Oscar 2026 and TFF

OSCAR 2026 AND TFF

Just a brief TFF check this morning post-Oscar.

TELLURIDE FILMS EARN SEVEN OSCARS

Guillermo Del Toro's was the most honored film that played Telluride last Labor Day with three wins last night: Best Production Design, Best Makeup/Hair Design and Best Costume design.

Four other TFF films won single Oscars:

Hamnet: Best Actress-Jesse Buckley

Sentimental Value (Norway): Best International Feature

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Best Live Action Short (in a tie, unbelievably, with The Singers)

OVERALL

One Battle After Another was the big winner of the evening with six Oscars: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Sean Penn) Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Casting.

Sinners was next with four wins: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Frankenstein with three...listed above

K-pop Demon Hunters with two: Best Animated Feature, Original Song

Single wins for:

Hamnet, Sentimental Value, All the Empty Rooms and Two People Exchanging Saliva listed above.  And...

Weapons: Best Supporting Actress; Amy Madigan

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Best Documentary Feature

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Best Visual Effects

F1: Sound

The Singers: Best Live Action Short (tie)

AND THE BLOG...

2026 might have been my best year for predicting ever. 20.5 (that's how I'm counting the Live Action tie) out of 24 categories for a 85.4% accuracy rate.  I missed Best Casting, Documentary Feature and Cinematography.  And in each of those three categories, I had the winner listed as the "Could Be".

In as far as where I would have ended up with regard to comparison with Gold Derby's Experts... Well, they counted an answer of  either Two People or The Singers as fully correct.  Using that same metric I would have tied their experts for the top spot.  They counted those as 87.5% accurate.  Had I been listed I would have tied with Mark Johnson (Awards Watch and The Contending), Tomris Laffly (Freelance), Gregory Ellwood (The Playist), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter) and Pete Hammond (Deadline).

Here's the link to The Gold Derby results.

Again, for the third year...Gold Derby...I'm awaiting my invitation to join your crew of experts for next year.

Now...onto puzzling out the 2026 version of Telluride.  For those who are curious, for whatever reasons, I am planning to be in The Ride for the festival again this year.

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Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight.  Here are the final predictions from MTFB.  Good luck in your Oscar pool!  TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner:  Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST  ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and  Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

Well, better a day late than never.  Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters 

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air.  If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

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MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for All 24 Categories / The Experts Weigh In

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: F1, Wicked: for Good and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (2)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (3)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (5)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (2)

3) Sentimental Value (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (5)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (5)

Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Cover-Up (3)

4) The Alabama Solution (4)

5) Apocalypse in the Tropics (*TFF #51) (NR)

Others: Come See Me in the Good Light, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (3)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

5) Elio (5)

Others: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer, The Magnificent Life.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle after Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Hamnet (5)

Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)

4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (4)

5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)

Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: Fire and Ash.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Wicked: For Good (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Hedda (5)

Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) The Smashing Machine (4)

5) Kokuho (5)

Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1 (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Superman (5)

Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Eiru

2) Butterfly

3) Playing God

4) Snow Bear

5) Cardboard

Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) The Devil Is Busy

3) Armed With Only a Camera

4) All the Walls Came Down

5) Chasing Time

Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) Rock, Paper, Scissors

3) The Singers

4) Extremist

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.

THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN

Here's a rundown of how some Oscar experts are predicting nominations for Telluride films:

***VARIETY

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costumes, Editing and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (4): Best Picture, Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Production Design.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Casting and International Feature.

Blue Moon (2) Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

It Was Just and Accident: Best International Feature.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Variety has 11 TFF films earning 42 nominations.

Here's the link to Variety's complete list of Oscar nomination predictions.

***INDIEWIRE

Frankenstein (12): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Sentimental Value (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best International Feature and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Indiewire has 11 TFF films with 41 nominations.

The complete list of Indiewire's Final Predictions is here.

***NEXT BEST PICTURE

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas),, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard) Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone)and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary (TFF #51)

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

NBP has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

https://nextbestpicture.com/oscar-predictions-best-picture/

***THE CONTENDING

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Original Screenplay and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

The Contending has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

The complete list of The Contending's predictions is here.

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