Oscar 2026 and TFF

OSCAR 2026 AND TFF

Just a brief TFF check this morning post-Oscar.

TELLURIDE FILMS EARN SEVEN OSCARS

Guillermo Del Toro's was the most honored film that played Telluride last Labor Day with three wins last night: Best Production Design, Best Makeup/Hair Design and Best Costume design.

Four other TFF films won single Oscars:

Hamnet: Best Actress-Jesse Buckley

Sentimental Value (Norway): Best International Feature

All the Empty Rooms: Best Documentary Short

Two People Exchanging Saliva: Best Live Action Short (in a tie, unbelievably, with The Singers)

OVERALL

One Battle After Another was the big winner of the evening with six Oscars: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Sean Penn) Adapted Screenplay, Editing and Casting.

Sinners was next with four wins: Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Frankenstein with three...listed above

K-pop Demon Hunters with two: Best Animated Feature, Original Song

Single wins for:

Hamnet, Sentimental Value, All the Empty Rooms and Two People Exchanging Saliva listed above.  And...

Weapons: Best Supporting Actress; Amy Madigan

Mr. Nobody Against Putin: Best Documentary Feature

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Best Visual Effects

F1: Sound

The Singers: Best Live Action Short (tie)

AND THE BLOG...

2026 might have been my best year for predicting ever. 20.5 (that's how I'm counting the Live Action tie) out of 24 categories for a 85.4% accuracy rate.  I missed Best Casting, Documentary Feature and Cinematography.  And in each of those three categories, I had the winner listed as the "Could Be".

In as far as where I would have ended up with regard to comparison with Gold Derby's Experts... Well, they counted an answer of  either Two People or The Singers as fully correct.  Using that same metric I would have tied their experts for the top spot.  They counted those as 87.5% accurate.  Had I been listed I would have tied with Mark Johnson (Awards Watch and The Contending), Tomris Laffly (Freelance), Gregory Ellwood (The Playist), Scott Feinberg (The Hollywood Reporter) and Pete Hammond (Deadline).

Here's the link to The Gold Derby results.

Again, for the third year...Gold Derby...I'm awaiting my invitation to join your crew of experts for next year.

Now...onto puzzling out the 2026 version of Telluride.  For those who are curious, for whatever reasons, I am planning to be in The Ride for the festival again this year.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Oscar Sunday: MTFB Final Predictions

OSCAR SUNDAY: MTFB FINAL PREDICTIONS

Here we are hours away from the opening of the envelopes as Oscar season 2025-26 comes to an end tonight.  Here are the final predictions from MTFB.  Good luck in your Oscar pool!  TFF films are in Bold.

ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Girl who Cried Pearls

Could be: Butterfly

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Could be: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of of Brent Renaud

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner:  Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could Be: The Singers

VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could be: Sinners

SOUND

Winner: F1

Could be: Sinners

MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Frankenstein

Could be: Sinners

EDITING

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: F1

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

ORIGNAL SONG

Winner: Golden/K-Pop Demond Hunters

Could be: I Lied to You/Sinners

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: Sentimental Value

Could be: The Secret Agent

UPSET SPECIAL: The Secret Agent

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winners; The Perfect Neighbor

Could be: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Could be: Zootopia 2

BEST CASTING

Winner: Sinners

Could be: One Battle After Another

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Hamnet

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Sinners

Could be: Sentimental Value or It Was Just and Accident

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Could be: Delroy Lindo/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Literally anyone nominated could win!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Could be: Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another or Wunmi Mosaku/Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Any one of these three could be the winner.

BEST  ACTOR

Winner: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Could be: Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

UPSET SPECIAL: Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Could be: Rose Byrne/If I had Legs I'd Kick You

BEST DIRECTION:

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

Could Be: Ryan Coogler/Sinners

BEST PICTURE

Winner: One Battle After Another

Could be: Sinners

UPSET SPECIAL: Hamnet

Predicted TFF Oscar Winners: Total: 7.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costume Design and  Makeup/Hair

Hamnet (1): Best Actress (Buckley)

International Feature (1): Sentimental Value

Documentary Short (1): All the Empty Rooms

Live Action Short (1): Two People Exchanging Saliva

MTFB will have a look at the results of tonight's Oscar ceremony tomorrow in the regular post.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Seven Craft Categories / Predictions for Shorts Categories

