Oscar Odds and Ends / Trailer for Tuner / Visitations: Sentimental Value

OSCAR ODDS AND ENDS

Now that we have Oscar nominees, here are some tidbits about what did and didn't happen:

*MTFB goes 95/125 in predicting the nominees.  That's a 76% accuracy rate and slightly below my average percentage for accuracy.

*By comparison my accuracy would have tied me for ninth among Gold Deby's 45 Experts and second among their editors.  Not as good as last year, but still not bad...again Gold Derby, waiting on my invitation to be on the panel next year.

*Best categories (where I got all the nominees correct) were: Adapted Screenplay and Animated Feature.  Of categories where I missed one nominee, four had the fifth nominee listed as the first "other" possibility: Best Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and International Feature.

*Worst category for me was Animated Short where I went an abysmal one out of five.  As a matter of fact the "Shorts" categories again were the biggest boondoggle to my prediction success as I only got seven right of the possible 15 in those three categories.  Leaving them out I was at 80% accuracy for the feature categories.

*Biggest surprise and disappointment was Paul Mescal missing for Supporting Actor in Hamnet.  I would have also liked to have seen Oscar Isaac in Best Actor and Guillermo Del Toro for Best Direction for Frankenstein.  A Supporting Actor nomination for Andrew Scott in Blue Moon would have been nice too.

*TFF's five Oscar Best Picture nominees (again a TFF record for number of films that played the fest and then were nominated for Best Picture) and where they landed on MTFB's People's, Pros and Composite polls:

Hamnet: Pros #1, Peeps #1, Composite #1

Sentimental Value: Pros #2, Peeps #3, Composite #2

Bugonia: Pros #9, Peeps #2, Composite #4

Frankenstein:  Pros #12, Peeps #9, Composite #10

The Secret Agent didn't have enough views from either the Pros or the People to qualify for the polls.

 

*CORRECTION...An eagle-eyed reader of the blog was kind enough to point out that TFF #51 short Two People Exchanging Saliva was a nominee for Best Live Action Short. That moves to 10 the number of TFF films nominated for a total of 40 nominations.

TRAILER FOR TUNER

Here's a new trailer for Tuner.  The film premiered at Telluride on Aug. 30th, 2025.  Here's its official trailer from Black Bear via YouTube:

VISITATIONS: SENTIMENTAL VALUE

Writer-Director Joachim Trier from Pop Culture Confidential.

Oscar nominee Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas from Pop Culture Confidential.

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The Composite Telluride / Visitations: Paul Mescal

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE

We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.  This year 11 films had enough responses from both groups to make this list.  There are three films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other.  Those were Nouvelle Vague which didn't make the People's list and If I Had Legs I'd Kick you as well as A Private Life which weren't seen by enough Pros.

So, here's the Composite.  Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.

1) Hamnet 9.19 [1-1]

2) Sentimental Value 8.79 [2-3]

3) It Was Just an Accident 8.58 [3-4]

4) Bugonia 7.85 [9-2]

5) Jay Kelly 7.79 [4-8]

6) The History of Sound 7.67 [5-7]

7) [TIE] Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 7.30 [8-6]

7) [TIE] Tuner  7.30 [10-5]

9) Blue Moon 7.12 [7-10]

10) Frankenstein 6.64 [12-9]

11) Ballad of a Small Player 6.11 [11-13]

After these additions the All Time Composite Top Ten looks like this:

1) (TIE) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 (Won Best Picture)

1) (TIE) Argo (9.25) 2012 (Won Best Picture)

3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)

4) (TIE) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)

4) (TIE) Hamnet (9.19) 2025 (???)

6) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)

7) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)

8) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012

9) Poor Things (9.04) 2023 (Nominated Best Picture)

10) (TIE) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013

10) (TIE) Anora (8.97) 2024 (Won Best Picture)

So Chloe Zhao's Hamnet lands tied with Moonlight for the fourth best Composite score of all time.

An expanded  list of The Composite and updated All Time ratings for all three categories (Pros, Peeps and Composite) can be found on the "Film Ratings from Past Fests" page.  The tab for that is above.

One last thing.  The top 10 films that were most viewed as a percentage of the total number of people who rated films for The People's Telluride.

1) Hamnet 86%

2) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere 78%

3) Sentimental Value 67%

3) Bugonia 67%

5) Jay Kelly 66%rin

6) Blue Moon 64%

7) Tuner 63%

8) Ballad of a Small Player 58%

9) Frankenstein 56%

10) If I Had Legs I'd Kick You 44%

VISITATIONS: PAUL MESCAL

Paul Mescal on Hamnet and The History of Sound from The Rolling Stone.

