Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
AFI IS IN FULL SWING AND FEATURES FILMS FROM TFF#43
The American Film Institutes's Film Festival began late last week and will continue through the 17th. The fest is the last festival to feature premieres of films that could find their way into the Oscar conversation before we start to hear from critic's groups. Films such as Miss Sloane and Rules Don't Apply that have gotten a good deal of awards speculation will screen or have screened at AFI.
The National Board of Review announces their list of films in just over two weeks (Nov. 29) with the New York Critics announcing on Dec. 1 and LA critics on Dec. 4. AFI will announce their top films on Dec. 8. Golden Globe nominations are announced on Dec. 12 and Screen Actors Guild nominations are announced Dec. 14. The British Academy announces nominees on Jan. 10.
Oscar voters begin voting for nominees on Jan. 5 and that closes Jan. 13. Oscar nominees are announced Jan. 24.
Thanks to Sasha Stone's Awards Daily for the comprehensive calendar of awards dates. You can find that complete list here.
At any rate, Telluride 2016 films are a significant presence at this year's AFI fest: Included in the AFI schedule from TFF #43 are: La La Land, Bright Lights: Starring Debbie Reynolds, Fire at Sea, Toni Erdmann, Graduation, Neruda, Things to Come and Mifune: The Last Samurai.
Werner Herzog, not surprisingly premiered his Volcano Around the World documentary, Into the Inferno, at Telluride. Herzog's doc travels the globe and seeks to place volcanic natural phenomena into the contexts in which various cultures have interacted with them.
Additionally, here's the official trailer for the film:
Into the Inferno opened on Oct. 28 and is available to stream on Netflix.
OSCAR PUNDITS UPDATE
I've got a new FAC update coming for Thursday's post that will update the acting races but until then, here are the latest updated Oscar pics from two of the Oscar experts that are used for The FAC metric.
Sasha Stone's weekly update on Friday has TFF #43 films La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and Arrival as the top four films contending for Best Picture. She also has Sully at #9. Best Actor candidates include: Casey Affleck/Manchester and Tom Hanks/Sully. Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land, Amy Adams/Arrival. Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight and Lucas Hedges/Manchester. Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight and Michelle Williams/Manchester, Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land, Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester and Denis Villeneuve/Arrival. Check the link above for the rest of Stone's updated predictions.
The last look by The FAC for these two major categories was three weeks ago (Oct. 13) and, woo-boy, have the fortunes have changed for Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk. I noted a couple of weeks back as I was updating the screenplay categories that we were beginning to see the results of a less than stellar NYFF reception to the film as the script had dropped from 1st to fifth in the Adapted Screenplay category. As you'll see below, the fall is all but complete for the film that was at one time regarded as a real contender for multiple major awards.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
TFF #43 films are inBold. The film's previous position follows its title in parenthesis.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Fences (4)
4) Moonlight (5)
5) Lion (7)
6) Silence (6)
7) Jackie (8)
8) Arrival (9)
9) Loving (10)
10) Sully (11)
11) Hidden Figures (N/R)
12) (TIE) Hell or High Water (N/R), Live By Night (N/R), 20th Century Women (12)
Hot: La La Land, Lion
Stone COLD: Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
On the Cusp: A Monster Calls
Comment: La La Land couldn't move up any spots because it was previously at #1 but its stranglehold on the top spot has only strengthened on the past three weeks. Billy Lynn's Long Walk has gotten impossibly long regarding major Oscar nominations. It dropped from the #2 spot to a tie for 20th. I'm not sure I recall any more precipitous drop in the years The FAC has been in existence.
This note too: I'm getting the feeling that the biggest challenge to La La Land might well be Garth Davis' Lion. It seems to be picking up a lot of Audience Awards at various regional film fests.
BEST DIRECTOR
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester by the Sea (3)
3) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (5)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (4)
5) Denzel Washington/Fences (7)
6) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (8)
7) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (6)
8) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
9) Jeff Nichols/Loving (10)
10) Clint Eastwood/Sully (N/R)
Hot: Jenkins, Washington
Not: Lee
On the Cusp: Ben Affleck/Live by Night
Comment: Ang Lee also takes a hit in this category with the BLLHTW swoon.
