Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight.  Here are the final predictions from MTFB.  Good luck in your Oscar pool!  TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner:  Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST  ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and  Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

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MTFB First Predictions for Oscar Winners

MTFB FIRST PREDICTIONSFOR OSCAR WINNERS

Here is the first set of what I think is going to happen on the evening of March 15th at the 98th Oscar ceremony.  We'll start with the eight "above-the-line categories.  TFF films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Frankenstein

7) The Secret Agent

8) Bugonia

9) Train Dreams

10) F1

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another

3) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

4) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) It Was Just an Accident

5) Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Train Dreams

4) Bugonia

5) Frankenstein

This and that:

***OBAA is projected to win three of these eight categories.  It's the only film projected to win more than one. among these eight categories.

***TFF has 23 nominees among these eight categories.  Jesse Buckley looks like the only TFF win.

***As a matter of fact, Best Actress goes to a TFF film unless Kate Hudson pulls an upset.

***The only close races here is Best Picture which is a tight race between OBAA and Sinners.  The rest of the seven other categories seem set right now.

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MTFB'S Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for All 24 Categories / The Experts Weigh In

MTFB's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (3)

3) Sinners (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (6)

6) Sentimental Value (5)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (8)

9) The Secret Agent (NR)

10) Bugonia (10)

Others: F1, Wicked: for Good and Weapons.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Guillermo Del Toro/Frankenstein (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Jafar Panhani/It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (2)

3) Renee Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (5)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue , Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: Joel Edgerton/Train Dreams, Jesse Plemons/Bugonia and George Clooney/Jay Kelly

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Ariana Grande/Wicked" For Good (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners, Regina Hall/One Battle After Another and Odessa A'Zion/Marty Supreme.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (3)

4) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (4)

5) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (5)

Others: Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly, Miles Caton/Sinners and DelRoy Lindo/Sinners.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Marty Supreme (2)

3) Sentimental Value (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Weapon (5)

Others: Sorry, Baby, Jay Kelly and The Secret Agent.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

Others: No Other Choice, Wakeup Dead Man and Nuremburg.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (Norway) (1)

2) It Was Just an Accident (France) (2)

3) The Secret Agent (Brazil) (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) No Other Choice (South Korea) (5)

Others: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and Kukuho (Japan).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) 2000 Meters to Andriivka (2)

3) Cover-Up (3)

4) The Alabama Solution (4)

5) Apocalypse in the Tropics (*TFF #51) (NR)

Others: Come See Me in the Good Light, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 and Mr. Nobody Against Putin.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (3)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

5) Elio (5)

Others: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer, The Magnificent Life.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Frankenstein, Sentimental Value and Weapons.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle after Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Train Dreams (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Hamnet (5)

Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)

4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (4)

5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)

Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: Fire and Ash.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Wicked: For Good (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

Others: Avatar: Fire and Ash, One Battle After Another and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) Hedda (5)

Others: The Testament of Ann Lee, Marty Supreme and Kiss of the Spiderman.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) The Smashing Machine (4)

5) Kokuho (5)

Others: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme and Nuremburg.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1 (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Avatar: Fire and Ash (NR)

5) Wicked: For Good (4)

Others: Sirat, Frankenstein and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Superman (5)

Others: Wicked: For Good, Jurassic World Rebirth and The Lost Bus.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Eiru

2) Butterfly

3) Playing God

4) Snow Bear

5) Cardboard

Others: The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Hurikan, The Quinta's Ghost and The Shyness of Trees.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) The Devil Is Busy

3) Armed With Only a Camera

4) All the Walls Came Down

5) Chasing Time

Others: Classroom 4, We Were the Scenery and Perfectly a Strangeness.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) Rock, Paper, Scissors

3) The Singers

4) Extremist

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

Others: Beyond Silence, Pantyhose and The Boy with White Skin.

THE EXPERTS WEIGH IN

Here's a rundown of how some Oscar experts are predicting nominations for Telluride films:

***VARIETY

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Production Design, Costumes, Editing and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Sound and Score.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (4): Best Picture, Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Production Design.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Casting and International Feature.

Blue Moon (2) Best Actor (Hawke) and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

It Was Just and Accident: Best International Feature.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Variety has 11 TFF films earning 42 nominations.

Here's the link to Variety's complete list of Oscar nomination predictions.

***INDIEWIRE

Frankenstein (12): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Hamnet (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Costumes, Editing, Score and Production Design.

Sentimental Value (5): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best International Feature and Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

Extremist: Best Live Action Short.

Indiewire has 11 TFF films with 41 nominations.

The complete list of Indiewire's Final Predictions is here.