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Ten Bets (Plus) #9 for TFF #52 / New York Spotlight Clues, Confusions and Confirmations / Marty Supreme Drama / First Photo of Hamnet

TEN BETS (PLUS) #9 FOR TFF #52

New info earlier this week from announcements coming from the New York Film Fest and the Toronto International Film Festival inform this week's Ten Bets.  New York's Spotlight section announcements seem to confirm that La Grazia and Pillion are headed to Telluride.  

What will NOT be playing Telluride as it will World Premiere at New York id the return of Daniel Day-Lewis to film acting in Anemone.

Confusion was created when New York also listed Blue Moon and A Private Life as "New York" premieres as opposed to a "U.S." premiere designation.  Much like Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) last week, that designation puts those film at odds with their "North American" premiere designations from TIFF.  Both designations can't be true.  Consequently I'll be putting both A Private Life as well as Blue Moon back on the list.

Toronto announced half a dozen new films and dropped their schedule on Tuesday.  The six films didn't reveal any Telluride possibilities but did confirm that No Other Choice and The Wizard of the Kremlin are not T-ride players. 

By way of recap, here's last week's Ten Bets (Plus):

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

And this week's goes like this:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

16) Pillion

17) La Grazia

18) Resurrection

19) Nuestra Tierra

20) Blue Moon

Other possibilities: A Private Life, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Die My Love, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Bucking Fastard, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

NEW YORK SPOTLIGHT CLUES AND CONFUSIONS 

Last Tuesday the New York Film Festival revealed their Spotlight section films and those reveals and their premiere designations provide us Telluride watchers with some clues.

First, the bad news... the Daniel Day-Lewis coming-out-of-acting-retirement film Anemone was announced as a NYFF World premiere...meaning no Telluride.

Some good news... from their designations as New York premieres it looks like Pillion and La Grazia are almost certainly Telluride bound.  La Grazia is opening Venice so has time to get to Telluride.

Some confusion:  Blue Moon and A Private Life were also listed as New York premieres which is a curious designation as those two films were announced by Toronto as Nort American premieres.  Both things cannot be true.  If the Toronto designation is correct then no Telluride for either film.  If the New York designation is trye that would signify a Telluride play as NYFF would almost assuredly have designated them as U.S. premieres if they were not playing Telluride.  That's illustrated by the U.S. premiere designation for Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk.  It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.  For now, I'm back to cautious optimism about both films for Labor Day.

Some confirmations... Nouvelle Vague announced as a NY preem confirms for Telluride.

A couple of other notes...documentaries about Martin Scorsese and Anne Meara and Jerry Stiller are labelled World premieres so no Telluride for either.  I thought the Scorsese doc was a real possibility.

Here is the complete announcement from the New York Fest.

MARTY SUPREME DRAMA

Early in the week there was quite a bit of scuttlebutt that Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme might be showing up at a "fall fest" after all.  There was a good deal of speculation about what fest that might be.  With Toronto and New York purportedly done announcing films the likely culprits would be Telluride, New York or AFI.

Now, I was really hoping that might mean a landing at TFF #52 but replying to a query on X I expressed that it was my belief that the odds were 3-1 in New York's favor.  That estimate seems to have been born out.  According to World of Reel on Wednesday, if it is to happen it will be at NYFF.

FIRST PHOTO FROM HAMNET

We're 99% sure Chloe Zhao's Hamnet will bow at TFF #52.  Tuesday we got our first official image from the film that stars Paul Mescal and Jesse Buckley.  Here that is:

The IMDb description for Hamnet:

The story of Agnes - the wife of William Shakespeare - as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, Hamnet. A human and heart-stopping story as the backdrop to the creation of Shakespeare's most famous play, Hamlet.

Hamnet is set for a limited opening on Nov. 27th.

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Ten Bets (Plus) #8 for TFF #52 / Venice Schedule Is Up / Jay Kelly Has a Teaser and Posters / First Looks at Nouvelle Vague

TEN BETS (PLUS) #8 FOR TFF #52

Lots of information flying around earlier this week from Toronto and New York allows us to clean up the Ten Bets as well as "possibilities".  By way of review, here's last week's Ten Bets:

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.

Now, in light of the week's info...the new Ten Bets (Plus):

This week's new Ten Bets (Plus):

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach 

11) Bugonia/Lanthimos

12) The Mastermind/Reichardt

13) Cover-Up/Poitras

14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog

15) Hamlet/Karia

Other possibilities: Resurrection, Nuestra Tierra, The Young Mother's Home, The Drama, Pillion, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Megadoc, Train Dreams.

I was shocked that Blue Moon was announced by Toronto as a North American Premiere.  I would have bet actual money that it was going to be at Telluride.  I was almost as certain that The Love That Remains would also make it to TFF#52 but it was also announced as a TIFF North American premiere.