NOMINATION NEWS
BIFA NOMS THREE TFF #43 FILMS
The British Independent Film Association announced the nominees for their superlatives earlier this week. Obviously the films that received the most attention were British. The leading film was Ken Loach's Palme d'Or winner I, Daniel Blake. Telluride 2016 films popped up in a big way in the Best International Film category with Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Toni Erdmann earning nominations in the category. The other two films nominated were Hunt for the Wilderpeople and Mustang. Find full coverage of the BIFA nominations here from BIFA itself as well as from Indiewire here.
LA LA LANDS MUSIC NOMS
Justin Hurwitz and his collaborators have been thrice nominated for music in Damien Chazelle's La La Land. Hurwitz was nominated by The Hollywood Music in Media awards for Original Score and two songs from the original musical were nominated for Best Original Song Audition and City of Stars which Hurwitz co-wrote with Benj Pasek and Justin Paul. La La Land led the pack with the three nominations. Additionally, Howard Britell was nominated for Score for Moonlight. Coverage of all of the nominations is here from Variety. CINEMAEYE NOMS FIRE AT SEA
And in other nomination news, Gianfranco Rosi's Fire at Sea which played Telluride and won the Golden Bear at this year's Berlin Film Fest was nominated for Best feature documentary by CinemaEye. Rosi was also nominated for outstanding documentary direction. The complete coverage of the CinemaEye nominations can be found here from The Wrap.
JEREMY RENNER IN ARRIVAL
Amy Adams has gotten the lion's share of attention for her leading role in Denis Villenueve's Arrival including serious Best Actress Oscar buzz (which may well have gotten a boost last week with the announcement that Viola Davis would be campaigned for a Supporting Actress nomination for Fences). Capably offering solid support for Adams is Jeremy Renner. Renner was profiled recently as the focus of this featurette at Collider.
VIEWS OF MANCHESTER The Playlist passed along a couple of clips from Kenneth Lonergan's Manchester by the Sea earlier this week including this 38 second clip that introduces one of the best acted scenes from any film this year. At this point, I am all about a nomination for Best Supporting Actress for Michelle Williams and the win. Casey Affleck is tremendous in the scene as well, but Williams...oh my. Here's the clip via YouTube:
THE FAC UPDATES SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAY CATEGORIES
Last Thursday I updated the four major categories as the New York Film Festival was drawing to a close. That fest has concluded and it's time to update the Supporting Acting and Screenplay categories and assess whether the screenings in New York shifted the landscape (they did...a bit).
Kris Tapley maybe summed it up best when he tweeted earlier this week:
Though Tapley doesn't mention the film by name, it seems pretty obvious that he's talking about Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk. And you'll see some of the effect of its NYFF reception as we go through the categories I'm updating today. So without further dithering...
Here's the latest FAC snapshot for four major Oscar categories that I originally posted back on Sept. 29th.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
The number in parenthesis is the position the film held three weeks ago.
TFF #43 films are inBold. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Naomie Harris/Moonlight (1) 2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea (2)
3) Nicole Kidman/Lion (3)
4)Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women (6)
5) Kristen Stewart/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (4)
6) Octavia Spencer/Hidden Figures (5)
7) Janelle Monae/Hidden Figures (NR)
8) Lupita N'yong'o/The Queen of Katwe (7)
9) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky (10)
10) Felicty Jones/A Monster Calls (8)
On the Cusp: Molly Shannon/Other People
Dropping Off: Margo Martindale/The Hollars
Hot: Gerwig and Monae.
Cold: N'yong'o
Comment: The NYFF Billy Lynn response doesn't seem to have hurt Stewart much (but wait until you get to Adapted Screenplay below). Gerwig definitely benefits from a strong positive NYFF response to 20th Century Women.
Harris and Williams seem like locks even this early in the scheme of things. Kidman is close to lock status as well.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Liam Neeson/Silence (1)
2) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins (2)
3) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water (6) 4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea (4)
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals (5)
6) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight (3)
7) Stephen Henderson/Fences (7) 8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This (8)
9) Peter Saarsgard/Jackie (9)
10) Steve Martin/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (10)
On the Cusp: Kevin Costner/Hidden Figures
No Drops
Hot: Bridges
Cold: Ali
Comment: Steve Martin also not affected by Billy Lynn's NYFF response...yet. I don't think anyone is a lock in this category just yet. The top six look like where the nominees will come from and are tightly bunched using The FAC metric but positions 7-9 are definitely possible.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Fences (2)
2) Silence (3)
3) Lion (4) 4) Arrival (5)
5) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (1)
6) Hidden Figures (6)
7) Love and Friendship (8)
8) Live by Night (10) 9) Sully (9)
10) Nocturnal Animals (7)
On the Cusp: Indignation
No Drops
Hot: ?????
