibilities: Secret Documentary with Oscar Isaac, Barrio Triste, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

The Final Bets will be published next Wednesday in a Special Post!!!

MYSTERY DOC TO PLAY TELLURIDE

I've certainly been bemoaning the fact that Guillermo Del Toro's Frankenstein isn't indicated for Telluride.  Toronto has it listed as a North American premiere.  But it seems that at least one of members of that cast will make the trek from its Venetian World premiere to Telluride and that is none other than Dr. Frankenstein himself, Oscar Isaac.

How do we know this?  Variety had a huge, splashy piece on Frankenstein up yesterday with .  The piece includes interview responses from Del Toro, Isaac and Jacob Elordi who plays the monster.  Included in the story is this nugget:

"After the Venice gala, Isaac will fly to Telluride to screen a secret documentary that involves him. Then he travels back to Venice for the debut of “In the Hand of Dante,” a mob drama directed by Julian Schnabel."

A secret documentary?  Yes, it is.  I can't find a peep about it and I spent some time digging.

So, as you'll see above in the Ten Bets section, I've added that to the list of "Possibilities" and I'm very interested to find out what the story is here.

The complete Variety piece is linked here.

CLEANING UP SOME WEIRDNESS

In my last post I had a section describing some disconnects between  premiere designations between Toronto and New York.  Some of that has been explained.

A friendly reader pointed me toward the Camden International Film Festival which runs the weekend after Telluride so that also means before New York (Sept. 26-Oct. 13) and its lineup explains what seems to be the contradiction between the two film fest's designation. Three films in question will be playing Camden: Nuestra Tierra (Landmarks), With Hasan in Gaza and Evidence.  Camden lists Nuestra Tierra and With Hasan in Gaza as U.S. premieres and Evidence as a North American premiere.  That clears up what looked like a disconnect between  the Toronto and New York designations and means none of those films are likely playing at Telluride.

Meanwhile Sirat, another film with a TIFF/NYFF contradiction has been announced by Fantastic Fest (Sept. 18-25) as a U.S. premiere so the same logic applies and it looks like Sirat is definitively off the TFF#52 list.

That leaves Blue Moon, A Private Life and Barrio Triste as still unexplained TIFF/NYFF contradictory designations.  Of the three it feels to me like Blue Moon is the most likely to play Telluride then A Private Life and lastly, Barrio Triste.

WHO COULD BE AT TFF #52?

Hamnet: Chloe Zhao, Paul Mescal, Jesse Buckley, Emily Watson, Joe Alwyn

Sentimental Value: Joachim Trier, Stellan Skarsgard, Rene Reinsve, Elle Fanning

The Ballad of a Small Player: Edward Berger, Colin Farrell, Tilda Swinton

Nouvelle Vague: Richard Linklater, Zoe Deutch

Tuner: Daniel Roher, Dustin Hoffman

Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere: Scott Cooper, Jeremy Allen White, Paul Walter Hauser, Jeremy Strong, Stephen Graham (and in a perfect world, the Boss himself)

The History of Sound: Oliver Hermanus, Paul Mescal, Josh O'Connor, Chis Cooper

Jay Kelly: Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler, Laura Dern, Greta Gerwig

Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, Jesse Plemons

The Mastermind: Kelly Reichardt, John Magaro, Josh O'Connor, Bill Camp, Hope Davis, Gaby Hoffman

Hamlet: Riz Ahmed, Joe Alwyn, Timothy Spall

Pillion: Henry Lighton, Alexander Skarsgard, Henry Melling

Blue Moon: Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, Andrew Scott, Margaret Qualley, Bobby Canavalle

Secret Documentary: Oscar Isaac

Others from among the "Possibles" list:

Jodie Foster

Jennifer Lawrence

Robert Pattinson

Zendaya

Amy Adams

Anne Hathaway

Kate Mara

Rooney Mara

Orlando Bloom

Joel Edgerton

Felicity Jones

AWARDS WATCH PODCAST IS ALL T-RIDE THIS WEEK

Awards Watch gathered about half a dozen folks who will all be attending TFF for their podcast this week so the focus is all about predicting films and potential Tribute recipients.  It's interesting.  They've got a title or two that I don't currently have and a slew of guesses about Silver Medallions.    Take a listen if you're so inclined:

This links to the podcast.