Well, better a day late than never.  Here's what would have been yesterday's post if I weren't on the road.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SEVEN CRAFT CATEGORIES

TFF films indicated in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) One Battle After Another (2)

2) Sinners (1)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) F1 (3)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

PREDICITONS FOR SHORTS CATEGORIES

ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2) Butterfly

2) Retirement Plan

4) The Three Sisters 

5) Forevergreen

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) All the Empty Rooms

2) Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3) The Devil Is Busy

4) Children No More: Were and Gone

5) Perfectly a Strangeness

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Two People Exchanging Saliva

2) The Singers

3) A Friend of Dorothy

4) Butcher's Stain

5) Jane Austen's Period Drama

This and That: Cinematography and editing are up in the air.  If MTFB's predictions are correct TFF films win two of the three shorts categories.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Next to Last Predix for Oscar's Middle Six / Visitations: Jesse Buckley, Ethan Hawke and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: NEXT TO LAST PREDIX FOR OSCARS MIDDLE SIX

The latest predictions from MTFB for Casting, International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Marty Supreme (3)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Arco (4)

4) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (5)

3) The Alabama Solution (2)

4) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

5) Cutting Through Rocks (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Frankenstein (4)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Huge movement for Mr. Nobody Against Putin.  Small adjustments in casting, Animated Feature and Original Song.

VISITATIONS

Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fwxuEWxSpI

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/jessie-buckley-why-hamnet-isnt-grief-porn-1236564879/

Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon from Variety.

https://variety.com/2025/film/awards/ethan-hawke-blue-moon-linklater-before-movie-1236551849/

Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value from Next Best Picture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQpi055nXVQ

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: Penultimate Predix for the Big Eight Categories/ PGA and The Sag/Aftra Awards / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Visitations: Trier and Herzog

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PENULTIMATE PREDIX FOR THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Train Dreams (9)

9) Bugonia (8)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (4)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (4)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

3) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

3) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

4) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

5) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and That:

*Supporting Actor is all over the place now.  

*Supporting Actress is also very unsettled. 

*Best Picture and Actor are also a bit unsettled as we move into the last couple of weeks prior to Oscar night on Mar. 15.  *

Look out for Wagner Moura in the Best Actor race.

PGA AND THE "ACTOR" AWARDS

One Battle After Another won the Producers' Guild top prize on Saturday night seemingly sealing it for the Best Picture Oscar.  Meanwhile at the SAG/Aftra's Actor Awards on Sunday night:

Ensemble: Sinners

Female Lead: Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

Male Lead: Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

Female Supporting: Amy Madigan/Weapons

Male Supporting: Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

Stunt Ensemble: Mission Impossible: The Fina Reckoning

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

VISITATIONS

Director Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value from THR's Awards Chatter Podcast.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/awards-chatter-pod-joachim-trier-sentimental-value-1236517803/

Werner Herzog for Ghost Elephants from The Film Stage.

https://thefilmstage.com/werner-herzog-on-dreams-defeats-ghost-elephants-and-why-hes-not-a-workaholic/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Predix: Second Wave for Seven Remaining Categories / Hamlet Trailer / Visitations: Jesse Buckley and Nina Gold

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: SECOND WAVE FOR SEVEN REMAINING CATEGORIES 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) F1 (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Sentimental Value (5)

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) One Battle After Another (5)

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Marty Supreme (4)

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash (5)

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) The Smashing Machine (3)

4) Kokuho (5)

5) The Ugly Stepsisters (4) 

SOUND

1) F1 (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) One Battle After Another (3)

4) Sirat (5)

5) Frankenstein (4)

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash (1)

2) Sinners (3)

3) F1 (2)

4) The Lost Bus (4)

5) Jurassic World Rebirth (5)

This and That:  Cinematography and Editing have tightened considerably with Cinematography now the biggest toss-up.  Minor movement also in Makeup/Hair, Sound and Visual Effects.

HAMLET TRAILER

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mv2iYGYSUtY

VSITATIONS

Jesse Buckley for Hamnet from The Hollywood Reporters' Awards Chatter Podcast.