Cold: Billy Lynn, Nocturnal Animals
Comment: Here's your first solid evidence that Oscar experts are factoring in the NYFF reactions to Billy Lynn as the film's screenplay drops a precipitous four spots. I fully expect that when check back into this category next time that Billy Lynn will have slid even further.
Fences, Silence and Lion are very, very tightly bunched.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea (1) 2) La La Land (2) 3) Moonlight (3)
4) 20th Century Women (6)
5) Loving (4)
6) Jackie (5)
7) Hell or High Water (7)
8) The Lobster (8)
9) Captain Fantastic (10)
10) Florence Foster Jenkins (9)
On the Cusp: Miss Sloane
No Drops
Hot: 20th Century Women
Cold: Nada
Comment: Another sign that 20th Century Women made some waves in New York evidenced by its rise in this category.
For now Manchester seems the only lock and has a sturdy lead over La La Land, which is near lock status.
If The FAC is 100% accurate then Telluride 2016 films will add the following:
Manchester by the Sea adds three nominations.
Moonlight adds two nominations with a possible third.
La La Land adds one nomination.
Arrival adds one nomination.
Sully adds a possible nomination.
Bleed for This adds a possible nomination.
If all goes according to plan, next Thursday's post will include an early look at Film Editing, Cinematography, Original Score and Original Song categories.
HERZOG'S INFERNO HAS A TRAILER
Werner Herzog's volcanic documentary, Into the Inferno, dropped a new trailer this week. Here it is from YouTube:
"THE NEXT BIG THING"?...MOONLIGHT'S BARRY JENKINS (SAYS INDIEWIRE... AND THEY'RE RIGHT)
One of the hottest titles critically since Telluride has been Barry Jenkins' Moonlight. The film has captivated film goers at every stop it has made along the way. It could well turn into one of the two or three best reviewed films of the fall season before it's all said and done. Currently the film has a 98 at both Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes.
Will that translate to Oscar success? The stories above and below seem to indicate that it probably will earn several nominations.
All of this has led Indiewire's Eric Kohn to proclaim that Jenkins is "the next big thing". I've been telling my students the same thing since I got back from the festival.
Now, as Moonlight gets ready tom open for general audiences (it opens tomorrow) a number of outlets are doing pieces about Jenkins and the film including the Indiewire article. Those are linked below:
At the start of this week we got Oscar nomination updates from two of the nine experts that I use for The FAC. Both Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Clayton Davis of Awards Watch posted new predictions in the wake of the conclusion of the New York Film Festival. Those very recent predictions are factored into the latest FAC listings above.
Feinberg is currently predicting the 21 feature categories with most categories divided into Frontrunners, Major Threats, Possibilities and Long Shots. I'm focusing on the Frontrunners and Major Possibilities here.
According to Feinberg, La La Land would land 13 nominations and is listed as a Major Threat for two others. The nominations would be: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Original Score, two for Original Song, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. The two other Major Threats are an additional Original Song possibility and also Best Costumes. My personal count has been at 12. I haven't been thinking about a nomination for Production Design.
Manchester by the Sea would grab six nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay. Feinberg also says it's a Major Threat for two other nominations: Film Editing and Original Score.
Moonlight would earn six nominations for Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Film Editing. It also is a Major Threat for nominations for Cinematography and Original Score.
Sully could two nominations for Best Picture, and Best Actor and is a Major Threat for five more: Director, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.
Feinberg says that Telluride documentary features with the best shot at a nomination are: The Eagle Huntress, The Ivory Game and Fire at Sea.
Best chances for Best Foreign Language Film from TFF #43 are Fire at Sea and Toni Erdmann. He lists Neruda as a Major Threat.
Feinberg has Arrival on the outside looking in with no listing stronger than a "Possibility".
Feinberg's Telluride tally would be 32 nominations with an additional 12 Major Threats.