TRAILERS: 

THE BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER

THE HISTORY OF SOUND

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-13TH EDITION

For the 13th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will by Sept. 15th.

I'll compile all of your responses and post those a few days after the festival.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Ten Bets (Plus) #9 for TFF #52 / New York Spotlight Clues, Confusions and Confirmations / Marty Supreme Drama / First Photo of Hamnet

TEN BETS (PLUS) #9 FOR TFF #52

New info earlier this week from announcements coming from the New York Film Fest and the Toronto International Film Festival inform this week's Ten Bets.  New York's Spotlight section announcements seem to confirm that La Grazia and Pillion are headed to Telluride.  

What will NOT be playing Telluride as it will World Premiere at New York id the return of Daniel Day-Lewis to film acting in Anemone.

Confusion was created when New York also listed Blue Moon and A Private Life as "New York" premieres as opposed to a "U.S." premiere designation.  Much like Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) last week, that designation puts those film at odds with their "North American" premiere designations from TIFF.  Both designations can't be true.  Consequently I'll be putting both A Private Life as well as Blue Moon back on the list.

Toronto announced half a dozen new films and dropped their schedule on Tuesday.  The six films didn't reveal any Telluride possibilities but did confirm that No Other Choice and The Wizard of the Kremlin are not T-ride players. 

By way of recap, here's last week's Ten Bets (Plus):

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

And this week's goes like this:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

16) Pillion

17) La Grazia

18) Resurrection

19) Nuestra Tierra

20) Blue Moon

Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

NEW YORK SPOTLIGHT CLUES AND CONFUSIONS 

Last Tuesday the New York Film Festival revealed their Spotlight section films and those reveals and their premiere designations provide us Telluride watchers with some clues.

First, the bad news... the Daniel Day-Lewis coming-out-of-acting-retirement film Anemone was announced as a NYFF World premiere...meaning no Telluride.

Some good news... from their designations as New York premieres it looks like Pillion and La Grazia are almost certainly Telluride bound.  La Grazia is opening Venice so has time to get to Telluride.

Some confusion:  Blue Moon and A Private Life were also listed as New York premieres which is a curious designation as those two films were announced by Toronto as Nort American premieres.  Both things cannot be true.  If the Toronto designation is correct then no Telluride for either film.  If the New York designation is trye that would signify a Telluride play as NYFF would almost assuredly have designated them as U.S. premieres if they were not playing Telluride.  That's illustrated by the U.S. premiere designation for Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk.  It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.  For now, I'm back to cautious optimism about both films for Labor Day.

Some confirmations... Nouvelle Vague announced as a NY preem confirms for Telluride.

A couple of other notes...documentaries about Martin Scorsese and Anne Meara and Jerry Stiller are labelled World premieres so no Telluride for either.  I thought the Scorsese doc was a real possibility.

Here is the complete announcement from the New York Fest.

MARTY SUPREME DRAMA

Early in the week there was quite a bit of scuttlebutt that Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme might be showing up at a "fall fest" after all.  There was a good deal of speculation about what fest that might be.  With Toronto and New York purportedly done announcing films the likely culprits would be Telluride, New York or AFI.

Now, I was really hoping that might mean a landing at TFF #52 but replying to a query on X I expressed that it was my belief that the odds were 3-1 in New York's favor.  That estimate seems to have been born out.  According to World of Reel on Wednesday, if it is to happen it will be at NYFF.

FIRST PHOTO FROM HAMNET

We're 99% sure Chloe Zhao's Hamnet will bow at TFF #52.  Tuesday we got our first official image from the film that stars Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley.  Here that is:

The IMDb description for Hamnet:

The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.

Hamnet is set for a limited opening on Nov. 27th.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com