Here's the list of films that I had been T-ride watching which got nuked for TFF#52 by announcements earlier this week:

Blue Moon

The Love That Remains

Late Fame

Magellan

Mirrors #3

No Other Choice

Two Prosecutors

The President's Cake

Unidentified

Left-Handed Girl

Orphan

Orwell 2+2=5

Films that moved up the Ten Bets based on this week's information:

The Mastermind

Cover-Up

Hamlet

Resurrection

Landmarks (Nuestra Tierra) is up in the air.  New York says it's a NY Premiere.  Toronto says it has the North American premiere.  If New York is correct means probably Telluride.  If Toronto is correct...no Telluride.

VENICE SCHEDULE IS UP

Early this morning the official public schedule for the Venice Film Festival was posted.  The schedule appears to confirm that theses films are screening early enough to make it to Colorado:

La Grazia (Opening night film)

From 8/28

Ghost Elephants

Orphan

Bugonia

Jay Kelly

Megadoc

From 8/29

Cover-Up

After the Hunt

From earlier announcements from other fests we believe that Orphan and After the Hunt are off the table for Telluride.  

We're  also pretty sure that this helps signal that Bugonia, Jay Kelly and Cover-Up are headed to Telluride.

Ghost Elephants...that's Werner Herzog...making me think that it's in the bag for Telluride.  Megadoc?  I'm not so sure.  Also that could be complicated Francis Ford Coppola's health situation.

You can take a look at the full Venice schedule here.

JAY KELLY HAS A TEASER AND POSTERS

Maybe the hottest buzz for now is coming from Jay Kelly which we feel very confident is going to TFF #52.  Here's the teaser via YouTube:

and posters of George Clooney and Adam Sandler:

Ans some stills from a Vanity Fair "First Looks" article:

Jay Kelly opens on Nov. 14th.

FIRST LOOKS AT NOUVELLE VAGUE

Three stills from Rotten Tomatoes:

 

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Ten Bets #7 for TFF #52 / Is This Thing Off ? / Blue Moon Has a Trailer / The Secret Agent and Left-Handed Girl Get Dates

TEN BETS #7 FOR TFF #52

Four weeks from today we'll see the actual lineup for TFF #52.  Until then it's all speculation.  So, let's speculate.  But first, a recap of last week's Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Bugonia/Lanthimos

9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10) The History of Sound/Hermanus

Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.

With some new information over the last week, the new Ten Bets are so:

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach

Other possibilities: Bugonia, Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, The Drama, Pillion, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, At the Sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Train Dreams.

Jay Kelly moves into the Ten Bets on the strength of some reporting earlier in the week.  It bumps Bugonia.  New additions to the "Possibles" include: Pillion, The Drama, At the sea, Late Fame, A Magnificent Life, Mother Mary, Megadoc, No Other Choice, The wizard of the Kremlin and Train Dreams ( I know it played Sundance but maybe it'll be an exception like The Outrun last year).

IS THIS THING OFF?

It sure seems that way as the New York Film Festival announced yesterday that Bradley Cooper's Is This On? was announced as that fest's Closing Night film and will be a World Premiere which means it will not play Telluride or Toronto either for that matter.

It has been a film that I have had high hopes for vis-a-vis TFF #52 but, alas, Nope!

BLUE MOON HAS A TRAILER

Listed currently as a "Possibility" for TFF #52, Richard Linklater's Blue Moon is set for release  on Oct. 24th.  I've had Blue Moon in earlier iterations of the Ten Bets and still feel pretty good about its chances of making the lineup.

Anyway, Sony Pictures Classics released a trailer for the film on Tuesday.  here it is from YouTube:

I liked it.

THE SECRET AGENT AND LEFT-HANDED GIRL GET DATES

Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent has been dated for U.S. release.  Neon has set a New York roll out for Nov. 26th followed by release in L.A. on Dec. 5th.  The Secret Agent was a big winner at Cannes gaining awards for Best Director and Best Actor among the films in competition for the Palme d'Or.  

Its description at IMDb is as follows:

In 1977, a technology expert flees from a mysterious past and returns to his hometown of Recife in search of peace. He soon realizes that the city is far from being the refuge he seeks.

Meanwhile...

Netflix announced yesterday that Shih-Ching Tsou's Left-Handed Girl has been dated for a Nov. 14th theatrical release allowing it to meet Academy Awards requirements for Oscar consideration should it be submitted.  The film played as a part of Cannes Critics Week and had a healthy Cannes-ratings.org average of 7.74 (8th best overall of all films that played in various sections of Cannes).  The film also picked up the Semaine Distribution Prize.