Meanwhile, Clayton Davis at Awards Watch could not have a more different take on Denis Villenueve's Arrival.
Awards Watch currently has the Oscar race predicted as follows:
La La Land with 12 nominations: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costumes, Sound Editing and two for Best Song. AW also suggests that another three nominations are possible: Another for Best Song as well as Original Score and Sound Mixing.
Arrival rivals La La Land in Davis' estimation with ten predicted nominations: Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. Arrival also is listed with a "possible" nomination for Best Actress.
Manchester by the Sea would have four nominations: Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. It's also suggested as a possible nominee for Director, Supporting Actor and Film Editing.
Moonlight would be nominated for three Oscars: Best Picture, Supproting Actor and Original Screenplay. It has another couple of possibilities: Director and Original Screenplay.
Sully would have a single nomination for Film Editing but be a possible nominee for five other categories including Best Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.
Toni Erdmann is suggested as a Best Foreign Language Film nominee as well as a possibility for Original Screenplay.
Neruda would be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film.
The Eagle Huntress would be a Best Doc nominee with Fire at Sea a possibility.
The Awards Watch Telluride tally would be 33 nominations with an additional 14 possibilities.
Welcome to the next the third Monday in October...
A MASTER PASSES
Pierre Etaix in The Dardennes' Le Havre-TFF #38-2011
Film aficionados from around the world paused in sadness this week as French film comedy master Pierre Etaix died Indiewire reported on Friday. Etaix was one of Telluride's tribute recipients in 2011. Etaix won an Oscar in 1963 for his short film Happy Anniversary. Etaix was venerated by film makers from Jerry Lewis to Woody Allen and is frequently compared to Chaplin, Keaton and Tati.
Here's the text from TFF's 2011 program about Etaix and the tribute:
OSCAR BIZ BUZZ: BUSINESS INSIDER, VARIETY LOOKS AT FOREIGN AND AWARDS DAILY UPDATES
As we count down the second half of October, we're beginning to finally see the plans studios have for their Oscar possibles. We learned, for example, just this past week that 20th Century Fox has dated Hidden Figures for a limited (and therefore Oscar qualifying release) on Dec. 25th.
We also found out that Martin Scorsese has trimmed the running time for Silence , which was originally going to run over three hours, to a meager 2 hrs. 39 min. Reportedly more than a half an hour of the original cut has disappeared. Wow. That's a lot of film to have been edited out.
Ang Lee's much anticipated Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk received decidedly mixed reviews at its premiere at the New York Film Festival. A lot of Oscary types think that it's probably toast in the major categories but Awards Daily's Sasha Stone says "not so fast" reminding everyone that Lee's Life of Pi also opened to mixed responses and was discounted by Oscar pundits and ended up with 11 nominations and four wins.
In as afar as Oscar Biz Buzz that relates to Telluride films this week, I offer the following...
Business Insiders Entertainment section offered their take on what they believe are the most likely Oscar winners in several categories at the midpoint of October. To wit:
Best Picture: La La Land. Also in contention according to BI: Arrival, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Sully.
Best Director: Damien Chazelle/La La Land. Others in the mix: Eastwood/Sully, Jenkins/Moonlight, Lonergan/Manchester, and Villenueve/Arrival
Best Actress: Emma Stone/La La Land. Also in play from TFF #43: Amy Adams/Arrival
Best Actor: Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea. In the running: Ryan Gosling/La La Land, Tom Hanks/Sully
Supporting Actress: Naomie Harris/Moonlight. Also in play: Michelle Williams/Manchester
Supporting Actor: Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals. TFFers: Mahershala Ali/Moonlight
Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water. TFF #43 peeps: Chazelle/La La Land, Jenkins and
McCraney/Moonlight and Lonergan/Manchester
Adapted Screenplay: Lion. BI lists no TFF candidates for Adapted Screenplay although I think they're overlooking Eric Heisserer fro Arrival.
Animated Feature: Zootopia. Nada from TFF.
Cinematography: Billy Lynn. TFF possibles; La La Land, Moonlight, Arrival
Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America. Telluride docs in the mix: Into the Inferno and The Eagle Huntress
Also in the Oscar Biz Buzz today...Variety's Guy Lodge takes an impressive deep look at the possible players for Best Foreign Language Film. He does make mention of the three TFF #43 films that have the best shot at making the final five: Toni Erdmann, Neruda and Fire at Sea. Check Lodge's assessment here.