Casting Director Nina Gold for Hamnet from The Playlist.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Predix: Round Two of the Middle Six Categories / TFF #52 and BAFTA

MTFB OSCAR PREDIX: ROUND TWO OF THE MIDDLE SIX CATEGORIES

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Hamnet (4)

5) The Secret Agent (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value (1)

2) The Secret Agent (2)

3) It Was Just an Accident (3)

4) Sirat (4)

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) Zootopia 2 (2)

3) Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (4)

4) Arco (3)

5) Elio (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor (1)

2) The Alabama Solution (2)

3) Come See Me in the Good Light (3)

4) Cutting Through Rocks (5)

5) Mr. Nobody Against Putin (4)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners (1)

2) One Battle After Another (2)

3) Hamnet (4)

4) Frankenstein (3)

5) Bugonia (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters (1)

2) I Lied to You/Sinners (2)

3) Train Dreams/Train Dreams (4)

4) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless (3)

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi (5)

This and That: Small movements in Documentary, Score and Song in an other wise static set of six categories.

TFF #52 AND BAFTA

TFF #52 films nabbed six BAFTA  (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) Awards yesterday led by Guillermo Del Toro's  Frankenstein with three wins in craft categories: Productions Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  Chloe Zhao's Hamnet made a bit of a splash with two wins: Best Actress for Jesse Buckley as well as Outstanding British Film.  Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value won the BAFTA for Best Film Not in the English Language.

Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another led all films with six wins: Best Film, Direction, Supporting Actor (Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography and Editing. OBAA now seems virtually unbeatable for the Oscar for Best Picture.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Update: the Big Eight's Second Round / Visitations: Hamnet and Sentimental Value

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE:THE BIG EIGHT'S SECOND ROUND

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Sinners (2)

3) Hamnet (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Frankenstein (6)

7) The Secret Agent (7)

8) Bugonia (8)

9) Train Dreams (9)

10) F1 (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (2)

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme (5)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You (2)

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value (3)

4) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue (5)

5) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (1)

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent (4)

4) Michael B. Jordan/Sinneres (3)

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons (2)

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners (3)

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein (2)

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another (3)

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners (4)

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) It Was Just an Accident (4)

5) Blue Moon (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Train Dreams (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Frankenstein (5)

This and that: Two minor moves in the Acting categories mark the only changes in these categories since their last posting on Feb. 9th.  Kate Hudson and Wagner Moura both move a spot in the Best Lead categories.  Otherwise the status quo remains everywhere else.

VISITATIONS

HAMNET:

Chloe Zhao from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao and Sam Mendes from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/sam-mendes-chloe-zhao-emotional-cost-directing-hamnet-1236664653/

Jesse Buckley from Deadline.

https://deadline.com/2026/02/jessie-buckley-hamnet-paul-mescal-interview-1236719350/

SENTIMENTAL VALUE:

Stellan Skarsgard from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/stellan-skarsgard-career-interview-1235179293/

Stellan Skarsgard from Awards Radar

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/18/interview-stellan-skarsgard-discusses-his-career-and-first-oscar-nomination-for-sentimental-value/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-sentimental-value-bad-bunny-1236662568/

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Awards Radar.

https://awardsradar.com/2026/02/14/interview-inga-ibsdotter-lilleaas-discusses-sentimental-value-and-her-first-oscar-nomination/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Take: First Predix for the Seven Remaining Feature Categories /Is Hamnet Still Viable for Best Picture? / Visitations: Hamnet

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: FIRST PREDIX FOR THE SEVEN REMAINING FEATURE CATEGORIES

Over the couple of posts I have loading my picks to win the Oscar 14 Feature Categories. Today we get in the first predictions for the remaining seven features categories. TFF films are in Bold.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Train Dreams

4) Marty Supreme

5) Frankenstein

EDITING

1) One Battle After Another

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Sentimental Value

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) One Battle After Another

COSTUMES

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Marty Supreme

5) Avatar: Fire and Ash

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Frankenstein

2) Sinners

3) The Smashing Machine

4) The Ugly Stepsisters

5) Kokuho

SOUND

1) F1

2) Sinners

3) One Battle After Another

4) Sinners

5) Sirat

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: Fire and Ash

2) F1

3) Sinners

4) Marty Supreme

5) Jurassic World Rebirth

Thoughts:

TFF films win six Oscars if these initial predictions are 100% correct.