The film was produced, co-written and edited by Oscar winner Sean Baker (who won Oscars for each of those jobs for Anora last year).

Its IMDb description:

A single mother and her two daughters relocate to Taipei to open a night market stall, each navigating the challenges of adapting to their new environment while striving to maintain family unity.

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Ten Bets #6 for TFF #52 / This Year's Barbera "Mystery" / The History of Sound Poster / Maybe Some TV?

TEN BETS #6 FOR TFF #52

Well, here we are.  We probably know some things with a reasonable degree of certainty at this poinmt after reveals from Toronto, Venice and New York.

After Toronto's Monday announcement we think this is true:

These seven films appear locked into Telluride:

Hamnet

Ballad of a Small Player

It Was Just an Accident

Nouvelle Vague

Sentimental Value

The Secret Agent

Tuner

These are film's from Venice that feel like they might play there and then come over for TFF #52:

La Grazia

Jay Kelly

The Wizard of the Kremlin

House of Dynamite

Bugoina

Orphan

Hand of Dante

Ghost Elephants

Cover-Up

I had After the Hunt on this list right up until yesterday when New York announced it as its Opening Night film as a North American Premiere...so  no Telluride.

Other films that seem gone from Telluride consideration:

Sirat

Frankenstein

Eleanor the Great

Other films that could still play Telluride:

Bugonia

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Blue Moon

The Young Mothers' Home

The History of Sound

The Love That Remains

Left-Handed Girl

Pressure

Die, My Love

The Mastermind

The American Revolution

Bucking Fastard

Last week's Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Bugonia/Lanthimos

5) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper

6) Blue Moon/Linklater

7) Sirat/Laxe

8) The Young Mothers' Home/Dardenne Brothers

9) The History of Sound/Hermanus

10) After the Hunt/Guadagnino

Other possibilities: The Ballad of a Small Player, The Love That Remains, The Secret Agent, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Frankenstein, Eleanor the Great,  Pressure, Die My Love, The Mastermind, The American Revolution.

This week's new Ten Bets:

1) Hamnet/Zhao

2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi

3) Sentimental Value/Trier

4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger

5) The Secret Agent/Filho

6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater

7) Tuner/Roher

8) Bugonia/Lanthimos

9) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10) The History of Sound/Hermanus

Other possibilities: Blue Moon, The Young Mother's Home, The Love That Remains, Jay Kelly, Left-Handed Girl, Die My Love, Anemone, Pressure, The American Revolution, Ghost Elephants, Bucking Fastard, La Grazia, A House of Dynamite, Orphan, Hand of Dante, Cover-Up.

Information that will further illuminate what could be at TFF #52:

*Waiting to hear from Toronto as they likely have other titles to add over the next few weeks.

*Waiting to see Venice's schedule.

*Waiting for the rest of New York's lineup.

All in all, I'm feeling pretty good about where this week's "Bets" are.

THIS YEAR'S BARBERA "MYSTERY"

Over the last couple of years Venice Film Fest chief Alberto Barbera has, unwittingly or not, let slip bits and pieces of information that have given away a couple of Telluride titles.  Tuesday as he was introducing the Venice lineup we referenced Josh Safdies' Marty Supreme saying that (it) "will screen in the autumn".

Now, we know that Marty Supreme is set for a Dec. 25th release which isn't "autumn".   Does that mean Barbera has, again revealed a Telluride play?  My guess is no.  I think New York seems more likely.  I;m not saying that the reference precludes Telluride but NYFF makes more sense as the film is set primarily in NYC and the "autumn" reference matches up with New York's Sept. 26-Oct. 13 time frame better than TFF just two days after the Venetian kickoff.

Here's a link to a video of Barbera's comment.

THE HISTORY OF SOUND POSTER

From distributor Mubi yesterday, a poster for Oliver Hermanus' The History of Sound, currently sitting at #10 on this week's Ten Bets. Word is that a trailer is coming today. I'll try to add that to this post before the end of the day should it be forthcoming. Here's the poster:

MAYBE SOME TV?

@Movielo10274449 posted on X yesterday the notion that Matthew Heineman's The Savant could play Telluride and it makes some sense.

Last year the fest programmed Apple TV+'s and Alfonso Cuaron's Disclaimer starring Cate Blanchett (currently Emmy nommed for the role) and Kevin Kline. The fest ran all seven of the series episodes.

Could this happen again this year with The Savant which is also from Apple+?

Maybe Jessica Chastain who stars in the series will be in town? Please...

You bet your buns! Heineman, as @Movielo10274449 points out has screened his last two projects at T-ride. 2022's Retrograde and 2023's fantastic American Symphony.

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