And, as she always does, Sasha Stone at Awards Daily put up her latest Oscar assessment of Friday. Her focus this week was on the Best Actor race. Look at Sasha's latest Oscar musings here.
TELLURIDE FILMMAKERS IN NY
I have appended a couple of interviews that have occurred as a result of TFF #43 films that have played at the New York Film Festival over the past two weeks. Two form Moonlight's writer/director Barry Jenkins and another from Manchester by the Sea writer/director Kenneth Lonergan;
I posted the first set of Film Awards Clearinghouse predictions for the four most major Oscar categories three weeks ago. Now, 21 days later and with the New York Film Festival winding down, I thought it would be good to update where the race seems to be.
I have used the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following pundits:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Greg Ellwood/The Playlist-Awards Campaign
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
The number in parenthesis is the position the film held three weeks ago.
TFF #43 films are inBold.
BEST PICTURE
1) La La Land (1)
2) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (2) 3) Manchester by the Sea (3)
4) Fences (5) 5) Moonlight (8)
6) Silence (4)
7) Lion (6)
8) Jackie (10) 9) Arrival (9)
10) Loving (9) 11) Sully (11)
12) 20th Century Women (NR)
Dropping Out: Hidden Figures
Hot: Moonlight, Jackie, 20th Century Women
Not: Silence, Loving
Comment: Barry Jenkins' Moonlight is the biggest mover of any film in either direction. If the nominations were announced today, it has moved from "barely probable" to a much more solid position. La La Land has actually solidified its grasp of the top spot. Call the top eight films "likely" nominees with the 9-12 spots as possibles.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Damien Chazelle/La La Land (1)
2) Ang Lee/Billy Lynn (2) 3) Kenneth Lonergan/Manchester (4)
4) Martin Scorsese/Silence (3) 5) Barry Jenkins/Moonlight (5)
6) Pablo Larrain/Jackie (10)
7) Denzel Washington/Fences (6) 8) Denis Villenueve/Arrival (8)
9) Garth Davis/Lion (9)
10) Jeff Nichols/Loving (7)
Hot: Larrain
Not: Nichols
Comment: No switch outs among the top ten but a big charge for Pablo Larrain. Larrain could also be a nominee for Best Foreign Language Film for Neruda and I don't think that has ever happened in Oscar history (see below)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Emma Stone/La La Land (1)
2) Natalie Portman/Jackie (3)
3) Viola Davis/Fences (2)
4) Annette Bening/20th Century Women (6)
5) Ruth Negga/Loving (4)
Dropping Out: Emily Blunt/The Girl on the Train
Hot: Bening
Not: Blunt
Comment: Still thought to be the toughest category. Viola Davis continues to be rumored as a possible candidate for Supporting Actress instead of lead.
BEST ACTOR
1) Casey Affleck/Manchester by the Sea (1)
2) Denzel Washington/Fences 3) Ryan Gosling/La La Land (3) 4) Tom Hanks/Sully (5)
5) Joel Edgerton/Loving (4)
6) Dev Patel/Lion (7)
7) Andrew Garfield/Silence (6)
8) Michael Keaton/The Founder (8)
9) Viggo Mortensen/Captain Fantastic (NR)
10) (Tie) Jake Gyllenhaal/Nocturnal Animals (NR) and
Ben Affleck/Live by Night (NR)
Dropping Out: Gordon-Levitt/Snowden and Alwyn/Billy Lynn
Hot: Gyllenhaal and B. Affleck as well as Mortensen
Not: See the "dropping Out" list above.
Comment: This looks like a real race between Casey and Denzel. It's the tightest bunching of the top two from any of these categories.
Should these predictions hold for TFF #43 films...
La La Land would be nominated in all four categories.
Manchester by the Sea in three.
Moonlight in two.
Sully in one.
Other possibles: Arrival for three and Sully for an additional nomination.