***NEXT BEST PICTURE

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas),, Supporting Actor (Skarsgard) Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay, International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone)and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (3): Best Picture, Actor (Moura) and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary (TFF #51)

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

NBP has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

https://nextbestpicture.com/oscar-predictions-best-picture/

***THE CONTENDING

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design and Score.

Frankenstein (10): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay, Casting and International Feature.

The Secret Agent (4): Best Picture, Actor (Moura), Original Screenplay and International Feature.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short.

All the Walls Came Down: Best Documentary Short.

The Contending has 11 TFF films earning 44 nominations.

The complete list of The Contending's predictions is here.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Cinematography, Editing, Score and Song / SAG Nominees / ADG Nominees

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATES FOR CINEMATOGRAPHY, EDITING, SCORE AND SONG.

Here are MTFB's third predictions for nominations for cinematography, editing, score and song.  All TFF #52 films are Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle after Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Train Dreams (5)

5) Frankenstein (4)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Bugonia.

BEST EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (4)

4) Marty Supreme (5)

5) Hamnet (3)

Others: Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Train Dreams (NR)

Others: F1, Marty Supreme and Sirat.

ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Dear Me/Diane Warren: Relentless (3)

4) Last Time (I Seen the Sun)/Sinners (NR)

5) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (5)

Others: The Girl in the Bubble/Wicked: For Good, Dream as One/Avatar: fire and Ash.. 

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

SAG announced their nominees for "The Actor" awards.  Here's the breakdown of films from TFF #52 and their nominations:

Hamnet (3): Best Cast, Best Female Lead (Buckley), Best Male Supporting (Mescal).

Frankenstein: (3) Best Cast, Best Supporting Male Actor (Elordi), Stunt Ensemble.

Bugonia: (2) Best Female Actor (Stone), Best Male Actor (Plemons).

Blue Moon (1): Best male Actor (Hawke).

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (1): Best Female Actor (Byrne).

Here are all the nominees from SAG/Aftra.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD AND TFF #52

TFF #52 films nominated for Art Directors Guild Awards earlier this week:

Frankenstein: Period Feature Film

Hamnet: Period Feature Film

Bugonia: Contemporary Feature Film

The ADG serves as a precursor for the Best Production Design Oscar.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Updated Predictions for Best Picture, Direction and Lead Acting / Visitations: Sentimental Value and Pillion

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATES PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND LEAD ACTING

Here's the fifth set of predictions for the four major categories.  TFF #52 predicted nominees are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) Hamnet (2)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) It Was Just an Accident (7)

8) Train Dreams (10)

9) Wicked: For Good (9)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: The Secret Agent, Avatar: Fire and Ice, and F1.

 

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein, Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme and Kleber Mendanca Filho/The Secret Agent.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (NR)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

5) Chase Infiniti/OBAA (NR)

Others: Cynthia Erivo/Wicked: For Good, Amanda Seyfreid/The Testament of Ann Lee and Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue.

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/OBAA (2)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (4)

Others: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), George Clooney/Jay Kelly and  Jesse Plemons/Bugonia.

This set of predictions suggests that five TFF #52 films will be nominated for Best Picture which would be an all time record for films from TFF.

VISITATIONS

 

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential.

Henry Melling for Pillion from Gold Derby.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Predix for the Final Five Feature Categories . The Deluge Begins: New York Film Critics Circle, Gotham Awards, National Board of Review

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: FIRST PREDIX FOR FINAL FIVE FEATURE CATEGORIES

Today we add final five feature categories with initial predictions for Production Design, Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound and Visual Effects.  All TFF #52 films are in Bold.    Here they are:

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Hamnet

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Sinners

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme.

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked: For Good

2) Frankenstein

3) Sinners

4) Hamnet

5) Kiss of the Spiderwoman

Others: One Battle After Another, Hedda and Marty Supreme.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Wicked: For Good

3) The Smashing Machine

4) Sinners

5) Weapons

Others: 28 Years Later, Bugonia and One Battle After Another.

SOUND DESIGN

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) Wicked: For Good

4) One Battle After Another

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

Others: Frankenstein, Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere..

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Wicked: For Good

4) Superman

5) Frankenstein

Others: Sinners, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning and The Fantastic Four.

Sooo...at this point, if the nominations were announced tomorrow, MTFB is currently predicting the following :

Hamnet (11): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design and Costumes.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Two in Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor Original Screenplay, and International Feature.

Frankenstein (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

It Was Just an Accident (4): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay and International Feature.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (2): Best Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Actor and International Feature.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor.

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

and from TFF #51: Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.

That's 10 TFF films nominated and a total of  40 nominations.

THE DELUGE BEGINS

Pre-nomination Oscar precursors bean to weigh in with force the past few days.  TFF films were faring moderately well.