Frankenstein (3): Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

Sentimental Value (2): Supporting Actor and International Feature

Hamnet (1): Best Actress.

Overall MTFB currently has the rest of Oscar winners predicted as follows:

One Battle After Another (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Sinners (4): Casting, Original Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

K-Pop Demon Hunters (2): Best Animated Feature, Song.

And single wins for:

Marty Supreme: Best Actor.

The Perfect Neighbor: Best Documentary.

F1: Sound.

Avatar: Fire and Ash: Visual Effects.

Tightest categories: Best Picture, Casting, Cinematography, Editing and Costumes.

IS HAMNET STILL VIABLE FOR BEST PICTURE

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hamnet from Indiwire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

I'm an unabashed fan of Chloe Zhao's Hamnet.  While almost all of the big time Oscar pundits have the race down to a dogfight between Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners for the top prize on March 15th (and you can see above that I'm currently predicting OBAA), I still think there might be a path wherein Hamnet emerges with Best Pic on Oscar night. 

And, it turns out, I'm not entirely alone. There are others who have dared suggest that it could happen: Cory Woodruff/For the Win/USA Today.

Come along with me...here be reasons:

1) The Preferential Ballot... Where do voters for OBAA, Sinners and Sentimental Value put Hamnet on their ballots?  A lot of #2's from those films could boost Hamnet's chances.

2) Buckley will get Hamnet on the Board...She's maybe the biggest lock for any of the 24 awards on Oscar night.  And if Hamnet/Zhao/O'Farrell also grab the Best Adapted Screenplay...lookout.

3) BAFTA is coming...I can certainly see Hamnet overperforming on their Home Field.  And as has been pointed out in other quarters, the Brits are the largest "foreign" bloc in the Academy.  Say Hamnet wins Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Supporting Actor and  Adapted Screenplay on Feb. 22nd...just four days before the final Oscar voting starts...again, lookout.

4) Hamnet's won some serious stuff...Best Film/Drama at the Golden Globes, Toronto's Audience Award and, dare I say it...Hamnet topped MTFB's People's and Pros polls.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Chloe Zhao for Hamnet from The Wrap.

https://www.thewrap.com/industry-news/awards/chloe-zhao-hamnet-interview-cover-story/

Chloe Zhao with James Cameron for Hament from Indiewire.

https://www.indiewire.com/awards/consider-this/watch-james-cameron-chloe-zhao-talk-hamnet-1235179180/

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB Oscar Take: Second Wave Winners' Predictions / Ghost Elephants Trailer / Behind the Scenes: Hamnet

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SECOND WAVE OF WINNERS' PREDICTIONS

I started Monday with the first pass on predicting what films will win Oscars on March 15th.  Today we extend those predictions to six more categories: Casting, International Feature, Animated feature, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Original Song.  Here's where MTFB is right now for those categories.  As always TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CASTING

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Marty Supreme

4) Hamnet

5) The Secret Agent

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Sentimental Value

2) The Secret Agent

3) It Was Just an Accident

4) Sirat

5) The Voice of Hund Rajab

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) Zootopia 2

3) Arco

4) Little Amelie or the Character of rain

5) Elio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) The Perfect Neighbor

2) The Alabama Solution

3) Come See Me in the Good Light

4) Mr. Nobody Against Putin

5) Cutting Through Rocks

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Sinners

2) One Battle After Another

3) Frankenstein

4) Hamnet

5) Bugonia

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Golden/K-Pop Demon Hunters

2) I Lied to You/Sinners

3) Dear Me/Dianne Warren: Relentless

4) Train Dreams/Train Dreams

5) Sweet Dreams of Joy/Viva Vivaldi

Thoughts: It seems like the only semi-competitive category among these six is Best Casting.  All of the other five have the #1 film in great shape to pick up and Oscar on Mar. 15th.

Nest Monday, the remaining seven feature film categories.