Also, not to put too fine a point on it, TFF #43 films would win in all four categories.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMS REACH RECORD
Arecord number of 85 films have been submitted for Oscar consideration for the Foreign Language category. Included in the submissions were these Telluride 2016 films:
Neruda/Chile
Toni Erdmann/Germany
Fire at Sea/Italy
Other major players include films that I thought, at least at some point, might play Telluride:
It's Only the End of the World/Canada
Elle/France
The Salesman/Iran
Sand Storm/Israel
Desierto/Mexico
Ma' Rosa/Philippines
Sieranevada/Romania
Julieta/Spain
My Life as a Zucchini/Switzerland
Variety awards co-editor and founder of InContention, Kristopher Tapley posted a meditation this week on this year's Best Actress Oscar race. as I mentioned above, it's regarded as one of the toughest races in years. As you can see above, there are a number of TFF #43 actresses in the conversation: Stone and Adams. Isabelle Huppert is also mentioned for Things to Come in addition to Elle and we shouldn't rule out Rooney Mara for Una.
The New York Film Festival opened over the weekend with Ava DuVernay's documentary 13th as the opening night film. NYFF will run through Oct. 16th and will double up on a number of films that played at TFF #43 including: Fire at Sea, Graduation, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Neruda. Things to Come and Toni Erdmann among their Main Slate presentations. Here is the complete NYFF Main Slate lineup.
Additionally, in its Retrospective section you will find Bertrand Tavernier's Journey Through French Cinema which also played TFF #43.
Tavernier and Journey Through French Cinema was recently profiled in this piece from Variety.
Other Telluride 2016 selections playing in NYFF are included in its Spotlight on Documentary section. Included there from Telluride are: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography, Bright Lights; Starring Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher and I Called Him Morgan.
MAUDIE HAS A HOME
A small film at Telluride that gained some notoriety and a bit of buzz for Sally Hawkins' performance was Aisling Walsh's Maudie about real life artist Maud Walsh. As a matter of fact, TFF filmgoers rated the film in MTFB's People's Telluride ratings at a very respectable 4.29 (out of 5) and it finished as the third highest rated film of this year's fest only trailing current Oscar buzzy films La La Land and Moonlight.
The film played T-ride without having been picked up for domestic distribution but that changed over the weekend as Sony Pictures Classics announced that they had grabbed the rights to the film.
There's no word yet on whether SPC is planning to release the film this year but there is plenty of speculation that they might to get Hawkins into the conversation for the Best Actress Oscar. However, that field is crowded this year.
SCREEN TALK
As the New York Fest gets underway, Indiewire's Anne Thompson and Eric Kohn take aim at the films playing there in the context of the Oscar race with a special focus in this week's podcast on Oscar and film diversity. Figuring into their conversation is Barry Jenkin's Telluride selection Moonlight. Check out the latest version of ScreenTalk here.
That'll be a wrap for Monday. More on Thursday!
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
This is your last Thursday in September 2016...hope it's a good one!
THE FAC LOOKS AT SUPPORTING ACTING AND SCREENPLAY OSCAR CATEGORIES
The Film Awards Clearinghouse is back this Thursday with a look at the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories for Oscar glory as well as the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories. As always, The FAC uses the publicly available Oscar predictions from the following experts:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
After crunching the most recent data available, The FAC says that these are your front runners...
TFF #43 films are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Naomie Harris/Moonlight 2) Michelle Williams/Manchester by the Sea
3) Nicole Kidman/Lion
4) Kristen Stewart/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5) Olivia Spencer/Hidden Figures
6) Greta Gerwig/20th Century Women
7) Lupita N'yong'o/The Queen of Katwe
8) Felicity Jones/A Monster Calls
9) Margo Martindale/The Hollars
10) Helen Mirren/Eye in the Sky
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Liam Neeson/Silence
2) Hugh Grant/Florence Foster Jenkins 3) Mahershala Ali/Moonlight 4) Lucas Hedges/Manchester by the Sea
5) Michael Shannon/Nocturnal Animals
6) Jeff Bridges/Hell or High Water
7) Stephen Henderson/Fences 8) Aaron Eckhardt/Bleed for This
9) Peter Sarsgaard/Jackie
10) Steve Martin/Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
2) Fences
3) Silence
4) Lion 5) Arrival
6) Hidden Figures
7) Nocturnal Animals
8) Love and Friendship 9) Sully
10) Live by Night
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Manchester by the Sea 2) La La Land 3) Moonlight
4) Loving
5) Jackie
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) Florence Foster Jenkins
10) Captain Fantastic
Telluride analysis:
These categories, if the FAC were 100% accurate, would result in:
3 additional nominations for Moonlight
3 additional nominations for Manchester by the Sea
1 additional nomination for La La Land
1 additional nomination for Arrival
with Sully and Bleed for This adding an additional possible nomination.