New York Film Critics Circle: TFF films awarded were:

Best Direction: Jafar Pahani/It Was Just an Accident.

Best International Film: The Secret Agent.

Best actress: Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Actor: Walter Moura/The Secret Agent.

The Gotham Awards and TFF films:

Best Direction: Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident

Best International Feature: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Original Screenplay: It Was Just an Accident.

Pillion: Best Adapted Screenplay.

National Board of Review:

Best Actress: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You.

Best Supporting Actress: Inga Idsbotter Lileaas/Sentimental Value.

Best International Film: It Was Just an Accident.

Best Documentary: Cover-Up.

 From NBR's Top Films list: Frankenstein, Jay Kelly.

From NBR's Top Five International Films: The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value.

From NBR's Top Ten Independent Films: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, The Mastermind, Urchin.

The complete NBR list is here.

Finally, The Golden Globe nominations will be announced on Monday.  I'll have that then.

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MTFB Oscar Predictions: Screenplays / TFF #52 Has 24 Gotham Award Nominations / New Trailer for Sentimental Value / Visitations: Bugonia and Ballad of a Small Player

 MTFB OSCAR PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am concluding my first wave of Oscar predictions for this year with the focus on the Screenplay categories.  All contenders from TFF #52 films are listed in Bold.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) Jay Kelly

5) It Was Just an Accident

Others: A House of Dynamite, The Secret Agent and Weapons.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4) Bugonia

5) Train Dreams

Others: No Other Choice, Frankenstein and Song Sung Blue.

Currently, if all of MTFB's current predictions came true in the Big Eight categories, 10 TFF #52 films would receive 21 nominations with another 12 nominations possible.  Here's that breakdown by film:

Sentimental Value (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal) and Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelley (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler) and Original Screenplay.  Three other possibilities: Direction, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actor (Crudup).

It Was Just an Accident (3): Best Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Picture, Best Actor (Moura).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Adapted Screenplay.  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Actor (Plemons)

Springsteen: Deliver me from Nowhere (1): Best Actor (White).  Two other possibilities: Best Picture and Supporting Actor (Strong).

Other films with Oscar possibilities:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

Frankenstein: Adapted Screenplay.

I'll start the first round of updating predictions with next Monday's post.

TFF #52 HAS 24 GOTHAM AWARDS NOMINATIONS

Here's how Gotham Awards nominations went for TFF #52 films.  The big surprise was that If I Had Legs I'd Kick You had the biggest footprint among all 13 TFF #52 films to get a nomination.  TFF #52 films had a combines 24 nominations:

If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (4): Best Feature, Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (Byrne), Original Screenplay.

It was Just an Accident (3): Best International Feature, Direction, Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (2): Best Feature, Outstanding Lead Performance (Buckley).

Sentimental Value (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Lilleaas), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard).

The Mastermind (2): Best Direction, Outstanding Lead Performance (O'Connor).

Blue Moon (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Hawke), Outstanding Supporting Performance (Scott).

The Secret Agent (2): Outstanding Lead Performance (Moura), Original Screenplay.

Pillion (2): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Skarsgard), Adapted Screenplay.

Bugonia (1): Best Feature

Nouvelle Vague (1): Best International Feature.

Frankenstein (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Elordi).

Jay Kelly (1): Outstanding Supporting Performance (Sandler).

Urchin (1): Breakthrough Direction.

NEW TRAILER FOR SENTIMENTAL VALUE

VISITATIONS: BUGONIA AND BALLAD OF A SMALL PLAYER

Bugonia: Writer Will Tracy on Bugonia from Awards Radar: 

https://awardsradar.com/2025/10/29/interview-writer-will-tracy-chats-about-working-with-yorgos-lanthimos-and-adapting-bugonia/

Battle of a Small Player:

Colin Farrell and Fila Chen for Ballad of a Small Player from Next Best Picture:

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4f4b0HAG9Q&t=2s

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Next Best Picture / Trailers: Bugonia, PiIlion and If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

 CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: NEXT BEST PICTURE

With the New York Film Festival comes to a conclusion this weekend, we continue our series of check-ins with a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Neglia just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's the films he currently predicts will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

6) Jay Kelly

7) It Was Just an Accident

8) Song Sung Blue

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Matt has a record tying four TFF films predicted to be nominated for Best Picture.

Here is the link to Next Best Picture's Oscar Predictions.

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions from the accumulated predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR) and Next Best Picture (NBP) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Sentimental Value (6): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP

Jay Kelly (5): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (4): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V, NBP

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

TRAILERS FROM BUGONIA, PILLION AND IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

From YouTube:

BUGONIA

PILLION

IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com