    

GHOST ELEPHANTS TRAILER

Werner Herzog, as is often the case at Telluride, sprung a new documentary at TFF #52.  Ghost Elephants.  National Geographic dropped a trailer for the project on Tuesday.  Here it is from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YoOD-2Wn7ik

BEHIND THE SCENES: HAMNET

Here's a "Behind the Scenes' Look at Hamnet from Screen rant.

https://x.com/screenrant/status/2021253073956405645

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

MTFB First Predictions for Oscar Winners

MTFB FIRST PREDICTIONSFOR OSCAR WINNERS

Here is the first set of what I think is going to happen on the evening of March 15th at the 98th Oscar ceremony.  We'll start with the eight "above-the-line categories.  TFF films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another

2) Sinners

3) Hamnet

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) Frankenstein

7) The Secret Agent

8) Bugonia

9) Train Dreams

10) F1

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/One Battle After Another

2) Ryan Coogler/Sinners

3) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value

5) Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet

2) Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I's Kick You

3) Renate Reinsve/Sentimental Value

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia

5) Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue

BEST ACTOR

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme

2) Leonardo DiCaprio/One Battle After Another

3) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners

4) Wagner Moura/The Secret Agent

5) Ethan Hawke/Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another

2) Amy Madigan/Weapons

3) Wunmi Moskau/Sinners

4) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value

5) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value

2) Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein

3) Benicio Del Toro/One Battle After Another

4) Delroy Lindo/Sinners

5) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners

2) Sentimental Value

3) Marty Supreme

4) It Was Just an Accident

5) Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Train Dreams

4) Bugonia

5) Frankenstein

This and that:

***OBAA is projected to win three of these eight categories.  It's the only film projected to win more than one. among these eight categories.

***TFF has 23 nominees among these eight categories.  Jesse Buckley looks like the only TFF win.

***As a matter of fact, Best Actress goes to a TFF film unless Kate Hudson pulls an upset.

***The only close races here is Best Picture which is a tight race between OBAA and Sinners.  The rest of the seven other categories seem set right now.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Spying on Cannes / Visitations: Hamnet

SPYING ON CANNES 

We continue to be in the "in-between times".  That is to say between the Oscar nomination announcement and the actual Oscars...also the announcement of the lineup for the Cannes Film Festival.  So one of the things I like to do here at MTFB is try to keep an eye on the speculation about what will play at Cannes.  As frequent readers know, the overlap between films that screen in May in France and then Labor Day at Telluride is usually pronounced.

So, today we take our annual first look at the Cannes projection list from Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel.  Form that list of films, here are what seem to me the most likely TFF #53 players:

Jack of Spades/J. Coen

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Mintaul/Zvyagnistev

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Basics of Philosophy/Schrader

Untitled Mike Leigh/Leigh

On Land and Sea/Palmason

The Long Winter/Haigh

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

At the Sea/Mundruczo

  

And among possible French films at Cannes:

If Love Should Die/Hansen-Love

Moulin/Nemes

Ruimy's complete list is linked here.

VISITATIONS: HAMNET

Zhao, Spielberg and Mendes on Hamnet.

Behind the Scenes of Hamnet from Collider.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Looking to TFF #53 / BAFTA Nominees Announced / Behind the Scenes: Hamnet and H Is for Hawk / Visitations: The Secret Agent

 LOOKING TO TFF #53

Every year about this time MTFB moves into a transition phase as Oscar season closes in on completion (with nominees announced and Oscar winners set to be announced in about six weeks).  We begin to cast our eyes toward Labor Day weekend and what films may flicker to life in the San Juan mountains of Southwest Colorado.

One way to begin that transition is to look at lists of films named to "most anticipated" lists.  We start that today with The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated Films of 2026.  I have parsed the list and have come up with 16 titles that seem most possible for TFF #53.  Here those are in the order that The film Stage has ranked them (with director's name included in parentheses):

100) Digger (Inarritu)

78) At the Sea (Mundruczo)

71) Artificial (Guadagnino)

53) Ink (Boyle)

48) Untitled Eisenberg (Eisenberg)

42) Bucking Fastard (Herzog)

36) Parallel Tales (Farhadi)

33) Butterfly (Bagalov)

31) The Unknown (Haradi)

25) Jack of Spades (J. Coen)

15) Ancient History (Baker)

13) A Long Winter (Haigh)

7) Paper Tiger (Gray)

6) Untitled Mike Leigh (Leigh)

2) The Way of the Wind (Malick)

Historically 6-8 of these films will actually make it to Telluride.  Last year's stab at this yielded six films hat made it to TFF #52.  The year before...also six.

The complete listing from The Film Stage is linked here.

BAFTA NOMINEES ANNOUNCED

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts named its nominees for film excellence this week.  TFF films actually earned more BAFTA noms than Oscar noms with 43.  Here's how TFF #52 films did:

Hamnet (11): Best Film, Direction, Best British Film, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Supporting Actress (Watson), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.

Sentimental Value (8): Best Film, Direction, Film Not in the English Language, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay and Casting.

Frankenstein (8): Best Supporting Actor (Elordi), Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Special Visual Effects, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Score.

Bugonia (5): Best Direction, Actor (Plemons), Actress (Stone), Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Pillion (3): Outstanding British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Best British Debut.

The Secret Agent (2): Best Film Not in the English Language, Original Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Blue Moon: Best Actor (Hawke).

If I had Legs I'd Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

H Is for Hawk: Outstanding British Film.

It Was Just an Accident: Best Film Not in the English Language.

Cover-Up: Best Documentary.

Apocalypse in the Tropics: Best Documentary.

The complete list of BAFTA nominees is linked here.

BEHIND THE SCENES

*HAMNET

https://x.com/hamnetmovie/status/2015133832140501226?s=20

*H IS FOR HAWK

https://x.com/roadsidetweets/status/2014763864575844662?s=20

VISITATIONS: THE SECRET AGENT

Director Kleber Mendonca Filho for The Secret Agent from The Contending.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com

Oscar Odds and Ends / Trailer for Tuner / Visitations: Sentimental Value

OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

Now that we have Oscar nominees, here are some tidbits about what did and didn't happen:

*MTFB goes 95/125 in predicting the nominees.  That's a 76% accuracy rate and slightly below my average percentage for accuracy.

*By comparison my accuracy would have tied me for ninth among Gold Deby's 45 Experts and second among their editors.  Not as good as last year, but still not bad...again Gold Derby, waiting on my invitation to be on the panel next year.

*Best categories (where I got all the nominees correct) were: Adapted Screenplay and Animated Feature.  Of categories where I missed one nominee, four had the fifth nominee listed as the first "other" possibility: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and International Feature.

*Worst category for me was Animated Short where I went an abysmal one out of five.  As a matter of fact the "Shorts" categories again were the biggest boondoggle to my prediction success as I only got seven right of the possible 15 in those three categories.  Leaving them out I was at 80% accuracy for the feature categories.

*Biggest surprise and disappointment was Paul Mescal missing for Supporting Actor in Hamnet.  I would have also liked to have seen Oscar Isaac in Best Actor and Guillermo Del Toro for Best Direction for Frankenstein.  A Supporting Actor nomination for Andrew Scott in Blue Moon would have been nice too.

*TFF's five Oscar Best Picture nominees (again a TFF record for number of films that played the fest and then were nominated for Best Picture) and where they landed on MTFB's People's, Pros and Composite polls:

Hamnet: Pros #1, Peeps #1, Composite #1

Sentimental Value: Pros #2, Peeps #3, Composite #2

Bugonia: Pros #9, Peeps #2, Composite #4

Frankenstein:  Pros #12, Peeps #9, Composite #10

The Secret Agent didn't have enough views from either the Pros or the People to qualify for the polls.

 

*CORRECTION...An eagle-eyed reader of the blog was kind enough to point out that TFF #51 short Two People Exchanging Saliva was a nominee for Best Live Action Short. That moves to 10 the number of TFF films nominated for a total of 40 nominations.

TRAILER FOR TUNER

Here's a new trailer for Tuner.  The film premiered at Telluride on Aug. 30th, 2025.  Here's its official trailer from Black Bear via YouTube:

VISITATIONS: SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Writer-Director Joachim Trier from Pop Culture Confidential.

Oscar nominee Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Pop Culture Confidential.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com