The major eight categories when added to last week's First FAC for Best Picture, Director, Actress and Actor give us the following totals:
6 nominations for Manchester by the Sea (Picture, Actor, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay)
5 nominations for La La Land (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay)
5 nominations for Moonlight (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay)
1 nomination for Arrival (Adapted Screenplay) with a chance at 3 more
No nominations for Sully but it's in the convo for a possible 3 nominations
1 possible nomination for Bleed for This
Overall, that's 17 nominations for TFF #43 films with another 7 possibilities and, of course, The FAC won't begin to look at other categories for some time yet but expect some additional nominations for TFF #43 films their as well. As a matter of fact, if you made me, I'd guess that La La Land is going to end up in double digit nominations and will probably be the nomination leader when those are announced on Jan. 24th.
FIRE AT SEA HAS A U.S. TRAILER
Fire at Sea (Fuocoammare) Gianfranco Rosi's Golden Bear/Berlin award winning documentary about the European refugee crisis and which played at TFF #43 a few weeks ago has a new U.S. trailer. The film is set for U.S. release on Oct. 21 in a limited fashion and then will expand from that point. Fire at Sea is being distributed by Kino Lorber. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
Alejandro Inarritu has had a strong relationship with cinematographer Ernest Lubezki (Birdman, The Revenant) as well as a real love affair with Telluride (Babel, Biutiful, Birdman) so when a new project is announced involving Inarritu and Lubezki, Telluride fans should take notice.
Which is to say, that the two visionaries have just announced plans to work on a virtual reality short film that would be centered on the crossing of immigrants from Mexico into the United States.
The project doesn't yet have a title but that's of little import. Of greater interest is the question of whether Inarritu returns to T-ride after having missed the fest last year when The Revenant was not ready for a Labor Day rollout.
Here is my weekly update focused on what appear to be the most probable films to play the 43rd Telluride Film Festival.
Last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
15) Defying the Nazis (Ken Burns PBS Doc)
14) High Summer (Animated short)
13) The Red Turtle
12) Manchester by the Sea
11) Moonlight
10) Fire at Sea
9) Maudie
8) Frantz
7) Una
6) Things to Come
5) Neruda
4) Bleed for This
3) Arrival
2) La La Land
1) Toni Erdmann
And here is this week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
20) Journey Through French Cinema
19) Defying the Nazis
18) The B-Side
17) Into the Inferno
16) Julieta
15) Graduation
14) High Summer
13) Manchester by the Sea
12) Maudie
11) Una
10) Frantz
9) The Red Turtle
8) Fire at Sea
7) Moonlight
6) Bleed for This
5) Neruda
4) Things to Come
3) La La Land
2) Toni Erdmann
1) Arrival
Still in play: The Circle, The Promise. Miss Sloane. Hidden Figures, The Sense of an Ending, Exile, Peshmerga, Gold, Norman, Eternity, The Beautiful Days of Aranjuez, The Founder
MOONLIGHT TRAILER IMPRESSES
As I mentioned here yesterday, Barry Jenkins Moonlight (A24) got a trailer release late yesterday morning. Here it is from YouTube:
The response to the trailer was nothing short of rapturous. We may have a serious stealth Oscar player. Here's coverage of the trailer drop:
Despite The PLaylist's claim that the film is world premiering in Toronto, I'm still relatively confident it will actually screen at Telluride first. The story below underscores my belief.
TORONTO PLATFORM LINEUP PROVIDES CLUES
Toronto's International Film Festival revealed their competitive young film makers Platform section yesterday. Included in the list of films were two that have been on the TFF #43 radar. Pablo Larrain's Jackie, which I had concluded will not be making the trip from Venice to T-ride was listed as a North American Premiere thus buttressing my conclusion.
Barry Jenkins Moonlight was also named to the section and listed as an International Premiere, which, I believe indicates a film's first play outside its nation of origin which comports perfectly with a Telluride screening.
The complete Platform lineup and film descriptions are here:
